Shows
The NZ Property Market PodcastCoreLogic data geek outSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With no external data releases to consume and interpret, this week it's all about CoreLogic data. Lead by the CoreLogic House Price Index for May, Nick and Kelvin discuss the results, in particular the recent decline in Auckland property values. Given the chance to go a bit deeper into the results, market drivers like listings, construction and buyer activity - thanks to Buyer Classification data for May - all help to paint the picture of what's driving (or not driving) the market right now and w...2024-06-1037 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastRBNZ not backing down from inflation fightSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase. Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make considering the f...2022-10-1040 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastLending, jobs, confidence and consenting dataSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September...2022-10-0337 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastA look back at assessing the housing systemSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system. Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect. The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty clear - land availability, in...2022-09-2737 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastNo recession, but weakness still aboundsSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness...2022-09-1924 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastFirst home buyers still out thereSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for A...2022-09-1232 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E34 - House price falls gain momentum, but…Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.Building consents have (finally) shown signs of...2022-09-0527 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E33 - Construction insight, from the groundSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.Elsewhere we released some timely...2022-08-2940 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E32 - August Monetary Policy Statement ReviewSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement. Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stories about negative equity also f...2022-08-2243 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E31 - Should first home buyers wait?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.2022-08-1536 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastGuest episode - The Australian Housing MarketSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. Key topics of interest covered are the OCR, include recent history and speed o...2022-08-111h 07The NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E30 - Value falls continue, negative equity prospects?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate caused a bit of overreaction in the...2022-08-0834 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E29 - Stats NZ CPI correction & lending insightsSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!First up this week is a correction from last week's show, where reference to the 'home ownership' portion of the Stats NZ CPI measure was incorrectly defined as including rents, rates and other costs. There's been confusion in the naming conventions and definitions but after contact from a keen listener, Kelvin provides an overview of the whole situation.Elsewhere in the property data world, the guys talk RBNZ lending data and the prospect of lending regulations changing later this year, as well as economic data...2022-08-0135 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E28 - Will bad news bring good news?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Last week, A stronger than expected CPI figure led to some economists changing their forecasts for the OCR, however Kelvin ponders whether it was necessary. He also delves into some of the detail behind the strong inflation result and of course considers whats next. Has inflation peaked?A similar question is asked regarding constructions costs, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI). The state of the construction industry remains a hot topic, which last week included an increase in the...2022-07-2535 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E27 - Further weakness and more to come?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates.Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, anyone looking for signs of the downturn moderating would have been bitterly disappointed to see the REINZ HPI showing no signs of it.From an economic perspective, Kelvin wraps up...2022-07-1829 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E26 - CoreLogic data week, plus interest rates to the foreSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Kelvin is out of isolation and there is plenty of data, particularly from CoreLogic, to chew over. Firstly the House Price Index data for June was released last week, further illustrating the embedded downturn we're in. Nick's release pondered where to from here, noting interest rates, including the official cash rate (OCR) which is being reviewed by the RBNZ this week, as a key determining factor.The other data update was the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for June, showing further (expected) falls in activity, but...2022-07-1140 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E25 - A whole lotta dataSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Plenty of data and other releases to cover this week, starting with RBNZ lending data for May. Most interestingly there was a lift in low deposit lending, but Kelvin also picks up on the reduction of interest-only lending as worthy of attention. Full article available too.The RBNZ's Chief Economist Paul Conway also delivered a speech last week, which Nick and Kelvin briefly discuss, however it has served as more of a reaffirmation of the broader state of the market than anything particularly new.2022-07-0428 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastGuest Episode - Climate Panel preview with Ivan Diaz-RaineySend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special edition guest podcast, Nick interviews Ivan Diaz-Rainey, from the Univerity of Otago.Ivan also holds a number of roles but the two of most interest for today are Director of the Climate & Energy Finance Group and Project Lead for the STRAND Marsden Fund Project. The discussion essentially forms a preview of the upcoming online panel event, which Ivan is a member of "Addressing climate change, financial stability & property", to be hosted by Bernard Hickey on the 7th of July at 12:30p...2022-06-1442 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E21 - HPI, new builds and confidenceSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In what was a relatively quieter week for property market data, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time discussing the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data and some of the resulting media coverage.It also gave Kelvin an opportunity to check out the new experimental series from Stats NZ regarding Code of Compliance Certificates (CCC) being issued around the country. This, on top of the latest building consent figures and ANZ consumer confidence release leads the way to further consideration of the vulnerable...2022-06-0737 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E20 - Heck of a forecast for the OCRSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!No surprises what dominates the conversation this week - the OCR. And not the rate itself but the forecast track from the RBNZ.How high, how soon, how much did it change compared to the last MPS and what does it likely mean for the property market, all covered off in the show this week.It's a chunky chat, with references to reports from the NZ Bankers Association and Centrix and then a wrap up of other data releases from the last week...2022-05-3045 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E19 - The Budget, Pain & Gain and the importance of buyer researchSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In an absolute bumper episode Nick and Kelvin first cover off the just released CoreLogic Pain & Gain report, providing further proof of the changing market but also a reminder of where we're at in the broader historical context of the market.Then the Government Budget announced last week did actually have something in it for first home buyers, but otherwise was of interest due to potential flow through to greater inflation.After briefly covering the latest DTI data from RBNZ and the NZ...2022-05-2344 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E18 - First home buyers suffer, values hurtingSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion.REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, particularly due to the stark index result that Wellington City is now -14.2% down from its October peak.Kelvin also provides his take on the latest Westpac Economics team release on...2022-05-1638 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E17 - Downturn sets in, vulnerability aheadSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Last week's release of the April CoreLogic House Price Index provided the strongest evidence yet, if it was needed, that the market has swung to the negative with some areas seeing the largest drops in value since the Global Financial Crisis. This, and the release of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report, leads to discussion on the vulnerabilities of the market, including our labour market, but expectations remain for a controlled downturn. But as Kelvin points out in his weekly oneroof article, the mo...2022-05-0937 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E16 - RBNZ keeping us busy againSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Once again the Reserve Bank has kept us on our toes with a number of releases in the last week. On top of lending data for March showing a continued contraction of high LVR lending (but a bounce in total lending from Feb) we also got the much awaited response to the debt-to-income (DTI) consultation feedback.The RBNZ summary essentially kicked any introduction of DTI restrictions (and debt serviceability rate floor) down the road but still provided useful insight into their read on the market.2022-05-0237 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E13 - What's to blame for increasing prices?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick is back on deck after household COVID isolation and there's lots of data and other information to review. A look back at the CoreLogic House Price Index release for March brings up a conversation around how the market performed in the last major downturn, following the Global Financial Crisis, as well as the statement that we may well reflect on Q1 this year as the tightest credit will get (for this cycle).There's also CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for March, which shows a...2022-04-1143 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E12 - Economic confidence is still weakSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick starts this week by removing the elephant in the room – he has COVID! Tough weekend, but just maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel.The guys then launch into a discussion of February’s filled jobs numbers from Stats NZ, which showed the first monthly fall (-0.3%) since January last year. This could be ominous for the unemployment rate and hence the property market, especially since the latest business and consumer confidence surveys from ANZ have remained so weak.The co...2022-04-0425 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E9 - CCCFA tweaks announced but market definitely weakeningSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Some hugely relevant data to cover off this week, and very timely, after the Government last week announced a few tweaks to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act. This followed a mini-review of the recent changes implemented on December 1, which appear to have impacted 'good' borrowers than intended or necessary. We've got just-updated CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for February, illustrating the greater impact on first home buyers as well as the February REINZ HPI data showing the broader impact on property values.S...2022-03-1433 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastSpecial Episode - Women and Property 2022Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special edition podcast, to recognise and celebrate International Women's Day 2022 (IWD), Nick and Kelvin are joined by Kristen Lunmen, founder of Hatch.The theme of this years IWD is #breakthebias and throughout the podcast Kristen provides great insight into how she's done exactly that, as well as tips for how Women can do the same, in both their career and ambitions for financial freedom.The second annual CoreLogic Women and Property report, written by Head of Research for CoreLogic AU, Eliza...2022-03-0741 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E8 - Buyers market arrives sooner than expectedSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!It’s another busy week in the property market, with a huge range of data and topics to cover. But first the guys had to cover off the sickness and accidents that hit the Goodall household over the weekend.In the property market itself, one key point of discussion from last week was February’s CoreLogic House Price Index, which confirmed the slowing trend for values – reflecting fundamental drivers such as higher mortgage rates and reduced credit availability, but also possibly a change in mindset, as the...2022-03-0736 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E7 - The future of interest ratesSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Covid may have hit the CoreLogic Research Team this week, as Kelvin and his whanau have woken up a tad worse for wear today. Unsurprisingly Kelvin still manages to get through the pod with his usual array of commentary and insights on the topical factors impacting the property market.Of course the key point of discussion is the latest RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate (OCR) review which resulted in a 0.25% increase to 1%. And as per usual, it's not always about what the...2022-02-2836 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E5 - Construction costs up, first home buyers downSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!First up this week is a recap of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI) for Q4 which was released last week and got a LOT of press. Then we review the January CoreLogic Buyer Classification data showing the first real signs of tightening credit (LVRs and CCCFA) hitting first home buyer activity.Plenty to look out for this week too, including the CoreLogic Affordability report, Stats NZ's Rental Index for January and the REINZ data release. And as always this week's '5 things y...2022-02-1433 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E4 - The tightest labour market everSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After recapping the results from the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) release for January Nick and Kelvin get into a meatier discussion on the state of the labour market, with the unemployment rate falling to another record low 3.2%.Given so many headwinds facing the market, not least the tightening of credit, in part due to the recent CCCFA (Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act) changes, a lot of focus is on the future of the employment market and economy in general.This leads...2022-02-0833 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS3.E3 - Lending data remains solidSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!December's lending data from RBNZ showed a drop in the total value but perhaps not as much as might have been expected given some of the coverage of tightening credit over the last few months. Kelvin gets into some of the detail to help make sense of the real impact of recent changes.There's also plenty of economic data, most of it strong, to review, starting with the 3-decade high inflation figure of 5.9%. Filled jobs also continued to increase - encouraging data in the lead...2022-02-0133 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E53 - Final Buyer Classification, rental index and GDP for the yearSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In the last podcast for the year, Nick and Kelvin round out all the latest data releases, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for November and Stats NZ's rental index, which provide the discussion points for first home buyer and property investor activity.Kelvin also gives his take on the big economic data which was out last week, in particular the expectedly weak GDP figures for Q3, which are then tempered by the more recent NZ Activity Index data for October and November....2021-12-2031 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E52 - 2021 review and 2022 previewSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With no major data releases in the last week, Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to do a mini-review of 2021 and look ahead to 2022. This is timed nicely with a few other CoreLogic pieces doing the same.The Best of the Best report will be public on Tuesday 14 Dec and covers a look back at how the country performed in the last 12 months at a suburb level, using a range of different measures, including median value change, median days on market and median yield.2021-12-1334 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E51 - November HPI, listings and business confidenceSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After a quick acknowledgement of Kelvin's Birthday and the incredible achievement of Ajaz Patel for the BlackCaps Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) release which, other than the usual focus on change in property values, looking deeper into the listings situation across the country.Then, a review of the latest filled jobs data (positive) and ANZ Business Confidence results (less-positive) leads to a broader discussion on the state of the economy heading into 2022, including how businesses might fare as...2021-12-0634 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E50 - RBNZ (yet again!)Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Yet again the Reserve Bank is front and centre with a number of releases to chew over. In the last week they released their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which always includes an Official Cash Rate (OCR) review as well as the October lending breakdown and they officially commenced consultation on the potential introduction of debt-to-income (DTI) caps.The OCR was increased by 0.25% - probably the cautious option, but as Kelvin discusses it's all about the forecasts and what happens next. From a DTI p...2021-11-2935 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E49 - Debt to income caps getting closerSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After running through the two big CoreLogic releases from last week (CCCI report and Pain & Gain report), Nick and Kelvin delve into the newly released debt-to-income (DTI) data from RBNZ.The data helps shape the discussion around the potential impact of the as-yet-unconfirmed caps that may apply, and plenty of investors will be affected. There's also insight direct from the market (thanks Alex Toohey from Vega) that some banks are already applying their own version of the DTI limits so the expected slowdown m...2021-11-2236 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E48 - First home buyer strength, rents and business healthSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Off the back of the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin discuss the factors leading to their record share and then consider how things might play out in coming quarters, given tightening credit conditions. Rising rents are inherently intertwined in the state of the first home buyer market, so we've been paying close attention to the Rental Index from Stats NZ. October figures weren't as strong as September but the annual rate of growth is still very topical.2021-11-1533 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E47 - CoreLogic HPI and RBNZ FSRSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick and Kelvin firstly review the Corelogic House Price Index data for October before getting into the detail of the few RBNZ releases last week.Firstly the Governor gave a speech to the Property Council, which was released to the market, alongside a paper investigating the measures of house price sustainability. There's plenty to digest, especially when you add in the RBNZ Financial Stability Report, which was released the following day. Nick and Kelvin consider the RBNZ's take on everything from the RB's r...2021-11-0844 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E42 - September House Price Index and what is a new build?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The CoreLogic September House Price Index was released last week and aside from a further slowdown in the nationwide figure, there were some mixed results below that. Nick gives his take on what he thinks is happening before Kelvin delves into the detail about what a new build is according to the Government, as defined for the interest cost deductibility tax changes.A mostly positive round up of other data releases in the last week is then closed off with Kelvin previewing the RBNZ OCR...2021-10-0431 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E41 - Reserve Bank confirms tighter lending restrictionsSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!As they regularly do, the RBNZ keeps us busy and provide plenty of talking points when it comes to the property market. This week Nick and Kelvin reflect on the August lending figures and The Bank's confirmation of tighter lending restrictions for owner occupiers.Kelvin also notes that the interest deductibility changes come into effect this Friday (1 October) without all the details, particularly around new builds, confirmed.Meanwhile there are good signs for upcoming listings from the latest agent appraisal data. T...2021-09-2738 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E40 - What's happening with rents?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Rental price data is one of the most highly anticipated data releases these days with so much focus on landlords and their costs but interpretation of the data is unfortunately not straight forward. Nick and Kelvin do their best to evaluate where things are at, but all should be clearer in the next few months.The guys also review the latest REINZ sales volumes and house price index data, which leads to reference of an explainer article published on stuff over the weekend about all...2021-09-2025 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E39 - Housing affordability as worse as its ever beenSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Housing affordability is probably the number one topic of interest for kiwi right now (yep, above even Covid-19!) and last week we released the bi-annual CoreLogic Housing Affordability report, relating to data at the end of Q2. Unfortunately the results paint a pretty grim picture for would-be home buyers, and with increasing interest rates things are also worsening for current home owners.Nick and Kelvin discuss the current situation, latest data and also cover off the August buyer classification figures which illustrate some o...2021-09-1334 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E38 - The Reserve Bank takes aim at first home buyersSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The CoreLogic House Price Index for August was released last week and while the overarching trend of the market slowdown hasn't changed the short term outlook has shifted slightly, due to the latest lockdown. But it's also worth noting what's different this time around.Once again the Reserve Bank come through with more talking points. This time regarding tightening of lending standards for owner occupiers - in particular first home buyers. There's plenty of detail to chew over, which Kelvin and Nick do....2021-09-0631 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E35 - Buyer activity, construction costs and MPS previewSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!According to the Corelogic Buyer Classification, first home buyers secured their largest (equal) share of purchases in July, but as previously discussed this is likely to change, with tighter lending restrictions ahead.This includes stricter LVR limits and increasing interest rates, which we'll know more about this Wednesday (2pm) as the RBNZ releases its latest Monetary Policy statement. It's the hottest of topics right now so Kelvin provides his preview of the decision.As always, the data and decision are so heavily intertwined...2021-08-1627 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E34 - More changes, now hitting first home buyersSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!It seems the property market is allergic to having a quiet week, with the biggest news in the last 7 days being the Reserve Bank's proposal to tighten the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions for owner occupiers further. This will impact first home buyers the most and Nick and Kelvin discuss the details of that, along with the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data (LinkedIn post here).Then the labour market statistics stormed the headlines with an incredible result where the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0...2021-08-0927 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E33 - All eyes on employment dataSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A big week of data releases in the last seven days are all in some way, shape or form linked to the potential for the official cash rate to increase at the next monetary policy statement release on August 18.More people in jobs (pre-empting a falling unemployment figure this Wednesday) and strong business and consumer finance - with yet more evidence of increasing inflationary expectations are all pushing the OCR in the same direction - up.Meanwhile a property market with strong momentum...2021-08-0231 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E32 - State of the marketSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick joins Kelvin in Christchurch to record in person for the first time ever! A look back at the previous week includes a review of the CoreLogic Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report (free to download), which provides a great opportunity to have a broad chat on the state of the market and expectations for the future. The NZ Activity Index offers up further evidence of our well performing economy, though there's still caution to be had.Then looking ah...2021-07-2626 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastSpecial guest: Rupert GoughSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a special guest podcast Nick chats to Rupert Gough, CEO of Mortgage Lab.With so much going on in the lending space Nick and Rupert discuss everything from recent value growth to the trends and impact of the bank of Mum and Dad helping out first home buyers.A review of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data leads to what's happening with investors right now, including how the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions have hindered their activity. Plus some surprise about the reaction...2021-07-1543 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E30 - Slowdown or downturn?Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest CoreLogic House Price Index data threw up a few surprises regionally - Gisborne, New Plymouth and Napier all experienced minor drops over the monthly measure. This leads to Nick and Kelvin considering whether we're in for a slowdown in growth or more of a downturn in values. A recent report from S&P ratings suggested there's a 1 in 3 chance of a correction too, so the guys chat what sort of environment could lead to that happening.From an economic perspective most of...2021-07-0525 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E27 - Buyer activity, listings and inflation 101Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a slightly shorter pod than usual, Nick and Kelvin review the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data, showing investor activity further reducing in May. While the drop is likely more attributable to the return of the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) limits, the interest deductibility changes for investors also comes up, especially off the back of the 143 page discussion document released by the Government.Kelvin also takes a look at the latest data of how many properties are listed for sale, and the flow of p...2021-06-1424 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E26 - May House Price Index and stories from the roadSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a quieter week for data releases Nick and Kelvin share a few anecdotal stories from a week of travel alongside Bayleys and Centuria. Kelvin provides some insight into the aftermath of the Canterbury floods as well as the latest on his personal new build, plus his take on 'the vibe from the road' after speaking with investors around the country.The CoreLogic HPI was the main data release of the week though and off the back of this Nick did an interview w...2021-06-0824 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E25 - Reviewing the RBNZ Monetary Policy StatementSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Last week the Reserve Bank released it's latest Monetary Policy Statement and it provided plenty to chew over from a property perspective so Nick and Kelvin dedicate the majority of this week's podcast to it.Kelvin also covers off recent and upcoming economic data, including filled jobs and confidence data, while Nick previews the imminent CoreLogic House Price Index release and rounds out the latest read on the early market indicators data which has now been retired.And lastly, Nick touches on the...2021-05-3128 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E23 - Assessing the impact of Government changesSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With a bit more data available since the Government's bold changes announced on March 23, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over it all to assess any changes in behaviour. The banks are also making adjustments to their serviceability calculations, with ANZ the first to advise a reduction in rental income able to be used in income calculations for borrowing, which according to Ed from Opes will reduce the total amount investors can borrow by up to 15%.Kelvin also provides a high level overview o...2021-05-1726 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E22 - CoreLogic HPI and RBNZ FSRSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Off the back of the release of the CoreLogic House Price Index last week, Nick takes the opportunity to evaluate the performance of the market since the big Government announcement on March 23. The impact on property values is hard to assess, but other measures of market activity are very revealing in terms of a lack of reaction, despite commentary otherwise.(and minor correction, Nick mentions the market potentially switching to a sellers' market - he of course means a buyers' market!)Then Kelvin...2021-05-1030 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E21 - Strong lending and confident, employed peopleSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick is back from holiday to recap a busy past week as well as upcoming one when it comes to data and information relating to the property market.Hot off producing the flagship CoreLogic Quarterly Property Market and Economic Update, which is absolutely free to download, Kelvin gives a quick summary of the state of the market prior to the Government's housing announcement on March 23.There's also plenty of macro-economic data to recap, including lending data from the RBNZ, filled jobs...2021-05-0330 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E18 Kelvin's solo again and looking aheadSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Nick away on leave in Southland (last time it was Northland; he loves the extremes of the country!), Kelvin takes up the reins and in lieu of much data being released over the past week, he looks ahead to upcoming releases. After running through filled jobs and both business and consumer confidence, the discussion is about the mortgage lending figures for March – they’re likely to be strong, but more interest will be around the breakdown by LVR and by interest-only vs principal repayment....2021-04-2613 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E17 - Data, data, dataSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Firstly, apologies if the audio isn't perfect this week, we appeared to have a few connection issues while recording.Coming off the back of a big week of data releases, Nick and Kelvin recap the key features of each release.Of particular note is the Reserve Bank's update following the Official Cash Rate (OCR) review, as well as the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for March. Meanwhile REINZ also released their March statistics.Stats NZ published the latest version of their...2021-04-1928 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E17 - CoreLogic Buyer Classification and the week ahead in dataSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With a heap of data being released this week, Kelvin and Nick take the opportunity to look ahead and not back. Kelvin details what to expect with the RBNZ OCR decision on Wednesday, with CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for March helping to set the scene.From an economic perspective there's also migration data to be released, as well as the NZ Activity Index, measuring economic activity. Plus Kelvin gives praise to the RBNZ banking dashboard and the data he'll be checking for when it's updated...2021-04-1230 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E15 - CoreLogic HPI, lending data and construction sector healthSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The analysis of the potential impact of the removal of interest deductability for property investors continues with a data-focussed look into the immediate cost increase facing current owners. As Nick explains, it should be relatively limited in the short term.Part of the reason is due to the exceptional growth in the market, expecially in the last year or two. And as Nick mentions, according to the latest CoreLogic house price index results, the growth is evident across the country.Kelvin then reviews...2021-04-0638 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E12 - Investor activity and the likelihood of a restriction on interest only lendingSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Off the back of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data, showing further strengtth in investor activity, Nick and Kelvin have a wide ranging discussion about the potential of further restrictions on their activity, especially on interest only lending. There's a lot to consider, including a look across the Tasman to what happened when they restricted these loan types, as well as a stock take of the current state of play here in NZ.All eyes and ears are therefore on the Government's announcement i...2021-03-2230 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E10 - Investor activity, Business/Economic run-down and February sales volumesSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin review the latest Corelogic Buyer Classification data for February. With investor activity remaining elevated, the discussion covers the rush before the return of the loan-to-valuation ratio limits as well as the potential of restrictions on interest only loans. A look across the Tasman may offer some insight into what impact the restrictions may have.From an economic perspective, the latest business confidence surveys show promise but there are reasons to be cautious in the lead up to the release of...2021-03-1531 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E9 - Market slowdown ahead and encouraging construction signsSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin review the Corelogic House Price Index release from last week. In general the results showed continued momentum in the market, however a blip in the Tauranga index raised questions on whether the expected slowdown is already upon us.Then Kelvin reviews the latest economic data releases, with a particular focus on the construction industry, followed by the regular check in on the immediate market health through the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators. And to round out the pod, the g...2021-03-0831 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E8 - The Government advises the RBNZ to take house prices into accountSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the big news of last week - that the Reserve Bank must take house prices into account when setting their policy. The RBNZ also released their first Monetary Policy Statement for the year, which Kelvin reviews and considers where-to for interest rates.The CoreLogic Affordability Report was released last week, illustrating the difficulty for first home buyers to get into the market. Kelvin provides a few high level insights but data for every city and town in t...2021-03-0128 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E7 - January sales, affordability report preview and weaker economic activitySend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin provide their take on the latest sales data for January, showing relatively low activity outside of Auckland.A key release this week is the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report so Kelvin provides a preview of that ahead of the official release on Wed/Thur.There's also a bit more discussion around the reintroduction of the loan-to-value ratio restrictions as coverage of it in the media increases.Then, from an economic perspective the NZ Activity Index for January...2021-02-2229 minThe NZ Property Market PodcastS2.E5 - RBNZ confirms return of LVR restrictions, Labour market stats and the CoreLogic HPISend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A mid-podcast announcement from the RBNZ regarding the return of the LVR restrictions has Nick and Kelvin providing their 'live reaction'. With the proposed increase to 40% deposit requirement for investors from 1 May 2021 it aligns with most expectations and will likely lead to a slowing of property value growth from the middle of the year.Before then Kelvin makes mention of the surprisingly strong labour market figures for Q4 2020, as unemployment dropped to 4.9% (from 5.3% in Q3).There's also the Corelogic House Price Index data...2021-02-0937 min