Shows
The Great Simplification with Nate HagensWide Boundary News: Japan, Silver, Venezuela, and More – the Biophysical Phase Shift ComethThis week's Frankly inaugurates a new category for videos on The Great Simplification platform, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news (and nervous system dysregulation!), it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them – in Nate's words, 'A biophysical phase shift cometh.' This week's edition of Wide Bo...
2026-01-3031 minThe Great Simplification with Nate HagensWide Boundary News: Japan, Silver, Venezuela, and More – the Biophysical Phase Shift ComethThis week's Frankly inaugurates a new category for videos on The Great Simplification platform, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news (and nervous system dysregulation!), it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them – in Nate's words, 'A biophysical phase shift cometh.' This week's edition of Wide Bo...
2026-01-3031 min
9Natree Sweden[Recension] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Nate Silver) SammanfattadThe Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Nate Silver)
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#prognoser #sannolikhet #statistik #bayesianskmetod #riskbedömning #TheSignalandtheNoise
De...
2025-12-1808 min
9Natree Sweden[Recension] On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything (Nate Silver) SammanfattadOn the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything (Nate Silver)
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#risktagande #sannolikheter #beslutsfattande #osäkerhet #incitament #kalibrering #riskhantering #OntheEdge
Det här är de viktigaste lärdomarna från den...
2025-12-1808 min
Dunc'd On Basketball NBA PodcastNate Silver On the NBA’s Betting IssuesNate Silver of Silver Bulletin knows a little bit about risk and prediction. He joins Dunc’d On to discuss every aspect of this evolving issue. How much should NBA fans care about this scandal? How much does he care as an NBA fan and bettor? Should we be concerned about the overall integrity of NBA games? Why would multi-millionaires like Terry Rozier or Chauncey Billups engage in the alleged behavior? Plus, how should the NBA fix these problems?
Join Dunc’d On Prime! It's the only place to get every episode with Nate & Danny, plus every po...
2025-10-2957 min
ChinaTalkNate Silver on AI, Politics, and PowerNate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword.
In today’s conversation, we discuss…
Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing,
Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making,
The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders,
How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects,
Nate’s hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that c...
2025-09-181h 19ChinaTalkNate Silver on AI, Politics, and PowerNate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword.
In today’s conversation, we discuss…
Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing,
Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making,
The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders,
How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects,
Nate’s hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that c...
2025-09-181h 19
Lo que se sabe no se preguntaEnfoque, Habilidad y Riesgo: Lecciones de Cal Newport y Nate SilverSumérgete en una fascinante conversación que explora las claves del éxito profesional y la productividad en la era de la distracción. Este episodio de 6 minutos, ideal para profesionales, estudiantes y cualquier persona interesada en optimizar su rendimiento, destila las ideas centrales de los aclamados autores Cal Newport y Nate Silver. Basándonos en resúmenes y notas de sus influyentes libros como 'Céntrate (Deep Work)', 'Hazlo tan bien que no puedan ignorarte' de Newport, y 'On the Edge' de Silver, abordamos conceptos cruciales. Descubre la importancia del trabajo profundo para lograr...
2025-09-0306 min
Conversations with TylerNate Silver on Life's Mixed StrategiesIn his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates, why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI f...
2025-08-131h 03
Paul Krugman PodcastLive with Nate SilverAs promised, a live chat with Nate Silver without a single mention of either poker or sports — or, for that matter, monetary policy!Thank you Laura Fenton, Michael Chang, Marty Neumeier, J Dziak, Sonya Lea, and many others for tuning into my live video with Nate Silver! Join me for my next live video in the app. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe
2025-02-271h 06
Armchair Expert with Dax ShepardNate Silver (statistician)Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don’t have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the ad...
2025-02-121h 32
Star Spangled GamblersProblems with Nate Silver's ModelRutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here...
2025-01-1841 min
We Are Not SavedA Review of Nate Silver: The Election and His Book "On the Edge"He talks about the Village, and the River, but what we really need is a Redoubt. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything By: Nate Silver Published: 2024 576 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? There are two different ways of approaching the world: the River, which thinks in terms of numbers, expected values, and quantification and the Village, which is the paternalistic expert class which manifests as the vast bureaucracy. What's the author's angle? I got the impression that Silver just wanted to...
2024-11-2222 min
Pablo Torre Finds OutNate Silver Is Still Gambling with His ReputationTrump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker.Buy Nate Silver's new book:https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/Subscribe to Silver Bulletin:https://www.natesilver.net/
2024-11-2150 minPablo Torre Finds OutNate Silver Is Still Gambling with His ReputationTrump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker.Buy Nate Silver's new book:https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/Subscribe to Silver Bulletin:https://www.natesilver.net/
2024-11-2153 min
What A DayA Polling Surprise Feat. Nate SilverElection Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resid...
2024-11-0425 min
Where It All StartsA Polling Surprise Feat. Nate SilverElection Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of...
2024-11-0427 min
Open to DebateNate Silver on The Art of Risking Everything: Politics, Money, Power At the moment of this episode’s release, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in election polls. How do you embrace risk, make informed decisions, and be prepared for any possible changes? In this episode, FiveThirtyEight founder and author of “On the Edge” Nate Silver discusses with Reason magazine’s Editor-at-Large Nick Gillespie his thoughts on which direction the 2024 election may go and the ways risk-takers cultivate power and drive change. Our Guest: Nate Silver, Leading Political Forecaster; Best-Selling Author; Founder and Former Editor-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight Nick Gillespie, Editor-at-Large of Reason, is th...
2024-11-0153 min
80k After HoursHighlights: #204 – Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruismElection forecaster Nate Silver gives his takes on: how effective altruism could be better, the stark tradeoffs we faced with COVID, whether the 13 Keys to the White House is "junk science," how to tell whose election predictions are better, and if venture capitalists really take risks.This is a selection of highlights from episode #204 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast: Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruism. These aren't necessarily the most important, or even most entertaining parts of the interview — so if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the fu...
2024-10-3019 min
Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria KonnikovaOdd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election BettingEarlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make...
2024-10-3045 min
Larry Wilmore: Black on the AirNate Silver on “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything”Larry weighs in on his recent tour, the newest season of ‘Reasonable Doubt’, and the upcoming presidential election. He’s then joined by writer, statistician, and founder of the site FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver to discuss his newest book ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ (15:27). They begin their conversation by talking about why certain types of people get into gambling and the importance of preparation when going into high stakes competitions (21:08). Nate then details how he got into politics before breaking down the process of his calculations and predictions (31:44). After the break they categorize different types of gamblers into ‘fox’...
2024-10-201h 21
80,000 Hours Podcast#204 – Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruismRob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transcript.On the Edge explores a cultural grouping Nate dubs “the River” — made up of people who are analytical, competitive, quantitatively minded, risk-taking, and willing to be contrarian. It’s a tendency he considers himself a part of, and the River has been doing well for itself in recent decades — gaining cultural influence through success in finance, technology, gambling, philanthropy, and politics, among other pursuits.
2024-10-161h 57
Commonwealth Club of California PodcastNate Silver: On the EdgeProfessional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us a lot about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century, says statistician and analyst Nate Silver. He embedded himself within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman and many others and now comes to Commonwealth Club World Affairs to share insight into a range of issues that affect everyone, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.In his bestselling book The Signal and the Noise, Silver showed how forecasting would define the age o...
2024-10-161h 00
The James Altucher ShowThe Ultimate Guide to Risky Decisions: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver: Maria Konnikova and Nate SilverA Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver-yes, the Nate Silver from 538-joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk-whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to...
2024-10-091h 13
Win-Win with Liv Boeree#30 - Nate Silver - Predicting Elections in Chaotic TimesCan we still accurately model elections in such chaotic times? Are prediction markets the future of news?
Nate Silver thinks so - Nate is a renowned election analyst, author and former professional poker player. He's the founder of FiveThirtyEight, whose statistical models revolutionized election forecasting, earning him national acclaim.
His two books "On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." and "Signal in Noise" are inspirations for today's Win-Win conversation with Liv and Igor. We discuss polling accuracy, the importance of prediction markets like Polymarket, poker thinking, solutions to political polarization, and of course his latest predictions on Trump...
2024-10-031h 35
Modern Wisdom#846 - Nate Silver - How Will The 2024 Election Play Out?Nate Silver is a statistician, writer of Silver Bulletin, and Founder of FiveThirtyEight.No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else.Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the...
2024-10-031h 10
Thinking PokerEpisode 452: On the Edge with Nate Silver
Nate Silver is back on the felt, but there’s a lot more than poker in his new book, On the Edge. He gets deep into it with Andrew and Carlos, discussing everything from the physiology of poker to coaching with Andrew to a an accidental prediction about Carlos.We previously interviewed Nate Silver on Episode 318.Other recommended episodes:Maria KonnikovaEd MillerCarlos WelchJamal HansonMatt GlassmanStoyan ObreshkovJon “Apestyles” Van FleetIsaac HaxtonDick CarsonTom McEvoyGame Theory and Ci...
2024-09-301h 43Thinking PokerEpisode 452: On the Edge with Nate Silver
Nate Silver is back on the felt, but there’s a lot more than poker in his new book, On the Edge. He gets deep into it with Andrew and Carlos, discussing everything from the physiology of poker to coaching with Andrew to a an accidental prediction about Carlos.We previously interviewed Nate Silver on Episode 318.Other recommended episodes:Maria KonnikovaEd MillerCarlos WelchJamal HansonMatt GlassmanStoyan ObreshkovJon “Apestyles” Van FleetIsaac HaxtonDick CarsonTom McEvoyGame Theory and Ci...
2024-09-301h 43
Town Hall Seattle Civics Series375. Nate Silver with Clayton Aldern: On the Edge What can professional risk-takers — poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century? In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, statistician Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his timely and riveting new book, On the Edge, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape — and dominate — so much of modern life. People in "The River" have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and unders...
2024-09-251h 07
Working ItWhy you should take more risks, with Nate SilverEvery career involves choices; every choice involves risk. But being able to size up those risks, and think coolly about which are worth taking, can make the process of choosing between options much easier. The problem? Most of us aren’t actually very good at evaluating risk. In this episode, Isabel Berwick speaks to statistician, writer and sometime poker player Nate Silver to find out how we can take better risks in our careers. Silver, founder of analysis website FiveThirtyEight and author of the new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ explains why fear plays an outs...
2024-09-1817 min
The Daily StoicHow High Risk-Takers Are Shaping Our World | Nate SilverNate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate’s latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society.Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with R...
2024-09-111h 15
How To Academy PodcastSuperstar election forecaster Nate Silver - The Art of Risking EverythingNate Silver's remarkable career has seen him conquer many seemingly unrelated worlds: professional poker, sports journalism, and the political forecasting that made him a star of US politics. He joined us on stage in London to reveal the ideas that glue these together - an idea that helps to explain how power, business, and politics really work.There is a new paradigm of power with global importance. This power belongs to a new class of professional risk-takers – including VCs, gamblers, tech moguls like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, and crypto-kings like Sam Bankman-Fried. This cl...
2024-09-101h 11
Best of the SpectatorAmericano: Nate Silver on risk-takers, the US election & the power of luck in politicsLabor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village.
Nate joins Freddy G...
2024-09-0633 min
AmericastCan you predict an election? With Nate Silver…This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a forecasting system which correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and all 50 states in 2012. He also talks to Marianna and Sarah about his new book on risk - On the Edge - and his journey from professional poker playing to politics. HOSTS:
Sarah...
2024-09-0527 min
AmericanoRisk-takers, US election & the power of luck in politics – with Nate SilverLabor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village. Nate joins Freddy G...
2024-09-0433 min
Ways to Change the World with Krishnan Guru-MurthyNate Silver on Trump-Harris election, Elon Musk and AIAmerican political forecaster Nate Silver explains who will win the US election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, why he thinks Elon Musk’s comments during the riots in the UK were acceptable, and how AI will change the world. Silver is the founder of the influential polling and politics website FiveThirtyEight, but now writes on his website Silver Bulletin. He’s just published a new book called ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ where he argues that “professional risk takers” such as low-stakes poker players, crypto kings, venture-capital billionaires and hedge fund managers are...
2024-09-0342 min
Adam Carolla ShowComedian Gary Vider + Statistician/Poker Player Nate SilverComedian Gary Vider joins the show to discuss his podcast “#1 Dad” and his con-man father who inspired it. They also talk about how he got his start in stand-up and the comedians who helped him along in his early days.
Next, Leah Knauer returns to read the news including stories about JLo filing for divorce from Ben Affleck, a colonoscopy doctor allegedly not hearing a patient screaming because he didn’t have his hearing aid in, a new non-dating app that connects groups of people just for meals, and a survey that found Fresno to have the most chivalrous men in Cal...
2024-08-222h 00
KQED's ForumNate Silver on the Art of Risking EverythingWhat can we learn from professional risk-takers—poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— about how to navigate the uncertainty of the twenty first century? Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, seeks to answer that question in his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” In Silver’s world view, risk takers are adept with details and planning, they are not motivated by money, they practice conscientious contrarianism, and they are all around us. We talk to Silver about his book, his poker playing and what the polls tell us about the Novemb...
2024-08-2157 min
Conversations with TylerNate Silver on Risk-takers, Politicians, and Poker PlayersIn his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling's origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he's been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI's impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried's place in "the River," the trait effective altruists need to develop...
2024-08-2159 min
DoughboysNate Silver on the Art of Risking EverythingMost humans are cautious by nature. We naturally like to do what’s comfortable and safe. But comfortable and safe don’t usually lead to. . . well, success. In fact, the most successful people in the world share something in common: They love risk. That’s true of the best poker players, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and crypto traders. All of these people consider statistics; they embrace uncertainty; and they make bold predictions that ultimately pay off for themselves—and sometimes for humanity. How do they do it? Our guest today, Nate Silver, has a theory on what drives successful people, how t...
2024-08-2058 min
Honestly with Bari WeissNate Silver on the Art of Risking EverythingMost humans are cautious by nature. We naturally like to do what’s comfortable and safe. But comfortable and safe don’t usually lead to. . . well, success. In fact, the most successful people in the world share something in common: They love risk. That’s true of the best poker players, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and crypto traders. All of these people consider statistics; they embrace uncertainty; and they make bold predictions that ultimately pay off for themselves—and sometimes for humanity. How do they do it?...
2024-08-2058 min
Hello Monday with Jessi HempelNate Silver on How to Embrace Risk and Enhance Your LifeJoin Jessi as she interviews Nate Silver, renowned statistician and author of On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. Known for his pioneering work in political forecasting and data analysis, Nate founded the website FiveThirtyEight and gained prominence with his accurate predictions for the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. In this episode, Nate draws on his expertise to offer practical advice on evaluating major decisions and navigating uncertainty. Discover how taking calculated risks can boost your career, education, and investments, as Nate reveals the essential traits of successful risk-takers and provides insights on balancing risk and caution effectively.Join...
2024-08-1931 min
The Prof G Pod with Scott GallowaySmart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate SilverNate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoughts on Kamala Harris’s VP pick. Follow Nate, @NateSilver538.Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod:
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2024-08-1542 min
Say MoreNate Silver on Politics, Poker, and Risking it All
Nate Silver is famous for using statistics to predict elections. He’s a self-professed “numbers guy” and likes to use math to make complicated decisions. Nate’s new book ‘On the Edge’ is about people who take big calculated risks, for better or for worse. Nate says he and his fellow risk takers are members of a community called “The River.” On this episode of Say More, Nate takes Shirley on a guided tour. They also talk about politics and why polls are sometimes misused. Email us at saymore@globe.com. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and...
2024-08-1529 min
Squawk PodLife Bets with Nate Silver & Social Security’s Security 08/14/24FiveThirtyEight founder and political prognosticator Nate Silver is out with a new book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” Silver discusses the margin for error in 2024 Presidential election polling, as well as the art of risk and betting on everything, from sports to elections. On the 89th anniversary of Social Security, CNBC’s Sharon Epperson reports that 69% of the Americans polled by CNBC ranked social security a top issue in deciding their votes in the election, and over 70% of adults polled were concerned about the program running out. Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley explains the program’s...
2024-08-1430 min
Big Technology PodcastWhy Extreme Risk Takers Are Winning — With Nate SilverNate Silver is a statistician, election prognosticator, and bestselling author. He joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss his reporting on extreme risk takers, and why the seem to be winning. Tune in to hear Silver's theory on how society bifurcates into the risk-forward, probability oriented thinkers (The River) and the safety seeking, status oriented community (The Village). In this episode, we discuss poker, sports betting, effective altruism, VC, AI research, and existential threads to humankind. Tune in for a fascinating deep dive from one of The River's foremost instigators. To buy Silver's book, On The Edge, check...
2024-08-141h 16
The Megyn Kelly ShowElon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the el...
2024-08-131h 39
PokerNews Life Outside PokerNate Silver Says Don't Be a Nit in LifeLife Outside Poker is a new podcast for PokerNews hosted by Connor Richards that seeks to pull back the curtain on poker players and allow viewers and listeners to get to know them on a personal level. In the 15th episode, Connor speaks with statistician Nate Silver about his new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, election forecasting, founding and leaving FiveThirtyEight, his bad beats at feature tables, and co-hosting the Risky Business podcast with Maria Konnikova. Silver also discusses the upcoming US presidential election, sports analytics, Limit Hold'em, his Silver Bulletin newsletter and...
2024-08-131h 06
BanklessNate Silver: SBF, The 2024 Election, & Prediction MarketsNate Silver is a statistician, writer, and political analyst, widely recognized for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections. He's now released an exceptional new book titled, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." The book delves into the world of risk, game theory, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and poker—fields where the stakes are high and the outcomes uncertain. One of the central themes of the book is crypto, which is why we were thrilled to have Nate join us. Nate is not just a respected analyst; he's one of us—a fellow degen who shar...
2024-08-131h 17
The Ezra Klein ShowNate Silver on Kamala Harris’s Chances and the Mistakes of the ‘Indigo Blob’Risk has been on my mind this year. For Democrats, the question of whether Joe Biden should drop out was really a question about risk – the risk of keeping him on the ticket versus the risk of the unknown. And it’s hard to think through those kinds of questions when you have incomplete information and so much you can’t predict. After all, few election models forecast that Kamala Harris would have the kind of momentum we’ve seen the last few weeks.Nate Silver’s new book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,” is all about t...
2024-08-131h 06
Free Audiobook: Because Folding Laundry Is More Exciting With a StoryOn the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything - Nate SilverListen to this audiobook in full for free onhttps://hotaudiobook.com/freeTitle: On the Edge: The Art of Risking EverythingAuthor: Nate SilverNarrator: TBDFormat: UnabridgedLength: 15:05:26Language: EnglishRelease date: 08-13-2024Publisher: PGRH UKGenres: Business & Economics, Career Development, Science & Technology, MathematicsSummary:Brought to you by Penguin.
From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes
In the bestselling The Signal and th...
2024-08-133h 05
Immerse Yourself In This High-Impact Full Audiobook — Perfect Between Meetings.On the Edge by Nate SilverPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/2/audible/57425to listen full audiobooks.
Title: On the Edge
Author: Nate Silver
Narrator: Nate Silver
Format: mp3
Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
Release date: 08-13-24
Ratings: 4 out of 5 stars, 424 ratings
Genres: Mathematics
Publisher's Summary:
In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and bl...
2024-08-133h 05
Tune In To Your Day With A Powerful Full Audiobook.On the Edge by Nate SilverPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/2/audible/57492to listen full audiobooks.
Title: On the Edge
Author: Nate Silver
Narrator: Nate Silver
Format: mp3
Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
Release date: 08-13-24
Ratings: 4.5 out of 5 stars, 5 ratings
Genres: Mathematics
Publisher's Summary:
In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and bl...
2024-08-133h 05
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and IdeasNate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and RationalityBeing rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking E...
2024-08-121h 11
Sean Carroll's Mindscape285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and RationalityBeing rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, S...
2024-08-121h 11
The Next Big IdeaON THE EDGE (Part 1): Nate Silver on Politics, Poker, and Risk-TakingYou probably know Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, as the statistician with an uncanny knack for predicting election results. What you may not know is that Nate has never been comfortable inside the Beltway. Before his election models made him famous, he made his living playing poker, and it's in that world that he feels most at home. Recently, Nate has been reflecting on his poker-playing pals, and he realized many of them are part of a broader community of analytically-minded, ultra-competitive, not-afraid-to-bet-the-house individuals that he now calls "the River." Members of the River are everywhere. They're tech...
2024-08-1242 min
Motley Fool MoneyNate Silver on Gambling, VCs, and AIWhat can we learn from the people who put everything on the line? Nate Silver talked to just about every type of gambler – poker players, venture capitalists, crypto traders – to find out. Silver joins Ricky Mulvey for a conversation about expected value, Presidential polling, and risk. They also discuss:
Why Adam Neumann keeps getting money.
DraftKings’s surcharge for winning bets.
Why bubbles are bigger in meme-ified worlds.
Companies mentioned: DKNG, MSFT Host: Ricky MulveyGuest: Nate SilverProducer: Mary Long
2024-08-1051 min
Just Asking QuestionsNate Silver: How Likely Is a Kamala Harris Presidency?How likely is a Kamala Harris presidency? Just asking questions.
Join Zach Weissmueller, Reason senior producer, and Liz Wolfe, Reason associate editor, at 12:30 p.m. ET for a live discussion on their show Just Asking Questions with Nate Silver, statistician and author of the new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. Silver founded the renowned polling aggregator and politics website FiveThirtyEight and now runs his own Substack, Silver Bulletin.
They'll discuss Vice President Kamala Harris' rise in the polls, the selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a vice presidential candidate, the "lo...
2024-08-081h 08
Tech Nest: The Proptech PodcastA New Era in Lending with Kirill Bensonoff, Co-founder and CEO of New SilverKirill Bensonoff, CEO and Co-founder of New Silver, a fintech company that provides loans for fix and flip projects, joins Tech Nest to discuss the current state of the real estate market, the challenges faced by investors, and how New Silver differentiates itself from other lenders. Kirill explains how their technology, including a pricing engine, streamlines the loan process and offers convenience to borrowers. He also discusses their unique approach to sourcing capital, including their partnership with MakerDAO, a decentralized autonomous organization. Kirill shares his predictions for the future of the real estate market and the impact of AI...
2024-08-0633 min
Countdown with Keith OlbermannKAMALA DOUBLES POLL LEAD - UP BY 4; FAVORED BY NATE SILVER - 8.6.24SERIES 3 EPISODE 3: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: The selection of Kamala Harris's Vice President is a big story and I'm really interested and it could be Joe Biden and I'd go "Whatever You Want, Queen." The lead story today is ANOTHER poll explosion She’s ahead in the Morning Consult poll 48-44. A week ago she was ahead by ONE point. Two weeks ago TRUMP was ahead by TWO points. That's a seven point swing since President Biden bowed out. They polled on six key attributes in seven swing states: she wins not to...
2024-08-0648 min
Tetragrammaton with Rick RubinNate SilverNate Silver is a statistician, poker player, and political forecaster. Silver transformed his affinity for mathematics as a child into analyzing and predicting sports and elections alike. In 2008, Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website and blog. Soon after, he was named as one of the world’s 100 most influential people by Time Magazine, recognized for the remarkable accuracy of his election forecasting system. Delving into the world of probability, statistics, and ultimately seeking truth from data, Silver is the best-selling author of The Signal and the Noise and On The Edge. ------T...
2024-07-312h 23
Mixed Signals from Semafor MediaWhen Biden Lost It & Nate Silver's BetWhere were you when Joe Biden lost the debate to Trump? Max was in the CNN Spin Room, Nayeema watched with a cabal of crypto bros and Ben was at home scrolling X. They discuss the moment the debate was decided (9:22 or 9:23 EST) — and who gets to call it. Then, Ben and Nayeema turn to an interview with political statistician and professional gambler Nate Silver to talk election prediction, Biden’s age, and why Nate’s new Silver Bulletin model gives Trump a 66% chance of winning the election in November. Finally, Nayeema makes us eat our spinach with a q...
2024-06-2857 min
Free Audiobook: Because Folding Laundry Is More Exciting With a StorySignal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Nate SilverListen to this audiobook in full for free onhttps://hotaudiobook.com/freeTitle: Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of PredictionAuthor: Nate SilverNarrator: Mike ChamberlainFormat: UnabridgedLength: 16:21:45Language: EnglishRelease date: 06-27-2024Publisher: PGRH UKGenres: Science & Technology, MathematicsSummary:Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11...
2024-06-274h 21
Fuel Your Mind With A Full Audiobook That Is Simply Edge-Of-Your-Seat.The Signal and the Noise by Nate SilverPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/2/audible/57555to listen full audiobooks.
Title: The Signal and the Noise
Author: Nate Silver
Narrator: Mike Chamberlain
Format: mp3
Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
Release date: 06-27-24
Ratings: 5 out of 5 stars, 1 rating
Genres: Mathematics
Publisher's Summary:
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New...
2024-06-274h 21
9natree[Review] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (Nate Silver) SummarizedThe Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (Nate Silver) Buy on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007V65R54?tag=9natree-20 Read more: https://mybook.top/read/B007V65R54/ #predictiveanalytics #statisticalliteracy #Bayesianthinking #cognitivebiases #datainterpretation #uncertaintymanagement #TheSignalandtheNoise These are takeaways from this book. Firstly, Understanding the Difference Between Signal and Noise, One of the foundational concepts Nate Silver discusses in 'The Signal and the Noise' is the distinction between 'signal' and 'noise.' The signal represents the real, underlying patterns or information that accurately indicates or...
2024-04-2505 min
Wiser Than Yesterday: Educational Book Reviews and SummariesThe Signal and The Noise - Nate SilverMaking good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering practical insights.A little statistical training can go a long way! We geek out on Bayes' Theorem, discuss why poker develops useful reasoning skills, and tackle investing decisions using probabilities. Improving predictions requires tracking your results and having the courage to map what you don't know.
2024-02-0235 min
People I (Mostly) Admire117. Nate Silver Says We're Bad at Making PredictionsData scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why he’d rather write a newsletter than an academic paper, and how online poker led him to the world of politics. RESOURCES"Not Everyone Who Disagrees With You Is a Closet Right-Winger," by Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin, 2023)."The 2 Key Facts About U.S. Covid Policy That Everyone Should Know," by Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin, 2023)."Excess Death Rates for Republican and Democratic Registered Voters in Flor...
2023-10-2842 min
English Academic Vocabulary Booster5080. 98 Academic Words Reference from "Nate Silver: Does racism affect how you vote? | TED Talk"This podcast is a commentary and does not contain any copyrighted material of the reference source.
We strongly recommend accessing/buying the reference source at the same time.
■Reference Source
https://www.ted.com/talks/nate_silver_does_racism_affect_how_you_vote
■Post on this topic (You can get FREE learning materials!)
https://englist.me/98-academic-words-reference-from-nate-silver-does-racism-affect-how-you-vote-ted-talk/
■Youtube Video
https://youtu.be/wuXYQn8jCPU (All Words)
https://youtu.be/a6b2j2n-Gcw (Advanced Words)
https://youtu.be/AzW...
2023-09-221h 29
House of StraussHoS: Nate SilverLike so many people, I was shocked to see Disney separate Nate Silver from his famous website, 538. How could this happen? What’s next for Nate, post-538? We get into it. Our jumping off point is Nate’s new Substack, Silver Bulletin, which I thoroughly enjoy. That site covers topics ranging from poker to politics and, of course, pro sports. So we talk about that, plus discuss what the “Indigo Blob” is. This podcast outline, put together by the astute Sam Schuette, is of a conversation that includes but is not limited to the following:* S...
2023-08-081h 39
Book Insights PodcastHow to predict the future | Book Insights on The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver*Our brains are machines that are always simplifying and approximating, focusing on some detail that captures our attention. Those details may be important, but we are only a brain within a vast universe, and our biases often lead us to bad predictions.
*Drawing on his groundbreaking forecasting work, Nate Silver surveys the field of prediction and discusses how to identify a meaningful signal in amongst a barrage of data.
*Only forecasting that arises from many points of data, both quantitative and qualitative, and that tries to take account of all biases, is likely to be co...
2023-02-1533 min
Dan "Jungleman" Cates"Jungleman" Dan Cates and Nate Silver on POKER, sports betting, New World Order and more!GTO Wizard - The best way to learn and practice GTO!Use this link to sign up: https://gtowizard.com/junglemanNate Silver is a leading statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, an award-winning website focused on statistical analysis of politics, sports and science.As a former syndicated columnist for The New York Times, Silver first gained national attention during the 2008 presidential election, when he correctly predicted the results of the primaries and the presidential winner in 49 states. A diehard baseball fan, Silver is also credited with developing PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and...
2022-10-151h 31
Plain English with Derek ThompsonNate Silver on Why This Midterm Election Could Be the Weirdest in DecadesEarlier this year, it appeared that Democrats were going to get destroyed in the midterms. Joe Biden's approval rating was in the toilet, inflation was raging, and everything was going wrong. It wouldn't have been historically shocking if Democrats lost seats in November. The party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, thanks in part to the electorate's preference for balance.But then something weird happened. Joe Biden's polls went up. And up. And up. Republican Senate nominees starting flailing across the country. Today, Democrats are favored to keep the Senate, and they have doubled their...
2022-09-0255 min
It’s not that simpleELECTIONS with Nate SilverIs it possible to predict the future? What is “data journalism”? Have polls become increasingly unreliable? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Nate Silver in this episode of “It’s Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation.
A statistician famous for correctly predicting the results of the 2008 US presidential election in 49 of the 50 states of the Union, Nate Silver is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight.com, which uses “data journalism” to cover areas such as politics, science, health, and sports. Silver started out as a baseball statistical analyst (having written several books o...
2022-07-2127 min
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers thinkThis talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist 0:00 Nate Silver gives a presentation on how gamblers think 19:25 Bestie Q&A with Nate Silver: building probabilistic models, getting blamed for Trump winning in 2016, polarization reality, 2022 midterms Follow Nate: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538 Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
2022-05-2940 min
Foundational Steps: The SHOWEp. 005: NATE SCHOLZ - “KEEP THE FAITH, FINDING AND LOSING RELIGION”In this episode I’m talking with Nate Scholz. SAG/AFTRA Actor & Host, Director of Sales & Marketing at DCLA, Freelance Fashion Consultant & Clothing Designer
We talk about his wrong and rightful expulsion from school, his finding and losing religion and how important family is to him. This is a long and interesting episode that could have gone for several more hours.
Nate has many interests, including UFO’s, psychedelics and more which he talks about on his show Nate Night Talks or seen on his Instagram stories and feed.
Links to Nate:
In...
2022-03-012h 22
Foundational Steps: The SHOWEp. 005: NATE SCHOLZ - “KEEP THE FAITH, FINDING AND LOSING RELIGION”We talk about his wrong and rightful expulsion from school, his finding and losing religion and how important family is to him. This is a long and interesting episode that could have gone for several more hours. Nate has many interests, including UFO’s, psychedelics and more which he talks about on his show Nate Night Talks or seen on his Instagram stories and feed. Links to Nate:Instagram: @NateAScholzYouTube: Nate ScholzTwitter: @NateScholzWebsite: NateNightTalks.comYouTube: NateNightTalks...
2022-03-012h 22
Richtig WettenRichtig Wetten #22 - Vom sozialverträglichen Frühableben des Wett-Insiders, von Nate Silver und von ein paar anderen FragenSebastian & Joachim sprechen über das Hinscheiden des Wett-Insiders und über die Sportwetten-Expertise von Nate Silver (sowie seine Prognosegüte im Politikwettenbereich). Ferner beantwortet Joachim auch ein paar Hörerfragen.Joachims Wettblog: Crimsoncorporation.de | Joachim auf Twitter: @crimsonceo______________________________________Notizen & Links(00:00) Intro/Begrüßung(00:45) Die Konkurrenz für Richtig Wetten wird kleiner(01:15) Gedanken zum Wett-Insider-Aus(02:53) Ökonomische Überlegungen und BildBet(04:08) Entscheidung auf politischer Ebene? (siehe auch: Bremens Innensenator geht wegen Sportwettartikeln gegen »Bild«-Zeitung vor)(05:20) Das ewige Geldproblem(06:28) Die optimale Länge(07:56...
2022-01-2259 min
SSACA Conversation with Andrew Yang and Nate SilverNate Silver - Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight
Andrew Yang - New York City Mayoral Candidate
New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Yang likes MATH. So does Nate Silver. In this special one-on-one conversation, hear from Yang as he reflects on life since his 2020 presidential campaign, the role of data in reaching voters, and what it was like to be a Knicks fan in the Jeremy Lin era.
2021-09-0245 min
Doug Polk PodcastNate Silver's Poker Strategy & 2024 POTUS PredictionsFiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver joins Doug Polk to talk about poker, politics, COVID, Twitter beefs and more.0:52 Nate joins2:55 Political betting, FiveThirtyEight vs sports betting markets11:00 2020 Primaries, Superdelegates16:29 Polarization of the US population22:30 WSOP Covid restrictions34:28 Nonsensical Covid policies41:42 Nate's upcoming book on gambling/risk46:22 Nate's poker background, talking all things poker1:25:38 The Nassim Taleb beef1:29:35 Why is Nate trending on Twitter today?, Covid talk1:48:48 Stimulus checks, GOP's future1:59:32 2024 Election predictions?2:07:13 Parting words, Nate's WSOP schedule
2021-08-312h 09
So Watcha Wanna Talk AboutIs Silver Set Up For a Shirt Squeeze ? - How to Hedge Against Inflation - Episode 17 prt 2Is Silver Set Up For a Shirt Squeeze ? - How to Hedge Against Inflation - Episode 17 prt 2
Enter Code Free Sample to try Cyn's Crunchy Jerky for free Cynscrunchyjerky.com
Buy London and The Googly Goo here https://www.amazon.com/London-Googly-Goo-Meredith-Dillon/dp/B08S2P8HJJ/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2XDBX22UBORS2&dchild=1&keywords=london+and+the+googly+goo&qid=1615924461&sprefix=london+and+the+googl%2Caps%2C161&sr=8-1
Follow us on social https://linktr.ee/FitfutureMD
Nate Johnson is a Venture Capitalist and Chemist from East Carolina University and is...
2021-07-1910 min
Policy PunchlineIs Nate Silver Worse than Crackhead Jim? The Success and Tautology of Election ForecastingNate Silver, widely considered as the preeminent election forecaster, uses Bayesian methods in his models. What is Bayesian statistics? It just happens that some of our team members have been studying Bayesian concepts, so we hope this explanation could be somewhat helpful in informing you of the foundational methodology that Silver uses to forecast.
The questions we discuss include:
- Was Nate Silver right in 2016? (He was and wasn’t).
- Can we even judge whether a forecaster is right or wrong?
- Are elections chaotic systems that we cannot predict or controlled systems that we can?
- Should forecasters inc...
2020-11-091h 38Larry Wilmore: Black on the AirNate Silver on Election Polls and Forecasting the 2020 Presidential ElectionLarry is joined by Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, to discuss how election polls are taken. The two also look at some of the key states expected to make an impact on Election Day.Host: Larry WilmoreGuest: Nate Silver Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2020-10-311h 09
The Gray Area with Sean IllingNate Silver on why 2020 isn't 2016As you may have heard, there's a pretty important election coming up. That means it's time to bring back the one and only Nate Silver. Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, boasts one of the best election forecasting records of any analyst in the last 15 years. His forecasting models successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US presidential election and all 50 states in 2012. And in 2016, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28 percent chance of victory — a significantly higher percentage than virtually any other prominent analyst at the time. He knows...
2020-10-291h 09
In the Bubble with Andy SlavittWhat Do We Really Know? (with Nate Silver)With so many opinions on what we should do next in response to the Coronavirus, Andy focuses on what we really know and what we don’t know— a much longer list. To do this, Andy sits down with 538’s Nate Silver who built an industry on predictions and has been focused on what the data says about the spread of COVID-19, what’s working, and how we get back to normal life. https://www.lemonadamedia.com/inthebubble https://www.teladoc.com/ https://art19.com/shows/coronavirus-daily-briefing https://www.expressvpn.com/bubble https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grow...
2020-04-2244 min
The PollstersNate Silver of FiveThirtyEightOn this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.Iowa PrimaryThe three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to a...
2020-02-0632 min
Citations NeededEpisode 87: Nate Silver and the Crisis of Pundit BrainNate Silver tell us Joe Biden's inconsistent political beliefs are, in fact, a benefit. They're "his calling card" and evidence he "reads the room pretty well". Venality, we are told, is "a normal and often successful [mode] for a politician." Insurgent progressive groups like Justice Democrats shouldn't call Biden out of touch with the base because, Silver tell us, "only 26 of the 79 candidates it endorsed last year won their primaries, and only 7 of those went on to win the general election." On Twitter and his in columns, high-status pundit Nate Silver, has made a career reporting on...
2019-09-1858 min
I Doubt It Podcast#305 – “Master of Science Brittany, Anthony Weiner's Latest, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump's Continued Controversies, Nate Silver's Evaluation of Impeachment Odds, and A$$hole of Today ft. Memorial Middle School in Georgia.”Jesse and Brittany discuss Brittany’s graduation, Anthony Weiner’s guilty plea in his underage sexting case, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump’s continued missteps and controversies related to James Comey, Nate Silver’s latest on the odds of a Trump impeachment, and A$$hole of Today featuring a middle school in Georgia. This episode is sponsored by Suji’s Korean Cuisine: http://www.sujiskorean.com...
The post #305 – “Master of Science Brittany, Anthony Weiner’s Latest, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump’s Continued Controversies, Nate Silver’s Evaluation of Impeachment Odds, and A$$hole of Today ft. Memorial Middle School in Georgia.” a...
2017-05-221h 13I Doubt It Podcast#305 – “Master of Science Brittany, Anthony Weiner's Latest, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump's Continued Controversies, Nate Silver's Evaluation of Impeachment Odds, and A$$hole of Today ft. Memorial Middle School in Georgia.”Jesse and Brittany discuss Brittany’s graduation, Anthony Weiner’s guilty plea in his underage sexting case, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump’s continued missteps and controversies related to James Comey, Nate Silver’s latest on the odds of a Trump impeachment, and A$$hole of Today featuring a middle school in Georgia. This episode is sponsored by Suji’s Korean Cuisine: http://www.sujiskorean.com...
The post #305 – “Master of Science Brittany, Anthony Weiner’s Latest, Dollemocracy featuring Donald Trump’s Continued Controversies, Nate Silver’s Evaluation of Impeachment Odds, and A$$hole of Today ft. Memorial Middle School in Georgia.” a...
2017-05-221h 13
The Maine ShowElection Day Edition: Nate Silver at the MSF (just the politics)In this Election Day podcast edition, Nate Silver's political analysis from the Maine Sciences Festival is presented without interruption and stripped down from the other content during his live chat on stage with MSP host Ben Sprague. This podcast episode was recorded in March 2016 when Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were not yet their parties's official nominees, but much of the analysis and prediction holds true to this day. Follow Nate Silver on Twitter @natesilver538 and www.fivethirtyeight.com. Follow Ben Sprague on Twitter @bensprague.
2016-11-0829 min
Employee of the MonthNATE SILVER on polling errors, media refusing to call sexual assault, and e-mail hacksNate Silver the leading political pollster in history, and is as deft with sports and social issues. Silver explores all three arenas as the Founder and Editor-in-Chief at 538, which he sold to ESPN, after a stint at The New York Times.In our interview, which was recorded live at Joe's Pub at The Public Theater, Nate and I spoke about how this 2016 election is unprecedented, who gets polled and why, and what set Silver, a wunderkind, apart as a kid. Nate also spoke about managing his staff at ESPN's 538, why he failed to predict...
2016-11-0234 min
3 Chanchitos30. Nate Silver, mujeres y el Nobel y la expansión del UniversoEpisodio número 30 de Los tres chanchitos. Recuerda que nos puedes escuchar en primicia los martes a las 22:30 en SevillaWebRadio (y también los jueves).
1.- Nate Silver
Alberto nos habla de Nate Silver es un estadístico americano que se hizo famoso por sus acertadas predicciones en las dos pasadas elecciones presidenciales de EE.UU. En su exitoso blog fivethirtyeight.com se tratan temas de política, ciencia, deportes, economía...
2.- Mujeres y el Nobel
Es evidente que el bajo número de galardonadas con el Premio Nobel es preocupante. Clara nos plantea dicho tema.
3.- La expansión del U...
2016-10-251h 01
I Doubt It Podcast#228 – “HeadNeck Update, Istanbul Reactions, SCOTUS Abortion Decision, Nate Silver Predicts, George Will Abandons GOP, Ashleigh Banfield vs. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's SIX Bankruptcies & Questions Hillary Clinton's Faith, and Tony Robbin's Hot Coal Dilemma.”Jesse and Brittany discuss Jesse’s doctor’s appointment and give the audience some updates, Istanbul’s terrorist attack including details and reactions, SCOTUS decision on abortion in Texas, Nate Silver’s general election predictions for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, lifetime Republican George Will’s choice to leave his party because of Donald Trump, Ashleigh Banfield’s reaction to Michael...
The post #228 – “HeadNeck Update, Istanbul Reactions, SCOTUS Abortion Decision, Nate Silver Predicts, George Will Abandons GOP, Ashleigh Banfield vs. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s SIX Bankruptcies & Questions Hillary Clinton’s Faith, and Tony Robbin’s Hot Coal Dilemma.” appeare...
2016-06-3058 minI Doubt It Podcast#228 – “HeadNeck Update, Istanbul Reactions, SCOTUS Abortion Decision, Nate Silver Predicts, George Will Abandons GOP, Ashleigh Banfield vs. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's SIX Bankruptcies & Questions Hillary Clinton's Faith, and Tony Robbin's Hot Coal Dilemma.”Jesse and Brittany discuss Jesse’s doctor’s appointment and give the audience some updates, Istanbul’s terrorist attack including details and reactions, SCOTUS decision on abortion in Texas, Nate Silver’s general election predictions for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, lifetime Republican George Will’s choice to leave his party because of Donald Trump, Ashleigh Banfield’s reaction to Michael...
The post #228 – “HeadNeck Update, Istanbul Reactions, SCOTUS Abortion Decision, Nate Silver Predicts, George Will Abandons GOP, Ashleigh Banfield vs. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s SIX Bankruptcies & Questions Hillary Clinton’s Faith, and Tony Robbin’s Hot Coal Dilemma.” appeare...
2016-06-3058 minChicken or Egg: A Collaboration from On the Media + FiveThirtyEight (On the Media)Nate Silver on 2016: The Sky Is OrangeMonths ago, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver crunched the numbers and found it was extremely unlikely that Trump would become the nominee. He wasn't wrong, and yet here we are. So why is this election so unpredictable? Silver talks to Brooke about why the rules of politics seem to be broken this year, and how electoral predictions are based on a short history. Plus: could the country be due for a political realignment?
Nate is also author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't.
2016-03-0409 min