Shows
Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStephanie Pomboy: When The Next Shakeout Happens, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser?Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns to discuss rising market volatility, record gold & silver prices, concerning failures in the private credit industry & other signs of rising systemic stress.She also takes live viewer Q&A#goldprice #creditspreads #artificialintelligence 0:00 - Gold & Silver Rally: Early Innings or Pullback Ahead?2:16 - Silver's Surge: Supply-Demand Imbalance Exposed2:45 - Gold to $22,000? Backing the Monetary Base3:24 - Bracing for Pullback: De-Risking Drags All Assets4:03 - Long-Term Bull: Hard Assets vs. Paper (S&P Ratio)5:12 - Jamie Dimon: Gold to $5K-$10K Endorsement5:54 - Adam's Caution: Nothing Moves in a Straight Line6:53 - Valuation Gap: Gold Up...
2025-10-161h 13Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs It Time To "Sell The Rip"? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartPortfolio manager Lance Roberts, like Felix Zulauf, thinks the markets will remain volatile until Fall.Stocks will bounce, but then retreat, likely re-testing the lows made earlier this month.For many, this will be frustrating. Investors' hope will be raised, then dashed -- and then raised and dashed again.Lance doesn't expect a true bottom to be put in until the speculators currently in the market are washed out by this volatility.But once it's in, he thinks that will be the time to start going long more aggressively.While he doesn't expect us to get to that point for...
2025-04-261h 58Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs The Worst Now Behind Us? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartAs Felix Zulauf also assesses, Lance Roberts thinks the markets are in a bottoming process.In his estimation, the majority of the negative risks (e.g. tariff uncertainty, slowing economic growth, weakening consumer) are already priced in to stocks and bonds. While he expects markets will likely remain volatile over the next few months and could retest the recent lows, he doesn't expect material new lows. And in the latter half of the year, markets will start pricing in better times ahead.We discuss the reasons why, as well as his latest views on the Administration's policies, bonds and gold...
2025-04-191h 30Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartBasis Trade Blowing Up: Could Usher In GFC 2.0 | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe swift spike in US Treasury yields has caught some of America's largest hedge funds by surprise, and the severe losses they're suffering are suddenly threatening to spill over into the banking system.These "basis trade" players are highly levered in what they considered very safe, very predictable assets.But bond yields jumped so quickly in response to the Trump tariff tempest, that losses -- highly levered ones -- ensued. Now these firms risk defaulting on the banks that provided the leverage for these trades.Could these create another credit system crisis like 2008?It's possible, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts...
2025-04-121h 54Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartMarket Bloodbath: Is This "The Big One"? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks got slaughtered this week in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.The S&P is now off more than -15% from its all-time high earlier this year. The NASDAQ is down over -20% from its ATH and is officially now in a "bear market".So, is this The Big One?Will stocks continue to crash? Perhaps triggering a recession?Or, might there be reasons for a rebound after the dust settles?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss in depth in today's Market Recap. I do my best to ask him the most pressing questions that investors most...
2025-04-051h 28Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartTempest Of Tariffs Shocks Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWall Street likes predictability.And that's proving quite elusive these days.Which explains why stocks have been performing poorly of late.Too many curveballs, many thrown by the new Trump Administration's ever-changing tariff policies, are making it nearly impossible for analysts to make earnings forecasts that aren't completely outdated by the next morning's news cycle.Does that mean stocks will continue struggling from here?It's quite possible, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Technical analysis still suggests stocks are short-term oversold and could bounce soon...but if the curveballs keep coming as fast & furiously as they have been, that uncertainty could...
2025-03-291h 53Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHas A "Tradable Opportunity" For Oversold Stocks Now Arrived? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartYesterday, the S&P 500 (barely) broke a 4-week losing streak of down weeks.On a technical level, stocks remain extremely oversold here and sentiment is similarly at a negative extreme.As portfolio manager Lance Roberts notes, conditions like these are ripe for a market reversal. In his opinion, the odds favor a rally in the near term -- perhaps as soon as next week.We discuss the reasons why, as well as the latest Fed guidance, the true risk of recession, bonds, Tesla, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this Weekly Market Recap.
2025-03-221h 56Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Likely To Bounce Higher From Here | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks have had a rough week, declining through mid-day Friday until finally bouncing in the last few hours.Is the bottom in?It could be, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The downward price action has been so swift, and the sentiment swing so negative, that stocks look very oversold in the near term.So he thinks a continued bounce from here next week is quite likely.We discuss that, plus the growing risk of recession, the latest Trump economic policies (including the new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve), rising unemployment, the housing market and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered...
2025-03-081h 44Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill Stocks Fall Even Further From Here? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThis week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio...
2025-03-011h 40Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartOverly Bullish Investors Risk Losses Of Up To 50% This Year | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartAre investors TOO bullish now?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts is concerned they are. Wall Street is flush with money and throwing it at just about every asset right now.Lance sees a lot of similarities to late 2021/early 2022, right before the over-valued markets corrected by 20%...but many retail investors lost 40-50% of their portfolio wealth because they were exposed to too much leverage.Will that happen this year?We'll find out. But Lance is confident this year will be a lot more volatile than today's complacent investors have become used to.We discuss all this and more, including the recent...
2025-02-151h 44Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartInvestors Now Too 'Overconfident' & 'Giddy' | Michael Lebowitz & Adam TaggartThe market has been tossed a lot of surprises lately -- even a near-black swan (DeepSeek) -- and yet, stocks have shrugged off all the uncertainty.Investor sentiment remains sky-high.And concern of the growing list of risk factors appears quite low.So, is "irrational exuberance" back?That's what portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss in today's video, as well as his current outlook for the bond market, the latest jobs data, the distorting impact single-stock ETFs are having on equity prices, whether the US dollar will strengthen or weaken from here, and Michael's firm's latest trades.For everything...
2025-02-081h 40Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill Stocks Fall Even Further From Here? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThis week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio...
2025-02-011h 40Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDespite DeepSeek Scare, The Market Is "In A Good Spot" | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWell, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine.
The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in stocks looks robust at the moment.
Will this sustain? And for how long?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this, as well as the latest inflation data, the latest GDP data, the increasingly-struggling US consumer, and Lance's firms latest trades.
For everything that mattered...
2025-02-011h 10Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartToo-High Earnings Expectations The Stock Market's Achilles Heel? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartPortfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
2025-01-251h 43Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks At A Decision Point: Which Way Will They Break? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartPortfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next.
We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
2025-01-181h 29Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartTime To Be "Tactically Bearish" Stocks? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes.
For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year.
This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash.
But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have become used to after back-to-back 20%+ annual returns.
We discuss his outlook in depth, as well as the new payrolls data, rising bond yields, why credit spreads remain so tight, and his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered...
2025-01-111h 47Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartA "Disappointing" Year Ahead For Investors? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe stock market has seen two consecutive years of 20% returns.
Will it see similar returns this year?
Highly unlikely, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
Complacent bulls hoping for a repeat performance may well find themselves disappointed with 2025.
We discuss the reasons why, the latest market technicals, the potential impact of domestic terrorist acts could have on the financial markets, and Bob Farrell's Top 10 Investment Rules on today's program.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
2025-01-041h 23Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs This The Peak Of The Stock Market? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe world is in love with US stocks right now.
Valuations are at or near all-time record highs. Same with measures of euphoria and investor confidence in stocks.
US stocks have never made up as a great a percentage of global market cap as they do now.
Retail investors (including seniors!) have never been this long stocks.
As portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains in this interview, we only see conditions like these are market peaks.
So, is the stock market peaking here?
Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as his key takeaways from 2024, his market outlook for 2025, and...
2024-12-281h 14Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartAfter Fed Scare, Will The Grinch Ruin The Santa Rally? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected.
Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked.
Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder:
Is a Santa Claus rally still likely?
Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest inflation data, his macro and market outlook for 2025, and his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.
...
2024-12-211h 51Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs A Santa Claus Rally Into Year End Still Likely? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds.
Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur?
Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction risk in 2025, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
2024-12-141h 44Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks So Euphoric A Pullback Is Likely Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!)
While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback.
We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicators for the S&P, market sentiment, the latest Payrolls data, the risk of a much larger market correction in 2025, as well as Lance's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.
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2024-12-071h 46Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHas The Market Become Blind To Risk? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartCredit spreads are about the tightest they've ever been in history. High yield (aka "junk") debt is priced at very low premium to US Treasury debt, the safest asset in the world
That says the bond market is just not worried about risk.
So either, "everything truly is awesome"...or the market is mis-pricing risk here, perhaps dangerously so.
Whether or not that's the case, it's highly unlikely those expecting a material downwards market correction will see one until credit spreads start widening. Which is why monitoring them closely is such a high priority.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I...
2024-11-301h 42Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartS&P To Hit 6200 Next Month?? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWhile stocks have been choppy the 20 Day Moving Average has been acting as solid support.
If it indeed holds and stocks rebound, the rising uptrend will remain intact and S&P 6200 becomes a real possibility by the end of December.
That would indeed make for a jolly "Santa Claus rally".
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this happening, as well as year end portfolio planning strategies, Bitcoin, the perverse incentive driving today's financial system, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Weekly Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE...
2024-11-231h 24Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartThe Trump Rally In Stocks Is Already Undone. What Comes Next? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn this week's Weekly Market Recap portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I talk about the round-trip the stock market has made since the Election.
Is the rally likely to resume? Or was the exuberance short-lived?
We also talk bonds, the recent inflation numbers, Lance's recent trades, and the wisdom of conducting year-end planning on your portfolio before 2025 arrives.
For that and more, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#trumpeconomy #stockmarketrally #inflation
2024-11-161h 42Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartS&P Surges To 6000 Following Trump Victory | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week.
Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
This week also saw the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by a further 0.25%, with Fed Chair projecting confidence that a soft landing is in the cards.
All this raises an interesting question:
If bull markets "climb a wall of worry", are we running out of worry?
...
2024-11-091h 21Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartSpooked Markets To Remain Jittery Until Election Resolves | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#election2024 #magnificent7 #payrolls
2024-11-021h 36Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart6-Week Win Streak For Stocks Just Ended | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks.
That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often.
And...it ended yesterday.
Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts would not be surprised to see a near-term pullback deepen from here, especially given how close the US presidential election is at this point.
It would be very rational for fund managers to lock in some...
2024-10-261h 32Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartBullish Indicators Galore, But Stocks Overbought In Short Term | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartBullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered.
All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking overbought and some sort of pullback feels warranted.
Lance and I talk about this potential run-up into the end of the year, as well as rising liquidity, credit spreads, earning estimates, volatility and much more in this week's Market...
2024-10-191h 16Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Are EXPENSIVE, Yet A New Buy Signal Just Triggered | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023.
Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue?
Stocks are richly priced here.
And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal).
So investors need to determine how much risk they want to take to pursue upside from here vs the growing risks of overvaluation.
Lance and...
2024-10-121h 24Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartShort-Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWhile there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken.
Other than that, though, the developments this week have been largely favorable for the economy. Very strong jobs numbers (if we can believe them), a resolution to the longshoremen strike that threatened to paralyze ports along the US Gulf and East coasts, and a potential...
2024-10-051h 51Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill Stocks Melt-up To S&P 6000+ Soon? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn the wake of interest rates cuts now coming from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of China, could the stock market experience a melt-up to S&P 600 -- or higher -- by the end of the year?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks it's quite possible, especially given stocks' recent technical breakout.
We talk in depth about that in this week's Market Recap, as well as the latest inflation data (PCE), the recent revisions to GDP, GDI and personal savings, and the continued risk to the Yen/Dollar carry trade now that a more hawkish Japanese Prime Minister...
2024-09-281h 40Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartInterest Rate Cuts Just Changed Everything! | Michael Lebowitz & Adam TaggartThe Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis point this week, ushering in a new monetary regime. Investors need to the know that the playbook has changed.
Delivering what sounded like a "mission accomplished" press conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is projecting confidence that inflation is nearly beaten, unemployment remains low, and economic growth is solid. He doesn't see recession as a visible threat here.
So has the Fed indeed achieved a soft landing?
Or... is the large rate cut a sign the Fed is actually worried it's already behind the curve?
I discuss this with portfolio...
2024-09-211h 14Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHealthy Relationships Are A Huge Part Of True Wealth | Ashley TaggartWe're going to do something a little different in today's video.
This Thoughtful Money channel is all about wealth-building. So makes sense that we focus most of our attention on money.
But money is a means to an end. It's not an end in and of itself. No one's goal in life is to die atop a big pile of cash -- instead we hope to use our money to better enjoy the things that really feed our souls.
As those who live to be 100 years old tell us, true wealth, the things that really matter in life, are...
2024-09-1656 minThoughtful Money with Adam TaggartThe Correction In Stocks Is Over...For Now | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWell, the correction that was underway last week appears to have been short-lived.
Stocks bounced hard this week, with the S&P up over 200 points.
We're at an important point technically, where the current momentum needs to continue to affirm the rally. If not, and we get a triple top, there's a decent chance stocks could then resume a downward slide.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the inflation and jobs data that came out this week, the approaching Fed rate cut(s), the importance of optimism to successful investing and Lance's firm's recent...
2024-09-141h 49Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartThe Market Correction Has Started | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September.
They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower.
Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here.
The big question from here is: how far will it go?
Lance and I discuss that, plus the weakening jobs data, a recent un-inversion of the yield curve, the sell-off in AI darling Nvidia, and Lance's firm's...
2024-09-071h 38Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart"Markets Are NOT Priced For Slowing Earnings" | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks.
Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy.
But there are multiplying signs that trouble lies ahead, especially in terms of consumer spending. If the economy does indeed slow from here, earnings will fall and stock prices will suffer.
Right now, stocks are NOT priced for slowing earnings.
Lance and I...
2024-08-311h 48Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Likely To Be On A "Choppy Road To Nowhere" Until Election | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartNow that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher?
Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house.
He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney...
2024-08-241h 35Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart"The Bulls Are Back" & Stock Prices Look Set To Move Higher | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago.
Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over?
Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #bullmarket #recession
2024-08-171h 45Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIt's Unlikely We've Hit A Tradable Bottom Yet | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWhat a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday.
Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks.
And then...everything reversed.
Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US.
So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-off over? Is now the time to buy back in?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts doesn't think so (yet). In this week's Market Recap, we discuss why, as well as his outlook for the months...
2024-08-101h 37Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHow Low Will The Market Sell-Off Go? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartFriday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-off
From their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7%
How much further will the sell-off go?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated Market Recap, along with the recent jobs data, the FOMC release, Jerome Powell's recent press conference, the latest market technicals, and Lance's recent trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
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2024-08-031h 56Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs The Stock Sell-Off Over? Or Is This A Head-Fake Rally? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWhile it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet.
He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks.
We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odds, Zombie company risk, the un-inverting yield curve, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For all the mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial...
2024-07-271h 52Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartRough Week For Stocks As Credit Spreads Issue Warning | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWell, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction.
And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days.
Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen.
But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds...
2024-07-202h 00Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartFed Fears Too-High Rates Are Starting To Crush The Economy | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartYes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon.
But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy.
Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts before the wheels come off. We're already seeing concerning signs: 1.5% (or less) GDP growth for 2024 so far, rising unemployment, runaway deficits and struggling consumers.
Can the Fed ride to the rescue before...
2024-07-131h 18Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart"Massive Deviation" Between The Markets & The Economy | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThere is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter.
This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance.
And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in Q1 and currently at 1.7% (and slowing) here in Q2, asset price reduction indeed seems like the more probable outcome.
In this video, Lance and I discuss this, as well as market technicals...
2024-07-061h 50Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart"Beneath The Surface The Market Looks Terrible" | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartToday's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index.
But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance.
We discuss why, as well any impact this week's presidential debate is likely to have on markets,
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
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2024-06-291h 39Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWe're Due For A Correction | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWith stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction"
He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting.
Lance and Adam review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan’s Norinchukin Bank and it's announced liquidation of its US Treasury portfolio poses a risk to bond market, the dangers of private investing, and the worrying extent to just how far the S&P 500 is trading above historical va...
2024-06-221h 51Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Remain Overbought. Will Poor Earnings End The Rally? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher.
What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious.
Lance and I talk about that, the recent Fed guidance, the weak jobs market, and do a detailed walk-though of Lance's new & improved SimpleVisor service in this week's update.
SIGN UP FOR SIMPLEVISOR OR SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#unemployment #federalreserve...
2024-06-151h 41Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill Coming Week's Inflation & Fed News Cause Markets To Pop Or Drop? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in.
If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table.
But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters.
We discuss these odds, as well as...
2024-06-081h 51Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartNear -Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets.
This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off.
The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared.
And this...
2024-06-011h 43Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartExtended, Overbought Market Likely To "Cool Its Heels" Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIt's been a week to remember for stocks...
After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value.
The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon.
We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk...
2024-05-251h 43Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Zoom Back To All-Time Highs. Will They Stick? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThree week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over.
Nope.
Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs.
Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely.
Lance and I discuss...
2024-05-181h 26Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks May Cool Off For A Bit After Best Week Of 2024 | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe Dow just had its best week of 2024.
And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.
As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.
Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well...
2024-05-111h 41Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartBuy Signal Triggered As Market Action Starting To Favor The Bulls | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.
But in which direction?
We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.
Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.
...
2024-05-041h 40Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartA More Cautious Fed Signals 'High For EVEN Longer' Interest Rates | Axel MerkYesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month.
Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start...
2024-05-021h 02Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs The Market Correction Over? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIs the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over?
It's looking like it could be.
But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future.
But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in store.
...
2024-04-271h 42Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartS&P Drops Below 5000: How Much Farther Is It Likely To Fall? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWell, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.
Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.
How low is this pullback likely to go?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.
And as usual, Lance shares the trades his...
2024-04-201h 48Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartGet Ready For "Much Larger Swings To The Downside" | Adam KobeissiThe headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.
The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"
But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.
Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).
So why is there such a big disconnect here?
For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital market...
2024-04-181h 05Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Have Broken Below Their Trendline. Will They Regain It? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.
The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%
Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.
But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so...
2024-04-121h 43Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStock Rally Showing Cracks? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartAre cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so.
His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling.
If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend is intact.
But if not, and the 20 DMA becomes resistance instead of support, that's a strong sign the rally is cooked for now.
We discuss this, as well...
2024-04-061h 45Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartElection Uncertainty To Cause Market Correction By Summer? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartNearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate.
Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches.
Markets hate uncertainty, and with a close election expected, not just for the Presidency but for the chambers of Congress as well, it's likely investors will start selling and moving towards the sidelines as summer approaches.
Lance and I discuss that, as well as concerning new jobs data, the...
2024-03-301h 39Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartBlackout Of Stock Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartAs Q1 concludes, corporations are starting to enter the blackout period preventing them from buying back their stock until they've released their quarterly earnings (weeks away for most companies)
That temporarily removes THE most important buying support for shares.
Combine that with other expected net liquidity reductions in Q2, such as the end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) running dry, and think could get quite bumpy for financial assets.
After all, Lance has been expecting a ~10% correction for a while now, and the markets have only moved higher -- increasing the...
2024-03-231h 18Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartNo Doubt About It: Stock Prices Remain Very Stretched Here | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartStocks pretty much ended the week where they began.
Is the raging rally that has propelled stocks higher so far this year finally running out of gas?
Quite possibly thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Valuations remain at extremely stretched extremes for many assets including story stocks like Nvida, speculative assets like Bitcoin...and even gold.
As he has been predicting for several weeks now, Lance cautions that a 5-10% correct in the markets is highly likely at this point. It's time to hedge your positions and/or take gains.
We address all this, as well as inflation, jobs, recession...
2024-03-161h 28Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart'Juggernaut' Rally Ripe For A Correction | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWell, another week, another all-time high in stocks.
Valuations are now stretched to extremes only seen near a bubble top, and volatility is low...too low.
The odds of a pull-back, perhaps a larger correction, are concerningly high enough to make this now a time to hedge your positions, advises portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
In this video, he & I discuss how much more room to run high fliers like Nvidia have, what's happening with bonds, the growing risk of slowing liquidity, the latest (and dumbfounding payrolls jobs data, as well as what trades...
2024-03-091h 32Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStock Rally 'Extremely Long In The Tooth' | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartInvesting great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly".
But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive"
Who's closer to right?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher.
But given that the S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated.
We...
2024-03-021h 42Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs The Ongoing Meltup A Gift? Or A Danger? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth.
The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back.
Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many companies like price-to-earnings & price-to-sales are being stretched, taffy-like, to extremes rarely seen.
Are markets back to 'irrational exuberance'?
Or is this just a great time for investors to make gains?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares how his firm is navigating the feeding frenzy...
2024-02-241h 45Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartOdds Of Market Correction Rising As Retail 'Dumb Money' Piles In | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party.
These are classic late-stage signs of a topping market.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that a pullback is now highly likely, though he warns he would not be surprised if the S&P ran up another 100 points from here before it arrives. Animal spirits (i.e...
2024-02-171h 29Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartNow That S&P 5,000 Has Been Hit, Is It Time To Lock In Gains? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.
So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?
Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.
He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.
2024-02-101h 58Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStock Prices Now In 'Positive Feedback' Loop | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same.
Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term.
How much longer can the melt-up last for?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new...
2024-02-031h 44Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill The Current Bull Stampede In Stocks Turn Into A Bearish One? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartNEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week.
It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%)
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where rising prices entice more investors into the market, leading to even higher prices, and so on…
It’s a lot of fun if you’re long.
But realize that pure emotion is driving the action, not...
2024-01-281h 49Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDebate On "Peak Cheap Oil": Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam RozencwajgA month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it.
To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement.
Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video.
Today, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Goering & Rozencwajg, natural resource investors, sits down for a discussion with Doomberg -- which will moderated by yours truly -- to debate, or better "co-explore", the question: Looking...
2024-01-251h 18Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHousing Market To Suffer 'Aggregate Price Decline' This Year | Melody WrightThe US real estate market remains frozen.
Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.
As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.
Melody expects the spring selling season to finally...
2024-01-211h 20Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHow Bullish Is The New Market All-Time High? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartThe S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024?
Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%.
Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought.
Plus, the potential looming challenges of the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could...
2024-01-201h 46Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartThe Fed Fears A Liquidity Crisis More Than An Inflationary One | Jim BiancoRumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024.
Is the end of QT indeed imminent?
If so what will the implications be?
To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.
Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing po...
2024-01-181h 21Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartAvoiding Recession Won't Be Easy With The Economic Challenges In Play | Andy ConstanIt's a tough time to be an investor.
There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals.
After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return.
What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment?
For guidance...
2024-01-161h 07Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartGrowth Slowdown & Returning Inflation Are The Key Turning Points For 2024 | Lakshman AchuthanThe real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action.
Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors.
Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them?
Lakshman predicts the slowing growth (e.g., recession) and a return of inflation will be the key themes of 2024. Investors should prepare for both in their portfolio positioning.
Follow Lakshman at https...
2024-01-141h 50Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDo Steepening Yield Curves = Recession Near? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartPortfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts.
Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun?
Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in the S&P, the latest on the bond market, the just-released December inflation data, the new Bitcoin ETF, and, as usual, Lances' firm's latest trades.
Learn more about Lance's event on Sat...
2024-01-131h 52Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartBear Market, Recession, Layoffs: Lots Of Ways For 2024 To Get Worse | John RubinoHow stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially?
The markets seem confident it's quite stable.
But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election.
What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino...
2024-01-121h 22Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartWill Stagflation Be The Price We Pay For A 'Soft Landing'? | Cem KarsanWell it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money.
And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.
He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm thrilled we've been finally able to make an interview with him happen.And he thinks we're early on in a new secular change that will make the coming decade look and f...
2024-01-091h 03Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStephanie Pomboy: Will The Rise Of Moral Hazard Be Our Economic Downfall?Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024.
Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high.
Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of recession?
For answers, we're lucky to talk today with top Thoughtful Money fan-favorites Stephanie Pomboy, economic & financial analyst and publisher of the respected research firm Macro...
2024-01-071h 44Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs This A Garden-Variety Pullback Or Something More Worrisome? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood" at the component data.
And as usual, Lance also shares his most firm's most recent trades.
Learn more about Lance's conference on Sat Jan 27, 2024...
2024-01-061h 53Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartExpect Lower Oil Prices In The New Era Of Abundant Supply | DoombergNothing happens in an economy without energy.
And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B.
Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East.
Wh...
2024-01-041h 05Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDarius Dale: "I'm About As Bullish As I Can Possibly Be" Looking At The Next 3 MonthsWhen I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.
So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024?
In this video we ask the man himself.Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42
SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel
#bullmarket #stocks #bonds
2024-01-021h 12Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartJim Rogers: Before It's All Over, We'll See Higher Inflation, Higher Rates & A Wicked Bear MarketThe past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year.
Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful.
High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building.
In this interview, Jim explains why he believes the next market correction will be the worst of his lifetime, and why he sees higher inflation and higher...
2023-12-311h 27Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartFiscal Spending Is Having A FAR Bigger Impact Than Investors Realize | Kevin Muir, The Macro TouristWe're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray.
And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy.
But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days?
How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world?
For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world.
Kevin sees the impact of the...
2023-12-281h 15Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks To Keep Heading Higher Until Inflation Starts Rising Again | Bloomberg's Simon WhiteWall Street was extremely pessimistic heading into 2023, and the year surprised to the upside.
Here at the end of the year, markets are now brimming with optimism and the S&P is trading at an all-time high.
Is the momentum likely to continue?
Or will 2024 be another surprise year for investors, this time to the downside?
For an analyst's perspective, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.
ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes...
2023-12-261h 03Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartRising Liquidity To Power Markets Higher Through 2025? | Michael Howell2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs.
How did this happen?
Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening?
In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats.
How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here?
To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.
2023-12-241h 49Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartOverbought Stock Market Likely To Pullback, Then Power Even Higher | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn this final Weekly Market Recap of 2024, portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains why a short-term correction in stocks (and bonds, too) is highly likely. They've simply move so far, so quickly that technically-speaking they are at dangerously high overbought extremes.
He thinks such a pull-back will be short-lived though. There's little standing in the way of stock moving even higher as we enter Q1, especially now that the Federal Reserve is guiding it will ease more than previously expected. Plus, a recession still looks unlikely anytime soon, jobs are still solid and inflation is coming down -- it's a...
2023-12-231h 25Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart"Unhealthy" Housing Market Stuck In A Tug-Of-War | Lance LambertWhile 2023 was a much better year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well.
Instead, 2023 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines.
Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices start plummeting under today's high mortgage rates?
Or will the housing market prove resilient as we enter 2024?
To find out, we'll talk with real estate analyst Lance Lambert, former real estate editor for Fortune and now co-founder & editor of ResiClub.
2023-12-201h 12Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartStocks Are Richly-Priced & The Economy Is Late-Stage, So 'Selectivity' Is Key | Cameron DawsonBy many calculations, the stock market has returned to rich valuations.
Following one of the best Novembers in market history and now juiced by fresh optimism for rate cuts -- now 3 of them -- in 2024, how valid are concerns that stocks are becoming increasingly overpriced and a pullback is warranted?
To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth
Follow Cameron on X/Twitter: @camerondawson
Or on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-dawson-cfa-89754b22/
SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart...
2023-12-191h 06Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartThe World Order Is Fraying. Will The Global Economy Survive? | Michael EveryIn my recent interview with Felix Zulauf he mentioned that we are shifting from a unipolar world order into a multipolar world dis-order.The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Europe and Australia, so to provide a perspective from a point of view outside of the West, we're fortunate to hear from Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, who is based out of Singapore.Michael is concerned that the playbook nations are familiar with does not apply to the future dynamics ahead. Globalization is reversing in many corners of the world...
2023-12-171h 34Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs The Fed Scared Of Something They're Not Telling Us About? | Michael Lebowitz & Adam TaggartLance Robert's portfolio co-manager Michael Lebowitz kindly steps in this week while Lance is away. Like many, he was caught off guard by the Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish guidance this week.
There's not an obvious reason why the Fed changed its stance on interest rate cuts so swiftly. Just two weeks ago, Jerome Powell was saying that his committee was not even talking about rate cuts yet.
So what changed?
Could the plans to cut rates more aggressively than previously guided be a sign the Fed is spooked by something Powell isn't telling us about? Like greater odds of...
2023-12-161h 27Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartFelix Zulauf: Stocks To Crash A Gut-Wrenching 40% Next Year?As 2023 begins to draw to a close, investors are feeling substantially better than they were are the start of the year.
And as we enter 2024 where is all this headed?
Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year?
Or will 2024 see a return to the downside?
I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, Felix Zulauf, founder & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, who presciently predicted we have entered the "decade of the roller coasters" where markets will rise and fall dramatically as...
2023-12-1051 minThoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDid The Santa Claus Rally Already Happen? Pullback Likely Ahead | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartWith such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point.
In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "...
2023-12-091h 34Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDanielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed's Sins Are Finally Going To Catch Up With Us In 2024Many of the guests appearing on this program recently, though perhaps none more than I, have warned that the Lag Effect will eventually catch up with the economy.
That the tighter monetary conditions, the higher cost of capital, the rising lending standards -- are all increasing the gravitational force pulling downwards on economic growth. That at some point, "something important, or multiple somethings, will start to break"
Is that indeed the likely scenario from here?
And if so, is 2024 likely to be the year the Lag Effect arrives in force?
To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with...
2023-12-0754 minThoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs Liquidity Foiling The Fed's Efforts To Tame Inflation? | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartIn this week's market recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that both stocks and bonds remain short-term overbought here and are likely to experience a near-term selloff. After that thought, he does expect stocks to rise again into the end of the month, perhaps making new highs for the year.
He also notes that as asset prices rise, it loosens financial conditions which goes against the Fed's tightening efforts. Assets are likely rising in part to the substantial liquidity pumped into the system by a ~$200 billion recent rise in central banking reserves, as well as fiscal deficit spending. These...
2023-12-021h 34Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartShort-Term Pullback Ahead: Stocks & Bonds Are Overbought | Lance Roberts & Adam TaggartTo learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/In this week's market recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts reiterates his call for a near-term pullback in both stocks in bonds, as both look overbought given how quickly prices for both have recently risen.
After the pullback, which he expects sometime between now & mid-Dec, Lance thinks it's more likely than not that stocks power to new highs by the end of the year. How they'll perform in 2024, though, is a totally different story...
Lance and Adam...
2023-11-251h 29Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartDebate On The US Dollar: Will It Soar Or Sink From Here? | Brent Johnson vs Matthew PiepenburgIn this video, we're witness to a "meeting of the minds" between two top monetary experts, who each will argue their predicted path for the US dollar from here.
We're very fortunate to be joined by Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and developer of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, which will serve as the foundation upon which today's discussion will be built.
Serving as a counterpoint perspective will be Matthew Piepenburg, Commercial Director at Matterhorn Asset Management AG - GoldSwitzerland
This is not a debate so much as a "co-exploration", as there are many points our speakers agree on...
2023-11-211h 23Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart2024 "Going To Be A Lot Worse" For Markets As Tech Stocks Implode | Fred HickeyHeading into 2024, we may be witnessing a change in a number of trends.
The October CPI numbers suggest inflation is moderating faster than expected. If that proves true, this may mean the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign of hiking interest rates is over.
And if that is true, the 3-year beating the bond market has suffered may be coming to an end.
As for stocks, they've been powered higher all year by the Magnificent 7 -- Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.. But even there, we may be witnessing a regime change.
To clarify whether these are indeed...
2023-11-191h 09Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartHow Much Juice Does The Rally In Stocks Have Left? | Lance Roberts & Adam TagartYes, the Saturday weekly market reviews between Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts are back!
In today's video, Lance shares his expectation that the rally in stocks will likely continue through year end, though he predicts a short-term selloff is both likely and welcome at this point.
Bonds are starting to finally behave the way he has been forecasting for the past several months. He expects them to be largely range-bound (UST10yr between 4.0-4.5%) for the coming quarter or two, and then expects prices to rise by mid-2024 as yields resume declining.
Lance concludes by asking Adam the most-commonly asked...
2023-11-181h 30Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartNobel Prize-Winning Economist Sees Era Of "Permacrisis" Ahead | Michael Spence (w/ Adam Taggart)Michael Spence, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, sits down with Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to discuss the findings of his new book "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World" which he co-authored with Mohamed El-Erian & Gordon Brown.
Spence explains how at the heart of today’s "permacrisis" are broken approaches to growth, economic management, and governance. While these approaches are broken, they are not beyond repair. An explanation of where we’ve gone wrong, and a provocative, inspiring plan to do nothing less than change the world, Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Frac...
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