Shows
The Daily MissionA rising spirit of the times.A rising spirit of the times. You fed up yet?2023-08-2604 minThe Daily MissionFed Fun Day in Jackson Hole: An irreverent take on what you need to know (or not)J Pow wraps Jackson Hole Fed meeting with some thoughts2023-08-2602 minThe Daily MissionAn update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currencyAn update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currency
The U.S. is 26% of the global economy, as measured by annual GDP.
US$ is still 58% of global reserves. It was already declining pre-Covid & pre-UKR War. Despite the massive $$ creation, mismanagement of Fed debt, and abuses of the dollar, it’s still in place for years ahead.
I don’t see how it’s unseated without at least these conditions being present:
1. The emergen...2023-08-1607 minThe Daily MissionA note on mortgage rates & inflationA note on mortgage rates & inflation
This is where mortgage banking and residential real estate overlap w/macroeconomics & money mgt.
First, a disclaimer. I am not a real estate agent or broker.
However, understanding some basics around calculating risk, probability, and applying to personal money management/financial decisions:
1. I wouldn't be buying a house right now until prices adjust from the shock of the RATE OF CHANGE of the moves in rates. Understand the magnitude.
...2023-08-1504 minThe Daily MissionTax Cuts & Jobs Act Sunsets in 2025 - What does that mean for Roth conversions?You have 28 months before the 2018 TCJA (Tax Cuts & Jobs Act) sunsets.
▶ If it expires, we roll back to prior tax brackets 📈
or
▶ It could be extended and remain as-is
or
▶ It could be replaced w/a new act and higher tax rates 📈
2/3 of outcomes lead to higher taxes ❗
Roth conversion?
Maybe.
▶ Depends on your tax situation, your current income bracket, your ability to pay the taxes on the conversion...2023-08-1503 minThe Daily MissionHow Much Is Enough? "The Psychology Of Money" Series Chapter 3: Never Enough. When Rich People Do Crazy Things.How Much Is Enough? "The Psychology Of Money" Series Chapter 3: Never Enough. When Rich People Do Crazy Things.2023-08-1104 minThe Daily MissionAn Astonishing Recent Shift in Money & Wealth in America. Do The Rich Keep Getting Richer?There are different ways to measure wealth. In this case, we’re talking about money and assets.
You can look at income.
You can look at overall wealth, or holdings, or assets.
You can also zero in on cash deposits.
After all, cash is king when you need it. When the prices of goods and services go up. When you have to feed your kids and get them school supplies. When opportunities arise and you hope to level up your own state of financial security.
A massive move happened fro...2023-08-1112 minThe Daily MissionBig Summer Blowout & Riding The Gnarly Inflation Wave!Some highlights
-> 8 stocks have driven 90% of the S&P 500’s return (but that may be changing)
-> Cost at the fuel pump is up
-> Inflation up just a bit. CPI came in today at +3.2% YoY, so a little bit higher than the June YoY #. We’ll go over those #’s in minute.
-> GDP is up. That’s on $1.5 trillion of government spending. Think of 3 big factors that affect GDP: consumption, investment, and gov’t spending. It’s that last item that has really juiced GDP of late. With the debt cei...2023-08-1112 minThe Daily MissionPart Tres Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.Part Tres Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.2023-07-2310 minThe Daily MissionPart Deux Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.Part Deux Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.2023-07-2307 minThe Daily MissionPart 1 Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.Part 1 of our firm's Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.2023-07-2207 minThe Daily MissionWelcome To The Job Fair! Would You Like Any Sauces To Go With That?A few points from the latest in jobs. Stuff you won't hear from financial media.2023-07-2004 minThe Daily MissionBuild a Skill. Your Confidence and Your Wallet Will Thank YouHaving skill at something, anything boosts self-esteem and gives a person a backup job.2023-07-2002 minThe Daily MissionWhen Stocks Are This Hot, You Have To Remember What It Takes To Break Even From LossesConsider risk management and what it takes to recover from a deep loss.2023-07-2005 minThe Daily MissionMarket Madness continued! (or “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”)Consumers are getting squeezed, cash levels are growing short, credit card usage is way up at a time when the average APR is 21%, and we now know that globally consumers, and not manufacturing, are carrying the economy.
The global economy seems to be cruising on one engine as it relies on services for momentum. Meanwhile, we’re in an industrial & manufacturing recession as factories slow production.
We’re seeing contraction across major economies in the latest #’s with the US index hitting its low for the year so far. And the euro-area has reached its lowest...2023-06-2308 minThe Daily Mission12 Steps To Financial SuccessThese are the 12 Steps we use in planning:1. Live on less than you earn. This is rule #1. Full stop. Nothing can happen beyond this until it’s upheld through lifestyle and budgeting.2. Make sure you have enough insurance coverage for all needs.3. Make sure you can cover basic deductibles.4. Set aside the first 1 month of emergency cash reserves, while making minimum payments to high-interest debt.5. Max out your employer match. You won’t get the opportunity again for this “free” money.6. Continue setting aside cash reserves until you reach 3-6 months, depending on the care...2023-06-0413 minThe Daily MissionCurrent thoughts on Bitcoin as trade vs buy-and-holdSome have asked our view on crypto.
Crypto market cap, minus BTC and ETH, is -60% since cycle peak in Nov 2021.
BTC still trades like a high-beta asset.
(Comments on Bitcoin further below, if you want to TL;DR and jump ahead)
🔹 I would not feel comfortable in a fiduciary role commenting on crypto, positive or negative, beyond what I've posted and put into a podcast to say that we're not in.
🔹 The amount of additional analysis needed at this point...2023-06-0407 minThe Daily MissionQuick Thoughts on The Mother Of All (Asset) BubblesIs “The Mother Of All (Asset) Bubbles” underway?2023-04-1705 minThe Daily MissionPsychology Of Money Chapter 2: Luck & RiskHave you ever looked at a situation, or a person, and wondered if and how luck plays into success?
Luck is real, as is risk. And these two factors show us the reality that every outcome in life has forces that exist in addition to, and beyond our individual effort.
Fact is, they both play a role in life and must be respected. We don’t know how much luck plays into anyone’s success. As Housel says, “when judging others, attributing success to luck makes you look jealous and mean. Even though we know it exi...2023-03-1706 minThe Daily MissionQuick note today on markets and global banking situationThis is a quick market note for today, given the news on global banking, risk, and signs that we could be seeing a sovereign debt crisis unfold.
Here’s a pertinent take from J. Kyle Bass this morning. If you don’t know Kyle Bass, he is the Dallas-based Hayman Capital hedge fund manager who first came to public prominence for shorting the subprime fallout. Since then he has become a nearly unmatched financial analyst on China.
One of his tweets this morning in regards to the global banking situation is as follow:
“First...2023-03-1502 minThe Daily MissionInflation Nation: A Change in the CalculationSince we’ve talked quite a bit about inflation over the course of this podcast, given that it launched last year, it’s important to note that the calculation of inflation just underwent a change.
And February’s CPI report was the first to be calculated using a new methodology.
Here’s the change.
Measuring CPI in 2022, you would take 2021+2020 consumption.
2023 = ONLY 2022 consumption.
Previously, CPI was calculated using 2 years of data.
Now it will be just 1.
From the page of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics page:2023-03-1502 minThe Daily MissionWhen Things BreakWhen the cost of capital goes up, and quickly, things break.
We've reached that point.
2023-03-1507 minThe Daily MissionCrypto Outro ManifestoI'm going drop a risk-grenade in the room and walk out.
When you deal w/publicly-traded securities, there's regulation. There's also (generally) liquidity and some sort of market value even if markets sell off. Yes, technically all stocks and all funds could go to zero. I think if that were to occur, society/civilization as we know it would cease to exist. Those left would be rendered back to hunter-gatherer status.
There's an unknown risk remaining for crypto markets and all associated coins, tokens, and investments.
What happens in the event that regulators step in and decide to shut the...2023-03-0902 minThe Daily MissionNO WAGES FOR YOU!Wages are "sticky". Once raised, they tend not to drop. Wages and benefits are also the largest cost a business has to cover.
Yes, inflation is hitting our wallets. And further squeezing a huge swath of the American public.
👉🏼 50% of Americans do not own a single share of stock, or an index fund, mutual fund, or ETF.
👉🏼 40% of Americans report that they could not come up with $400 in the event of an emergency.
👉🏼 More American than ever are reporting living paycheck-to-paycheck, including 6-figure households
👉🏼 Credit card balances are increasing 📈
👉🏼 Household savings are decreasing 📉
💡 side note: these households need help w/lifestyle mgt, budgeting, planning, and...2023-03-0903 minThe Daily MissionThe Psychology Of Money Series - Chapter 1: "No One's Crazy"Money in-and-of itself is just a tool. It’s a thing that is supposed to represent the exchange of energy that you put into work for its return. I personally believe that huge piles of cash stored away is a disservice in that it’s not being invested or put into flow, whereby more money can be made, people can start businesses and be funded, etc.
Money should not be the cause of losing your closest relationships. If this is the case, then one or both parties might want to rediscover and reprioritize their list of what they...2023-02-2508 minThe Daily MissionThe Daily Mission Market Week of Feb 20-24: FED TO THE MOON?!Earnings are continuing into further decline. 86 of 100 companies in the NASDAQ 100 are calling for in aggregate earnings decline.
Mortgage originations (purchase applications) are down 41% YoY. That’s the worst in 28 years.
The yield curve continues to signal trouble ahead.
Rates are continuing to go up.
Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
Credit is continuing to contract.
The bad news on employment is that more layoffs have been announced in areas such as tech and finance.
The good news on employment is that there are many job openings be...2023-02-2507 minThe Daily MissionWhy The US Consumer Thinks The Way They Do: The Psychology Of Money Series (Postscript)Why The US Consumer Thinks The Way They Do: The Psychology Of Money Series (Postscript)2023-02-1407 minThe Daily MissionIntro: The Psychology Of Money SeriesOur intro to a series inspired by The Psychology Of Money by Morgan Housel. We share insights from his book as a read-along. Outside of direct quotes and paraphrasing, the additional views and comments contained are our own. We are not involved with Morgan Housel, his firm, or his publisher. We have no conflicts of interest regarding his book. We receive no compensation of any kind for recommending it. We simply found it to be inspiring and useful and wanted to share it with you in the interest of helping to create a more educated, financially secure public. Seriously...2023-02-1104 minThe Daily MissionYour start to 2023: The madness of crowds, market makers, greed, short-squeezes, Fedfakes, & 0DTE options (those b*strds! they killed the market!)Your start to 2023: The madness of crowds, market makers, greed, short-squeezes, Fedfakes, & 0DTE options (those b*strds! they killed the market!)2023-02-1107 minThe Daily MissionIt's The Daily Mission relaunch! More episodes, more somewhat possibly moderately interesting stuff!We heard you speak via Spotify Wrapped and found out that we were in the top 15% most shared. Whoa! In the words of Ron Burgundy, "I don't believe you". Alas, here we are. Tripling down for 2023. Or tripping down. IDK. More content. More unique series. More somewhat possibly moderately above average stuff. Please listen and share. So my kids can be fed. Thank you.2023-02-1105 minThe Daily MissionFED FUN DAY and the hangover is real. Freeform thoughts on markets, wealth disparity, and being lied to by Wall Street.FED FUN DAY and the hangover is real. Freeform thoughts on markets, wealth disparity, and being lied to by Wall Street.2022-11-0410 minThe Daily MissionHalloween Markets Creature Feature - Enjoy the Party Punch, Don’t Buy The DramaAn update on markets, economy for the end of October2022-10-2907 minThe Daily MissionQuick hits on gold, including misconceptions you should knowQuick hits one gold, including misconceptions you should know2022-10-1504 minThe Daily MissionThoughts on where we are in markets and economy Sat Oct 15th 2022Thoughts on where we are in markets and economy Sat Oct 15th 20222022-10-1510 minThe Daily MissionWhile The Song Remains The SameStronger job reports = equities going lower.
Weaker job reports = equities going lower.
Meanwhile, people continue the myopic, binary-outcome argument about "when does the Fed pivot?"
Not only is a Fed "pivot" not occurring, even if it did it's not resuming a secular bull market in stocks.
➡️Especially not in the pandemic story stocks.
➡️Especially not in high-beta (high-risk), and high P/E's.
➡️Especially not in the worst credit, junk bonds, and the pile of excrement that exists across a decent portion of private equity/private investments.
✍🏼 Weaker...2022-10-0807 minThe Daily MissionThe Shite Has Hitteth Thine WindmillerWell, it’s getting real friends. Like the math said it would.
Now, what do we do with it.
First, we don’t panic. You were prepared , or you weren’t. If you were prepared, you’re sanguine. You’re accepting of the circumstances. If you weren’t prepared, that’s ok. Let’s talk about how you can approach this.
Second, turn off financial media. They’re only going to stoke emotions, resulting in things like (but not limited to) getting submerged in the FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), the FOMO (fear of missing out), t...2022-09-2905 minThe Daily MissionDual Hurricane ForcesThere’s another hurricane that is strengthening. In the form of a global economic downturn. It’s affecting our shores and moving up in Cat strength. Prepare wisely for this one because its looks to be a Category 5 storm, the effects of which could last the next 4 quarters.
Unfortunately, the industry hasn’t prepared you for this. Big banks, financial media, the inexperienced social media personalities, even the Fed, Treasury, and White House. It’s been disappointing.
You will see green on the screen, as these long down cycles are interspersed with bear market bounces. We’ve al...2022-09-2803 minThe Daily MissionTHE RISK YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAVETHE RISK YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAVE
Move over FANG. The new crew is AMATA.
Remember “FAANG?” Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google? They were the talk for quite some time. But, things always change. Netflix and Facebook dropped out of the top 5, Google changed its name, and Tesla became the new darling of the market.
The new crew, let’s call it AMATA, is Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet.
These 5 stocks compose:
42% of the NASDAQ 100
22% of the S&P500
That is a high and conc...2022-09-2606 minThe Daily MissionMarkets are not in good shape. A quick update for week ending Fri, Sep 23rdA quick & relevant update on markets for Fri, Sep 23rd
None of what you see happening right now is a buy signal.
The dollar is ripping higher. This is not good for the global economy.
Yields/rates are soaring, with a high rate-of-change.
The downside/low-end mathematical range for equity markets is dropping.
You must understand the importance of bonds and currencies in determining what's happening in equity/stock markets.
This is something you won't often hear, won't be taught by media.
Volatility is jumping...2022-09-2305 minThe Daily MissionThere’s No Shame In Your Money GameShame has no place in personal finance.
This goes for individuals, and especially couples.
The moment that shame starts to emerge, we wreck it. It is antithetical to our process.
Our work is to align and help redirect. Align in that we understand perspectives. Redirect as in helping people to rethink and rewrite their story.
Who of us has not made money mistakes? Most of us were not equipped with proper money tools. Families don’t understand. Schools don’t teach financial literacy. Or at least haven’t until recently.
I th...2022-09-2203 minThe Daily Mission7 things you CAN control right now with respect to your money and the longer term effects of inflation1. Make household budgetary changes. It’s not easy, but it can be done. In other words, save more. Spend less than you’re earning. Self-discipline. Cash-flow planning. Think like a business. Create more margin.
2. Adjust risk in your investment portfolios. What worked for the last 12 years is not what works now.
3. Look for opportunities to ask for a raise. Or if you’re in a business development / sales role, you know what to do. Work smarter and harder.
4. Look for ways to improve your skill set to lead toward higher earnings
5. Start...2022-09-2203 minThe Daily MissionWhat is The Daily Mission Podcast?A quick description of The Daily Mission Podcast.2022-08-2501 minThe Daily MissionThe time is now. Get efficient. Don’t wait.It’s time to get efficient. Don’t wait.
Current caution flags, and ideas on improving your financial situation.2022-08-1907 minThe Daily MissionSometimes you just need to disconnect (and we're all better for it!)Sometimes you just need time and space.
The Daily Mission is back from the wilds of the Sangre de Cristos to reengage with the world and all of its noise.2022-08-1702 minThe Daily MissionStacks On Stacks. The Good, Bad, and the Fugly (of cash).Let's talk about cash, inflation, and some ideas this year.2022-08-0407 minThe Daily MissionDolla Dolla Bill (is a wrecking ball, y'all)The US Dollar. Yankee Fiat. cash, bills, paper, greenbacks, moolah, scratch, dough, bread, cheddar. dead prezzies.
No matter what you like to call it, that dollar dollar bill is a wrecking ball, y’all.
It's in high demand, globally. And that can create some pretty big problems in the short term.
Let's talk about why in short order.2022-08-0308 min
The Daily MissionWhy you should probably think like a strategist, rather than a tacticianWhat you think “should be” versus what “is” when it comes to investing, and why you should probably think more like a strategist and less like a tactician.2022-07-3003 minThe Daily MissionHow did hedge fund managers become so rich? (and how the conditions to support this are changing)Two factors more than any other supported the growth of the hedge fund titan era:
Easy money for leverage, and getting paid under the carried Interest loophole.
But both of those factors are in the process ofd changing. And quickly.2022-07-3005 minThe Daily MissionThoughts on inflation, markets, and the Fed for the last week of July 2022It's been a crazy week in markets. Get the storyline you're not likely to hear from mainstream financial media.2022-07-3004 min