Shows
Les chiffresRodriguez pourrait-il couler la CAQ ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe analysent le plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le Parti québécois demeure en tête, tandis que la CAQ et le PLQ se disputent toujours la deuxième place.Nous nous penchons ensuite sur les données liées à la course à la chefferie du PLQ. Le sondage suggère que l’ancien ministre fédéral Pablo Rodriguez est non seulement perçu comme le favori, mais qu’il pourrait aussi rendre les libéraux beaucoup plus compétitifs en vue des prochaines é...2025-05-2028 minLes chiffresEt le prochain gouvernement fédéral sera...Pour ce dernier épisode du balado Les chiffres de cette campagne fédérale, Éric et Philippe décortiquent le plus récent sondage Léger, qui place le Parti libéral en tête à l’échelle nationale, avec notamment une avance importante sur le Bloc québécois au Québec. Ils passent ensuite en revue la carte électorale fédérale dans la province, région par région, avant de discuter des autres circonscriptions francophones du pays. Enfin, ils livrent leur pronostic final à l’approche du jour du scrutin.Pour vous abonner au balado, visitez l'adresse...2025-04-2638 minLes chiffresDernier sprintPlus qu'une semaine à faire dans cette campagne fédérale ! Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des débats des chefs, ainsi que des récents sondages qui montrent une course légèrement plus compétitive entre les libéraux et les conservateurs. Nous décortiquons les chiffres au Québec, où le Bloc semble remonter la pente. Est-ce que cette remontée pourrait coûter aux libéraux la majorité tant convoitée ?Pour vous abonner au balado, visitez la page http://www.leschiffres.ca et merci de votre soutien ! Hébergé par Ac...2025-04-1926 minLes chiffresLes débats de la dernière chance ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe décortiquent les plus récents sondages fédéraux et analysent les grandes tendances qui se dégagent des données. Le Parti libéral de Mark Carney réussira-t-il à conserver son avance jusqu’à la ligne d’arrivée ? Le Bloc peut-il remonter la pente et ainsi réduire les chances d’une majorité libérale ? Les débats des chefs, prévus la semaine prochaine, pourraient-ils changer la donne ?Nous jetons ensuite un coup d’œil à quelques circonscriptions qui pourraient changer de couleur au Québec — dont certaines où les...2025-04-1235 minLes chiffresVague rouge à l'horizon ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Eric et Philippe décortiquent les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec. Selon Léger et d'autres sondeurs de renom, le PLC aurait creusé son avance sur le Bloc québécois au Québec, et ce, dans chaque région et parmi chacune des tranches d'âge. Sommes-nous, à trois semaines du scrutin, en train de voir les premiers signes d'une vague libérale au Québec ? Nous discutons ensuite de quelques circonscriptions fédérales à surveiller, puis répondons aux questions de nos membres.Pour devenir membre du balado, visitez...2025-04-0528 minLes chiffresCampagne fédérale : la première semaine au PLCDans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent de la première semaine de cette campagne fédérale. Il y a beaucoup de sondages à décortiquer ! Nous plongeons dans les chiffres, discutons de nos projections de sièges au pays, puis portons une attention particulière à l'écart grandissant entre le PLC et le Bloc québécois au Québec. Où sont les batailles à surveiller dans la province? Trois-Rivières? L'Estrie? La région de Québec ?Pour accéder à nos épisodes bonis et au courrier de nos membres, abonnez-vou...2025-03-2930 min
The NumbersAs NDP collapses, Carney hits new highsEarly campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead.On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campaign is unfolding. Can the NDP save any of its seats? Have the Liberals run into trouble in Quebec? And will the Conservatives be able to turn things around?2025-03-2740 minThe NumbersHas the Liberal surge peaked already?A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavily favoured to win, plus we discuss some new polling out of Quebec. Then, Philippe has a Quiz on past Liberal leadership contests.Want even more of The...2025-03-0645 minThe NumbersThe NDP is in deep troubleAs the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits.And in Ontario, Marit Stiles’s NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie’s and the Ontario Liberals’ to lose.This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the latest federal and Ontario polling numbers, as well as br...2025-02-2052 minLes chiffresPQ-BQ : le vent dans les voilesCette semaine, au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe analysent les plus récents sondages de Léger et Segma Recherche, qui confirment que le Bloc québécois et le Parti québécois amorcent 2025 avec le vent dans les voiles. Selon Léger, le PQ formerait sans doute un gouvernement majoritaire si des élections provinciales avaient lieu cet hiver, tandis que les troupes d'Yves-François Blanchet restent en tête au Québec dans l’éventualité d’un scrutin fédéral. Du côté de Segma, des chiffres locaux dans la grande région du Sague...2025-01-2929 minLes chiffresLe PQ termine 2024 au sommetCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Peut-il encore progresser ? La CAQ a-t-elle atteint son plancher ? Peut-elle remonter la pente avant les élections ?Nous comparons ensuite de nos projections sièges, autant leurs similarités que de leurs différences. Finalement, nous discutons des chiffres fédéraux au Québec, où le PLC semble avoir glissé en troisième place. Le Bloc peut-il réellement devenir l'opposition officielle à Ottawa ?Pour accéder à no...2024-12-0931 minLes chiffresLa CAQ au bord du gouffre ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe analysent en profondeur le plus récent sondage Léger au Québec. Ce sondage révèle un écart de 14 points entre le Parti québécois et la Coalition avenir Québec. François Legault est-il toujours l’homme de la situation pour la CAQ? Nous discutons également de la course à la chefferie du Parti libéral du Québec. Pablo Rodriguez, présentement député fédéral indépendant, semble être le favori, et les données suggèrent qu’il pourrait même arracher des appuis à la CAQ...2024-11-1833 minThe NumbersDays of Decision in BC, NB — and for Justin TrudeauJustin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.2024-10-1854 minLes chiffresLe PQ toujours en tête, que fera François Legault?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe décortiquent le dernier sondage québécois de la maison Pallas Data qui accorde au PQ une avance confortable dans les intentions de vote au Québec.Est-ce que la CAQ pourrait remonter la pente? Évidemment que oui, sauf que la cote de popularité de François Legault a nettement chuté au cours des derniers mois, ce qui rendra cet objectif encore plus difficile.Nous discutons aussi des chiffres du Bloc québécois qui trône au sommet des projections de sièges au Québec...2024-10-0824 minThe NumbersAre the Liberals now in third place?This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are t...2024-10-0439 minLes chiffresDe Terrebonne humeur, les péquistes ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ se maintient en tête, la CAQ a freiné sa glissade, alors que le PLQ et QS font du surplace. De leur côté, les conservateurs profitent des appuis des minorités linguistiques. Est-ce un effet Poilievre?Nous discutons ensuite de l'élection partielle à venir dans la circonscription de Terrebonne. La CAQ l'avait emportée par 30 points en 2022, mais, historiquement, ce comté a traditionnellement été favorable au Parti québécois.2024-09-0929 minThe NumbersJagmeet Singh rips up the deal — now what?This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.T...2024-09-0654 minThe NumbersSummer is ending, polling season beginsIt's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site...2024-08-2359 minLes chiffresUne vraie course au PLQ ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ?Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ?Merci aux auditeurs et membres du balado pour votre écoute ! Pour devenir membre, visitez l...2024-08-2325 minThe NumbersByelection Draft Day!What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extende...2024-08-091h 03The NumbersTrudeau's next byelection testA byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the...2024-07-2657 minThe NumbersDon't you know who I am?On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.2024-07-1959 minThe NumbersSummer mailbag!As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including:Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!Support...2024-07-1241 minLes chiffresEst-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto--St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle--Émard--Verdun ?Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet à Éric un p...2024-06-2843 minThe NumbersA turning point in Toronto–St. Paul'sOn this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Number...2024-06-2852 minThe NumbersDon't call it a comeback yet, LiberalsOn this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every sec...2024-06-1448 minLes chiffresLe Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à QuébecCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres à propos d'une potentielle alliance PLC-NPD, de la CAQ qui pourrait remplacer le PLQ comme option « fédéraliste » et propos du projet de troisième lien Québec-Lévis qu...2024-06-1440 minLes chiffresDes congrès, des congrès partoutCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias.Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à tr...2024-05-3146 minThe NumbersSnap elections, byelections and Trudeau's leadershipThis week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday...2024-05-3155 minLes chiffresLe Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ?Nous répondons ensuite aux qu...2024-05-1748 minThe NumbersStrong, stable, national Conservative 20-point leadThis week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member...2024-05-171h 01Les chiffresQuébec solidaire en désarroiCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages au Québec, de l'avance du Parti québécois et des appuis au PLQ chez les communautés anglophones et allophones au Québec. De plus, nous analysons la démission de la co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire, Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Est-ce que Québec solidaire devra effectuer des réformes à l'interne pour espérer une croissance de ses appuis ? Les membres de QS accepteront-ils des tels changements ?Nous discutons ensuite des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui nous indiquent que l'éc...2024-05-0355 minThe NumbersConservatives put up some big numbersOn this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election.In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on a hobbled Éric in this week's edition of The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes e...2024-05-0357 minLes chiffresLe troisième référendum : une « certitude »Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du discours de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon lors du conseil national du Parti québécois, lors duquel il a affirmé qu'il y aura assurément un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avant la fin de la décennie. Était-ce une bonne stratégie ? Est-ce que l'aiguille des sondages bougera suite à ce discours (d'un côté comme de l'autre) ?Nous discutons ensuite du départ du whip de la CAQ, Éric Lefebvre, qui portera les couleurs du Parti conservateur de Pierre Poilievre aux proch...2024-04-1942 minThe NumbersCould an election make sense for the NDP?This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get...2024-04-1951 minLes chiffresLes Gaspésiens triomphent (malgré leur nombre)Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent de l'abandon du projet de redécoupage de la carte électorale au Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal garderont leurs sièges, alors que les Laurentides et le Centre-du-Québec continueront d'être sous-représentés. Le gouvernement a-t-il manqué de courage dans ce dossier ?Nous discutons ensuite des derniers chiffres fédéraux de Léger au Québec et ailleurs au pays, puis nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et auditeurs. Finalement, Philippe soumet à Éric un petit quiz sur les...2024-04-0544 minThe NumbersA new trend or another blip?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex?In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for...2024-04-051h 00The NumbersWith Liberal friends like these...This week, Philippe and Éric chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts Éric to the test with The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early ac...2024-03-221h 00Les chiffresFrançois Legault est-il devenu un boulet pour son parti ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le PQ a creusé davantage l'écart avec la CAQ et le taux de satisfaction du gouvernement continue de chuter. Sera-t-il possible pour la CAQ de remonter la pente et, pour y arriver, aura-t-elle besoin d'un changement de chef ? Nous décortiquons aussi les chiffres fédéraux du sondage, en particulier les données pour la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Le Bloc aurait-il dépassé les conservateurs à Québec ? Nous répondons ensuite aux...2024-03-2254 minThe NumbersProving the polls rightIf the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests Éric's knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of o...2024-03-0850 minLes chiffresQue restera-t-il du PLC au Québec ?Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Pallas Data pour le Québec. Les appuis aux PQ ont-ils plafonné ? La CAQ a-t-elle freiné sa glissade ?Nous décortiquons ensuite les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec qui ont mesuré une baisse importante des appuis aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Que resterait-il du PLC au Québec si ces chiffres devaient se concrétiser ?Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric sur des personnalités poli...2024-03-0844 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #120: How to win a byelectionOn Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign?On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He’s now host...2024-03-0137 minThe WritEp. #120: How to win a byelectionOn Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign?On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He’s now host...2024-03-0137 minThe NumbersRaces for second placesA new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What to make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the right in B.C. and the linguistic split in New Brunswick. Then, Ph...2024-02-231h 18Les chiffresLe Bloc sur la défensive ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec qui semblent indiquer une montée des appuis des conservateurs de Pierre Poilievre. Est-ce que le Bloc pourra défendre ses acquis dans la région de Québec ? De plus, Éric et Philippe décortiquent les escarmouches verbales entre le premier ministre Legault et le Bloc québécois. Ensuite, Philippe discute de sa plus récente projection de sièges pour le Québec. Finalement, nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric à p...2024-02-2353 minLes chiffresLe PQ continue sa lancéeEnfin des sondages à décortiquer ! Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data qui mesurent le PQ en tête des intentions de vote avec 32 % au Québec. Ces appuis sont-ils solides ? La CAQ peut-elle remonter la pente ? Il est aussi questions des données sur les appuis à la souveraineté, où les sondages semblent diverger quelque peu. Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos auditeurs. Finalement, Éric se transforme en animateur et c'est Philippe qui doit répondre au quiz de la semaine à prop...2024-02-0959 minThe NumbersWill the NDP pull the plug?We discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and put Philippe to the test with another Quiz.Join our Patreon for exclusive episodes and...2024-02-091h 18Les chiffresTroubles en santé, Champagne au PLQ et Marchand, Plante dans la mire de PoilievreCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Léger sur les perceptions des réseaux de la santé au pays, dans lequel seulement 15% des répondants québécois décrivent le système de santé comme bon ou excellent. Aussi, les rumeurs continuent de circuler autour de la chefferie du PLQ : est-ce que le ministre fédéral François-Philippe Champagne pourrait être intéressé ? Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres à propos des commentaires de Pierre Poilievre sur les maires Marchand et Plante. Finalement, Philippe soumet Éric à un quiz sur la fascina...2024-01-2644 minThe NumbersDissent in the ranksAre cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? We also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia?Get early access to episodes and exclusive access to our bonus episodes by joining our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.co...2024-01-2649 minLes chiffresDenis Coderre au PLQ ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent baromètre des personnalités politiques québécoises de Léger. En tête du baromètre se trouve le chef du Parti québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, alors que les perceptions de plusieurs élus caquistes sont en chute libre. Il est aussi question de la course à la chefferie du PLQ. En effet, l'ancien député fédéral et maire de Montréal, Denis Coderre, a annoncé qu’il songe à s'y lancer. Finalement, nous décortiquons les derniers sondages fédéraux et répondons aux questions...2024-01-1241 minThe NumbersNevermind, Liberals are doomed againAfter polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on Éric for last week's Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here (thenumberspod.ca). Every second episode of The Numbers is for P...2024-01-1255 minLes chiffresChampionnat annuel de prédictions pour 2024 !Pour cet épisode plus léger de fin d'année du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric s'amusent à faire quelques prédictions de politique québécoise et canadienne pour 2024. Chacun soumet des énoncés et des lignes de mise, puis doit décider si la ligne est trop haute ou trop basse. Par exemple : Jusqu'où montera le PQ en 2024 ? Quel est le plancher de la CAQ ? Combien y aura-t-il de candidats à la chefferie du PLQ ? Et tant d'autres...Bonne et heureuse année 2024 à tous nos auditeurs et abonnés ! Pour vous abonner, visitez la page www.leschiffres.ca...2023-12-2941 minThe NumbersThe 3rd Annual Over/Under Contest!On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.This being the last episode of the year, let us take this opportunity to thank you so much for your support of The Numbers...2023-12-291h 18Les chiffresDes sondages qui dérangentDans cet épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent de la plus récente projection de sièges au Québec et des vases communicants entre le PQ et la CAQ. Ils décortiquent un nouveau sondage fédéral qui indique que l'écart entre le PLC et le PCC s'est resserré quelque peu. Est-ce une fluctuation ou une nouvelle tendance ? Philippe et Éric répondent ensuite aux questions des membres du balado... Qu'en est-il des appuis aux syndicats de la fonction publique ? Qui est le rival naturel de la CAQ ? À quoi ressemblerait un hypothétique gouvernement pé...2023-12-1552 minThe NumbersWait, maybe the Liberals aren't doomed after all?The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site. Every second episode of The Numbers is for Patreon members...2023-12-1551 minLes chiffresLa CAQ (encore) en déroute, le PQ grimpe en flècheCette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents chiffres de la maison Pallas Data au Québec qui mesurent une forte hausse d'appui du Parti québécois aux dépens de la CAQ. Comment les formations politiques de l'Assemblée nationale réagiront-elles devant cette nouvelle tendance qui s'accentue depuis le printemps ? De plus, Philippe et Éric font un retour sur le congrès de Québec solidaire à Gatineau et du choix (serré !) des délégués d'Émilise Lessard-Therrien comme co-porte-parole féminine du parti. Finalement, nous abordons les plus r...2023-12-011h 09The NumbersHave the Liberals hit their floor?This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.To join our Patreon, get early access to public episodes on Thursdays and exclusive episodes every two weeks, head to thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon2023-12-011h 14Les chiffresLes chiffres au congrès de QS (en personne !)Éric et Philippe vous offrent cet épisode spécial enregistré pendant et après le congrès de Québec solidaire à Gatineau. Nous discuterons de la course à la co-chefferie de la formation de gauche, nous recevons Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois pour une petite causerie sur son futur en politique et, finalement, nous discutons des résultats incroyablement serrés du deuxième tour du scrutin, où Émilise Lessard-Therrien l'a emporté par quelques votes à peine sur la députée de Mercier, Ruba Ghazal.Merci à tous nos membres pour vos suggestions de questions ! www.leschiffres.ca Hébergé par Acast. Vis...2023-11-2740 minThe NumbersRIP Carbon Tax?We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race, new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.To join our Patreon and get access to our members-only episodes and early access to public episodes on Thursdays (as well as to join our hopping Discord!), please head to thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See...2023-11-171h 10Les chiffresSo, so, so solidarité ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des derniers sondages sur le conflit entre le gouvernement du Québec et les (nombreux) syndicats du secteur public qui intensifient leurs moyens de pression. Serait-il payant ou dommageable pour le gouvernement d'appliquer la ligne dure ? Il est ensuite question du prochain congrès de Québec solidaire où les délégués du voteront pour la co-porte-parole féminine (celle qui remplacera Manon Massé). Puis, Éric et Philippe décortiquent les derniers sondages fédéraux qui, sans surprise, demeurent difficiles pour les libéraux de Justin Tr...2023-11-1755 min
The Writ PodcastThe Numbers: Unexpected flailingsOn this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) i...2023-11-031h 04The NumbersUnexpected flailingsWe discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts Éric on the spot. Join our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod to get early access to episodes every week on Thursday and exclusive access to our members-only episodes every two weeks! Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-11-031h 04Les chiffresLa CAQ en déroute?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent du dernier sondage québécois de la maison Léger qui mesure des appuis historiquement bas pour les troupes de François Legault. Quel parti en profite? (Divulgâcheur : le Parti québécois). De plus, Éric et Philippe comparent les taux de satisfaction du gouvernement et décortiquent les données concernant l'appui à la souveraineté. Il est aussi question des dernières tendances sur la scéne fédérale, avec les Conservateurs de Pierre Poilièvre qui ont le vent dans les voiles. Finalement, Éric et Philippe répondent aux questi...2023-11-0349 minThe NumbersPreview: Sixteen PointsA preview of this week's episode, where we chat about the Conservatives' big lead in the polls, some new numbers regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict and a tightening gap on the Saskatchewan provincial scene. We answer some listener questions, including whether Trudeau could do worse than Ignatieff or Poilievre could do better than Mulroney, and Philippe is put to the test with a quiz! To get access to the full episode, visit thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-10-2606 min
The Writ PodcastThe Numbers: Should Trudeau stay or should he go?This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site he...2023-10-2049 minThe NumbersShould Trudeau stay or should he go?This week, we chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's.Get early access and don't miss out on next week's episode: thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more in...2023-10-2049 minLes chiffresPLQ, souveraineté et mode de scrutinCette semaine, Philippe et Éric discutent de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui va s’étirer jusqu’au printemps 2025, de la pétition en cours sur le changement du mode de scrutin au Québec et des plus récents chiffres fédéraux qui placent le PLC de Justin Trudeau loin derrière les conservateurs au pays. De plus, ils plongent dans le nouveau sondage de la maison Pallas Data concernant les appuis à la souveraineté : la montée du PQ dans les sondages mènera-t-elle à une relance de la question nationale au Québec ? Philippe et Éric ne sont pas d’accord là-d...2023-10-2043 minThe NumbersDon't miss out on this week's episode!As we mentioned last week, every second episode of The Numbers will now be only for members of our Patreon. This week, we're chatting about the latest federal polls as well as new numbers in B.C., Alberta and Quebec, and we discuss the NDP's upcoming convention in Hamilton. Plus, Philippe has another quiz! We'll have a regular episode of The Numbers in your feed next week, but if you don't want to miss this week's episode join our Patreon and listen today: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast...2023-10-1201 minThe NumbersWhat happens in Manitoba doesn't stay in ManitobaWe break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week.Don't miss next week's episode! Become a member at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-10-0657 minLes chiffresJean-Talon fera-t-elle boule de neige?Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent des résultats de l'élection partielle dans Jean-Talon, ainsi que de la réaction de la CAQ suite à cette cuisante défaite. Est-ce que le PQ pourrait utiliser cette élection comme un tremplin pour 2026 ? 2030 ? De plus, nous analysons les résultats de l'élection provinciale au Manitoba remportée par les néo-démocrates et qui renvoie les conservateurs sur les banquettes de l'opposition. Finalement, nous répondons aux questions de nos abonnés à propos de la course (ou plutôt l'absence de course) à la chefferie du PLQ....2023-10-0636 minThe NumbersPoilievre minority or landslide?Philippe and Éric discuss some federal polling that would produce very different electoral outcomes. They then draft their ridings to watch in Manitoba's election, play a game of over/under ahead of the Jean-Talon byelection and answer listener questions. Join our Patreon for early access to episodes and, starting soon, Patron-only episodes: thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-09-291h 04The NumbersPower PolliverWe discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric. Join our Patreon and get early access to all episodes at http://thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-09-2258 minLes chiffresMontréal versus la Gaspésie ?Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du rapport préliminaire de la nouvelle carte électorale proposée par Élections Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal perdraient un siège, alors que le Centre-du-Québec et les Laurentides en gagneraient un. Est-ce juste et justifiable que des circonscriptions de régions éloignées soient moins populeuses que la moyenne québécoise - et si oui, jusqu'à quel point ? Aussi, nous discutons brièvement de chiffres fédéraux, de la campagne électorale au Manitoba et de la possibilité d'une élection hâtive au Nouveau-Brunswick. D...2023-09-2242 minThe NumbersEnthusiastic Conservatives, nervous LiberalsWe chat about Philippe's experience at the Conservative convention and more polling numbers that should make the Liberals very worried. We also discuss a big development in B.C. politics, whether Doug Ford is made out of Teflon and if Heather Stefanson can win re-election as the least popular premier in Canada. Plus, we have answers to listener questions and our numbers of the week. Get early access to episodes and our Discord at thenumberspod.ca Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-09-1555 min
The WritThe Numbers: Conservatives hold a convention and a big polling leadIn this first episode of The Numbers, a collaboration between myself and Philippe J. Fournier, we do a rundown of the latest federal polling and what it means for the three major parties. We also discuss the Conservative convention, the impact of the Greenbelt controversy on the Ontario PCs, the early days of the Manitoba election and the upcoming provincial byelection in Jean-Talon.We then answer some listener questions and Philippe subjects me to a little quiz.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast...2023-09-081h 00The Writ PodcastThe Numbers: Conservatives hold a convention and a big polling leadIn this first episode of The Numbers, a collaboration between myself and Philippe J. Fournier, we do a rundown of the latest federal polling and what it means for the three major parties. We also discuss the Conservative convention, the impact of the Greenbelt controversy on the Ontario PCs, the early days of the Manitoba election and the upcoming provincial byelection in Jean-Talon.We then answer some listener questions and Philippe subjects me to a little quiz.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast...2023-09-081h 00Les chiffresJean-Talon, Trudeau en chute et congrès conservateurAu cours de cet épisode inaugural du balado, Philippe et Éric discutent de l'élection partielle dans Jean-Talon, des sondages dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale, des changements d'humeur des électeurs québécois depuis l'élection de 2022, des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui placent les Libéraux de Justin Trudeau en difficulté et du congrès des Conservateurs fédéraux à Québec. De plus, nous répondons à quelques questions de nos abonnés. Nous vous invitons à visiter le lien http://www.leschiffres.ca pour vous abonner au balado et ainsi avoir accès aux pages Pat...2023-09-0838 minThe NumbersConservatives hold a convention and a big polling leadIn this inaugural episode of The Numbers podcast, we chat about the latest federal polls and the Conservative convention, before delving into the provincial scenes in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. Plus, we answer questions from the mailbag and Philippe test's Éric's Ontario political knowledge.To get early access to episodes on Thursdays and join our Discord, become a Patron here: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.2023-09-0859 min
The Writ PodcastComing soon: The Numbers!It’s a break week here at The Writ, but things are about to get pretty busy this fall season with the launch of two new podcasts: The Numbers and Les chiffres!Philippe J. Fournier and I are really excited to start these two new projects, and we hope that you’ll be just as excited for them as we are. You can find more information about The Numbers and Les chiffres at our website here.We also wrote some introductory posts for The Numbers and Les chiffres that you might want to check out.2023-09-0109 minThe NumbersThe Numbers, a new political podcastÉric Grenier, political analyst and author of The Writ newsletter, and Philippe J. Fournier, the mind behind 338Canada, provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada.After collaborating together from time to time on The Writ Podcast, Éric and Philippe have decided to launch a new podcast to share their passion for political history and data-driven analysis with an audience of fellow election junkies.In The Numbers podcast, we'll dive deep into the world of political polling to try to make some sense of the signal that is in all...2023-08-1606 minLes chiffresLes chiffres, un nouveau balado politiqueÉric Grenier, créateur de l'infolettre politique The Writ, et Philippe J. Fournier de Qc125, offrent ici leurs analyses de la politique fédérale et provinciale au pays.Après avoir collaboré lors des élections québécoises de 2022, Éric et Philippe, tous deux passionnés d’histoire politique et d’analyses chiffrées, ont décidé de joindre leurs forces afin d’offrir à leurs lecteurs leurs interprétations de la joute politique au Québec et au Canada.Lors de ce balado, nous plongerons dans l’univers des sondages politiques, essayerons de déceler les grandes tend...2023-08-1604 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #105: Will the Sask. Party pass its byelection tests?On Thursday, three byelections will answer two questions in Saskatchewan politics:1) Are cracks in the conservative coalition that makes up the governing Saskatchewan Party starting to form?2) Will the Saskatchewan New Democrats show any signs that they can win the kind of seats they need if they are to ever return to power?To help set up the three provincial byelections in Regina Walsh Acres, Regina Coronation Park and Lumsden-Morse, I’m joined this week by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.LIVESTREAM: Join me and Philippe J. F...2023-08-0428 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #102: Summer Mailbag!It’s the height of summer and that isn’t always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!):* What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?* Will there be a federal election in 2023?* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?...2023-07-1451 minThe WritEp. #102: Summer Mailbag!It’s the height of summer and that isn’t always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!):* What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?* Will there be a federal election in 2023?* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?...2023-07-1451 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #99: Quebec Premiers DraftWith Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day now upon us, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a little game — a draft of Quebec’s best (and most notorious?) premiers!Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him?After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe2023-06-2339 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #95: Last look at AlbertaWe’re down to the final days of Alberta’s election campaign and it could be close. Will Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives hold on for re-election, or will Rachel Notley’s New Democrats mount a comeback?First, I’m joined by The Globe and Mail’s Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me.Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for some live analysis of the results as t...2023-05-2638 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #94: Byelection Over/UnderThere will be four federal byelections on June 19 in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, all four of them solid seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount.So, what should we expect in these byelections? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada is back to discuss these four races, as well as to set...2023-05-1937 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #91: Get set, Alberta!With just days to go before the starting pistol goes off on Alberta’s campaign, I’m joined this week by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to break down where things stand in this hotly-contested election.We also chat about some other recent news, including François Legault’s decision to go back on his promise of a third link between Quebec City and Lévis for motorists, the results of the New Brunswick byelections, the re-branding of the B.C. Liberals and is it majority or bust for Pierre Poilievre?As always, in addition...2023-04-2840 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #85: China, Alberta, PEI, and the odds of a spring electionHas the Chinese election interference moved the dial in the polls? And what are each party’s incentives (or disincentives) in forcing an election this spring?What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island’s campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week?Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L’actualité and POLITICO Canada) is back on the podcast this week to chat with me about all this and everything in between.As always, in additio...2023-03-1750 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #78: Poilievre and QuebecSince Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the Conservative Party last September, his appearances in English-language media have been relatively infrequent and very targeted. But in Quebec, Poilievre has been much more present as he tries to get better known, and better liked, in the province.So what are the challenges Poilievre and the Conservatives face in Quebec — and what are their realistic prospects?To discuss Pierre Poilievre’s attempt at a grande séduction of Quebec, I’m joined this week by Marie Vastel of Le Devoir, and our friend Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada...2023-01-2730 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #74: The 2nd Annual Over/Under ContestIt’s that time of year again!Last year, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com joined me for a little friendly competition to see who could best predict what would happen in politics in 2022.Well, the results are in — and the title is up for grabs again in 2023.So, join us for this game of over/under as we guess what will happen in federal politics next year as well as in the provincial elections scheduled in Alberta, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.As always, in addition to listening to the epis...2022-12-2350 min
The Writ PodcastEp. #62: A last look at the Quebec electionFrançois Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec started the 2022 Quebec election campaign with a big lead in the polls.And that’s where they are ending it — despite themselves.But while another CAQ majority looks very likely, the campaign hasn’t answered perhaps the biggest question we had when it began — are Quebec’s politics in the midst of a re-alignment as the Conservatives and Québec Solidaire rise and the Liberals and the Parti Québécois fade away?To discuss what each of the parties can expect on Monday night, I’m join...2022-10-0151 min
The Writ PodcastEpisode #58: The Quebec writ dropsOn Sunday, François Legault officially kicked off his re-election campaign in Quebec. Voters will be going to the polls on October 3 in an election that is Legault’s to lose.But despite his party’s big lead in the polls, there’s still a lot at stake in this election campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec needs to avoid any mistakes that could get in the way of a victory while the old governing parties, the Liberals and Parti Québécois, need to avoid catastrophe.Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives, meanwhile, are looking to...2022-09-0234 minThe WritEpisode #58: The Quebec writ dropsOn Sunday, François Legault officially kicked off his re-election campaign in Quebec. Voters will be going to the polls on October 3 in an election that is Legault’s to lose.But despite his party’s big lead in the polls, there’s still a lot at stake in this election campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec needs to avoid any mistakes that could get in the way of a victory while the old governing parties, the Liberals and Parti Québécois, need to avoid catastrophe.Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives, meanwhile, are looking to...2022-09-0234 min
The WritThe Writ Podcast en français!Don’t adjust your podcast player — The Writ Podcast is coming to you in French! When Philippe J. Fournier joined me for our chat about the Quebec election last week, I thought we’d test out a shorter podcast in French to see if there is any interest. If you don’t speak French, don’t worry, we covered the same territory in English in Friday’s episode.The Writ will be back to its regularly scheduled English-language programming later this week.La campagne électorale au Québec sera officiellement lancée dans moins de deux mois. Les...2022-07-1817 minThe Writ PodcastThe Writ Podcast en français!Don’t adjust your podcast player — The Writ Podcast is coming to you in French! When Philippe J. Fournier joined me for our chat about the Quebec election last week, I thought we’d test out a shorter podcast in French to see if there is any interest. If you don’t speak French, don’t worry, we covered the same territory in English in Friday’s episode.The Writ will be back to its regularly scheduled English-language programming later this week.La campagne électorale au Québec sera officiellement lancée dans moins de deux mois. Les...2022-07-1817 min
The WritEpisode #51: Quebec election previewIn less than two months, Quebec’s election campaign will officially be underway. While the polls suggest that François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec is on track for a big majority victory, there are still some big questions that have to be answered when voters cast their ballots on October 3.First among these is whether or not the CAQ can cruise to a win. Does the party have any vulnerabilities that could trip it up between now and election day?Can the Quebec Conservatives finally make a breakthrough after surging in the polls? What’s...2022-07-1538 minThe Writ PodcastEpisode #51: Quebec election previewIn less than two months, Quebec’s election campaign will officially be underway. While the polls suggest that François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec is on track for a big majority victory, there are still some big questions that have to be answered when voters cast their ballots on October 3.First among these is whether or not the CAQ can cruise to a win. Does the party have any vulnerabilities that could trip it up between now and election day?Can the Quebec Conservatives finally make a breakthrough after surging in the polls? What’s...2022-07-1538 min
The WritEpisode #46 - A last look at the Ontario pollsWith just a few days to go before voting day in Ontario’s election, friend-of-the-show Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to join me in a provincial tour of the battlegrounds and ridings to watch on Thursday night.Will Steven Del Duca’s Liberals or Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats emerge as the official opposition? Can Mike Schreiner’s Greens win that coveted second seat? And is there anything that could get in the way of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives winning the majority government that the polls suggest is well within their grasp?The W...2022-05-3153 minThe Writ PodcastEpisode #46 - A last look at the Ontario pollsWith just a few days to go before voting day in Ontario’s election, friend-of-the-show Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to join me in a provincial tour of the battlegrounds and ridings to watch on Thursday night.Will Steven Del Duca’s Liberals or Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats emerge as the official opposition? Can Mike Schreiner’s Greens win that coveted second seat? And is there anything that could get in the way of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives winning the majority government that the polls suggest is well within their grasp?The W...2022-05-3153 min