Shows
Geopolitical CousinsThe Illusion of DecouplingGlobal trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to func...
2025-10-151h 19
The Jacob Shapiro PodcastLeverage on Leverage on LeverageGold prices are soaring, private equity is unraveling, and data centers have become the next speculative frontier. Beneath all of it lies a simple question: what happens when faith in liquidity, stability, and infinite growth begins to fray? From central banks hoarding bullion to insurers gambling on AI infrastructure, the same story unfolds—risk disguised as resilience. And somewhere between coffee tariffs and capital flows, you can glimpse the new shape of a global economy learning to live without certainty.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:03) - Catch-Up and Current Events(02:09...
2025-10-101h 00Geopolitical CousinsThe New Cold PeaceWhat happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations(02:28...
2025-10-081h 41The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Government Is Coming For Your [insert asset here]What if money could make you freer instead of more dependent? Matt McClintock joins the pod to dive into Bitcoin’s evolution from digital experiment to geopolitical force - a technology challenging governments, redefining sovereignty, and reshaping how value moves across the world. Matt and Jacob explore what “freedom money” really means, why personal sovereignty now collides with state power, and how the struggle between fiat and crypto reveals the future of economics, trust, and control in a multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:20) - Addressing Listener Concerns...
2025-10-071h 01The Jacob Shapiro PodcastTechno-Feudal EstatesJacob Shapiro is joined by Matt Pines, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the accelerating convergence of Bitcoin, AI, geopolitics, and energy. Pines argues that technological change is happening faster than existing frameworks can manage, pushing once-fringe ideas into mainstream policy debates. They explore how AI and Bitcoin are straining U.S. infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, and what this means for national security and economic stability. The discussion also considers the rise of “techno-feudal” elites, political backlash risks, and whether America can maintain an edge against China’s state-driven infrastructure build-out. Pines closes with reflections on Bit...
2025-09-301h 03The Jacob Shapiro PodcastAlone in the Insane AsylumJacob Shapiro reconnects with Chase Taylor (of Pinecone Macro) for a wide-ranging conversation on U.S. competitiveness. The two dig into why electricity costs, labor shortages, and weak industrial policy matter far more than endless chatter about tariffs or rate cuts. They trade scenarios on how soaring power demand, grid fragility, and demographic decline could shape America’s future against China. Along the way, they touch on robots, nearshoring to Mexico, farm policy, and why simple, obvious analysis is often the most powerful--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:43) - Contrarian Views on US...
2025-09-241h 06Geopolitical Cousins17 Seconds or LessMarko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.--Timestamps:(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine(05:06...
2025-09-231h 24The Jacob Shapiro PodcastYouth Against GovernmentJacob steps away from his usual roster of experts to bring listeners a first-person account from Kathmandu. Law student and human rights scholar Prasansha Rimal reflects on Nepal’s fragile democracy, its youth-led protests, and the deeper frustration with corruption and stagnant politics. She describes how social media both sparked dissent and revealed inequality, while broader grievances fueled unrest. Jacob underscores the courage of her testimony, noting that her perspective adds invaluable, if subjective, insight into Nepal’s ongoing political transformation--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(03:21) - Introducing Prasansha Rima...
2025-09-2246 minThe Jacob Shapiro Podcast“Bitcoin is a Miracle”Jacob and Rob reunite after a long break, tracing the threads between a dizzying run of global events and markets that seem strangely calm. Jacob frames the conversation with parallels to the 1920s, questioning whether today’s mix of political volatility, speculative fervor, and rapid technological change echoes past cycles of boom and fracture. Alongside Rob’s market perspective, he explores AI’s slowdown, labor shortages, and the looming electricity crunch, before pulling the discussion toward deeper questions of resilience, innovation, and Bitcoin’s place in geopolitics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome(00...
2025-09-191h 13Geopolitical CousinsElon and OrwellPokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering...
2025-09-161h 34The Jacob Shapiro PodcastDeterrence by PunishmentJacob Shapiro sits down with Jacek Bartosiak, founder of Strategy&Future, to discuss Russia’s drone incursions into Polish airspace and their broader implications. From Warsaw’s perspective, deterrence has failed, pushing debate toward a “politics of punishment.” Bartosiak outlines the fracturing of NATO credibility, the rise of an Intermarium bloc from the Baltics to Turkey, and Ukraine’s surprising military innovations. Together, they explore how Poland, Ukraine, and regional allies may reshape Europe’s security landscape amid U.S. retreat.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:22) - Current Geopolitical Tensions in...
2025-09-1555 minGeopolitical CousinsPolitical Violence And TheaterJacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk
2025-09-111h 17The Jacob Shapiro PodcastSoft Dictatorship, Big TariffsAfter a month-long hiatus recovering from illness, Jacob Shapiro returns to the podcast joined by recurring guest Elohim Monard. Together, they examine the transactional nature of U.S.–Latin America relations, debating whether the region is part of a declining American empire and how leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula navigate Washington’s shifting policies. Their discussion ranges from Brazil’s geopolitical role to Venezuela’s fragility, highlighting the Latin Americanization of U.S. politics and the uncertain trajectory of American power--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro & Personal Update(00:59) - Elohim and Conversa...
2025-09-091h 15Geopolitical CousinsWe're So Back (It's So Over)After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back(00:11) - Ja...
2025-09-041h 25The Jacob Shapiro PodcastPissing in the Public PoolJacob and Rob dig into Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, exposing the political theater surrounding government data. They explore labor hoarding, CPI distortions, and the fragility of public statistical institutions in a polarized, AI-saturated world. The conversation spans historical context, philosophical takes on truth and data, and the coming war for proprietary information. They close with a baffling shift in U.S.-India trade policy—and a call for help understanding what the hell is going on.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:44) - Employment Data(02:42) - Tr...
2025-08-0856 minGeopolitical CousinsWhat The F*ck Is a Framework Trade Agreement???Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.--Timestam...
2025-07-311h 15The Jacob Shapiro PodcastFiscal Reality and Financial RepressionJacob Shapiro sits down with Luke Gromen for a wide-ranging discussion about AI’s disruption, the U.S. fiscal outlook, and global power dynamics. Jacob noted that AI is rapidly commoditizing data and could upend white-collar industries, but he and Luke agreed that intuition and discerning quality data points remain critical. They dug into Europe’s strategic weaknesses, the U.S.-China rivalry, and vulnerabilities in supply chains like rare earths. On the U.S. fiscal front, Luke argued that the government must financially repress bondholders, with stablecoins potentially becoming a tool for yield curve control. They closed with a lo...
2025-07-291h 02Geopolitical CousinsPutin’s Out of Time, Not TroopsJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18...
2025-07-2154 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe White Nationalist Social DemocracyJacob interviews Dr. Van Jackson, an international relations scholar specializing in East Asian and Pacific security. They discuss the accelerating pace and volatility of U.S. foreign policy, characterizing Trump-era actions as part of a broader counter-revolutionary, oligarchic project. Van critiques both major U.S. parties and highlights the risk of diversionary wars as legitimacy crises grow. They explore the geopolitics of Iran, Israel, and China, and conclude with insights on North Korea and potential U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea, outlining a rare “win-win-win” scenario for all parties on the Korean Peninsula.--Time...
2025-07-181h 09The Jacob Shapiro PodcastOur Post-Neoliberal Moment (w/ Mike Konczal)Jacob welcomes economic policy expert Mike Konczal for a wide-ranging conversation on American capitalism, industrial policy, and the evolving role of the state. They explore how the Biden administration’s economic agenda challenges decades of neoliberal orthodoxy, discuss the implications of increased public investment, and examine what it means to have a “pro-worker” economy. Konczal brings deep insight into the politics and pragmatics of economic reform, offering a nuanced look at the shifting landscape of U.S. economic policymaking.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:17) - Disclaimer and Encouragement to Listen...
2025-07-1152 minGeopolitical CousinsRealpolitik with Range (Trade Value Leaders Index P2)Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, w...
2025-07-102h 06The Jacob Shapiro PodcastOur Currency, Your ProblemJacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:13) - Discussion on Int...
2025-07-041h 09Geopolitical CousinsThe Trade Value Leader IndexJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro...
2025-07-031h 26The Jacob Shapiro PodcastUnpacking the U.S.-Pakistan Reset (with Fahd Humayun)Jacob Shapiro speaks with Fahd Humayun about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Middle East. They discuss Pakistan’s perspective on the Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-Pakistan relations under a potential second Trump term, and the strategic implications of Pakistan’s recent military and diplomatic moves. The conversation also explores India-Pakistan tensions, the lowering threshold for military escalation, the role of China in regional alliances, and the internal political challenges facing Pakistan. Humayun emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, stability, and cautious optimism about Pakistan’s political and democratic future.--Timestamps:...
2025-06-3054 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Largest Standing Army In EuropeJacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(04:51) - Markets!(16:04) - Japan's Economic...
2025-06-2749 minGeopolitical CousinsPostmortem on the Iran-Israel WarJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Postmortem on t...
2025-06-2657 minGeopolitical CousinsAmerica Strikes IranJacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes(01:14) - US-I...
2025-06-221h 24The Jacob Shapiro PodcastLatin America's Moment in Global ChaosJacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin Am...
2025-06-2047 minGeopolitical CousinsTo Bomb or Not To BombJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.--Timestam...
2025-06-191h 42The Jacob Shapiro PodcastTariffs, Trust, and TokyoIn this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minist...
2025-06-1848 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastIsrael Strikes Iran P2: Analyst Kamran BokhariJacob Shapiro is joined by Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari to analyze the rapidly unfolding Israeli military strikes on Iran. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel’s targeted attacks on IRGC leadership, the potential for regime instability in Tehran, and the calculus behind Washington’s response. Bokhari introduces the concept of “evolutionary regime change” and outlines scenarios ranging from internal coups to regional realignment. Together, they explore whether Israel’s aim is nuclear deterrence or regime collapse, and what options remain for an Iranian response. It’s a fast-moving, high-stakes conversation on Middle Eastern geopolitics.--Timesta...
2025-06-1333 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastIsrael Strikes Iran P1: Security Expert Hamidreza AziziJacob Shapiro speaks with Iranian security expert Hamidreza Azizi to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran. They explore the strategic implications of Israel’s multi-phase assault, including the assassination of top IRGC commanders, the targeting of nuclear and missile infrastructure, and the collapse of Iran’s proxy network. Azizi outlines Iran’s limited options—from potential retaliation to a pivot toward nuclear armament—and discusses the psychological warfare at play. With U.S. involvement uncertain and regional dynamics shifting, this conversation offers a critical framework for understanding one of the most volatile escalations in the Middle East in recent memor...
2025-06-1329 minGeopolitical CousinsIsrael Strikes IranJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.--Tim...
2025-06-131h 02Geopolitical CousinsManufactured ChaosMarko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-dri...
2025-06-111h 33The Jacob Shapiro PodcastStablecoins and the Geopolitics of TrustJacob and Rob respond to listener feedback about negativity by focusing on positive trends, including declining violent crime and drug overdose rates in the U.S. They then dive into a high-level exploration of stablecoins—what they are, why they matter, and the potential risks and geopolitical implications of their rise. They compare the U.S. approach to stablecoins with the digital currency strategies of China and the EU, unpack the difference between innovation and systemic risk, and ask whether the erosion of trust in financial systems is worth the trade-off. A thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation on money, power, and vo...
2025-06-091h 16The Jacob Shapiro PodcastUkrainian Drone Attack and the Future of WarJacob welcomes Sim Tack, a military analyst at Force Analysis, to break down the shifting battlefield dynamics in Ukraine. Together, they unpack Ukraine’s evolving tactics, Russia’s slow but grinding advances, and the logistical and manpower challenges both sides face. Jacob pushes for a bigger picture: what this phase of the war tells us about the future of U.S. involvement, Europe’s strategic posture, and why the world should be watching Eastern Ukraine more closely. Sim offers clarity without sensationalism, grounding the conversation in facts, maps, and on-the-ground realities. It's a sobering, sharp look at a war still...
2025-06-0653 minGeopolitical CousinsThe New Age of Making Stuff (or Pretending To) Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things som...
2025-06-061h 46The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Juice Is Already Killing UsJacob and Rob dive into the shifting mood in U.S. markets, as post-"Liberation Day" volatility gives way to a more constrained and uncertain fiscal landscape. They unpack the massive implications of the Trump administration’s budget bill, surging yields, and declining investor confidence. The conversation then pivots to Chinese biotech, where Jacob raises the alarm about America’s declining edge in R&D, regulation, and talent retention. What follows is a sobering look at cultural skepticism, institutional decay, and whether the U.S. still believes in scientific progress. It’s glum, sharp, and deeply thoughtful. They promise to be...
2025-05-231h 05The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Most Terrifying Insect You’ve Never Heard OfMadison Darbyshire makes her first appearance on the podcast to discuss the screwworm – what it is, why it’s threatening U.S. ranchers again, and why all of this could have been prevented. Come for awareness of an emergent problem; stay for the geopolitical explanation for why Texas is the ancestral home of the American cowboy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(02:46) - Understanding Screwworms(04:35) - History of Screwworm Eradication(09:07) - Challenges and Costs of Eradication(18:27) - Screwworm's Return and Current Issues(23:20) - Geopolitical and Envi...
2025-05-1656 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Froth of GriftIn this episode, Jacob Shapiro sits down with Matt Pines, who somehow manages to be both a national security thinker and a Bitcoin whisperer, to talk through the Trump administration’s pivot toward crypto, why Bitcoin has suddenly gone strategic, and what it tells us about where the global economy might be headed. They dig into the politics, the policy confusion, and the deeper structural shifts behind the headlines. From U.S.-China competition to financial fragmentation, Matt breaks it down without hype - and helps us try to make sense of how a meme coin presidency ended up bu...
2025-05-121h 07The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Reverse Currency Crisis That Isn’tThis week, Jacob’s caffeinated and Rob is just trying to keep us on track as the duo dive into the so-called “Asian reverse currency crisis,” a spike in Asian FX that’s less a crisis and more the result of twenty-five years of carry trades finally snapping. We break down what it means for the dollar, for diversification, and for the poor bastards running Taiwanese insurance portfolios. Then: Trump wants tariffs on foreign movies (seriously), Saudi Arabia starts pumping oil like it’s 2019, and we finish with why empty shelves might be the most underpriced risk in markets right now...
2025-05-091h 07The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Indus Waters Are Getting HotKamran Bokhari answers the bat signal to join Jacob Shapiro for a wide-ranging conversation on the spike in India-Pakistan tensions following the Kashmir attack - and why it’s not just business as usual. They unpack the strategic logic (or lack thereof) behind Pakistan’s moves, India’s dilemma over deterrence, and the escalating risk of regional miscalculation. They also dig into the broader Middle East: Iran’s negotiations, Houthi missiles, and whether the U.S. is quietly brokering a regional reset. Kamran sees threads tying it all together; We're still trying to figure out if that’s optimism or a warni...
2025-05-0752 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastLatinos for Trump (But Make It Complicated)Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/ --In this episode, Jacob sits down with Elohim Monard for a sharp, layered conversation about Hispanic support for Trump, the politics of deportation, and how authoritarianism creeps in under the banner of law and order. They talk about prisons as geopolitical tools, from El Salvador’s extreme model to France’s cocaine-fueled chaos, and whether Trump’s policies are building a regime of fear among immigrants and international students. Elohim brings the receipts, the nuance, and the global view. They also get into AI, startup governmen...
2025-05-0258 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Pahalgam Terrorist AttackJacob Shapiro is joined by Akshar Patel from The Emissary to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between India and Pakistan after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. They cover what happened, why this attack is different, and why India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is such a big geopolitical shift. Akshar breaks down Pakistan’s internal fractures, India’s military limitations, and how water is becoming a pressure point in South Asia. This isn’t just saber-rattling... it’s a slow burn with existential stakes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:21) - Current...
2025-04-3058 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastGo Where The Fiscal IsChase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump’s tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China’s fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA pl...
2025-04-2856 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Economy Has COVIDIn this wide-ranging episode, Jacob and Rob check in on markets, discuss the issue of Federal Reserve independence, and somehow end up talking about the future of the Catholic Church. We are large – we contain multitudes!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(02:55) - Market Trends and Economic Indicators(04:15) - Freight Data and Economic Concerns(07:42) - Historical Context: Market Reactions(16:44) - The Fed's Role and Independence(26:40) - Trump's Economic Approval Ratings(27:29) - Debating Economic vs Cultural Factors(29:45) - Hypothetical Scenarios for Jerome Po...
2025-04-2551 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastSeparating Signal From Noise (with Rob!)American Airlines can’t keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capi...
2025-04-1153 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastBlessing by BlowtorchVance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics(11:45) – Biofuels(14:32) – Debt/land prices(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves(30:42) – Will USDA have po...
2025-04-071h 02The Jacob Shapiro PodcastRiding on the Hog of a Fiscal OrgyJacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios(13:15) - US Fiscal Po...
2025-04-041h 44The Jacob Shapiro Podcast🇺🇸 Liberation Day 🇺🇸We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. To buy products for higher prices than we could have bought them. And should we win the day, the Second of April will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the United States declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! We are going to conquer Greenland! Today, we celebrate our Liberation Day!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction
2025-04-0257 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastAt the Frontline of the South China Sea and DemocracyJacob welcomes Georgi Engelbrecht on to the podcast for the first time to discuss the importance of the Philippines, why it matters, its relationship with China, and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry that is reverberating throughout the democratic world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(02:22) - Life and Work in the Philippines(04:27) - Geopolitical Importance of the Philippines(05:49) - Historical and Cultural Context of the Philippines(08:56) - Philippines-China Relations and South China Sea Disputes(20:10) - Duterte's Foreign Policy and Its Impact(28:12...
2025-03-3153 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastBeware the Profit Recession and India’s Stock BubbleJacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) – Profit recession(13:10) – Copper(16:32) – The direction of the USD
2025-03-2840 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastWill Trump Go to War with Iran?Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran(31:00) - Turkey(46:00) – Indonesia(58:00) – China(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft
2025-03-241h 57The Jacob Shapiro PodcastMessing Around and Finding OutNEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listenYou can also just look up "Geopolitical Cousins" and it'll come up. We're the only ones. This is it. Welcome to the goat rodeo! The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Approach and Precepts(11:40) – Ne...
2025-03-141h 09The Jacob Shapiro PodcastPulling the Wrong LeversTrump’s tariff policy is all over the place - Ton, off, then back on again. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and Jacob' sister is even texting him about stocks. China? Barely flinching. Europe? Actually getting its act together, with Germany and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, Turkey’s making moves, the Kurds are recalibrating, and Iran’s back in the mix. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) - Sister Index(05:40) - Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Policies(08:46) - Trump Administration's Policy Analysis(14:38) - Lumber Test Case...
2025-03-121h 06The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Thing about TariffsJacob Shapiro and Cornell Assistant Professor Wendong Zhang discuss tariffs from an objective perspective: Who will they impact? How much? How does that change based on different scenarios? If you are looking to be convinced of whether tariffs are good policy or not, seek another podcast; if what you desire is objective analysis about the potential impact of tariffs both good and bad, you have come to the right place.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:33) - Tariffs and Trade Wars(07:54) - Impact of Tariffs on Various Economies(18:33...
2025-03-0746 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastDid the US Just Abandon Ukraine?In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics. Watch the full clip of the meeting below->Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc--
2025-03-021h 02The Jacob Shapiro PodcastMr. Market Is Not HappyThough operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market(12:11) – International Market Over-performance(13:11) – Germany and the Future (22:03) - ...What about the European Union?(23:03) - The EU and India(26:21) - China...
2025-02-2834 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastTrade Wars are Metal WarsJacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China’s announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro (05:25) – Government priorities(11:12) – China and critical minerals(21:32) – Economics of mineral refining(31:27)– Social license to operate...
2025-02-2557 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastPerceived ConcessionsRob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) – Gravity of the moment(12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?(19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea(33:00) – Germany(40:25) – China(50:38) – Iran and the Middle Eas...
2025-02-211h 00The Jacob Shapiro PodcastStop Waiting To Live a Good LifeJacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how...
2025-02-181h 31The Jacob Shapiro PodcastUSAID's Demise: What It Means for Global Power and U.S. InfluenceA candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity. Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (02:32) - The Origins and Controversies of USAID(05:39) - The Founding Principles of USAID(11:20) - Altruism by...
2025-02-1454 minThe Jacob Shapiro Podcast#256 - And Now, The WeatherDaryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Snow in the gulf(5:30) – Weak La Nina(11:20) – US Forecast 2025(18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscil...
2025-02-1140 minThe Jacob Shapiro Podcast#255 - Strategic Ketchup Reserve--Timestamps:(00:07) - Intro(00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet(17:18) - Bitcoin(25:00) - Debt(32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China(41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks(53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited b...
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