Shows
MCMP – Mathematical Philosophy (Archive 2011/12)Three contrasts between two senses of coherenceTeddy Seidenfeld (CMU) gives a talk in the talk series "MCMP & Statistics Department" titled "Three contrasts between two senses of coherence" (Joint work with M. J. Schervish and J. B. Kadane – Statistics, CMU). Abstract: B. de Finetti defended two senses of coherence in providing foundations for his theory of subjective probabilities. Coherence 1 requires that when a decision maker announces fair prices for random variables these are immune to a uniform sure-loss - no Book is possible using finitely many fair contracts! Coherence 2 requires that when a decision maker's forecasts for a finite set of random variables are evaluated by Brier Sc...2019-04-2058 min
MCMP – EpistemologyDominance and Elicitation in IP TheoryTeddy Seidenfeld (CMU) gives a talk at the Workshop on Imprecise Probabilities in Statistics and Philosophy (27-28 June, 2014) titled "Dominance and Elicitation in IP Theory". Abstract: I review de Finettis two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1, which is defined in terms of previsions (fair prices) for a set of random variables that are undominated by the status quo previsions immune to a sure-loss and coherence2, which defined in terms of forecasts for random variables that are undominated in Brier score by a rival set of forecasts. I review issues of elicitation associated with these two criteria that differentiate them...2014-07-1400 min