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硅谷101|中国版E212｜AI数据中心的万亿大基建时代：美国GDP增长全靠它“2025年上半年，美国GDP增长几乎全部来自于数据中心与信息技术。”“如果去掉信息技术与软件，美国GDP增长率仅有0.1%。”——哈佛大学经济学家杰森·弗曼（Jason Furman）最近一个大新闻是，OpenAI发公告完成架构与资本重组，为潜在IPO铺路，核心也是它承诺了未来1.4万亿的算力投入，这是一个巨大的资金缺口。另一方面，美国滞后的基础设施建设，对万亿级数据中心蓝图形成了根本性掣肘。就在我们播客发出来的前，10月27日，OpenAI发公开信致信白宫，称中国2024年新增电力为429吉瓦，而美国仅增加了51吉瓦，希望美国政府对AI基础建设项目优先审批。这是一个比想象中更疯狂的大基建时代：美国极少的科技公司联合金融巨头，正在不成比例地对美国经济产生决定性影响。我们抛开钱的问题，来看看这轮AI大基建正在带火哪些行业，为何美国的电力建设又如此困难。【主播】泓君，硅谷101创始人，播客主理人【嘉宾】徐熠兴（Ethan Xu），前微软能源战略经理，前突破能源科研总监王辰晟，前特斯拉供应链总监【JJLake创新空间】JJLake是位于硅谷Mountain View的创新空间+孵化器，由管理规模近300亿美元的Oriza Holdings基金支持。目前JJLake孵化器项目正在招募创业团队，适合需要发挥亚洲的生产制造、供应链、市场等优势的创业者。另外，JJLake也向创业者提供高性价比的办公场地，欢迎联系JJLake负责人柳一夫详谈。� 邮箱：yliu@jjlaker.com【你将听到】02:25 JJLake创新空间AI巨头押注算力规模04:43 OpenAI最激进，目标构建10吉瓦乃至长期100吉瓦的算力容量06:36 xAI、Meta同样激进，扫货发电机、抢占能源低廉土地07:24 微软、Google、亚马逊：已有庞大基础，策略相对稳健10:44 Power First战略背后的逻辑：“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险13:43 细拆经济账：“比尔总会吃掉安迪”，集中化比分布式更经济，训练速度决定竞争胜负15:59 算力需求从以训练为主，转向以推理为主（未来或占80%以上）18:03 推理可以更分布式，但规模集群要比小数据中心节省运营成本军备竞赛下的能源危机21:14 AI发展的最大瓶颈已从“缺芯片”转变为“缺能源”22:30 美国每年落下20吉瓦缺口，相当于2～3个纽约的用电23:57 新建数据中心的短期应对策略：争取余量+天然气发电为主24:55 Sam Altman的核裂变公司Oklo，还在施工股价就涨疯了26:10 考虑到不同能源的容量系数，新增电力仍难填缺口28:22 发电后如何输送到美国脆弱的电网系统，也是个难题29:25 建数据中心的成本：1吉瓦数据中心≈500亿美元资源抢夺与技术破局30:40 燃气涡轮机订单排到2028年，马斯克横扫全美70%库存34:52 变压器核心材料硅钢进口受限，制约电网基础设施升级37:17 英伟达构想供电新方案，应对机柜功耗指数级飙升-传统交流供电（目前主流）：转换环节多
2025-10-3154 min
硅谷101E212｜AI数据中心的万亿大基建时代：美国GDP增长全靠它
“2025年上半年，美国GDP增长几乎全部来自于数据中心与信息技术。”
“如果去掉信息技术与软件，美国GDP增长率仅有0.1%。”
——哈佛大学经济学家杰森·弗曼（Jason Furman）
最近一个大新闻是，OpenAI发公告完成架构与资本重组，为潜在IPO铺路，核心也是它承诺了未来1.4万亿的算力投入，这是一个巨大的资金缺口。
另一方面，美国滞后的基础设施建设，对万亿级数据中心蓝图形成了根本性掣肘。就在我们播客发出来前，10月27日，OpenAI发公开信致信白宫，称中国2024年新增电力为429吉瓦，而美国仅增加了51吉瓦，希望美国政府对AI基础建设项目优先审批。
这是一个比想象中更疯狂的大基建时代：美国极少的科技公司联合金融巨头，正在不成比例地对美国经济产生决定性影响。我们抛开钱的问题，来看看这轮AI大基建正在带火哪些行业，为何美国的电力建设又如此困难。
【主播】
泓君，硅谷101创始人，播客主理人
【嘉宾】
徐熠兴（Ethan Xu），前微软能源战略经理，前突破能源科研总监
王辰晟，前特斯拉供应链总监
【JJLake创新空间】
JJLake是位于硅谷Mountain View的创新空间 + 孵化器，由管理规模近300亿美元的Oriza Holdings基金支持。目前JJLake孵化器项目正在招募创业团队，适合需要发挥亚洲的生产制造、供应链、市场等优势的创业者。另外，JJLake也向创业者提供高性价比的办公场地，欢迎联系JJLake负责人柳一夫详谈。
📮 邮箱：yliu@jjlaker.com
【你将听到】
02:25 JJLake创新空间
AI巨头押注算力规模
04:43 OpenAI最激进，目标构建10吉瓦乃至长期100吉瓦的算力容量
06:36 xAI、Meta同样激进，扫货发电机、抢占能源低廉土地
07:24 微软、Google、亚马逊：已有庞大基础，策略相对稳健
10:44 Power First战略背后的逻辑：“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险
13:43 细拆经济账：“比尔总会吃掉安迪”，集中化比分布式更经济，训练速度决定竞争胜负
15:59 算力需求从以训练为主，转向以推理为主（未来或占80%以上）
18:03 推理可以更分布式，但规模集群要比小数据中心节省运营成本
军备竞赛下的能源危机
21:14 AI发展的最大瓶颈已从“缺芯片”转变为“缺能源”
22:30 美国每年落下20吉瓦缺口，相当于2～3个纽约的用电
23:57 新建数据中心的短期应对策略：争取余量+天然气发电为主
24:55 Sam Altman的核裂变公司Oklo，还在施工股价就涨疯了
26:10 考虑到不同能源的容量系数，新增电力仍难填缺口
28:22 发电后如何输送到美国脆弱的电网系统，也是个难题
29:25 建数据中心的成本：1吉瓦数据中心≈500亿美元
资源抢夺与技术破局
30:40 燃气涡轮机订单排到2028年，马斯克横扫全美70%库存
34:52 变压器核心材料硅钢进口受限，制约电网基础设施升级
37:17 英伟达构想供电新方案，应对机柜功耗指数级飙升
-传统交流供电（目前主流）：转换环节多，1兆瓦机柜损耗22%，1吉瓦的数据中心需50万吨铜
-800V高压直流供电（未来方向）：损耗降至0.6%，用铜量少，但需整个产业链生态协同跟进
42:54 今年美国数据中心的用电量占全国5%，接近整个加州的用电量，并且2030年将翻倍
24:46 为什么中国年增电力，能做到美国的8～10倍？
46:19 避开长距离传输短板，美国科技公司选择在数据中心旁自建发电站
48:34 美国电力建设，带火了哪些能源股？
51:24 大规模AI训练真相：每周货车运送100吨故障芯片返厂
【数据更新】
32:47 根据媒体公开报道，马斯克在xAI 在孟菲斯的 Colossus 2 数据中心已经安装的是 119台风冷冷水机组，涡轮机为小几十台。
【延伸阅读和相关术语】
《杠杆、垄断和泡沫：解析硅谷万亿资本闭环【101 Weekly】》
安迪-比尔定理 （Andy and Bill’s Law），原话是 “Andy gives, Bill takes away.” 安迪指英特尔前CEO安迪·格鲁夫，比尔指微软前任CEO比尔·盖茨，这句话的意思是，硬件提高的性能，很快被软件消耗掉了。
容量系数（Capacity Factor），衡量发电设施在特定时间段内实际发电效率的关键指标，容量系数=实际发电量/理论发电量。
【监制】
泓君
【后期】
AMEI
【运营】
朱婕
【BGM】
Orbit Calling - Experia
Un Piccolo Party - Martin Landstrom
Silent Approval - Howard Harper-Barnes
【在这里找到我们】
公众号：硅谷101
收听渠道：Apple Podcast｜Spotify｜小宇宙｜喜马拉雅｜蜻蜓FM｜荔枝FM｜网易云音乐｜QQ音乐
其他平台：YouTube｜Bilibili 搜索「硅谷101播客」
联系我们：podcast@sv101.net
本节目中嘉宾所表达的观点均为其个人看法，不代表所在公司的立场。本期节目不构成任何投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。Special Guests: 徐熠兴 and 王辰晟.
2025-10-3154 min
Into the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchThe Age of AI w/ Krista FabrickThis week, Debi is joined by special guest Dr. Krista Fabrick business and marketing professor Mesa community college, marketing consultant and business coach (Sam Oriza was out sick)Debi and Krista discuss the growing concerns with the effects that use of AI can have on the brain and on the effects that screen time in general can have on young developing minds.Just like many other things, AI is not inherently good or evil. It is a tool which can be both helpful and destructive. Krista and Debi discuss a recent study at MIT on t...
2025-10-0239 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchReframing Singleness in the Church w/ Season ReynoldsThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Season ReynoldsSeason, Debi, and Sam discuss the explosion of single adults in the United States. 46.4% of the adults in the US are single. Ministries within churches often focus on college-age singles and family ministries but have very little specifically geared toward older single adults. Loneliness and frustrations over delayed or unmet expectations of where they "should" be as it relates to marriage and children are common struggles among this growing population. Many single Christians struggle to stay in church, find a place to bel...
2025-03-1335 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchWhy Government Efficiency Matters (DOGE)This week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza discuss federal spending.While our podcast typically covers more local level engagement, this episode touches on some federal issues. Why are there so many 3-letter agencies in the federal government? Just how big is our national debt? What is DOGE and what is it attempting to do? As Christians, why should we care about national debt and federal spending and does that conflict with our biblical mandate to care for the poor?To find out more about our national debt crisis, watch this PragerU video https://www.pra...
2025-03-0640 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchThe Dark Underbelly of the Abortion IndustryThis week, guest co-host Sam Oriza interviews Debi about her decades long involvement in pro-life activism and some of what she has learned through years of research into the industry.The abortion industry is a profit driven industry. Planned Parenthood alone has a net worth of 2.5 Billion dollars. What many people don't know is how much criminal activity abortion clinics and abortionists themselves have either been accused of, caught on video admitting to, and in some cases convicted of doing. They discuss things like Medicaid fraud, the cover-up of sexual abuse of minors, drug trafficking, wr...
2025-02-2745 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchAre Women's Sports Finally protected? w/ Kim MillerThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Kim Miller, founder and president of Arizona Women of Actiona.Kim, Debi and Sam discuss the importance of sports programs and opportunities for girls, including Sam's experience playing college softball and Kim's 3 daughters' sports opportunities.They discuss the executive order signed by president Trump to protect girls sports and why it is only a temporary solution. They discuss why executive orders can be helpful, but they don't permanently settle issues. They discuss Arizona's ongoing legal battle over our own law to protect girls' sports...
2025-02-2233 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchMore than a Missionary w/ Cid CotaThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Cid Cota, pastor of the San Carlos Apache campus of Dream City ChurchDebi, Sam and Pastor Cid discuss the importance of understanding life on the Reservations and the unique needs that arise in those communities. Pastor Cid shares his story of growing up on the Reservation, moving away and moving back. They discuss how Arizona has the highest percentage of tribal land of any US state. There are high rates of poverty, addiction and abuse in these communities. Pastor Cid discusses how meeting tangible, physi...
2025-02-1339 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchThe Secularization of America w/ Brad BakerThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Brad Baker, associate pastor at Dream City ChurchPastor Brad has a candid conversation with Debi and Sam about his life and how he sees the current trends in culture. He talks about growing up in a pastor's home and serving in ministry for most of his life, including many years as a youth and family pastor.They discuss how every generation has different difficulties and challenges. They discuss the drastic secularization of America in the last few decades. Once, it was a cultural nor...
2025-02-0737 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchBe the Light in Your Community w/ Luke MeridethThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Luke Meredith, Co-Pastor of the Colorado City Dream City Campus and Co-Director of the Short Creek Dream Center.Luke shares some of his backstory and how he ended up at the Short Creek Dream Center. He talks about the miraculous twists and turns of life and how that helped prepare him for ministry to people with very unique needs. Much of the community has wounds from religious abuse and familial trafficking in the form of child marriage and polygamy. They have church hurt and a distrust of...
2025-01-3038 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchHow Nonprofits are Better than Government Programs w/ Angel BarnettThis week, Debi and guest co-host Sam Oriza are joined by Angel Barnett, CEO of Dream InstituteDebi, Sam and Angel discuss Dream Institute and the work that is being done to help women and children in need. Dream Institute includes the Short Creek Dream Center which is rescuing families from religious abuse and from familial trafficking in the form of child marriage and polygamy. Dream Institute also includes the Living Hope Dream Center which functions as a pregnancy care home and transitional housing for single moms. Pastor Angel also talks about various seasons of her...
2025-01-2335 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchCollege: Indoctrinating or Eye Opening? w/ Sam OrizaThis week, Debi was joined by Sam Oriza, volunteer leader at Dream City Church.Debi and Sam discuss Sam's college experience at a Christian college in the Pacific Northwest during the height of the lockdowns. Sam discusses how she was raised in a Christian home but when she went away to college, she quickly realized that even at a Christian school, the worldview of students, professors and administration was vastly different from hers. She talks about educating herself in the area of civics and the challenges of starting a TPUSA chapter on her campus. Sam wil...
2025-01-1737 minInto the Fire: Powered by Dream City ChurchCollege: Indoctrinating or Eye Opening? w/ Sam OrizaThis week, Debi was joined by Sam Oriza, volunteer leader at Dream City Church.Debi and Sam discuss Sam's college experience at a Christian college in the Pacific Northwest during the height of the lockdowns. Sam discusses how she was raised in a Christian home but when she went away to college, she quickly realized that even at a Christian school, the worldview of students, professors, and administration was vastly different from hers. She talks about educating herself in the area of civics and the challenges of starting a TPUSA chapter on her campus. Sam wil...
2025-01-1646 min
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