Shows
ManifoldAIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research, legal analysis, and complex document processing.https://github.com/lyang36/IMO25/blob/main/IMO25.pdfhttps://x.com/hsu_steve...
2025-10-2350 min
ManifoldThe Global AI Race: Z.ai and the View from Beijing — #96Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.https://chat.z.ai/Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_orgChapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background
(05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges
(10:37) - AI Model Comparison and...
2025-10-091h 06
ManifoldSeeking Truth From Facts: Weeks Where Decades Happen — #95This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfactsThe theme of this episode derives from Lenin:“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology
(12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications
(20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement
(25:00) - Trump's South Asian blunder?
(32:14) - The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace
(40:01) - Israel's loss of...
2025-09-2548 min
ManifoldKyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — #94Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other...
2025-09-111h 10ManifoldJoleen Liang: 40M+ kids educated by adaptive AI — #93Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to individual learning patterns.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Joleen Liang: Co-Founder of Squirrel AI
(02:14) - Squirrel AI: Beginnings...
2025-08-2859 minManifoldMax Dama on HFT: Millisecond Algos and Bid/Ask Dynamics — #92Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdfSteve and Max discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Max...
2025-08-1454 minManifoldAndrew Song: Global Cooling with Sulfur Dioxide in the Stratosphere — #91Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climate-modeling-16https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/klaus-lackner-on-carbon-capture-climate-change-and-physics-40Steve and Andrew discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career
(06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience
(11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept...
2025-07-311h 04ManifoldManifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve — #90Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A
(02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics
(09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary
(29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities
(36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense
(45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips
Links related to Q&A...
2025-07-1754 minManifoldOmar Shams: AI Founder and Google AI Agent Lead — #89Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.Steve and Omar discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI
(10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind
(16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs
(33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree
(42:58) - AI and The Workforce
(58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...
2025-07-031h 05ManifoldPatrick McGee: Apple In China — #88Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery. Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373(00:00) - Introduc...
2025-06-1959 minManifoldGODZILLA DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?Read TP Huang on X: https://x.com/tphuang (00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87
(00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict
(02:15) - Details of the Air Battle
(04:40) - Ex...
2025-06-051h 02ManifoldRobots, Small Models, and RL with DeepSeek Alumnus Zihan Wang — #86Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/(00:00) - Introduction
(01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China
(11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US
(16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research
(31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints
(33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models
(34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws
(36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training
(47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture
(01:01:06) - Future of AI a...
2025-05-221h 07ManifoldDan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011(00:00) - Introduction
(01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan
(02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University
(05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation
(14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures
(41:48) - China's Auto Market
(42:38...
2025-05-081h 18ManifoldSeeking Truth From Facts: AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics — #84This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/(00:00) - Introduction
(01:11) - China AI
(02:30) - DeepSeek
(04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance
(08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives
(12:54) - China Meritocracy
(24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China
(37:12) - European Defense and Security
(41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MS...
2025-04-2445 minManifoldIncels, Evo Psych, and Modern Literature with ARX-Han — #83Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."(00:00) - Introduction
(02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel'
(06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences
(13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism
(18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom
(26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships
(32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics
(40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth
(45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning
(48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness
(50:38) - Free Will and Determinism
(52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land
(58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization
(01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction
(01:16:45) - AI and Literature
(01:19:44...
2025-04-101h 25ManifoldCallum Williams: Economics, AI, and Technological Progress — #82Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.(00:00) - Introduction
(02:07) - US-Russia Relations
(03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy
(05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia
(09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion
(14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions
(29:37) - US Wealth Inequality
(40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States
(42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention
(45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior
(50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis
(53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence
(01:06:06...
2025-03-271h 46ManifoldMisha Laskin, Reflection.ai — From Physics to SuperIntelligenceMisha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.https://x.com/MishaLaskinSteve and Misha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education
(03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI
(05:47) - First Startup Experience
(07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning
(08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley
(14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind
(16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models
(26:42) - Challenges...
2025-03-1353 minManifoldTaylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen, Part 2Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction
(01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China
(04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact
(06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough
(11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development
(26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier
(38:01) - Huawei and...
2025-02-271h 25ManifoldKen Liu: Art in the Age of AI — #79Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award.
2025-02-131h 07ManifoldUS-PRC Tech War: DeepSeek AI and 6th Generation Fighters — #78(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power
(00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model
(02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute
(10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations
(15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
(34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology
(42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs
(46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes
(52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities
(01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments
(01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases
(01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China
(01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by...
2025-01-302h 01ManifoldJoscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany
(06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy
(10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall
(14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences
(15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions
(19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, u...
2025-01-021h 21ManifoldAdventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast
(01:19) - The education of a physicist
(10:53) - Computational genomics
(19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics
(26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation
(40:39) - University research administration
(45:05) - Reproducibility c...
2024-12-191h 19ManifoldPascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan
(14:17) - Neutrality in international relations
(20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality
(28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict
(37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality
(46:13) - The importance of dissent in op...
2024-12-051h 37ManifoldLetter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China
(02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality
(06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing
(15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture
(22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite
(27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China
(33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry
(35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements
(37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone
(41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph
(48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology
(51:16) - High-speed rail in...
2024-11-2159 minManifoldLetter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis30:32 Currency Valuation a...
2024-11-071h 02ManifoldSeeking Truth From Facts: Israel and Iran, Missile Defense, China Economic DevelopmentThis is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense
(13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis?
(21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine?
(25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline?
(30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame?
(34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant?
(41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision
(46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China?
(57:06) - Is liberal democracy r...
2024-10-241h 05ManifoldSamo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.Samo writes and...
2024-10-101h 37ManifoldDeus Ex Machina: A Man, Machines, and GodThis is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!Deus Ex Machina podcast:https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…Timestamps:(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background.
(11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Me...
2024-09-261h 30ManifoldSeeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration
(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise
(02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics
(28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy
(32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future
(45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...
2024-09-1255 minManifoldLetter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik11:56 Hyperscaling genAI23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?29:45 Quantum black holesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
2024-08-2935 minManifoldRobin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU0:00 Introduction00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction03:12...
2024-08-151h 20ManifoldChina Today: Myths and Realities — #65Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.00:00 Introduction02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges
2024-08-011h 21ManifoldIvy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18Chapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome
(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception
(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom
(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism
(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide
(54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously...
2024-07-181h 11ManifoldAI Global Odyssey: REAL Situational Awareness — #63Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.Chapters:(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley
(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley
(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI
(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications
(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness
(51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race
Links:Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call...
2024-07-0459 minManifoldPhilippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background
(00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey
(08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual
(46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy
(48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science
(56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives
(01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising
(01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Uk...
2024-06-202h 17ManifoldJohn Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lew...
2024-06-061h 14ManifoldMolson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3Steve and Molson discuss:1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China5:26 The...
2024-05-161h 25ManifoldJaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.Steve and Jaan discuss:00:00 Introduction00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety04:29 AI Capabilities and...
2024-05-0243 minManifoldGlenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China
(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy
(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital
(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures
(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies
(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures
(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China
(49:09) - China's...
2024-04-181h 29ManifoldCasey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at
2024-04-041h 02ManifoldRussell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/Steve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan13:25 Hong Kong and finance31:53 China property bubble48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...
2024-03-211h 13ManifoldStephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets31:47 Dating markets32:53 The Art of PR...
2024-03-0750 minManifoldRay McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.Steve and Ray discuss:0:00 Introduction01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination
2024-02-221h 07ManifoldLecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharingFurther discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.htmlCORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100...
2024-02-0853 minManifoldUtah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_ReyesNOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL400:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history14:21 Sean's personal journey and career21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG24:08 The movie Sound of Freed...
2024-01-251h 10ManifoldMilitary Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.Previous episodes with TP include:China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44Steve and TP discuss: (00:00) - Introduction
(02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD
(08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology
(13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception
(29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle?
(33:36) - Japan's role in a U...
2024-01-111h 24ManifoldLouis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #50Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.https://research.gavekal.com/Steve and Louis discuss:(00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer
(14:42) - Founding Gavekal
(23:50) - Understanding China economic growth
(32:57) - China real estate market
(42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth
(48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies
(01:07:09) - China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt
(01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?
Music used with...
2023-12-141h 27ManifoldCharles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — #49Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.Lynk - https://lynk.world/Steve and Charles discuss: 0:00 Introduction and guest background1:27 Miller's early passion for space3:54 Evolution of commercial space6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX8:01 The challenges of early stage startups11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites36:41 Competition with...
2023-11-301h 02ManifoldChina's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.0:00 Introduction2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market14:41 Buying a car in China27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving50:48 LIDAR technology...
2023-11-161h 23ManifoldTaylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #47Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical P...
2023-11-021h 30ManifoldBharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — #46Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciencesSteve and...
2023-10-191h 43ManifoldYasheng Huang: China's Examination System and its impact on Politics, Economy, Innovation — #45Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination48:33 Impact of the exam system57:04 China's innovation peak and decline
2023-10-051h 31ManifoldHuawei and the US-China Chip War — #44TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.Steve and TP discuss:0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics28:21 Impact on Qualcomm36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for Chinasemiconductor companies42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.47:14 5G and Huawei52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones...
2023-09-211h 17ManifoldMeritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #43Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharingCLA and College Learning outcomes:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.htmlHarvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduatehttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.htmlDefining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University:
2023-09-071h 01ManifoldAella: Sex Work, Sex Research, and Data Science — #42Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_GirlInterviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenelloAn earlier Aella interview with Reason:https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/Steve and Aella discuss:(00:00) - Introduction
(01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing
(12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting
(29:52) - Pimp culture
(38:01) - Seeking Arrangement
(43:50) - Cheating
(46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps
(51:49) - Incels and sex...
2023-08-241h 39ManifoldAI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — #41Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background...
2023-08-101h 07ManifoldPaul Huang, the real situation in Taiwan: politics, military, China — #40Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.Sample articles:Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/Steve and Paul discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese15:02 Taiwan taboos: p...
2023-07-271h 16ManifoldRichard Hanania & Rob Henderson: The Rise of Wokeness and the Influence of Civil Rights Law — #39Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!They discuss:0:00 Introduction1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Co...
2023-07-131h 34ManifoldRichard Sander (UCLA Law) on the Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling — #38Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.0:00 Introduction1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling11:27 Carve outs i...
2023-07-0147 minManifoldAI Cambrian Explosion: Conversation With Three AI Engineers — #37In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.0:00 Introduction1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside41:28 AI Doomers and AlignmentLinks to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Scr...
2023-06-081h 04ManifoldDavid Goldman: US-China Competition, AI, Electric Vehicles, and Manufacturing — #36David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.Steve and David discuss:0:00 Introduction2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer...
2023-05-251h 16ManifoldArtificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharingChapter markers:0:00 Introduction2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results21:15 Embedding space, word vectors31:53 Next word prediction as objective function34:08 Attention is all you need37:09 Transformer architecture44:54 The geometry of thought52:57 What can LLMs...
2023-05-111h 24ManifoldSimone Collins: IVF, Embryo Selection, Dating on the Spectrum, and Pronatalism — #34In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com).Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone.Steve and Simone discuss:0:00 Introduction1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening40:02 Dating; girl autists55:41 Finding a husband, systematized1:09:57 Pronatalism Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.—
2023-04-271h 30ManifoldKatherine Dee: Culture, Identity, and Isolation in the Digital Age — #33Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.Steve and Katherine discuss:0:00 Introduction1:15 Katherine’s early life and background21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter1:33:00 TikTok1:41:41 Adderall1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?References:Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: h...
2023-04-131h 56
ManifoldMarc Martinez: "Dream Big" and the Golden Age of Bodybuilding — #32Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.Steve and Marc discuss:(01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding
(05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California
(26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use
(33:52) - Frank Zane
(38:33) - Robby Robinson
(40:32) - Butler, Gaines, and Arnold
(42:46) - "Dream Big"
(48:18) - Pumping Iron
(59:44) - Hypersexuality in bodybuilding
(01:10:56) - What's next for Marc
References:Watch Dream Big on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Dream-Big-Ken-Sprague/dp/B0B8ST5LNL/Dream...
2023-03-161h 16
ManifoldGilles Saint-Paul: The Yellow Vests, French Politics, and Hypergamy — #31Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.0:00 Introduction1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education6:31 French and American higher elite education14:44 The Yellow Vests41:46 Mating and HypergamyReferences:On the Yellow Vest Insurrectionhttps://gillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrection/Genes, Legi...
2023-03-021h 10
ManifoldBing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.00:00 Introduction02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination20:52 China demographics & STEM34:29 China IVF40:28 Survey on embryo screening in ScienceReferences:Bing vs Bard and Hallucination https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119China demographics and STEMhttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297https://twitter.com/hsu_ste...
2023-02-1649 min
ManifoldChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT. 0:00 How do LLMs work?10:22 Impact of ChatGPT15:21 AI landscape24:13 Hallucination and Focus33:09 Applications39:29 Future LandscapeReferences:Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-future-of-thought-via-thought.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream i...
2023-02-0241 min
ManifoldDominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — #28Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode.Steve and Dominic discuss:0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro
2023-01-192h 07
ManifoldSahil Lavingia: Founding Gumroad, The Minimalist Entrepreneur, and our AI LLM future — #27Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups.Steve and Sahil discuss:0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins24:15 Backstory of Gumroad30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad37:09 Experiments with OpenAI LLM, ChatGPT, and the promise of AIReferences:Sahil's web pagehttps://sahillavingia.com/Ask My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLMhttps://askmybook.com/
2023-01-0559 min
ManifoldGeoffrey Miller: Evolutionary Psychology, Polyamorous Relationships, and Effective Altruism — #26Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution.For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29Steve and Geoffrey discuss:0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology14:44 How evolutionary psychology is perceived and where the field is going38:23 The value of higher education: sobering facts about retention49:00 Dating, pickup artists, and relationships1:11:27 Polyamory1:24:56 FTX, poly, and effective altruism1:34:31...
2022-12-151h 42
ManifoldAnna Krylov: The Politicization of Science in Academia — #25Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry.Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Phys...
2022-12-011h 00
ManifoldAbdel Abdellaoui: Genetics, Psychiatric Traits, and Educational Attainment — #24Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.Steve and Abdel discuss:00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification21:43 Correlations acro...
2022-11-171h 04
ManifoldRichard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNCRichard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments16...
2022-11-0359 min
ManifoldDiscovering the Multiverse: Quantum Mechanics and Hugh Everett III, with Peter Byrne — #22Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine.Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.Steve and Peter discuss:
2022-10-2058 min
ManifoldJeffrey Sachs: Lessons from the COVID Commission, Lab Leak Questions, and Nord Stream — #21Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.Steve and Jeffrey discuss:0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-1913:41 Potential for bioweapons research19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotageResources:...
2022-10-0654 min
ManifoldRob Henderson: A Journey from Foster Care to the US Military to Elite Academia — #20Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.Steve and Rob discuss:00:00 Early life and foster experience20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Ya...
2022-09-221h 51
ManifoldLyle Goldstein on U.S. Strategic Challenges: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Taiwan — #19Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the nature of China-Russia relations in the 21st century. He has a longstanding interest in great power politics, military competition, and security in the pacific region.Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement...
2022-09-081h 12
ManifoldHarvard Veritas: interview with a recent graduate (anonymous) — #18The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly.Steve and his guest discuss:0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities58:46 Competing wi...
2022-08-251h 37
ManifoldAmy Chua: Tiger Mothers and Culture Wars at Yale — #18Amy Chua is the John M. Duff Jr. Professor of Law at Yale Law School. She is the author of five books and is perhaps best known for her parenting memoir Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother. She has been named one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people, one of The Atlantic's Brave Thinkers, and one of Foreign Policy's Global Thinkers.Steve and Amy discuss:00:00 Amy Chua's heritage and background8:23 Growing up as an outsider12:49 Chua's first book: market dominant minorities20:59 The inspiration...
2022-08-1150 min
ManifoldRichard Lowery: The War for American Universities — #17Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus.Links:Richard Lowery at UT Austin:https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/National Review coverage:https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texas/Academic Freedom in Crisis:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.htmlMusic used with...
2022-07-281h 18ManifoldTim Palmer (Oxford): Status and Future of Climate Modeling — #16Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute.He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events.He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability.After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a...
2022-07-141h 10ManifoldKishore Mahbubani: A Nuanced View of Asia & China's Rise — #15Kishore Mahbubani is Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore. Kishore enjoyed two distinct careers: in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer and speaker on geopolitics and East-West relations. He was twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. Mr. Mahbubani joined academia in 2004, when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 20...
2022-06-3050 minManifoldGreg Clark: Genetics and Social Mobility — #14Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University.His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility.Steve and Greg discuss:0:00 Introduction2:31 Background in economics and genetics10:25 The role of genetics in...
2022-06-161h 43ManifoldJohn Mearsheimer: Great Powers, U.S. Hegemony, and the Rise of China — #13This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine.John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the...
2022-06-021h 00ManifoldTheodore A. Postol: Nuclear Weapons, Missile Technology, and U.S. Diplomacy — #12Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology.Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations.After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.
2022-05-191h 55ManifoldRaghuveer Parthasarathy: The Four Physical Principles — #11Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World.Steve and Raghu discuss: 1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in t...
2022-05-051h 20ManifoldCarl Zha: Xinjiang, Ukraine, and U.S.-China relations — #10Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia.Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha.Steve and Carl discuss:1. Carl’s background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad2. Xinjiang (35:20)3. Ukraine (1:03:51)4. China-Russia relationship (1:16:01)5. U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theo...
2022-04-212h 10ManifoldScott Aaronson: Quantum Computing, Unsolvable Problems, & Artificial Intelligence — #9Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally. Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/ Steve and Scott discuss:Scott's childhood and education, first exposure to mathematics and computers.How he became interested in computational complexity, pursuing it...
2022-04-071h 21ManifoldSebastian Mallaby: Venture capital as an engine of courage — #8Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.Biography:https://www.cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallabyhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_MallabyThe Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X
2022-03-241h 16ManifoldVlatko Vedral: Oxford Theoretical Physicist on Quantum Superposition of Living Creatures — #7Vlatko Vedral is Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford and Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore. He is known for his research on the theory of Entanglement and Quantum Information Theory.Steve and Vlatko discuss: History of quantum information theory, entanglement, and quantum computingRecent lab experiments that create superposition states of macroscopic objects, including a living creature (tardigrade)Whether quantum mechanics implies the existence of many worlds: are you in a superposition state right now?Present status and future of quantum computingResourcesW...
2022-03-101h 14ManifoldRichard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, & Academic Freedom — #6Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.Topics discussed: 1. Early life: educational background and experience with race andpolitics in America. 2. Mismatch Theory: basic observation and empirical evidence; Lawschools and Colleges; Duke and UC data; data access issues. 3. CA Prop 209 and Prop 16. ...
2022-03-031h 26ManifoldShai Carmi: Polygenic risk scores & embryo screening — #5Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem).Carmi Lab: https://scarmilab.org/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi Topics and links:Shai's educational background. From statistical physics and network theory to genomics.Shai's paper on embryo selection: Schizophrenia risk. Modeling synthetic sibling genomes. Variance among sibs vs general population. RRR vs ARR, family history and elevated polygenic risk. (Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.05.370478v3)Response to the ESHG opinion piece on embryo selection. https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi/status/1487694576458481664Pleiotropy, Health Index scores.Genetic genealogy and DNA forensics. Solving c...
2022-02-241h 15ManifoldJon Y (Asianometry) on Semiconductor Tech and U.S.-China Competition — #4Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack.Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition. Topics discussed:Jon's background and his move to Taipei.Key components of the semiconductor ecosystem: fabs, lithography, chip design.US-China tech warTSMC, ASML, HuaweiTaiwan politics: Green and Blue parties, independencePRC invasion / blockade of Taiwan?Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu i...
2022-02-171h 34ManifoldRichard Hanania: Wokeness, Public Choice Theory, & Geostrategy — #3Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.He...
2022-02-101h 20ManifoldSteve Hsu Q&A: Complex trait prediction in Genomics, and Genomic Prediction / Embryo SelectionSteve answers questions about recent progress in AI/ML prediction of complex traits from DNA and applications in embryo selection.Highlights:Overview of recent advances in trait predictionWould cost savings from breast cancer early detection pay for genotyping of all women?How does IVF work? Economics of embryo selectionWhole embryo genotyping increases IVF success rates (pregnancy per transfer) significantlyFuture predictionsSome relevant scientific papers:Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy: New Methods and Higher Pregnancy Rates - https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html2021 review article on complex trait prediction - https://arxiv...
2022-02-031h 09ManifoldJames Lee on Polygenic Prediction and Embryo Selection — #1James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex.ResourcesImagine a Future Without Sex: Reproductive technology may lead us to realize too late that being human is better than playing GodJames Lee academic web pageSocial Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC)Nature Genetics...
2022-01-251h 04ManifoldLeif Wenar on the Resource Curse and Impact Philosophy – #49Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar’s thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve’s). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip...
2020-06-041h 29ManifoldKaja Perina on the Dark Triad: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy – #36Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.Topics2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people?17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability?35:16 – Corey lament...
2020-03-051h 10ManifoldJoe Cesario on Political Bias and Problematic Research Methods in Social Psychology – #13Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward...
2019-06-2758 min