Spencer Greenberg - Podcast Details

Shows

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow f***ed is psychology? (with Adam Mastroianni)Read the full transcript here. Is the bar for what counts as new knowledge higher in psychology than in other scientific fields? Why did the field of psychology formally start centuries later than other scientific fields? Why is it so hard to make progress in psychology? How useful are social science "mega-studies"? What actually helps people stick to habits? What do scientists often get wrong about the philosophy of science? What have social scientists learned so far from the replication crisis? And how does that compare to what they should perhaps have been learning from it? Why...2025-04-211h 43

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergA story can change the world (with Elizabeth Cox)Read the full transcript here. How important is story-telling for changing the world? What counts as a story? How closely should persuasive stories conform to the formula of "the hero's journey"? How much time do we spend on average thinking about stories? How can raw data be shaped into a story that's both true and compelling? What are some good examples of stories that have changed the world for the better? When, if ever, do scare tactics work? Can a bad guy with a story only be stopped by a good guy with a story? Why are...2025-04-031h 10

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAI, US-China relations, and lessons from the OpenAI board (with Helen Toner)Read the full transcript here. Is it useful to vote against a majority when you might lose political or social capital for doing so? What are the various perspectives on the US / China AI race? How close is the competition? How has AI been used in Ukraine? Should we work towards a global ban of autonomous weapons? And if so, how should we define "autonomous"? Is there any potential for the US and China to cooperate on AI? To what extent do government officials — especially senior policymakers — worry about AI? Which particular worries are on their minds? To w...2025-02-271h 21

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergGetting a handle on your goals and big life changes (with Tee Barnett)Read the full transcript here. What are the best things to do to help someone achieve their goals? What kind of person should see a personal coach? And when should they do so? What makes for a good personal coach? How do you know which coaches are legit given that they aren't certified like counselors? Can everyone benefit from meeting with a coach? How can you harness modernity to live the kind of life you want? In what ways do people treat themselves as resources? What are the most common causes of burnout? How high should our...2025-02-201h 23

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAvoiding major investment mistakes (with Jim O'Shaughnessy)Read the full transcript here. What are the biggest mistakes people make when investing? What's the best thing to do with extra savings? How can we overcome emotional biases that might negatively impact our investment strategies? What is "hyperbolic discounting"? How can you know when to pull your money out of an investment? How can journaling help with investing? Is it irrational to invest only in companies based in your country? What's the optimal mix of stocks and bonds? Are short-term bonds better than long-term bonds, or vice versa? How can you tell genuine growth from too...2025-02-131h 19

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCreating a new city from scratch (with Erick Brimen)Read the full transcript here. What does it take to start a new city, especially one designed to be a special economic zone (SEZ)? What are the advantages and disadvantages to having a private company as manager of a city? Should governments be profit-maximizing? Can people choose to live in one of the Zonas de Empleo y Desarrollo Económico (ZEDE) cities in Honduras while also opting out of its specific government services? What are some legitimate reasons governments should regulate businesses? Are medicines produced in SEZs safe? How do ZEDE investors make money? To what extent c...2025-02-061h 23

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat's the most effective type of therapy? (with Matthew Smout)Read the full transcript here. What is Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)? What are the "cognitive" and "behavioral" parts of CBT? What are some of its most common techniques? What are "negative core beliefs"? What does CBT have to say about situations in which problems come from a person's environment rather than from within the person's mind? What makes a particular belief or behavior "good"? How do we know how effective various psychotherapeutic treatments are? How much can we rely on meta-analyses about psychotherapy treatments? Is CBT the most evidence-based psychotherapy treatment? What are CBT's main competitors? Is...2025-01-301h 32

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergA conversation about Borderline Personality Disorder (with Kayla Spicer)Read the full transcript here. What is Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD)? Why is it so stigmatized relative to other mental health issues? What does it mean to be the "favorite person" of someone with BPD? Can people with BPD have multiple favorite persons, or no favorite person at all? What is "splitting"? Why are people with BPD more prone to engage in risky, reckless, or impulsive behaviors? How might BPD overlap with the "dark triad" personality traits (i.e., machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy)? Is BPD more common among women? How should we treat people who may not...2025-01-231h 36

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCould the placebo effect be bullshit? (with Literal Banana)Read the full transcript here. Is the placebo effect bullshit? Are "open-label" placebos just as effective as "closed-label" placebos? How do placebos differ from dummies? Is the placebo effect just a kind of scientific-sounding "woo"? How does social priming differ from word priming? Why is it important in research to have both placebo and no-treatment groups? What is the Hawthorne effect? What is the John Henry effect? When is it useful to express effect sizes using Cohen's d? If there's not a placebo effect, then what's really going on in cases where it seems like there is...2025-01-161h 27

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergMaking better decisions by thinking like an artist (with Elspeth Kirkman)Read the full transcript here. What kinds of things really distort our ability to think clearly when making decisions? What is "psychological distance"? What is construal level theory? How can we intentionally increase or decrease psychological distance for ourselves or others who are making decisions? What are "decisionscapes"? When giving toddlers choices, we often artificially limit the number of available options to help smooth out the decision process and avoid decision paralysis. When might the imposition of this kind of artificial limitation be useful for adult decision-makers? What should we do with the productivity gains we've reaped...2025-01-091h 07

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAre the culture wars harming science? (with Cremieux)Read the full transcript here. Which of the world's hardest problems can be solved merely by gathering more data? Why are social problems harder to solve than biological problems? How should power between business owners and unions be balanced? Why do people so often misinterpret research results — sometimes even to the point of concluding exactly the opposite of what the results show? What heuristics should people use when reading research papers? How are culture wars affecting the reliability of research? Should there be any limits on what can be researched and published? When might left-leaning researchers actually en...2025-01-071h 28

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow can you learn more efficiently? (with Scott Young)Read the full transcript here. What do schools do well and not so well? In what contexts is memorization most effective? What's the value in teaching something that will probably be forgotten by most students after graduation? How should educators balance time spent on building skills versus acquiring knowledge? Why do students so often fail to apply the skills learned in school (e.g., fractions, solving for unknown quantities, etc.) to problems encountered in everyday life? What is "transfer of learning"? What is educational "directness"? How can we learn languages more efficiently? How does review compare to...2024-12-261h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergA conversation with a narcissist (with Jacob Skidmore)Read the full transcript here. Are narcissists born with narcissism? What are the core components of narcissism? To what extent do narcissists have their own personality that isn't shaped by what others think of them? Are narcissists overly confident or overly insecure? How are grandiosity and vulnerability related? Why might narcissists be offended by compliments? Would narcissists relinquish their narcissism if given the opportunity? Do most narcissists know that they suffer from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD)? How long of a questionnaire is needed to diagnose NPD? In what professions are narcissists overly represented? How should people deal...2024-12-191h 31

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat effects does guaranteed income have on U.S. citizens? (with Eva Vivalt)Read the full transcript here. What have we learned about UBI from recent, large-scale studies? What factors contribute to differential attrition in (especially long-term) studies? How much does it cost to run large UBI studies? Where else in the world have major UBI studies been run? What's the difference between "guaranteed income" and UBI? How do people in cash transfer studies tend to spend their money? Should restrictions be placed on what people can spend their study money on? How long does it take to see various effects of UBI or guaranteed income on a large scale...2024-12-121h 11

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHuman evolution and AI evolution (with Dwarkesh Patel)Read the full transcript here. What interesting things can we learn by studying pre-humans? How many different species of pre-humans were there? Why is there only a single species of human now? If pre-human species wiped each other out for various reasons, why might the ancestors of chimps and bonobos (who are very closely related to humans) have been spared? What roles did language, racism / speciesism, and disease likely play in the shaping of the human evolutionary tree? How is AI development like and unlike human development? What can we learn about AI development from human development...2024-12-051h 04

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergShould sex work be a crime? (with Kaytlin Bailey)Read the full transcript here. Why are sex workers treated so badly in the US? What effects do licensing requirements have on sex workers and their customers? How do sex worker rights connect with privacy rights more broadly? In what philosophical principles ought sex worker rights (and their customers' rights) to be grounded? How do sex work laws affect people who aren't sex workers? Is "whore-phobia" the root of all misogyny? Is misogyny built into human nature, or is it learned? How does testicle size affect evolutionary fitness? Must religions necessarily have rules and norms about sexual...2024-11-281h 20

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhen does productivity become toxic? (with Israa Nasir)Read the full transcript here. When does productivity become toxic? To which part(s) of ourselves or our lives should we anchor our self-worth? How can we connect our productivity to our values? How does self-esteem intersect with productivity? When should we listen to our bodies and intuitions, and when should we ignore them and perhaps even do the opposite? How should achievements affect our sense of self-worth? What are some techniques for emotional regulation? What is the "narrator mind" useful for? What are some good coping mechanisms? How ambitious should we be? How can we figure...2024-11-211h 00

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergA conversation with a sociopath (with M.E. Thomas)Read the full transcript here. Are the terms "psychopath" and "sociopath" interchangeable? Are people suffering from Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) naturally violent? Are people usually born with these psychopathy, sociopathy, ASPD, or other similar personality disorders; or are they caused by environmental factors? To what extent do sociopaths have a sense of self or relatively fixed personality? Are sociopaths easily manipulated? How do shame and guilt differ? What is "gray rage"? To what extent do the primary "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and sadism) overlap? From an evolutionary perspective, why might these traits appear in a...2024-11-142h 05

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHighs and lows on the road out of the replication crisis (with Brian Nosek)Read the full transcript here. How much more robust have the social sciences become since the beginnings of the replication crisis? What fraction of replication failures indicate that the original result was a false positive? What do we know with relative certainty about human nature? How much of a difference is there between how people behave in a lab setting and how they behave out in the world? Why has there been such a breakdown of trust in the sciences over the past few decades? How can scientists better communicate uncertainty in their findings to the public...2024-11-091h 38

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSuffering and the self (with Jay Garfield)Read the full transcript here. Why do we suffer? Would we still suffer if we got rid of all craving and aversion? Is pain the same thing as suffering? How is suffering connected to the concept of self? Should people in horrible situations attempt to remove themselves from those environments or try to improve their plights in any way; or should they merely free themselves from suffering by releasing their "craving" for well-being and their "aversion" to misery? Why would the dissolution of the self free someone from suffering? Are we identical to our bodies and/or...2024-10-311h 10

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergChoosing your strategy (with Seth Godin)Read the full transcript here. What are the differences between tactics and strategies? Is the speed of growth of a company the main thing business school graduates should consider when trying to figure out where to launch their careers? How much optimism or pessimism should strategies include? How can we gain footholds for change in systems that are very strongly self-reinforcing? Is it possible to change a system's side effects without changing its purpose? What are the differences between strategies and visions? Is it better to follow a map or a compass? If you buy a lottery...2024-10-2455 min

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow to be productive without burning out (with Anne-Laure Le Cunff)Read the full transcript here. What is "mindful" productivity? Is impostor syndrome linked to main character syndrome? Must increased productivity always come with an increased risk of burn-out? What mistakes do people most commonly make when trying to improve their productivity? Is the best productivity system also the most minimal? What is "plus-minus-next"? How can we use our time more efficiently? What does it mean to have an "experimental" mindset? How many of our passions do we discover at first sight? What are the differences between habits and routines? What are some good ways to set up...2024-10-171h 17

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergDoes simply giving people money truly enable them to escape poverty? (with Miriam Laker)Read the full transcript here. Should we give cash directly to people living in poverty? Why do most nonprofits prefer to give services rather than cash? What should be done if the things that a person really needs aren't purchasable near them? (For example, what if a person needs a vaccine that isn't available in their country?) Can most people be trusted to spend money wisely? Are single lump sum transfers more effective than recurring transfers on monthly or yearly bases? What are the most common uses to which recipients put their cash transfers? What are the...2024-10-1059 min

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCommunities of belief vs. communities of chemistry (with Tyler Alterman)Read the full transcript here. Do people need more community in their lives? What makes for a good community? Can you really belong to a community if you don't share its core values? Is social chemistry transitive? Do "communities of belief" form and build trust more quickly than "communities of chemistry"? Do rationalists avoid taking "vibes", intuition, or instinct into account when forming communities? Can you learn how to do a thing simply by pretending that you're a pro? What can you learn about people by breaking the standard social scripts? How might utilitarianism be harmful or...2024-09-261h 34

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergEveryone — including you! — should host more events (with Nick Gray)Read the full transcript here. Why should people host more events than they do right now? Under what conditions shouldn't a person host more events? Do these suggestions apply to introverts? What's the best RSVP tool? What is "double opt-in"? What's the ideal length of time for a social event? What kinds of ice-breaker activities, if any, should hosts use? What are the primary factors that affect people's enjoyment of an event? What does it mean to "compress and release" in an event or party context? Which nights of the week are best for hosting events? When...2024-09-201h 21

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat do we know for sure about human psychology? (with Simine Vazire)Read the full transcript here. How much progress has psychology made on the things that matter most to us? What are some psychological findings we feel pretty confident are true? How much consensus is there about the Big 5 personality traits? What are the points of disagreement about the Big 5? Are traits the best way of thinking about personality? How consistent are the Big 5 traits across cultures? How accurately do people self-report their own personality? When are psychophysical measures more or less useful than self-report measures? How much credence should we lend to the concept of cognitive dissonance...2024-09-121h 21

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergPattern-breaking ideas, and startups that change the world (with Mike Maples)Read the full transcript here. What mistakes do investors make when trying to predict which startups will succeed? Which matters more: a startup's team or its central idea? How do startup founders differ from other capitalists? What makes something a "pattern-breaking" idea or behavior? Are startup founders less sensitive to negative feedback than the average person? Is it possible to achieve startup success without challenging the status quo? Is it true that 90% of startups fail? What is founder-future match? At their core, what are movements? Can startup founders be too good at storytelling? Has the US become...2024-09-051h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergDecision-making and play-testing (with Dan Epstein)Read the full transcript here. What sorts of decisions are we making without even realizing we're making them? Are people aware of their own values? Do they know how those values rank relative to each other? What are all the various parties, interests, and values that have to be addressed and balanced when making decisions in a healthcare context? What does it mean to "play-test" yourself? What are the best strategies for giving feedback? How much energy is required to make various kinds of decisions? How can we practice and get better at decision-making? What is "tabletop...2024-08-291h 09

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergThe path to utopia (with Nick Bostrom)Read the full transcript here. Why do there seem to be more dystopias than utopias in our collective imagination? Why is it easier to find agreement on what we don't want than on what we do want? Do we simply not know what we want? What are "solved worlds", "plastic worlds", and "vulnerable worlds"? Given today's technologies, why aren't we working less than we potentially could? Can humanity reach a utopia without superintelligent AI? What will humans do with their time, and/or how will they find purpose in life, if AIs take over all labor? What...2024-08-251h 03

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergPhysical limits and the long-term future (with Anders Sandberg)Read the full transcript here. How much energy is needed for GDP growth? Would our civilization have developed at the same rate without fossil fuels? Could we potentially do the same things we're currently doing but with significantly less energy? How different would the world look if we'd developed nuclear energy much earlier? Why can't anything go faster than light? Will the heat death of the universe really be "the end" for everything? How can difficult concepts be communicated in simple ways that nevertheless avoid being misleading or confusing? Is energy conservation an unbreakable law? How likely...2024-08-151h 44

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergBecoming a goat to avoid existential dread (with Thomas Thwaites)Read the full transcript here. How hard is it to construct a toaster from scratch? Do we in modern times individually have more knowledge than individuals living 100 or 1,000 years ago? Should corporations be thought of as a kind of emergent artificial intelligence? To what extent are corporations — and more broadly, whole economies — aligned with human values? Which animals experience the smallest amount of existential dread? Are humans at the top of the evolutionary "pyramid"? Is it possible to make a completely harmless car? Or is it even possible to make a completely harmless anything? What are the diff...2024-08-081h 53

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAI apocalypticism vs. AI optimism (with Adam Russell)Read the full transcript here. What is "apocaloptimism"? Is there a middle ground between apocalypticism and optimism? What are the various camps in the AI safety and ethics debates? What's the difference between "working on AI safety" and "building safe AIs"? Can our social and technological coordination problems be solved only by AI? What is "qualintative" research? What are some social science concepts that can aid in the development of safe and ethical AI? What should we do with things that don't fall neatly into our categories? How might we benefit by shifting our focus from individual...2024-08-021h 04

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergShould we trust papers published in top social science journals? (with Daniel Lakens)Read the full transcript here. How much should we trust social science papers in top journals? How do we know a paper is trustworthy? Do large datasets mitigate p-hacking? Why doesn't psychology as a field seem to be working towards a grand unified theory? Why aren't more psychological theories written in math? Or are other scientific fields mathematicized to a fault? How do we make psychology cumulative? How can we create environments, especially in academia, that incentivize constructive criticism? Why isn't peer review pulling its weight in terms of catching errors and constructively criticizing papers? What kinds...2024-07-251h 41

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergIs psychology the same across cultures? (with Joseph Henrich)Read the full transcript here. What are "WEIRD" cultures? What percentage of the world's population is WEIRD? Why do WEIRD cultures tend to use analytic thinking (as opposed to the wholistic thinking used in non-WEIRD cultures)? Does school make you more intelligent or merely more knowledgeable? Do individualistic cultures tend to innovate more than collectivistic cultures? How does moral reasoning differ between WEIRD and non-WEIRD cultures? Is the world becoming more WEIRD? How diverse are non-WEIRD cultures?Joseph Henrich is currently the Ruth Moore Professor of Biological Anthropology in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology...2024-07-181h 07

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSpencer on The 80,000 Hours Podcast discussing money & happiness and hype vs. value (with Rob Wiblin)Read the full transcript here. NOTE: Spencer appeared as a guest on The 80,000 Hours Podcast back in March, and this episode is our release of that recording. Thanks to the folks at The 80,000 Hours Podcast for sharing both their audio and transcript with us!Does money make people happy? What's the difference between life satisfaction and wellbeing? In other contexts, critics are quick to point out that correlation does not equal causation; so why do they so often seem to ignore such equations when they appear in research about the relationships between money and happiness...2024-07-112h 34

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergConcrete actions anyone can take to help improve AI safety (with Kat Woods)Read the full transcript here. Why should we consider slowing AI development? Could we slow down AI development even if we wanted to? What is a "minimum viable x-risk"? What are some of the more plausible, less Hollywood-esque risks from AI? Even if an AI could destroy us all, why would it want to do so? What are some analogous cases where we slowed the development of a specific technology? And how did they turn out? What are some reasonable, feasible regulations that could be implemented to slow AI development? If an AI becomes smarter than humans...2024-07-041h 00

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat do socialism and effective altruism have in common? (with Garrison Lovely)Read the full transcript here. What does effective altruism look like from a leftist / socialist perspective? Are the far left and EA the only groups that take radical egalitarianism seriously? What are some of the points of agreement and disagreement between EA & socialism? Socialists frequently critique the excesses, harms, and failures of capitalism; but what do they have to say about the effectiveness of capitalism to produce wealth, goods, and services? Is socialism just a top-down mirror of capitalism? How difficult is it to mix and match economic tools or systems? Why is the left not more...2024-06-271h 10

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergRaising our happiness baseline (with Sasha Chapin)Read the full transcript here. How easy is it to shift our baseline level of happiness? What sorts of things can most effectively shift that baseline? And are they highly specific to each individual or generalizable to most people? What are the differences between conceptual and phenomenal self-love? Why might it be useful to view shame as a kink? How does self-love or self-acceptance differ from indulging or even just tolerating the worst parts of yourself? What's the best way to think about "woo"? How genuine is the stereotypical guru demeanor of serenity, graciousness, and attentiveness? Is...2024-06-201h 21

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWorldviews, altruism, and embracing variance (with Emmett Shear)Read the full transcript here. How does Emmett's worldview differ from the standard Silicon Valley worldview? What's the difference between an ideology and a worldview? What's middle management useful for? How might democracy be improved? How important is optimism? Why do people seem to get less done each day than they expect to get done? When is high variance beneficial? Does every startup have a point where it seems like they're going to fail? What's the best and worst startup advice out there? What's the right way to learn from users / customers? When should companies follow trends...2024-06-131h 20

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergTwo things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)Read the full transcript here. Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What...2024-06-061h 25

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat we know and don't know about nutrition (with Gil Carvalho)Read the full transcript here. How do we know what's true in nutrition? Why aren't nutrition studies seemingly as "definitive" as (e.g.) physics experiments often seem to be? What is the "hierarchy of evidence"? Why is there such a disconnect between the kinds of evidence that actually seem to persuade people and the kinds of evidence that scientists view as valid and meaningful? How can we talk about specific foods in ways that avoid labelling them as always good or always bad? Is the Mediterranean diet good for anyone and everyone? Is it better than all...2024-05-301h 24

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergMeasuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)Read the full transcript here. Can we measure everything that matters to us? When is measuring the correlates of a thing pretty much just as good as measuring the thing itself? Why are some people resistant to measuring certain things? What are some things people should be measuring but aren't? What's the connection between measuring things and assigning probabilities to events? How much do we know about how well human intuition performs against "doing the math"? How inconsistent are we at applying our own principles in decision-making? What kinds of calibration training are effective? What is "value...2024-05-231h 12

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat happens when you follow 100 self-help books to the letter? (with Kristen Meinzer)Read the full transcript here. Why does it seem that many people read self-help books with no intention of actually doing what the books prescribe? Why are self-help books often less clear than it seems they ought to be? What are self-help books actually designed to do? Why do self-help authors continue to write as though their ideas will help everyone when it seems fairly obvious that no single self-help book has ever been a global panacea? Should self-help advice differ based on the gender of the receiver? How does life coaching differ from self-help? How does...2024-05-161h 15

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAligning society with our deepest values and sources of meaning (with Joe Edelman)Read the full transcript here. What are the best ways to define "values" and "meaning"? How can democratic processes harness people's intrinsic values and sources of meaning to increase their agency, cooperation, participation, equality, etc.? To what extent do political rivals — or even the bitterest of political enemies — actually value many of the same things? Might we be able to use AIs as "neutral" third-party mediators to help reduce political polarization, especially on an interpersonal level? How can we transform our personal values and sources of meaning into positive, shared visions for society? Are markets inherently antisocial? Or a...2024-05-091h 09

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSeparating quantum computing hype from reality (with Scott Aaronson)Read the full transcript here. What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities...2024-05-021h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergShould we pause AI development until we're sure we can do it safely? (with Joep Meindertsma)Read the full transcript here. Should we pause AI development? What might it mean for an AI system to be "provably" safe? Are our current AI systems provably unsafe? What makes AI especially dangerous relative to other modern technologies? Or are the risks from AI overblown? What are the arguments in favor of not pausing — or perhaps even accelerating — AI progress? What is the public perception of AI risks? What steps have governments taken to migitate AI risks? If thoughtful, prudent, cautious actors pause their AI development, won't bad actors still keep going? To what extent are peop...2024-04-251h 01

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat should the Effective Altruism movement learn from the SBF / FTX scandal? (with Will MacAskill)Read the full transcript here. What are the facts around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX about which all parties agree? What was the nature of Will's relationship with SBF? What things, in retrospect, should've been red flags about Sam or FTX? Was Sam's personality problematic? Did he ever really believe in EA principles? Does he lack empathy? Or was he on the autism spectrum? Was he naive in his application of utilitarianism? Did EA intentionally install SBF as a spokesperson, or did he put himself in that position of his own accord? What lessons should EA leaders learn...2024-04-162h 01

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCommon body language mistakes and how to avoid making them (with Blake Eastman)Read the full transcript here. What are some common techniques for quantifying body language? How hard is it to identify poker "tells"? Are there any facial expressions or body movements that have universal meaning? What can be discerned about group dynamics just from watching a meeting over video call? What are the most common body language mistakes people make when going on dates or trying to make friends? What are the strongest indicators of charisma? How do people signal their social status? What are the most effective ways to deal with trolls? How valid is the concept...2024-04-051h 30

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergTrue things, useful things, and the differences between them (with Derek Sivers)Read the full transcript here. Is nothing objectively true? What kinds of things are we trying to communicate with the stories we tell? Why do we feel the need to take a side on every issue? Which sorts of issues should be tied to our identities? How can we set the definitions for terms in a conversation, if possible? Should people just believe whatever works for them? Is it better to try to compensate for our biases or to reduce them? Should we strive to have lower confidence in ourselves and our abilities? How should we think...2024-03-281h 15

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergShould we widen our moral circles to include animals, insects, and AIs? (with Jeff Sebo)Read the full transcript here. How did we end up with factory farming? How many animals do we kill every year in factory farms? When we consider the rights of non-human living things, we tend to focus mainly on the animal kingdom, and in particular on relatively larger, more complex animals; but to what extent should insects, plants, fungi, and even single-celled organisms deserve our moral consideration? Do we know anything about what it's like (or not) to be an AI? To what extent is the perception of time linked to the speed at which one's brain...2024-03-211h 13

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow to have a positive impact with your career (with Benjamin Hilton)Read the full transcript here. What's the best way to think about building an impactful career? Should everyone try to work in fields related to existential risks? Should people find work in a problem area even if they can't work on the very "best" solution within that area? What does it mean for a particular job or career path to be a "good fit" for someone? What is "career capital"? To what extent should people focus on developing transferable skills? What are some of the most useful cross-domain skills? To what extent should people allow their passions...2024-03-141h 26

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSpencer's takeaways after 200 episodes (with Spencer Greenberg)Read the full transcript here. It's our 200th episode! 🥳 What important things has Spencer gleaned from these 200 episodes? What has he learned about how to have better conversations? On what topics has he updated his views? What makes for a great question?Thank you, listeners, for listening, following, rating, reviewing, supporting, and communicating with us! You've helped the show continue to grow, improve, and thrive! StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsAlexandria D. — Research and Special Projects AssistantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny...2024-03-0750 min

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergPsychological change in a single session (with Jessica Schleider)Read the full transcript here. Is it possible to change someone's life with a really short psychological intervention? What features do turning points in people's lives tend to share in common? What single-session interventions can work well for depression, anxiety, and other mental health issues? What expectations should reasonably be held in advance of a single-session intervention? By what mechanisms do these interventions spark the desire for change in participants? How useful is qualitative research in the social sciences? What can single-session interventions accomplish that longer-term interventions can't? Do single-session interventions for teens work equally well for...2024-02-291h 07

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow can Stoicism improve your life? (with Bill Irvine)Read the full transcript here. Why is Stoicism important and useful today? What are the main ideas of Stoicism? How can you tell if you're "living well"? And if you're not living well, then how can you move yourself in that direction? How can we learn to accept and embrace life as it comes without losing our desire to improve ourselves and the world around us? Do people vary in the degree to which Stoic practices might be beneficial for them? What's the relationship between Stoicism and CBT? What do Stoics have to say about the value...2024-02-151h 21

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergIs there a grand unified theory of everyone? (with Michael Muthukrishna)Read the full transcript here. What is a "theory of everyone"? Do the social sciences currently have enough firm knowledge to synthesize such a theory? Have we been getting smarter as a species over the last few hundred years? Were great historical thinkers smarter than today's greatest minds? Why are governments so prone to corruption? What is the COMPASS framework? What is the "no hyphen" immigration model? What is the "umbrella" immigration model? How can governments change how they think and talk about immigration so that racism is less likely to find its way into immigration policy?2024-02-091h 15

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergThe alternate histories and possible futures of nuclear weapons (with Carl Robichaud)Read the full transcript here. Has the world been "lucky" so far with respect to nuclear weapons? How many people have died from nuclear weapons? To what extent do nuclear weapons actually deter aggression? How many countries currently have nuclear weapons or are in the process of building them? How can we discourage continued proliferation of (or even the desire to own) nuclear weapons? How tightly linked are the technologies required to build nuclear energy programs and nuclear weapons programs? How does the International Atomic Energy Agency verify that countries have exactly the nuclear programs and materials...2024-02-031h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow can AIs know what we want if *we* don't even know? (with Geoffrey Irving)Read the full transcript here. What does it really mean to align an AI system with human values? What would a powerful AI need to do in order to do "what we want"? How does being an assistant differ from being an agent? Could inter-AI debate work as an alignment strategy, or would it just result in arguments designed to manipulate humans via their cognitive and emotional biases? How can we make sure that all human values are learned by AIs, not just the values of humans in WEIRD societies? Are our current state-of-the-art LLMs politically left-leaning...2024-01-251h 19

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSchemas, goals, values, and the pursuit of happiness (with Jeff Perron)Read the full transcript here. What does it mean to have conflicts between our schemas and our values? What is schema therapy? How do schema therapy's claims differ from the "common sense" view that we develop tools for interacting with the world in childhood? How do our "inner critic" and "vulnerable child" connect to our schemas? How do these things differ from the IFS (Internal Family Systems) model of psychotherapy? How do these things map onto Buddhism, Stoicism, and other religious or philosophical traditions? What are the values that lead to a life of happiness? Why are...2024-01-181h 27

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCognitive Behavioral Therapy and beyond (with David Burns)Read the full transcript here. What was therapy like in the years leading up to the advent of CBT? Has CBT now been over-sold? How does CBT differ from "the power of positive thinking"? How can therapists who use CBT avoid invalidating clients' feelings? When, if ever, should people listen to their negative thoughts? To what extent can a person's good qualities contribute to their depression? Can empathy be learned? Is it possible to cure depression in a single psychotherapy session? What is TEAM-CBT? Is exposure therapy cruel? What are some strategies for silencing the voices in...2024-01-112h 20

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergThere are shrinks, and then there are SUPER-shrinks (with Daryl Chow)Read the full transcript here. What is a "super-shrink"? Which factors in the therapist-client relationship are most predictive of positive client outcomes over time: the therapist's personality, the client's personality, the therapist's methodology, or other factor(s)? How can therapists use and teach evidence-based practices and behaviors while also respecting and working within an individual client's belief system? What should clients look for when shopping for therapists? Why do clients often choose to be less open and honest with their therapists than would be beneficial for them? How can non-therapists be good, therapeutic friends to others?2024-01-041h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergBringing conspiracy theorists back from the brink (with Jesse Richardson)Read the full transcript here. Have conspiracy theories been more prevalent, more persuasive, or more convoluted in the last few decades than at other points in human history? Is the presence of conspiracy theorists a feature of every society? The phrase "conspiracy theory" usually implies a false theory, even though some are eventually proven to be true; so how can we update our language to better differentiate between disconfirmed and not-yet-confirmed conspiracy theories? How can people who've really gone down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole come back back from the brink? More generally, what conditions need to...2023-12-291h 09

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSimulacra levels, moral mazes, and low-hanging fruit (with Zvi Mowshowitz)Read the full transcript here. Why do we leave so much low-hanging fruit unharvested in so many parts of life? In what contexts is it better to do a thing than to do a symbolic representation of the thing, and vice versa? How can we know when to try to fix a problem that hasn't yet been fixed? In a society, what's the ideal balance of explorers and exploiters? What are the four simulacra levels? What is a moral "maze"? In the context of AI, can solutions for the problems of generation vs. evaluation also provide solutions...2023-12-211h 28

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergEffectively encouraging people to give more (with Josh Greene)Read the full transcript here. How can people be encouraged in ways that are more natural and less manipulative to increase the amounts they give to charities? Why are arguments based on the effectiveness of charitable organizations less compelling to most people than we'd like for them to be? What percentages of a social group should be "doves", "hawks", "eagles", or something else? To what extent should our knowledge about our evolutionary history shape our values? Why are children more likely than adults to engage in prosocial behaviors towards strangers? Aside from anecdotal evidence, how do we...2023-12-161h 27

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWe can't mitigate AI risks we've never imagined (with Darren McKee)Read the full transcript here. How can we find and expand the limitations of our imaginations, especially with respect to possible futures for humanity? What sorts of existential threats have we not yet even imagined? Why is there a failure of imagination among the general populace about AI safety? How can we make better decisions under uncertainty and avoid decision paralysis? What kinds of tribes have been forming lately within AI fields? What are the differences between alignment and control in AI safety? What do people most commonly misunderstand about AI safety? Why can't we just turn...2023-12-071h 11

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat tools do students really need in order to become successful humans? (with AJ Crabill)Read the full transcript here. Why did students struggle so much to learn through video meetings during the locked-down days of the pandemic? What are "student-led restorative practices"? What is "self-connection practice"? What tools are students lacking? When is violence the optimal solution to a problem? What are the biggest problems in education right now? What do students need in order to be successful humans? How can schools give students more agency and autonomy? What happens if students refuse to participate in restorative processes? How do our societal goals shape our educational goals?AJ Crabill's...2023-11-301h 04

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergRethinking what it means to learn math (with Eugenia Cheng)Read the full transcript here. What should the goals of math education be? What does it mean to "think well"? Is math real? Why are feelings of bewilderment or confusion so common in math classes but not as common in other subjects? Schools now generally offer reading and writing instruction separately — even though both are important for language use — because the skill sets they require can differ so widely; so how might math education benefit from drawing a similar distinction? What should math classes impart to students that will enable them to engage as citizens with complex or c...2023-11-231h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergValues, principles, and behavior change (with Eric Zimmer)Read the full transcript here. What can we learn from the parable of the two wolves? What is valuism? Do we choose our own intrinsic values? How quickly do our intrinsic values change over time, if at all? How do values and principles relate to one another? Why is behavior change so hard? What conditions need to be met in order for people to change their behavior? How can people make their behavior changes more persistent and less vulnerable to life's ups and downs?Eric Zimmer is a behavior coach with 20 years of experience, a...2023-11-161h 03

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergEscaping a cult: physically, mentally, and emotionally (with Daniella Mestyanek Young)Read the full transcript here. How do the experiences of children born into cults differ from members who join as adults? Why do some cults that grow out of western evangelical Christianity — which is notoriously obsessed with purity culture — often flip the script about sex and turn promiscuity into a virtue? How does age affect the ease with which one internalizes cult programming? To what extent do cult members approve of sexual abuses committed the name of religion? What sort of tactics do cult leaders employ to keep members from leaving? In what ways are militaries like cult...2023-11-091h 17

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWin-Win vs. Moloch, the many-headed monster that may consume us all (with Liv Boeree)Read the full transcript here. Who's Moloch? And what do we mean when we call something "Molochian"? What does healthy competition look like? How can we avoid or extricate ourselves from Molochian scenarios? Are our instincts about fairness and unfairness usually accurate? Is it possible for today's social media giants to create products that people want to use and that are actually good for people to use? What kinds of problems could conceivably be solved by "trustless" solutions? or "high-trust" solutions? Where do you fall on the "rationality-to-woo" spectrum? When do we not want to find rational...2023-11-021h 18

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergDo technological innovations yield net gains in the long run? (with Justin Smith-Ruiu)Read the full transcript here. What are the limits of tech solutionism? Do technological innovations create as many problems as they solve? Or, in other words, do technological innovations improve the world on average over time? Are humans living in the 21st century actually worse off than those that lived in the 11th century? What's the difference between "art" and "content"? If image-generating AIs just produce images that are stylistic averages across all of their training data, then is it even theoretically possible for such models to create art that's edgy, avant-garde, or off the beaten path...2023-10-261h 26

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergMoney, status, power, and sex in nightclubs around the world (with Ashley Mears)Read the full transcript here. What interesting social phenomena can be observed at nightclubs? What are "whales" hoping to achieve by spending big at nightclubs? Trying too obviously to increase social status tends to backfire; so how can people buy status without appearing to do so? What do "promoters" gain from these social interactions? How does their work differ from or overlap with sex work? How can they make money without being seen as "gold-diggers"? What ethnicities tend to comprise these nightclub groups? How do wealthy people attempt to navigate the norms of the various elite substrata...2023-10-191h 22

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergIs bad air quality slowly harming us? (with Richard Bruns)Read the full transcript here. How bad is the air quality in the US and around the world? What's the evidence that certain kinds of particles in the air lead to negative health outcomes? Are there differences in air quality among urban, suburban, and rural areas? And if so, then to what extent are negative health outcomes attributable to air quality rather than to (e.g.) poverty, education, or other confounding factors? What are "PM 2.5" particles? Can some particles be too small to matter? Are all particles of a certain size harmful, or only specific types of...2023-10-121h 24

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergJournalism in the age of AI (with Dylan Matthews)Read the full transcript here. Will large language models (LLMs) replace journalists any time soon? On what types of writing tasks do LLMs outperform humans? Have the US news media become less truth-seeking in recent decades? Or is truth-seeking behavior merely an aberration from a norm of propagandizing? How should we redistribute economic surplus from AI? Have any AI companies committed to a Windfall Clause? Instead of bothering to negotiate with us, wouldn't a superintelligent AI be able to get much more done by first wiping us all out? What are some subtler or less-well-known ways subscription...2023-10-051h 14

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergExperiments for enlightenment and fundamental wellbeing (with Jeffery Martin)Read the full transcript here. Is enlightenment the same as being happy all the time? Or being at peace all the time? Or something else? What is "fundamental wellbeing"? What are the "locations" within fundamental wellbeing? What is "persistent non-symbolic experience"? How effective is the Finders Course? Are control groups necessary when researching enlightenment?Jeffery Martin is the founding director of the Center for the Study of Non-Symbolic Consciousness (nonsymbolic.org) and a research professor and director of the Transformative Technology Lab (transtechlab.org). Prior to his current affiliation with Stanford University, he was Distinguished...2023-09-282h 06

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergMothers who harm their children for attention (with Andrea Dunlop)Read the full transcript here. What is Munchausen syndrome? How does Munchausen syndrome differ from malingering? Does Munchausen usually correlate with lying or exaggerating in other contexts (i.e., pathological lying)? What is "Munchausen by Proxy" (AKA "factitious disorder imposed on another", or FDIA)? Why are women the offenders in the overwhelming majority of cases? What are some consistent patterns of behavior exhibited by people with MBP? What is a "reality distortion field"? How do people with MBP tend to deflect requests for facts? Do such people believe their own stories? How does MBP relate to sociopathy...2023-09-211h 20

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergIs evolutionary psychology just a bunch of "just so" stories? (with Geoffrey Miller)Read the full transcript here. Why do even people who accept evolutionary explanations for most biological phenomena often push back against evolutionary explanations for human psychology? To what extent should humans adjust their behavior in light of evopsych findings? How do evopsych researchers avoid formulating "just so" stories to explain specific behaviors? What can we infer about human behavior from the behaviors of chimps, bonobos, gorillas, or orangutans? What is the evopsych view of incest (which most people seem to find disgusting but which is also one of the most popular porn categories)? Are emotions primarily shaped...2023-09-141h 12

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergSystems of governance built on prediction markets (with Robin Hanson)Read the full transcript here. What is futarchy? Why does it seem to be easier to find social innovations rather than technical innovations? How does it differ from democracy? In what ways might a futarchy be gamed? What are some obstacles to implementing futarchy? Do we actually like for our politicians to be hypocritical to some degree? How mistaken are we about our own goals for social, political, and economic institutions? Do we enjoy fighting (politically) more than actually governing well and improving life for everyone? What makes something "sacred"? What is a tax career agent?2023-09-081h 26

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergUsing metacognitive therapy to break the habit of rumination (with Pia Callesen)Read the full transcript here. What is metacognitive therapy? How does MCT differ from CBT, DBT, and other mental health therapy paradigms? How do we know we're spending time worrying about the right things? How much time spent worrying is actually useful? How aware are we of our own tendencies to ruminate on certain negative thoughts? Does MCT avoid all content-based problem-solving? What is the state of the evidence for MCT?Dr. Pia Callesen is one of Denmark's most educated and experienced metacognitive psychologists. She has more than 25 years of experience as a therapist and...2023-08-3148 min

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergHow quickly is AI advancing? And should you be working in the field? (with Danny Hernandez)Read the full transcript here. Along what axes and at what rates is the AI industry growing? What algorithmic developments have yielded the greatest efficiency boosts? When, if ever, will we hit the upper limits of the amount of computing power, data, money, etc., we can throw at AI development? Why do some people seemingly become fixated on particular tasks that particular AI models can't perform and draw the conclusion that AIs are still pretty dumb and won't be taking our jobs any time soon? What kinds of tasks are more or less easily automatable? Should more...2023-08-241h 08

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCan we choose who we are? (with Gavin Leech)Read the full transcript here. Can we really deeply change who we are? Can we choose our preferences, intrinsic values, or personality more generally? What are some interventions people might use to make big changes in their lives? Why might it be harder to be a generalist than a specialist? What are some of the most well-known "findings" from the social sciences that have failed to replicate? Do some replications go too far? Should we just let Twitter users take over the peer-review process? Why hasn't forecasting made major inroads into (e.g.) government yet? Why does...2023-08-171h 07

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergNormalizing catastrophes and catastrophizing normalcy (with Mike Pesca)Read the full transcript here. Besides the need to attract attention, what are some other drivers behind the news media's tendency to "catastrophize the normal"? To what extent does paltering take place on the politically left and right ends of the new media spectrum? Should journalists try to be as objective and unbiased as possible, or should they strive to make a difference in the world by highlighting particular issues that are important to them? Is the US on the verge of a civil war? Are prophecies of civil war self-fulfilling? Is it (and should it be...2023-08-101h 26

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhat's wrong with society, and how can we fix it? (with Tim Urban)Read the full transcript here. What's wrong with society? And what can we do to fix it? Centuries ago, a person's grandparents lived in a world that was basically identical to that person's world; but what are the implications of living in a time when the rate of technological change is such that our grandparents' world was almost nothing like ours, and ours will be almost nothing like our grandchildren's? How do Tim's concepts of the "primitive mind" and the "higher mind" map onto System 1 and System 2 thinking types? What thinking styles exist along the spectrum from...2023-08-031h 25

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergAI creativity and love (with Joel Lehman)Read the full transcript here. Where does innovation come from? How common is it for "lone wolf" scientists to make large leaps in innovation by themselves? How can we imbue AIs with creativity? Or, conversely, how can we apply advances in AI creativity to our own personal creative processes? How do creative strategies that work well for individuals differ from creative strategies that work well for groups? To what extent are models like DALL-E and ChatGPT "creative"? Can machines love? Or can they only ever pretend to love? We've worried a fair bit about AI misalignment; but...2023-07-271h 02

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergGlimpses of enlightenment through nondual meditation (with Michael Taft and Jeremy Stevenson)Read the full transcript here. How does nondual meditation differ from other forms of meditation? Is nonduality the sort of thing a person can just "get" immediately? What value is provided by the more effortful, less "sudden" forms of meditation? Is there such a thing as full or complete enlightenment? And what would such a state entail? To what extent do nondual meditation teachers agree about what nonduality is? Are glimpses of enlightenment available to everyone? How long does it usually take a person to stabilize their ability to return to a nondual way of seeing the...2023-07-201h 17

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCrumbling institutions, culture wars, and the dismissal economy (with Ashley Hodgson)Read the full transcript here. What is the New Enlightenment? What might it mean to improve our epistemics with regard to institutions? How should we fix imbalanced salience in contexts where misinformation is a problem (like news media)? How have the economics of institutions deteriorated? How can we continually reinvigorate systems so that they remain ungameable and resistant to runaway feedback loops? In the context of government in particular, how can we move away from "one dollar, one vote" and back towards "one person, one vote"? At what levels or layers should institutional interventions be applied? What...2023-07-131h 03

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergVirtual reality, simulation theory, consciousness, and identity (with David Chalmers)Read the full transcript here. What does philosophy have to say about virtual reality (VR)? Under what conditions is "normal" reality preferable to VR? To what extent are VR experiences "real"? How likely is it that we're living in a simulation? What implications would the discovery that we're living in a simulation have for our beliefs about reality? How common is Bayesian thinking among philosophers? How should we think about identity over time if selves can be split or duplicated? What might it look like for our conception of identity to undergo a "fall from Eden"? What...2023-07-061h 19

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergDeep canvassing, street epistemology, and other tools of persuasion (with David McRaney)Read the full transcript here. What is persuasion, and what is it not? How does persuasion differ from coercion? What is the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion? How are the concepts of assimilation and accommodation related to persuasion? Motivated reasoning is usually seen as a cognitive bias or error; but what if all reasoning is motivated? Are we motivated more by physical death or social death? How much evidence would Flat-Earthers need in order to be convinced that Earth is round? What are "deep" canvassing and "street" epistemology? In what contexts are they most effective? Under...2023-06-291h 20

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWill AI destroy civilization in the near future? (with Connor Leahy)Read the full transcript here. Does AI pose a near-term existential risk? Why might existential risks from AI manifest sooner rather than later? Can't we just turn off any AI that gets out of control? Exactly how much do we understand about what's going on inside neural networks? What is AutoGPT? How feasible is it to build an AI system that's exactly as intelligent as a human but no smarter? What is the "CoEm" AI safety proposal? What steps can the average person take to help mitigate risks from AI?Connor Leahy is CEO and...2023-06-221h 25

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergIs AI development moving too fast or not fast enough? (with Reid Hoffman)Read the full transcript here. Many people who work on AI safety advocate for slowing the rate of development; but might there be any advantages in speeding up AI development? Which fields are likely to be impacted the most (or the least) by AI? As AIs begin to displace workers, how can workers make themselves more valuable? How likely is it that AI assistants will become better at defending against users who are actively trying to circumvent assistants' guardrails? What effects would the open-sourcing of AI code, models, or training data likely have? How do actual or...2023-06-151h 01

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhere philosophy meets the real world (with Peter Singer)Read the full transcript here. How have animal rights and the animal rights movement changed in the last few decades? How has the scale of animal product consumption grown relative to human population growth? On what principles ought animal ethics to be grounded? What features of human psychology enable humans to empathize with and dislike animal suffering and yet also eat animal products regularly? How does the agribusiness industry convince people to make choices that go against their own values? What are some simple changes people can make to their diets if they're not ready yet to...2023-06-081h 24

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergLarge language models, deep peace, and the meaning crisis (with Jim Rutt)Read the full transcript here. What are large language models (LLMs) actually doing when they churn out text? Are they sentient? Is scale the only difference among the various GPT models? Google has seemingly been the clear frontrunner in the AI space for many years; so how did they fail to win the race to LLMs? And why are other competing companies having such a hard time catching their LLM tech up to OpenAI's? What are the implications of open-sourcing LLM code, models, and corpora? How concerned should we be about bad actors using open source LLM...2023-06-011h 24

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergCensorship, cancel culture, and truth-seeking (with Iona Italia)When is a certain speech act an opinion versus a call to action? Does that distinction matter for censorship purposes? Why does it seem that human behavior tends towards censorship rather than towards freedom of expression? Is feeling emotionally or politically harmed a valid reason for censoring certain speech acts? Will it always be the case that, given enough time, truth will win out over ignorance, bullshit, misinformation, and lies? What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for creating a society in which truth wins at the end of the day? Why are citizens so often attracted to populist...2023-05-251h 06

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhy are birth rates plummeting? And how much does it matter? (with Malcolm & Simone Collins)Read the full transcript here. What is pro-natalism? How fast are birth rates falling around the world? How long will it take for us to really feel the effects of population collapse? What are the primary drivers of population collapse? How does the current difficulty of raising children compare to other periods in history? What roles do various religions and philosophies play in population dynamics? What are some non-coercive ways to encourage population growth? What constitutes an intergenerationally durable culture?Simone and Malcolm Collins are a husband-wife team driving the pronatalist movement, which seeks to...2023-05-191h 12

Two Psychologists Four BeersInspired Science (with Spencer Greenberg)Yoel and Alexa are joined by Spencer Greenberg, founder of the behavioral science startup incubator Spark Wave and host of the Clearer Thinking podcast. He describes how he became fascinated with psychology and behavior change, and how he's been working to provide empirically-backed strategies for everday tasks, like making decisions or forming habits. He also offers an alternative perspective on open science, arguing that a phenomenon he calls "importance hacking" has been overshadowed by p-hacking in calls for science reform. Greenberg further challenges the Alexa and Yoel to consider whether the "open scientist" will fall short of what can...2022-11-231h 10

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergForecasting the things that matter (with Peter Wildeford)Read the full transcript here. How can we change the way we think about expertise (or the trustworthiness of any information source) using forecasting? How do prediction markets work? How can we use prediction markets in our everyday lives? Are prediction markets more trustworthy than large or respectable news outlets? How long does it take to sharpen one's prediction skills? In (e.g.) presidential elections, we know that the winner will be one person from a very small list of people; but how can we reasonably make predictions in cases where the outcomes aren't obviously multiple-choice (e...2022-10-221h 32

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergOur 100th episode! (with Uri Bram and Spencer Greenberg)Read the full transcript here. Is it possible to be both agreeable and skeptical in conversations? How can you give feedback and challenge people constructively without triggering their automatic self-defense mechanisms? More generally, how can you challenge people intellectually without riling them up emotionally? What skills are needed to be able to have detailed, productive conversations across a wide range of topics? How can you push through plateaus in the process of self-improvement? What are podcasts as a medium good for?Find more about Spencer through his website, spencergreenberg.com. StaffSpencer...2022-04-1458 min

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergFight, flight, freeze, fawn (with Sasha Raskin)Read the full transcript here. When does positivity become toxic? When is it appropriate (or not) to give advice? Can depression really be healed without systemic changes? What are some ways that society at large gaslights people? Why do women sometimes not come forward after sexual assault? What is "freeze or faun"? Do men suffer as much under patriarchy as women?Sasha Raskin is the Founder of A Beautiful Mess (ABM), a mental health organization that runs corporate talks and events to combat loneliness, depression, and mental health stigma, while fostering connection, intimacy, and equality...2022-02-171h 16

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergWhen is suffering good? (with Paul Bloom)Read the full transcript here. When (if ever) can suffering be good? Is there an optimal ratio of pleasure to pain? What is motivational pluralism? Can large, positive incentives be coercive? (For example, is it coercive to offer to pay someone enormous amounts of money to do something relatively benign or even painful or immoral?) How can moving from making judgments about a person's actions to making judgments about their character solve certain moral puzzles? Why do we sometimes make seemingly irrational judgments about the relative badness of certain actions? How does the level of controversy around...2021-11-121h 25

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergScientific Progress and the Replication Crisis (with Geoff Anders)NOTE: The beginning of this conversation touches on some of the same themes that were discussed in the recent episode with Michael Nielsen. After that, though, this conversation heads off in other directions.Is scientific progress speeding up or slowing down? How can we understand and explain the replication crisis in the social sciences? In the context of research, does speed have a quality all its own in the same way that quantity has a quality all its own? What are Geoff and Spencer doing in the social science field that's significantly different from what others are...2020-12-101h 30

Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergTHINKERS Workshop (with Spencer Greenberg)Why is it important to learn about cognitive biases? What are the various modes of nuanced thinking? What kind of mindset do people have to have in order to change their minds? When should we make "gut", intuitive decisions? When should we make careful, measured, reflective decisions?This episode was originally recorded on the THINKERS Workshop show. Watch the original recording here, or visit THINKERS Workshop or THINKERS Notebook to learn more.StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerUri Bram — FactotumMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffi...2020-10-1458 min