Shows
Insights NowEquity research insights: Key analyst takeaways & top investor questionsWatch the video version of YouTube.
In our thirteenth season of Insights Now, we delved into the research that informed our portfolio managers' investment strategies. Gabriela Santos engaged in insightful discussions with top-tier buy-side equity research analysts from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, covering a diverse array of sectors such as semiconductors, payments and fintech, industrials, utilities, healthcare, and financials. For the last episode of the season, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, and David Kelly, our Chief Global Strategist, reflected on the most memorable highlights from that season's extensive conversations. Additionally, they answered the t...2025-05-0220 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: Tech-driven alternative investmentWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the transformative landscape of venture and growth equity investing with a focus on technology and healthcare. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Patrick McGoldrick, Managing Partner of J.P. Morgan Private Capital, to discuss the evolution and current landscape of venture capital.
The conversation highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of venture capital, the importance of skilled management and the strategic approach J.P. Morgan employs in identifying investment opportunities.
Jo...2025-04-1020 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: Opportunities in global forestry and timberWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we explore the world of timber as an alternative investment asset class. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Angela Davis, President of Campbell Global, a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to explore the unique benefits and opportunities timber offers to investors.
The discussion covers the perpetual lifecycle of timber forestry, the global footprint of Campbell Global’s forest management and the sustainable nature of timber as a climate-friendly product. The conversation also tou...2025-03-2121 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Building an investment plan with alternativesWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we explore the dynamic world of alternative investments and their increasing accessibility to a broader range of investors. As these asset classes become more mainstream, we discuss their role in diversifying portfolios and enhancing returns.
Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by David Lebovitz, Managing Director and Strategist at the Multi-Asset Solutions Group, to discuss the inception and evolution of the Guide to Alternatives. They delve into the structure and importance of alternative investments, the i...2025-03-0620 min
Insights NowDoes it pay to invest in payments?Watch the video version on YouTube.
When people think of the financial sector, they typically think of boring businesses like banks or insurance companies. But the ongoing global shift to electronic payments has created a new, growthier industry of financial technology companies. These businesses tend to feature recurring revenues, high free cash flow, and low capital expenditures. The financial services sector, which houses Visa and Mastercard, returned 28% last year, while the consumer finances sector, home to credit card companies like American Express and Capital One, returned 55%, outperforming the Magnificent 7. Continued growth in consumer spending, a steeper yield c...2025-02-1318 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Institutional strategies in alternative assetsWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the evolving landscape of alternative investments and their growing role in institutional portfolios. As the world of alternative investing becomes more accessible, we’ll explore how institutions have historically leveraged these assets for diversification and enhanced returns. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor within our North America Institutional business, to discuss key themes such as vintage year diversification, liquidity considerations, and the importance of strategic and tactical asset allocation.
...2025-02-1020 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Strategic Investing Amid UncertaintyWatch the video version on YouTube.
As the U.S. economy continues its robust growth into 2025, this episode of Alternate Realities delves into the complexities of investing amidst challenges like inflation, interest rate volatility and market concentration. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Oksana Aronov, Head of Market Strategy and Alternative Fixed Income, and Hamilton Reiner, Portfolio Manager and Head of U.S. Equity Derivatives. They discuss the importance of diversification and strategic hedging in both fixed income and equity markets, emphasizing the need for absolute return strategies. The conversation also highlights the potential f...2025-01-3018 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Exploring alternatives in 2025Watch the video version on YouTube.
Despite last year's excellent returns in public markets, alternative assets are garnering increased attention due to their income diversification benefits, high equity valuations and the potential for above-trend inflation. As alternative investments become more accessible to the public, allocations to these assets are expected to rise in the coming years. This trend underscores the importance of general education and thought leadership in the field of alternative investments. This is precisely the mission of the Guide to Alternatives and the Alternative Realities podcast. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by A...2025-01-1029 min
Insights NowInsights Now 2024 wrappedWatch the video version on YouTube.
The end of the year is near, and that means everyone is comparing their Spotify Wrapped and Apple Music Replays, making the case for why their most-listened-to song is the best. We wanted to do something similar for Insights Now. That is why, for our final episode of season 12, we will reflect on some of the most important takeaways from the 23 episodes we recorded this year. From exploring the fastest-growing themes in alternatives to navigating the complexities of the U.S. election, we’ve covered a lot of ground, so stay tun...2025-01-0116 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Unlocking the potential of transport assets in modern portfoliosWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to explore the transportation sector's resilience amid geopolitical and market disruptions. we'll talk about how transport assets, like ships and planes, have shown stability during events such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The discussion highlights the sector's critical role in global trade, the impact of regulations like the Jones Act and the evolving landscape influenced by tariffs and China's economic activity.
Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Anurag Agarwal, Head Portfolio Manager for o...2024-12-2720 min
Insights NowThe “new 60/40” portfolioWatch the video version on YouTube.
In recent years, the notion of “correct” portfolio construction has been challenged and diversification has become unpopular. Stocks and bonds have shown an increased propensity to move together, calling into question the efficacy of the classic “60/40” portfolio. Moreover, sustained outperformance in select segments of global financial markets has caused portfolios to drift away from target allocations and left many investors with little motivation to allocate elsewhere. However, with a new year comes new forces driving markets, and the winners of the past may not be the winners of the future. To prepare p...2024-12-1918 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Navigating the future of infrastructureWatch the video version on YouTube.
The pandemic, geopolitical tension and climate change have revived industrial policy around the globe. In the U.S., the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPs act collectively represent the largest investment in infrastructure since the Cold War. In particular, there are significant opportunities in modernizing and expanding the electrical grid as decarbonization and data centers drive up demand. In addition to these secular tailwinds, core infrastructure’s steady, uncorrelated cash flows make it a valuable portfolio diversifier. Today, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Chris Simard, an Investment Specialist in the J.P. Mor...2024-12-1214 min
Insights Now2025: Out of the cyclical storm and into the policy fogWatch the video version on YouTube.
Despite uncertainty at the onset, 2024 is shaping up to be yet another impressive year for the economy and markets. A resilient consumer has put the U.S. on pace for another year of above-trend growth, and the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% so far, breaching $6,000 for the first time in history. That said, with a new year comes new opportunities as well as challenges. As the cyclical imbalances exacerbated by the pandemic and tight monetary policy continue to improve, economic conditions should normalize further in 2025, although a new element of policy...2024-12-0520 minInsights NowAsset allocation in the year aheadWatch the video version on YouTube.
As we usher in a new year, the investment landscape is almost certainly set to change. That’s why in our twelfth season of Insights Now titled, “Preparing for the path forward,” Dr. David Kelly will sit down with portfolio managers and strategists from across J.P. Morgan to discuss their key takeaways from 2024, and what they expect from the economy and markets in 2025. With the new year just around the corner, tune in to hear what opportunities we are most excited about, and what risks we are most mindful of, headin...2024-11-2116 min
The Learning & Development PodcastL&D and Leadership Trends with David KellyWhen we have an opportunity to understand L&D and Leadership trends from global L&D experts we should take them, right? On the eve of DevLearn, David Kelly (Chairman of the Learning Guild) gives us his perspective on the things we should be paying attention to as well as the areas we should be focusing our development on. KEY TAKEAWAYS Technology is changing the L&D landscape and we need to evolve with it, but this is something L&D has always done, the same conversations are happening the circumstances are just slightly different. L...2024-10-2942 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: Democratizing access to alternativesWatch the video version on YouTube.
On previous episodes, we’ve discussed what’s called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We’ll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternativ...2024-10-2423 minInsights NowTaxes, deficits and federal debt, “Oh my!”Watch the video version on YouTube.
The U.S election is just a few short weeks away, and many investors are picking through campaign-trail noise to decipher what policies each administration would pursue and their implications. With both Former President Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s campaigns promising hefty amounts of spending but few clues on how it will be funded, the longer-term trajectory for taxes, the deficit and federal debt is largely uncertain, but must be addressed. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt held by the public as a percent of GDP is ex...2024-10-2419 minInsights NowThe past, present and future of Fed independenceWatch the video version on YouTube.
Within our financial system, the idea that the Federal Reserve should operate as an independent entity is fundamental. Importantly, the Federal Reserve is a political institution that is accountable to Congress, but also to the public, and its independence ensures it can conduct monetary policy in a way that it perceives to be in support of its dual mandate without undue political pressures. However, some candidates on the campaign trail have expressed interest in giving other branches of government a say in the Fed’s decision-making process, meaning that this election cou...2024-10-1117 minInsights NowAlternative Realities: Navigating alternatives as an individual investorWatch the video version on Youtube.
In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay pr...2024-10-0316 minInsights NowThe ripple effects of regulationWatch the video version on YouTube.
Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues. However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society. In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts. For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory poli...2024-09-2615 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: Unlocking value in private marketsWatch the video version on YouTube.
With comprehensive oversight and deep expertise in a diverse array of investment vehicles, including real estate, real assets, hedge funds, private equity, private credit and liquid alternative solutions, our mission is to demystify these often lesser-known asset classes. By providing clear, real-world examples, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap and empower investors to make informed decisions. Our goal is to bring these complex investment opportunities to life, showcasing their strategic value and how they can be effectively integrated into a diversified portfolio to achieve long-term financial objectives.
Join...2024-09-1921 minInsights NowNavigating shifts in global tradeWatch the video version on YouTube.
As rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fallout have uncovered weaknesses in global supply chains, many nations have begun to rethink their trading relationships. U.S. policy, for example, has turned increasingly nationalistic, with recent administrations implementing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, allocating funds toward domestic development of strategic industries and proposing other protectionist measures to support domestic activity. This election season, tariffs and trade have once again found themselves at the forefront of recent discourse, with both candidates proposing a stricter stance on trade policy, but to varying degrees...2024-09-1217 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: Private equity challenges and opportunitiesWatch the video version on YouTube.
2020 and 2021 were banner years for the private equity market as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted fundraising, deal and exit activity. More recently, however, macro uncertainty and higher interest rates have put a damper on the asset class, which is highly dependent on leverage. Still, better-than-expected economic growth has supported recent performance. As companies, particularly in the Technology sector, wait longer to IPO, private equity has become an increasingly important way to get exposure to the high growth potential of early-stage companies. For decades, investors have used private equity to supplement their p...2024-09-0515 minInsights NowThe impacts of immigrationWatch the video version on YouTube.
So far, this U.S. election cycle has been nothing short of turbulent and a looming source of volatility for much of this year. With the summer now behind us and November quickly approaching, investors should more seriously consider the implications of the upcoming election, and the opportunities and risks that may arise from it. That is why for the 11th season of Insights Now, titled “The policy and investment implications of the U.S. election,” David and I will discuss topics at the forefront of this election season, and explore the...2024-08-2920 min
Insights NowAlternative Realities: The fundamentals of alternativesWatch the video version on YouTube.
In this episode:
The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a d...2024-08-2217 minInsights NowBuilding stronger portfoliosWatch the video version on YouTube.
Successful long-term investing requires both the flexibility to navigate the ever-changing market tides and an engine of long-term assets to carry you forward. In this episode, we’re going to talk about both—how investors can build portfolios to navigate volatile market environments and generate better long-term returns. Such an endeavor requires an in-depth understanding of portfolio composition, the drivers of risk and return and the right mix of asset classes that are best suited for different market environments.
In today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Corey H...2023-12-0718 minInsights NowThe economic implications of generative AIWatch the video version of this podcast on YouTube.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, particularly generative AI, appear likely to revolutionize the way we work, innovate and create. This disruption can have significant economic implications, with the most significant likely to be accelerating labor productivity, and thus economic activity, after years of stagnation.
In the first episode of our summer series Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, and Michael Albrecht, Global Strategist on the Multi-Asset Solutions Team, to discuss the broad range of implications AI may have...2023-08-0425 min
The IC-DISC ShowEp044: Returns on an Alternative Investment Class with Hayden Kelly
In today’s episode of the IC-Disc podcast, I have a great guest today, Hayden Kelly from Chicago. He is with Chicago Atlantic and they have a really interesting cannabis fund for accredited investors.
They've identified a market inefficiency because endowments, institutions, and non-profits are usually prohibited from investing in cannabis. Additionally, these cannabis companies are typically not bankable for traditional debt. So Chicago Atlantic has a really interesting debt model for accredited investors, with great collateral coverage and attractive loan-to-value ratios.
Hayden is a really interesting guy, and even if yo...2023-06-2836 minInsights NowThe bond’s eye view
As we conclude this season, which we entitled a Bond’s Eye View of the world, a lot of core arguments for adding fixed income at the start of the year still remain in place. So far, the Fed has continued to hike rates but they may, finally, be at the end of their tightening regime, and if we are at peak rates, that means now is the time for investors to lock in yields before they fall. Bonds could also provide portfolios with important diversification properties as we eye this next downturn.
So, as investors take a closer look at...2023-06-0814 minInsights NowFinding income for global investment portfoliosIn today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, portfolio manager in our Multi-Asset Solutions group at JP Morgan Asset Management. Phil manages portfolios with a global opportunity set, and in doing so is actively making decisions on how to allocate the pieces of the pie within portfolios. What's the optimal mix of stocks versus bonds? And then how do you allocate within those sleeves? Where can you get the best bang for your buck in terms of returns, while also managing risk in portfolios amidst an uncertain macro outlook? These decisions largely depend on relative valuations...2023-05-2523 minInsights NowThe muni landscape heading into a downturnAfter significant monetary tightening over the last year, the Federal Reserve has now hiked rates all the way up to a range of 5-5.25%, but this tightening cycle may finally be at a close. With elevated risk of a near-term recession, markets are now expecting the Fed to pivot to rate cuts before the end of the year. For investors, an environment where economic conditions are looking precarious, and rates may soon be headed downwards, an active approach towards fixed income exposure is particularly important. On today's episode, we're going to focus on municipal bonds, which may be an...2023-05-1116 minInsights NowCredit vs. Duration, where should you spend your risk budget?So far this year, investors have had to contend with the implications of a regional banking crisis, a still-hawkish Fed, and rising expectations for a near-term recession. With economic risks elevated, the challenge for debt investors is to strike the right balance between risk and return in portfolios, while maintaining a focus on credit quality. These two risks – interest rate risk and credit risk – can have important implications for bond performance in an environment where the Fed may soon pivot to rate cuts, but likely in response to a U.S. recession. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is join...2023-04-2720 minInsights NowNavigating the opportunities in global bondsSo far this season, we've talked about the bond market from a number of different angles and in this episode we look at fixed income as a global asset class. In our recently launched 2Q23 Guide to the Markets, we have a chart that shows that the majority of global debt is international, with the U.S. share accounting for less than 40% today. Moreover, divergent central banks and brighter growth prospects overseas paint a different fundamental landscape than that of U.S. fixed income assets. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Iain Stealey, International Chief Investment Of...2023-04-1327 minInsights NowThe regional bank crisis and its implications for bondsPlenty has happened over the last few weeks—Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, and several other pressures emerged among regional banks. These events and their implications for credit conditions and monetary policy have sent markets through a series of twists and turns and raised questions about the risk of a US recession later this year. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Kelsey Berro, Portfolio Manager on our Global Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Group, for a discussion on these issues and how it's shaped both the outlook going forward and th...2023-03-3025 minInsights NowFinding direction in fixed incomeThis episode dives into positioning within fixed income. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bill Eigen, portfolio manager for an unconstrained fixed income strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bill offers a unique perspective, as his fund uses an opportunistic go-anywhere strategy that aims at delivering positive returns – no matter what’s happening in fixed income markets. In today’s particularly uncertain macro environment, Bill offers important insights on where he’s seeing opportunities, what areas he’s steering clear from and his latest thoughts on the markets and economy.
For more insights, tune into the Notes on t...2023-03-0325 minInsights NowAre bonds really back and for how long?This episode kicks off our sixth season of Insights Now, entitled a “A Bond's Eye View", and we've decided to center this season around fixed income. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with slate of market strategists and portfolio managers to discuss the outlook for the Fed and other global central banks, the outlook for the dollar, diversifying within fixed income and how to think about bonds when positioning long-run investment portfolios.
On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Ma...2023-02-1619 minInsights NowBonds are backTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Bob Michele, CIO and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, discuss the outlook for fixed income and how investors can take advantage of opportunities.
Higher rates and rising inflation have created a particularly challenging environment for bonds this year, with the U.S. Agg. down a whopping 13% year-to-date. However, the selloff has also brought valuations down to their most attractive levels in years, and the backup in yields means bonds can once again provide investors with a reliable source of income and diversification. While economic uncertainties...2022-12-0117 minInsights NowThe future of globalizationThe global pandemic, supply chain problems and heightened geopolitical tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine have all raised questions about whether the long trend towards globalization is being thrown into reverse. Our 2023 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions, available now, features a paper that tackles the future of globalization. In this episode, Stephanie Aliaga interviews two of the authors from the paper, Dr. David Kelly and Kerry Craig, to discuss the potential future paths of globalization, and implications of a multi-polar world order for the global economy, inflation and valuations.
Episode topics: History and drivers of globalization (1:18), Russia-Ukraine (8:00...2022-11-0938 minInsights NowCross-currents for corporate profitsIn this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for a discussion on the outlook for U.S. equities and what investors can expect from 3Q22 earnings season. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand have all posed considerable headwinds to U.S. equities and contributed to the large selloffs experienced in markets this year. As third-quarter earnings season kicks off, investors are hoping to gain insight into how earnings, revenues and margins are holding up as the macro environment gets rockier. While the risks dampening...2022-10-2520 minInsights NowEurope’s energy crisis and the UK responseIn an already challenging year for markets, the energy crisis in Europe and recent fiscal actions by the UK government have rattled market sentiment and caused further disruption to currency and global bond markets. A higher reliance on Russian supply has put Europe in a particularly vulnerable position as winter approaches, with electricity prices soaring and increased risk of gas shortages. All of this, and its consequences for consumer spending and business confidence, has increased the likelihood of a near-term recession in Europe. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist, to shed...2022-10-0622 minInsights NowThe Fed: Hiking up a hill of uncertaintyThis episode kicks off our fifth season of Insights Now. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with a slate of market strategists and subject matter experts to discuss topics such as the implications of aggressive Fed tightening, the European energy crisis, equity market volatility, and the future of globalization to try to provide some insight into investing in this very stormy climate.
On the episode, we tackle important questions for investors surrounding the outlook for the Federal Reserve. After a slow start, the Fed is now reacting very aggressively to higher...2022-09-2723 min
Notes on the Week AheadThe Investment Implications of Jackson HoleWhatever else anyone may say about Jay Powell’s much-awaited speech in Jackson Hole, it had two distinct virtues. It was clear and it was brief, running to just 1,300 well-chosen words.
In the same spirit, and despite a sharp 1,008 point slide in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, it is important to be succinct in discussing both where the economy is and potential Fed policy going forward.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-08-3106 minNotes on the Week AheadA Line in the Sand on InflationThe phrase “drawing a line in the sand” has an unhappy history. In the U.S., it is said to have originated with Colonel William B. Travis, who drew a line in the sand at the Alamo declaring his willingness to fight and die rather than surrender. In 2008, following the takeover of Bear Stearns earlier that year, federal authorities drew a line in the sand and let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt. And in recent weeks, Fed officials have seemed to draw a line in the sand on inflation.
For the podbeam description, can we add the following line to...2022-08-2210 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Global Inflation WarNormally, the great challenge in talking about the global economy is finding a theme. The economic fortunes of nations are usually driven by such a disparate array of political, financial, demographic and environmental cross-currents that it is impossible to establish a framework for analysis. Twice however, in this still young century, events have unfolded to provide just such a theme as the world battled the global financial crisis in 2008 and the global pandemic in 2020.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-08-1614 minInsights NowInvesting in Troubled TimesInvestors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for an insightful conversation on...2022-07-2028 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Lag in the DragLast Friday’s strong jobs numbers came as a relief to many who feared that the U.S. economy was quickly sliding into recession. On its face, the June employment report seems to support further aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, leading to higher U.S. interest rates and a further appreciation of the dollar, and offsetting forces impacting U.S. equities.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-07-1111 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Quiet Machinery of RepairOne minor side effect of this terrible pandemic is that we have all become more educated on our own immune system. Looked at objectively, it is a masterpiece of evolutionary excellence.
The outward signs of infection are normally easy to see – coughing, sneezing and obvious fever warn other humans to keep away, while our own exhaustion makes us less mobile and thus less likely to infect. The extraordinary havoc wrought by Covid-19 is primarily due to the virus’s ability to make someone contagious even before these symptoms appear.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly...2022-07-0510 minInsights NowAlternatives in a higher rate, slower growth world2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions.
On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth.
For more information on the Guide to Alt...2022-06-3021 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Rollover Race between Growth and InflationIn times long gone by, a popular event at town fairs and school sports days was the sack race. The competitors would assemble at the starting line, each encased up to the waist in a burlap bag and gripping firmly onto its sides. At the gun, they would hop furiously in the direction of the finish line, 100 yards ahead. As a sporting contest, it lacked dramatic tension, with most of the competitors biting the dust in the first 50 yards. But it was entertaining to speculate on which brave athlete would roll over first.
For additional insights from Dr. D...2022-06-2808 minNotes on the Week AheadRecession Risks and Investment ImplicationsI refuse to believe, despite gathering evidence to the contrary, that I am getting older. This being my mindset, I am perpetually astonished by the increasing youth of my colleagues. According to the Census Bureau, the median age of an American today is 38 years which doesn’t, on its face, sound extraordinary. However, what it does mean is that most of the people I work with have only experienced two recessions in their adult lives – the recession of 2007-2009 and the recession of 2020.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-06-2211 minInsights NowThe Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural changeToday, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs...2022-06-0923 minInsights NowThe U.S. Fiscal and Midterms OutlookAs investors mull recession risks, they will also soon have to grapple with the midterm elections and how changes in politics may cause uncertainty in the economic outlook. As rates have risen on the back of Fed tightening, does this pose an issue for the government's ability to service the debt? After two years of extraordinary fiscal stimulus, what is outlook for fiscal spending going forward and what are its implications for investors?
On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist, to discuss politics and the fiscal outlook ahead of the...2022-05-2630 minInsights NowUnpacking the Tumultuous Equity MarketThe equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the Fed's rate hiking cycle on equity markets.
For additional insights on the 1Q22 earnings season, check out our...2022-05-1214 minNotes on the Week AheadSlowing Growth and the Potential for an Extended Soft LandingIn the movies, in order to convey the passage of time, a director will sometimes film a scene as the seasons quickly pass before your eyes. With wistful music playing in the background, the snow melts from trees, buds blossom, leaves rustle in the summer sun and then turn yellow and red as fall arrives. It all, of course, seems a bit quick, but no doubt the movie has places to go and hopefully things will settle down for a while and allow the plot to evolve.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the In...2022-05-1008 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Dollar in a World of WorriesIn any given year, four big exogenous forces tend to have the most impact on portfolio returns, namely, earnings, interest rates, taxes and the dollar. While the tax environment appears to be stable, in all other respects, 2022 is shaping up to be a difficult year with slowing earnings growth and fast-rising interest rates. In addition, the dollar has risen significantly so far this year, as it did in 2021 and this is having negative impacts on both portfolio returns and economic growth.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-05-0207 minNotes on the Week AheadKilling it Softly: How the Fed should Fight InflationEconomic data in the week ahead should highlight a stumble in economic growth and a surge in inflation in the first quarter. While second quarter numbers will likely partly offset both of these trends, they will remind investors of the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in trying to return the economy to a path of steady growth and moderate inflation. While some Fed officials have advocated very aggressive tightening, both the likelihood of near-term moderation in growth and inflation and longer-run disinflationary forces suggest it would be wiser for the Fed to take a slow and steady approach...2022-04-2510 minInsights NowReal Estate Booms, Busts and Structural ChangeWhile the 21st Century has seen a wide variety of housing markets with massive booms and busts, never in all these years, have there been so few properties on the market. This has fueled a surge in home prices that might look reminiscent of the 2006 housing boom. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Mike Kelly, Head of US Real Estate, to discuss the current housing market, the surge in housing costs, and the long term impacts of the pandemic on certain real estate sectors. For additional insights, visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.
2022-04-2118 minInsights NowBuilding Resilient PortfoliosThe last few months have seen a swift and significant recalibration in markets. Inflation looks to be higher and stickier than previously assumed. The Fed has shifted more hawkish, now penciling upwards of seven hikes in 2022 and eyeing a faster pace of balance sheet reduction. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss asset allocation in an environment with higher uncertainty on interest rates and inflation. In light of recent geopolitical events , we are reminded that there is always the potential...2022-04-1226 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Economy and Markets after a First-Quarter Roller CoasterA number of years ago, as part of a team-building exercise at an overseas conference, I got bullied into taking a ride on a particularly fearsome roller coaster. For someone who suffers from vertigo and is an admitted control freak, the next 90 seconds were not pleasant. Once the ride stopped, I stumbled out of the contraption. However, I could not proceed with our merry band of team-builders until I had done a serious inventory of the state of the world, starting with some rather fundamental questions.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights...2022-04-1208 minNotes on the Week AheadWhere have all the workers gone?Last Thursday, as I headed home from a conference, the car I’d booked to take me to the airport didn’t show up. Luckily there was a taxi nearby so I hopped in and discovered that, in addition to a comfortable ride to my destination, the fare entitled me to a free lecture on the state of the labor market. “The reason your car didn’t show up”, opined the retired police sergeant at the wheel, “is you can’t find drivers anymore. It’s the millennials - they just don’t want to work”.
For additional insights...2022-04-0507 minInsights NowThe Fed’s New PlaybookThe Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 and delivered a hawkish surprise to investors by way of its updated dot plot and economic projections. Since the Fed cut rates to zero in March 2020, the U.S. economy has well recovered with inflation running persistently well above the Fed's 2% target. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the new outlook for the Fed and the risks that surround their decision to quickly tighten policy. Can the Fed's more aggressive stance p...2022-03-2424 minNotes on the Week AheadSmall Paddle, Big Rapids: What the Economy Could Do to the FedDespite their best intentions, the Federal Reserve sometimes appears to be trying to steer a big boat, through violent rapids, armed only with a small paddle. The reality is that forces well beyond their control will mostly determine the fate of the economy. However, the energy with which they paddle could have a major impact on investments.
For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.
2022-03-2308 minNotes on the Week AheadGetting Going on Monetary TighteningAt 5:30AM on Saturday morning, Coach Jack posted on the team Facebook page – the training run was a go. Just as well.
The Boston Marathon is now five weeks away and as a proud member of the gasping geezers division of the Dana-Farber Marathon Challenge team, I knew we needed to get in a long run. Between Covid and the weather, training has not exactly been easy. On Saturday, the forecast was for rain with the possibility of torrential downpours. But getting wet on Saturday was a better choice than waiting any longer for ideal training conditions. Sometim...2022-03-1409 minInsights NowImplications of the Russian Invasion of UkraineThe Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought horrible human consequences, but for investors it’s also raised a lot of questions. On this episode, we review the broad implications of the Russian invasion for investors in a special roundtable interview. Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Maccarrone, equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and retired General Mastin Robeson, member of the Academy Security's Geopolitical Team, in a discussion moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. General Robeson sheds light on the current state of play in geopolitics and the scenarios th...2022-03-0935 minInsights NowSolving for Climate Change with ESGOn today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the efforts against climate change and the investment opportunities that may underlie this transition towards a more sustainable future. As the need to fight climate change has become more pronounced, sustainable investing has increasingly come into focus for investors. This episode discusses the outlook for U.S. climate spending, Europe’s energy transition as the conflict in Russia-Ukraine flares up, China and its green initiatives, and the investment opportunities in agriculture, transportation, food and water, and energy ef...2022-02-2425 minNotes on the Week AheadThe Financial Backdrop as Ukraine Waits and WorriesEvery winter, here in eastern Massachusetts, we are visited by Nor’easters. Each storm is plotted on weather maps days in advance. A low pressure area swoops down from the Rockies, gathers moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, rides up the east coast over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and then stalls in the Gulf of Maine, churning itself into its full intensity. Every storm has the potential to turn into a blizzard. But whether it does or not depends on two things: First, what is the exact track of the center of the storm and second, ho...2022-02-2209 minInsights NowInvesting in China in the Year of the TigerOn the first episode of Season 4, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what investors should expect from China in the Year of the Tiger and beyond. As China rings in the New Year, the road ahead holds substantial political and economic significance, from the Winter Olympics in Beijing to the Communist Party's 20th National Congress. China also faces substantial challenges in managing a potential property bubble, zero-tolerance approach to Covid and contentious international relationships. However, for investors, cheaper valuations and China's emphasis on growth stability with...2022-02-1022 minInsights NowInvesting Beyond the PandemicDr. David Kelly sits down with Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the investment outlook for 2022. Despite the continued pandemic, the U.S. economy saw a powerful recovery in 2021 across equity markets, the labor market, and overall economic growth. Yet in recent months, investors have had to weigh a series of risks to both economic growth and market returns: the Fed is shifting more hawkish, inflation has surged, and valuations sit at lofty levels. Looking forward to 2022, what does this backdrop mean for investing? Where are the best opportunities for tactical positioning...2021-12-2321 minInsights NowCollege Planning and 529sOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Michael Conrath, Head of Education Savings at J.P. Morgan and author of the College Planning Essentials publication, to discuss the importance of saving for college and how to accumulate these savings most efficiently. What is a college education worth against the rapid rise in college tuition over the past few decades? Can families depend on financial aid or fiscal policy to cover most of these expenses? If you can’t rely on aid, how should families invest for high education expenses? What are the benefits of saving? Tune in t...2021-12-1022 minInsights NowThe Post-Pandemic Lens on EuropeOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Europe and UK Guide to the Markets publications, to discuss the outlook for Europe. After disruptions from “Brexit” seem have settled down, the onslaught of the pandemic paved the way for a togetherness of Europe not seen in decades. The EU Recovery Fund may be just the accelerant to growth in Europe that investors have been waiting for. Still, European stocks are trading at some of their cheapest levels relative to the U.S. i...2021-11-2931 min
Green Energy Futures301A. From Niche to Boom - David Kelly and SkyFire Energy - 20 Years of SolarIn 20 years David Kelly went from being inspired by the potential of solar and eeking out a modest living selling small solar systems to becoming CEO of SkyFIre Energy a very successful solar company that has installed thousands of solar systems and is now at the center of a solar boom in Alberta. David Kelly is a solar pioneer in Canada - This is his story.
Lean more greenenergyfutures.ca2021-11-1803 minInsights NowAlternative Investments in a World of Higher InflationOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Guide to Alternatives publication, to discuss the role of alternative assets in portfolios. Investors have been increasingly interested in alternatives, but for many, this is still unfamiliar territory. How should we think about investing in alternatives vs. traditional stocks and bonds? Against a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates where the outlook for fixed income looks increasingly challenged, could alternatives be a solution? Tune into hear two of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s th...2021-11-1520 minInsights NowDo cryptocurrencies have a place in portfolios?On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the advent of cryptocurrencies and whether this new asset class should have a place in portfolios. Can cryptocurrencies achieve their fundamental goal of being a store of value and payment system? How do cryptocurrencies function as an asset class, and is there a benefit them as an allocation in portfolios? Tune in to hear Dr. Kelly’s take on the matter, and other issues pertaining to ESG concerns, regulatory risk, and the broader blockchain revolution.
2021-10-2825 minInsights NowThe Genomic Health RevolutionOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Nick Leventis, senior healthcare analyst for the Innovators strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the genomic health revolution. Healthcare spending now amounts to almost 18% of GDP and chronic conditions are on the rise while baby boomers are just beginning to retire. The need for high quality care is becoming more and more important. Genomics, or the study of genes, is making it possible to predict, diagnose, and treat diseases more precisely and personally than ever before. This technology has been key in the creation of a vi...2021-10-1515 minInsights NowTech and Equity InvestingOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Manish Goyal from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who has over 25 years of investment experience in the tech industry and manages strategies that focus on digital evolution and innovation. The pandemic accelerated years of technological adoption and innovation, with strides made in the digitization of the consumer, integration of enterprise IT, and a massive migration of business, communication, and recreation to online platforms. As we look past the pandemic to a new normal, what are the drivers for technology from here? How can productivity continue to accelerate for businesses an...2021-10-0124 minInsights NowA Long-Term Look at China’s GrowthOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the recent developments in China and how they fit into the context of China’s long term growth story. While Chinese markets were the strongest outperformers in the pandemic-stricken year of 2020, they have since experienced significant bumps along the road as a result of a new regulatory crackdown and resurgence of coronavirus cases. This has weighed on equity market sentiment and caused some steep market selloffs. Is the China investment thesis still alive and well? Other disc...2021-09-1725 minInsights NowThe Fiscal OutlookOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for further fiscal stimulus with the infrastructure bill and budget reconciliation bill making their way through Congress. Discussion topics include: details of the infrastructure bill and Biden’s green energy ambitions, expectations for the larger budget reconciliation bill, the possibility of a debt-ceiling standoff, the 2022 midterms, and the potential for higher taxes and slower economic growth as we emerge from this period of extraordinary fiscal spending.
To read more about our t...2021-09-0230 minInsights NowThe Reality of Global WarmingOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Sarah Kapnick, J.P. Morgan’s Climate Scientist and Sustainability Strategist, with a discussion on the sobering realities of climate change and the opportunities for policy and investment solutions. Discussion topics include: the UN climate body’s striking report on climate change, western droughts and the threat to food and power supply, agriculture inflation, the Biden Administration’s climate agenda, and the opportunities for sustainable investing and technological innovation to drive resilience and mitigation efforts.
Read Sarah Kapnick’s latest paper on western droughts here: https://am.jpmorgan.c...2021-08-1925 minInsights NowThe Fed’s TimetableOn today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Strategist on the Market Insights Team at J.P. Morgan, for a discussion on the Fed’s timetable for reducing accommodation as the economy shows signs of a durable recovery. Discussion topics include: comparison to the last “T-up to taper” period in 2013, technical challenges of reducing accommodation, the Fed’s involvement in MBS markets, drivers behind the decline in long-term yields, and the implications for fixed income investors.
2021-08-0528 minInsights NowInvesting as the pandemic winds downTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Michael Cembalest, two of J.P. Morgan’s most respected thought leaders, discuss the most pressing questions for investors as we head into the second half of 2021.
Disclosures
For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFID requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to...2021-07-2320 minInsights NowAsset Class: Investing with Model PortfoliosTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Ted Dimig, Head of Advisory and Core Beta Solutions, discuss model portfolios and how they can be used to benefit your clients.
2021-06-2116 minInsights NowAsset Class: Actively managing through uncertaintyTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Jeff Geller, who serves as a Chief Investment Officer of our Multi-Asset Solutions group, discuss portfolio allocation decisions across a global opportunity set.
2021-06-0415 minInsights NowAsset Class: Reflation and fixed income investingTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Andrew Norelli, who serves as a portfolio manager for several global fixed income strategies, consider the impact of a reflationary environment.
2021-05-2123 minInsights NowAsset Class: Making the most of your cash Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and James McNerny, lead portfolio manager of the actively managed JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF, discuss how to make the most of your cash in a world of low yields.
2021-05-0723 minInsights NowAsset Class: Finding income in a world of low yieldsTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Michael Schoenhaut, lead portfolio manager of the JPMorgan Income Builder Fund discuss how to achieve income in today's low bond and dividend yields world.
2021-04-2723 minInsights NowAsset Class: Growth Stocks for the Long RunTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Giri Devulapally, lead portfolio manager for the Large Cap Growth strategy here at JPMorgan Asset Management discuss opportunities in technology trends over the long term.
2021-04-1320 minInsights NowAsset Class: Understanding factor investingTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Yazann Romahi, who manages a quantitative beta strategies team here at JP Morgan Asset Management discuss the increased interest in factor investing.
2021-03-2612 minInsights NowAsset Class: ESG investingTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Wu, Global Head of Sustainable Investing here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss the increased interest in ESG investing.
Seeking long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies who are leaders in sustainability? Click here.
2021-03-0912 minInsights NowAsset Class: Opportunities in municipal bondsTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Richard Taormina, head of the Tax Aware Strategies team here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss how to protect your portfolio in a rising rate environment.
Seeking to balance tax-free income with capital preservation? To learn more Click here.
2021-02-2309 minInsights NowAsset Class: Using equity derivatives to cut risk and boost incomeTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Hamilton Reiner, head of U.S. Equity Derivatives here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss how investors can participate in the equity market.
Additional Description: Seeking to address several distinct investment needs? To learn more Click here.
2021-02-0910 minInsights NowAsset Class: The opportunity in international stocksDr. David Kelly and Shane Duffy, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss if investors should increase exposure to international equities.
Seeking to Invest in foreign developed markets and, opportunistically, in emerging markets? To learn more Click here.
2021-01-3019 minInsights NowAsset Class: Is it time for value?Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Clare Hart, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund here at JP Morgan Asset Management to discuss if investors should take a closer look at value in 2021.
Seeking lower volatility access to stock market growth? To learn more Click here.
2021-01-1411 minInsights NowA land with zero ratesTune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist, discuss how low interest rates have made the fixed income environment even more challenging for investors.
Searching for income across a variety of asset classes? To learn more Click here.
2020-12-1114 minInsights NowPower for the people: The outlook for energyTune in to hear David Kelly and David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, discuss how the energy industry is evolving over the long-term.
Seeking to deliver monthly distributable income and equity market exposure with less volatility? To learn more Click here.
2020-11-2726 minInsights NowThe Fiscal DecadeTune in to hear David Kelly and John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy, discuss the key themes and issues that are going to drive both economic growth, inflation, monetary and economic policy, and ultimately asset returns.
There's growth to be found when you know where to look. To learn more Click here.
2020-11-1037 minInsights NowBehavioral finance pitfalls and how to overcome themTune in to hear David Kelly and Global Market Strategist, Samantha Azzarello discuss the key tenets of behavioral finance that every investor should be aware of. There's growth to be found when you know where to look. To learn more click here.
2020-10-1621 minInsights NowThe 21st century economyTechnological change is, of course, the most powerful force shaping the economy of the future. Tune in to hear David Kelly and Global Market Strategist, Jack Manley discuss how the impact of technological innovations is shaping the world and the investment environment both today and in the decades ahead.
2020-09-2126 minInsights NowChina: Too big to ignoreFor global markets, there is no long-term issue greater than the growth and evolution of China as an economic superpower. Tune in to hear David Kelly and Global Market Strategist, Gabriela Santos discuss the extraordinary progress in China’s economy.
2020-09-0828 min
David Kelly's PodcastDavid Kelly's Podcast (Trailer)2020-04-2700 minNotes on the Week AheadLabeling the boxesIn his Notes on the Week Ahead, Dr. David Kelly examines the economic implications of the government shutdown, the peak of the earnings season, the January employment report, Chinese trade talks, weakening global PMIs and the first Fed meeting of the year.
2019-01-2811 min