Shows
Contrarian Investor PremiumThursday TariffsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, March 27. Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ segment features automakers, especially $STLA , and starts at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks sold off again yesterday, reversing most of the week’s gains especially in tech land. It was not all bad however as consumer staples stocks gained ground. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0710, things appear mixed:* Stock index futures are flat, with no majo...2025-03-2708 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumHousing StartsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, March 18. Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ segment features homebuilder stocks, especially $LEN , and starts at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday — the second day in a row — but finished off the highs. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0700, things are quiet:* Stock index futures are down a tiny bit. The Nasdaq is pointing to a drop of 0.3% at the open with the...2025-03-1808 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumProducer Prices, Jobless ClaimsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, March 13. Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ segment features $KMPR and starts at the bottom of this page. State of PlayYesterday saw a rally in tech stocks as the rest of the market was left behind. Staples actually dropped with bond prices. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0705, all is quiet:* Stock index futures are flat as a board, with no major US index moving at al...2025-03-1309 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumManufacturing PMIs, Construction SpendingGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, March 3. Today’s Stock On The Contrarian Radar©️ is $CACI at the bottom of this page. Be sure to read this month’s Contrarian Portfolio update letter!State of PlayStocks advanced on Friday, all thanks to a late-day rally that came out of nowhere. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0640, it looks like risk-on is set to continue, thanks in no small part to the crypto market...2025-03-0309 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumInflation Watch WeekGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Feb. 10. Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ section featuring $NWL starts at the bottom of this page.State of PlayFresh news from tariff land, with President Trump saying he will impose 25% charges on steel and aluminum tariffs. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0700 that has impacted commodity markets:* Commodities are gaining ground. Not just steel and aluminum, but gold and silver, which are up over 1%. WTI c...2025-02-1008 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMore Earnings, Sino-US Trade WarGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Feb. 5. Happy Hump Day! Today’s Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ segment features $GOOG / $GOOGL and can be read at the bottom of this page. Be sure to read the monthly portfolio update!State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday, led by tech. There was unfortunately some bad news after the close from tech land as Google/Alphabet earnings disappointed investors. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0640, that is we...2025-02-0508 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Back in Focus: Meeting Minutes, Waller SpeechGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Jan. 8. Today’s Stock on the Contrarian Radar©️is $HSIC (see the bottom of the page). State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday after hotter-than-anticipated economic data brought fears of higher-for-longer interest rates. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, things are pretty quiet:* Stock index futures are pointing to a slight uptick at the open. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 0.3%;* Cryptos are continuing to drop...2025-01-0810 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMore EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, Dec. 10. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:52), followed by Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ featuring Google ($GOOG / $GOOGL ) at (5:50) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks dropped a bit yesterday on news of an antitrust probe by Chinese regulators into Nvidia (NVDA ) that sounds in no way to be politically motivated. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, there isn’t an awful l...2024-12-1011 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNvidia Earnings, Target’s Big MissGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Nov. 20. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:38), followed by Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ featuring $TGT and $BORR at (6:22) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday with tech the leader. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0700, things are pretty quiet:* Stock index futures are flat with no major US index moving more than 0.2% from the break-even point;...2024-11-2011 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumInflation Back on the MenuGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Nov. 13. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:15) followed by Stocks On The Contrarian Radar©️ at (6:39) feat $HOG for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday for the first time since the election. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0630, things appear quiet:* Cryptos appear to be stabilizing after dropping overnight. Or at least Bitcoin is, up 2024-11-1311 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumLeading Indicators, a Big Week for EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Oct. 21. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:30) followed by Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ feat agricultural producers $BG and $ADM for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks closed at fresh record highs again on Friday. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650, things are a bit all over the place:* Stock index futures are down a bit, led by tech. The N...2024-10-2109 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumChina Trade Balance Weighs on Commodities, Fed SpeakersGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Oct. 14. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:13), followed by Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ feat $CAT for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayChina overnight reported trade balance statistics that fell short of estimates. That is weighing on commodities markets, as we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0705:* WTI crude oil is down 2.5% to trade below $74/barrel. Copper is down 1.5%;* Stock...2024-10-1405 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMicron Earnings, New Home SalesGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Sept. 25. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (1:18) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ at (2:25) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650, things are very quiet:* Stock index futures are flat with no major US index moving more than 0.2% from the break-even point;* Commodities aren’t doing anything either. WTI crude oil is down 0...2024-09-2506 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumHome Prices, Consumer Confidence, Some EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, Sept. 24. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:32) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ at (5:06) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0655 things are pretty quiet with the exception of commodities:* Stock index futures are barely moving from the break-even point. The Nasdaq is up 0.3%;* Commodities are showing some signs of life however, with...2024-09-2408 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed WeekGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Sept. 16. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (1:52) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ at (3:29) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0650 there is not an awful lot to go on:* Stock index futures are quiet with the exception of small caps, which are moving higher. The Russell 2000 is up 0.6%;* Commodities aren’t doing m...2024-09-1607 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumConsumer Price Index, Election ResetGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Sept. 11. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:25) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ at (5:36) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0655, the outlook would appear to be mixed:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is down 0.4% with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down 0.2% each;* C...2024-09-1108 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumChina Trade, Oracle Earnings to Keep Relief Rally GoingGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, Sept. 10. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:41) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar©️ at (4:41) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday on no news with S&P 500 and Nasdaq advancing more than 1% each. Good news from Oracle ($ORCL ) earnings after the close has that stock up 9% overnight. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0655 there isn’t much to go by quit...2024-09-1008 min
American NuthouseThe Reason(s) for The Dyspeptic ContrarianWith nothing much going on in the presidential campaign this week, except for more dyed in the wool Republicans coming out for Kamala Harris, I decided to regale you with the origin story of the Dyspeptic Contrarian.You've heard me rant about a lot of this before, so please forgive me. I just figured that these things were important enough to bare repeating.There are lots of headlines as well, so please sit back and enjoy and be grateful that for all its faults we still inhabit the greatest country on Earth. 2024-09-0845 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumManufacturing PMIs, Construction SpendingGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, Sept. 3. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:19) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayIt was a quiet, long holiday weekend in the US. Now September trading is about to get underway and with it the last month of the third quarter. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, some risk-off is clearly developing in all but one area on our board:...2024-09-0307 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumJobless Claims, PMIs, Jackson Hole Kick-OffGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, Aug. 22. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (5:56) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar at (7:25) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayThe big news yesterday came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revising its annual jobs growth downward by some 800,000 jobs, or almost 30%. The market didn’t seem too bothered by this and closed higher anyway. As we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0...2024-08-2211 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumRetailer Earnings, FOMC Meeting MinutesGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Aug. 21. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:27) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar at (5:02) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayYesterday was a quiet session as anticipated but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq did drop for the first time in nine trading days. As we look at our board of indicators at 0645, things are pretty quiet:* Stock index futures are flat with the exception of sm...2024-08-2110 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumA Few Earnings to Start a Slow Week…Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, Aug. 19. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:27) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar at (6:18) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0700, all is pretty quiet:* Stock index futures are mostly unchanged. Only the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps is moving at all from the break-even point, up 0.2%;* Cryptos are dr...2024-08-1910 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumConsumer PricesGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, Aug. 14. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:35) and Stocks on the Contrarian Radar at (4:47) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday after producer prices showed more signs of dropping inflation. As we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0640, some risk-on appears to be developing ahead of the CPI at 0830:* Stock index futures are flat with the exception of sm...2024-08-1410 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumAll Eyes on Jobless ClaimsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, Aug. 8. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:36), with ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ commencing at (7:47) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks bounced around yesterday, rallying big at the open then dropping into the close. As we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0630, the mood seems to be one of caution:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, but th...2024-08-0810 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings + Fed + Payrolls = Another Big WeekGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, July 29. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:29) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ segment at the bottom of this page and (4:39) on the podcast.State of PlayStocks rallied on Friday, recovering some ground from the previous trading days. As we look at our board of indicators for signs of direction at 0645, risk on seems to be the story...2024-07-2908 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumPCE Deflator, More Volatility for StocksGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, July 26. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:55) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ segment at the bottom of this page and (6:17) on the podcast.State of PlayStocks got bounced around yesterday, with tech selling off anew. Small caps rallied however. All of this on no apparent news, though second-quarter GDP did exceed estimates, which briefly helped sentiment yester...2024-07-2609 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumPMIs, More EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, July 24. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:27) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ segment at the bottom of this page and (5:24) on the podcast.State of PlayYesterday was pretty uneventful, though the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps did manage to rally by 1%, recapturing levels from last week. After the close Tesla ($TSLA ) earnings fell short of estimates, causin...2024-07-2409 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumBiden Quits Race, A Big Week for EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, July 22. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:03) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ segment at the bottom of this page and (5:25) on the podcast.State of PlayPresident Biden finally quit the presidential race yesterday, endorsing Vice President Harris. This does not appear to have affected betting markets any. For our purposes it doesn’t have much of an ec...2024-07-2209 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumTSM Earnings BeatGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, July 18. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:04) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ segment at the bottom of this page and (4:24) on the podcast.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday as tech got beaten up. The Nasdaq fell by almost 3% for its worst day since late 2022. The selling was not broad-based however as Dow Industrials closed at fresh...2024-07-1808 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumConsumer Prices, Earnings SeasonGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, July 11. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:33) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘Stocks on the Contrarian Radar’ section at the bottom of this page and (4:30) on the podcast.State of PlayStocks put in a broad-based rally yesterday, with major indexes surging into the close to gain north of 1% on the day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs yet ag...2024-07-1109 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm Payrolls, Bitcoin Bear MarketGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, July 5. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:54) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘One Year Ago Today’ section at the bottom of this page.State of PlayWelcome back from the July 4 holiday. We had elections in the UK and Bitcoin enter a bear market after this latest turn for the worse. As we eye our board of indicators for signs of direction at 055...2024-07-0509 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumQuiet Summer Friday or Fear of ‘Higher for Longer’ Fed?Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, May 27. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:57) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks sold off yesterday as Nvidia ($NVDA ) earnings failed to carry the rest of the market. Reasons for the sell-off were not immediately obvious. Purchasing Manager Indexes came in well ahead of forecasts, which may have create...2024-05-2406 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNvidia EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, May 22. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:17) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Read about the ‘undiscovered’ AI chip stocks and be sure to check out the new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks rallied again yesterday, to close at fresh record highs (again). After the close earnings from Urban Outfitters ($URBN ) and Toll Brothers ($TOL ) kept the party going. As we look at...2024-05-2207 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMore EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, May 9. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:15) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks were roughly unchanged yesterday in another quiet session. After the close Airbnb ($ABNB ) earnings disappointed investors and the stock dropped overnight. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, risk appetite seems to be aba...2024-05-0903 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumDisney Earnings Mixed, Stock DropsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, May 7. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:41) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Disney reported earnings as this briefing was about to go to press. The results are discussed below, though not on the podcast.State of PlayStocks rallied again yesterday as investors decided no news was good news. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, all is quiet with no clear signs of direction qu...2024-05-0705 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm PayrollsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, May 3. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:00) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday and got more good news after the close with Apple ($AAPL ) earnings. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, it looks like risk-on is emerging ahead of non-farm payrolls at 0830:...2024-05-0304 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumProspects of a 'Higher for Longer' Fed…Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, May 1. Happy May Day. Happy Fed Day. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:11) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks and bonds sold off yesterday for no reason that was immediately apparent. Then there were some bad earnings after the close with AMD ($AMD ), SuperMicro ($SMCI ), and Starbucks ($SBUX...2024-05-0107 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings: Amazon, AMD, SMCI. But First Coke, McDonald’sGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, April 30. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:30) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks rose a bit yesterday in what turned out to be a pretty quiet session. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640 it looks like risk appetite is retrenching a tiny bit:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is down 0.5%. S&P...2024-04-3004 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumAnother Massive Week for Earnings. Plus Fed, NFPs…Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, April 29. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:43) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks rallied on Friday after the PCE Deflator came in as forecast. As we look at our board of indicators at 0635, there are no clear signs of direction just yet ahead of a big week of ear...2024-04-2903 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumPCE Deflator to Crash Tech Party?Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, April 26. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:02) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page. State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday after first-quarter GDP came in below forecasts while inflation data ran a bit hot. After the close Google ($GOOG ) and Microsoft ($MSFT ) reported stellar earnings and those stocks rallied overnight as a result...2024-04-2607 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumTaiwan Semiconductor Earnings Beat Fails to ImpressGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, April 18. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:35) for listeners who want to skip ahead. Be sure to check out the brand new ‘One Year Ago Today’ segment at the bottom of this page.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday for no reason that was immediately apparent. Bank of America’s call that there may not be any rate cuts until March 2025 attracted a lot of attention and may have factored in. Taiwan S...2024-04-1807 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumA Few Earnings, Fed Beige BookGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to to move markets. It is Wednesday, April 17. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:50) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks finished roughly flat yesterday after selling off early in the session. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said what should have been obvious, which is that the Fed needs to see more progress on inflation before they can cut interest rates. Perhaps because it was obvious, markets didn’t react as much as they migh...2024-04-1706 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings, Housing StartsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, April 16. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:05) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday after retail sales came in well ahead of forecasts. Bonds were sold as well as investors perhaps start to come to terms with the fact that interest rate cuts will be delayed or canceled outright. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, risk appears to once again be off th...2024-04-1606 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumGeopolitical Risk Returns, or NotGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, April 15. Tax Day. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (6:20) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayIt was not what one would call a quiet weekend as news of Iran attacking Israel broke on Saturday afternoon. Cryptos initially sold off in a major way before rebounding as the attacks did little damage and a response from Israel has yet to materialize. As we look at our board of in...2024-04-1508 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumBank Earnings, Michigan Consumer SentimentGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, April 12. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:46) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday, recovering basically the ground lost on Wednesday, after producer prices came in a little softer than anticipated. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640, there is a rally in commoditiesland to observe:* Higher prices across the board for commodities. WTI crude oil is up >1% to trade north of...2024-04-1207 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumProducer PricesGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Thursday, April 11. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:53) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday after a hotter-than-anticipated CPI, but finished off the lows. Small caps saw the worst of it with the Russell 2000 giving up 2.8%. Bonds got beat up, especially at the short end of the curve, which makes sense given what the CPI says about Fed policy. As we look at our board of in...2024-04-1105 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumConsumer PricesGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Wednesday, April 10. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:22) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks treaded water again yesterday in another uneventful session. As we look at our board of indicators at 0620, all is deadly quiet ahead of the CPI print at 0830:* Stock index futures are flat as a board with no major US index moving at all from the break-even point;* Bonds are un...2024-04-1008 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumInflation EveGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Tuesday, April 9. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:30) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks did absolutely nothing yesterday. It was a quiet trading day as anticipated in light of the dearth of known events. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, all is quiet once again on the eve of the CPI:* Stock index futures are basically flat again. No major index is mo...2024-04-0905 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm PayrollsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Friday, April 5. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:07) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday, Dow Industrials saw the worst of it, putting in their worst day in more than a year. Which is kind of impressive seeing how it was just a 1.4% drop. As we look at our board of indicators at 06 :* Stock index futures are pointed to gains led by tech. The Na...2024-04-0506 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumISM Manufacturing, Construction SpendingGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets. It is Monday, April 1. Happy April Fool’s Day and welcome to the second quarter! The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:18) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayA slow start to the week with markets in Europe and Asia still closed for Easter Monday. No such issues in the US where markets are due to open at their regularly scheduled time and futures are active. As we look at our boar...2024-04-0105 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumDurable Goods Orders, Home Prices, Consumer ConfidenceGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets today. It is Tuesday, March 26. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:33) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks closed a bit lower yesterday. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, it looks like risk on is developing:* Stock index futures are pointing to a higher open, led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is up 0.6%, followed closely by the Nasdaq (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.4%);* Cryptos are ra...2024-03-2606 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Speakers: Bostic, CookGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, March 25. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:09) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAs we look at our board of indicators at 0630, things are pretty quiet with no clear signs of direction:* Stock index futures are down a bit, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 off about 0.3% each;* Commodities are up a bit, with WTI crude oil up 0.8% to tr...2024-03-2507 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMarkets Cheer Powell AgainGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Thursday, March 21. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:32) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday after Jerome Powell’s press conference. The Fed chair didn’t really say anything new so it was a bit of a mystery why stocks rallied as much as they did, with all three major indexes closing at all-time highs. Then Micron ($MU ) reported strong earnings after the cl...2024-03-2107 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumHousing Starts, Crypto Sell-OffGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, March 19. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:45) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks closed higher yesterday but off of the highs, with most of the gains coming from tech. The Nvidia ($NVDA ) announcement failed to impress and that stock is unchanged overnight. The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies and raised rates for the first ti...2024-03-1908 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Week Arrives, With Inflation PersistentGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, March 18. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (5:30) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayFriday’s session was quiet and the weekend was uneventful, though cryptos did get whipsawed a bit. Overnight China retail sales and industrial production came in ahead of forecasts while Eurozone CPI came in exactly as anticipated. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630 that is translating to a li...2024-03-1808 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm PayrollsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, March 8. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:47) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high and Nasdaq within shouting distance. As we look at our board of indicators at about 0300 (not 0400 as erroneously referred to in the podcast), things are pretty quiet though perhaps leaning to risk-on:* Stock index futures ar...2024-03-0811 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMore Earnings, Crypto Ascent Cont’dGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Feb. 28. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:35) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayYesterday was another pretty quiet day, but small caps did advance, with the Russell 2000 adding 1.4%. After the close earnings from Beyond Meat ($BYND ) impressed investors and the stock literally doubled overnight. Consider this another sign that speculative mania is alive and well on Wall Street, keeping in mind what we sa...2024-02-2807 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumTech Rally Undercut by US Crude Inventory Build-up, MaybeGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Feb. 23. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:02) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday, led by tech, after blowout Nvidia ($NVDA ) earnings the evening prior. It was in fact the best days for stocks in more than a year. More good news came after yesterday’s close with Block ($SQ ) and Carvana ($CVNA ) earnings beating estimates. As we look at our boar...2024-02-2308 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNvidia Earnings Rescue the Bull Market, AgainGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Thursday, Feb. 22. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:05) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayAfter the close came the event we had all been waiting for, Nvidia ($NVDA ) earnings. The company beat estimates across the board and the stock moved higher overnight as a result, by 14% at last check. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640, it looks like we are in fo...2024-02-2208 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNvidia EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Feb. 21. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:56) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks retreated yesterday but finished off the lows. After the close Palo Alto Networks ($PANW ) had earnings that were pretty horrific, lowering guidance, and that stock is down 23% in the pre-market. As we look at our board of indicators at 0645, that is all weighing on tech a little bit:...2024-02-2108 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumWalmart, Home Depot EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Feb. 20, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:55) for listeners who want to skip ahead.0740: Updates with Walmart ($WMT ) earnings, second paragraph.State of PlayAs we look at our board of indicators at 0635, risk appears looks weighted to the downside:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, with small caps leading the drop. The Russell 20000 is down 0.9%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0...2024-02-2006 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Speakers, EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Feb. 5, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (5:07) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayJerome Powell was on 60 Minutes last night. The Fed chair repeated his hawkish-ish stance from the FOMC meeting last week, saying among other things that rate cuts would be slow in coming. In China, regulators made more noise about addressing that country’s stock market, which dropped to new lows last...2024-02-0509 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Day, Tech Earnings DisappointGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024. Fed Day. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:52) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayTech stocks dropped yesterday and the sell-off gathered pace overnight after earnings from Google ($GOOG ), Microsoft ($MSFT ), and Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD ) disappointed investors. As we look at our board of indicators at 0630, that is all still weighing on sentiment:* Stock index futures are pointing to a...2024-01-3110 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumPCE Deflator, Tesla Meltdown, Intel Earnings Weigh on TechGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:35) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks closed higher again yesterday, with the S&P 500 setting yet another all-time high — the sixth straight trading day that this has transpired. This despite the drag from Tesla ($TSLA ) that dropped after earnings. After the close, earnings from Intel ($INTC ) disappointed investors. As we look at our board of indi...2024-01-2610 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings, Michigan Consumer SentimentGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Jan. 19, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:44) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks advanced yesterday for the first time in what feels like awhile. Tech was the big winner as the Nasdaq gained >1% on the back of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ($TSM ) earnings. As we look at our board of indicators at 0640, it looks like this trend is poised to continue:* St...2024-01-1907 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMore Bank EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:05) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayIt’s a holiday-shortened week with just four trading days. As we look at our board of indicators at 0635, it looks like we’re due for some selling:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, with small caps leading the drop. The Russell 2000 is down 0.9%. Nasdaq future...2024-01-1607 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumQuiet Hump Day: A Good Test of Underlying SentimentGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:12) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks didn’t move much yesterday, with the exception of small caps which dropped. Today is a quiet day with virtually nothing in terms of known events. As we look at our board of indicators at 0645, things are predictably quiet:* Stock index futures are flat as a board with...2024-01-1007 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumSome Earnings, US Trade BalanceGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:11) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayYesterday saw the first major tech rally of the year, as the Nasdaq advanced by 2%+. It was actually the best day since November for not just the Nasdaq but also the S&P 500. There was no clear catalyst for this, just as there had not been much of a clear ca...2024-01-0907 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumYear-End Doldrums, M&A, New Middle East FlashpointGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Dec. 18. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (2:52) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayIt was a quiet December weekend as the year winds to a close. We just had a pretty big cross-border M&A deal come through, with Nippon Steel saying it will acquire US Steel ($X ) for some $8 billion. M&A is generally a good indicator of risk appetite but geopolitical te...2023-12-1806 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumJOLTS, Services PMIs, EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Dec. 5. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:04) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks finished lower yesterday but well off of the lows of the session. Small caps were the outlier however, continuing their advance. As we look at our board of indicators at 0635, it looks like we could be due for some selling:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lo...2023-12-0506 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumDurable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless ClaimsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Nov. 22. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (4:08) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks gave up a little ground yesterday as earnings weighed on sentiment. After the close Nvidia ($NVDA ) beat analyst expectations across the board but the stock weirdly sank in the aftermarket. It has since recovered and is now about unchanged since yesterday’s close. As we look at our board of i...2023-11-2207 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm Payrolls, Happy Days for StocksGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Nov. 3. Jobs Day. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:20) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks put in a major rally yesterday, presumably on the back of the Fed. Small caps had the biggest gains (Russell +2.5%), consistent with a broad risk-on rally. There were some disappointing earnings from Apple ($AAPL ) overnight however. The company crucially said it doesn’t expect growth for this quar...2023-11-0308 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumBank Earnings, Michigan Consumer SentimentGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Oct. 13. The Bottom Line segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:30) for listeners who want to skip ahead.State of PlayStocks and bonds retreated yesterday after a hotter-than-anticipated CPI report. The situation wasn’t helped by a weak bond auction, though stocks closed off of the lows. As of 0630 it looks like things are rebounding however:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, led by tech. The...2023-10-1305 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Speakers, Construction SpendingGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Oct. 2. Welcome to the fourth quarter. The ‘Bottom Line’ segment of today’s podcast starts at (3:23) for those who want to skip ahead.State of PlayThe PCE Deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in a little softer than anticipated on Friday but the stock market rally fizzled out to close the third quarter. Over the weekend lawmakers in Washington came were able to stave off a government shutdown exactly...2023-10-0206 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumAbout That Government ShutdownGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Sept. 25.State of PlayFresh concerns with the US consumer as credit card losses accelerate at the fastest pace since 2008. China property stocks dropped again overnight after embattled Evergrande said it would delay a debt restructuring meeting. As of 0640 none of that is really weighing on things in the US, or maybe not yet:* Stock futures are flat, with just small caps moving at all from the break-even point...2023-09-2505 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumCentral Bank WeekGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Sept. 18.State of PlayStocks sold off again on Friday, giving back all the gains of the week and finishing in the red for the second straight week. Things have been pretty quiet since as we gear up for central bank interest rate decisions, key among them of course the US Federal Reserve. As of 0630 the bond market is the only place seeing any action:* Stock index futures are...2023-09-1805 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumInflation DayGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Sept. 13. Inflation Day.State of PlayStocks dropped yesterday, with the Nasdaq ($QQQ ) all but giving up gains from the previous session. The Apple ($AAPL ) event was blah as expected. Nothing really happened overnight. As of 0630 all is quiet as we await the Consumer Price Index release at 0830:* Stock index futures are down a bit, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 off about 0.2% each;* Commodities aren’t do...2023-09-1306 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumApple 'Wonderlust', Tesla, and Risk AppetiteGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Sept. 12.State of PlayStocks rallied yesterday led by tech, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.1%. One driving force was Tesla ($TSLA ), which gained 10% on an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. As of 0640 it looks like we’re due to give some of that back:* Stock index futures are pointing lower, with S&P and Nasdaq down 0.2% each;* Commodities aren’t doing much. Copper is unchanged and WTI crude oil is u...2023-09-1205 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFed Pivot Hope-ium, China Loan GrowthGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, Sept. 11.State of PlaySome fresh clues of a more dovish Federal Reserve emerged over the weekend. China loan data overnight showed new loans growing ahead of forecasts, an indication the country is indeed taking necessary steps to help borrowers and ward off deflation. Markets liked these developments and as of 0620 we are looking at some risk-on:* Stock index futures in the US are pointing to gains, led by...2023-09-1107 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFactory Orders, Focus Turns to FedGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Sept. 5. Welcome back after the Labor Day holiday.State of PlayIt’s a pretty slow week in terms of known events. Some Fed speakers the latter half of the week are probably the lone highlight. As of 0600, all is predictably pretty quiet:* Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, with small caps leading the drop. The Russell 2000 ($IWM ) is down 0.7%. Nasdaq ($QQQ ) off about 0.3% and S&P...2023-09-0505 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNon-Farm PayrollsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Sept. 1. Welcome to September.State of PlayLululemon ($LULU ) reported strong earnings after yesterday’s close and encouragingly cited strong sales in China in raising full-year guidance. Some other positive news in China as authorities announced a series of measures to help that country’s economy. China’ Ministry of Commerce even made some friendly overtures toward the US. As of 0630 we are looking at some risk-on developing as a result:* St...2023-09-0106 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumPCE Deflator: 0.2% or BustGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Thursday, Aug. 31. The last trading day of the month.State of PlayAnother day of gains for stocks yesterday, albeit modest gains amid thin trading volumes. Still, that makes four winning days in a row and leaves the S&P 500 down just 1% for the month of August. As of 0600 all is pretty quiet:* Stock index futures aren’t going much of anything. The Nasdaq ($QQQ ) is down 0.2%. The S&P is...2023-08-3107 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumProducer Prices, Searching for a CatalystGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Friday, Aug. 11.State of PlayAs of 0630 all is pretty quiet with the exception of Dr. Copper:* Stock index futures are effectively unchanged with no major US index moving more than 0.2% from the break-even point;* Commodities are mixed. Copper is down 1.4%, which is kind of a lot. That may be due to some subdued loan growth data out of China overnight. WTI crude oil is unchanged trading at $83...2023-08-1106 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumFitch Downgrade, EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Wednesday, Aug. 2.State of PlayFitch downgraded the US credit rating after yesterday’s close, which appears to have doused cold water on some of the risk appetite that has characterized markets in recent months. As of 0620 we are looking at some risk-off developing:* Stock index futures are pointing to losses, led by the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps (-1.2%). The Nasdaq is down 1% even after positive earnings from AMD ($AM...2023-08-0209 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings, JOLTSGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, Aug. 1. Swiss National Day. Forgive the singing if you listen to the podcast.State of PlayBP ($BP ) earnings missed estimates, the latest oil major to do so. As of 0630 it looks like stocks are set to open lower:* Stock index futures are pointing to losses, with the S&P and Nasdaq down 0.3% each;* Commodities are moving a bit lower with WTI crude oil down 0.7% to trade...2023-08-0108 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumEarnings Season, a Hot July for StocksGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Monday, July 31.State of PlayIt’s a slow day but a busy week especially in terms of earnings. We did have some negative news out of China overnight, with PMIs showing a fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector. As of 0635 this morning nobody seems to care about these things:* Stock index futures are set to open roughly unchanged, with no major index moving more than 0.2% from th...2023-07-3106 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumHome Prices, Many EarningsGood morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Tuesday, July 25. Cover art by the author. More of his work is viewable at the dedicated Instagram account.State of PlayAs of 0635 all is pretty quiet. Don’t expect that to last with all the earnings:* Stock index futures aren’t doing much. The Nasdaq ($QQQ ) is the only one moving at all from the break-even point, up 0.3%;* Commodities are looking to moving higher with copper up 1.5%. WTI...2023-07-2509 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumA New Bull Market for the S&P 500Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, June 9. Happy Friday.State of PlayThe S&P 500 ($SPY ) officially entered a new bull market yesterday. As of 0630 this morning all looks quiet:* Stock index futures are unchanged with the exception of the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps, down 0.5%;* Commodities aren’t doing anything. WTI crude oil is flat, trading around $71.50/barrel;* Bonds are selling off again. They rallied yesterday after initial jobless claims came in hotter than anticipated. This morning the selling has resumed. The yield on the 2-year is up 5 ba...2023-06-0907 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumSigns of a Bottom for Stocks: Daily Contrarian, May 23Good morning contrarians!Today’s briefing and podcast were made available for free several hours after paid subscribers received it. Sign up here to receive it every morning by 0700 ETState of PlayStock futures are up as of 0615. Small caps are leading things, with the Russell 2000 up 1.2%. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.8%, roughly the same as Nasdaq and Dow Industrials. All indexes were up more earlier in the overnight session.Bonds are selling off a bit with the yield on the 10-year moving up 4 basis points to 2.82% wh...2022-05-2306 min
Modern BabylonWhy Modern Babylon & Cultural ContrarianSome philosophical reasoning behind the channel name and my actions.You can visit my social Channels:Facebook Page and ask to be part of my private group.I am on Gettr, Gab, Twitter, and other more secure channels as you get to know me.If you feel so inclined to support Cultural Contrarian, Private Membership Association through donation it would be appreciated and an honor to recognize your support.Or, visit, CulturalContrarian.org2022-05-1229 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumBlood-Letting: Daily Contrarian, May 10Good morning contrarians!Yesterday was yet another day of heavy selling on Wall Street. Stocks plummeted for the third session in a row to their lowest level of the year so far. Tech once again saw the worst of it as the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% on the day. The S&P 500 fell by 3% to dip below the 4,000 level for the first time in more than a year. The S&P is now 17% off of its all-time high. Another day like yesterday and it, too will be in a bear market.State of PlayAs...2022-05-1007 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumJOLTS, Factory Orders: Daily Contrarian, May 3Good morning contrarians!Stocks are flat in the pre-market after a nice rebound yesterday. There was some sustained buying into the close with the Nasdaq the biggest winner, up 1.6%.Today as of 0550, major U.S. indexes are right around the break-even point. Notable individual stocks making moves include Devon Energy (DVN), up 5%, and Hilton Worldwide (HLT), down 2.5%. Those are both due to earnings. Bonds are mixed this morning and the yield curve is flattening. The 2-year yield is up 5 basis points to 2.78% whilst the 10-year is flat at 2.99%. It briefly broached 3% yesterday.2022-05-0307 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumMeta/FB Earnings, Pending Home Sales: Daily Contrarian, April 27Good morning contrarians! Today’s briefing and podcast are free for all subscribers. Become a subscriber by clicking on the link below:Stock futures are rising a day after a brutal sell-off on Wall Street. Tech saw the worst of it yesterday, with the Nasdaq down 4% to slip deeper into bear market territory. Other U.S. indexes were down 2%-plus.State of PlayAs of 0620, stock futures are looking to rebound with major indexes up 1%. Among individual stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) and Visa (V) are rallying after earnings yesterday, both up 5%. Losers include Google/Al...2022-04-2700 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumNo Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks (Szn 4, Ep 12)Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.Content Highlights* Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (1:36);* The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (3:54);* The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (6:46);* The house view at Weiss is...2022-04-2032 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumThe Yield Cure Inverteth: Daily Contrarian, March 30Good morning contrarians! Today’s episode is free for all subscribers (though premium subscribers received it an hour earlier). If you enjoy this briefing, consider subscribing here:.Stocks are a bit lower after another major day of gains on Wall Street. The Russell 2000 led major U.S. indexes with 2.6% gains, followed by the Nasdaq (+1.8%), S&P 500 (+1.2%), and Dow Industrials (+1%).As of 0630, the Nasdaq is leading the drop, down about 0.6%. Other U.S. indexes are down a little less. Stocks in Europe are dropping as well, led by the DAX in Frankfurt wh...2022-03-3007 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumGlobal Uncertainties: Daily Contrarian, March 9Good morning contrarians!Stock futures are rebounding strongly after another day of selling on Wall Street. Tech is leading the move higher, with the Nasdaq up about 2% as of 0630. Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are up well over 1% as well. Europe is seeing gains across the board, with the DAX in Frankfurt and CAC in Paris up over 4% each. Commodities are dropping a bit, with WTI crude down 2% to trade around $121/barrel. Wheat is down 6%. Gold, silver, and copper are down 1% each. Palladium and aluminium are up multiple percent. Nickel remains suspended, apparently the rest...2022-03-0907 min
Contrarian Investor PremiumRussia-Ukraine, Housing Data: Daily Contrarian, Feb. 17Good morning contrarians!Stock futures are sinking over renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine. There were reports of shelling overnight as the encouraging news of a Russian pullback was refuted by U.S. officials. As of 0630, small caps are seeing the worst of it with the Russell 2000 down about 0.9%. The Nasdaq is off about 0.7% with Dow Industrials and S&P 500 pointing to a drop of 0.5% at the open.Gold is seeing bids over this news, trading about 1% higher to close to $1900/oz. Crude oil and natural gas are down however, with WTI off...2022-02-1706 min
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