Shows
The HC Commodities PodcastNavigating Trump 2.0: Part 2 - Trading Cognitive Dissonance with Nick KumlebenIn Part 2, we continue our discussion on navigating the new Trump Administration. Why are metals and critical minerals central to the administrations agenda? What does it mean to prioritize security over economics and sustainability? How to manage the inherent internal conflicts between co-existing policies and statements and what the trading opportunities might be for the energy & commodities sector. We welcome back with Nick Kumleben, the Energy and Commodities Director at Green Mantle, the geopolitical and macro advisory firm that weaves in historical context to help organizations understand the current markets and opportunities within them.
2025-04-2348 minThe HC Commodities PodcastNavigating Trump 2.0: Part 1 - Signal vs Noise with Nick KumlebenThe commodities sector faces a new and uncertain world. In this episode, we look at how to understand and how to navigatethe new Trump administration and its impact on domestic and global markets, particularly around energy and commodities using analogies from history. What is signal…and what is noise. Our guest is Nick Kumleben. Nick is the energy and commodities director at Greenmantle, the advisory firm founded by Niall Ferguson, focused on geopolitical and macroeconomics, taking a deep understanding of history, to learn the lessons that can be applied to today's world. They advise funds, traders, and governments.2025-04-1646 min
Audio BriefsBack & Forth 3: Do Sanctions Work?An audio version of “Back & Forth 3: Do Sanctions Work?” Focusing on Russia as the main case study, Nick Kumleben argues that sanctions fail because of their ease of circumvention and inability to deter bad actors. Moreover, he asserts that multilateral sanctions may have only been possible in an era of unchallenged U.S. leadership. CSIS’s Philip A. Luck and Andrea Leonard Palazzi counter that his piece underappreciates the true deterrence power of sanctions, overlooks their success at degrading Russia’s war-making ability and overfocuses on trade relative to financial restrictions, which are much harder to bypass at scale and lie at the...2025-03-1918 min