Shows
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of ManifoldIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminat...2024-08-0151 min
Theo Jaffee Podcast#16: Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen - Manifold, Manifund, Manifest, prediction markets, and EAStephen Grugett and Austin Chen are co-founders of Manifold Markets, an online play-money prediction market and competitive forecasting platform. Stephen currently serves on the company’s management, while Austin recently stepped down to start Manifund, a unique, open-source grant program. This video is not sponsored in any way by Manifold, Manifund, or Manifest - I just think they’re cool.
Chapters
0:00 - Intro
Part 1: Stephen Grugett
1:20 - Are prediction markets actually bad?
4:11 - Would Manifold use real money if allowed?
5:24 - How Manifold would use...2024-06-131h 23
ManifoldStephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets31:47 Dating markets32:53 The Art of PR...2024-03-0750 min
The New Liberal PodcastPredicting the Future ft. Stephen GrugettWhy is everyone so excited about prediction markets? Stephen Grugett, founder of Manifold Markets, joins the show to discuss all things prediction markets. We talk about why prediction markets are useful, the strange ways in which they might be used in the future, whether or not they're actually as accurate as they claim to be, the ethical considerations in putting everything into a market, and much more. Check out Manifold Markets - https://manifold.markets/ To make sure you hear every episode, join our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/neoliberalpodcast. Patrons get access to e...2023-02-2858 min
InstitutionalizedPrediction Markets with Stephen GrugettThis week we are joined by Stephen Grugett to discuss prediction markets and their future applications.Recommendations:Middlesex: A Novel by Jeffrey EugenidesExpert Political Judgment by Philip E. TetlockDays of Rage by Bryan Burrough Astral Codex Ten SubstackForecasting Substackhttps://manifold.markets2022-09-0752 min
CSPI PodcastMana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard HananiaStephen and James Grugett are programmers, entrepreneurs, and cofounders of the website Manifold Markets, which hosts user-created prediction markets. They join the podcast to discuss the CSPI/Salem Tournament on Manifold Markets, which launched last week. The Grugetts and Richard talk about the origins of Manifold, what differentiates it from other prediction markets, and how their version of creating a new Listen in podcast form or watch on YouTube.Links:* Manifold Markets* CSPI/Salem Tournament on Manifold Markets * Richard Hanania, “Introducing th...2022-08-1533 min
Dwarkesh PodcastStephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing GovernanceStephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.Episode website here.Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:(0:00:00) - Introduction(0:02:29) - Predicting the future(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information(0:06:20) - Potentials(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets2022-05-0550 min
Dwarkesh PodcastStephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing GovernanceStephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.Episode website here.Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps:(0:00:00) - Introduction(0:02:29) - Predicting the future(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information(0:06:20) - Potentials(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction ma...2022-05-0550 min