Shows
The Macro Trading FloorRecession Risks & ReflexivityAlf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.
To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg
Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/2025-05-0236 minThe Macro Trading FloorTrillions of US Dollars To Sell?!This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on BloombergWant to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg2025-04-2532 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe Bond Vigilantes Are HereAlf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US. Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso PeccatielloWant to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent DonnellyTranscript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/2025-04-1136 minThe Macro Trading FloorYou Ready For Liberation Day?Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades.Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/2025-03-2836 minThe Macro Trading FloorWake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is HugeAlf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.comIf you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.2025-03-0736 minThe Macro Trading FloorGrowth Scare: Yes or No?Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?Interested in Alf's institutional macro research?Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.comInterested in Brent's daily FX research reports?Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX2025-02-2837 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe Next Big Macro TradeMarkets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be.Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.comWant access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20fe...2025-02-2135 minThe Macro Trading FloorHow To Trade Tariff DayIn this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities.Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly)Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cashTranscript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/2025-01-1733 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe UK Bond Market Is ImplodingAlf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets.Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/2025-01-1035 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe US Dilemma in 2025Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf?Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg.Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com...2024-12-1336 minThe Macro Trading FloorTrading Trump 2.0Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/2024-12-0633 minThe Macro Trading FloorTrump's Secret AgendaIn this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.co...2024-11-0834 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe Bond Market Is On FireHeading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86Check out Brent's research: https://ww...2024-10-2536 minThe Macro Trading FloorFinancial Repression Is Here To StayAlf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q...2024-10-1838 minThe Macro Trading FloorWhat If The Fed Made a Mistake?Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/Transcript: htt...2024-10-1139 minThe Macro Trading FloorMacro Risks On The HorizonEXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCEhttps://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF.Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more.Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/2024-10-0434 minThe Macro Trading FloorUnpacking The Chinese Stimulus BazookaThe Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired.Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus.As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying.But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus?Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show.Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/Tr...2024-09-2736 minThe Macro Trading FloorHow To Trade The Fed Cutting CycleAlf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads.https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/2024-09-2035 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe World is Different NowAlf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.sp...2024-09-1341 minThe Macro Trading FloorWill The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/2024-09-0636 minThe Macro Trading FloorHow & When The Best Macro Investors Use OptionsIn this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearchSign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe...2024-08-2340 minThe Macro Trading FloorA Tale of Crowded Macro TradesAlf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to.Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on BloombergBrent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.comTranscript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/2024-08-1036 minThe Macro Trading FloorMacro Mayhem!Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro?To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioningTranscript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/2024-08-0239 minThe Macro Trading FloorExplaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-OffThis week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades?The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.2024-07-2637 minThe Macro Trading FloorWhere To Find Cheap Macro OptionalityAlf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor?Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on BloombergAnd take advantage of Brent's course offer!Think Like a Market Professional:www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 offSt...2024-07-1939 minThe Macro Trading FloorIt's Macro ShowTime!Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello)You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly)Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://el...2024-07-1239 minThe Macro Trading FloorWhat Powell Really MeantA big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent?Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on BloombergPing Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg2024-06-1439 minThe Macro Trading FloorRisk Management PrinciplesAlf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in.Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/schoolTranscript of this ep...2024-06-0738 minThe Macro Trading FloorDon't Make This MistakeFree Trial to Alf's Institutional Research?Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info!In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show.Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets.Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets?Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com2024-05-3128 minThe Macro Trading FloorHow Macro Traders Navigate UncertaintiesWant to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen:https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.Plus, they...2024-05-2437 minThe Macro Trading FloorHow To Trade Macro Now?(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China: 2024-05-1735 minThe Macro Trading FloorEarly Signs of WeaknessThe Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.Is the market ready for a regime switch?Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.Links mentioned in the show:https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab32024-05-1037 minThe Macro Trading FloorA New Fed Put?Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week. Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e5552024-05-0337 minThe Macro Trading FloorA Contrarian Macro ThesisUS Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!2024-04-2637 minThe Macro Trading FloorWhat if Hikes are Stimulative?!The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/2024-04-1936 minThe Macro Trading FloorYes, But What Will Break Markets?This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?2024-04-1237 minThe Macro Trading FloorMacro Traders ReflectionsAlf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surfaceThe Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey2024-03-2936 minThe Macro Trading FloorVolatility is ComingThe bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/2024-03-1535 minThe Macro Trading FloorAnimal Spirits Running LooseAlf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.2024-03-0839 minThe Macro Trading FloorMacro Opportunities Around The WorldAlf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of The Macro Trading Floor! Link to the Kelly Criterion article: https://capitalgains.thediff.co/p/bankroll2024-03-0136 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe AI 5 versus the S&P 495Tech stocks are pushing stock indexes higher, with AI-related companies (NVIDIA?) leading the rally more decisively while the ''S&P 495'' doesn't join the party. Alf and Andreas discuss this trend, update us on the debt ceiling negotiations, and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ - Andreas' website: https://stenoresearch.com/ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your ow...2023-05-2836 min
The Macro Trading FloorA Macro Trader Playbook with Jim LeitnerHow does a professional macro investor think about a multipolar world where investment opportunities and challenges might lie outside the US and China? How does he manage risks, correlations and how does he go about finding new trade ideas and implementing them? Jim Leitner is one of the great long-standing macro investors of our time and he joins Alf on The Macro Trading Floor to answer these questions. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's website: https://www.themacrocompass.com...2023-05-2138 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Debt Ceiling Drama is ApproachingThe X-Date for the debt ceiling is approaching and US politicians don't seem keen in finding a swift resolution. This will impact global liquidity, the bond markets and the US Dollar. Alf and Andreas discuss this theme, reflect over US inflation and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ - Andreas' website: https://stenoresearch.com/ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please...2023-05-1437 minThe Macro Trading FloorThe Credit Crunch is HereSubscribe to The Macro Trading Floor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- Alf and Andreas discuss the recent Federal Reserve and ECB decisions and the market reactions. They also dig deep into the unfolding regional bank crisis and discuss the credit crunch in the US and in the Eurozone. Finally, towards the end of the show they highlight actionable trade ideas and investment strategy. -- If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's website: https://ww...2023-05-0734 min
The Macro Trading FloorFirst Republic Under Stress, Now What?Subscribe To The Macro Trading Floor: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued banking turmoil as First Republic Bank lost around $100 Billion in deposits & saw its stock plunge over 95%. How will this impact loan growth & credit creation in the economy, and how will that in turn impact markets? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www...2023-04-3043 min
The Macro Trading FloorWhat's Happening In Global Macro?Subscribe to The Macro Trading Floor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas take a tour of the global macro landscape by looking at the key themes to watch around the globe. We discuss the signals emerging out of Asia and how this will spillover into European & U.S markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass...2023-04-2338 min
The Macro Trading FloorHere Is Why Markets Are RallyingOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas begin by breaking down the bank earnings on the back of the recent banking turmoil across markets. We then discuss why markets are rallying as everything from the S&P, Banks & Bitcoin begin to retrace prior losses. With the U.S Dollar also erasing its gains against other major currencies, is this the perfect environment for a continued rally, or not? Finally, Alf & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when...2023-04-1638 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Hiking Cycle Is OverOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the recent economic data releases and the growth slowdown they are signalling. We then explore the chances of a Fed pause/pivot. Have the probabilities increased since the recent turmoil in the banking system has given the Fed more cover to reign in their hawkish stance? Finally, Alfonso & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www...2023-04-0934 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe End of The US Dollar?On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas begin by discussing the banking turmoil of recent weeks and how commercial real estate could impact loan books in both the U.S and Europe. Alfonso & Andreas then move on to discuss the hot topic of the week, the U.S Dollar. With headlines hitting the wire mentioning energy transactions being conducted in Yuan and further relations between the BRICS nations, some investors believe this is a pivotal moment in the end of the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency. Alfonso & Andreas walk through what characteristics make a world...2023-04-0233 min
The Macro Trading FloorBanks: The Big PictureOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued turmoil across the banking sector. Alfonso & Andreas break down the liquidity measures set in place for the current period of banking turmoil which include the Fed's discount window, Bank Term Funding Program and the record $60 billion usage in the FIMA repo facility. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch...2023-03-2648 min
The Macro Trading FloorFrom Liquidity To A Credit CrisisOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for markets. The Fed's H.4.1 report was released this past week, which saw the balance sheet increasing by roughly $300 Billion. The balance sheet increase consisted of a record $152.9 billion usage in the Fed's discount window, $11.9 billion in the Fed's new BTFP facility & a final $142.8bn to guarantee all deposits at SVB and Signature Bank. With a rally in risk asset's, many viewed this as the return of QE, similar to the 2019 repo crisis. In this...2023-03-1944 min
The Macro Trading FloorPanic In The Banking SystemOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas walk through the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. On a historic week where we saw the collapse of the largest bank since 2008, we walk through the dynamics throughout 2020 - 2023 that caused SVB to fail, what risks lie ahead and if we should expect spillovers into the broader banking system. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To...2023-03-1243 min
The Macro Trading FloorIt's Lonely On Disinflation IslandOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the data points suggesting a possible resurgence of inflation in both the U.S and Europe. As the yield curve continues to reprice higher, how does this impact the higher for longer thesis in rates? Alf and Andreas then share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://public.com/macrotradingfloor *26-week T-bill rate...2023-03-0534 min
The Macro Trading FloorThere's No Bull Case For Risk AssetsOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas walk through the biggest stories of the week and discuss everyone's most asked question right now, hard landing, soft landing or no landing? As the U.S housing market drops the most since 2008, will the economy be able to handle higher rates for a sustained period of time? Alfonso & Andreas then walk through the best risk and reward trades in markets right now. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https...2023-02-2637 min
The Macro Trading FloorWhy Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas reflect on the first six weeks of 2023. As most investors anticipated recessionary pressures in H1, and for markets to head lower, so far "animal spirits" persist, economic data remains strong and markets refuse to budge. Finally, Alf & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market...2023-02-1939 min
The Macro Trading FloorRecession, Soft Landing or Higher For Longer? | Kevin FlanaganOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome Kevin Flanagan Head of Fixed Income Strategy at WisdomTree for a discussion on everything happening in global bond markets. Since 2022, the consensus has flip flopped from recession, to soft landing as markets have rallied, the labor market has remained strong, credit has been fairly contained and signs of financial stress dwindle. Kevin, Alfonso and Andreas walk through the scenarios in 2023 of recession, soft landing or higher for longer? Finally, Kevin shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Kevin: https...2023-02-1257 min
The Macro Trading FloorAnimal Spirits Are Back For MarketsOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas take a look into another busy week in central banking with the Fed, ECB & BoE all announcing further rate hikes on their tightening cycles. Markets have rallied through January with the S&P 500 returning roughly 8% so far in 2023. With the most speculative risk asset's rallying the most, it seems that "animal spirits" are back for investors. Alfonso & Andreas walk through the liquidity backdrop before sharing their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com...2023-02-0532 min
The Macro Trading FloorIs The Recession Already Over?On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso interpret the latest macroeconomic data and prepare for a week of important central bank meetings. They wonder whether the recent bullish movements in nearly every risk asset is a sign that quantitative easing (QE) is back on a global scale (the answer is a firm “no”). After discussing commodity prices, Andreas and Alfonso explore whether a very unusual kind of recession occurred in 2022 that is already over. Lastly, they share their actionable trade ideas. Filmed on January 26th, 2023. -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com...2023-01-2932 min
The Macro Trading FloorAre Markets Really Priced For A Recession? | John NormandOn today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome John Normand Cross-Asset Strategist, JPM alum for a global macro tour of the world. John walks through the most anticipated recession in history by looking at the current market pricing in FX, rates and credit. Has the forecasted slowdown in 2023 really started to rear its head under the headlines in financial media? John then goes on to discuss the Chinese reopening and what implications the second largest economy coming back online will have for the rest of the global economy as inflation continues on it's current downtrend. Finally...2023-01-2255 min
The Macro Trading FloorMacro Is Back With A Vengeance | Steve DrobnyOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Steve Drobny Founder and CEO at Clocktower Group for an inside look into the hedge fund industry. With the past two years spurring the return of macro volatility, many macro hedge funds have arisen, posting high returns in the timeframe. Steve, with his extensive connections in the hedge fund industry, walks through the past two years of higher inflation and how this changed the investing landscape compared to the 12 years prior. He then goes on to discuss what the coming decade could look like. Have we entered a...2023-01-1548 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Chinese Reopening: Bullish Or Bearish Oil? | Nitesh ShahOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nitesh Shah Head of Commodity and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree for a discussion on the China reopening, how it will effect commodity markets and it's impact on broader markets. Energy was the strongest performing sector in 2022, but should we expect the same in 2023? Nitesh walks through the commodity supercycle thesis, as it conflicts with a business cycle downturn in 2023 and what this could mean for commodities, specifically oil, heading into 2023 and beyond. Finally, Nitesh shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in...2023-01-0856 min
The Macro Trading FloorA 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno LarsenOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the liquidity cycle is telling us and finally, Andreas and Alfonso share their actionable trade ideas. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https...2023-01-0147 min
The Macro Trading FloorInflation Will Fall off A Cliff In 2023 | Warren PiesOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond...2022-12-2557 min
The Macro Trading FloorFelix Zulauf: The Fed Is Making A Policy ErrorOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting for a discussion on the changing macro landscape and the policy error the Fed is making. Taking us on a global macro tour of the world, Felix argues that the past few decades of globalization could now be in reverse, and most investors are not well positioned for that transition. We then go on to discuss the trends in inflation, wether we will enter a recession in 2023 and finally Felix's actionable trade idea. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune...2022-12-191h 04
The Macro Trading FloorJurrien Timmer: The Trade For A 2023 RecessionOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jurrien: https...2022-12-1155 min
The Macro Trading FloorHow To Trade The Chinese Turbulence | Alex CampbellWe apologise for any minor audio issues you may experience on today's episode. -- On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Alex Campbell, the Founder of Rose AI, to the show for a discussion on the current situation in China. As inflation, de-globalization, and tight commodity markets continue to impact markets, Alex provides insights on the best ways to protect yourself in today's environment. Drawing on his extensive experience as the Head of Commodities at Bridgewater Associates, Alex delves into the structural underinvestment in the sector, how geopolitics have shaped the markets in 2022, and the...2022-12-0457 min
The Macro Trading FloorThomas Thornton: This Bear Market Isn't Over YetOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry joins the show to discuss the equity bear market in 2022. Tommy walks through what has happened in 2022, and what to expect in 2023 as investors face uncertainty if the recent rally is a bear market rally, or a bottom. Tommy goes on to discuss the energy trade and where the best risk/reward is in markets right now. Finally, Tommy shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Tommy: https://twitter.com/TommyThornton Follow Andrea...2022-11-2753 min
The Macro Trading FloorJacob Shapiro: From Globalization To A Multipolar WorldOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitics at Cognitive Investments for a discussion on the global trend to a multipolar world. In 2022, geopolitics has been one of the leading factors in markets, so we invited an expert in geopolitics to help us navigate this environment. Expecting a shift away from globalization and a more multipolar world over the next decade, this trend has many implications for economies around the world. Jacob walks through the U.S/China relations, Europe's energy crisis and discusses which countries are best positioned in this e...2022-11-2059 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Real Stress Is Not In The US, But Elsewhere | Brent DonnellyOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Brent Donnelly President of Spectra Markets for a discussion on the economic weakness around the world. With market participants focusing on the U.S as Powell continues to fight inflation, Brent reminds us that the real stress is not in the U.S, but elsewhere. Looking to Canada, Brent walks through the fragility he sees in the Canadian economy, and discusses vulnerability in the housing market as mortgages reprice with higher interest rates. Finally, Brent shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune i...2022-11-1355 min
The Macro Trading FloorDebt, Demographics & Deflation Ahead | Raoul PalOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Raoul Pal CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision & Global Macro Investor to the show for a discussion on debt, demographics and deflationary pressures. Raoul discusses some of the structural deflationary forces that lie ahead for markets. How will these forces effect markets as the Fed, and central banks globally, progress through their fastest tightening cycle in recent history. How are rising rates & high inflation changing asset allocation in this period? Finally, Raoul shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is spo...2022-11-0659 min
The Macro Trading FloorNatural Gas Prices Plunge, But For How Long?On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance to discuss big tech earnings, preparing for a recession in Europe and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices in Europe plunged due to a mild start to winter throughout October, European next hour Dutch TTF actually briefly turned negative. Andreas & Jack walk through the dynamics sending prices lower and discuss if Europe is through the worst? Finally, Andreas shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank o...2022-10-3043 min
The Macro Trading FloorIs There A Bull Case For Markets? | Michael GayedOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Michael Gayed of Toroso Investments and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report to the show for a discussion on if their is a bull case for markets. Michael discusses the poor performance of bonds throughout the year as they failed to hedge equity drawdowns. What does this mean for the traditional 60/40? And how does the YTD performance compare with periods throughout history? Finally, Michael shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers...2022-10-2355 min
The Macro Trading FloorBonds Will Perform Better Than Stocks, Here’s Why | Mikael SarweOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volatility to remain high, but that nonetheless he expects longer-duration bonds to significantly outperform equities over the coming six to nine months. To hear Mikael’s actionable trade idea, you’ll have to tune in! This episo...2022-10-1650 min
The Macro Trading FloorJohn Porter: Here Is How The Next 6 Months Will LookOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso welcomes John Porter Principal of Mercator Financial Advisors to the show. With a background spanning from CIO at the World Bank, Managing Director at Barclays, working in several hedge funds and so much more, John Porter was the perfect guest to invite to the show. John shares his thoughts on how he is viewing markets in 2022, and what the next six months could have in store. John goes on to discuss how he is viewing the path for inflation, the bond market and finally shares his actionable trade idea, but to hea...2022-10-0955 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Good, The Bad & The Safe HavenOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in FX markets. Just how are indicators such as inflation, energy & interest rates effecting currencies around the world? Finally, Andreas and Alfonso highlight the good, bad & safe haven currencies with an actionable trade idea, but to hea...2022-10-0249 min
The Macro Trading FloorInvestors Are "Totally Unprepared", And This Is Why | Bob ElliottOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges such as gold perform in inflationary periods? Finally, Bob shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across...2022-09-2554 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Oil Bull Market Is NOT Over | Andrew SimonOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, particularly oil & natural gas, Andrew makes the case for why politicians around the world are actually contributing to the higher prices. Finally, Andrew shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll...2022-09-181h 02
The Macro Trading FloorDon't Bet Against The Swiss National Bank | Vincent DeluardOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vincent shares the bull case for a certain sector of the European economy by outlining his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unpara...2022-09-1154 min
The Macro Trading FloorBen Melkman: Expecting A U.S Dollar DeclineOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers...2022-09-0457 min
The Macro Trading FloorThis Is What The Fed Will Do | David WooOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, David shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- “This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto a...2022-08-2856 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Disinflationary Trend Is Over | Whitney BakerOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Whitney Baker CEO of Totem Macro to the show. With a background at some of the largest funds in the world, including Bridgewater, Whitney provides an expert view into the secular shift happening in markets today. Arguing that liquidity & globalization were two of the most important trends of the past 20 years, what will a secular reversal in both mean for markets going forward? To find out & hear Whitneys actionable trade idea, you'll just have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers...2022-08-2155 min
The Macro Trading FloorAre You Paying Attention to Emerging Markets? | Nick StadtmillerOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nick Stadtmiller Director of Emerging Markets Strategy at Medley Advisors. With an expertise in emerging markets, Nick joins the show for a discussion on the macro forces driving EM's. From global inflation rates to the rising U.S Dollar's effect on EM currencies, Nick provides a region by region walkthrough of all the strongest and weakest emerging market's you can't afford to not pay attention too. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo...2022-08-1456 min
The Macro Trading FloorThe Fed Will Break Inflation's Back, No Matter What | Teddy ValleeOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Teddy Vallee, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Pervalle Global. After positioning to be short everything in the first half of 2022, Teddy now sees an environment where inflation will begin to roll over. With typical growth indicators slowing down such as commodities, Teddy sees an attractive risk/reward in the bond market. Teddy then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro...2022-08-0753 min
The Macro Trading FloorShorting The Nasdaq With Butterfly Spreads | Dean CurnuttDean is looking at shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) by using a "butterfly" spread. He wants to fade a Fed pivot (he wants to bet against the consensus that the Fed will reverse course and loosen policy) by shorting duration-sensitive equities such as those in the Nasdaq. -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Dean: https://twitter.com/A...2022-07-311h 03
The Macro Trading FloorDiego Parrilla: China Is Running Out Of OptionsOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome best selling author and investment manager at Quadriga Asset Management Diego Parrilla to the show for a discussion on China. Diego makes the point that China's growth over the past 20 years is no longer sustainable as they battle high debt levels, demographic collapse & now social upheaval as citizens boycott mortgage payments. Diego goes on to discuss recent FX moves in USD, CNY & HKD before centering his actionable trade idea around a single currency pair, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit...2022-07-241h 00
The Macro Trading FloorMarko Papic: Game Over For The Oil BullsOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Marko Papic Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. With such a massive bull run in energy, particularly Oil since the March 2020 lows, is the bull run sustainable? With a geopolitical premium priced into energy markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are oil and gas markets set to take another leg higher, or retrace 2021 & 2022 gains like the past couple of months? Marko walks through all of the factors at play and also shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Fol...2022-07-1752 min
The Macro Trading FloorA Trade For The U.S Dollar's Reversal | Julian BrigdenOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline. Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new re...2022-07-101h 01
The Macro Trading FloorRussell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher InflationOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley, Host of the "Forward Guidance" Podcast as Alfonso is away on holiday. They discuss the top stories of the week including the recent sell-off in commodities, policy errors by the ECB and a recent interview with Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey & Christine Lagarde. Andreas then welcomes Russell Clark, Former hedge fund manager of Russell Clark Investment Management for a discussion on the most important factor in markets right now, inflation. Expecting to see a switch from capital back to labor, structurally higher bond yields, higher inflation and el...2022-07-0357 min
The Macro Trading FloorTwo Trades To Navigate This Regime ShiftOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week before offering up their very own trade idea for manoeuvring this environment. With all eyes on the Bank of Japan as they fiercely defend their yield curve control, many investors are worried about something breaking in Japan. Alfonso highlights that "the only entity that can break something in Japan, is Japan itself". Just how will Kuroda and the BoJ be forced react to a weakening Yen, surging yields and increasing pressure from the bond vigilantes. To find out, you'll just have to tun...2022-06-2648 min
The Macro Trading FloorFrances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge WarningOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Frances Donald Global Chief Economist & Strategist at Manulife Investment Management. Walking through the most important macro factor right now, inflation, Frances shares how every central bankers worst nightmare is manifesting itself in markets. Sharing her outlook on inflation and the bond market, Frances sees a scenario where the flattening yield curve will lead to another inversion across 2's 10's & 5's 30's. Could a new regime of secular stagflation be upon us? Frances then shares her actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Fo...2022-06-1957 min
The Macro Trading FloorWe Are Headed For A Deep Recession | Jesse FelderOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report. Felder argues that a strong dollar, severe interest rate spikes, and surging commodity prices indicate that a deep earnings recession is on the horizon. Felder explains why he thinks a Fed pivot is likely and fleshes out his macro thesis on stocks, bonds, and precious metals. For details of Jesse’s actionable trade idea, you will have to listen in! -- Follow Jesse: https://twitter.com/jessefelder Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockwor...2022-06-1253 min
The Macro Trading FloorNick Givanovic: This is How You Kill InflationOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Nick Givanovic. Nick provides a wealth of knowledge having spent over 40 year in the investment industry. From 1983 - 1993, Nick ran the largest bond book in the world, and has worked at some of the largest firms in the world including JP Morgan and Salomon. Nick joins the show to focus on the elephant in the room, inflation. Quoting Milton Friedman: "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon", Nick provides a deep dive into why he believes inflation could remain persistent in this environment. He goes o...2022-06-0558 min
The Macro Trading FloorDarius Dale: The Most Hated 20% Rally Ahead of UsOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. After correctly forecasting a slowdown in economic growth, an end to the reflation trade & pricing in a bear market throughout 2022, Darius joins Alf and Andreas to share his macro thesis for the second half of the year. Is the market beginning to price in an earnings recession? Are investors signalling a rotation into bonds after one of the worst start to the year since 1788? Darius provides a masterclass in the macro fundamentals driving markets before sharing his actionable trade idea...2022-05-291h 01
The Macro Trading FloorDario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in EquitiesOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard. Drawing parallels between today and the 1970's, Dario walks us through his macro framework as global economies face inflation, recession & structural demographic issues. As China experiences continued lockdowns, Europe struggles with it's worst cost of living crisis since the 1940's and the U.S undertakes its rapid tightening of financial conditions, Dario predicts a very ugly outlook over the next 3-6 months. How will this macro environment influence Dario's actionable trade idea, to hear that, you'll have t...2022-05-2251 min
The Macro Trading FloorThis Will Blow Up, And This Will Be Your Safe HavenOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by a very special guest to discuss the top stories of the week. After a week in markets few will forget, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the dilemma central banks around the world face as they embark on tightening financial conditions in the face of soaring inflation. After our guest walks us through their macro framework, they share their actionable trade idea. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Su...2022-05-151h 02
The Macro Trading FloorSaxo Bank CIO: Gold to $2500 | Steen JakobsenOn today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen. With 30+ years investing through some of the most volatile periods in market history, Steen compares previous market cycles to today's stating, "November last year was the single biggest event in my life". As the Fed begins its most aggressive market tightening cycle in recent history, Steen expects a paradigm shift in investor preference towards commodities over financial assets. After walking us through his macro framework, Steen shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll...2022-05-0851 min
The Macro Trading FloorMike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking MarketsOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike shares his outlook for early signs of risks emerging in the economy and how those risks could impact markets throughout 2022. Drawing comparisons between the 2022 tech sell-off and the 2000 dot-com crash, Mike explains how the Fed is going to break markets. After walking us through his macro framework, Mike shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/profpl...2022-05-011h 09
The Macro Trading FloorLyn Alden: A Pendulum Between Stagflation & ReflationOn today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Walking Alfonso and Andreas through her macro framework, Lyn explains the past two years of unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. Drawing on the 1940s as an indicator, she correctly predicted the high inflation rates we’re currently seeing far ahead of most. Expecting a pendulum-style shift between reflation and stagflation, Lyn shares her actionable investment idea while giving a clear outlook for today’s macro landscape — you can't afford to miss this episode! -- Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com...2022-04-2453 min
The Macro Trading FloorJim Leitner: A Trade for the Commodity SupercycleWe are proud to present a brand new podcast launching on the Blockworks channel The Macro Trading Floor. Every week one of the best worldwide global macro investors will join Andreas Steno Larsen & Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss the economy, markets & provide an actionable trade idea. To kick off this exciting new series, Andreas & Alfonso are joined by Jim Leitner a market veteran who traded his way up on Wall Street, recording Billions in profits during the process. Now running his family office Falcon Management, Jim walks through some of the greatest opportunities in markets today from commodities to FX trades...2022-04-1754 min
The Macro Trading FloorIntroducing: The Macro Trading FloorIntroducing The Macro Trading Floor, hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Andreas Steno Larsen, a unique financial markets podcast hosted by two young European macro stars that not only delivers insightful macro content, but also actionable investment ideas to investors across the world.2022-04-0801 min