Shows
politicalODChanging times...While Labour promised change during the election it seems to have reverted to an old Labour ‘tax and spend” approach that is no recipe for the other thing promised ‘growth”. Hard to see in the recent budget how growth is going to be delivered if the overwhelming sense is that spend will be mostly in the stubbornly unproductive public sector.
In the USA fair to say change is coming at the speed of a Musk rocket to Mars. There is no script. Nothing to suggest that politics in the USA will be changed in unimaginable ways. With Republic...2024-11-0847 minpoliticalODLeadership goes AWOLIn Northern Ireland it is forwards into the past with Mike Nesbitt; apparently set to be the next leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, again. In Westminster Starmer has made a stuttering start to his premiership, while Sunak and Farage seem to have gone AWOL as opposition.
Seems nowhere is greatly blessed with coherent leadership, which lends itself to the disaffection with politicians; not something that will be quickly reversed on present trajectories.
It has been a long wet and miserable summer, but in the words of Matt the cartoonist: "Keir Starmer was on the...2024-08-2831 minpoliticalODno alarms & no surprisesThis election seems to be one where no-one wants to make an error and most parties make the case for ‘steady as it goes”.
Policy has been overwhelmed by trivia and side-shows. The considerable challenges ahead barely mentioned. All this in a context where in elections in India, in Turkey, in Europe, old parties and Governments that have believed themselves to be ‘popular’ have suffered at the hands of a volatile and uneasy electorate.
The candidates that seek to inspire, all too often don’t. In the UK, Labour will win an election without any great surg...2024-06-2829 minpoliticalODThe shotgun election.A private financial briefing summed up Wednesday's announcement of an election on 4th July as Rishi Sunak looking at the whisky and revolver, and reaching for the whisky. Unlikely the outcome of the upcoming election for the Conservative Party will be a clean shot, it will be much more messy.
This episode look broadly at the electoral landscape, and that both the Conservatives and Labour have one eye on Reform (Nigel Farage or not). In Scotland and in Wales the national runes seem similar. The Conservatives, the SNP and Welsh Labour have all been in power for a...2024-05-2445 minpoliticalODGone, gone, going?At the start of the year the most vulnerable political leader in the British Isles might have been Rishi Sunak. Today, Leo Varadkar is gone and best forgotten, Jeffery Donaldson is gone (no comment), and there is Rishi in his Adidas Sambas still sitting around in the big chair.
Change happens and events shape change. Reform may not be ready to take seats, but it certainly able to make its mark on the political landscape, perhaps not in 2024. For the DUP it means hanging on to incumbency as the best offer to the electorate, while for Rishi t...2024-04-1135 minpoliticalODLet's be honest.There is a lack of substance, and basic honesty in politics in the UK. Perhaps this comes from the search for a tactical edge with elections looming. Perhaps because few have an underlying compass by which to articulate simply, directly and honestly the context in which action needs to happen to secure national renewal. Economic for sure, but more and more a sense of needing democratic renewal.
Neither Sunak or Starmer impress, and unable to project leadership both seem slaves to events over which they have little control and on which their words have little impact.
...2024-02-2934 minpoliticalODElectoral tsunami?This is the year of elections around the world. While America and Europe may see populism gain, in the UK it seems there will be little change but the party label. It isn’t certain how any of this pans out. There will be little time for the outworking of one election to be adsorbed before the next.
2024 will be an a fascinating year, offering a number of late night viewings for the election obsessed.
Meanwhile the Northern Ireland Protocol remains and is due for full rigorous implementation by 2025.
And, the Northern Ireland pub...2024-01-1830 minpoliticalODLosing is the new WinningThe local Government elections in May and the more recent Westminster by-elections in England leave considerable challenges for political leaders in Northern Ireland and nationally, with wins and losses not being entirely clear cut. Everyone making the best of thread-bare endorsement.
Meanwhile, into the public arena the political bogeyman that is Nigel Farage cuts through Orwellian double speak, gets straight to the point, and defenestrates institutional hubris like no other. While denying he has any future electoral ambitions, Farage remains the known unknown of British politics.
The most positive thing that could be said of th...2023-07-2729 minpoliticalODThe House of Sturgeon falls.As the Coronation marks the continuity of the House of Windsor and the stability and sense of place for the UK, in Scotland the House of Sturgeon is in freefall. Remarkable history all around.
Meanwhile elections excite, or don't. Difficult to read too much into local election results because very often they reflect actual local issues that concern local people. That does not mean hours of political analysis on what it all might mean.
In Northern Ireland the South Belfast bubble will be seeking any reason on why there might be more pressure on the...2023-05-0426 minpoliticalODGreater expectationsPerhaps expecting Gary Lineker to have listened to there recent "The Rest is History" podcast, in which he is financially invested, is too much to expect. Her might have learned something, though perhaps it is all a bit above his head.
The St Patrick's political festival is in full swing in the USA, to where our expenses-paid politicians (and the rest) seem to have decamped.
It is from Washington DC that we learn of the DUP's current view on what it might think of the Sunak Framework, couched in such generalities and uncertainty demanding clarifications. Th...2023-03-1624 minpoliticalODNo bridges nor breakthroughsWhile Harry burns his bridges and asks the family to jump into the void, the UK and EU seem to imagine that if the word 'breakthrough' is used no-one will look too much at the detail. In both instances the truth is out there, somewhere, just not as real as you are asked to imagine.
It isn't clear who the audiences for the outbreak of truths is trying to convince of the veracity to their accounts. Perhaps it doesn't matter. Politics is increasingly conducted in the moment of the last Tweet rather than the reality of life f...2023-01-1233 minpoliticalODWhat’s the big deal?There is a date at the end of October when the Northern Ireland Secretary of State will call an election for the NI Assembly, or find some imaginative way to avoid national law and kick the can down the line.
The issue as to whether an Assembly will be possible after an election is centred on whether or not an 'deal' is made between the EU and the UK Govt that either a) is equal to the intent of the NI Protocol Bill (not currently stalled in the House of Lords, to some people's disappointment) and/or s...2022-10-1431 minpoliticalODTime and tides.This episode takes in a range of issues. Perhaps unconsciously it looks at how patience and focus on straightforward goals can reduce the greatest challenges to achievable goals.
We look at the Queen's role from Empire changed to Commonwealth. How will Liz Truss fare in reversing the technocratic aversion to change and salami slicing the economy towards growth and a dynamic economy that frees people and business to be their best. How might that be reflected in relationships with the EU and approach to the added cost of the NI Protocol to everyday prices, approach to Northern I...2022-09-2230 minpoliticalODNot the silly season.It is a not so silly summer season, with the Conservatives looking for a new leader and the background of high energy costs, strikes, and war. No it is not the 1970s. In particular we don't seem to have the political figures that exude confidence and big ideas on the world stage, nationally nor, noting the death of David Trimble, locally.
2022-07-2929 minpoliticalODStormont in mothballsSeems like we are heading into a period with Stormont being put in storage, mothballed for now, putting on hold all those amazing ideas MLAs have been imagining to solve all the problems of the world. Waiting, of course, for the greatest fanfare of all will be Robin Swann's plan to do what has not been done in twenty years of devolution; to end waiting lists and create the best working NHS anywhere in the UK. Sadly we will have to wait.
First on the agenda is the Northern Ireland Protocol, that constitutional and economic thorn in t...2022-05-1244 minpoliticalODReading the Stormont Election RunesWe don’t have much to go on when it comes to predicting the forthcoming election. The polling is volatile and there’s no reliable data on how many people don’t know who they will vote for or remain undecided.
We look at the three relevant battles; in unionism, in nationalism, and the fight for the so called middle ground. There’s a lot of talk about new, fresh politics, but some of the rhetoric, particularly from Sinn Fein, seems depressingly familiar.
We got here via a few weeks of phoney electoral war, during which th...2022-04-0133 minpoliticalODCrisis reduxFor all the talk of crisis things seem much the same up the hill at Stormont. Sinn Fein wants to see legislation through, but also an early election. What they couldn't do with 28 pieces of legislation they'll need twice as much time to do with fewer, apparently because the DUP pulled Paul Givan out of the Executive and despite that not reducing one day of Assembly time before they close for the always planned election. No journalist has asked a single political leader why that might be.
Meanwhile, Doug Beattie's clean shaven look doesn't seem to have...2022-02-0833 minpoliticalODNew Year, same old...The New Year brought little cheer for Downing Street with a forever list of crises, much of its own making. Perhaps surprisingly, Downing Street is cut some slack on the podcast while the empty demands for the Prime Minister's resignation by Northern Ireland politicians is called out for what it is - hubris.
Meanwhile, since the last podcast, Liz Truss has taken over the role of chief Brexit negotiator. This means that the NI Protocol is now one of many issues in the in-tray, whereas Lord Frost had only one job...
Finally, there is no...2022-01-1427 minpoliticalODIt’s the data stupidDespite claiming to be 'guided by the science' the NI Executive's reluctance to publish 'the evidence', the science and reason on which a decision is being made, seems churlish. It also seems that the politicians in the NI Executive don't quite trust, certainly lack confidence in the data. Added to which any review of the published NISRA data, a daily update on statistics around Covid and health services, even a casual review, raises questions that seem to be unanswered or simply contradictory to what the politicians and health 'experts' are saying. That undermines public confidence in decisions and policy...2021-11-1824 minpoliticalODDevil in the DetailLabour, Conservatives, and most recently the UUP presented fine optics at their respective conferences. Leaders who said a lot about nothing we didn't know already, at best. Boris was Boris, delivering what everyone in the Conference Centre expected of Boris. Sir Keir and Doug Beattie presented speeches that didn't alarm the horses. At least Sir Keir started to articulate a Labour Party of his own design. All the backdrops, bright lights, dancers and comedians (for once, not the politicians) still left a sense of something absent from the UUP.
More structured and very well crafted was the...2021-10-1422 minpoliticalODShort on reasonsWe have heard a lot in Northern Ireland about Executive disagreement on the matter of 'Vaccine Passports'. Less clear, and barely discussed, is either the science that underscores a requirement for restricting 'the unvaccinated' access to hospitality venues. Arguments on encouraging vaccinations or 'saving' the NHS don't add up: the age categories with least vaccination uptake - say 18-30 - are not those showing most positive test results ("cases") or taking up hospital beds.
The approach to policy around 'vaccine passports' seems to be around the same level as Brexit and the Protocol: wildly differing groups, none...2021-10-0128 minpoliticalODProtocol, Policing and PollsCherryvalley will be eating M&S baked beans on toast this Christmas as this one retailer lays bare their shelves in an honest announcement of the reduced Christmas lines for NI shoppers this year. Every indication is that the 'grace periods', currently preventing already challenging restraints on goods from GB to NI becoming brutal, will be extended beyond the 2022 Assembly election to spare the blushes of those calling for 'rigorous implementation'.
Policing is in the news because a Report on policing, meant to be on the subject of South Armagh, seems to have raised more questions than...2021-09-0330 minpoliticalODNI Protocol, Judicial Review, and constitutional risks.While we know there is a Judicial Review of the Protocol in our courts, the key points on which the Protocol is being challenged haven't had much airtime. Efforts by Jim Allister to explain on the BBC Northern Ireland Nolan Show were interrupted (frequently) by the host shouting "but Brexit". With his legal hat on, we give Jim time to set out the legal case, clearly: on the fundamental risk to the Act of Union, on conflict with principles of the NI Act 1998 that underpins the Belfast Agreement, and on the Human Rights issues around democratic legitimacy.
T...2021-06-0442 minpoliticalODPolitics, personalities, policies?Has the DUP leadership contest been precipitated by policy, politics, or a simpler clash of personalities? Hard to say, and more difficult to see how the DUP comes out the other side with a stable leadership. Not that Unionist voters are going to have a massive choice in 2022 - devil you know, or the devil or the deep blue sea.
The accusation of policy designed by focus group has been made. A greater issue is media's apparent obsession with 'polls' for easy headlines and lazy copy, with commentators left to consider why and with little in the a...2021-05-0730 min
The Critic PodcastGetting the barnacles offThe Chairman of the Northern Ireland Select Committee Simon Hoare and David Hoey, businessman and producer of the PoliticalOD podcast debate the merits of the Northern Ireland Protocol with The Critic's Deputy Political Editor David Scullion.2021-04-2034 min
The Critic PodcastGetting the barnacles offThe Chairman of the Northern Ireland Select Committee Simon Hoare and David Hoey, businessman and producer of the PoliticalOD podcast debate the merits of the Northern Ireland Protocol with The Critic's Deputy Political Editor David Scullion.
See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.2021-04-2034 minpoliticalODJust not good enoughA year after the first Covid lockdown, and just over a year of New Decade "new" Approach, the ability of our institutions to address anything much with a degree of competence seems, at best, little improved. The Storey funeral suggests everyone is confused on both law and responsibilities, including those who wrote the law and those who might be expected to uphold the law. The public does not share that ambiguity in respect of what happened at the Storey funeral. More widely devolution is not delivering. It is institutional, or simply that those at the head lack the competence...2021-04-0120 minpoliticalODA roadmap that lacks directionThe UK Budget this past week gave small comfort to small businesses in excluding many from the proposed corporation tax increases. In Northern Ireland that was indeed small comfort to many small businesses. They are doubly troubled. Burdened by the NI Protocol and supply issues that impact directly on competitiveness within the UK internal market, and battered by the indecision of the Northern Ireland Executive's Covid Roadmap that is long on words, short on anything that much informs anyone. "Can't have people in complete darkness as to what comes next," declared the Health Minister (Nolan Live, 3 March). The NI...2021-03-0525 minpoliticalODRisky businessRisk is relative. When the COVID-19 virus has been prevalent in the community, the large numbers who require hospitalisation threaten to overwhelm the health service. That has been true without a working vaccine. Now that there is vaccines being delivered it is clear the threat to the health service will decline - the risk to the NHS declines. That changes the context for the restrictions on personal freedoms.
The NI Protocol may have seemed a good idea at the time (not on this Podcast) but it is clear something is dangerously wrong, and the claims of protecting...2021-02-1126 minpoliticalODTiocfaidh ar latte!Ending the podcast with insightful commentary from the FT that a United Ireland is imminent because there are posh East Belfast coffee shops. Who knew? The remarkable ability to put apples and oranges together and calling it bowl of bananas is a communications trait that seems to be all too prevalent in public discourse, and perhaps the underlying theme of this Episode. The theatre of a disorganised riot becomes an 'insurrection, while democracy is lauded within a cordon of tens of thousands of armed troops. Lockdown is the only policy to 'protect the NHS', as if there was no...2021-01-2229 minpoliticalOD2021 may not be so differentThe pattern of bold policy announcements followed by a failure to deliver seems to be the dominant feature of 2020. Perhaps the recent UK/EU trade agreement will be an exception as it seems to be, for now) - once the NI Protocol as 'best of both worlds' is explained. That can't be said for the New Decade heralded by the resurrection of Stormont that shows little evidence of the promised 'new approach'. There is plenty to be pessimistic about in the performance of Stormont and the Northern Ireland Executive, as individual Parties and as a collective. Internationally, Trump was...2020-12-2824 minpoliticalODBorderline ClusterF#£€!The question is not whether or not there is a trade Agreement between the UK and EU in the first week of December. Rather it is a question of preparedness for either scenario. This episode looks at the monumental scale of unpreparedness, by just about everyone - it isn't just the UK Govt struggling with the reality of it all. There has been some general media reporting on this in recent weeks. We take the opportunity to explain the detail to make the point. In the wake of Covid, NI business needs this debacle like a hole in the...2020-11-2822 minpoliticalODGroundhog DaysGroundhog Days. Once again renewable energy has hit the headlines, though it seems because the funding is covered outside the Stormont budget the schemes haven't managed to elicit the level of public interest that RHI attracted. Also in the news are voices expressing concern about the NI Protocol on Northern Ireland business (particularly retail) and on the consumer. Oddly these same voices supported Theresa May's backstop, which entailed many of the same pitfalls and could have been far more damaging arguably. Finally, in the outworking of the NI Executive response to Covid, policy implementation neither seems fully 'thought-through', nor...2020-10-1627 minpoliticalODAmbiguously certain is not certainty at all.There seems to be a common thread around Governments' pronouncements around Brexit and COVID19 that creates uncertainty and confusion; and that is the ambiguous nature of much of the messaging. We are asked to believe what Government tells us, but find it hard to do so where what we are being told could be interpreted this way or that, and words are not followed through with effective action that would demonstrate certain commitment to a shared goal. Result? Rather than taking back control, there is a sense of drift and lack of direction. In the worst examples this has...2020-09-2224 minpoliticalODAll about the message; future, present, past.Four topics in this episode. First mixed messaging of Covid in NI, then the botched messaging on exams. Required messaging for the Union, particularly heading into the Centenary events around 2021 and the creation of Northern Ireland. Restoring a message based on evidence and reasoned debate rather enabling nationalist slogans to become received truth and a 'black taxi' tour of recent history before established fact. Bit longer than usual, big issues. Links to pieces mentioned on usual blog sites.
2020-08-2528 minpoliticalODYes to infrastructure, but foundations first before grand schemes...A small change planned for how decisions are made by Northern Ireland Ministers might be a big thing. Meanwhile the big changes needed on fundamental services that underpin any economy are not getting the focused attention needed because, look, here's a cycling strategy to get you on your bike or, there, a Boris bridge. Sometimes we forget that for all the photo-ops and tweets, nothing actually happens - take Russia for example, all that meddling and still a pariah at the upper reaches of UK foreign policy: China should take note.
2020-07-2322 minpoliticalODNew Government, same old problemsThere is a new Government in the Republic of Ireland, which may bring a new approach. Damage caused by Fine Gael's aggressive attitude to North/South and East/West relations may be ameliorated by the more thoughtful Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail. The performance of Sinn Fein in Belfast this past weekend has shown how unsuited they are to any coalition, with its complete disregard for anything other than its own sense of itself alone. With more examples of poor public sector management - most recently Charity Commission and LandWeb - a dysfunctional Executive on top of dysfunctional public...2020-07-0219 minpoliticalODApproaching approachesRather than proposals we now have 'approaches', on the Northern Ireland Protocol as part of the UK leaving the EU, and on Legacy from Secretary of State Brandon Lewis. These 'approaches' are long on ambition, short on detail. This episode looks at issues of concern in the UK Government Approach to the Protocol, and then on the current Sinn Fein hissy fit regardingVictim Pensions. Even when legislation is past and things are 'agreed' (New Decade, and it would seem New Approach from everyone but Sinn Fein) we find one Party going off on a different track - guess who?2020-06-0520 minpoliticalODRecap on health reform, no budget, big decisions loomingA brief gap while every day was Covid-19, a short recap on the need for accelerated Health reform. As if that were not a big enough challenge, money is being spent by the Stormont Executive while there is still no basic budget this financial year (none since 2016!), no programme for Government, and therefore no baseline to understand scale or impact of spend on future budgets. There are big decisions to be made very soon. The sort of coalition discussions happening now in the Republic of Ireland, on how to manage future deficits and set priorities, seem unimaginable with Sinn...2020-05-1912 minpoliticalODMaking Stormont betterRHI has exposed weaknesses in the entire Stormont infrastructure, which were already known and ignored in favour of 'Keeping the show on the road'. Despite knowing what needed to be reformed, for 20 years, the current Health Service ought to be so much better - and isn't. We rightly praise our frontline health workers for selfless dedication. Perhaps we’d be better demanding an end to political hobby spending and the reform across the board that Northern Ireland badly requires.
2020-03-2019 minpoliticalODAn uncertain legacyAt Stormont House, Julian Smith has left the building. While lauded for the moment of MLAs returning to the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive, he hardly left behind a Northern Ireland Government that could be described as strong and stable. While Sinn Fein in particular has announced money for many, there is still no budget to understand spending/income, and a Programme for Government is due end of April! Then his undue haste to hasten 'Legacy', and in particular the outworking of the HIU proposals that seem designed to be harass ex-security services personnel in a highly vexatious and...2020-02-1917 minpoliticalODConfidence in short supplyNew Decade (barely) and we're questioning public sector competence around MOT services. The previous decade started with public disquiet around Northern Ireland's water services. In between, RHI and the rest. Meanwhile, almost 20% of current MLAs are 'co-opted'; Party appointees, serving Party first?
New Approach? We don't seem to be able to start a conversation on change.
2020-01-2920 minpoliticalODPromises, promises.All of a sudden, with an almost unseemly haste, a document is waved and everything on Stormont Hill is back to the nothing like normal it was before. The constructed ambiguity of this particular document means that it is truly all things to all Parties, yet perhaps amounting to nothing much. Lots of promises, but who'll be paying?
2020-01-1520 minpoliticalODHealth status, Executive stasis, and Boris's strategic manoeuvres on Brexit.Endless "reports' on Health reform produce little critical or cultural change in frontline delivery of services. And who pays for pay? Little confidence that an Executive would have the will (or ability) to undertake difficult decisions. Why Sinn Fein might need an Assembly far more than any other Party. Finally, Boris's plans for trade arrangements between GB and NI - who knows? Though on negotiation with EU, there has been a shift in the dynamic of negotiation that isn't much discussed.
2019-12-1822 minpoliticalODMedia, asking questions, and the election calm before...At the end of the podcast we remark on how quiet the current election has been. The media gets quite self-important when challenged to tell us more than the obvious. What's behind the headline is often not the copy beneath, which leaves the reader or listener/viewer dissatisfied and wanting more. This episode is a conversation on the current state of public discourse. Perhaps a calm reflection before the next episode which will be after the election, before the New Year....
2019-11-2920 minpoliticalODParty manœuvres, fighting the last election, and who knows what will happen over coming weeks.Political Parties are on manoeuvres, heading into an election. In Northern Ireland local Parties all try to beat (up on) the DUP as a means of making themselves relevant, not actually offering anything new, positive or coherent. While across the UK the outcome of the election might offer a Conservative Government that rushes the Boris version of Brexit through before the 31 January, or not. The election to 'deliver' on Brexit might not deliver on very much.
2019-11-0726 minpoliticalODHubris before husband for de Souza, and risks ahead for Irish 'Father Ted' economy.Hubris before husband, as de Souza vows to keep fighting case which has obvious resolution. There are risks ahead for the Irish 'Father Ted' economic model, including a possible Brexit own-goal?
2019-10-1717 minpoliticalODSwanning on. Rabble Alliance. The big issue bubbling.The leader of the Ulster Unionist Party announced he was leaving his role in due course. The Rabble Alliance in Westminster, all powered up and nowhere to go? Party Conference season's one big issue, barely mentioned in the news reports or election pitches.
2019-10-0118 min
politicalODBackstop or go.@3000Versts and @thedissenter take on politics and stuff in Northern Ireland, and elsewhere. Unionist perspective of course, but hopefully a bit wider and worldly view .
Episode one very much a trial (total experiment), with an unarticulated word or two here and there.
Inevitably, topics are 'Backstop or go' and 'David Cameron, hero or villain?'. Only about 20 minutes. Let us know what you think.
2019-09-1922 min