Shows
Economy WatchUS fades both at home and abroadKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the fading of confidence in the US is spreading, but trailing the international reputation demise.First up today, the widely-watched Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for the US fell in January from an upwardly revised result for December, suggesting American economic growth decreased to below trend. The personal consumption and housing ca...2025-02-2403 minEconomy WatchWhat will the RBA do?Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today will be dominated by the RBA rate review, especially as US financial markets are on holiday (Presidents Day).Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in January from December and came in +3.7% higher than year ago levels. Montreal and Vancouver demand drove the increases.Across the Pacific, the Japanese economy co...2025-02-1704 minEconomy WatchTrump 2 starts with bluster and renegingKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is today moving from a prosperous and strong four years into an unknown future; the age where billionaires get all the gains. Markets are showing caution, especially the bond market which is likely to be the most reliable predictor of what is to come. And the USD fell. It is all ve...2025-01-2103 minEconomy WatchChina stimulus fizzesKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that there was little economic data released overnight, so this report will be quite thin - and short.First up today we should note that China's October vehicle sales surged by +7% from a year ago to just over 3 million units in in the month. This contrasted with the -1.7% drop on that ba...2024-11-1103 minEconomy WatchMarkets bet the Fed has won its battle against inflationKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that US dollar has fallen to a seven-month low as American disinflation extends in their economy and that is raising expectations of rate cuts in each of the Fed's remaining three reviews this year.US equity markets are rising on the same expectation, with the S&P500 moving back to again challenge it...2024-08-1903 minEconomy WatchHigh rates hurting commercial property fundsKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of mostly second-tier indicators today.And that is because it is a public holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and financial markets are closed there.Tt is probably good that business is closed there for one major commercial real estate investor. Starwood Real Estate Income Trust has had to li...2024-05-2703 minEconomy WatchGlobal manufacturing indicators turn positiveKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that global manufacturing indicators have turned quite positive.First in China, their official March PMIs have set a bullish tone to start the week. Their official factory PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier and export orders also recovered. The official services PMI rose to its highest since June. These were fo...2024-04-0106 minEconomy WatchMarkets pretend geopolitical risks won't affect themKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news investors are ignoring the geopolitical risks.The main talking point today is how little financial and commodity markets have reacted to the sudden Gaza-Israel conflict threats. Yes, bond markets are having a 'flight to safety' with yields falling somewhat, but is it limited. Yes, oil prices have risen, but they are ar...2023-10-0903 minEconomy WatchChina just crawling along nowKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news, a pair of surveys confirm the giant Chinese economy is just crawling along, neither expanding nor contracting.First up today however, we need to note that it is a holiday in much of Australia, their Labour Day.And late on Friday, they released a review of June quarter foreign in...2023-10-0107 minEconomy WatchEmployment gains outpace inflation's costsKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news, so far the sky is not falling despite the higher benchmark interest ratesFirst in the US, the actual number of new initial claims for jobless benefits fell to just under 175,000 last week, emphasising the continuing strength of the American labour market. True, the seasonally-adjusted version rose marginally, but even so, th...2023-09-2805 minEconomy WatchBenchmark yields push even higherKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it is the same story continuing, benchmark yields are still pushing higher.But first, after the prior week's rather unexpected surge, American mortgage applications fell last week, reverting to the negative trend we have seen since May 2023. The usual culprit was responsible; mortgage interest rates rose again, this time to 7.41% plus po...2023-09-2705 minEconomy WatchMarkets on edgeKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the fall in bond prices (rise in bond yields) is biting even harder today. Equity market valuations are taking a hit from the pressure on capitalisation as rates rise.And a looming US government shutdown isn't helping sentiment either. JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon is now worried the Fed could take it...2023-09-2604 minEconomy WatchThe cost of money rises ever higherKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news asset values are under threat as the cost of money rises.All the focus in financial markets is on bond yields. They rose overnight as investors concluded that the world's major central banks would need to keep the interest rates higher for longer to keep inflation in check. The yield on th...2023-09-2504 minEconomy WatchCan the world withstand higher interest rates?Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news higher benchmark interest rates are clouding the global economy.But after last week's big central bank meetings, this week it will be more about macroeconomic data. In the US, the spotlight will be on the PCE Price Index, as well as personal income and spending data. And durable goods orders, the fi...2023-09-2405 minEconomy WatchBenchmark interest rates riseKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it is all about the fast-rising benchmark interest rates and steeper curves today. And higher rates may be here to stay. We should remember that in the decade prior to the GFC, which ushered in 'lower for longer', the benchmark UST 10yr rate average 4.52%. We could well be a 'higher for longer' period no...2023-09-2105 minEconomy WatchFed sets up 2024 for rates holding highKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes have been on Washington DC and the US Fed.As expected, the American central bank's September policy review was a "hawkish hold". It kept its policy rate at 5.25% following a +25 bps hike in July but signaled there could be one more hike this year. They pointed out that their la...2023-09-2006 minEconomy WatchMarkets nervous ahead of Fed decisionsKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both equity and bond markets are displaying some nerves ahead of tomorrow's US Fed rate and policy decisions.But first, there was another dairy auction overnight and a good gain was achieved even if not as strong as some market forecasts expected. Overall prices were up +4.6% in US dollar terms on to...2023-09-1905 minEconomy WatchEyes on Fed as risks won't fadeKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are entering the shadow period before the next US Fed review on Thursday (NZT) and activity is restrained. The Bank of Japan is also doing its regular review and expectations of changes driven by its new governor are uncertain now.But we can first report that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Am...2023-09-1804 minEconomy WatchChina's struggles deepenKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is showing signs of struggle, and yet the Wall Street-anticipated signs the US would slow in 2023 are yet to emerge.But first, this coming week will be dominated by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday (NZT). Also on Thursday, Fonterra will report its profit result and it is e...2023-09-1707 minEconomy WatchChina & EU make dovish moves, US data positiveKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central banks in both China in the EU have been active overnight, both dovishly.But first up, initial American US jobless claims last week came in little-changed at +220,000 so there are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, also very little-changed. Their long-awaited labour market stress still hasn't arrived. It surely will, bu...2023-09-1406 min
Of InterestChina & EU make dovish moves, US data positiveKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central banks in both China in the EU have been active overnight, both dovishly.But first up, initial American US jobless claims last week came in little-changed at +220,000 so there are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, also very little-changed. Their long-awaited labour market stress still hasn't arrived. It surely will, bu...2023-09-1406 minEconomy WatchUS inflation stays stubbornly highKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes are in the latest inflation updates.But first, mortgage applications in the US fell -0.8% last week, following a -2.9% drop in the previous week and hitting a new 27 year low, since December 1996. This was even after adjusting for their Labor Day holiday weekend. Getting the blame are higher mo...2023-09-1305 minEconomy WatchAustralian business and consumer sentiment remains stuntedKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australian business and consumer sentiment remains stunted.But first, American retail sales last week as monitored for bricks & mortar stores on a same store basis, rose +4.6% from the same week a year ago, the best gain of the year and indicating demand is back and gains are now more than can be...2023-09-1204 minEconomy WatchJapan and China push back against rising greenbackKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both China and Japan are making background moves to raise the value of their currencies after long weak periods.But first, American inflation expectations for the year ahead were little-changed at 3.6% in August from 3.5% in July, but it was the first increase in five months. Expectations for rents rose to 3.1%, the hig...2023-09-1104 minEconomy WatchDeflation pressure in China easesKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a bit of price stabilisation is returning to the Chinese economy.Chinese consumer price inflation came in little-changed for August. It was up +0.3% from July, and up only +0.1% from a year ago. Milk and lamb prices fell in the month, beef prices were unchanged from July. Year-on-year milk prices are essentially un...2023-09-1005 minEconomy WatchThe US and China continue to divergeKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more of the same - continuing American economic strength, worries about China's prospects.The number of American filing for new jobless claims fell to +190,000 last week which is their lowest since February. A rise to +234,000 was expected so this is a much better-than-anticipated result. There are now 1.75 mln people on th...2023-09-0705 minEconomy WatchResilient US economy defies doomsters againKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's largest economy keeps on throwing up unexpected positive surprises.First up today, there was a very strong August services ISM PMI out for the giant American economy. It is a widely-watched and influential metric and it rose unexpectedly with its strongest growth in six months. Faster increases were seen in...2023-09-0606 minEconomy WatchDairy prices stop fallingKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the return of Wall Street from their long weekend holiday has been a quiet one, although Saudi Arabia greeted them back with a move that raised oil prices.But first up, the overnight dairy auction delivered a +2.7% rise in overall prices, headlined by the +5.3% rise in the WMP price. (From the la...2023-09-0505 minEconomy WatchEyes on Chinese housing marketsKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it will be worth keeping an eye on Chinese housing sales in September.But first we should note that the rest of the world has basically had its feet up overnight, and there is little new data, or events to report.China has nothing to say (because it won't sa...2023-09-0404 minEconomy WatchResilient US economy defies predictionsKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a slight easing of labour market pressure in the US, but the long predicted recession still seems far away.But first in the week ahead, it will get started slowly with the US currently on its long end-of-summer Labor Day weekend. We won't see them back in international financial markets un...2023-09-0306 minEconomy WatchUS resilient, China weak, India up but has problemsKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American inflation and consumer spending remain at levels above where the US Fed needs them to be.But first, actual American jobless claims came in at a low 192,000 last week, lower than expected and there are now under 1.8 mln people on these benefits. This is a good way to head into th...2023-08-3106 minEconomy WatchPower stress risks rise in AustraliaKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are worries the Aussie energy transition is falling short and they could face tough choices as early as this summer.But first, US mortgage applications rose +2.3% last week from the prior week and mortgage interest rates held steady at a very high 7.31% plus points. It was their first rise in si...2023-08-3006 minEconomy WatchChina battles economic fearsKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news our credit rating has been held with a stable outlook, and WMP prices didn't fall further, as expected.But first in the US, job openings edged down in July and the number of people quitting their jobs fell. They declined by -338,000 from the previous month to 8.827 million in July, the lo...2023-08-2905 minEconomy WatchWeaknesses show up in most major economiesKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the pressure remains on the Chinese economy and Beijing seems committed to tough it out without its usual debt-inducing stimulus strategies.But mainland China equities as well as those in Hong Kong jumped more than +1% yesterday after Beijing announced new measures to boost its capital markets, including halving the stamp duty on...2023-08-2804 minEconomy Watch2023's reputation to be set in the next 15 weeksKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the next 15 weeks will set the tone for 2023. So far in 2023 the benchmark equity market is up +15% (S&P500), benchmark bond yields are up +70 bps (UST10yr +20%), and the USD is unchanged.First we are now in the last week before the America's Labor Day holiday, signaling the end of the "se...2023-08-2706 minEconomy WatchHow much to change a job?Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that all the 'rich men north of Richmond' have now decamped to Jackson Hole WO, and are awaiting Fed boss Powell's speech.So today we are left with the granular details of the American economy - which is actually doing remarkably well for the non-rich men south of Richmond (even if th...2023-08-2404 minEconomy WatchSuccessful landings, soft landings, and crash landingsKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the northern summer data is full of variety today, some positive, others not so much.The early look at the American PMIs shows a small slip in August with their services sector expanding slower, and the contraction in their factory sector easing slightly. Both measures seem to be heading to a st...2023-08-2304 minEconomy WatchDrought to affect ship freight ratesKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news global financial markets await signals from Jackson Hole at the weekend.In the meantime in the US, there was an unusual surge in retail sales at bricks & mortar stores last week, reporting their strongest week-on-week gain in four months (+2.9% from a year ago). And it is the first time that rise ha...2023-08-2205 minEconomy WatchThe cost of money rises on Wall Street, falls in ShanghaiKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the cost of money is ending its extended 'cheap' period. There is a whole generation unused it its 'normal' level where the benchmark is about 5% with lending costs above that.We start today noting that American bond yields are moving ever higher. The yield on the UST 10yr has hit its hi...2023-08-2104 minEconomy WatchWorries about China's economy growKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news questions are deepening about the Chinese economy, and how it will extract itself from the on-going funk - or whether it can.But first, we are now in the heart of the northern hemisphere annual vacation season. Anything happening now is reactive to the general inactivity among investors, company managers, and re...2023-08-2005 minEconomy WatchGlobal bond yields riseKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news UST yields are now near a 16-year high on fears American interest rates will stay higher for longer. And EU bonds yields are moving up too. Higher interest rates will weigh on asset valuations, especially real estate and commercial real estate in particular.But first, new US jobless claims came in at...2023-08-1705 minEconomy WatchStresses bubble near surface in ChinaKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tensions are spilling out in China over their struggling property development and shadow banking industries.But first, US mortgage applications slipped yet again last week, the fourth week in a row it has done that. And that was undoubtedly because mortgage interest rates rose yet again with their benchmark 30 year rate no...2023-08-1605 minEconomy WatchTerrible dairy auctionKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the economic clouds are darkening for New Zealand.First up today, the overnight dairy auction was a terrible one. Prices fell -7.4% in USD terms and -4.8% in NZD terms, principally on an almost -11% dive in the dominant WMP price (-8.5% in NZD terms). Remember these falls are from the pr...2023-08-1506 minEconomy WatchFailing China hurting commodity producers badlyKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's woes are affecting us, devaluing our currency to a nine month low. And the AUD is suffering similarly.But first today, we can report that American inflation expectations continue to retreat, falling to their lowest since April 2021 and are now at 3.5% in July for the year ahead (and that is do...2023-08-1404 minEconomy Watch"Ticking time bomb"?Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news this week, all eyes will be on the Wednesday RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, and especially the regulator's forecasts (even if no change in the OCR is anticipated).Elsewhere, potential market moving data might come from the US Fed's release of the minutes of is July meeting, or US retail sales, or US...2023-08-1306 minEconomy WatchThe US seems to have inflation under controlKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news market chatter is building for a Fed rate pause.First up today, the American consumer inflation rate came in at 3.2% in July, almost exactly as expected (3.3%). Base effects and rising rents were behind the tick up, and it marks a halt in the 12 consecutive months of declines. A year ago they we...2023-08-1004 minEconomy WatchEconomic problems build and weigh on many countriesKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it may be the summer holidays in the northern hemisphere, but that isn't making the economic news quiet. While they are holidaying the commercial world seems to be bleeding a bit.Mortgage interest rates jumped in the US last week, taking the 30 year benchmark to 7.09% with a +16 bps rise in a we...2023-08-0906 minEconomy WatchChina's exports plunge, threatening recoveryKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that China's recovery has stalled, and that is affected many trading partners linked closely to it.But first, Moody's has cut the credit ratings of ten mid-sized American banks and said it may yet downgrade some of the US's largest lenders. It said it is concerned about impending lower earnings, and th...2023-08-0805 minEconomy WatchUpbeat investors shrug off risksKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news investors are upbeat, positioning that the economic threats will mostly be diffused.First up today, a look at the US Q2 corporate earnings being reported. So far Q2 earnings for the S&P 500, are down sharply from the same period a year ago. But both the number of companies reporting positive ea...2023-08-0705 minEconomy WatchChina tones down its pressure on AustraliaKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news necessity is moderating China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy - even though the original 'wolf warrior' is back as the Chinese foreign minister.Late last week China announced that they will drop its tariffs on Australian barley imports that have been in place for three years. In response, Australia said it will suspend it...2023-08-0607 minEconomy WatchBenchmark wholesale interest rates riseKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the down-graded Fitch rating is costing the US higher wholesales interest rates. But to be fair, the benchmark UST 10 year yield is only back to what it was in late October, but that was a post GFC high.And perhaps we should note a comment by Warren Buffet overnight: "There are so...2023-08-0306 minEconomy WatchStrong job creation but Fitch spoils the partyKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Fitch downgrade has cast a pall over financial markets today, trumping any data. Equity markets are grumpy, bond yields are rising and the US dollar is rising.But first in the US, we get their July labour market details on Saturday NZT and today the precursor ADP Employment Report is ou...2023-08-0204 minEconomy WatchRBA wrongfoots economistsKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Australians look like they have finished their rate-hiking cycle.But first up today there was another dairy auction overnight and it wasn't a good one. Overall prices fell -4.3% in USD terms, although they were down a much lesser -2.1% in NZD terms. It was the dominant WMP price that to...2023-08-0105 minEconomy WatchNorthern summer sagKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a quiet end to July as the northern hemisphere holidays in the heat, has brought out some tame second tier data. And China chipped in with an underwhelming announcement of how they will deal with their slowdown.First, although it improved in July from June, the Chicago PMI that measures activity in...2023-07-3104 minEconomy WatchChina struggles to find its growth mojoKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today the fizzling Chinese economy is looking for a big policy boost from Beijing.In Beijing, they said that at 4pm today (NZT) a senior official will announce new measures "to restore and expand consumption" in the government’s latest effort to engineer a revival in their economy. There have been a number of measures announced over...2023-07-3005 minEconomy WatchBetter economic data, some quite impressiveKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with a lot of "good news" on the economic front in the major economies.First, new orders for US durable goods jumped +4.7% in June from May, the most since July 2020, following an upwardly revised +2% rise in May. They are +9*.3% higher than year-ago levels, and handily exceeding inflation. The June result easily beating market ex...2023-07-2706 minEconomy WatchMore rate hikes to come from the Fed?Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is hard to beat and the US Fed is unsure it has done enough yet.First up today, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by +25 bps to 5.25%-5.5%, in line with market expectations. It was a unanimous decision. That takes them to their highest levels since January 2001. At...2023-07-2604 minEconomy WatchGlobal economy shows its resilienceKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more evidence and expectations that the "impending recession" might be avoided.First up today, the IMF has raised its global growth forecast. They say the world's economy is expected to expand by +3% in 2023, slightly higher than the 2.8% seen in their April forecast. However, at that level growth still remains weak by...2023-07-2505 minEconomy WatchA new type of economic slowdown?Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic slowdown is coming but it might not be like every other slowdown.There is more evidence that the giant American economy isn't expanding as fast as previously. First, the National Activity Index released by the Chicago Fed delivered a weakish result for June when it saw "little economic gr...2023-07-2404 minEconomy WatchBeijing bets on cars to trigger growthKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is starting to roll out more industry support to bolster its flagging economy.But first, this coming week will be a busy one. And it will be dominated by the US Fed rate decision on Thursday (NZT). Analysts expect a +25 bps rise to 5.50%.The Americans will also release th...2023-07-2306 minEconomy WatchAustralia may be facing more rate hikesKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia may be facing more rate hikes.But first, the tight American labour market is still showing its resilience. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell slightly last week to 258,000 when a seasonal rise was anticipated. However the number of people on these benefits rose to 1.89 mln as they ar...2023-07-2005 minEconomy WatchChina struggles to attract new foreign investmentKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is struggling to attract new foreign direct investment.But first, American new housing starts were expected to be a bit soft in June, but they fell more than expected, down -8.0% from May and down -15.3% below the June 2022 level. It was weak all round with single-family housing starts, which ac...2023-07-1904 minEconomy WatchCentral banks will like today's tame dataKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central banks may be increasingly happy with the tame data released today.But first, today's dairy auction was a lame affair. Analysts had expected prices to rise +1.9% but in the event they fell -1.0%. Buyer demand is soft even as indications grow that the global milk supply may start falling. Nine of...2023-07-1804 minEconomy WatchAPRA targets unlisted asset valuesKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news those unlisted Aussie funds are going to get a hurry-up on proper valuations from their prudential regulator via their superannuation system.But first, in the US, the New York State manufacturing survey dipped in July from June but the shift was in fact minor and much less than was expected. Activity he...2023-07-1704 minEconomy WatchCommercial property faces yield reckoningKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news investors are getting nervous about their exposure to office buildings in the commercial real estate sector.But first, after retreating over the past year, average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were unchanged year-on-year in June. There were rises, including in Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin. But there were falls in...2023-07-1606 minEconomy WatchUS labour market momentum easesKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news more rises to our OCR may be off the table now but that doesn't mean our interest rates will stop going up.This coming week, the big international focus will be on the US CPI change for June. We get that on Thursday, NZ time and an increase of 3.1% is expected, do...2023-07-0906 minEconomy WatchEquities fall, bond yields rise on strong US labour dataKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that hotter-than-expected American jobs data raises the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer.But first, US jobless claims rose sharply and by +251,000 last week to leave 1.74 mln people on these benefits, the highest it has been since February.However American job cuts levels shrank sharply as tech layoffs eas...2023-07-0605 minEconomy WatchLong bond yields spike higherKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long bond yields are rising sharply again.But first, US factory orders rose in May by the same rate as in April, but that disappointed analysts who were expecting a better improvement. But at least it was a rise, countering the PMI signals. Orders for aircraft and electronic goods underpinned this re...2023-07-0605 minEconomy WatchThe earth is hot, the global economy not so muchKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the earth hit a heat record yesterday.But first, it’s a public holiday in the US, so financial markets will notice much lower volumes.Second, there was another dairy auction this morning and lower price levels are setting in again. Prices fell a sharpish -3.3%, much more than the...2023-07-0404 minEconomy WatchInvesting options top outKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are weak today as global factory activity slows. And some banks have run out of places to invest their excess cash holdings.But first in the US there were two factory PMIs out for June today and this sector is back at its lowest level since May 2020. The widely-watched IS...2023-07-0306 minEconomy WatchThe old benchmarks are less relevantKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news climate changes are making the reading of recent economic signals harder because the whole context is changing.In the week ahead, the non-farm payrolls report and FOMC Minutes will be taking the headlines in the United States. This will be followed by the release of ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, factory or...2023-07-0208 minEconomy WatchUS economy records continuing vigourKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bad-news bears can't catch a break at present.Overnight US data was quite good again, and is seen underpinning more US Fed rate hikes with the next one on July 27 NZT and just before their summer holidays.US jobless claims came in lower than expected with a decrease of -1...2023-06-2906 minEconomy WatchWaiting & watchingKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is waiting to see what direction inflation will take from here and how fast it will move.But first, American mortgage applications rose again as another indication the US housing market is coming back to life. The rise from the prior week was minor, and this was despite virtually no c...2023-06-2904 minOf InterestWaiting & watchingKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is waiting to see what direction inflation will take from here and how fast it will move.But first, American mortgage applications rose again as another indication the US housing market is coming back to life. The rise from the prior week was minor, and this was despite virtually no c...2023-06-2804 minEconomy WatchSurprisingly strong US data undermines bearsKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a raft of strong first-tier US data. Their expansion cycle isn't done yet.New orders for American factory durable goods jumped +1.7% month-on-month in May, following an upwardly revised +1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a -1% decline. This is the third straight month of rising durable goods or...2023-06-2705 minEconomy WatchChina clamps down on recession talkKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is struggling to regain its economic momentum.And perhaps the US is as well. Although not as weak as the May result, the June factory survey by the Dallas Fed in America's oil patch remains weak. Shrinking new orders are the key feature. Loan demand is weak. Factory sal...2023-06-2604 minEconomy WatchEconomic stresses in China buildingKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news events in Russia are something of a gawkish sideline for us. It is China we should be watching.But first this week, in the US the spotlight will be on the Fed's big bank stress test results out Thursday, NZT. There will also be data released on May personal income and sp...2023-06-2507 minEconomy WatchPowell turns bond markets sceptics into believersKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are coming around to believing the US Fed signals, reversing their view that their call for high rates was 'just talk'.But first, US jobless claims stayed up at 250,000 last week at about the level expected. There are 1.67 mln people still on these benefits unchanged as well and also st...2023-06-2205 minEconomy WatchPowell says rate hike pause temporaryKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets seem to have decided China isn't doing anywhere near enough to reverse their economic challenges.But first, Fed boss Powell has been presenting the central bank's Semi Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress today and in testimony he said "Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to ra...2023-06-2104 minEconomy WatchSentiment sags globallyKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news global demand worries kneecapped many commodity prices overnight. The NZD suffered from the trend.The overnight dairy auction came in better than expected, but expectations were pretty negative. Overall prices were unchanged in USD terms when a -2.4% drop was anticipated. But in NZD terms it did record a -1.4% retreat. An...2023-06-2004 minEconomy WatchUS & China move to ratchet down tensionsKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some truly huge industrial orders being announced in Paris.But first we should note that the US is on a Federal holiday today and most financial markets are closed there.However there was some interesting data out overnight. Their home builder confidence index rose to its highest reading si...2023-06-1905 minEconomy WatchThe global expansion momentum wanesKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the realities of the post-pandemic bounce are showing it isn't being sustained on a global basis.This week won't be as busy on the economic data front as last week. It will be mainly Fed-watching in the US, plus PMIs and some key housing sector data there.China will re...2023-06-1805 minEconomy WatchWall Street roars after Fed, bond market more cautiousKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news hard data on the coming economic retreat is only marginally easier to find. Equities and commodities are up today.But US jobless claims rose by +249,000 last week, about the expected seasonal rise. There are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, the first actual rise since the end of February.Me...2023-06-1506 minEconomy WatchPause now, but more to comeKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are choppy after the Fed decision.As widely expected, the US Fed did hold its policy rates unchanged at today's meeting. But it added the phrase "in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate ..." signaling the more hikes are probable. They reinforced the importance of getting to...2023-06-1405 minEconomy WatchInflation in retreatKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation seems to be in retreat in all major economies.The closely-watched American CPI inflation result for May got the benefit of falling petrol prices. The headline level came in +4.0% ahead of year-ago levels, which was marginally better than the expected 4.1% and much lower than the +4.7% level in April. From April it...2023-06-1305 minEconomy WatchSofter economic activity brings lower inflationKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are on tenterhooks for the Thursday US Fed rate decision.In the meantime, US consumer inflation expectations over the next year eased in May, down to 4.1% and the lowest since March 2021 more than two years ago. Expectations for inflation for longer term periods however rose slightly. The rises were mi...2023-06-1204 minEconomy WatchUpbeat economic signals harder to findKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news upbeat economic signals are harder to find.But first, let's take a look at what economic signals we can expect in the next few days.It will be a busy week in the US, with the Fed interest rate decision on Thursday (NZT) and no change is expected by fi...2023-06-1106 minEconomy WatchEntering a stagnation phaseKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic impulse seems to be weakening further.US jobless claims rose last week to +219,000. When seasonal factors are added, this rise was significant. Seasonally, there should have been a decrease. Perhaps we are now getting the American labour market reaction to the slowing economy other data has been pointing to...2023-06-0804 minEconomy WatchNot holding backKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central banks seem to have called time on their brief interest rate pause signals.Just like the RBA on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada did the unexpected and hiked their policy interest rate by +25 bps to 4.75%, saying their monetary policy was not sufficiently tight enough yet "to bring supply and demand bac...2023-06-0706 minEconomy WatchWeakness everywhere you lookKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the 'surprise' rise in the official Australian interest rate benchmark comes as the Chinese yuan weakens sharply past 4.1 to the USD. A weaker Chinese economy and higher regional interest rates will cause inevitable ripples in New Zealand.But first today, there was another dairy auction this morning and another weakish one. Fo...2023-06-0605 minEconomy WatchGlobal service sector buoyed by jobs growthKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global service sector is expanding faster and keeping the long-awaited economic retreat at bay.First in the US, there were two PMIs out for their services sector. The widely-watched ISM one retreated from a modest expansion to a minor expansion in May. This wasn't expected because a faster expansion was an...2023-06-0505 minEconomy WatchCommodities rise as US debt issues fadeKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets want to move on from the US debt-ceiling debate but there are details to deal with.In Washington DC, the House of Representative has approved the Biden-McCarthy debt deal compromise. It is unlikely to fail in a Senate vote soon. The Biden Budget is largely intact in the end. All ey...2023-06-0105 minEconomy WatchCommodity currencies under pressureKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that mixed US data that doesn't show their labour market retreating, along with weak Chinese data, has the greenback rising but bond yields falling. Commodities are out of favour.US mortgage applications fell last week to a three month low (and approaching only half the level of a year ago), held ba...2023-05-3105 minEconomy WatchPandemic consequences bedevil ChinaKia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are in the shadow period until the US House votes on the debt deal. The chatter accentuates the risks of failure, so markets are holding their breath. But they also assume it will get passed.Meanwhile, the data being released is all quite bland, and will be until the May no...2023-05-3005 minEconomy WatchMaking sense of current global financial conditionsKia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we may be having a bear market rally in financial markets, always a very risky time even if the data doesn't shout risk warnings. (In the past, such events have ended with a panic selling period.) But of course every new event isn't the same as prior ones and this time we have st...2023-05-2905 minEconomy WatchDebt deal delays to bring higher interest ratesKia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Americans seem to have a deal on their Debt limit - at least until the extreme party members are overcome in a vote. They have enough funding authorised to last until June 5.In the week ahead, we will get the US non-farm payrolls report on Saturday, and before that the JO...2023-05-2808 minEconomy WatchRunning out of steamKia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that without both the US and China in a healthy economic state, it is hard for the world to prosper. Commodity prices measure that pullback.As the US heads into its long Memorial Day holiday weekend, negotiators are still unable to sort out their made-up debt limit problem. Credit rating agencies ar...2023-05-2505 minEconomy WatchInvestors worry the US is about to score an own goalKia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news global investment sentiment is weakening as the Americans look ready to score an own goal.The US debt negotiations are getting sillier. But at least they are still talking. While the White House is offering a spending pause, congressional Republicans are hardening their demand for deep cuts - but just not in...2023-05-2405 min