Shows
80k After HoursClay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in UkraineIn this episode of 80k After Hours, Rob Wiblin interviews Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville about forecasting the war between Russia and Ukraine.Links to learn more, highlights and full transcript.They cover:Their early predictions for the warThe performance of the Russian militaryThe risk of use of nuclear weaponsThe most interesting remaining topics on Russia and UkraineGeneral lessons we can take from the warThe evolution of the forecasting spaceWhat Robert and Clay were reading back in FebruaryForecasters vs. subject matter expertsWays to get involved with the forecasting communityImpressive past predictionsAnd more
2022-05-261h 59
Astral Codex Ten PodcastMantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold?r=fm577 Ukraine Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me: These run from about 48% to 60%, but I think the differences are justified by the slightly different wordings of the question and definitions of “invasion”. You see a big jump last Friday when the US government increased the urgency of their own warnings. I ignored this on Friday because I couldn’t figure out what their evidence was, but it looks like the smart money updated a lot on it. A few smaller market...
2022-02-1520 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 17 w/ John Fowler: International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical ForecastingCareer paths rarely unfold linearly, and this week's guest is no exception. But his winding way in geopolitics (as he discusses) provided him with exceptional perspective which has surely informed his geopolitical chops. In this week's episode we sat down with John Fowler of International Intrigue, a newsletter covering all things geopolitics and global affairs. We talked about his circuitous route to International Intrigue, including stops to study law, join the Australian foreign service, and earn an MBA. We also chatted about some of his most memorable International Intrigue editions as well as exploring the many linkages between the worlds...
2021-07-1150 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastJuan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement | The Right Side of MaybeSince beginning Global Guessing, we have noted that interdisciplinary approaches to forecasting have often borne positive results. Whether guests have come from the world of finance, academics, or biology, their ‘outside views’ have frequently contributed to their forecasting accuracy. And our guest this week, Juan Cambeiro, is no different.In this episode 6 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay and Andrew sat down with student, biostatistics student, and Metaculus summer analyst Juan Cambeiro to discuss his background in forecasting and work with Metaculus Pandemic. Juan placed first in Good Judgement Open's 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak forecasting challenge, and is currently in s...
2021-07-081h 01
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 16 w/ Satopää and Salikhov - BIN Model of Forecasting (Bias, Information, Noise)Every forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new paper was published alongside forecasting pioneers Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers that does a great job of providing a solution.Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error...
2021-07-031h 03
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastDatscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus | The Right Side of MaybeIn episode 5 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay talks to Datscilly, the top-ranked forecaster on the Metaculus leaderboards, who only 18 months after first forecasting won nearly $50,000 in the IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 where he placed second. How did Datscilly improve his skills so quickly? What was his strategy for excelling in a competition setting? And how is he able to get to the right side of maybe before others so quickly, so reliably, and so often? Datscilly answers these questions and more, while also diving dive into a particular forecast relating to Ebola on Metaculus which he did particularly...
2021-06-171h 02
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 15 w/ Phillip Orchard - Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting MethodsHow do the biggest geopolitical risk firms approach forecasting? What’s the future of tensions between the United States and China? How hard is it to forecast far into the future? In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we sat down with Phillip Orchard of Geopolitical Futures to talk about all of these topics and more.For those who aren’t aware, Geopolitical Futures is a geopolitical forecasting operation founded by George Friedman, former Stratfor Chairman and author of The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Within the organization Phillip focuses on the Indo-Pacific, work...
2021-06-0547 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastHow Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack | The Right Side of MaybeWhat do you get when you combine a veteran superforecaster with an experienced hacker and innovator? You get our guest for episode 4 of The Right Side of Maybe!This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and frameworks, as well as Carolyn’s prediction about the Code Red worm which turned out on the right side of maybe. If you have interest in the intersection of forecasting and cyberwarfare, or want to be graced with interesting anecdotes about the scienc...
2021-06-0343 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 13 - A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine ConflictWhat’s been going on with Israel and Palestine since last Monday? How far along in the conflict are we? Is this flare-up between these two nations any different from past years?In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the conflict which we forecasted this week. Instead of answering a single question related to a potential ceasefire or death-tally, we decomposed the conflict into six questions that we felt give a good high-level view of where we are in the conflict, an...
2021-05-1856 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 11 w/ Tom Liptay and Michael Story - Founding Maby & Forecasting AdoptionHow do companies use forecasting? When will forecasting, as we practice it at Global Guessing, become more common and mainstream? What tools can I use to forecast better? If you’re curious about the answers to any of these questions, then this episode is for you!In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Tom Liptay and Michael Story, co-founders of Maby, Superforecasters, and former alumnus of Good Judgement. Maby is a forecasting platform created to help companies and investors forecast more accurately. Companies often have internal ways of forecasting revenues or mark...
2021-05-011h 02
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastHow Peter Hurford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited | The Right Side of MaybeWhen the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Hurford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns.In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Mayb...
2021-04-0839 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 7 w/ Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: Human Forest Forecasting Competition ResultsIn this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human...
2021-04-031h 09
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 6 w/ Saar Wilf: What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, BzigoIn the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of the assumptions made by some of Rootclaim's more controversial analyses including in their Syria chemical attack analysis before Saar questions some of the assumptions in our Rootclaim-based forecast in last week's Metaculus Monday's on the origins of COVID. And that's not all! in our longest episode yet we also make predictions about aliens and discuss Bzigo, one of Saar's...
2021-03-271h 24
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 5 - US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea TensionsWe review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. We also talk about what’s in store next for Global Guessing! Let us know on Twitter, Facebook, or our website if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions regarding our plans for the future of the brand!
2021-03-2046 min
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 4 w/ Ross of ARGS - Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid WarfareRoss, founder of AR Global Security, a brand dedicated to providing news and analysis about the global security landscape, joins us this week. We discussed how the rise of cyberspace will change the future of statehood, discuss the implications of China's push for an Arctic Silk Road and what the Russia-China joint moon base means for their future relations. In a later segment, we also discuss how hybrid warfare will change the nature of conflict over the next decades, among other topics in episode 4 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast.
2021-03-131h 03
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 3 - Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim IntrigueAndrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting website that has caught our attention for more than one reason.
2021-03-061h 03
Global Guessing Weekly PodcastGGWP 1 w/ Dr. Balkan Devlen - Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction RetrospectivesFor the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorporated into predictions, why forecasting has little presence in academia, and reflecting on past predictions–among other topics.
2021-02-2049 min