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RenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Claims vs CommoditiesRenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.2022-09-1612 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Offsides OvercompensationThe RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.2022-09-0918 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Paying More For LessThe RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low for the cycle, and whether growing bearish sentiment is warranted.2022-09-0215 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black HoleNeil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.2022-08-2613 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Rainy Days In Vegas & For The GOPThe RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.2022-08-1917 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: A Summer of SkepticsBiden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.2022-08-1214 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Higher Highs and Lower LowsThe RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.2022-08-0516 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Slowdown vs. RecessionThe RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.2022-07-2919 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.2022-07-2214 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Staring into the AbyssThe RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.2022-07-1514 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Fed’s Hall of MirrorsThe RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and economic policies.2022-07-0815 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Recession Preferable To InflationThe RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.2022-07-0114 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fed Up With The FedThe RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.2022-06-2410 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell PanicsJeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.2022-06-1717 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau?Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.2022-06-1011 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Another Goldilocks Jobs ReportThe RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s inflation omission admission, an improving global economic situation, defining peak inflation, and how the political die is likely cast ahead of November .2022-06-0315 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Can Powell Pull A Maverick?RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.2022-05-2715 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Markets Utter the “R” WordRenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.2022-05-2015 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: A Peek at Peak InflationRenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.2022-05-1311 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Economy Looking Better as Markets Look WorseThe RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.2022-05-0613 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Good Signs In Bad GDP ReportThe RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth impacting next week’s Fed meeting, impact of Trump’s potential Twitter return, COVID’s impact on Biden Fed nominees, FANG oversold conditions, and the impact of a strengthening dollar.2022-04-2917 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Popping Bullard’s BalloonThe RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, parallels to 94 and 04, gap downs more prevalent in downtrends, pickup in defensive areas, Schumer dashes marijuana enthusiasts Hight hopes, and Congress retuning to a crowded calendar.2022-04-2217 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Mimosas and the FedThe RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the Fed will respond, reallocation towards healthcare away from tech, immigration debate holds up COVID relief, Rs feeling better about ’22 and ’24, will the growth last, and the corporate credit market is remaining accommodative.2022-04-0816 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Donna Summer is DancingThe RenMac team discusses the hot payroll number, climbing participation rate, Fed can go longer without breaking the economy, misunderstood inverted yield curve, 3 month and 30 year is a better signal, deterioration in late cycle sectors, peak inflation in next three months, Biden blurring the distinction between income and wealth.2022-04-0119 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation DominationThe RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic assumptions in the budget request, Republicans registering voters at gas stations, COVID concerns subsiding, 20-day numbers looking good but not great, BB vs. BBB spreads narrowing, differentiation determining winners and losers.2022-03-2517 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: If Powell Was A PilotThe RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed meeting, how the recession call is premature, and Powell’s challenges with landing the inflation plane.2022-03-1812 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: The Russian ExcuseThe RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fighting tightening, Biden blaming inflation on Russia, pre-pandemic conditions returning, bears still outnumbering bulls in terms of sentiment, noise around the trends, withdraw of liquidity impacting marginal assets, Powell on tap next week.2022-03-1118 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Boom PersistsThe RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the Union, administration supporting polices that make inflation worse not better, and a lot of bearish sentiment but little momentum at the moment.2022-03-0411 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Hiking Into a BoomRenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting into services, geopolitical tensions and their impact on gold and energy, Iranian deal implications and the convenient political timing on mask removals before Biden’s State of the Union.2022-02-1817 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation NationRenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistance to higher prices, the counter-cyclical impact of short rates and oil, pandemic politics, and the unusual leadership of banks at this part in the cycle.2022-02-1118 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Economy Is Learning To Live With COVIDThe RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for Ds without Lujan on Biden’s Fed nominees and legislative agenda, international bonds breaking out, potential for asset deflation as the Fed fights inflation, cracks in concept capital, why apathy is better than emotion when picking stocks.2022-02-0421 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Returns Drive FlowsThe RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity growth, how returns drive flows, and a desire for a steepening curve.2022-01-2816 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: “Minor Incursion” Has Major ConsequencesThe RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s proposed dot plot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, signs the pandemic might be ending, and what yields are saying.2022-01-2118 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: I’ve Had a Bad Days, but Not Like BidenRenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.2022-01-1415 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Focus on the FedThe RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.2022-01-0718 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: That Damned Yield CurveRenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”2021-12-1717 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big StickNeil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.2021-12-1015 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Data Won’t Dissuade FedRenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kamala or Pete be the heir apparent, the history of inflation and the Fed as well as next week’s inflation data.2021-12-0316 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Moz AfzalMoz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportunities Fund. He has been instrumental in building EFG's global footprint and shares with us how he has continued to manage money effectively while building a trusted team of analysts and PMs around him. Here is our conversation...2021-11-2036 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The FedThe RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.2021-11-1918 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Will Need a Stiff SpineRenmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the relative strength of cyclicals versus weakness in defensive names.2021-11-1214 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Economy and Markets Melt Up In Q4RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout in small cap stocks and the re-opening trade, and what the strong GOP performance in this week’s elections (NJ/VA) mean for current fiscal negotiations.2021-11-0517 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with David FingoldDavid Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more than $13.5B in AUM is unique. David knows what it is to run a business successfully, how to finance it, and consequently what it means to invest in one. He's a bottoms-up stock picker who worries top-down, and his success speaks volumes.2021-10-3059 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: D’s Fumble in the Red ZoneRenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was better), inflation expectations, gold and Virginia’s gubernatorial race.2021-10-2915 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s FingersJeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.2021-10-2213 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Putin Is World’s Most Powerful ManJoin the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Putin, the inflation boom, and how Biden’s climate policy discourages fossil fuel production.2021-10-1514 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Won’t Dissuade the FedRenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues, Manchin drops the F-bomb and the importance of better or worse versus good or bad on Wall Street.2021-10-0817 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Self-inflicted Wounds from WashingtonRenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlogs and end-user demand, the abundant oversold conditions in industry groups, rising yields and the bullish complacency found in corporate credit.2021-10-0115 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes YieldsRenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.2021-09-2413 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Mike MastersMike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer at The University of Tennessee to his first job as a retail stockbroker and finally as the head of his eponymous named firm, Mike’s focus on process and his sheer willingness to succeed has served his investors well. As one of the most active institutional users of derivatives on the street, Mike understands mismatches in perceptions, expectations and calendar quirks, and attempts to exploit those difference to his client's advantage. He’s built a firs...2021-09-1839 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet ExhaustedToday Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.2021-09-1712 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Biden Top-Ticks COVIDGive us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much of the negative sentiment might already be priced into equities, the latest news from DC and why the odds of a government shutdown are 25% and rising as the month progresses.2021-09-1013 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and ApprovalRenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed tapering, the political infighting starting to develop among Ds in DC and the markets unwavering trend.2021-09-0312 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: A D.C. September to RememberThe RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the Fed, and taking the foot off the market accelerator.2021-08-2713 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation TradeRenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.2021-08-2016 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite BidenGive us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.2021-08-1319 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for AugustRenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.2021-08-0615 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie LinkStephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:2021-07-3142 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt CeilingRenmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.2021-07-3017 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes InflationRenmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.2021-07-2316 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Focused on the FedGive us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.2021-07-1611 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2)In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.2021-07-1040 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an IslandGive us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.2021-07-0918 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s FuseRenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.2021-07-0215 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur LafferIn the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.2021-06-2646 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed BlinkRenmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.2021-06-1815 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fearsThe RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.2021-06-1116 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan WeinsteinStan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.2021-06-0559 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon CopyRenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.2021-06-0413 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge BondsSteve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.2021-05-2814 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About RatesRenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.2021-05-2114 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Great UnmaskingRenmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.2021-05-1416 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-fulRenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.2021-05-0713 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned DavisNed Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........2021-05-0143 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year MakesRenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections2021-04-3013 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is CirclingIn 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.2021-04-2314 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard ChiltonRichard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....2021-04-1756 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliabilityThe RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.2021-04-1613 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: People in Glass HousesNeil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.2021-04-0916 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2)Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......2021-04-0347 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1)Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first pa...2021-03-2731 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to PressRenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?2021-03-2613 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are MisleadingRenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.2021-03-1917 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom GallagherTom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:2021-03-1347 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then SomeRenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.2021-03-1215 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening LeadRenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.2021-03-0514 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....2021-02-2753 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s BellyacheRenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.2021-02-2617 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats?RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers2021-02-1915 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott BessentScott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.2021-02-1342 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs RealityRenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead2021-02-1212 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus FuseIn 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.2021-02-0513 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange BedfellowsIn 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.2021-01-2914 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah BlacksteinNoah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....2021-01-2545 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Unity and the Power of UnilateralismRenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially low bar and the building bubble in assets2021-01-2216 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Expectations Collide with RealityIn 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets inflation, and the importance of contrarian thinking around words and rhetoric versus facts.2021-01-1514 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Better Economy But Stimulus Won’t StopRenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goes blue. This is going to find its way into asset prices.2021-01-0815 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fed Passive Easing, Uncle Sam Active EasingRenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for asset prices and Neil’s definition of a “Powder Day”.2020-12-1814 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Energy Stocks Leading, Inflation Is Not FollowingUS equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price inflation just yet. Plus the latest on fiscal negotiations in DC: both sides are likely to drop their must haves for a slimmed down relief bill before year end.2020-12-1115 minRenMacRenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Bright Light at End of the TunnelRenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it remains about credit not COVID.2020-12-0416 min