Shows
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Volatile Flat WeekA Volatile Flat Week2022-05-0616 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementAdding ContextAdding Context2022-05-0609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementCalm After The StormCalm After The Storm2022-05-0415 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementTwo Green Nasdaq Days Going Into The FedTwo Green Nasdaq Days Going Into The Fed2022-05-0312 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWhat To Do About Historic PessimismWhat To Do About Historic Pessimism2022-05-0212 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNegative GDP.. Now What..?Negative GDP.. Now What..?2022-05-0208 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Big Kahuna Will Provide Important Supply InsightsThe Big Kahuna Will Provide Important Supply Insights2022-05-0207 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNo Bottom YetNo Bottom Yet2022-05-0209 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Tough Market, Eh?A Tough Market, Eh?2022-05-0211 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI'm Starting To NibbleI'm Starting To Nibble2022-05-0208 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementDon't Take Your Eyes Off The FedDon't Take Your Eyes Off The Fed2022-04-2205 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThere May Be Another NetflixThere May Be Another Netflix2022-04-2208 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementSome Stocks Still Too ExpensiveSome Stocks Still Too Expensive2022-04-2210 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementHaven't Been Above Neutral Since '08Haven't Been Above Neutral Since '082022-04-2206 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWeakness Showing.. Where's The Incremental Buyer?Weakness Showing.. Where's The Incremental Buyer?2022-04-1209 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNeutral Just Isn't EnoughNeutral Just Isn't Enough2022-04-1110 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI Bought The Rip.. In SPY PutsI Bought The Rip.. In SPY Puts2022-04-1109 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Less Perplexing MarketA Less Perplexing Market2022-04-0709 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementRight Now, Only Nibbling On Downside ProtectionRight Now, Only Nibbling On Downside Protection2022-04-0508 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI'm A Little WorriedI'm A Little Worried2022-04-0108 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementIt's Probably Time For A PullbackIt's Probably Time For A Pullback2022-04-0107 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWhy This Time IS DifferentWhy This Time IS Different2022-04-0107 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementKeep Your Eyes On The Fed, And Meme StocksKeep Your Eyes On The Fed, And Meme Stocks2022-03-2908 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Rally ContinuesThe Rally Continues2022-03-2608 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementDon’t Take Your Eyes Off The FedDon’t Take Your Eyes Off The Fed2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementRally Getting Steep.. Maybe Too SteepRally Getting Steep.. Maybe Too Steep2022-03-2608 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Different Market EnvironmentA Different Market Environment2022-03-2610 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNew Highs Unlikely Soon, So Now What?New Highs Unlikely Soon, So Now What?2022-03-2608 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Market Reflecting RealityA Market Reflecting Reality2022-03-2607 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementFed ClarityFed Clarity2022-03-2610 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWhere Does The Market Go From Here?Where Does The Market Go From Here?2022-03-2612 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementIs It Time To Panic? The Market Is.Is It Time To Panic? The Market Is.2022-03-2614 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPrice Instability And The FedPrice Instability And The Fed2022-03-2612 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPrice Instability And The FedPrice Instability And The Fed2022-03-2607 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Lot Occurred Today, Now What?A Lot Occurred Today, Now What?2022-03-2610 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWhat To Do In This VolatilityWhat To Do In This Volatility2022-03-2614 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEvery Time Oil Rises 50%, A Recession Has OccurredEvery Time Oil Rises 50%, A Recession Has Occurred2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI’m in, But Certainly Cautious - Remember, USA Back/Back WW ChampsI’m in, But Certainly Cautious - Remember, USA Back/Back WW Champs2022-03-2612 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Chop Is Still HereThe Chop Is Still Here2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Fed Has SpokenThe Fed Has Spoken2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWhen Everyone’s Concerned About Ukraine/Fed, You Can Win On Valuation And ProductWhen Everyone’s Concerned About Ukraine/Fed, You Can Win On Valuation And Product2022-03-2611 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Waters Remain ChoppyThe Waters Remain Choppy2022-03-2606 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPutting Some Cash To WorkPutting Some Cash To Work2022-03-2613 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPutin Has Lied, I’m Remaining PatientPutin Has Lied, I’m Remaining Patient2022-03-2606 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPatience Still RequiredPatience Still Required2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementPatience Is Still Warranted. Waiting For A Better Pitch.Patience Is Still Warranted. Waiting For A Better Pitch.2022-03-2609 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementAnother Phase Of Patience, But Mostly InvestedAnother Phase Of Patience, But Mostly Invested2022-03-2604 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWe Got What We Were Looking For - Now What?We Got What We Were Looking For - Now What?2022-03-2611 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementOne More Day Until CPIOne More Day Until CPI2022-02-0904 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Rare Patient MoveA Rare Patient Move2022-02-0908 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementAn Important CPI .. We May Have HintsAn Important CPI .. We May Have Hints2022-02-0710 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementQuite A Lot Of Movement - Straight up = BadQuite A Lot Of Movement - Straight up = Bad2022-02-0210 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementVolatile Balance In The ForceVolatile Balance In The Force2022-02-0110 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementWorst January AvoidedWorst January Avoided2022-01-3106 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementYields Flat Since FedYields Flat Since Fed2022-01-3108 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Period Of Digestion, But Nothing ExtremeA Period Of Digestion, But Nothing Extreme2022-01-2813 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio Management“Another Long Expansion” Is “Going To Require Price Stability”“Another Long Expansion” Is “Going To Require Price Stability”2022-01-2708 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Ton Of Noise - Frick ItA Ton Of Noise - Frick It2022-01-2509 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Bottom Is In?The Bottom Is In?2022-01-2507 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementCorrection Territory, 10x Growth Been Here For A YearThe Nasdaq has officially closed two days in correction territory. But I’m not running for the hills just yet, we made sure we were well balanced way before this.2022-01-2008 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEnergy Winning, 10x Growth Not, But HAWKISH Fed AnticipatedIf the fed is anticipated to be quite hawkish, then the potential for a surprise is on the dovish side.And I think that's likely, considering no one is talking about the "long road to normal" the fed mentioned at its last meeting.A long road is a far cry from the short cut many seem to be anticipating.2022-01-2007 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementDon't Forget To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful (Check Description)There is a particular area of the market of the market that I think presents tremendous opportunity.Read here to learn more: https://billylobue.medium.com/its-time-to-go-in-on-the-highest-risk-10x-growth-stocks-116eee177c412022-01-1308 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI Like Wayfair 75% Lower, But Don't Forget: Be Greedy When Others Are FearfulI genuinely like Wayfair's business and the products they sell, but based on their financials, I only think it's a fair price 75% lower than here.I feel this way about many businesses, and I think there are certainly some that can continue to fall. However, many businesses are also incredibly well priced, and the fear around them warrants some greed from us.2022-01-1312 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio Management"A Long Road To Normal" = Soft Landing, Or GlideJust like the good ole days, we had a day where the fed spoke and the market rallied. Powell said two things that were crucial: "A long road to normals" and we'll be in "a lot interest rate era" for a long time. This put the market at ease, as many participants, including myself, thought we may be heading back to normal quite fast. That appears to not be the case.. so we can all relax and assume a soft landing is in tact, for now.2022-01-1106 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementBubble Burst Unlikely, So Nibble On Quality, But Too Volatile To Call A BottomToday's action was quite volatile. That could spell problems for the future, as the Nasdaq touches the 200DMA for the first time since the March 2020 crash. However, there are certainly some good names being dragged down by this pullback. That doesn't mean we can jump right in and call a bottom. We have to "nibble on the way down" on names we view as quality.2022-01-1008 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementI Smell Blood In The Streets.. Apply Fundamentals To "Cathie Woods"We've had a big run in energy, and if you're like me, part of that included options which expire in January. I've taken many of my ITM January options off the table, and that's left me with some cash. When I have cash, I want to smell blood before buying. And I smell some blood in some of my favorite stocks. If the 10yr rate, a flight to safety, goes from 1.35% to 1.75%, should it really have a massive impact on a company growing at 50%+? I don't think so, it shoul...2022-01-0709 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNothing Too Crazy Going OnThe craziness seems to get washed out. The panic selling of the Nasdaq was quickly reversed and the VIX failed to close above 20. Maybe we over stretched on the Fed announcement. Did anyone really expect that tapering meant continuing to expand the balance sheet? I don't think anyone is too surprised -- they'll let bonds mature and simply let their balance sheet value leave the economy. It seems like a pretty fair and balanced approach to the current economic situation.2022-01-0604 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementMarket Reaction To The Fed Isn't Surprising UsGo back to yesterday's video, where we highlighted how we expected interest rates to rise and for this to effect MegaCap tech as a flight to safety position. In times like these, we want to achieve maximum, uncorrelated returns. So, we're focusing on the opportunities we previously took advantage of, and looking for the next batch.2022-01-0507 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio Management2nd Day Of 2022 Looks More RealisticYesterday we saw some signs of how we believe 2022 will look, but we knew one day couldn't paint the whole picture.Now two days in, on this second day we see some themes holding strong while others seem to have fallen apart, at least for now.Energy is having another strong day, and we expect this to continue for the next two Qs as OPEC has adjusted their forecast for a deficit, but I expect this deficit to persist even longer given reasons cited in the video.We also think forces that helped...2022-01-0409 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Truth Always Wins.. But Typically Takes More Than One DayThe truth always wins, and I think we saw some glimmers of that today, but 2022 may not pan out exactly like today did.I certainly think energy stocks will do well, and we are positioned for that.In addition, I think bond yields will rise, and we are positioned for that as well.But do I think Apple will go from 3T to 4T? Well, I'm not sure, even though it hit the first milestone today.It was able to do so on the heels of low rates and a flight...2022-01-0309 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementOil Down, Energy Stocks Rally Into The CloseThe local bottom may be in. I view this as a bullish signal that sellers have been washed out. They didn't come to panic today. Charts look similar to 12/20 capitulation.2021-12-3104 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Losers Of The Year Are The Winners Of The DayCathie Wood is down ~25% for the year. But she's up 3% today. And I believe this sets the theme for next year. If there is opportunity in price, it can do well going forward. We've reiterated our preference for focusing on price, not story, not momentum. Price and a longer horizon is ultimately the winning formula going forward, so look for diamonds in the rough.2021-12-3006 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEnergy Fundamentals Incredibly Strong, Don't Let Price Dictate SentimentThe price of oil is up while energy stocks are down, what gives?Let's not focus on the day to day like that, let's stick with the fundamental story.The price of oil is up from ~$38 the day Biden took office to a recent local high of ~$85.New energy production is at its lowest level since 1946.It doesn't seem like energy prices are going to crash any time soon, and are therefore likely to continue their trajectory, which led energy to be the top performing sector of 2021.2021-12-2907 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio Management2022 Portfolio Construction Thoughts And Holiday Hiatus ReturnThe last two weeks have provided us with a lot of information.Omicron was clearly weighing heavily on the market, but fears seem to have capitulated on the 20th when rates were in the 1.3 range, but made a reversal and haven't turned around since.This is particularly important because the fed also announced a hawkish taper.Many stocks are still well off their 52 week highs and should benefit from the 2022 environment, while others may present buying opportunities after some time goes on.2021-12-2813 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementSigns Of Market Sell-Off ClimaxMultiple signs indicate today was a climax point for markets. We've had two main headlines drag us down for some time - Omicron and the Fed. However, it seems Omicron has no real fundamental impact. It's significantly less deadly, and each wave of the virus has had less impact on the economy. One simply needs to look at the July wave, the wall in Oil prices, and the subsequent rise in oil prices to new multi-year highs. In addition, Sell-Off epicenter ARKK was up today after starting the morning down. ...2021-12-1707 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Tale Of Price And Level Of LoveToday's action was no surprise to those who watch this channel. It was almost like one of our buckets was perfectly developed (minus the banks). We are very heavily weighted in Energy and Mining/Materials companies. We like how well priced they are and how unloved they are. Contrast that with mega-cap tech and the semiconductor names, which have done nothing but go up for years and are overloved. We feel we've found great value in our names, and if today's reaction should hold, and if we are indeed entering a new p...2021-12-1608 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementCertainty Is BlissThe market got hit with a curveball when the fed did a hawkish pivot.The market then sold off on a double whammy from a hawkish fed and Omicron.We got some certainty on Omicron last week, which caused the market to rally.Finally, we got some certainty from the fed, and the market is now rallying again.The fed actually got more hawkish and implied more tightening, but the certainty appears to be what the market was craving.Our positioning still remains the same.2021-12-1508 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementAre The Facts Really That Bad..? (No)When you see through the noise, is it really that bad?When you study the facts of Omicron, are they really that bad? When you consider rates in real terms, with inflation at 6%, are they even positive real rates? When you consider record high consumer spending and last week being Uber's best week in history, are you really that worried about the economy? I'm not. I'm focusing on the facts, and when I do so, I feel quite confident remaining in the week-week timeframe. The day-day is prett...2021-12-1409 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementDelta Panic Lead To Multi Year Highs In Oil - Feel Pain, But Avoid Emotional TradingVery little changed factually, yet we saw a giant reaction in the market.Possibly most importantly, Omicron didn't get more deadly. However, that didn't stop Boris Johnson from ringing the alarm bells. We don't see any reason to do that over here, and if anything, would be buying the dip. I see this as a psychological dip, and we can demonstrate how it is one. Energy is taking the biggest hit today, down big even while WTI pushed into the green. It was green last night. It seems those most...2021-12-1306 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe "Cheap" Stocks Can Provide Points TooMegacap Tech has has rallied this market for several years. However, one has to begin to question their valuations. Apple is a great company and likely will be for decades to come. However, prior to the pandemic, iPhone sales were beginning to slow. There is now a report that Apple will slow production of the iPhone by 10-12m units, yet the stock rose strongly today. Given the megacap valuations, it may be fair to see the megacap stocks take a pause. So are we going to end the...2021-12-0808 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementA Stronger, More Broad, Second DayYesterday we debated the bounce vs rally question.Today we saw a stronger, more broad rally with tech participating and many growth stocks getting up off the mat. The S&P 500 has broken that negative channel we talked about yesterday. Omicron seems to experience some resistance from the vaccines. We'll see what happens from here, but I remain bullish in the week-week and month-month time frame. We're not going to panic in the day-day, the market will do that for us. It's very volatile right now, but if we s...2021-12-0706 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementIs It a Bounce or a Rally?The S&P 500 has maintained a negative trend and even with today's bounce doesn't seem to be making a convincing rally. However, there are several other indicators that give me the impression the bottom is in. If we look at the S&P 500 equal weight it looks like there is a very clear inverse head and shoulders pattern that took place on the 5 week chart indicating a bottom is in, and a strong upward move is coming. In addition, many energy stocks seem to be forming upward channels, and they were the hardest hit...2021-12-0607 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementCan One Get Bullish On A Bloodbath Day?I did not initially want to record a video today. I didn't record one yesterday. I felt that this week was being driven by nonsense - Omicron and a very well anticipated/telegraphed Fed tapering. I just wanted the volatility to shake out, and for us to stick to the facts and make it to the other side. Today was quite dramatic, so I felt the need to make another video. We've seen energy under preform throughout the year when virus concerns are high. Today it out preformed. I vie...2021-12-0305 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementLet's Look At The Facts - Not HysteriaThe market has been hit with three negative forces: the Delta wave, the Omicron wave, and moving up the taper.The Delta wave has been going on for some time already in Germany and Australia, both of which have been at ATHs in cases for over a week now. Then Omicron comes on the scene.It spreads faster but preliminary data suggests it's less deadly. So much less deadly that in South Africa it hasn't caused a single hospitalization. The American case recovered within two days after diagnosis. If it spreads faster, then w...2021-12-0109 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementOmicron May Be Bullish? Russel 2000 Rallies Into The CloseIf you go back to the earliest videos of this channel, the day before the March 2020 sell off began (in February) you'll find a IG Live video posted on this YouTube channel.In that video, I was asked about my philosophy on the market.I noticed how with the S&P hitting new ATHs, but the Russel 2000 not, and coronavirus looking funky over in China, there was a good chance we'd see a "20% chance at a major downturn or a recession."That ended up occurring, and today it looks like we may be...2021-12-0109 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementOmicron Effects, But Market Seen Variants Before, Right?The ultimate path of the virus is to trend towards being less severe with more undetectable spread.However, the market did not react as if that were the case. The market reacted as if this means we're headed back to a March 2020 situation.However, this does not seem to be the destination.The vaccines are likely to be effective against this variant, as they were for Delta before it. It also appears this variant may be less severe.With each covid wave and variant, we've seen less and less of...2021-11-2909 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Market's Covid Tide Change?It looks like the market is having a tide change with regards to how it handle's Covid.We have avoided analyzing covid too much, at least much less than the founding of this channel (in anticipation of a covid downturn, just prior to the covid sell of beginning).However, it appears the market is beginning to have a tide change towards rationality, or at least an increase in pharmaceuticals available to treat covid.Today we're seeing vaccine stocks up big.We're also seeing oil stocks up and rates rising comfortably, with...2021-11-2212 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementFor Oil: Let's Put Austria In PerspectiveThe price of oil is down on this last trading day of the December contract due to concerns around Covid.Specifically, Austria deciding to institute a national lockdown.That's a scary headline, but according to Goldman, the move in Oil is only justified if we were to take 4m barrels/day off the market.When we put Austria in perspective, it becomes clear this is not the case, and therefore, as Goldman says, this selling is "excessive."I very much agree with this take. In addition, WTI is still far from i...2021-11-1906 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementNo New Negative Oil FundementalsIn the absence of any chaos, oil is rallying.Yesterday we had a lot of noise, and big oil declines.However, none of those seem to have any impact or are coming to fruition, thus a day later, we see some recovery. The Biden administration needs to be seen as getting this oil situation under control.However, when looking at the fundamentals, that seems to be out of reach.The way we see it, headlines tend to have a short term impact, as they have the last couple weeks, and then...2021-11-1808 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementBiden Juggles Oil.. But He's An Amateur ClownAlmost to a T, the recent rally has carried on since the 2020 presidential election. That may be a coincidence, as the global economy also began to recover around that same time (and vaccines were announced days after), but there are certainly forces the current administration has enacted which have aided in Oil's rise. And one of those forces has been walked back: drilling on federal lands. As of earlier this week, the federal government is now auctioning off 80m offshore acres to any takers who want to invest money in the land and the equipment. 2021-11-1709 minBilly LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe IEA Also Says Oil Till 2050.. And Prices Were On The Upswing Prior To IdaWe reference the recent IEA study about oil consumption through 2050 lot over here.We trust the IEA to a large extent.So when they indicate the run in the price per barrel of oil may be peaking, we listen.However, we don't put all our eggs in one basket with regards to the government.And this recent report mentions nothing new, simply highlighting that the supply taken off by hurricane Ida may lead to an increase in supply and thus a fall in prices.However, prices were on the...2021-11-1612 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEnergy Rhetoric: Been There, Done ThatIn previous videos, we had defined $80 WTI as our floor over here.Today, that got tested in an interesting and volatile session for oil.We had a flurry of seemingly negative rhetoric, from covid cases rising to Schumer asking for more dumps from the petroleum reserve.However.. let's go back a little bit in time. We've already dumped 20m barrels onto the market. They market then hit new multi-year highs.We had yet another wave of covid, and the oil market quickly hit new multi-year highs after a sharp panic decline.2021-11-1509 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThere Are Some Inflation AnomaliesA year ago I would not have expected to see a YTD high in the DXY and a 30 year high in inflation.However, this exactly what we have now.This doesn't make much sense, since the DXY implies dollar strength while inflation implies dollar weakness.However, there are lockdowns beginning to occur over in Europe and Canada. So maybe it's those uncertainties that are leading the dollar up, or rather, the Euro (and others) down.This could be concerning for oil, and we are seeing OPEC now saying high prices may i...2021-11-1107 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe Inflation And Energy PictureEveryone is talking about inflation today and the market is down, does this mean we're doomed?Actually, on this channel, we've been expecting continued inflation, and we also expect that it's a "lift all boats" event.The Real Estate market, with rising input and final costs, has told us this much. Additionally, consumer spending and balance sheets are strong, and wages are up and rising.I'm not saying inflation is good, but I don't believe it creates a doomsday scenario.In addition, energy seeks to benefit from inflation. However, we're down bi...2021-11-1015 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEnergy Stocks RecoverIt was a mixed day for stocks, and you may have noticed a little more red than you'd like. After a long bull run, a day like this is nothing unusual. Tomorrow we get CPI data, and that will be interesting given what the bond market is telling us. Today we started with energy stocks down on the mat, as with the rest of the market. However, as the day progressed and the price of oil ticked up, some energy stocks broke into the green, like Exxon up almost 1% at the close. We are s...2021-11-0908 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementEnergy and Mining Stocks Rally In A Flat MarketInfrastructure is going down, and that means a bid for mining and materials stocks to build all that stuff.After thinking about it more, it may be unlikely Biden takes off the steel tariffs. One of the justifications for this bill is that the money will be used to purchase American goods.. and American steel. Tariffs are No Bueno for the American Steel industry.Energy continues to have a rally with no end in sight. The measly rig count increases are not enough to fight back against the elevated and sustainable levels of demand.2021-11-0809 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe "Paper Trader" EffectWe discussed the paper trader effect yesterday, and today we see it again.On no news we have massive positive and negative swings occurring, and we're almost becoming numb.Nothing is changing in the oil market, the supply is consistent (yet we saw a 4% peak to trough move yesterday) yet there's volatility.2021-11-0507 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementThe "Paper Trader" Who Lurks In OilThe paper trader lurks in futures markets.He causes oil to go to -$37/barrel.I argue he shouldn't exist, unless he provides some necessary liquidity function. However, is that even necessary in a commodities market, where the transactions should occur between producers and consumers of the commodity?2021-11-0408 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementOil Down Big, Stocks Not Down BigWelcome! We make market analysis nearly every day, available on many platforms. Feel free to ask questions below. Contact: https://www.card.cards/Billy-LoBue Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillyLoBue YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG8mwSUqEqlD_14Wi2Jueag2021-11-0313 min
Billy LoBue - Leftskewed Portfolio ManagementExxon Gets a Sell? With This Porsche Deal? And This Administration?There are a number of reasons why oil should continue to rise from here, and they all seem to be coming to light today. In addition, there are a number of reasons why Exxon in particular should be a good long term position, and one of the safest for that purpose. (there are higher beta names) However, that did not stop one analyst from slapping it with a sell rating, expecting oil prices to decline. We address all that in this video.2021-11-0214 min