Shows
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed ChairRenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed appointments, and ACA subsidies will shape 2026 policy risk. Just in time for the Holiday's, RenMac unveils its swag store, supporting a great caus...
2025-11-2842 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked NightsRenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain as Washington heads into Thanksgiving.
2025-11-2139 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) TensionsRenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.
2025-11-1440 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be GoodRenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momentum markets, Pavlick tracks Trump’s Asia trade push, rare earth strategy, and the prolonged D.C. shutdown and Dutta warns that slowing incomes and housing could test consumer confidence as markets bet on “just the right amount of wrong.”
2025-10-3153 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bubble BandwagonsRenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkmanship ahead of his Asia trip, the politics of aprolonged shutdown, and what to watch in global negotiations as markets juggle seasonality, sentiment, and softening data.
2025-10-2431 min
On The Tape with Danny MosesJeff deGraaf: The Market That Continues To Defy GravityIn this episode of the On the Tape Podcast, host Danny Moses discusses market insights with Jeff deGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research. Jeff elaborates on the structure and focus of his firm, the team's expertise, and their approach to research. The conversation covers Jeff's career journey from Merrill Lynch to Lehman Brothers and eventually founding RenMac. They delve into market dynamics, covering the impact of macroeconomic conditions on financials, private equity, and various sectors including healthcare, technology, and small caps. Jeff provides technical analysis of gold, beta stocks, and evaluates the potential of a market bubble...
2025-10-2245 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Shooting The HostagesRenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid geopolitical tension and market froth.
2025-10-1741 min
Beyond the Benchmark by EFGEP 127: What the Market Cycle Clock is telling us with Jeff deGraafRenowned market technician Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and CEO of RenMac, helps explain what time it is on RenMac's Market Cycle Clock, and what it signals for equities. Alongside discussing sector opportunities, he also lays out the case for why he believes we’re in a broad-based global bull market, despite near term consolidation risks. Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Researchhttps://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/EFGAM:...
2025-10-0923 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed ShakeoutThis week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor market, small caps leading equities higher, China’s breakout, and client psychology in a too-good-to-be-true market. Plus: Josh previews the Future Proof Festival, and the crew debates SPAC mania, data center jobs, and what’s on the horizon fo...
2025-08-2948 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside PredictionsRenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.
2025-07-0426 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
2025-05-1636 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Strategic UncertaintyRenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.
2025-05-0242 min
Know More. Risk Better.Correction or Chaos? Technical Insights with RenMac’s Jeff deGraafIn this episode of "Know More. Risk Better," Zachary Griffiths welcomes Jeff deGraaf, chairman and co-founder of Renaissance Macro Research. Jeff draws from 35 years of experience to provide technical insights amid the recent equity market selloff. They discuss key metrics he’s focused on to determine if equities are oversold and when it is time to add risk back to portfolios. Jeff describes his journey beginning on Wall Street as a fundamental analyst and what drew him to take a more imaginative approach to capital markets including using technical analysis to understand what the market is ‘saying’.
2025-03-1348 min
Forward GuidanceThe Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraafIn this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!__Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLCFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
2025-03-0544 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Policy UncertaintyRenmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.
2025-02-2826 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat CampRenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-Bag
2025-02-0735 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMsJeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.
2025-01-0327 min
Beyond the Benchmark by EFGEP 108: Understanding Market Trends with Jeff deGraafIn this episode of Beyond the Benchmark, Moz is joined by Jeff deGraaf, a leading technical analyst from RenMac, for an insightful discussion on 2024’s market performance and opportunities in 2025, as well as touching on China’s resilience and the global influence of the US dollar.Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Researchhttps://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/EFGAM:https://www.newcapital.com/Impo...
2024-12-1139 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-RateJeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward
2024-11-0825 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: China TurnsNeil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
2024-09-2719 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk ThruWith Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
2024-08-3017 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter DeemerBullish Sentiment Thru the AgesJeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.
2024-07-0622 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a LowJeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.
2024-04-1905 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed FiascoHoward joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying opportunities than tech, and the politics behind the upcoming Republican primary in SC and the Democrat pr...
2024-02-2319 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Yield DependencyJeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
2023-11-2417 minBeyond the Benchmark by EFGEP 83: Jeff deGraaf on seasonality and market sentiment | 1st November 2023Recorded 1st November 2023. Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Research shares his thoughts on current market sentiment and seasonality plays going into the winter. Jeff shares what RenMac's Market Cycle Clock indicators are saying, balanced against a more bearish yield impact model and a surprisingly strong US economy.Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Researchhttps://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/EFGAM:
2023-11-2146 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black HoleNeil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
2022-08-2613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
2022-07-2214 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell PanicsJeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
2022-06-1717 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: I’ve Had a Bad Days, but Not Like BidenRenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.
2022-01-1415 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Focus on the FedThe RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.
2022-01-0718 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: That Damned Yield CurveRenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”
2021-12-1717 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big StickNeil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.
2021-12-1015 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Data Won’t Dissuade FedRenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kamala or Pete be the heir apparent, the history of inflation and the Fed as well as next week’s inflation data.
2021-12-0316 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Moz AfzalMoz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportunities Fund. He has been instrumental in building EFG's global footprint and shares with us how he has continued to manage money effectively while building a trusted team of analysts and PMs around him. Here is our conversation...
2021-11-2036 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The FedThe RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.
2021-11-1918 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Will Need a Stiff SpineRenmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the relative strength of cyclicals versus weakness in defensive names.
2021-11-1214 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Economy and Markets Melt Up In Q4RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout in small cap stocks and the re-opening trade, and what the strong GOP performance in this week’s elections (NJ/VA) mean for current fiscal negotiations.
2021-11-0517 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with David FingoldDavid Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more than $13.5B in AUM is unique. David knows what it is to run a business successfully, how to finance it, and consequently what it means to invest in one. He's a bottoms-up stock picker who worries top-down, and his success speaks volumes.
2021-10-3059 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: D’s Fumble in the Red ZoneRenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was better), inflation expectations, gold and Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
2021-10-2915 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s FingersJeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.
2021-10-2213 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Putin Is World’s Most Powerful ManJoin the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Putin, the inflation boom, and how Biden’s climate policy discourages fossil fuel production.
2021-10-1513 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Won’t Dissuade the FedRenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues, Manchin drops the F-bomb and the importance of better or worse versus good or bad on Wall Street.
2021-10-0817 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Self-inflicted Wounds from WashingtonRenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlogs and end-user demand, the abundant oversold conditions in industry groups, rising yields and the bullish complacency found in corporate credit.
2021-10-0115 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes YieldsRenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.
2021-09-2413 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Mike MastersMike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer at The University of Tennessee to his first job as a retail stockbroker and finally as the head of his eponymous named firm, Mike’s focus on process and his sheer willingness to succeed has served his investors well. As one of the most active institutional users of derivatives on the street, Mike understands mismatches in perceptions, expectations and calendar quirks, and attempts to exploit those difference to his client's advantage. He’s built a firs...
2021-09-1839 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet ExhaustedToday Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.
2021-09-1712 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Biden Top-Ticks COVIDGive us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much of the negative sentiment might already be priced into equities, the latest news from DC and why the odds of a government shutdown are 25% and rising as the month progresses.
2021-09-1013 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and ApprovalRenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed tapering, the political infighting starting to develop among Ds in DC and the markets unwavering trend.
2021-09-0312 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: A D.C. September to RememberThe RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the Fed, and taking the foot off the market accelerator.
2021-08-2713 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation TradeRenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.
2021-08-2016 min
Alpha ExchangeJeff deGraaf, Founder and CEO, Renaissance MacroFor Jeff deGraaf, financial markets have always been about figuring out who moved the pieces in a chess match and why. Early exposure to the discipline of technical analysis and its focus on prices and probabilities helped Jeff begin to develop a framework that concentrates on finding bets with favorable odds. Our discussion considers the market events that have played a formative role in how Jeff thinks about risk. Particularly influential among the big risk-off events was the LTCM debacle, especially as it illustrated the power of the Fed to bring an end to a de-risking process....
2021-08-1953 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite BidenGive us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.
2021-08-1319 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for AugustRenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.
2021-08-0615 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie LinkStephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:
2021-07-3142 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt CeilingRenmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.
2021-07-3017 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes InflationRenmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.
2021-07-2316 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Focused on the FedGive us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.
2021-07-1611 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2)In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.
2021-07-1040 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an IslandGive us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.
2021-07-0918 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s FuseRenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.
2021-07-0215 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur LafferIn the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.
2021-06-2645 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed BlinkRenmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.
2021-06-1815 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fearsThe RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.
2021-06-1116 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan WeinsteinStan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.
2021-06-0559 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon CopyRenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.
2021-06-0413 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge BondsSteve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.
2021-05-2814 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About RatesRenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.
2021-05-2114 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Great UnmaskingRenmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.
2021-05-1416 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-fulRenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.
2021-05-0713 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned DavisNed Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........
2021-05-0143 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year MakesRenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections
2021-04-3013 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is CirclingIn 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.
2021-04-2314 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard ChiltonRichard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....
2021-04-1756 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliabilityThe RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.
2021-04-1613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: People in Glass HousesNeil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.
2021-04-0915 min
Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of CMT AssociationEpisode 4: Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFAAs the discipline of technical analysis has evolved so have the practitioners. Episode #4 of Fill the Gap features one of Wall Street’s current icons of market research – Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA who is the founder and Chairman of Renaissance Macro Research LLC. In this interview, Jeff dives deep into the quantifiable data-driven approach he and the RenMac team leverage towards understanding markets. Jeff reveals some of the spurious pitfalls of data science, how RenMac separates signal from noise, and why their team always returns to price before making any investment recommendation. Jeff has been one of Wall...
2021-04-091h 18
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2)Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......
2021-04-0347 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1)Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first pa...
2021-03-2731 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to PressRenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?
2021-03-2613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are MisleadingRenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.
2021-03-1917 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom GallagherTom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:
2021-03-1347 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then SomeRenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.
2021-03-1214 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening LeadRenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.
2021-03-0514 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....
2021-02-2753 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s BellyacheRenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.
2021-02-2617 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats?RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers
2021-02-1915 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott BessentScott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.
2021-02-1342 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs RealityRenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead
2021-02-1212 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus FuseIn 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.
2021-02-0513 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange BedfellowsIn 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.
2021-01-2914 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah BlacksteinNoah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....
2021-01-2545 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Unity and the Power of UnilateralismRenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially low bar and the building bubble in assets
2021-01-2216 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Expectations Collide with RealityIn 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets inflation, and the importance of contrarian thinking around words and rhetoric versus facts.
2021-01-1514 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Better Economy But Stimulus Won’t StopRenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goes blue. This is going to find its way into asset prices.
2021-01-0815 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fed Passive Easing, Uncle Sam Active EasingRenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for asset prices and Neil’s definition of a “Powder Day”.
2020-12-1814 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Energy Stocks Leading, Inflation Is Not FollowingUS equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price inflation just yet. Plus the latest on fiscal negotiations in DC: both sides are likely to drop their must haves for a slimmed down relief bill before year end.
2020-12-1115 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Bright Light at End of the TunnelRenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it remains about credit not COVID.
2020-12-0416 min
Financial Sense NewshourHour 1 Jeff deGraaf on Market Outlook; John Ing on Gold, Precious Metals 2018-02-03After this weeks market wrap-up with Ryan Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Renaissance Macros Jeff deGraaf (click here for slides, free trial) on the US stock market outlook looking at interest rates, the yield curve, what the credit markets are saying, and more. Next, John Ing gives an update on the gold and precious metals markets.
2018-02-031h 07
Masters in BusinessInterview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio)May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Jeff deGraaf, RenMac’s Chairman and Head Technical Analyst. Jeff spent the early part of his career at Merrill Lynch and then Lehman Brothers, where he served on the firm’s investment policy committee as a Managing Director. This interview aired on Bloomberg Radio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2016-05-211h 14