Shows
GD POLITICSMamdani Is In, Marjorie Is OutEven in our topsy turvy political world, last Friday stood out as one for the books. President Trump seemed to embrace New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, complimenting his underdog victory, saying he thinks “he’s going to do some things that are going to be really great,” and even smilingly saying that it’s ok if Mamdani calls him a fascist.Just hours later, one of Trump’s formerly fiercest defenders, Marjorie Taylor Greene, announced that she will resign from Congress in the new year, after disagreements with Trump led him to brand her “Marjorie Traitor Greene” and...
2025-11-2455 min
Decision Desk HQ PodcastEpisode 7: Redistricting Turbulence in Texas and Elsewhere, with Nathaniel Rakich from VotebeatOne of the leading stories this year has been mid-decade redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump began encouraging Republican-run states to create more favorable congressional maps for the GOP, starting with Texas. Democrats have responded with their own redistricting moves, including a redraw in California via the voter-approved Proposition 50. This week, the redistricting saga encountered its latest twist when a federal judicial panel blocked Texas’s new map, ruling it an illegal racial gerrymander — a decision that Texas Republicans have appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.To review the redistricting drama we’v...
2025-11-2054 min
GD POLITICSDemocrats Had A Great NightDemocrats swept the bigs races across the country on Tuesday night and many of the not-so-big races as well. They over-performed their polls in Virginia and New Jersey and Zohran Mamdani may be on track to secure an outright majority in the mayoral election in New York City. The victory for Proposition 50 in California was also resounding.In this late-night edition of the GD POLITICS podcast, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, and Lenny Bronner joined me (after a five hour livestream, no less) to break down the results of the evening and what they do or don’t po...
2025-11-0533 min
GD POLITICSElection Night 2025: What To Watch And WhenWe now have GD merch! You can find hats, tees, and totes here.Election Day 2025 is just about upon us. In a matter of hours New York City will elect a new mayor, Virginia and New Jersey will elect new governors, and California will decide whether to gerrymander its congressional maps. Millions of Americans across the country will also cast ballots in local elections.We’ve got a lot cooking at the GD POLITICS pod, so let me share the game plan. Today’s podcast is a tick tock of what to expect on election nigh...
2025-11-0339 min
GD POLITICSJimmy Kimmel Reaction And A Government Shutdown DebateThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player by following the directions here.On today’s podcast we talk about two shutdowns: the indefinite preemption of Jimmy Kimmel Live! and the possibility that Democrats will shut the government down at the end of the month.Wednesday night Jimmy Kimmel went the way of FiveThirtyEight (at least for now), when ABC preempted hi...
2025-09-1828 min
GD POLITICSDemocrats Are Cleaning Up In Special ElectionsTuesday is Election Day in Virginia’s 11th congressional district. Call it an amuse bouche for Virginia’s statewide elections this November.The special election, following Democrat Gerry Connolly’s death in office, isn’t expected to be competitive. Harris won the district by 34 percentage points, but it gives us one more data point to assess how the parties are doing in special elections. So far this year, Democrats are over-performing by double digits.On today’s podcast we also discuss Friday’s job numbers and whether they’ll add to Americans’ pessimism about Trump’s handling of the...
2025-09-081h 00
GD POLITICSCalifornia Gerrymandering, AI Polling, And UkraineThe video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.The gerrymandering wars are continuing apace. Texas Democratic legislators are returning to their state this week after leaving in order to block a Republican attempt to redraw the state’s congressional maps. Their return means Texas Republicans can move forward with their gerrymandered maps, which aim to add five Republicans to the state’s congressional ranks.California Governor Gavin Newsom has kicked off his own retaliatory gambit, attempting to add five seats to the Democratic roster in his state, with new maps that will...
2025-08-1853 min
On the BallotTexas Redistricting Battle Spreads NationwideOn this episode: Texas lawmakers are considering mid-decade changes to the state’s congressional map after President Donald Trump called for them to create five additional Republican-leaning districts. In response, some Democratic legislators have left the state to block a quorum, delaying a vote. To help bring you up to speed, we this episode features two interviews: First, Texas Tribune reporter Eleanor Klibanoff details the actions taken by both parties, including fines, legal measures, and debates over “coalition districts” under the Voting Rights Act.And in the second half of the show, independent election analyst Nathani...
2025-08-1430 min
GD POLITICSTrump's Slide Probably Isn't About EpsteinThe video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.If you scan some of the latest headlines, it looks like President Trump is finally facing the scandal that will do him in: “Trump Fumes at Epstein Mess as Polls Reveal Big GOP Revolt,” reads The New Republic. “Donald Trump Suffers Major Polling Blow Over Jeffrey Epstein Files,” reads Newsweek.The Epstein story has indeed had some staying power and Trump’s approval rating has also been sliding, but is it “Good Data, Bad Data or Not Data” to draw a connection between the two? We answer...
2025-07-2149 min
GD POLITICSThe Political Consequences Of The Bill Formerly Known As OBBBAI’ve been doing the podcast rounds this week, chatting with the folks at The Bulwark and Raging Moderates. If you heard me there and are new to this podcast, I want to say a big welcome! I’m glad you’re here! For regular listeners who want to hear me spout off, you can find some of that spouting in those feeds.I also talked to Gabe Fleisher of Waking Up To Politics in a live Substack chat on Wednesday and you’re gonna hear part of that conversation in this episode. For context, Gabe is 23 and has...
2025-07-0346 min
GD POLITICSCancelvania Is Becoming A Swing StateThe video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.If you find the title of this episode confusing, the cold open should help clear things up. I believe it’s the longest cold open I’ve ever done for a podcast. Enjoy!On a more serious note, we’ve got an awful lot to talk about today. I had originally planned to open up the mailbag and answer listener questions (which we still do), but before we get to that, Nathaniel Rakich and I talk about some of the news since the last e...
2025-06-161h 00
The Inside Elections PodcastEpisode 48: Congressional Baseball Game Preview (and the fight for the Senate Majority) w/ Nathaniel RakichNathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathaniel Rakich (formerly of FiveThirtyEight) preview the upcoming annual congressional baseball game for charity between Republicans and Democrats and analyze the key Senate race in Iowa that could impact which party controls the Senate in 2026 and could give Democrats a star pitcher in upcoming baseball games. In addition, Jacob makes a book recommendation, Nathaniel reveals how to get into the Supreme Court, and Nathan confesses an unpopular opinion about not liking one of the country’s most popular music artists.Twitter profiles: @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin @baseballot ...
2025-06-1049 min
National Journal RadioNational Journal Radio Episode 80: Let's Play BallWith this year's Congressional Baseball Game taking place at Nationals Park on Wednesday, Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado brings on the leading expert on the history of the game, Nathaniel Rakich of Baseballot. They discuss Democrats' losing streak, the players to watch, and how torpedo bats could impact the game. Follow Nathaniel's baseball and political insights on X, Bluesky, and on Baseballot.
2025-06-0932 min
GD POLITICSThe Pope And The SenateAmerica got its first pope! I was sitting next to one of about 30 Indiana University study abroad students on my flight back from Madrid on Saturday and my seat mate told me that her whole dorm was live streaming the smoke from the Sistine Chapel. As she recounted, everyone went crazy when “America won.” You love to see it!I’m not just interested in the pope as part of this podcast’s religious community revival agenda (I kid). I’m interested in the pope because for the first time ever, he is a registered voter in Illinois...
2025-05-1346 min
GD POLITICSThe Farewell Podcast We Never RecordedThe video version of this podcast is available to paid subscribers here.Nathaniel Rakich, Mary Radcliffe and I say goodbye to FiveThirtyEight (and talk about Gavin Newsom's podcast). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe
2025-04-1039 min
Beyond the Polls with Henry OlsenHow Data Nerds Earned Their Seat at the TableTragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit's inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behind complicated quantifications.
2025-03-1343 min
FiveThirtyEight PoliticsReaction Podcast: Trump Goes LongGalen speaks with Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe in this late night reaction to President Trump's address to Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2025-03-0532 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsThe 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days AwayGalen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public.They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad c...
2024-12-0239 min
Carry the TwoMathematics & PollingWe in the United States are deep in the middle of a major national election, and over half of the world’s population also have elections in 2024. This is why Carry the Two is going to focus on the intersection of mathematics and democracy for our new season.
In this, the sixth and final episode of our mathematics and democracy season, we dig into both how surveys and polls are conducted and how they are reported. For the former we are joined by David Dutwin Senior Vice President at NORC and Chief Scientist of Amerispeak and for th...
2024-10-3143 minThe Inside Elections PodcastEpisode 32: New North Carolina Poll, VP Debate, Polls and Election Models w/ Nathaniel Rakich of 538Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight.Twitter profiles: @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin @baseballot @InsideElections The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to...
2024-10-031h 10FiveThirtyEight PoliticsWhat Americans Think Of Kamala HarrisThe contours of the Harris-Trump race are coming further into focus. Vice President Kamala Harris just wrapped up a weeklong tour of the battleground states with her newly minted running mate and former President Donald Trump has been weighing in on all matter of topics on social media and in a lengthy press conference.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about the latest polling of the race, perceptions of the candidates and why some on the right are now taking...
2024-08-1239 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsJD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNCIn this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik join Galen to help make sense of the third night of the Republican National Convention. Plus: How should we interpret polls that show a majority of Democrats want President Joe Biden to step aside? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2024-07-1834 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsPresidential Immunity And More Debate FalloutSince Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit...
2024-07-0147 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsReaction Podcast: A Rough Debate For BidenGalen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2024-06-2829 minFiveThirtyEight Politics2024 Is Going To Be A Vibes ElectionLast week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how voters are are thinking about the issues of the economy and abortion access in 2024 and how that...
2024-06-1738 minNational Journal RadioNational Journal Radio Episode 54: Take Me Out to the BallgameOn Wednesday, the annual Congressional Baseball game will take place at Nationals Park where Democrats and Republicans will face off for a bicameral game for charity. Hotline Editor Kirk A. Bado brings on FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich to give the history behind the game and break down player statistics and team insights. Read Rakich's Congressional Baseball Game statistics here.
2024-06-1037 min
Slate NewsPolitical Gabfest: Will Trump’s Conviction Help Biden?This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the fallout from Donald Trump’s felony conviction; the spin-up for Hunter Biden’s trial; and the upshot for college speech from campus protests with Charles Homans. Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:Nathaniel Rakich for 538: Trump’s conviction may be hurting him – but it’s earlySarah Longwell in The Atlantic: The Two-Time Trump Voters Who Have Had EnoughDafydd Townley for The Conversation: Trump guilty verdict: the fallout for US democracyPolitico Magaz...
2024-06-0857 min
Political GabfestWill Trump’s Conviction Help Biden?This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the fallout from Donald Trump’s felony conviction; the spin-up for Hunter Biden’s trial; and the upshot for college speech from campus protests with Charles Homans. Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:Nathaniel Rakich for 538: Trump’s conviction may be hurting him – but it’s earlySarah Longwell in The Atlantic: The Two-Time Trump Voters Who Have Had EnoughDafydd Townley for The Conversation: Trump guilty verdict: the fallout for US democracyPolitico Magaz...
2024-06-0657 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsMr. Druke Goes to WashingtonThis installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik.They talk about the latest polling since former president Donald Trump's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush-money trial and President Joe Biden's decision to issue an executive order restricting asylum at the southern border. They also play a game of historical election trivia, drawing parallels from past elections to today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit...
2024-06-0644 min
Slate Crime and JusticePolitical Gabfest: Will Trump’s Conviction Help Biden?This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the fallout from Donald Trump’s felony conviction; the spin-up for Hunter Biden’s trial; and the upshot for college speech from campus protests with Charles Homans. Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:Nathaniel Rakich for 538: Trump’s conviction may be hurting him – but it’s earlySarah Longwell in The Atlantic: The Two-Time Trump Voters Who Have Had EnoughDafydd Townley for The Conversation: Trump guilty verdict: the fallout for US democracyPolitico Magaz...
2024-06-0657 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsReaction Podcast: Trump Found GuiltyOn Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2024-05-3133 minFiveThirtyEight Politics538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok...
2024-03-2156 min
Eyewitness News Extra TimeShowdown in New Hampshire; Oscar snubs and surprisesThe nation's first 2024 presidential primary takes place in New Hampshire, where former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are vying for votes to become the Republican nominee to take on President Joe Biden in November.As the last major challenger in Trump's way to the Republican nomination, Haley hopes New Hampshire voters feel so strongly about keeping the former president away from the White House that they turn out to support her in large numbers.Eyewitness News reporter Morgan Norwood joined Extra Time from Manchester...
2024-01-2430 min
Mike McConnell1-9-24 Mike McConnell in the MorningElection analyst Nathaniel Rakich joins the show to discuss the Iowa Caucus. Mike talks about the latest local and national headlines.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2024-01-0931 minOn the BallotFiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich: ‘24 Election + Tips to Read Polls like a ProOn this episode: In our final episode of the year, election analyst Nathaniel Rakich joins our host Victoria Rose to help us get ready for next year’s presidential election. Rakich shares some tips on understanding polling, chimes in on what the latest polling results might mean for the next few months, and explains why it’s too early for any of them to be truly predictive.
Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at onthe...
2023-12-2134 min
RedneckLouisiana a boj o Bílý dům. Proč liberálové pláčou?Americká Louisiana nepatří mezi státy, o kterých by se na druhém břehu Atlantiku mluvilo často. Zdejší guvernérské volby, které proběhly minulý víkend, jsou přesto podstatné. Kdo je Jeff Landry, který v nich zvítězil? Proč úspěch tohoto republikána už teď kreslí vrásky na čele zastupitelů z New Orleans? Proč byli dosud američtí demokraté optimističtí ohledně naději Joea Bidena na znovuzvolení a jak tyto naděje souvisí nejen s těmito lokálními volbami? To vše se dozvíte v dnešním Rednecku.Profil Jeffa Landryho od Piper Fr...
2023-10-1713 min
The DownballotWill McCarthy’s fall affect the 2024 battle for the House? w/ 538’s Nathaniel RakichIt’s been an unprecedented week in politics as (now former) Speaker Kevin McCarthy was booted out of the Speaker’s chair. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins us to break down the fallout, including how it might affect the 2024 race for the House and if McCarthy might resign and trigger a special election for his Congressional seat. We also talk about the good special election trends for Democrats this year and how to incorporate polling into your thinking about elections.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein and her app...
2023-10-0553 minFiveThirtyEight PoliticsOhio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly)Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about where the race stands and the broader trend of similar ballot measures.Galen also digs into the New York Times’s first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times's editor of news surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during the 2022 midt...
2023-08-071h 01FiveThirtyEight PoliticsJuly Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care?Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were broken across the globe. Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 31 days in a row of temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit and Sanbao, China, provisionally recorded the country’s all-time hottest temperature of 126 degrees.In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Anthony Leiserowitz, the director and founder of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, about public perceptions of climate change, how extreme weather shapes those views and whether it's shaping our politics.Galen also speaks with Kale...
2023-08-011h 05
The WritEp. #67: The U.S. midterm electionsIn the U.S. midterms on Tuesday, the Republicans are expected to take control of the House and the Democrats have little better than even odds of holding the Senate. But with rising polarization and election denialism, there’s more at stake in Tuesday’s vote than whether the red or blue team will come out ahead.Joining me on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Nathaniel breaks down the races to watch on Tuesday and together we discuss what sets America’s elections apart from those here in...
2022-11-0443 minThe Writ PodcastEp. #67: The U.S. midterm electionsIn the U.S. midterms on Tuesday, the Republicans are expected to take control of the House and the Democrats have little better than even odds of holding the Senate. But with rising polarization and election denialism, there’s more at stake in Tuesday’s vote than whether the red or blue team will come out ahead.Joining me on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Nathaniel breaks down the races to watch on Tuesday and together we discuss what sets America’s elections apart from those here in...
2022-11-0443 min
Política con-CienciaMidterms 2022 | ¿Qué va a pasar en USA?Bienvenidas, bienvenidos y bienvenides al episodio 50 de Política con-Ciencia. En unos días son las elecciones de mitad de mandato en Estados Unidos, hoy hablamos de lo que puede ocurrir en Congreso y Senado.
¡Nos escuchamos, Seijis!
Fuentes:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
Politics Podcast: The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022By FiveThirtyEight
We Watched 100+ Democratic TV Ads So You Don’t Have ToBy Nathaniel Rakich and Anna Rothschild
How Have The Georgia Polls Moved Since Herschel Walker’s Abortion Controversy? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/gop-house-2022/
2022-11-0444 minPolitical GabfestAre British Politics More Or Less Crazy Than Ours?This week, David Plotz, Emily Bazelon, and John Dickerson discuss the final midterm sprint; the latest British Prime Minister; and Trump’s legal troubles. Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:Adrian Wooldridge for Bloomberg: “Rishi Sunak Is a New and Old-Fashioned Tory”Barton Gellman for The Atlantic: “The Impeachment of Joe Biden”The Trump Tapes: Bob Woodward's Twenty Interviews with President Donald TrumpNathaniel Rakich for FiveThirtyEight: “The Most Important Elections Of 2022 Could Be In State Legislatures”Brittany Bernstein for The National...
2022-10-2753 minThe DownballotWill scandals sink the GOP's Senate hopes? with Nathaniel RakichAfter an erruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP’s hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker’s ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil’s presidential runoff, wh...
2022-10-0646 min
#iVoted PodcastE4: Why Primaries Matter Featuring Artists Trending in The South: TN, MS, KY, LA, VA, & WVWelcome back to the #iVoted Festival 2022 Podcast!Episode Four's theme is "Why Primaries Matter" where we interview FiveThirtyEight Senior Election Analyst Nathaniel Rakich to explain just that.This episode also features interviews with #iVoted 2022 Festival artists who are trending in The South including Jillian Dawn, Afton Wolfe, Rachel Pearl, Jamie Woodfin Jr., Jamie Lynn Vessels, and Douglas Wayne who are artists trending or based in Mississippi, Kentucky, Louisiana, Virginia, and West Virginia!00:00 = Interview w/ Nathaniel Rakich21:25= Interview w/ Jillian Dawn27:38= Interview w/ Afton Wolfe34:14= Interview w/ Rachel Pearl38:06= Interview w/Jamie Woodfin...
2022-06-121h 02Political GabfestMore Fetterman!Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:Thomas B. Edsall for The New York Times: “Status Anxiety Is Blowing Wind Into Trump’s Sails”Karn Yourish and Nicholas Confessore for The New York Times: “A Fringe Conspiracy Theory, Fostered Online, Is Refashioned by the G.O.P.”Jamelle Bouie for The New York Times: “The Slaughter in Buffalo Hasn’t Quieted the Great Replacement Caucus”Nathaniel Rakich for FiveThirtyEight: “What Went Down During the May 17 Primary Elections” David A. Graham for The Atlantic: “John Fetterman Wins on Vibes”Greg...
2022-05-1950 minThe DownballotNerding out on redistricting, with Nathaniel RakichThis week on The Downballot, we nerd out with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight, whose path from hobbyist to full-time election analyst closely mirrors the Daily Kos Elections story. Rakich discusses how gerrymandering might have made for a more equal congressional playing field but not necessarily a fair one; what kind of redistricting commissions have actually worked best; and some of the key bellwether districts he'll be looking at to judge what sort of night Democrats can expect in November. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into a hard-to-explain decision by a major Democratic super PAC to take...
2022-04-1459 min
Democracy in Color with Steve PhillipsRedistricting 101As redistricting maps get finalized across the country, Democrats are in better shape than most pundits predicted following the 2020 election. Steve, Sharline and Julie share updates on the redistricting process and dive into the numbers to highlight how and where Democrats should focus their energy and investment to win this year.
We also discuss what’s wrong with the commonly held belief that the President’s party always suffers in the midterms. And Steve shares important takeaways from his latest article in The Guardian on the fight for voting rights.
REFERENCES:
Martin Luther King quotes
“So the great stumbling block and a...
2022-01-2042 min
PolilogueEpisode 237: Good Cop, Bad CopToday on Polilogue, Naomi and Brendan take on new roles as we discuss Afghanistan. Naomi is Good Cop as she acknowledges and praises good, noteworthy questions. Whereas Brendan finger wags and admonishes the bad questions on the Sunday morning shows. Shows discussed State of the Union on CNNFox News Sunday on FOXThis Week on ABCFace the Nation on CBSMeet the Press on NBCResources“What Americans Think About The End Of The Afghanistan War And Biden’s Handling Of It So...
2021-08-3057 min
The Ezra Klein ShowRepublicans Are Setting Off a ‘Doom Loop’ for DemocracyThe insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6 failed. Donald Trump is not the president. But at the state level, the Republican war on elections is posting startling wins. They are trying to do what Trump failed to do: neuter elections as a check on Republican power.A new report by three voting rights groups found that 24 laws have been passed in 14 states this year that will allow state legislatures to “politicize, criminalize and interfere in election administration.” And a May analysis from the Brennan Center found that Republican-controlled legislatures in 14 states have passed 22 laws that made voting hard...
2021-06-251h 18The Ezra Klein ShowObama Explains How America Went From ‘Yes We Can’ to ‘MAGA’“My entire politics is premised on the fact that we are these tiny organisms on this little speck floating in the middle of space,” Barack Obama told me, sitting in his office in Washington, D.C.To be fair, I was the one who had introduced the cosmic scale, asking how proof of alien life would change his politics. But Obama, in a philosophical mood, used the question to trace his view of humanity. “The differences we have on this planet are real,” he said. “They’re profound. And they cause enormous tragedy as well as joy. But we’re ju...
2021-06-0158 min
LA PodcastRecall Me by Your NameCOVID numbers keep dropping and vaccine eligibility expands. A report documents LAPD's response to the May and June protests against police brutality. And Alissa and Scott debate whether or not they should be freaking out about Gavin Newsom's recall election.HousekeepingScott was on Councilmember Mike Bonin's PodcastCovidCOVID Hospitalizations Drop Below 1,000 Ahead of LA County's Move to Red Tier (City News Service; NBC4; 3/13/21)California counties sidestep direct Blue Shield oversight in new vaccine deal (Melody Gutierrez; LAT; 3/12/21)AirTalk | Audio: LAUSD, Teachers Union Reach School Reopening...
2021-03-151h 11
WCCS PodcastsSit Down For A Tossup: Nathaniel RakichHow does Adam spend his birthday? By interviewing Nathaniel Rakich! Rakich, a journalist and analyst from 538 sits down to tell his story, the dangers of hyper polarization, Massachusetts Elections, and his love of baseball!
2021-02-2623 min
The Journalism SaluteNathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight on The Ways He Analyzes ElectionsOn this episode, Mark is joined by FiveThirtyEight election analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Nathaniel talked about the path to his current job, how he collaborates with other members of the website on stories, how he comes up with story ideas, and the best way to understand polls and election data. He also provided advice to aspiring journalists who want to work extensively with data.Thank you for listening. Please rate, review and subscribe to the podcast if you can. You can contact us at journalismsalute@gmail.com or @journalismpod.Important...
2021-02-0232 min
PODCAST-19: FiveThirtyEight on the Novel CoronavirusHow To Vote Safely In A PandemicWe talk with FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Maggie Koerth about how states are trying to make it safe to vote in person this Election Day, and what you should keep in mind as you go to the polls.
2020-10-2921 min
Skimm ThisAwareness, Meet Action: Battling Breast Cancer During COVID-19This week, we’ve got updates on three developing stories you’ve probably been hearing about. We’ll break down Pope Francis’s recent comments on same-sex civil unions. We’ve got the latest on new COVID-19 lockdowns happening around the world. And then, what’s going on with foreign interference in the home stretch of the election. Then, we’ve got an important message from breast cancer doctors and breast cancer survivors about why COVID cannot be a reason to avoid staying on top of your breast health.Also: there’s a...
2020-10-2333 min
Jigsaw PoliticsThe Final CountdownElection day is coming up! This week we take you through the key battleground states while analyzing supreme court picks! Listen to Jigsaw Politics on 90.7fm WKPS https://www.thelion.fm/ You can send your thoughts to jigsawpoliticspod@gmail.com or connect with us on social media @Jigsawpolitics or on the web https://jppodcast.wixsite.com/jigsawpolitics Music by Joakim Karud https://youtube.com/joakimkarud JIGSAW POLITICS MERCH OUT NOW https://teespring.com/stores/jigsaw-politics-podcastSources: "Why Trump’s Supreme Court Fantasy List Is Bad for Real Life" by Martin J. Siegel https://www.nytimes.co...
2020-09-1826 min
The New Yorker Radio HourBernie Sanders Ascends, and a High School Simulates the ElectionBernie Sanders’s win in New Hampshire has established him as the Democratic Presidential front-runner. Centrist Democrats regard him not as a challenge but more like an existential threat: they assume that only a moderate—and certainly not a democratic socialist—can sway critical swing voters and win in November. Are they right? David Remnick speaks with Keith Ellison, the Minnesota Attorney General who served as co-chair of the Democratic National Committee after that organization infamously tried to spike Sanders’s candidacy in 2016. Ellison says that the clarity of Sanders’s mission and his appeal to economic problems can win over s...
2020-02-1438 min
Stay Tuned with PreetBorn to Poll (with J. Ann Selzer)On this week’s episode of Stay Tuned, "Born to Poll," host Preet Bharara answers your questions about:
-- Former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's move to withdraw his guilty plea
-- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement naming the House Impeachment Managers
-- The documents provided to the House Intelligence Committee by Rudy Giuliani's associate, Lev Parnas
The guest is J. Ann Selzer, the president and founder of polling firm Selzer & Company. She is one of the country's most widely-respected pollsters and has been overseeing the Des Moines Register Iowa poll almost every year since the 1980s.
REFERENCES & SUPPLEMENTAL MAT...
2020-01-161h 19
Stay Tuned with PreetBorn to Poll (with J. Ann Selzer)On this week’s episode of Stay Tuned, "Born to Poll," host Preet Bharara answers your questions about:
-- Former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's move to withdraw his guilty plea
-- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement naming the House Impeachment Managers
-- The documents provided to the House Intelligence Committee by Rudy Giuliani's associate, Lev Parnas
The guest is J. Ann Selzer, the president and founder of polling firm Selzer & Company. She is one of the country's most widely-respected pollsters and has been overseeing the Des Moines Register Iowa poll almost every year since the 1980s.
REFERENCES & SUPPLEMENTAL MAT...
2020-01-161h 18
Wisdom of CrowdsEpisode 9: Meritocracy, Depoliticization, and the End of the End of HistoryShadi and Damir start talking about the appeals and perils of Pete Buttigieg and end up discussing the dangerous dead ends of meritocratic right-think. Mentioned in the Podcast: Shadi’s tweetstorm about Mayor Pete (https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1203416084189196288) Luuk van Middelaar’s latest book (https://www.amazon.com/Alarums-Excursions-Improvising-Politics-European-ebook/dp/B07PHV1Y4M/) “Lanes Are Starting to Emerge in the 2020 Primary” -Nathaniel Rakich, 538 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lanes-are-starting-to-emerge-in-the-2020-democratic-primary/) “Anti-Solutionism as a Strategy” – Natan Sacks, Foreign Affairs (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/israel/2015-10-20/why-israel-waits) This is a public episo...
2019-12-121h 06
Replacement Level PodcastEpisode 84: Nathaniel RakichThis episode of the Replacement Level Podcast features Nathaniel Rakich. Nathaniel’s work has appeared at FanGraphs, FiveThirtyEight, and in the Hardball Times. He joined me to discuss his Hall of Fame projection system. We went over every player on the ballot, discussed why some players perform better with voters who keep their selections private, and who […]
2018-01-2342 minReplacement Level PodcastEpisode 61: Nathaniel RakichThis episode of the Replacement Level Podcast features Nathaniel Rakich. Nathaniel’s writing has appeared at the Hardball Times, FiveThirtyEight, and FanGraphs. He runs the blog Baseballot which specializes in data driven analysis of baseball, politics and elections. He joined me to discuss his projections for the 2017 Hall of Fame class. He currently projects four […]
2017-01-1100 min
The StewPod: Baseball, pop culture & moreCould five players make the Hall of Fame this year?It's Hall of Fame season in baseball, and with that comes all sorts of opinions and analysis. Including this: One projection says five new players could be voted in this year, the most by BBWAA voters since the historic 1936 class, which was the first.
Nathaniel Rakich created a model for using public ballots to project what the final results will be and this year he says Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Trevor Hoffman, Ivan Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero will get in. You can read all about his process and see his results at The Hardball Times. But he's also joining on...
2017-01-0748 min