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Showing episodes and shows of
Jeff DeGraaf
Shows
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions
RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.
2025-07-04
26 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?
RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
2025-05-16
36 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty
RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.
2025-05-02
42 min
Know More. Risk Better.
Correction or Chaos? Technical Insights with RenMac’s Jeff deGraaf
In this episode of "Know More. Risk Better," Zachary Griffiths welcomes Jeff deGraaf, chairman and co-founder of Renaissance Macro Research. Jeff draws from 35 years of experience to provide technical insights amid the recent equity market selloff. They discuss key metrics he’s focused on to determine if equities are oversold and when it is time to add risk back to portfolios. Jeff describes his journey beginning on Wall Street as a fundamental analyst and what drew him to take a more imaginative approach to capital markets including using technical analysis to understand what the market is ‘saying’.
2025-03-13
48 min
Forward Guidance
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!__Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLCFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
2025-03-05
44 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty
Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.
2025-02-28
26 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat Camp
RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-Bag
2025-02-07
35 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMs
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.
2025-01-03
27 min
Beyond the Benchmark by EFG
EP 108: Understanding Market Trends with Jeff deGraaf
In this episode of Beyond the Benchmark, Moz is joined by Jeff deGraaf, a leading technical analyst from RenMac, for an insightful discussion on 2024’s market performance and opportunities in 2025, as well as touching on China’s resilience and the global influence of the US dollar.Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Researchhttps://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/EFGAM:https://www.newcapital.com/Impo...
2024-12-11
39 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate
Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward
2024-11-08
25 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: China Turns
Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
2024-09-27
19 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru
With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
2024-08-30
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter Deemer
Bullish Sentiment Thru the AgesJeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.
2024-07-06
22 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a Low
Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.
2024-04-19
05 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed Fiasco
Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying opportunities than tech, and the politics behind the upcoming Republican primary in SC and the Democrat pr...
2024-02-23
19 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency
Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
2023-11-24
17 min
Beyond the Benchmark by EFG
EP 83: Jeff deGraaf on seasonality and market sentiment | 1st November 2023
Recorded 1st November 2023. Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Research shares his thoughts on current market sentiment and seasonality plays going into the winter. Jeff shares what RenMac's Market Cycle Clock indicators are saying, balanced against a more bearish yield impact model and a surprisingly strong US economy.Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Researchhttps://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/EFGAM:
2023-11-21
46 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black Hole
Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
2022-08-26
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.
The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
2022-07-22
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Panics
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
2022-06-17
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Domination
The RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic assumptions in the budget request, Republicans registering voters at gas stations, COVID concerns subsiding, 20-day numbers looking good but not great, BB vs. BBB spreads narrowing, differentiation determining winners and losers.
2022-03-25
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: If Powell Was A Pilot
The RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed meeting, how the recession call is premature, and Powell’s challenges with landing the inflation plane.
2022-03-18
12 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: The Russian Excuse
The RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fighting tightening, Biden blaming inflation on Russia, pre-pandemic conditions returning, bears still outnumbering bulls in terms of sentiment, noise around the trends, withdraw of liquidity impacting marginal assets, Powell on tap next week.
2022-03-11
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Boom Persists
The RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the Union, administration supporting polices that make inflation worse not better, and a lot of bearish sentiment but little momentum at the moment.
2022-03-04
11 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Hiking Into a Boom
RenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting into services, geopolitical tensions and their impact on gold and energy, Iranian deal implications and the convenient political timing on mask removals before Biden’s State of the Union.
2022-02-18
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Nation
RenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistance to higher prices, the counter-cyclical impact of short rates and oil, pandemic politics, and the unusual leadership of banks at this part in the cycle.
2022-02-11
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Economy Is Learning To Live With COVID
The RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for Ds without Lujan on Biden’s Fed nominees and legislative agenda, international bonds breaking out, potential for asset deflation as the Fed fights inflation, cracks in concept capital, why apathy is better than emotion when picking stocks.
2022-02-04
21 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Returns Drive Flows
The RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity growth, how returns drive flows, and a desire for a steepening curve.
2022-01-28
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: “Minor Incursion” Has Major Consequences
The RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s proposed dot plot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, signs the pandemic might be ending, and what yields are saying.
2022-01-21
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: I’ve Had a Bad Days, but Not Like Biden
RenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.
2022-01-14
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Focus on the Fed
The RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.
2022-01-07
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: That Damned Yield Curve
RenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”
2021-12-17
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big Stick
Neil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.
2021-12-10
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Data Won’t Dissuade Fed
RenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kamala or Pete be the heir apparent, the history of inflation and the Fed as well as next week’s inflation data.
2021-12-03
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Moz Afzal
Moz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportunities Fund. He has been instrumental in building EFG's global footprint and shares with us how he has continued to manage money effectively while building a trusted team of analysts and PMs around him. Here is our conversation...
2021-11-20
36 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The Fed
The RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.
2021-11-19
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Will Need a Stiff Spine
Renmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the relative strength of cyclicals versus weakness in defensive names.
2021-11-12
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Economy and Markets Melt Up In Q4
RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout in small cap stocks and the re-opening trade, and what the strong GOP performance in this week’s elections (NJ/VA) mean for current fiscal negotiations.
2021-11-05
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with David Fingold
David Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more than $13.5B in AUM is unique. David knows what it is to run a business successfully, how to finance it, and consequently what it means to invest in one. He's a bottoms-up stock picker who worries top-down, and his success speaks volumes.
2021-10-30
59 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: D’s Fumble in the Red Zone
RenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was better), inflation expectations, gold and Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
2021-10-29
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s Fingers
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.
2021-10-22
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Putin Is World’s Most Powerful Man
Join the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Putin, the inflation boom, and how Biden’s climate policy discourages fossil fuel production.
2021-10-15
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Won’t Dissuade the Fed
RenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues, Manchin drops the F-bomb and the importance of better or worse versus good or bad on Wall Street.
2021-10-08
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Self-inflicted Wounds from Washington
RenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlogs and end-user demand, the abundant oversold conditions in industry groups, rising yields and the bullish complacency found in corporate credit.
2021-10-01
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes Yields
RenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.
2021-09-24
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Mike Masters
Mike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer at The University of Tennessee to his first job as a retail stockbroker and finally as the head of his eponymous named firm, Mike’s focus on process and his sheer willingness to succeed has served his investors well. As one of the most active institutional users of derivatives on the street, Mike understands mismatches in perceptions, expectations and calendar quirks, and attempts to exploit those difference to his client's advantage. He’s built a firs...
2021-09-18
39 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet Exhausted
Today Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.
2021-09-17
12 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Biden Top-Ticks COVID
Give us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much of the negative sentiment might already be priced into equities, the latest news from DC and why the odds of a government shutdown are 25% and rising as the month progresses.
2021-09-10
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Approval
RenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed tapering, the political infighting starting to develop among Ds in DC and the markets unwavering trend.
2021-09-03
12 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: A D.C. September to Remember
The RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the Fed, and taking the foot off the market accelerator.
2021-08-27
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation Trade
RenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.
2021-08-20
16 min
Alpha Exchange
Jeff deGraaf, Founder and CEO, Renaissance Macro
For Jeff deGraaf, financial markets have always been about figuring out who moved the pieces in a chess match and why. Early exposure to the discipline of technical analysis and its focus on prices and probabilities helped Jeff begin to develop a framework that concentrates on finding bets with favorable odds. Our discussion considers the market events that have played a formative role in how Jeff thinks about risk. Particularly influential among the big risk-off events was the LTCM debacle, especially as it illustrated the power of the Fed to bring an end to a de-risking process....
2021-08-19
53 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite Biden
Give us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.
2021-08-13
19 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for August
RenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.
2021-08-06
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie Link
Stephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:
2021-07-31
42 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt Ceiling
Renmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.
2021-07-30
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes Inflation
Renmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.
2021-07-23
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Focused on the Fed
Give us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.
2021-07-16
11 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2)
In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.
2021-07-10
40 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an Island
Give us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.
2021-07-09
18 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s Fuse
RenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.
2021-07-02
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer
In the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.
2021-06-26
46 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed Blink
Renmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.
2021-06-18
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fears
The RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.
2021-06-11
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan Weinstein
Stan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.
2021-06-05
59 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon Copy
RenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.
2021-06-04
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge Bonds
Steve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.
2021-05-28
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About Rates
RenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.
2021-05-21
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Great Unmasking
Renmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.
2021-05-14
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-ful
RenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.
2021-05-07
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned Davis
Ned Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........
2021-05-01
43 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year Makes
RenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections
2021-04-30
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is Circling
In 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.
2021-04-23
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard Chilton
Richard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....
2021-04-17
56 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliability
The RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.
2021-04-16
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: People in Glass Houses
Neil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.
2021-04-09
16 min
Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association
Episode 4: Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA
As the discipline of technical analysis has evolved so have the practitioners. Episode #4 of Fill the Gap features one of Wall Street’s current icons of market research – Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA who is the founder and Chairman of Renaissance Macro Research LLC. In this interview, Jeff dives deep into the quantifiable data-driven approach he and the RenMac team leverage towards understanding markets. Jeff reveals some of the spurious pitfalls of data science, how RenMac separates signal from noise, and why their team always returns to price before making any investment recommendation. Jeff has been one of Wall...
2021-04-09
1h 18
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2)
Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......
2021-04-03
47 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1)
Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first pa...
2021-03-27
31 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to Press
RenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?
2021-03-26
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are Misleading
RenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.
2021-03-19
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom Gallagher
Tom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:
2021-03-13
47 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then Some
RenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.
2021-03-12
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening Lead
RenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.
2021-03-05
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko
300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....
2021-02-27
53 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s Bellyache
RenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.
2021-02-26
17 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats?
RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers
2021-02-19
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent
Scott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.
2021-02-13
42 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs Reality
RenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead
2021-02-12
12 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus Fuse
In 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.
2021-02-05
13 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange Bedfellows
In 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.
2021-01-29
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah Blackstein
Noah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....
2021-01-25
45 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Unity and the Power of Unilateralism
RenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially low bar and the building bubble in assets
2021-01-22
16 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Expectations Collide with Reality
In 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets inflation, and the importance of contrarian thinking around words and rhetoric versus facts.
2021-01-15
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Better Economy But Stimulus Won’t Stop
RenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goes blue. This is going to find its way into asset prices.
2021-01-08
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Passive Easing, Uncle Sam Active Easing
RenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for asset prices and Neil’s definition of a “Powder Day”.
2020-12-18
14 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: Energy Stocks Leading, Inflation Is Not Following
US equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price inflation just yet. Plus the latest on fiscal negotiations in DC: both sides are likely to drop their must haves for a slimmed down relief bill before year end.
2020-12-11
15 min
RenMac
RenMac Off-Script: The Bright Light at End of the Tunnel
RenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it remains about credit not COVID.
2020-12-04
16 min
Financial Sense Newshour
Hour 1 Jeff deGraaf on Market Outlook; John Ing on Gold, Precious Metals 2018-02-03
After this weeks market wrap-up with Ryan Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Renaissance Macros Jeff deGraaf (click here for slides, free trial) on the US stock market outlook looking at interest rates, the yield curve, what the credit markets are saying, and more. Next, John Ing gives an update on the gold and precious metals markets.
2018-02-03
1h 07
Masters in Business
Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio)
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Jeff deGraaf, RenMac’s Chairman and Head Technical Analyst. Jeff spent the early part of his career at Merrill Lynch and then Lehman Brothers, where he served on the firm’s investment policy committee as a Managing Director. This interview aired on Bloomberg Radio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2016-05-21
1h 14