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Mental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Game Stop Stock Unhinged: #72GameStop $GME shops mainly sold physical video games. They would also stock many resale items. The physical locations capitalized on the same type of business that comic book shops often had by selling collectibles as well. Many projected that Game Stop had a very limited future and had been cut out of the supply chain as many electronic games are simply sold online in recent years.
Hedge funds had high interest in shorting GameStop at the end of 2020. In January 2021 a long position idea existed with the idea that a pivot to in-person gaming meetings could be a way forward...2021-03-3129 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: EV Bubble Bursting: #71The Electric Vehicle (EV) Bubble is rising and appears to be starting to burst. Issuances continue to pick up. The entire basket of EV stocks that we discussed in Episode #68 of Mental Models Podcast is now DOWN 42 % (at the time of this recording). The market will fluctuate and we will likely experience a surge with the approval of the US government stimulus. At this point it’s fair to declare the EV bubble BURST!
Observing the current market is analogous to being a sea captain in the 1700’s. One has to wonder whether there is really land up ahead, or is i...2021-03-1723 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Money, genetics and your brain, lessons from “Behave” by Robert Sapolsky: #70Financial insecurity impacts our brain and body throughout human development. Stress is increased with more authority & responsibility.
Lessons from of Robert Sapolsky’s book “Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst”
For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Continue to listen to Mental Models Podcast to avoid the biases that are keeping you from making a profit in the market. Stay safe and healthy out there!
Sapolsky's book provides a bird’s eye view on how our beha...2021-03-0329 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Lessons for finance, economy, & human behavior. Book review of “Sapiens”: #68Brain and Investing lessons that we took from the book Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari (2017). An excellent read covering many surprising insights about human behavior from individuals to global institutions.
From a scientific standpoint this book highlights the unique cognitive capacity of Homo sapiens. We can imagine theoretical constructs that cannot actually exist. This tendency gave rise to our ability to create other fictions that we live by. These include monetary systems, corporations, and law structures. Group behavior and trust underlie many phenomena that we take for granted in our lives.
The book discusses the development of money, a powerful...2021-01-2932 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Play and Understand Stock Market Bubbles: #67Mental Models Podcasts predicts that this historic and unprecedented bubble will crash by the second quarter of 2021. Bubbles are driven by narratives. Bubbles have an end but timing the end of the bubble is unknown, which is the risky part, and very different than sports betting. Predictors are, volatility, age tilt, issuance, market cave, and acceleration.
How do you understand bubbles...visiting with historical features of bubbles, academic literature, lessons learned from Saberpoint Capital’s review, biases, and looking forward into 2021. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You (2017) observed the period of 1926-2014 identified 40 different bubbles, suggesting bubbles are not th...2021-01-1242 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Stock Winners and Losers heading into 2021COVID-19 has created an unprecedented impact on the stock market. There have been clear wining and losing stocks in 2020, where will these stock go in 2021? We review the uncharted stock market ahead, stocks to consider travel, #RV, #technologies, & #paper products. So much more to think about with the change that the vaccines for COVID_19 will bring - #hope for a healthier economy. For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Continue to listen to Mental Models Podcast to avoid the...2020-12-1720 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Political Theater, Psychology and Stock Market predictions for 2021: #65Analogies help when we are faced with new challenges. Current events matter for the stock market, let’s frame these current events in relationship to historical perspective of the 2016 election and the impact of the market. ‘Political theater’ impacts the stock market, with the unknowns of the last 4 years and the uncertainty of the control of the senate for 2021. The. Market is a forward looking mechanism and what is the market thinking about the future, in terms of the most positive and most negative outcomes. In reality even if you know the outcome, you don’t know the response that the mark...2020-12-0222 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Streaking Star Effect or Bias: #64A talent that you have, but will it last, unlikely! We all want that superior money earning performance to continue, and we enjoy the success of an individual over a team (Jessie Walker and Tom Gilovitch reported on it in 2020, links below). Because we like narratives and we want to be the hero of our story, just like Kolby Bryant or LeBron James were for the Lakers.
For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Continue to listen to Ment...2020-11-0923 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Mystic behind your Streak, Hot Hand Effect: #63Hot hand effect is the mystic behind your winning streak, despite all of your theorizing. There are many factors that explain the wins in the stock market, but the hot hand effect/bias is one to consider. For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Continue to listen to Mental Models Podcast for updates on the current state of the market. Stay safe and healthy out there!2020-10-2028 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Changes to Economic Landscape: #62Moving parts of the current economy has been influenced by the pandemic. This is an unprecedented time and reflects a poor experimental design. What is changing and what is holding steady, if anything? The government continues to print money, but has delayed another stimulus package. At one end the economy is being squeezed, (leisure and travel) and at the other end expanded, (home goods and home improvements). 2020 is about trying something new and innovative as we continue to adjust to the rise and fall of the impact by COVID-19 and the individual states response in opening and closing of society...2020-10-0100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Compassion & Revisit #47 Our Basic Human Values: #62Compassion and our basic human values drive us. In this episode we revisit a popular episode, and discuss values in detail from both an investing & psychological perspective. Our mental models of other people’s behavior. As the market turns…Stay safe and healthy out there!
For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE
Join Dr. Dan Krawczyk, host of Mental Models Podcast and Deputy Director of the Center for BrainHealth(Dallas TX)and Bonnie Pitman (former director of the Dallas M...2020-09-1500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Is Spotify a Good Investment?: #61Spotify changing up the podcasting distribution - does it make Spotify a good investment? Spotify is scooping up top podcasters like Joe Rogan and Kim Kardashian to enhance their reach and overall product. Mental Models Podcast is waiting on the phone call from Spotify, we are ready to join the A listers! As the market turns…Stay safe and healthy out there! For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE
Join Dr. Dan Krawczyk, host of Mental Models Podcast and De...2020-09-0200 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Investment Decisions in Levitating Market: #60How does COVID-19 continue to influence market decisions? Online and e-commerce are impacting the market, as is the upcoming presidential election. What opportunities will the stock market provide? Small cap and large cap are seeing growth, and the indices are up, despite the “wall of worry” from possible presidential change. There is a tremendous liquidity put in the market and indices are up. As the market turns…Stay safe and healthy out there! For more on best investing strategies, avoiding bias and learning about your brain BUY 5 star reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” on Amazon - link here: http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE2020-08-0500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Psychology of Disney Stock since Virus Crisis: #59What is the psychology of HOW Disney stock is traded due to #COVID-19? Disney provides ‘top notch escapism’ via multiple arms of the corporation. Additionally, psychology of Disney power is the ‘autobiographical memories’ associated with the Disney ears, Walt Disney himself, and the Disney Park experience. The stock will likely ride the COVID_19 wave despite, at least 50% of their operations having been impacted by COVID-19. Disney stock has held up; trading from about $150 to about $120. Fortunately, Disney has the ‘Castle in the sky’ AKA Disney Plus. Disney Plus is providing Disney stock with the illusion of doing well. Disney plus may become m...2020-07-2300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Where is stock market going…crash?: #58Risk is always a part of investing but even more with the unknowns of opening and closing of the economy. Another factor driving the market is the money the feds are pumping out. Also, the influx of Robinhood accounts, driven by the lack of outlet for risky behavior (i.e. sports betting) and the stimulus checks. What happens to the stock market when sports open back up and those investors jump ship? There is a gap between Main Street and Wall Street, where will it take the market? Fear, Stress, and Optimism are driving the current market. Continue to listen...2020-07-1000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Will Toilet Paper Stock Surge During Pandemic?: #57Everyone needs toilet paper! The initial increase in buying of toilet paper (AKA tissue paper) at the start of the COVID-19 crisis was likely due to a hoarding response, which is an instinctive psychological bias response found in nature. Hoarding is not always negative, in this case those that bought lots of toilet paper and hand sanitizer were more prepared. Tissue/Toilet paper made for home use is a different product, then toilet paper made for a public toilet. Although hoarding may not be continuing, more time is being spent at home has changed the needs for public vs home...2020-06-2500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Psychology of Pandemic be Physically Distant while Socially Engaged: #56Psychological research can inform our behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. How do we decide what is the most effective response and how we will act? Follow along with the research article from Nature Human Behaviour “Using Social and Behavioral Science to Support COVID-19 Pandemic Response” (link below). First, as humans we have a tribal response, and we stick with our group and take advice from our group leader. Who we listen too depends on our tribal orientation. Other factors on advice we follow, is if the advice is relevant to us - ‘think globally, but act locally’. Which can lead to group...2020-06-1200 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Psychological Timeline of Pandemic: #55Jan. - Feb., 2020 was a period of ‘psychological inoculation’, in that we have heard this before, viruses come and go, like the flu and N1H1, and we will be okay.
March - April, 2020 was a period of acknowledgment, that this virus is real and dangerous. Followed by the rapid onset of fear, resulting in a stress response. Fear is usually a quick moment that passes. That has not happened with the pandemic. Stress usually results in action, and there was some actions by individuals and governments that were surprisingly bipartisan and encouraged safety measures. Although these government responses across the...2020-05-2800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Brain Effects While Working From Home: #54Norepinephrine sends signals widely throughout the brain that move us into a task motivated stated. A brain regain called the locus coeruleus located in the brain stem is involved in the release of norepinephrine. As we shift to a more passive state, another type of brain cell called astrocytes take over (they get their name from their star shape). Astrocytes cells support neurons in the brain, and are the most abundant glial cells in the brain. A study by Yu Mu et al, 2019 (link below) with Zebra fish shows that Norepinephrine was released when they are moved to actively swim...2020-05-1200 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: COVID-19 Stock Market Rallies: #53Global economy has stalled in early 2020 due to COVID-19 and governments have provided stimuli. The stock market has rallied; SMP is up from the bottom which is the most dramatic rise of the market EVER! CONCERN: exuberance in the market does not take into account the return to normal, as there is a new normal, which is still unknown. Narratives fill the gaps of unknown reality, and the narratives are less reliable than ever before, since analogies are made in the context of experience. Many business will be gone, or have take on significant indebtedness. Largely what has driven the...2020-05-0600 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Global Protein Chain Breaking/Broken: #52African Swine Fever in China has depopulated the hog heard in China. China is responsible for 50% of global production and consumption of pork. The coronavirus was completely unexpected and has further impacted the pork market with meat packing plants closing due to workers and their family members, sadly becoming ill or dying from Covid-19. Closure of meat packing plants to protect the meat packing workers and their families is necessary and the right this to do! The amount of pork in cold storage has decreased as of the recording of this podcast from 4 weeks to 3 weeks, and may have dropped...2020-04-3000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Motivations & Basic Human Values-Part 2: #51Our basic human values drive us and drives up our oxytocin levels in our brain. Provided are applied examples of values in the investing world. We consider the basic human values by Shalom Schwartz tying together and the interesting relationships among the different values.We talk conservatism, openness to change, benevolence, universalism, achievement, and power. We discuss how these values are embedded and carried out within the networks of our brain. The pie chart of basic human values theory by Shalom Schwartz, will help you navigate Episode #51 and Episode #47: "Mental Models: Motivations That Drive You Part 1“. Listen here on the Me...2020-04-2400 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Are Analogies between ‘?’ and Covid-19 Dangerous?: #50Analogies help our brains understand a current event often using a past event, but with our brain filling in unknown gaps and creating possible dangerous inferences. Comparisons between the flue, N1H1, SARS, 1918 flu or even 9/11 are likely dangerous for understanding how society and investments will be impacted. Current events are different than past events. Analogies start forming from a ‘target analogy’, such as a believed equivalent past event, then our brains begin a mapping process from ‘source analogy’. Interested in learning more about investing, analogies, YOUR #Brain, and how we think to improve your financial gain in the market, read the...2020-04-1500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Anchoring Bias & Base Rate Neglect in Relation to Covid-19: #49How do we think psychologically about numbers? Especially in relation to the Covid-19 2020 pandemic and the impact on the stock market. Take into consideration the effect of the Anchoring bias and Base Rate Neglect in your mental model and decision making. A recession will come following the 2020 pandemic along with changes in behavior which will unmask unexpected changes. Be prepared, learn more on the topic of Cognitive Biases and how we think to improve your financial gain in the market, read “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE #learn loo2020-04-0900 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Recalibrate Biases to Cope with Pandemic: #48Biases investors need to be aware of include ILLUSIONS OF INVULNERABILITY and ILLUSIONS OF CONTROL. Due to years of investing success investors feel invulnerable and are making decisions from their mental model which needs recalibration, along with the bias Illusion of Control. For more on this topic explore FIVE STAR reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE There will continue to be an evolution to biases that impact us as the pandemic unfolds. Consider the REFLECTIVE EFFECT - the actions and beliefs investors have and are self reinforcing, we need to recalibrate things we believe to be true base...2020-03-3100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Motivations That Drive You - Our Basic Human Values Part 1: #47Our basic human values drive us. In this episode we discuss values in detail from both an investing and psychological perspective. Our mental models of other people’s behavior and our own can helps us to predict steps management might take in a company that we are considering purchasing. We discuss a variety of the basic human values outlined by Schwartz. Note that these have been examined across numerous cultures. All cultures show evidence of these values, but they are expressed somewhat uniquely- just like individuals. We have all of these values available in our psychology, but we emphasize some mo...2020-03-1800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Impulse Control and Investment Decisions: #46Do you have the will power to keep from buying that stock too early? Humans need the will power to delay gratification - how do we get it? Discipline is important to success. Walter Mischel’s, research which is commonly called the “Marshmallow Test” with preschoolers and self-control provides great insight. Video of Marshmallow Experiment https://youtu.be/Rwxf1BTyKz4. Although, discipline is the key, such as waiting to buy or sell that stock at the perfect moment. Some of the toddlers in the Marshmallow experiment who ate the Marshmallow right away, went on to have metoric careers. What is most i...2020-03-1100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Keys to Flexible Thinking and Problem Solving: #45The keys to flexible thinking come from exploring the different solutions to a problem vs. exploiting the rewards, resulting in perseveration behavior. In this episode we explore the ‘set effect’ which is linked to problem solving. An example of successful flexible thinking and over coming the ‘set effect’ is when Warren Buffet realized that investing had changed and it was time to find a new approach and move away from Net-Nets, which he had learned from his mentor Benjamin Graham.
Investing tips include discipline, awareness too changes and sticking to the circle of competence. See Chapter 8 in our book “Understanding Behavioral...2020-03-0300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Use Chunking to Conquer Memory Limitations: #44In this episode we consider how our memory systems are organized and what we can do to help become better at remembering in a variety of areas of our lives. We consider memory from a multiple memory systems approach focusing on working memory- our short-term store. Working memory has a clear limit and we can use a “chunking” strategy to group items together allowing us to remember more. We discuss the extreme versions of this tactic described by expertise researcher K. Anders Ericsson and his book “Peak” https://www.amazon.com/Peak-Secrets-New-Science-Expertise/dp/1531864880
We also discuss how you can employ tips to...2020-02-2700 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Selection Bias - Where’s Waldo?: #43Selection Bias can keep us hunting for what is most present on our mind, Waldo or the new Toyota we are planning to buy. Once we have committed to a decision we will see that specific brand everywhere. We are experiencing selection bias. Our brain is guiding us to what is most present on our minds.
“The Invisible Gorilla” book by C. Chabris and D. Simons explores this famous experiment on how your mind actually works - our intuition can deceive us. https://www.amazon.com/Invisible-Gorilla-Other-Intuitions-Deceive-ebook/dp/B0036S4EYQ
- BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE...2020-02-1900 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Salience Bias - Fear and Uncertainty: #42Be the courageous investor! Fear linked to 3 things:
1: To little information
2: Potential Threat
3: Helplessness
Investing is linked to 2 things:
1: Fear
2: Greed
The Salience Bias is linked to fear and uncertainty and your primal brain functions in your amygdala. There are 2 types of cognition 1)hot and 2)cold. Hot cognition is primal and linked to lymbic system, while your cold cognition is your rational view. Engage your investing process and training established during cold cognition and NOT during points of fear motivated by investing or hot news cycle (i.e. hot cognition).
@ 20 mins in review the Papa John Pizza stock effect...2020-02-1100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Avoid Rationalizing a Stock that is a Lemon: #41Rationalization and thesis drift is akin to wrestling with muddy pigs... it’s slippery and you will lose $$$. For investors ”thesis drift” is the tendency to rationalize bad news and come up with fresh reasons to still like a stock. Don’t accommodate your viewpoint for a group of facts that you were not previously aware of.
Consistency Bias: don’t flip-flop!
-Thank you to all who have bought our book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” - please write a review on Amazon http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE. The sales of the book support the Mental Models Podcast directly! Positive reviews on Amazon increase the l...2020-01-2900 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investment Process V: Post mortem: #40“Understanding Behavioral Bia$” follow along with book by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste).
This podcast is fifth in the investment process series. It is the planning up from the matters. #1 tip to avoid pain is to use stop loss techniques!
-BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of...2020-01-2100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Market & Macro Nonsense: #39Recap of general market trends experienced in 2019 and interpret what they might mean for the economy in 2020. The expansion is the longest we have see, we are now beyond what it occurred from 1990-2000. Growth has been tepid so it might continue. We discuss economic indicators and historical trends from the past.
BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #MentalModels
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Mental models Podcast.
Published by Busin...2020-01-1500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Investing & Behavioral Bias in an Election Year: #38How politics might influence the stock market in an election year! All of this while the standing president of the United States is under investigation for impeachment by the Senate. What are your predictions for the next president of the United States of America? Which stocks do you seeing impacted?
@ 11:30 minutes George discusses his stock pick that could be influenced by the election year and why. Listen in.
BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Dani...2020-01-0800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Holiday Message 2019 and Behavioral Bia$: #37There won't be any regular episodes of Mental Models Podcast as we take a holiday break. Regular service will resume the first full week in January 2020. In the meantime, enjoy a holiday message and we have recapped a popular podcast on Behavioral Bia$. Join Dan and George at the Center for BrainHealth, Dallas, TX on 1/23/20 as they discuss “Money and your Brain: How Cognitive Biases Impact Investing” based on their book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$" link below. Thanks to everyone for listening and we wish you and yours a happy and healthy 2020!
BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavior...2019-12-2300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investment Process IV: Analysis and Execution: #36“Understanding Behavioral Bia$” follow along with book by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste).
Fourth in the series on the investment process - with top fund manager tips of the steps of analysis and execution. Biases to be aware of are recency bias also at minute 6:58 base rate neglect - which is also discussed in podcast #28 on Bill Gates brain.
Min. 12:30 Group think biases are discussed with remedies.
Min. 1645 research has value - don’t buy the sock just because you did the re...2019-12-1100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investment Process III: Fundamental Research: #35Follow along with our book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste). Electronic version and paperback.
The purpose of fundamental research during the investment process is to understand the cooperative position of the business/stock and devise the value of the business of its ability to generate free cash flow now or in to the future. Create a predictive model of what you think the development of the fundamental aspects of the business will lead to from an operational stan...2019-12-0300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Understanding Behavioral Bia$: #34Book review and origin story of "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making”. This book is a great tool to improve your investing skills. This is not a list of biases, but a guide that provides best practices to overcome biases when investing. Remedies to each bias are included. Learn about these biases and be able to capitalize off of the biases of other investors. Also, included is a summary of the investment process used in a successful hedge fund. Unlike other behavioral finance books, "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making” is a guid...2019-11-2500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investment Process II: Idea Vetting: #33Idea vetting is the second step in the Investment Process - how to improve your process and what Biases are keeping your from your financial and investing goals. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com2019-11-2000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investment Process I: Idea Generation: #32Investment Process new series (3 parts) from Mental Models Podcast. Talking you through each step of the investment process, starting with idea generation and associated biases. Watch out for episodes II and III of the Investment Process. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com NEW BOOK "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" Available on Amazon NOW http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com
Be sure to listen to Mental Models: Grou...2019-11-1300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Benefits of Behavioral Bias: #31Biases can come about and trip up your investing decisions when your moving to fast. Incorporate speed bumps into your process, such as a check list. Have a coffee (or a scotch) and think through your process! There is an upside to biases - consider the slow mode advocated by Daniel Kahneman.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com2019-11-0600 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Peaking Investors Curiosity: #30In the investing world some very distinctive feature are alerting you to a particular opportunity or something to be concerned about - Peaking your Curiosity. Base Rate Neglect Bias: Try to think in probabilities when ever possible, because there are so many statistics out there. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com2019-10-3000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Passive or Active Management: #29Passive index funds (ex. S & P 500 can be over performed if an edge can be found. Ways to avoid bias in active and passive management. Episode #29 is discussed in our new book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making", specifically Chapter 8. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com
This podcast is a listener requested topic - Thank you Waco of Dallas for your question and support.
What are you interested in hearing about? Fill out...2019-10-2200 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: "Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates": #28A discussion of Bill Gate's mental models as observed in the 3 part documentary series on Netflix: "Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates". Bill Gates mental process protects him from a variety of cognitive biases, such as base rate neglect. Other biases discussed in relation to Bill Gates mental process include survivor bias, Illusion of control, and overconfidence.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
Dr Daniel Krawczyk @TEDxUTD (10/21/19)- Brain Science for...2019-10-1500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Part 2 of Mike Hughes on Artificial Intelligence: #27Artificial Intelligence Part 2 with Mike Hughes from OutSystems in Portugal discussing uses of AI in investing, business and court proceedings as the AI judge! BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK by your hosts of Mental Models Podcast | Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
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Be sure to listen to Mental Models: Group Think Part 1 and Mental Models: Group Think Part 2 for biases when borrowing an idea and how to manage and or avoid the bias pitfalls. https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com.
Dr Daniel Krawczyk @TEDxUTD (10/21/19)- Brain Science for Investment Deci...2019-10-0800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Mike Hughes on AI Part 1: #26Artificial Intelligence enthusiast Mike Hughes discusses a range of topics including machine learning and the future of computing. Part 1 of a 2 part series in AI and investing. Mike is an accomplished "IT Renaissance Man". Mike is part of the OutSystems success story, which helps clients to become their own success stories using OutSystems low-code platform. Sound has been updated for audience! BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK by your hosts of Mental Models Podcast | Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
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Dr Daniel Krawczyk @TEDxUTD (10/21/19)- Brain Science for Inve...2019-10-0600 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Framing Effect & Investing: #25Consider the "bias luggage" that comes along with your frame and the frame of the market while investing and making investment decisions. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK by your hosts of Mental Models Podcast | Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com2019-09-2400 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Value Investing and Technology Part 2: #24The landscape of value investing has changed due to the availability of information. The rapid increase in information on businesses, stocks and more is decidedly liked to technology. The information highway has changed the process of value investing. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Mental models Podcast.
Published by Business Expert Press...2019-09-1700 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Value Investing Since Benjamin Graham Part 1: #23Value investing from Benjamin Graham to the lessons of Warren Buffet. Followed by what the picture is NOW. Review of modern day investing and how the landscape has changed and where the methodologies of these giants are still correct today and where they might not be.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Me...2019-09-1000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Biases that keep you from Investing Success: #22Biases are part of the cognitive architecture of the brain. We can't avoid biases but we can think analytically and put speed bumps in our way to force us to check our assumptions. Biases covered included under the umbrellas of Attention biases, Memory bias, and Knowledge bias. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts...2019-09-0300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Macro Economy Revisited: #21The macro economy picture NOW (8/2019)in the US that would have a world impact. What to watch: Consumer is strong; Fed has eased, but there is an inversion of the yield curve. Mental Model Podcast discusses other factors that could indicate a recession is 22 months away and George Baxter's mental model of a possible recession.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Kraw...2019-08-2700 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Reflexivity: #20Use the mental model of reflexivity as applied by George Soros to capital markets leading to investing success. In summary, a rising stock price can reflect the fundamentals of the business which can lead to a rising stock price. More at MentalModelsPodcast.com and on twitter @ModelsFinance. As always thank you for listening and please follow, subscribe and like the podcast - it matters!
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are...2019-08-2000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Economic Cycle and Macro Babble: #19Helpful to have a schema or picture of how the economy works so you don't overreact to news reports such as Chinese tariffs, that might rattle the market. Further discussion of predictors of recession and investing strategies in a turbulent market. Visit Mental Models Podcast for link to video mentioned in the podcast and links to our YouTube channel. As always thank you for listening and please follow, subscribe and like the podcast - it matters!
NEW BOOK Available NOW on Amazon . "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" Behavioral finance advice and solutions.
More information at...2019-08-1300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Confirmation Bias and the Macro Rorschach: #18Is the US headed into a recession or contraction in the economy? Confirmation Bias is when we force our views upon the macro data, and there is always something there. What are indicators of a recession? Humans are excellent data processors for the short term, we need indicators to watch for. It is necessary to identify what is actionable, but macro events in the Economist Magazine for example, can obscure our perspective, due to over coverage. A better strategy would be to step back and think less about the macro to give your brain time to catch up.
BUY “Understanding Be...2019-08-0600 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Knowledge Illusion-When You think you get it, but you don't: #17Understand your mental model, and develop a competitive advantage of investing strategies, and learn the brain science behind the knowledge illusion. Like a 'prosthetic for your brain' extra knowledge can appear to expand your horizons, but beware it maybe an illusion.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Mental models Podcast.
Published by Bu...2019-07-3000 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Brain and Investment Timing: #16A challenge for investors is get the timing correct in their forecasts. How does the timing of current events impact the market and what is your brains role? This is relevant to the Equifax data breach and the 2008 housing crisis. Some experts were calling out the possibility of an economic crisis linked to subprime mortgage practices, but their timing was early. Predicting the speed at which events will unfold is extremely difficult. One particular speculation is the current day 'loss of 20-40% of China's hogs' (a primary source of the worlds protein) due to 'African Swine Fever'. This will likely...2019-07-2300 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Multiple Memory Bias Strategies: #15Learn strategies to fix memory biases that keep you from financial success. Increase your profit margin! Learn the science of memory to truly understand how you are being tripped up by memory bias. Followed by tips from a hedge fund manager who currently uses these strategies in his shop leading to great $$ success. Investors, sales people, business, entrepreneur or solo-E can increase profit margin with these strategies, tips and fixes.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help...2019-07-1600 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Expertise #14Expertise can serve an investor very well, although it can take 10,000 hours to be a true expert in a particular field. Skills developed in another discipline that has a similar process, can allow an investor to build grit by sticking to a specific discipline, while building a mind set to build towards expertise. Top tip, prioritize sleep because it is restorative and helps with memory and building of expertise. Also, investors will rely on industry 'experts' to understand a particular area, without checking that this individual understand the market, thus their advice may not be useful in the investing forum.
...2019-07-0900 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investing Profit Despite Perils of Hindsight Bias: #13Not being able to see the difference between what you know NOW relative to what you KNEW before IS hindsight bias - a psychological bias that can be overcome in investing. How? Choose stocks based on a sound analysis of company financial performance and for their true market value. Like politicians and weathermen, investors can't predict the future. Investors can focus on their process and recheck their thinking leading to greater profits. Remember that the world is complex and many factors influence outcomes.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #ment...2019-07-0200 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investing-Brain Myths Debunked and Winning Strategies: #12Short sales are rarely the simple inverse of a long sale-LEARN 3 strategies for investing success in short sales. A monkey cannot out perform an investment professional-the monkey doesn't know about the 10% of stocks that out performs every-time. Are emotion and reasoning connected? Also, learn what became of Einstein's brain after he died, did he use 100% of his brain? Not likely, since using 100% of our brains would likely result in seizures and hallucinations as your motor and visual cortex would be firing full time. In investing, does the "rising tide lifts all boats", will you always be a winner?
BUY “Understanding Be...2019-06-2500 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Investors Identify and Remedy Regression to the Mean: #11Investors should be aware that stocks are not always normally distributed and when this fact is overlooked they may suffer from the 'regression to the mean' bias! What is a regression to the mean? When a stock price is extended either to the upside or downside, then it will usually correct toward its average price. However, there are many exceptions since above or below average performance does not always mean revert because of outlier events beyond a normal distribution. Listen in and learn how to identify and remedy the bias toward assuming a regression to the mean while investing.
BUY “Un...2019-06-1800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Multiple Levels of Thinking Styles: #10Embrace that we think at multiple levels, not just fast and slow. Our thought process is constructed in 3 levels, due to the complexity of our brains. The first level is instinct, which is our emotional response, the second level is intuition, a learned response or skill, and the third level is reasoning, which is your conscious mind involved in complex thought. Be disciplined in your investment decision making while playing the long game. A loss is felt more keenly than a win, and there will be loses in investing. But, when you lose, it will be more likely attributed to...2019-06-1100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Strategies to Overcome Illusion of Control Bias: #9Illusions of control or illusion of invulnerability bias, is in response to the complications of the world and your brain. We think we have everything worked out and are overly confident which can lead to disaster. For example, when an investor or a manager is on a winning streak for a while they will tend to think that the success is an outcrop of their brilliance and any move they make will be successful and they don't consider their process. The subcortical area of the brain, specifically the basil ganglia is involved in this bias and is linked to foraging...2019-06-0400 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Strategies to Keep Narratives from Leading you Off a Financial Cliff: #8How does your brain interpret the world and develop narratives? It takes a heroic effort to upend a narrative that you put a lot of work behind. Sticking with a narrative without looking at the chain of cause and effect, and or shining a light on the gaps in your knowledge can lead to falling off a financial cliff in investing, as well as life choices.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the bias...2019-05-2800 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Confirmation Bias: #7Strategies for investors, lawyers, intelligence analysts, and everyday life. Gather evidence to strategize if on the correct path - we are looking for confirmation. But, beware of "Idea Inoculation", which can result in not seeing all of the options, because we cherry pick the evidence to support our strategic plan. Don't miss the evidence and be taken down by confirmation bias! Think deeply and frequently about your positions, and self-reflect on the evidence.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This...2019-05-2100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!When to Upend the Status Quo?: #6The default effect is a strategy used in marketing with great success. It is very human to go with the 'status quo'. There is a natural brain benefit, because all of these little decisions can results in mental/decision fatigue. In investing it maybe necessary to overcome the default by reconstructing the entire portfolio, to reconsider the current stance and possibly make changes. Opting out or making a new decision is fatiguing, but going with the status quo can have a nefarious effect.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #ment...2019-05-1400 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Decision Fatigue | Strategies for Success: #5How do you avoid decision fatigue? Strategies used by George Baxter, JD, CFA include limiting his decisions outside of his professional life as a hedge fund manager, thereby fighting the chances of becoming fatigued. For example, you can follow others leads in ordering food. Make use of automated strategies and use default rules to make decisions. This will help you to reduce decision fatigue. Humans make multiple decisions in a day, excessive numbers of options can also result in anticipated regret from not picking one choice over the other and can result in exhaustion. More choices can lead to the...2019-05-0700 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Groupthink Part 2: #4Groupthink how being part of an investing team comes with positive and negative factors. How working with a team can derail your investing strategies and decision making. Discussed are tried and true decision making tips to overcome the Groupthink bias.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights.
This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success!
Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Mental models Podcast.
Published by Busin...2019-05-0100 minMental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Groupthink Part I: #3We take a deep dive into the benefits of thinking in groups and how our mental models change through group interactions. Team members can help us to flesh out our mental models in a variety of situations. Seeking multiple opinions can give you a wider perspective, but other people’s opinions can have an oversized effect on your thinking. Benjamin Graham spoke about the quality of your analysis making a big difference, but also that listening to groups can aid you to be a better investor. Psychologists call this process of understanding motivations of others “theory of mind”, or perspective taking...2019-04-2300 min
Mental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Value drives our lives! Your brains response to value & investing lives: #2Value runs deeply within your brain. The brain’s reward systems respond to primary incentives, but the story does not end there. People amplify the value of objects and experiences to a dramatic degree through our shared perceptions. Investing is guided by both ground truth value and our extended mental models of the situation. The social narrative can amplify value, as is the case of Warren Buffet’s signed ukulele selling for upwards of $10,000. Human perception drives the value of art, memories, family, and even preserving your DNA. The value placed on earning more money can be prolific, for example many...2019-04-1400 min
Mental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!Mental Models: Your brain & behavioral finance: #1Do you want to learn about Mental Model$, behavorial finance and neuroscience/your brain? Do you want to know how your brain functions and the interactions with financial decision making? This show is for you! This show is also the perfect opportunity for listeners to meet the hosts and get to know their style. Mental Model$ Podcast provides listeners with an opportunity to enjoy original, high-quality content. Tune in, subscribe and discover why listeners refuse to miss Mental Models Podcast.
BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels
Behavioral finance advi...2019-04-0400 min