Shows
VoxTalks EconomicsWill AI transform economic growth?
Could AI transform our economies to produce explosive growth? Most economists are sceptical at best. Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia, leader of the CEPR research policy network on AI, thinks the threshold is closer than those models suggest.In his latest work, Korinek, Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, and Thomas Houlden, have built a growth model that captures what happens when AI starts automating AI research itself. Automation does two things simultaneously: it accelerates research, and it offsets the diminishing returns that have historically stopped self-improving processes from compounding. Three reinforcing feedback loops: software quality, hardware...
2026-03-1331 min
Justified PosteriorsBasil Halperin: Leading Indicators for TAI, Conditions for the Singularity, and Tax Policy at the End of HistoryIn this week’s episode of Justified Posteriors, we interview TAI expert and friend of the show Basil Halperin of the University of Virginia. There Basil is doing some of the most fascinating work on the economics of TAI with Anton Korinek and other leading researchers. The first section of our conversation covers Basil’s early career, including jobs at Uber and AQI, how he got interested in AI as a research topic, and his role in managing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship.We then discuss a paper we’ve already covered on the show...
2026-02-091h 29
Future of Life Institute PodcastWhat Markets Tell Us About AI Timelines (with Basil Halperin)Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress. Basil's essay on "Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates": https://basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf Read more about Basil's work here: https://basilhalperin.com/CHAPTERS:
2025-09-011h 36
Justified PosteriorsTechno-prophets try macroeconomics: are they hallucinating?In this episode, we tackle a brand new paper from the folks at Epoch AI called the "GATE model" (Growth and AI Transition Endogenous model). It makes some bold claims. The headline grabber? Their default scenario projects a whopping 23% global GDP growth in 2027! As you can imagine, that had us both (especially Andrey) practically falling out of our chairs. Before diving into GATE, Andrey shared a bit about the challenge of picking readings for his PhD course on AGI and business – a tough task when the future hasn't happened yet! Then, we broke down the GATE model it...
2025-05-191h 06
Justified PosteriorsIf the Robots Are Coming, Why Aren't Interest Rates Higher?In this episode, we tackle an intriguing question inspired by a recent working paper: If artificial general intelligence (AGI) is imminent, why are real interest rates so low?The discussion centers on the provocative paper, "Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates", authored by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Jay Zachary Maslisch. This research argues that today's historically low real interest rates signal market skepticism about the near-term arrival of transformative AI—defined here as either technology generating massive economic growth (over 30% annually) or catastrophic outcomes like total extinction.We found ourselves initially at od...
2025-03-1159 min
Macro Musings with David BeckworthZachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AIZachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI's impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Zach's Twitter: @ZMazlish Zach's Substack Zach's website David Beckworth's...
2024-12-0250 min
No Stupid Questions214. What Does It Take to Survive a Scandal?How do you come back from being “canceled”? Are we more likely to forgive someone if they cry? And what makes a successful public apology? SOURCES:Karen Cerulo, professor emeritus of sociology at Rutgers University.Bill Clinton, former president of the United States.David Gergen, professor emeritus of public leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School; former White House adviser to four U.S. presidents.Benjamin Ho, professor and chair of economics at Vassar College.Monica Lewinsky, activist.John List, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Hou...
2024-10-0638 min
Die ekonomie minuutSolow of produktiwiteitsgroei?In Suid-Afrikacsal ons gereeld sê dat ons het vinnig ekonomiese groei nodig – eintlik ʼn groeicwonderwerk soos wat Sjina beleef het. Mens praat van groei van 5% per jaar vircbaie jare. Maar presies hoe het Sjina dit reg gekry? Basil Halperin het onlangscʼn interessante tweet storm daaroor gemaak.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
2024-08-0702 min
Die ekonomie minuutSolow or TFP growth?In South Africa we often say that we need must faster economic growth - actually a growth miracle, like China experienced. People talk about growth of 5% per year for many years. But how exactly did China get it right? Basil Halperin recently made an interesting tweet storm about it.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
2024-08-0702 min
TYPE III AUDIO (All episodes)"AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years" by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, & J. Zachary Mazlish---client: ea_forumproject_id: curatedfeed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__forecastingnarrator: pwqa: mdsnarrator_time: 4h45mqa_time: 1h30m---In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However, 30- to 50-year real interest rates are low. We argue that this suggests one of two possibilities: Long(er) timelines. Financial markets are often highly effective information aggregators (the “efficient mar...
2023-01-171h 08TYPE III AUDIO (All episodes)"AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years" by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, & J. Zachary Mazlish---client: ea_forumproject_id: curatedfeed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__forecastingnarrator: pwqa: mdsnarrator_time: 4h45mqa_time: 1h30m---In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However, 30- to 50-year real interest rates are low. We argue that this suggests one of two possibilities: Long(er) timelines. Financial markets are often highly effective information aggregators (the “efficient mar...
2023-01-171h 08