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Increments
Increments#96 (Bonus) - On the Limits of IntrospectionHappy Christmas and Merry Festivus y'all! Today we're releasing a patreon episode, as both of us are away on vacation with the family for the holidays. In this episode we have a meandering discussion about parenting, Robert Kegan's four stages of development, the limits of introspection, and relationship counseling. We discuss Advice for new fathers Vaden comes out to the world (about snowboarding) Robert Kegan's four stages of development The limits of introspection Countertransference The show Couples Therapy with Dr. Orna Guralnik # Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server...
2025-12-2241 minIncrements
Increments#95 (C&R Chap 10, Part II) - A Problem-First View of Scientific ProgressAfter a long hiatus where we both saw grief counsellors over our fight about Popper's theory of content in the last C&R episode, we are back. And we're ready to play nice ... for about 30 seconds until Vaden admits that two sentences from Popper changed his mind about something Ben had arguing for literally years. But eventually putting those disagreements aside, we return to the subject at hand: The Conjectures and Refutations Series: Chapter 10: Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Part II). Here all goes smoothly. Just kidding, we start fighting about content again almost...
2025-11-2957 minIncrements
Increments#94 - Is AI Just a Tool? (w/ Scott Aaronson)The time has come for Vaden to defend his faith in the face of cold, hard scientific rationality. Will AI take over the world, automating away everything that makes humans distinct? Or can Vaden defend the church of just-ism, the radical belief that AI is simply "just a tool." Scott Aaronson, professor of computer science at UT Austin, goes to head to head against the zealotry. Check out Scott's website and his blog, Shtetl Optimized. We discuss Scott view's on education. Should we radically reform K-12? Is ChatGPT changing Scott's approach to teaching The...
2025-11-061h 24Increments
Increments#93 (C&R Chap 10, Part I) - An Introduction to Popper's Theory of ContentBack to basics baby. We're doing a couple introductory episodes on Popper's philosophy of science, following Chapter 10 of Conjectures and Refutations. We start with Popper's theory of content: what makes a good scientific theory? Can we judge some theories as better than others before we even run any empirical tests? Should we be looking for theories with high probability? Ben and Vaden also return to their roots in another way, and get into a nice little fight about how content relates to Bayesianism. We discuss Vaden's skin care routine If you find your friend's...
2025-10-161h 47Increments
Increments#92 - Confronting the Paradox of Tolerance: Christianity in the age of Trump (w/ Jonathan Rauch)We're joined by Jonathan Rauch to discuss what it means to be a radical incrementalist, how to foment revolution on geological timescales, and whether Christianity can be a force for good in politics. Can Jon convince angry-Hitchens-atheist Vaden that Christianity has some benefits? Will both Vaden and Ben be at Sunday prayer? Follow Jonathan on his website, at Brookings, at The Atlantic or on Bluesky. We discuss The constitution of knowledge and whether it's holding Norms vs laws, and whether we should introduce more laws to codify norms Popper's paradox of tolerance How should...
2025-09-251h 07Increments
Increments#91 - The Uses and Abuses of Statistics (w/ Ben Recht)Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control. Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision. Check out Ben's blog...
2025-09-041h 16Increments
Increments#90 (Reaction) - Disbelieving AI 2027: Responding to "Why We're Not Ready For Superintelligence"Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW? Listener Note: We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify: - https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod - https...
2025-08-181h 35Increments
Increments#89 (C&R, Chap 6) - Berkeley vs Newton: The Battle Over GravityPhlogiston? Elan Vital? Caloric? Mention of any of these at a party, and Neil DeGrasse Tyson will be sure to take you out back and kick you in your essences. So why do "essences" have no place in science? In this episode we explore that question (and dive into some of the history behind this debate) by reading Chapter 6 of Conjectures and Refutations: A Note On Berkeley As Precursor Of Mach And Einstein. In one corner, we have the estimable Sir Isaac Newton and Roger Coates (and of course Andre the Giant, upon whose shoulders they are...
2025-08-011h 11Increments
Increments#88 (Bonus) - Homer's OdysseyThis week we take a break from our regularly scheduled programming to listen to Ben, Rich, and Cam loutishly pontificate on one of the oldest poems in history. That's right, three fiction noobs take on Homer. Ladies, have you ever wondered what your fella is doing when you're out for the evening? Look no further. The podcast you're listening to is Do You Even Lit? which you can find on any podcast platform and on youtube. The hosts are Richard Meadows, Cam Peters, and some third guy. Back to increments in a couple weeks! In...
2025-07-101h 12Increments
Increments#87 - Gullibility, Belief, and Conformity (with Hugo Mercier)Ben and Vaden test their French skills and have Hugo Mercier on the podcast to discuss who we trust and what we believe. Are humans gullible? Do we fall for propaganda and advertising campaigns? Do we follow expert consensus or forge ahead as independent thinkers? Can Vaden go for one episode without bringing up Trump? Hugo Mercier is a research director at the CNRS (Institut Jean Nicod, Paris), where he work with the Evolution and Social Cognition team. Check out his two books: The Enigma of Reason and Not Born Yesterday . We discuss Mercier's...
2025-06-2054 minIncrements
Increments#86 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 2)Go fund me page for Dr. Alaa Al-Najjar Please donate here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-dr-alaa-alnajjar-and-her-family-in-gaza Podcast w/ Dr. Ali Al Najjar https://open.spotify.com/episode/2f6twY40sjd0zwT0Eks3NX Further Reading https://www.thesun.ie/news/15281868/sligo-doctor-ali-al-najjar-nieces-nephew-killed-gaza/ https://www.thejournal.ie/brother-woman-nine-kids-gaza-6717437-May2025/ https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1515399/ https://www.oceanfm.ie/northwest-today-show/fundraiser-launched-after-sligo-doctors-9-nieces-and-nephews-killed-in-gaza-attack-504443 https://www.oceanfm.ie/news/dail-hears-of-devastation-caused-to-sligo-doctors-family-in-gaza-503064 https://m.independent.ie/regionals/sligo/news/sligo-doctors-nine-nephews-and-nieces-killed-in-devastating-gaza-attack/a121298480.html Episode Blurb Back with part two...
2025-05-311h 20Increments
Increments#85 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 1)We all knew that Vaden would release his inner Youtube debate bro at some point. Well he finally paid Ben enough to do it, and here we are: our first reaction video. Today we're commenting on the video What's the most rational way to know?, a discussion between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian on the relationship between confidence and evidence. Are we overly confident in our ability to make reaction videos? Evidently. Check out more from Brett Hall here and Peter Boghossian here. We discuss What is the relationship between confidence and evidence? The "...
2025-05-091h 49Increments
Increments#84 - A Primer on Not Born Yesterday by Hugo MercierSome thoughts (arguments?) on Hugo Mercier's Not Born Yesterday, which advances the thesis that humans are not as gullible as is commonly thought. This is our second episode on Mercier's work, and we're as intrigued as ever. But this time we have different interpretations of his thesis, so it's a good thing the man himself is coming on soon to sort us out. We discuss If humans are less gullible than is commonly believed Evolution of Communication Theory Gazelles jumping in the air Are humans too stubborn? Is one of your hosts who shall go unnamed...
2025-04-171h 09Increments
Increments#83 - The Anxious Generation Round II: Alternative ExplanationsRound two on the anxious generation. Well, honestly, round three. But we had a false start with round two, which is why this episode is a little late in coming. If you want to hear the gory, data-heavy details of our second attempt, you can access the episode by becoming a patron (was there ever a better sell?). We discuss Whether the rise in self-harm rates was due to reporting changes Whether education and common core could be affecting mental health Whether cultural pessimism is on the rise Cyberbullying Martin Gurri's thesis on the digital...
2025-03-271h 21Increments
Increments#82 - Are Screens Really That Bad? Critiquing Jon Haidt's "The Anxious Generation"Anxiety, dispair, loneliness, depression -- all we need is a social media recession! A popular thesis is that All The Bad Things things are on the rise among adolescents because of social media, a view popularized in Jon Haidt's 2024 book The Anxious Generation. Haidt is calling for an end of the "phone-based childhood" and hoping that schools banish all screens for the benefit of its students. But is it true than social media is causing this mental health crisis? Is it true that there even is a mental health crisis? We do a deep dive into Haidt's...
2025-03-061h 52Increments
Increments#81 - What Does Critical Rationalism Get Wrong? (w/ Kasra)As whores for criticism, we wanted to have Kasra on to discuss his essay The Deutschian Deadend. Kasra claims that Popper and Deutsch are fundamentally wrong in some important ways, and that many of their ideas will forever remain in the "footnotes of the history of philosophy". Does he change our mind or do we change his? Follow Kasra on twitter and subscribe to his blog, Bits of Wonder. We discuss Has Popper had of a cultural impact? The differences between Popper, Deutsch, and Deutsch's bulldogs. Is observation really theory laden? The hierarchy of...
2025-02-141h 39Increments
Increments#80 (C&R Series, Chap. 7) - Dare to Know: Immanuel Kant and the EnlightenmentImmanuel Kant was popular at his death. The whole town emptied out to see him. His last words were "it is good". But was his philosophy any good? In order to find out, we dive into Chapter 7 of Conjectures and Refutations: Kant’s Critique and Cosmology, where Popper rescues Kant's reputation from the clutches of the dastardly German Idealists. We discuss Deontology vs consquentialism vs virtue ethics Kant's Categorical Imperative Kant's contributions to cosmology and politics Kant as a defender of the enlightenment Romanticism vs (German) idealism vs critical rationalism Kant's cosmology and cosmogony Kant's antimony an...
2025-01-281h 06Increments
Increments#78 - What could Karl Popper have learned from Vladimir Nabokov? (w/ Brian Boyd)Where do you arrive if you follow Vaden's obsessions to their terminus? You arrive at Brian Boyd, the world expert on the two titanic thinkers of the 20th century: Karl Popper and Vladimir Nabokov. Boyd wrote his PhD thesis on Nabokov's 1969 novel Ada, impressing Nabokov's wife Vera so much that he was invited to catalogue Nabokov's unpublished archives. This led to Boyd's two-volume biography of Nabokov, which Vera kept on her beside table. Boyd also developed an interest in Popper, and began research for his biography in 1996, which was then promptly delayed as he worked on his...
2024-12-101h 00Increments
Increments#77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira)Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode? Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast. We discuss Definitions of "new knowledge" The reliance of deep learning on induction Can AIs be creative? The limits of statistical prediction Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish Can ChatGPT write funny jokes? ...
2024-11-192h 21Doom Debates
Doom DebatesAI Doom Debate: Vaden Masrani & Ben Chugg vs. Liron ShapiraVaden Masrani and Ben Chugg, hosts of the Increments Podcast, are back for a Part II! This time we’re going straight to debating my favorite topic, AI doom.00:00 Introduction02:23 High-Level AI Doom Argument17:06 How Powerful Could Intelligence Be?22:34 “Knowledge Creation”48:33 “Creativity”54:57 Stand-Up Comedy as a Test for AI01:12:53 Vaden & Ben’s Goalposts01:15:00 How to Change Liron’s Mind01:20:02 LLMs are Stochastic Parrots?01:34:06 Tools vs. Agents01:39:51 Instrumental Convergence and AI Goals01:45:51 Intelligence vs. Morality01:53:57 Mai...
2024-11-192h 21Increments
Increments#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians. Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast. We...
2024-11-082h 50Doom Debates
Doom DebatesIs P(Doom) Meaningful? Epistemology Debate with Vaden Masrani and Ben ChuggVaden Masrani and Ben Chugg, hosts of the Increments Podcast, are joining me to debate Bayesian vs. Popperian epistemology.I’m on the Bayesian side, heavily influenced by the writings of Eliezer Yudkowsky. Vaden and Ben are on the Popperian side, heavily influenced by David Deutsch and the writings of Popper himself.We dive into the theoretical underpinnings of Bayesian reasoning and Solomonoff induction, contrasting them with the Popperian perspective, and explore real-world applications such as predicting elections and economic policy outcomes.The debate highlights key philosophical differences between our two epistemological frameworks, an...
2024-11-082h 50Increments
Increments#75 - The Problem of Induction, Relitigated (w/ Tamler Sommers)When Very Bad Wizards meets Very Culty Popperians. We finally decided to have a real life professional philosopher on the pod to call us out on our nonsense, and are honored to have on Tamler Sommers, from the esteemed Very Bad Wizards podcast, to argue with us about the Problem of Induction. Did Popper solve it, or does his proposed solution, like all the other attempts, "fail decisively"? (Warning: One of the two hosts maaay have revealed their Popperian dogmatism a bit throughout this episode. Whichever host that is - they shall remain unnamed - apologizes quietly...
2024-10-231h 41Increments
Increments#74 - Disagreeing about Belief, Probability, and Truth (w/ David Deutsch)What do you do when one of your intellectual idols comes on the podcast? Bombard them with disagreements of course. We were thrilled to have David Deutsch on the podcast to discuss whether the concept of belief is a useful lens on human cognition, when probability and statistics should be deployed, and whether he disagrees with Karl Popper on abstractions, the truth, and nothing but the truth. Follow David on Twitter (@DavidDeutschOxf) or find his website here. We discuss Whether belief is a fruitful lens through which to analyze ideas Whether a non-quantitative form...
2024-10-011h 32Increments
Increments#73 - The Unfairness of Proportional RepresentationWant to make everyone under 30 extremely angry? Tell them you don't like proportional representation. Tell them proportional representation sucks, just like recycling. In this episode, we continue to improve your popularity at parties by diving into Sir Karl's theory of democracy, and his arguments for why the first-past-the-post electoral system is superior to proportional representation systems. And if you find anyone left at the party who still wants to talk to you, we also cover Chapter 13 of Beginning of Infinity, where Deutsch builds upon Popper's theory. And always remember, First-Past-The-Post: If it's good enough for the horses...
2024-09-131h 25Increments
Increments#72 (C&R, Chap. 19: Part II) - On the (alleged) Right of a Nation to Self-DeterminationPart two on Chapter 19 of Conjectures and Refutations! Last time we got a little hung up arguing about human behavior and motivations. Putting that disagreement aside, like mature adults, we move on to the rest of the chapter and Popper's remaining theses. In particular, we focus on Popper's criticism of the idea of a nation's right to self-determination. Things were going smoothly ... until roughly five minutes in, when we start disagreeing about what the "nation" in "nation state" actually means. (Note: Early listeners of this episode have commented that this one is a bit hard to follow...
2024-08-2751 minIncrements
Increments#71 (C&R, Chap 19: Part I) - The History of Our Time: An Optimist's ViewBack to the Conjectures and Refutations series, after a long hiatus! Given all that's happening in the world and the associated rampant pessimism, we thought it would be appropriate to tackle Chapter 19 - A History of Our Time: An Optimist's View. We get through a solid fifth of the chapter, at which point Ben and Vaden start arguing about whether people are fundamentally good, fundamentally bad, or fundamentally driven by signalling and incentives. And we finally answer the all-important question on everyone's mind: Does Adolf Eichmann support defunding the police? Banal Lives Matter. We discuss Thoughts...
2024-08-021h 12Increments
Increments#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't? Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in...
2024-07-091h 30Increments
Increments#69 - Contra Scott Alexander on ProbabilityAfter four episodes spent fawning over Scott Alexander's "Non-libertarian FAQ", we turn around and attack the good man instead. In this episode we respond to Scott's piece "In Continued Defense of Non-Frequentist Probabilities", and respond to each of his five arguments defending Bayesian probability. Like moths to a flame, we apparently cannot let the probability subject slide, sorry people. But the good news is that before getting there, you get to here about some therapists and pedophiles (therapeutic pedophelia?). What's the probability that Scott changes his mind based on this episode? We discuss Why we're not...
2024-06-201h 45Increments
Increments#68 - Libertarianism IV: Political Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)The final part in a series which has polarized the nation. We tackle -- alongside Bruce Nielson as always -- the remaining part of Scott's FAQ: Political Issues. Can the government get anything right? Has Scott strawmanned the libertarian argument in this section? Is libertarianism an economic theory, a political theory, a metaphysical theory, or a branch of physics? And what do Milton and Ludwig have to say about all this? Warning: we get a little meta with this one... We discuss Is the government effective at doing anything? What's the use of thinking counterfactually? Is...
2024-05-301h 50Increments
Increments#67 - Libertarianism III: Social Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Have you ever wanted to be more rich? Have you considered just working a bit harder? Welcome to part III of our libertarian series, where we discuss Part B: Social Issues of Scott Alexander's Anti-Libertarian FAQ, which critiques the libertarian view that if you're rich, you deserve it, and if you're poor, well, you deserve that too. As always, the estimable Bruce Nielson (@bnielson) helps guide is through the thorny wicket of libertarian thought. We discuss Do the poor deserve to be poor? Waddabout the rich? Is dogmatism ever a good thing? Is social mobility determined...
2024-05-091h 45Increments
Increments#66 - Sex Research, Addiction, and Financial Domination (w/ Aella)What do you get when you mix nerds and sex research? A deep dive into the world of fetish statistics, men's calibration about women's sexual preferences, and the crazy underground world of financial domination. Stay tuned as Aella walks the boys through the world of gangbangs, camming, OnlyFans, escorting, findom, and even live-tests Vaden's wild hypothesis against her huge, thick, dataset. We discuss How to describe what Aella does Aella's bangin' birthday party The state of sex research Conservative and neo-trad pushback and whether Aella is immune from cancellation Are men calibrated when it comes to...
2024-04-181h 06Increments
Increments#65 - Libertarianism II: Economic Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Back at it again, as we coerce you into listening to Part 2 of our four part series on Libertarianism, with Mr. Bruce Nielson (@bnielson01). In this episode we cover the Economic Issues section of Scott Alexander's (non-aggressive and principled) non-libertarian FAQ, and discuss his four major economic critiques of the libertarian view that free and voluntary trade between consenting, informed, rational individuals is the best possible thing ever, with no downsides at all. Also, can we interest you in buying some wasps? We discuss Loose ends from last episode - coercion and the Non-Aggression Principle What...
2024-03-281h 33Increments
Increments#64 - Libertarianism I: Intro and Moral Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson)Liberty! Freedom! Coercion! Taxes are theft! The State is The Enemy! Bitcoin! Crypto! Down with the central banks! Let's all return to the Gold Standard! Have you encountered such phrases in the wild? Confused, perhaps, as to why an afternoon beer with a friend become an extended diatribe against John Maynard Kaynes? Us too, which is why we're diving into the ideological source of such views: Libertarianism. Welcome to Part 1 of a four part series where we, with Bruce Nielson (@bnielson01) as our battle-hardened guide, dive into Scott Alexander's non-libertarian FAQ. Ought George help, or...
2024-03-071h 52Increments
Increments#63 - Recycling is the DumpsClose your eyes, and think of a bright and pristine, clean and immaculately run recycling center, green'r than a giant's thumb. Now think of a dirty, ugly, rotting landfill, stinking in the mid-day sun. Of these two scenarios, which, do you reckon, is worse for the environment? In this episode, Ben and Vaden attempt to reduce and refute a few reused canards about recycling and refuse, by rereading Rob Wiblin's excellent piece which addresses the aformentioned question: What you think about landfill and recycling is probably totally wrong. Steel yourselves for this one folks, because you may...
2024-02-141h 06Increments
Increments#61 - Debating Free Will: Frankenstein's Monster and a Filmstrip of the Universe (with Lucas Smalldon)While you're reading this you're having a thought. Something like "wow, I love the Increments podcast", or "those hosts are some handsome" or "I really wish people would stop talking about free will." Do you have a choice in the matter? Are you free to choose what you're thinking in any given moment, or is it determined by your genetics, environment, and existing ideas? Is the universe determined, are we all Frankenstein's monster? How does one profitably think about that question? Today we have Lucas Smalldon on to help us think through these questions. We reference Lucas's...
2024-01-171h 42Increments
Increments#60 - Creativity and Computational Universality (with Bruce Nielson)Today we [finally] have on someone who actually knows what they're actually talking about: Mr. Bruce Nielson of the excellent Theory of Anything Podcast. We bring him on to straighten us out on the topics of creativity, machine intelligence, Turing machines, and computational universality - We build upon our previous conversation way back in Ask Us Anything I: Computation and Creativity, and suggest listening to that episode first. Go follow Bruce on twitter (https://twitter.com/bnielson01) and check out his Theory of Anything Podcast here. (Also Vaden's audio was acting up a bit in...
2024-01-041h 58Increments
Increments#59 (C&R, Chap 8) - On the Status of Science and Metaphysics (Plus reflections on the Brett Hall blog exchange)Back to the C&R series baby! Feels goooooood. Need some bar-room explanations for why induction is impossible? We gotchu. Need some historical background on where your boy Isaac got his ideas? We gotchu. Need to know how to refute the irrefutable? Gotchu there too homie, because today we're diving into Conjectures and Refutations, Chapter 8: On the Status of Science and Metaphysics. Oh, and we also discuss, in admittedly frustrated tones, the failed blog exchange between Brett Hall and Vaden on prediction and Austrianism. If you want the full listening experience, we suggest reading both posts before...
2023-12-221h 26Increments
Increments#58 - Ask Us Anything V: How to Read and What to ReadAlright people, we made it. Six months, a few breaks, some uncontrollable laughter, some philosophy, many unhinged takes, a little bit of diarrhea and we're here, the last Ask Us Anything. After this we're never answering another God D*** question. Ever. We discuss Do you wish you could change your own interests? Methods of information ingestion Taking books off their pedestal bit Intellectual influences Veganism (why Ben is, why Vaden isn't) Anti-rational memes Fricken Andrew Huberman again Stoicism Are e-fuels the best of the best or the worst of the worst? Questions (Andrew...
2023-11-291h 40Increments
Increments#57 (Bonus) - A calm and soothing discussion of The PatriarchyWe we're looking for a nice light topic for our patron only episode, so Vaden naturally chosen to chat about the patriarchy. I guess he didn't get into enough trouble in his personal life talking about it so he wanted to make his support and admiration for the patriarchy public. This is a sneak preview into the land of patreon bonus episodes, so be sure to fork over some cold hard cash if you'd like a bit more mansplaining in your life. We discuss Harassment of women in various spheres of life The patriarchy...
2023-11-151h 01Increments
Increments#56 - Ask Us Anything IV: Certainty, Emergence, and Popperian ImperativesPerhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay my friends, the age of the AMA has just begun! We'll answer your questions until the cows come home; until Godot arrives; until all the world's babies are potty-trained. Or, at least, until we stop laughing. We discuss Potty training, taking babies seriously, and adult diapers Why Vaden never daydreams, fantasizes, or minds spending 10 hours in a car Whether the subjective notions of certainty, belief, or confidence deserve a spot in...
2023-11-011h 21Increments
Increments#55 - Is all thought problem-solving?Our argument at the end of last episode spilled over into discord, DMs, and world news, so we felt compelled to dedicate a full episode to addressing the question "Is all thought problem solving?" Some arguments make history, like whether atomic bombs were required in WWII, whether all philosophy is simply a language game, and whether the chicken did indeed come before the egg. Will this be one of them? We cover: How Vaden listens to podcasts and why he thinks Andrew Huberman sucks (but studies show that Andrew Huberman is great!) Popper's evolutionary take on...
2023-10-0954 minIncrements
Increments#54 - Ask Us Anything III: Emotional EpistemologyBack again with AUA #3 - we're getting there people! Only, uhh, seven questions to go? Incremental progress baby. Plus, we see a good old Vaden and Ben fight in this one! Thank God, because things were getting a little stale with Vaden hammering on longtermism and Ben on cliodynamics. We cover: Is hypnosis a real thing? Types of universality contained within the genetic code Pressures associated with turning political/philosophical ideas into personal identities How do emotions/feelings interface with our rational/logical mind? How should they? Vaden's (hopefully one-off) experience with Bipolar Type-1 and psychosis Is problem...
2023-09-181h 18Increments
Increments#53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and DecisionsAsk us anything? Ask us everything! Back at it again with AUA Part 2/N. We wax poetic and wane dramatic on a number of subjects, including: Ben's dark and despicable hidden historicist tendencies Expounding upon (one of our many) critiques of Bayesian Epistemology Ben's total abandonment of all of his principles Similarities and differences between human and computer decision making What can the critical rationalist community learn from Effective Altruism? Ben's new best friend Peter Turchin How to have effective disagreements and not take gleeful petty jabs at friends and co-hosts. Questions (Michael) A critique of...
2023-08-141h 34Increments
Increments#52 - Ask Us Anything I: Computation and CreativityWe debated calling this episode "An ode to Michael," because we set out to do an AMA but only get through his first two questions. But never fear, there are only 20 questions, so at this rate we should be done the AMA by the end of 2024. Who said we weren't fans of longtermism? Questions: Hey do you guys have a Patreon page or anyway to support you? (Michael) Not clear that humans are universal explainers. Standard argument for this is "to assume o.w. is to appeal to the supernatural," but this argument is weak b...
2023-07-101h 13Increments
Increments#51 - Truth, Moose, and Refrigerated Eggplant: Critiquing Chapman's Meta-RationalityVaden comes out swinging against David Chapman's work on meta-rationality. Is Chapman pointing out a fatal flaw, or has Popper solved these problems long ago? Do moose see cups? Does Ben see cups? What the f*** is a cup? We discuss Chapman's concept of nebulosity Whether this concept is covered by Popper The relationship of nebulosity and the vagueness of language The correspondence theory of truth If the concept of "problem situation" saves us from Chapman's critique Why "conjecture and criticism" isn't everything References The excellent Do Explain podcast. Go listen, right now! In...
2023-05-291h 12Increments
Increments#50 - On the Evolutionary Origins of Storytelling, Art, and ScienceFifty godd*** episodes! 'Tis been a ride full of debate, drinks, questionable arguments, Ben becoming both a dualist and a social media addict, and Vaden stalwartly not changing his mind about a single thing. To celebrate, we dive into a thesis which connects many strands of what we've discussed over the years: Brian Boyd's work on art and fiction. Boyd provides an evolutionary account of why we're heavily invested in both creating and consuming fictional narratives. If this was simply a fun habit without any real advantage, such a propensity would have been selected against long ago...
2023-04-242h 00Increments
Increments#49 - AGI: Could The End Be Nigh? (With Rosie Campbell)When big bearded men wearing fedoras begin yelling at you that the end is nigh and superintelligence is about to kill us all, what should you do? Vaden says don't panic, and Ben is simply awestruck by the ability to grow a beard in the first place. To help us think through the potential risks and rewards of ever more impressive machine learning models, we invited Rosie Campbell on the podcast. Rosie is on the safety team at OpenAI and, while she's more worried about the existential risks of AI than we are, she's just as keen...
2023-03-221h 24Increments
Increments#48 (C&R Chap. 18) - Utopia and ViolenceYou may, perchance, have noticed that the sweeping utopian movements of the past did not end well. And most of them involved an horrific amount of violence. Is this connection just chance, or is there something inherent to utopian thinking which leads to violent ends? We turn to Chapter 18 of Conjectures and Refutations where Popper gives us his spicy take. We discuss How do you "see" your early memories? Vaden corrects the record on a few points Rationality grounded in humility versus goal-oriented rationality If ends can be decided rationally How and if goal-oriented rationality leads...
2023-02-241h 00Increments
Increments#47 (Bonus) - Dualism, Reductionism, and Explanation PancakesSecond holiday season bonus episode! Vaden joins Chesto on The Declaration podcast to talk about monism, dualism, the reality of abstractions, emergence, and reductionism. This convo was recorded in 2019, but much of the content is evergreen and we think it still makes for interestin' listenin'. Except the sound quality, which leaves much to be desired. Thanks Blue Yeti. We discuss: The mind-body problem Why Vaden is a filthy pluralist and Chesto is a sober, sane, rational materialist Reductonism vs dualism vs pluralism The reality of abstractions Why explanations are central to science Would you get into...
2023-01-161h 32Increments
Increments#46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos)We make a guest appearance on Nick Anyos' podcast to talk about effective altruism, longtermism, and probability. Nick (very politely) pushes back on our anti-Bayesian credo, and we get deep into the weeds of probability and epistemology. You can find Nick's podcast on institutional design here, and his substack here. We discuss: The lack of feedback loops in longtermism Whether quantifying your beliefs is helpful Objective versus subjective knowledge The difference between prediction and explanation The difference between Bayesian epistemology and Bayesian statistics Statistical modelling and when statistics is useful Links Philosophy...
2022-12-191h 59Increments
Increments#45 - Four Central Fallacies of AI Research (with Melanie Mitchell)We were delighted to be joined by Davis Professor at the Sante Fe Insitute, Melanie Mitchell! We chat about our understanding of artificial intelligence, human intelligence, and whether it's reasonable to expect us to be able to build sophisticated human-like automated systems anytime soon. Follow Melanie on twitter @MelMitchell1 and check out her website: https://melaniemitchell.me/ We discuss: AI hype through the ages How do we know if machines understand? Winograd schemas and the "WinoGrande" challenge. The importance of metaphor and analogies to intelligence The four fallacies in AI research: 1. Narrow intelligence is...
2022-10-3153 minIncrements
Increments#44 - Longtermism Revisited: What We Owe the FutureLike moths to a flame, we come back to longtermism once again. But it's not our fault. Will MacAskill published a new book, What We Owe the Future, and billions (trillions!) of lives are at stake if we don't review it. Sisyphus had his task and we have ours. We're doing it for the (great great great ... great) grandchildren. We discuss: Whether longtermism is actionable Whether the book is a faithful representation of longtermism as practiced Why humans are actually cool, despite what you might hear Some cool ideas from the book including career advice and...
2022-10-031h 02Increments
Increments#43 - Artificial General Intelligence and the AI Safety debateSome people think that advanced AI is going to kill everyone. Some people don't. Who to believe? Fortunately, Ben and Vaden are here to sort out the question once and for all. No need to think for yourselves after listening to this one, we've got you covered. We discuss: How well does math fit reality? Is that surprising? Should artificial general intelligence (AGI) be considered "a person"? How could AI possibly "go rogue?" Can we know if current AI systems are being creative? Is misplaced AI fear hampering progress? References: The Unreasonable effectiveness of...
2022-08-291h 07Increments
Increments#42 (C&R, Chap 12+13) - Language and the Body-Mind ProblemBen and Vaden sit down to discuss what is possibly Popper's most confusing essay ever: Language and the Body-Mind Problem: A restatement of Interactionism. Determinism, causality, language, bodies, minds, and Ferris Buhler. What's not to like! Except for the terrible writing, spanning the entire essay. And before we get to that, we revolutionize the peer-review system in less than 10 minutes. We discuss Problems with the current peer-review system and how to improve it The Mind-Body Problem How chaos theory relates to determinism The four functions of language Why you don't argue with thermometers Whether Popper thinks...
2022-07-2150 minIncrements
Increments#41 - Parenting, Epistemology, and EA (w/ Lulie Tanett)We're joined by the wonderful Lulie Tanett to talk about effective altruism, pulling spouses out of burning buildings, and why you should prefer critical rationalism to Bayesianism for your mom's sake. Buckle up! We discuss: Lulie's recent experience at EA Global Bayesianism and how it differs from critical rationalism Common arguments in favor of Bayesianism Taking Children Seriously What it was like for Lulie growing up without going to school The Alexander Technique, Internal Family Systems, Gendlin's Focusing, and Belief Reporting References EA Global Taking Children Seriously Alexander Technique Internal Family Systems Gendlin Focusing
2022-06-211h 18Increments
Increments#40 - The Myth of The Framework: On the possibility of fruitful discussionIs there any possibility of fruitful dialogue with your mildly crazy, significantly intoxicated uncle at Thanksgiving dinner? We turn to Karl Popper's essay, The Myth of the Framework, to find out. Popper argues that it's wrong to assume that fruitful conversation is only possible among those who share an underlying framework of beliefs and assumptions. In fact, there's more to learn in difficult conversations which lack such a framework. We discuss What is The Myth of the Framework? The relationship between the myth of the framework and epistemological and moral relativism Modern examples of the myth...
2022-05-3045 minThe Gentlemen Project Podcast
The Gentlemen Project Podcast"Infertility, Learning from Epic Adventures, Grit and Tapping into Human Potential" with Ben DodgeAt over 300 lbs, Ben Dodge signed up for his first triathlon. The journey he embarked on since has been full of epic adventures all over the globe. From biking across the Continental US in just over a week to recently hiking Mt. Kilimanjaro, Ben has found that the secret to his happiness is constantly pushing what the normal is and discovering that we as humans have more potential than we ever thought possible. Ben discusses the challenges and lessons of infertility, raising a son with special needs,  overcoming self doubt and tackling challenges head on. With adventure as a m...
2022-05-2349 minIncrements
Increments#39 - The Enigma of ReasonThe most reasonable and well-reasoned discussion of reason you can be reasonably expected to hear. Today we talk about the book The Enigma of Reason by Dan Sperber and Hugo Mercier. But first, get ready for dogs, modern art, and babies! *We discuss * Reason as a social phenomenon The two roles of reason: To justify our actions, and to evaluate the reasons of others Reason as module of inference, and how that contrasts with dual-process theories The "intellectualist" vs the "interactionist" approach to reason Nassim Taleb's notion of "skin in the game" The consequences of reason...
2022-04-281h 01Increments
Increments#38 (C&R Series, Ch. 2) - Wittgenstein vs PopperWe cover the spicy showdown between the two of the world's most headstrong philosophers: Ludwig Wittgenstein and Karl Popper. In a dingy Cambridge classroom Wittgenstein once threatened Popper with a fireplace poker. What led to the disagreement? In this episode, we continue with the Conjectures and Refutations series by analyzing Chapter 2: The Nature of Philosophical Problems And Their Roots In Science, where Popper outlines his agreements and disagreements with Mr. Ludwig Wittgenstein. We discuss: Are there philosophical problems? Why are scientific disciplines divided as they are? How much of philosophy is meaningless pseudo-babble? (Hint: Not none) ...
2022-03-081h 03Increments
Increments#37 - Montessori Education w/ Matt BatemanWe're joined today by Matt Bateman, one of the founders of Higher Ground Education, to discuss the Montessori method of education and how it compares to other teaching methodologies. Get ready for tiny furniture, putting on your jacket upside down, and teaching your toddler to make eggs benedict. We discuss: Maria Montessori What is a Montessori education (besides tiny furniture)? How Montessori classrooms differ from regular ones Why long periods of interrupted problem solving is important for a child's development How Montessori integrates with technology Drawbacks of traditional methods of testing and grading, and how they might...
2022-02-161h 21Increments
Increments#36 - Analyzing Effective Altruism as a Social MovementIn what is hopefully the last installment of Vaden and Ben debate Effective Altruism, we ask if EA lies on the cultishness (yes, that's a word) spectrum. We discuss: The potential pitfall of having goodness as a core value Aspects of Effective Altruism (EA) that put it on the cultishness spectrum Does EA focus on good over truth? Ben's experience with EA Making criticism a core value How does one resist the allure of groupthink? How to (mis)behave at parties How would one create a movement which doesn't succumb to cult-like dynamics? Weird ideas as junk food
2022-01-2756 minIncrements
Increments#35 - Climate Change III: Fossil FuelsCome experience the thrill of the shill as we discuss the somewhat-controversial natural resource called "fossil fuels". In this episode, we drill deep into opto-pessimist Vaclav Smil's excellent book Oil: A Beginner's Guide, in what is possibly our only episode to feature heterodox Russian-Ukrainian science, subterranean sound waves, and that goop lady - what's her name? It's unbelievable, right? We discuss: The science behind fossil fuels: How they're made, found, processed, and used Energy transitions and the shale gas revolution Global oil dependence and human rights The environmental costs of fossil fuels Will we reach Peak...
2021-11-2947 minIncrements
Increments#34 - Climate Change II: Growth, Degrowth, Reactions, ResponsesIn this episode Ben convinces Vaden to become a degrowther. We plan how to live out the rest of our lives on an organic tomato farm in Canada in December, sewing our own clothes and waxing our own candles. Step away from the thermostat Jimmy. We discuss: The degrowth movement The basics of economic growth, and why it's good for developing economies in particular How growth enables resilience in the face of environmental disasters Why the environment is in better shape than you think Availability bias and our tendency to think everything is falling apart The...
2021-11-1055 minIncrements
Increments#33 (C&R Series, Ch. 3) - Instrumentalism and EssentialismGalileo vs the church - whose side are you on? Today we discuss Chapter 3 of Conjectures and Refutations, Three Views Concerning Human Knowledge. This is a juicy one, as Popper manages to simultaneously attack both philosophers and physicists, as he takes on instrumentalism and essentialism, two alternatives to his 'conjecture and refutation' approach to knowledge. We discuss: The conflict between Galileo and the church What is instrumentalism, and how did it become popular? How instrumentalism is still in vogue in many physics departments The Problem of Universals The essentialist approach to science Stars, air, cells, and lightning "What...
2021-10-2540 minIncrements
Increments#32 - Climate Change I: Initial Thought-CrimesAfter the immensely positive response to our previous episode on the Weinstein brothers - thanks @robertwiblin! - we thought we would keep giving the people what they want, and what they want is a long discussion on climate change. Specifically, the subject for today is: "The State of the Climate Debate". We touch on: The near perfect partisan split on climate change Will there be a climate apocalypse? The promise of nuclear energy as a solution The limitations of renewables Energy portfolios The rebound effect Degrowth economics Activist tactics and fear mongering Whether The Environment has become...
2021-10-0651 minIncrements
Increments#31 - The Fall of the Weinstein RepublicToday we take your twitter questions before doing a deep dive into the Weinstein fiasco (Bret and Eric, not Harvey.) If you haven't heard of the Weinstein's before, then we suggest you run away before we drag you down into a rabbit hole filled with acronyms, anti-vaxxers, and theories of ... everything? anything? literally anything at all? Topics we touch: We take your twitter questions! Filos with a weird one: I have a weird one that could be fun. It seems to me that the idea that we could upload our minds to a computer is nonsense...
2021-09-1454 minIncrements
Increments#30 - Let's all just have a good cry (w/ Christofer Lövgren)Christofer Lövgren, host of the marvelous Do Explain podcast and world's most famous Swede (second perhaps only to that Alfred fellow with the peace prize), joins us on the pod to teach us how podcasting is really done. And how to pronounce his last name. When we're not all sobbing, we touch on: Does Deutschian epistemology give us with Free Will? Should one identify as a critical rationalist? Does membership in a community, or identification with a label, affect our ability to give and receive criticism? How has reading Deutsch and Popper changed our lives? Can trauma g...
2021-08-301h 39Increments
Increments#29 - Some Scattered Thoughts on SuperforecastingWe're back! Apologies for the delay, but Vaden got married and Ben was summoned to be an astronaut on the next billionaire's vacation to Venus. This week we're talking about how to forecast the future (with this one simple and easy trick! Astrologers hate them!). Specifically, we're diving into Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting. So what's the deal? Is it possible to "harness the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events"? Or is the whole thing just a result of sloppy statistics? We believe the latter is likely to be true with probability 64.9% - no, wait, 66.1%.
2021-08-1645 minDo Explain with Christofer Lövgren
Do Explain with Christofer Lövgren#31.2 - Problematic Probability, with Ben ChuggChristofer and podcaster Ben Chugg speak about probability and prediction in this episode of Do Explain. They discuss Pascal's mugging, bayesian decision theory, historicism and cliodynamics, AI-risk, immortality, moral cluelessness, and other related topics.Ben Chugg is a research fellow at Stanford law school. He has a background in math and computer science and, along with Vaden Masrani, hosts the increments podcast. He also writes insightful philosophy articles at Medium.Website: https://benchugg.com/Medium: https://benchugg.medium.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BennyChuggPodcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us...
2021-08-011h 27Increments
Increments#28 (C&R Series, Ch. 9) - Why is Logic Applicable to Reality?Why do logic and mathematics work so well in the world? Why do they seem to describe reality? Why do they they enable us to design circuit boards, build airplanes, and listen remotely to handsome and charming podcast hosts who rarely go off topic? To answer these questions, we dive into Chapter 9 of Conjectures and Refutations: Why are the Calculi of Logic and Arithmetic Applicable to Reality?. But before we get to that, we touch on some of the good stuff: evolutionary psychology, cunnilingus, and why Robin is better than Batman. References: ...
2021-07-191h 01Do Explain with Christofer Lövgren
Do Explain with Christofer Lövgren#31.1 - Nonuniversal Explainers, with Ben ChuggChristofer and podcaster Ben Chugg speak about evolutionary psychology in this episode of Do Explain. They discuss listening to podcasts at faster speed, information addiction, the role of neurobiology, impatience, the fun criterion, universal explainers, the salience of memory/speed in intelligence, and other related topics.Ben Chugg is a research fellow at Stanford law school. He has a background in math and computer science and, along with Vaden Masrani, hosts the increments podcast. He also writes insightful philosophy articles at Medium. Website: https://benchugg.com/Medium: https://benchugg.medium.com/...
2021-07-111h 12Increments
Increments#27 - A Conversation with MarianneThere are many overused internet keywords that could be associated with this conversation, but none of them quite seem right. So here's a poem instead: The Ogre does what ogres can, Deeds quite impossible for Man, But one prize is beyond his reach: The Ogre cannot master speech. About a subjugated plain, Among its desperate and slain, The Ogre stalks with hands on hips, While drivel gushes from his lips - August 1968, W H Auden Send us an email at incrementspodcast@gmail.com ...
2021-06-282h 01Increments
Increments#26 - Moral Philosophy Cage Match (with Dan Hageman)In a rare turn of events, it just so happened that one or perhaps both of your charming co-hosts spewed a bit of nonsense about Derek Parfit in a previous episode, and we had to bring in a heavy hitter to sort us out. Today we're joined by friend of the podcast Mr. Dan Hageman, immuno-oncologist by day and aspiring ethicist by night, who gently takes us to task for misunderstanding Parfit and the role of ethical theorizing, and for ignoring the suffering of pigeons. The critiques land, and convince Vaden that we should dedicate our resources towards providing...
2021-06-081h 33Increments
Increments#25 - Mathematical Explanation with Mark ColyvanWe often talk of explanation in the context of empirical sciences, but what about explanation in logic and mathematics? Is there such a thing? If so, what does it look like and what are the consequences? In this episode we sit down with professor of philosophy Mark Colyvan and explore How mathematical explanation differs from explanation in the natural sciences Counterfactual reasoning in mathematics Intra versus extra mathematical explanation Alternate logics Mathematical thought experiments The use of probability in the courtroom References: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences by Eugene Wigner. Proofs and...
2021-05-242h 07Increments
Increments#24 - Popper's Three WorldsThis episode begins with a big announcement! Ben has officially become a cat person, and is now Taking Cats Seriously. Vaden follows up with some news of his own, before diving into the main subject for today's episode - Popper's Three Worlds. In this episode we discuss:The TCS parenting movement Chesto's tweet to DeutschHow Popper's Three Worlds differs from Deutsch's Things/Qualia/Abstractions classificationWould prime numbers exist if humans didn't exist?What constitutes reality?The existence of non-physical entities and the reality of abstractions  Having a quick glance at the following wikipedia pages will hel...
2021-05-111h 13Increments
Increments#23 - Physics, Philosophy, and Free Will with Sam KuypersWe are joined by the great Sam Kuypers for a conversation on physics, philosophy, and free will. Vaden spends most of the episode preparing for a huge debate on free-will, and Ben spends it worried about what alternate versions of himself are up to in parallel universes. Still, we manage to touch on a few topics: Realism and antirealist interpretations of quantum theoryThe advisory styles of Dennis Sciama and John Wheeler and the standardization of education Reconciling the Harris / Deutsch perspectives on Free WillRestorative and Rehabilitative justiceA universe in which Ben spontaneously explodes into dust while spe...
2021-05-031h 33Increments
Increments#22 - Thinking Through Thought ExperimentsIn this episode, we discuss Peter Singer's famous drowning child thought experiment, the role of moral theories, and the role of thought experiments in moral reasoning. From our perspectives, the conversation went something like this:  Ben's POV: Bravely and boldly trying to think through problems, Ben puts forward a stunningly insightful theory about the role of moral argumentation. Vaden, jealous of the profundity of Ben's message, tries to disagree but can't. Vaden's POV: What the eff is Ben talking about? I disagree. No wait nvm I agree. Let's change the subject. References in i...
2021-04-151h 16Increments
Increments#21 (C&R Series, Ch.1) - The Problem of InductionAfter a long digression, we finally return to the Conjectures and Refutations series. In this episode we cover Chapter 1: Science: Conjectures and Refutations. In particular, we focus on one of the trickiest Popperian concepts to wrap one's head around - the problem of induction.  References:Wiki on scientific laws Hume's dialogues concerning natural religion  Proof of the impossibility of probability induction One of the YouTube videos on induction. And in case you were wondering what happened to the two unfalsifiable theories Popper attacks in this chapter, you'll be pleased to know that they have merged into...
2021-03-2353 minIncrements
Increments#20 (HTI crossover episode) - Roundtable Longtermism DiscussionHello and sorry for the delay! We finally got together with Fin and Luca from the excellent HearThisIdea podcast for a nice roundtable discussion on longtermism. We laughed, we cried, we tried our best to communicate across the divide.  Material referenced in the discussion:- 80k Hours Problem Profiles- Jon Hamm  imprisons us in an Alexa- The Case for Strong Longtermism- A Case Against Strong Longtermism- Nick Bostrom's seminal paper on existential risksQuote:  "[Events like Chernobyl, Bhopal, volcano eruptions, earthquakes, draughts, World War I, Wor...
2021-03-083h 14Increments
Increments#19 - Against Longtermism FAQBack in the ring for round two on longtermism! We (Ben somewhat drunkenly) respond to some of the criticism of episode #17 and our two essays (Ben's, Vaden's) We touch on: Ben's hate mail from his piece on cliodynamicsLongtermism as implying altruistic portfolio shufflingWhat on earth is Bayesian epistemology The Pasadena gameAuthoritarianism and the danger of seeking perfection Arrow's theoremAlternative decision theories focusing on error correction What's the probability of nuclear war before 2100?When are models reliable What problems to work on You will, dear listener, be either pleased or horrified to learn that this will not be our la...
2021-02-021h 30Increments
Increments#18 - Work AddictionBit of a personal episode this one is! Ben learns how to be a twitter warrior while Vaden has a full-on breakdown during quarantine. Who knew work addiction was actually a real thing? And that there are 12 step programs for people who identify as being "powerless over compulsive work, worry, or activity"? And that mathematics can create compulsive behavior indistinguishable from drug addiction? Vaden does, now. People mentioned in this episode: - Andrew Wiles (look at his face! the face of an addict!) - Grigori Perelman - Terry Tao's blog post ("There i...
2021-01-1434 minIncrements
Increments#17 - Against LongtermismWell, there's no avoiding controversy with this one. We explain, examine, and attempt to refute the shiny new moral philosophy of longtermism. Our critique focuses on The Case for Strong Longtermism by Hilary Greaves and Will MacAskill. We say so in the episode, but it's important to emphasize that we harbour no animosity towards anyone in the effective altruism community. However, we both think that longtermism is pretty f***ing scary and do our best to communicate why.Confused as to why there's no charming, witty, and hilarious intro? Us too. Somehow, Ben managed to...
2020-12-191h 30Increments
Increments#16 - Social Media II: Conversation, Privacy, and Odds & EndsVaden comes battle-hardened and ready to debate and is met with ... a big soft hug from Ben. Ben repents his apocalyptic sins and admits that Vaden changed his mind. Again. God dammit this is getting annoying. To his credit, Vaden only gloats for 10 minutes.  Eventually we touch on some other topics: technology as filling nicheswhen is outrage appropriate? the upsides of social media conversation as a substitute for violence Much love to everyone and stay safe out there! Send us some feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com Support Increments
2020-12-1050 minIncrements
Increments#15 - Social Media I: Manipulation, Outrage, and DocumentariesAlright spiders, point this at your brain. Ben and Vaden do a deep dive into the recent Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma and have a genuine debate, just like the good ol' days.  Topics touched:Why Vaden dislikes documentaries, and this one in particularIs reliance on social media a problem?The advertisement modelThe relationship between social media and mental health... and political polarization... and outrage in generalEpistemological erosionWars of words and swordsOutraged? Polarized? Radicalized, even?  We want to hear about it at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.Quotes referenced in episode:"This point being cr...
2020-11-121h 22Increments
Increments#14 (C&R Series, Ch.16) - Prediction, Prophecy, and FascismThe third in the Conjectures and Refutations series, we cover Chapter 16: Prediction And Prophecy in the Social Sciences. There's a bit more Hitler stuff in this one than usual (retweets  ≠ endorsements), but only because he provides a clear example of the motherlode of all bad ideas - historicism. We discuss:What historicism is and why it sucksPrediction vs prophecyDifferences between the physical sciences and social sciencesThe success of prediction in the physical sciencesThe role of the social sciencesWhat are laws of nature?Plus a little easter egg! As always send us a little sumptin' sumptin' at incrementspodcast@gma...
2020-10-251h 08Increments
Increments#13 - Privacy with Stephen CainesStephen is back for round two! In this episode we learn that Vaden wants to live in a panopticon and Ben in a high tech surveillance state. Also, we're all going to use Bing from now on.  Stephen Caines is a research fellow at Stanford law school's CodeX centre for legal informatics, where he specializes in the domestic use of facial recognition technology. He received a J.D. from  the University of Miami  with a concentration in the Business of Innovation, Law, and Technology.  Bring on da feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com; we check it at l...
2020-10-151h 01Increments
Increments#12 (C&R Series, Ch. 17) - Public Opinion and Liberal PrinciplesIn the lead up to the American presidential election, one of the largest and most consequential expressions of public opinion, Ben and Vaden do what they always do and ask: "What does Popper say about this?" The second in the Conjectures and Refutations series, we cover Chapter 17: Public Opinion and Liberal Principles.  Largely irrelevant and probably unhelpful, we touch A thesis that the far left and right are converging vis-a-vis reactionary politicsThe idea that "truth is manifest", i.e. obvious The role of free speech and diversity of opinionPolitical polarizationLibertarians and their hate of seatbeltsSend us som...
2020-10-121h 15Increments
Increments#11 - Debating Existential RiskVaden's arguments against Bayesian philosophy and existential risk are examined by someone who might actually know what they're talking about, i.e., not Ben. After writing a critique of our conversation in Episode 7, which started off a series of blog posts, our good friend Mauricio (who studies political science, economics, and philosophy) kindly agrees to come on the podcast and try to figure out who's more confused. Does Vaden convert? We apologize for the long wait between this episode and the last one. It was all Vaden's fault. Hit us up at incrementspodcast@gmail.com!
2020-09-171h 29Increments
Increments#10 (C&R Series, Ch. 4) - TraditionTraditions, what are you good for? Absolutely nothing? In this episode of Increments, Ben and Vaden begin their series on Conjectures and Refutations by looking at the role tradition plays in society, and examine one tradition in particular - the critical tradition. No monkeys were harmed in the making of this episode. References:- C&R, Chapter 4: Towards a Rational Theory of TraditionPodcast shoutout:- Jennifer Doleac and Rob Wiblin on policing, law and incarceration- James Foreman Jr. on the US criminal...
2020-08-131h 15Increments
Increments#9 - Facial Recognition Technology with Stephen CainesThe talented Stephen Caines punctures the cloud of confusion that is Ben and Vaden's conception of facial recognition technology. We talk about the development and usage of facial recognition in the private and public spheres, the dangers and merits of the technology, and Vaden's plan to use it a bars. For God's sake don't give that man a GPU. Stephen is a legal technologist with a passion for access to justice. He is a 2019 graduate of the University of Miami School of Law with a concentration in the Business of Innovation, Law, and Technology. While in...
2020-08-071h 22Increments
Increments#8 - Philosophy of Probability III: Conjectures and RefutationsOn the same page at last! Ben comes to the philosophical confessional to announce his probabilistic sins. The Bayesians will be pissed (with high probability). At least Vaden doesn't make him kiss anything. After too much agreement and self-congratulation, Ben and Vaden conclude the mini-series on the philosophy of probability, and "announce" an upcoming mega-series on Conjectures and Refutations. References:- My Bayesian Enlightenment by Eliezer YudkowskyRationalist community blogs:- Less Wrong- Slate Star Codex- Marginal RevolutionYell at us at...
2020-07-291h 10Increments
Increments#7 - Philosophy of Probability II: Existential RisksBack down to earth we go! Or try to, at least. In this episode Ben and Vaden attempt to ground their previous discussion on the philosophy of probability by focusing on a real-world example, namely the book The Precipice by Toby Ord, recently featured on the Making Sense podcast. Vaden believes in arguments, and Ben argues for beliefs. Quotes"A common approach to estimating the chance of an unprecedented event with earth-shaking consequences is to take a skeptical stance: to start with an extremely small probability and only raise it from there when a...
2020-07-071h 37Increments
Increments#6 - Philosophy of Probability I: IntroductionDon't leave yet - we swear this will be more interesting than it sounds ... ... But a drink will definitely help. Ben and Vaden dive into the interpretations behind probability. What do people mean when they use the word, and why do we use this one tool to describe different concepts. The rowdiness truly kicks in when Vaden releases his pent-up critique of Bayesianism, thereby losing both his friends and PhD position. But at least he's ingratiated himself with Karl Popper. References:Vaden's  Slides on a 1975 paper by Irving John Good titled Explicativity, C...
2020-07-021h 17Increments
Increments#5 - Incrementalism Revisited: Defund the PoliceIn their first somber episode, Ben and Vaden discuss the protests and political tensions surrounding the murder of George Floyd. They talk about defunding the police, the importance of philosophy in politics, and honest conversation as the only peaceful means of error-correction. References:  https://8cantwait.org/https://www.8toabolition.com/Study which found that body cameras did not have a statistically significant effect. Errata: Ta-Nehisi Coates quote is "essential below" not "eternal under". Full quote is: "It is truly horrible to understand yourself as the essential below of your country."Thin...
2020-06-181h 16Increments
Increments#4 - The Hubris of Computer ScientistsAre computer scientists recklessly applying their methods to other fields without sufficient thoughtfulness? What are computer scientists good for anyway? Ben, in true masochistic fashion, worries that computer scientists are overstepping their bounds. Vaden analyzes his worries with a random forest and determines that they are only 10% accurate, but then proceeds to piss of his entire field by arguing that we're nowhere close to true artificial intelligence. References"Good" isn't good enough, Ben Green. "How close are we to creating artificial intelligence?", David Deutsch, Aeon"Artificial Intelligence - The Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet", M...
2020-06-081h 31Increments
Increments#3 - Incrementalism vs Revolution: Prison AbolitionBen persuades Vaden that all prisoners should be let loose. Vaden convinces Ben that he shouldn’t use the word “vista” so regularly. At least they stay on topic this time. References: What is the PIC? What is Abolition?, Critical Resistance. Is Prison Necessary? NY Times piece covering Ruth Wilson Gilmore. What is Prison Abolition, The Nation. Support Increments
2020-05-251h 22Increments
Increments#2 - Consequentialism II: Strange BeliefsAn attempt to clean up the mess we made last episode. Ben still doesn't figure out how not to yell into his microphone, and Vaden finally realizes what Ben was saying and it was … perhaps not so interesting in the first place? Ben, all too pleased with himself, starts yammering on about future generations. Should we care? God — we promise that next week we’ll try to stick to whichever subject we pick. References: Why the long-term future matters, podcast with Toby Ord. Support Increments
2020-05-221h 29Increments
Increments#1 - Consequentialism I: Epistemic ModestyWe attempt to talk about Epistemic Modesty: broadly, the idea that one should be modest in their beliefs when other people (with similar credentials) disagree with them. Vaden however, entirely immodestly, tries abandoning the subject because he’s scared of Ben’s forceful arguments and derails the conversation on to the entirely uncontroversial subject of which systems of moral decision making are best suited for moral progress. A flabbergasted Ben tries to keep up, but too little too late. Most of the time he's just trying to get his microphone to behave anyway. References:In...
2020-05-221h 07Increments
Increments#0 - IntroductionBen and Vaden attempt to justify why the world needs another podcast, and fail.  Support Increments
2020-05-1908 min