Shows
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)We should stop burning pharma trials’ lab notes, with Ruxandra TesloPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ruxandra Teslo to discuss why drug development keeps getting more expensive despite revolutionary new treatment modalities from GLP-1 agonists to gene therapies. They discuss Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Law in reverse) and Ruxandra's Common Technical Document Project, which aims to build the "Stack Overflow of clinical development" by making regulatory submissions publicly accessible. This will fill a present hole in the education of researchers, lower barriers for small biotechs, and accelerate drug discovery.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ruxandra-teslo/ –Sponsor: FramerBuilding and maint...
2026-01-221h 18
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The capitalist's guide to podcasting, with Ross Rheingans-YooIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo–Spons...
2025-05-221h 03
The Bayesian Conspiracy232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John BennettJohn Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change.
LINKS
The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change
John Bennett’s LinkedIn
Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface
Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog
“Every Bay Area Walled Compound”
Trace on the FAA hiring scandal
What We Owe the Future (Will MacAskill)
Center for AI Policy
TBC episode 202 – we talk with the Center for AI Policy
Horizon Institute for Public Service Fellowships
Dear Grom and Other Stories
Want to run an HPMOR A...
2025-03-051h 31
The Bayesian Conspiracy232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John BennettJohn Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change.
LINKS
The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change
John Bennett’s LinkedIn
Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface
Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog
“Every Bay Area Walled Compound”
Trace on the FAA hiring scandal
What We Owe the Future (Will MacAskill)
Center for AI Policy
TBC episode 202 – we talk with the Center for AI Policy
Horizon Institute for Public Service Fellowships
Dear Grom and Other Stories
Want to run an HPMOR A...
2025-03-051h 31The Bayesian Conspiracy232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John BennettJohn Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change.
LINKS
The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change
John Bennett’s LinkedIn
Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface
Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog
“Every Bay Area Walled Compound”
Trace on the FAA hiring scandal
What We Owe the Future (Will MacAskill)
Center for AI Policy
TBC episode 202 – we talk with the Center for AI Policy
Horizon Institute for Public Service Fellowships
Dear Grom and Other Stories
Want to run an HPMOR A...
2025-03-051h 31
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Retrospective on 2024, with Sammy CottrellIn this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/...
2025-01-091h 03
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua MorrisonIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time a...
2024-12-191h 12
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-YooIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/ –Spo...
2024-10-311h 27
Astral Codex Ten PodcastMantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-scoring-rule-controversy Metaculus scoring rule controversy Zvi considered using some Metaculus markets for his weekly coronavirus roundup, but was turned off by the scoring rules. Ross Rheingans-Yoo writes about the issue here. Everyone agrees Metaculus’ scoring rule is “proper”, a technical term meaning that it correctly incentivizes you to choose the probability you think is true. Zvi and Ross’s objection is that it doesn’t correctly incentivize you about whether to bet at all, or how much effort to put into betting. For example, on many questi...
2021-03-0212 min