Shows
Geopolitical CousinsForecast 2026Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos--Timestamps:...
2025-12-2457 min
The Jacob Shapiro PodcastRight Wing AscendantElohim Monard joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to discuss Latin America. A massive geopolitical integration in LatAm is quietly underway, fueled by a "Trumpian" rightward shift sweeping from the Southern Cone to the Rio Grande. As traditional alliances fracture, a new "practical ideology" is emerging to unite the hemisphere through hard-fist security tactics and aggressive economic pragmatism. But beneath this surface-level alignment lies a volatile paradox: a burgeoning "low-intensity war" targeting non-state actors as a pretext for permanent emergency. From the weaponization of fentanyl to state-sanctioned privateers, the line between regional stability and calculated chaos...
2025-12-2253 minGeopolitical CousinsCocaine CowboysLook, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.--
2025-12-171h 12Geopolitical CousinsDo BetterThe global discourse has hit a new low: political commentators are creating content out of a YouTube moron’s mean-spirited quest for clicks. Nick Fuentes, please, for the love of god, do better. Marko and Jacob drill past the outrage to ask why "mean" has become the default setting for public life.Then, Marko takes on the herculean task of defending the US' new National Security Strategy - which correctly identifies the need for a vital Europe, even if its authors got their core immigration data from clickbait white-woke channels. Finally, the real game: the US-Mexico-China trade tr...
2025-12-131h 08The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Return of Imperial StrategyPower gets loud when it’s insecure. Strategy becomes theater. And ideology sneaks in wearing policy jargon. The White House's newest U.S. National Security Strategy claims realism while quietly demanding dominance, preaching restraint while laying groundwork for escalation. Civilizational panic collides with imperial muscle, producing a document that wants everything, everywhere, all at once. Van Jackson, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington, sits down with Jacob Shapiro to chat about how culture war thinking seeps into grand strategy, why “prioritization” turns into mission creep, and what this blueprint signals for allies, adversaries, and a worl...
2025-12-1357 minGeopolitical CousinsCtrl, Alt, DelLet's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins(01:14) - Racc...
2025-12-081h 32The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Geography of a Missing DaughterBook episode! What happens when a policy meant to shape a nation reaches into the most intimate corners of a family’s life? Journalist Barbara Demick'sDaughters of the Bamboo Grove becomes a prism for a China where babies vanish, families fracture, and two identical lives grow up worlds apart. One twin speaks Mandarin, the other English. One hides in a bamboo grove; the other lands in Texas. Demick joins The Jacob Shapiro Show to explore the lives shaped, and misshaped, by China's restrictive one-child policy. Shapiro and Demick probe the emotional aftershocks of separation, the uneasy collision of...
2025-12-0252 minGeopolitical CousinsComrades and FuehrersRising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's...
2025-11-261h 29The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Geopolitics of Personalized MoneyAs global finance strains under shifting power structures, author and fintech thinker Emmanuel Daniel, founder of TAB Global, argues that the real disruption isn’t technological - it’s personal. This episode explores finance as a geopolitical arena where identity, data, and sovereignty reshape who holds leverage. What happens when individuals, not institutions, become the organizing unit of the monetary system? And how does that rewire cross-border power, trust, and risk? A provocative look at the future architecture of money.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:15) - Emmanuel Daniel's Book and Key Insights
2025-11-251h 04The Jacob Shapiro PodcastDemand ShockTariffs promise protection but unleash deeper shocks - reshaping demand, distorting prices, and testing the resilience of an already-strained economic system. Rob Larity and Jacob unpack the widening gap between political narratives and material reality, probing how erratic policy, volatile markets, and institutional guardrails collide. They ask whether the U.S. is entering a new era of economic fragility, what signals truly matter beneath the noise, and how global outliers like Chile reveal the stakes of navigating a fractured, multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:46) - Discussion on San Francisco Fed...
2025-11-221h 01The Jacob Shapiro Podcast"What the West Should Learn from China"China’s rise is often framed as a geopolitical contest, but Kaiser Y Kuo, host of the Sinica Podcast, pushes us to confront something deeper: what if China’s transformation exposes the West’s blind spots about modernity, power, and progress itself? Jacob and Kaiser wrestle with uncomfortable parallels between America’s Gilded Age and China’s present, the myths we cling to about innovation and identity, and the way global narratives harden into self-soothing fictions. It’s a challenge to rethink both China - and ourselves.--Referenced in the Show:Kaiser's "Great Reckon...
2025-11-201h 09Geopolitical CousinsStarting Five: US PresidentsJacob and Marko finally caved to the mob on X and did what everyone (one guy who asked nicely) keeps yelling at them to do - rank the top five geopolitical U.S. presidents and the bottom five disasters. Not the best presidents. Not the most “inspirational.” The most geopolitically competent… and the ones who should never have been allowed within 500 feet of foreign policy.It gets spicy. Lincoln shows up with ruthless brilliance, Polk rolls in like the ultimate expansionist psychopath, Teddy swings a big stick (and probably breaks a few ribs), and then we get to the...
2025-11-182h 03The Jacob Shapiro Podcast“The Longevity Dividend, or, Why You Shouldn’t Bathe in the Blood of Virgins”Aging quietly shapes everything - our economies, our politics, our families, and the horizon of what nations can become. Jacob and longevity expert Dylan Livingston, founder of the Alliance for Longevity Initiatives (A4LI), take a dive into the emerging science that treats aging not as fate, but as a solvable biological problem with staggering geopolitical consequences. The two explore how extending healthy human life could transform productivity, rebalance global power, upend healthcare economics, and challenge long-held assumptions about decline. At its core is a question: what happens when longevity becomes a public policy frontier, not a personal fantasy?
2025-11-171h 02Geopolitical CousinsCommunist ReaganPower tilts, voter moods, and economic pressures collide as shifting swing-state margins, rising price levels, and clashing visions of populism redefine the boundaries of U.S. politics. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro traces how competing narratives on inflation, governance, and national identity shape the struggles within both major parties, while global tensions - from tariff battles to uneasy U.S.-China rapprochement - raise the stakes. At its core lies a question: can the political center hold when every lever of power is pulled toward extremes?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:58...
2025-11-121h 34The Jacob Shapiro Podcast“ChatGPT is so mid”, or, Why AI Won’t Change the WorldTechnological revolutions rarely unfold the way we imagine. From the steam engine to AI, each wave reshapes who creates value - and who gets left behind. What if artificial intelligence isn’t a revolution at all, but a late-stage innovation like shipping containers - transforming efficiency without changing the underlying system? Jerry Neumann joins the Jacob Shapiro Podcast and questions whether openness still drives progress, whether innovation can survive without risk, and why the next great leap forward might not be digital, but something we haven’t yet learned to see.--Timestamps:(00:00) - In...
2025-11-1059 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Legality of Trump’s Tariffs and U.S. Trade PowerAs the Supreme Court takes up one of the most consequential trade cases in decades, former Biden administration official and Yale-trained lawyer Peter Harrell joins Jacob L. for a real-time breakdown of what’s at stake. Together, they cut through the legal jargon to reveal how a 1977 emergency powers statute became the foundation for Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime—and why the Court’s decision could reshape U.S. trade, markets, and global power. A crash course in law, economics, and political brinkmanship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:45) - Supreme Court and Tari...
2025-11-0651 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Shrimp Among WhalesSouth Korea stands at the crossroads of global power - caught between China, the United States, Japan, and its unpredictable neighbor to the north. Jacob Shapiro and Professor Jeffrey Robertson unpack how a nation long described as “the shrimp among whales” has learned to navigate the world’s toughest geopolitical waters. From shifting alliances and nuclear restraint to the economic promise of unification, this episode reveals how Korea’s pragmatism may shape the future of Asia.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:45) - Professor Jeff Robinson(02:08) - Jeff's Background and Experience in South...
2025-11-0351 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Rightist InternationalWhen U.S. aircraft carriers appear off Venezuela’s coast, it’s not just saber-rattling - it’s a mirror held up to a century of empire. Jacob and LatAm analyst Elohim Monard dissect what’s really driving Washington’s renewed aggression in the Caribbean, from Trump and Rubio’s internal power struggle - to the shadow of China, the lure of oil, and the global rise of hard-line politics. Together, they trace the fault lines connecting Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, and the United States... and ask whether a new “right-wing international” is already reshaping the Americas.--Timestamps...
2025-10-311h 06The Jacob Shapiro PodcastSovereignty vs. Swipe FeesWhen a Brazilian payment system threatens U.S. credit-card profits, it exposes a deeper fracture in the global economy: sovereignty versus rent-seeking, innovation versus control. Jacob and Rob trace the fight over PIX from Brasília to Washington and beyond -into currency wars, trade tantrums, and the strange new politics of the Western Hemisphere. What does it mean when the world’s “rules-based order” starts punishing countries for building better systems?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:50) - Halloween in Paris vs. New Orleans(01:40) - Current Events and Volatil...
2025-10-271h 00Geopolitical CousinsReverse NixonSanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions(02:02...
2025-10-261h 50The Jacob Shapiro PodcastA Wild New Era of Japanese PoliticsJapan rewired its politics: a power shift, a woman at the helm, and a minority government forced to bargain for every vote. What follows when high approval collides with hard math - aging demographics, weak yen, and defense budgets racing past old taboos? Analyst Tobias Harris, author of The Iconoclast and writer of Observing Japan, joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack the country’s most surprising election in years - one that produced its first female prime minister and a government held together by negotiation. Expect sharper debates on security, energy, food, and China ties, with So...
2025-10-2457 minGeopolitical CousinsThe Illusion of DecouplingGlobal trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to func...
2025-10-151h 19The Jacob Shapiro PodcastLeverage on Leverage on LeverageGold prices are soaring, private equity is unraveling, and data centers have become the next speculative frontier. Beneath all of it lies a simple question: what happens when faith in liquidity, stability, and infinite growth begins to fray? From central banks hoarding bullion to insurers gambling on AI infrastructure, the same story unfolds—risk disguised as resilience. And somewhere between coffee tariffs and capital flows, you can glimpse the new shape of a global economy learning to live without certainty.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:03) - Catch-Up and Current Events(02:09...
2025-10-101h 00Geopolitical CousinsThe New Cold PeaceWhat happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations(02:28...
2025-10-081h 41The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Government Is Coming For Your [insert asset here]What if money could make you freer instead of more dependent? Matt McClintock joins the pod to dive into Bitcoin’s evolution from digital experiment to geopolitical force - a technology challenging governments, redefining sovereignty, and reshaping how value moves across the world. Matt and Jacob explore what “freedom money” really means, why personal sovereignty now collides with state power, and how the struggle between fiat and crypto reveals the future of economics, trust, and control in a multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:20) - Addressing Listener Concerns...
2025-10-071h 01The Jacob Shapiro PodcastTechno-Feudal EstatesJacob Shapiro is joined by Matt Pines, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the accelerating convergence of Bitcoin, AI, geopolitics, and energy. Pines argues that technological change is happening faster than existing frameworks can manage, pushing once-fringe ideas into mainstream policy debates. They explore how AI and Bitcoin are straining U.S. infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, and what this means for national security and economic stability. The discussion also considers the rise of “techno-feudal” elites, political backlash risks, and whether America can maintain an edge against China’s state-driven infrastructure build-out. Pines closes with reflections on Bit...
2025-09-301h 03The Jacob Shapiro PodcastAlone in the Insane AsylumJacob Shapiro reconnects with Chase Taylor (of Pinecone Macro) for a wide-ranging conversation on U.S. competitiveness. The two dig into why electricity costs, labor shortages, and weak industrial policy matter far more than endless chatter about tariffs or rate cuts. They trade scenarios on how soaring power demand, grid fragility, and demographic decline could shape America’s future against China. Along the way, they touch on robots, nearshoring to Mexico, farm policy, and why simple, obvious analysis is often the most powerful--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:43) - Contrarian Views on US...
2025-09-241h 06Geopolitical Cousins17 Seconds or LessMarko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.--Timestamps:(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine(05:06...
2025-09-231h 24The Jacob Shapiro PodcastYouth Against GovernmentJacob steps away from his usual roster of experts to bring listeners a first-person account from Kathmandu. Law student and human rights scholar Prasansha Rimal reflects on Nepal’s fragile democracy, its youth-led protests, and the deeper frustration with corruption and stagnant politics. She describes how social media both sparked dissent and revealed inequality, while broader grievances fueled unrest. Jacob underscores the courage of her testimony, noting that her perspective adds invaluable, if subjective, insight into Nepal’s ongoing political transformation--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(03:21) - Introducing Prasansha Rima...
2025-09-2246 minThe Jacob Shapiro Podcast“Bitcoin is a Miracle”Jacob and Rob reunite after a long break, tracing the threads between a dizzying run of global events and markets that seem strangely calm. Jacob frames the conversation with parallels to the 1920s, questioning whether today’s mix of political volatility, speculative fervor, and rapid technological change echoes past cycles of boom and fracture. Alongside Rob’s market perspective, he explores AI’s slowdown, labor shortages, and the looming electricity crunch, before pulling the discussion toward deeper questions of resilience, innovation, and Bitcoin’s place in geopolitics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome(00...
2025-09-191h 13Geopolitical CousinsElon and OrwellPokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering...
2025-09-161h 34The Jacob Shapiro PodcastDeterrence by PunishmentJacob Shapiro sits down with Jacek Bartosiak, founder of Strategy&Future, to discuss Russia’s drone incursions into Polish airspace and their broader implications. From Warsaw’s perspective, deterrence has failed, pushing debate toward a “politics of punishment.” Bartosiak outlines the fracturing of NATO credibility, the rise of an Intermarium bloc from the Baltics to Turkey, and Ukraine’s surprising military innovations. Together, they explore how Poland, Ukraine, and regional allies may reshape Europe’s security landscape amid U.S. retreat.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:22) - Current Geopolitical Tensions in...
2025-09-1555 minGeopolitical CousinsPolitical Violence And TheaterJacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk
2025-09-111h 17The Jacob Shapiro PodcastSoft Dictatorship, Big TariffsAfter a month-long hiatus recovering from illness, Jacob Shapiro returns to the podcast joined by recurring guest Elohim Monard. Together, they examine the transactional nature of U.S.–Latin America relations, debating whether the region is part of a declining American empire and how leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula navigate Washington’s shifting policies. Their discussion ranges from Brazil’s geopolitical role to Venezuela’s fragility, highlighting the Latin Americanization of U.S. politics and the uncertain trajectory of American power--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro & Personal Update(00:59) - Elohim and Conversa...
2025-09-091h 15Geopolitical CousinsWe're So Back (It's So Over)After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back(00:11) - Ja...
2025-09-041h 25The Jacob Shapiro PodcastPissing in the Public PoolJacob and Rob dig into Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, exposing the political theater surrounding government data. They explore labor hoarding, CPI distortions, and the fragility of public statistical institutions in a polarized, AI-saturated world. The conversation spans historical context, philosophical takes on truth and data, and the coming war for proprietary information. They close with a baffling shift in U.S.-India trade policy—and a call for help understanding what the hell is going on.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:44) - Employment Data(02:42) - Tr...
2025-08-0856 minGeopolitical CousinsWhat The F*ck Is a Framework Trade Agreement???Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.--Timestam...
2025-07-311h 15The Jacob Shapiro PodcastFiscal Reality and Financial RepressionJacob Shapiro sits down with Luke Gromen for a wide-ranging discussion about AI’s disruption, the U.S. fiscal outlook, and global power dynamics. Jacob noted that AI is rapidly commoditizing data and could upend white-collar industries, but he and Luke agreed that intuition and discerning quality data points remain critical. They dug into Europe’s strategic weaknesses, the U.S.-China rivalry, and vulnerabilities in supply chains like rare earths. On the U.S. fiscal front, Luke argued that the government must financially repress bondholders, with stablecoins potentially becoming a tool for yield curve control. They closed with a lo...
2025-07-291h 02Geopolitical CousinsPutin’s Out of Time, Not TroopsJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18...
2025-07-2154 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe White Nationalist Social DemocracyJacob interviews Dr. Van Jackson, an international relations scholar specializing in East Asian and Pacific security. They discuss the accelerating pace and volatility of U.S. foreign policy, characterizing Trump-era actions as part of a broader counter-revolutionary, oligarchic project. Van critiques both major U.S. parties and highlights the risk of diversionary wars as legitimacy crises grow. They explore the geopolitics of Iran, Israel, and China, and conclude with insights on North Korea and potential U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea, outlining a rare “win-win-win” scenario for all parties on the Korean Peninsula.--Time...
2025-07-181h 09The Jacob Shapiro PodcastOur Post-Neoliberal Moment (w/ Mike Konczal)Jacob welcomes economic policy expert Mike Konczal for a wide-ranging conversation on American capitalism, industrial policy, and the evolving role of the state. They explore how the Biden administration’s economic agenda challenges decades of neoliberal orthodoxy, discuss the implications of increased public investment, and examine what it means to have a “pro-worker” economy. Konczal brings deep insight into the politics and pragmatics of economic reform, offering a nuanced look at the shifting landscape of U.S. economic policymaking.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:17) - Disclaimer and Encouragement to Listen...
2025-07-1152 minGeopolitical CousinsRealpolitik with Range (Trade Value Leaders Index P2)Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, w...
2025-07-102h 06The Jacob Shapiro PodcastOur Currency, Your ProblemJacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:13) - Discussion on Int...
2025-07-041h 09Geopolitical CousinsThe Trade Value Leader IndexJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro...
2025-07-031h 26The Jacob Shapiro PodcastUnpacking the U.S.-Pakistan Reset (with Fahd Humayun)Jacob Shapiro speaks with Fahd Humayun about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Middle East. They discuss Pakistan’s perspective on the Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-Pakistan relations under a potential second Trump term, and the strategic implications of Pakistan’s recent military and diplomatic moves. The conversation also explores India-Pakistan tensions, the lowering threshold for military escalation, the role of China in regional alliances, and the internal political challenges facing Pakistan. Humayun emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, stability, and cautious optimism about Pakistan’s political and democratic future.--Timestamps:...
2025-06-3054 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Largest Standing Army In EuropeJacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(04:51) - Markets!(16:04) - Japan's Economic...
2025-06-2749 minGeopolitical CousinsPostmortem on the Iran-Israel WarJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Postmortem on t...
2025-06-2657 minGeopolitical CousinsAmerica Strikes IranJacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes(01:14) - US-I...
2025-06-221h 24The Jacob Shapiro PodcastLatin America's Moment in Global ChaosJacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin Am...
2025-06-2047 minGeopolitical CousinsTo Bomb or Not To BombJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.--Timestam...
2025-06-191h 42The Jacob Shapiro PodcastTariffs, Trust, and TokyoIn this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minist...
2025-06-1848 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastIsrael Strikes Iran P2: Analyst Kamran BokhariJacob Shapiro is joined by Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari to analyze the rapidly unfolding Israeli military strikes on Iran. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel’s targeted attacks on IRGC leadership, the potential for regime instability in Tehran, and the calculus behind Washington’s response. Bokhari introduces the concept of “evolutionary regime change” and outlines scenarios ranging from internal coups to regional realignment. Together, they explore whether Israel’s aim is nuclear deterrence or regime collapse, and what options remain for an Iranian response. It’s a fast-moving, high-stakes conversation on Middle Eastern geopolitics.--Timesta...
2025-06-1333 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastIsrael Strikes Iran P1: Security Expert Hamidreza AziziJacob Shapiro speaks with Iranian security expert Hamidreza Azizi to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran. They explore the strategic implications of Israel’s multi-phase assault, including the assassination of top IRGC commanders, the targeting of nuclear and missile infrastructure, and the collapse of Iran’s proxy network. Azizi outlines Iran’s limited options—from potential retaliation to a pivot toward nuclear armament—and discusses the psychological warfare at play. With U.S. involvement uncertain and regional dynamics shifting, this conversation offers a critical framework for understanding one of the most volatile escalations in the Middle East in recent memor...
2025-06-1329 minGeopolitical CousinsIsrael Strikes IranJacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.--Tim...
2025-06-131h 02Geopolitical CousinsManufactured ChaosMarko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-dri...
2025-06-111h 33The Jacob Shapiro PodcastStablecoins and the Geopolitics of TrustJacob and Rob respond to listener feedback about negativity by focusing on positive trends, including declining violent crime and drug overdose rates in the U.S. They then dive into a high-level exploration of stablecoins—what they are, why they matter, and the potential risks and geopolitical implications of their rise. They compare the U.S. approach to stablecoins with the digital currency strategies of China and the EU, unpack the difference between innovation and systemic risk, and ask whether the erosion of trust in financial systems is worth the trade-off. A thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation on money, power, and vo...
2025-06-091h 16The Jacob Shapiro PodcastUkrainian Drone Attack and the Future of WarJacob welcomes Sim Tack, a military analyst at Force Analysis, to break down the shifting battlefield dynamics in Ukraine. Together, they unpack Ukraine’s evolving tactics, Russia’s slow but grinding advances, and the logistical and manpower challenges both sides face. Jacob pushes for a bigger picture: what this phase of the war tells us about the future of U.S. involvement, Europe’s strategic posture, and why the world should be watching Eastern Ukraine more closely. Sim offers clarity without sensationalism, grounding the conversation in facts, maps, and on-the-ground realities. It's a sobering, sharp look at a war still...
2025-06-0653 minGeopolitical CousinsThe New Age of Making Stuff (or Pretending To) Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things som...
2025-06-061h 46The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Juice Is Already Killing UsJacob and Rob dive into the shifting mood in U.S. markets, as post-"Liberation Day" volatility gives way to a more constrained and uncertain fiscal landscape. They unpack the massive implications of the Trump administration’s budget bill, surging yields, and declining investor confidence. The conversation then pivots to Chinese biotech, where Jacob raises the alarm about America’s declining edge in R&D, regulation, and talent retention. What follows is a sobering look at cultural skepticism, institutional decay, and whether the U.S. still believes in scientific progress. It’s glum, sharp, and deeply thoughtful. They promise to be...
2025-05-231h 05The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Most Terrifying Insect You’ve Never Heard OfMadison Darbyshire makes her first appearance on the podcast to discuss the screwworm – what it is, why it’s threatening U.S. ranchers again, and why all of this could have been prevented. Come for awareness of an emergent problem; stay for the geopolitical explanation for why Texas is the ancestral home of the American cowboy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(02:46) - Understanding Screwworms(04:35) - History of Screwworm Eradication(09:07) - Challenges and Costs of Eradication(18:27) - Screwworm's Return and Current Issues(23:20) - Geopolitical and Envi...
2025-05-1656 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Froth of GriftIn this episode, Jacob Shapiro sits down with Matt Pines, who somehow manages to be both a national security thinker and a Bitcoin whisperer, to talk through the Trump administration’s pivot toward crypto, why Bitcoin has suddenly gone strategic, and what it tells us about where the global economy might be headed. They dig into the politics, the policy confusion, and the deeper structural shifts behind the headlines. From U.S.-China competition to financial fragmentation, Matt breaks it down without hype - and helps us try to make sense of how a meme coin presidency ended up bu...
2025-05-121h 07The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Reverse Currency Crisis That Isn’tThis week, Jacob’s caffeinated and Rob is just trying to keep us on track as the duo dive into the so-called “Asian reverse currency crisis,” a spike in Asian FX that’s less a crisis and more the result of twenty-five years of carry trades finally snapping. We break down what it means for the dollar, for diversification, and for the poor bastards running Taiwanese insurance portfolios. Then: Trump wants tariffs on foreign movies (seriously), Saudi Arabia starts pumping oil like it’s 2019, and we finish with why empty shelves might be the most underpriced risk in markets right now...
2025-05-091h 07The Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Indus Waters Are Getting HotKamran Bokhari answers the bat signal to join Jacob Shapiro for a wide-ranging conversation on the spike in India-Pakistan tensions following the Kashmir attack - and why it’s not just business as usual. They unpack the strategic logic (or lack thereof) behind Pakistan’s moves, India’s dilemma over deterrence, and the escalating risk of regional miscalculation. They also dig into the broader Middle East: Iran’s negotiations, Houthi missiles, and whether the U.S. is quietly brokering a regional reset. Kamran sees threads tying it all together; We're still trying to figure out if that’s optimism or a warni...
2025-05-0752 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastLatinos for Trump (But Make It Complicated)Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/ --In this episode, Jacob sits down with Elohim Monard for a sharp, layered conversation about Hispanic support for Trump, the politics of deportation, and how authoritarianism creeps in under the banner of law and order. They talk about prisons as geopolitical tools, from El Salvador’s extreme model to France’s cocaine-fueled chaos, and whether Trump’s policies are building a regime of fear among immigrants and international students. Elohim brings the receipts, the nuance, and the global view. They also get into AI, startup governmen...
2025-05-0258 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Pahalgam Terrorist AttackJacob Shapiro is joined by Akshar Patel from The Emissary to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between India and Pakistan after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. They cover what happened, why this attack is different, and why India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is such a big geopolitical shift. Akshar breaks down Pakistan’s internal fractures, India’s military limitations, and how water is becoming a pressure point in South Asia. This isn’t just saber-rattling... it’s a slow burn with existential stakes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:21) - Current...
2025-04-3058 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastGo Where The Fiscal IsChase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump’s tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China’s fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA pl...
2025-04-2856 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastThe Economy Has COVIDIn this wide-ranging episode, Jacob and Rob check in on markets, discuss the issue of Federal Reserve independence, and somehow end up talking about the future of the Catholic Church. We are large – we contain multitudes!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(02:55) - Market Trends and Economic Indicators(04:15) - Freight Data and Economic Concerns(07:42) - Historical Context: Market Reactions(16:44) - The Fed's Role and Independence(26:40) - Trump's Economic Approval Ratings(27:29) - Debating Economic vs Cultural Factors(29:45) - Hypothetical Scenarios for Jerome Po...
2025-04-2551 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastSeparating Signal From Noise (with Rob!)American Airlines can’t keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capi...
2025-04-1153 minThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastBlessing by BlowtorchVance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics(11:45) – Biofuels(14:32) – Debt/land prices(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves(30:42) – Will USDA have po...
2025-04-071h 02The Jacob Shapiro PodcastRiding on the Hog of a Fiscal OrgyJacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios(13:15) - US Fiscal Po...
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