Shows
Red Flags RisingAll-In on America's AI Action PlanMike and Brent go All-In regarding America’s AI Action Plan, unveiled by the White House on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, and discussed in detail at a forum the same day co-sponsored by the All-In Podcast and the Hill & Valley Forum.Mike and Brent discuss how these developments relate to the “Moment of Truth” discussed in Episode 20 (00:31), the Three Pillars of America’s AI Action Plan (01:07), how the Three Pillars relate to their recent BRG ThinkSet magazine article (01:45), the commercial opportunity presented by full-stack AI export privileges under the AI Action Plan and how the “stack sweeps” previewed on Episode 19 a...2025-07-2825 min
Red Flags Rising"Secondary Tariffs" with Tom FoxMike and Brent were honored guests on the FCPA Compliance Report podcast with their podfather, Tom Fox, the Voice of Compliance and founder of the Compliance Podcast Network. They discuss the concept of “secondary tariffs” recently threatened by the U.S. as to Russia’s trading partners (00:44), what would such secondary tariffs as to Russia really mean, and for whom (03:21), how multinational companies should start thinking through the impact of these potential tariffs (04:37), the need to be very, very, very careful about schemes that seem too good to be true (because they are) (06:03), how risk-based compliance can help multinationals evalua...2025-07-2322 min
Red Flags RisingChina, AI, and Export Controls - Facing a Moment of TruthMike and Brent follow-up on Episode 19’s discussion of “stack sweeps” with a discussion of the current “moment of truth” facing trade compliance teams dealing with high-probability, catch-all enforcement risks as explained in their recent WorldECR (Issue No. 141, July/August 2025) and Dow Jones Risk Journal article, “Anticipating the moment of truth: how to prepare for ‘high probability’ catch-all enforcement.” Specifically, they discuss the recent decision by the U.S. to allow (licensed) sales of certain advanced integrated circuits to China (00:42), their WorldECR/DJRJ article and how the Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) guidance of May 13, 2025, which emphasized the “high probability” standar...2025-07-2032 min
Red Flags RisingStack Sweeps, Successor Liability, and “Knowledge” – Emerging Signals from Recent Enforcement ActionsMike & Brent coin a new phrase in the context of white-collar corporate enforcement, “stack sweep,” to describe the potential enforcement risks--up and down the technology stack--that recent U.S. export controls settlements, policy statements, and guidance portend in focusing on broad end-use or end-user “catch-all” provisions that turn on “knowledge” defined to include “an awareness of a high probability.” Specifically, they discuss how two recent cases are short on facts but long on lessons (or, as Brent says, appear at first glance to be “dogs”) (01:07), discuss the Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOS) settlement announced July 2, 2025 (03:19), how reliance on the advice of counsel is as use...2025-07-1127 min
Red Flags RisingFRESH LOOKS - Monitoring What MattersMike and Brent propose a new framework for post-resolution third-party independent consultants imposed under corporate resolutions with the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) or monitors imposed under resolutions with the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) National Security Division (NSD) that best promotes underlying national security objectives while also minimizing the impact on the resolving company’s business. Their proposal is based on their prior “Fresh Looks” article with the NYU Law School’s Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement (PCCE), “Monitoring What Matters: A Fresh Look Proposal to Government and Industry for How Post-Resolution Oversight Can Best Deny...2025-06-2929 min
Red Flags RisingData-Driven Root-Cause Analysis with Erika Trujillo of SEIAMike & Brent welcome Erika Trujillo, Managing Director of SEIA (“say-a”), who with her company brings advanced data analytics solutions to solving trade compliance problems. Mike and Brent discuss Erika’s background and the services SEIA provides (00:14); how advanced data analytics can help with export controls risk assessments by, among other things, bringing to bear data from across multiple departments (which is particularly important under U.S. law’s collective knowledge doctrine and the “high probability” standard) (02:10); the importance of differentiating between your company’s “internal data” and the “external data” and of identifying and leveraging what internal data might be sitting within reac...2025-06-2125 min
Red Flags RisingThe Israel-Iran Conflict's Implications for U.S. Export ControlsMike and Brent follow-up on Mike’s being quoted in Dow Jones Risk Journal regarding the unexpected export control consequences of the Israel-Iran conflict. They discuss the geopolitical context (00:39), the article by Richard Vanderford and Mengqi Sun (01:22), the risk that Iran tries to evade U.S. export controls (and sanctions) by procuring replacement parts and equipment through third-party intermediaries (02:12), the cautionary tale of an Alabama resident sentenced to five years in U.S. federal prison for diverting items to Iran (03:29), the need to be cognizant of “catch-all” U.S. export controls related to ballistic missiles and WMD programs (including nuclea...2025-06-1813 min
Red Flags RisingTom Blass of WorldECR Magazine & Dow Jones on Bridging the Law/Geopolitics Divide and Building CommunitiesMike and Brent welcome Tom Blass, Editorial Director of World Export Controls Review (WorldECR) Magazine that is now part of Dow Jones. Mike and Brent discuss with Tom how he and Mark Cusick started WorldECR more than a decade ago to help bridge the gap between law and geopolitics in sanctions and export controls (00:36), the recent acquisition of WorldECR by Dow Jones (04:43), some of the particular challenges Tom and Mark faced in getting WorldECR off the ground (06:30), their realization that they were creating a community (07:12), what Tom has observed in terms of geopolitics and how geopolitics have driven regulatory...2025-06-1026 min
Red Flags RisingGetting a Grip on U.S. Export Controls GuidanceMike and Brent unpack the May 13, 2025, due diligence guidance from the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security. They describe what happened on May 13 (00:00), the guidance from BIS on General Prohibition 10 and Huawei Ascend chips (03:34), the related BIS policy statement (04:13), and then focus on the BIS “Industry Guidance to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Computing Integrated Circuits” (04:47), specifically the underlying U.S. national security concerns (05:50), relevant key takeaways from Episode 13’s special guest Dana W. White (06:51), the significance of the Industry Guidance’s reference to the WMD and military-intelligence catch-all provisions (08:29), the historical pre-1993 “KYC Guidance” cross-referenced by BIS in the new Industry...2025-05-3123 min
Red Flags RisingDana W. White on U.S. National Security & Export ControlsMike and Brent welcome Dana W. White, Managing Partner at the Juno Collective, to share her thoughts and analysis regarding China and U.S. export controls based on her long career of public service in a variety of national security-related roles. Mike, Brent, and Dana discuss Dana’s national security background (00:49), what happens “behind the scenes” that leads to U.S. agencies determining national security threats exists (02:28), how knowledge-sharing is both the strength and the Achilles’ heel of free societies (06:11), how U.S. businesses and business leaders play an important part in our national security (07:26), the challenge of finding reliable...2025-05-2922 min
Red Flags RisingEnd-Use and End-User Catch-AllsIn a timely episode discussing end-use and end-user controls and how the full definition of “knowledge”--to include “an awareness of a high probability”--runs through those controls, Mike starts by summarizing key developments on May 13, 2025, right before publication, specifically issuance that day of three key guidance documents by the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) on exactly these topics in the context of advanced computing integrated circuits, Huawei, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and data centers (00:00). Mike and Brent then discuss the end-use and end-user catch-all provisions and why they are often overlooked (02:31), how those catch-all provisions apply to...2025-05-1429 min
Red Flags RisingPoint-Counterpoint - U.S. Export Controls PolicyMike & Brent return with a point-counterpoint episode on U.S. export control policy. After discussing the latest news about U.S. AI export controls (01:03), they discuss the points and counterpoints related to whether we should have export controls at all (04:57), the relevance of the national security justifications offered by the U.S. Department of Commerce in promulgating its regulations (06:52), the lessons of Ukraine battlefield recoveries (09:59), the views of Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei, on risk and how to push any industry to a more-compliance mindset (rather than acquiesce to the race to the bottom) (10:44), why Brent shouldn’t talk abou...2025-05-1225 min
Red Flags RisingAI Diffusion: A Proposed Path for Industry & GovernmentMike & Brent propose an AI Diffusion Rule path forward to help both companies and the U.S. government. They start with an update on last-minute reporting before the episode was published (00:00) then cover the attention the AI Diffusion Rule is getting before its May 15, 2025 compliance date (03:56), the Rule’s similarity’s to the First World War’s “rationing system” for export controls (08:08), a report by Barath Harithas of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) about the AI Diffusion Rule (09:15), how the AI Diffusion Rule incorporates by reference for companies in Tier 2 countries several new U.S. inbound and outbound r...2025-05-0126 min
Red Flags RisingTariffs: Navigating Uncertainty & Mitigating Enforcement RiskMike & Brent jump into tariffs to focus on practical strategies to navigate these uncertain times and to mitigate the risk of future enforcement actions. Specifically, they discuss what longer-term geopolitical trends help businesses to plot a strategy despite being whipsawed by tariff news each day (01:57), a recent and helpful Foreign Affairs article, by Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz of the Center for a New American Security (03:21), the recent book "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" by Edward Fishman and his description of the "impossible triad" between economic interdependence, economic security, and geopolitical competition (04:21), relevant historical background...2025-04-2421 min
Red Flags RisingResponding to Congressional InquiriesMike & Brent react to recent media reports of several congressional committees demanding information from U.S. companies. They revisit their March 14, 2024, NYU PCCE blog post, "“Expect Some Illumination”: A Fresh Look at U.S. Congressional Hearings in the Era of Sanctions and Export Controls as the New FCPA" (01:21), then discuss common pitfalls to avoid when providing information to Congress, including the importance of thinking critically about how your data could be interpreted and used by Congress (02:28), how information provided by Congress can be shared across the U.S. federal government (03:38), the danger of being distracted by political theater (04:13), the valu...2025-04-1819 min
Red Flags RisingClarity from Chaos: U.S. Export Controls Enforcement Signals & What to Do About ThemMike & Brent connect the dots between the Administration's signals regarding U.S. export control enforcement, recent media reports, and how trade compliance teams can best prepare for what comes next. They discuss the overall climate of uncertainty (01:03), an April 8, 2025 report by Reuters about a potential large U.S. export controls fine in the works (01:35), how companies can best respond to a counterparty being put on the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security's "Entity List" (05:47), how to respond to U.S. government outreach or administrative subpoenas (07:27), an April 10, 2025 report by Export Compliance Daily about a potential uptick in administrative subpoenas (11:39...2025-04-1521 min
Red Flags RisingFRESH LOOKS - Export Controls Risk AssessmentsMike & Brent return to their prior "Fresh Looks" series to highlight their September 28, 2023, post on NYU Law School's Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement blog, Know Your Customer, But Also Yourself: A Fresh Look at Sanctions & Export Controls Risk Assessments in the Era of the “New FCPA”. Mike & Brent discuss the post's inspiration (01:22), the importance of conducting risk assessments that are both holistic and dynamic (03:20), how such risk assessments help companies and internal trade compliance professionals (07:44), the collective knowledge doctrine (09:41), the importance of the "battlefield effect" (10:22), the role for boards of directors and c-suite management (13:41), and conclude with the next inst...2025-04-1120 min
Red Flags RisingThe Knowledge "Glass Onion" for U.S. Export ControlsMike & Brent update listeners on the America First Trade Policy Section 4(c) Report Executive Summary (01:05) before previewing their forthcoming "Glass Onion" article in WorldECR magazine about the various layers of the "knowledge" standard under the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (03:18), including "actual knowledge" (07:23), "reason to know" (08:44), and "awareness of a high probability" (09:39). Mike & Brent then discuss relevant guidance from the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (12:44), parallels to U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enforcement (13:30), how the "high probability" standard is becoming the new national security enforcement paradigm (14:56), and key takeaways for trade compliance professionals (16:49) before wrapping up with...2025-04-0820 min
Red Flags RisingFRESH LOOKS - Export Controls PenaltiesIn Episode 4, Mike and Brent revisit another of their prior "Fresh Looks" posts on the NYU Law School's Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement ("PCCE") blog. This one concerns export control penalties and what to make of recent statements attributed to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Undersecretary Jeffrey Kessler. Mike and Brent discuss the context for the original November 14, 2023, post (00:30), how historical FCPA penalties compared to U.S. export controls penalties prior to the April 2023 Seagate resolution (01:26), what current official statements and enforcement trends mean for c-suites and boards (02:59), a recent Export Compliance Daily article regarding internal BIS discussions about...2025-04-0315 min
Red Flags RisingFRESH LOOKS - Loopholes and Liability PitfallsMike & Brent revisit Brent's original August 25, 2023, "Fresh Looks" post, "When Loopholes Create Liability Pitfalls: A Fresh Look at Export Controls." They discuss what inspired Brent to write the article (00:40), the Inspur Group controversy (05:38), what legacy perspectives were missing about the compliance and enforcement risks (08:25), parallels to U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enforcement (12:16), why Mike initially hated Brent's article (13:19), how the risks that Brent highlighted in August 2023 are still relevant today (17:29), the key takeaways for trade compliance professionals (18:29), and the return by popular demand of Brent Carlson's "Managing Up" segment on what trade compliance should explain to stakeholders, management...2025-03-2122 min
Red Flags RisingLutnick: "We Have Had Enough"Mike and Brent discuss remarks at the Bureau of Industry & Security's "Update" Conference that started today in Washington, DC (00:00), specifically Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick's statement that he would take a hard line against China (02:18), including a "dramatic increase" in enforcement (04:01) and fines (13:45). In the returning segment "Brent Carlson's Managing-Up," Brent identifies key takeaways for trade compliance professionals to share with stakeholders, management, and boards (15:31).The New York Times' initial report by Ana Swanson about Secretary Lutnick's statements is here: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/18/us/trump-president-news/acce989e-9c02-50cc-9b32-9df39624fd77?smid...2025-03-1817 min
Red Flags RisingDeepSeek's Deep Impact on Export ControlsIn the launch of Red Flags Rising, Mike and Brent explain the concept and purpose of the pod (00:00), a recent report by Gregory C. Allen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies on "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race" (linked below) (01:43), the report's emphasis on backing strong regulations with strong enforcement (04:49) and the recently rediscovered "high probability" knowledge standard under the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (06:50), whether and how the Commerce Department's enforcement capability is impacted by recent policy and personnel decisions (11:00), parallels to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices...2025-03-1425 min
Red Flags RisingTeaser TrailerTeaser trailer for the new Red Flags Rising podcast!2025-03-1401 min