Shows
Probable CausationEpisode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal recordsPeter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records.
“Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States" by Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas.
“How Much of Barrier to Entry is...
2025-11-1844 minProbable CausationEpisode 109: Anjali Adukia on restorative justice practices in schoolsAnjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior.
“From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth.
“Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger.
“School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in...
2024-10-2244 minProbable CausationEpisode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST)Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Am...
2024-09-2444 minProbable CausationEpisode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together...
2024-08-271h 05Probable CausationEpisode 108: Emma Rackstraw on "Copaganda"Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes.
“When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn
"‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss.
“The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang.
"The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan.
"How Cable News Reshaped L...
2024-07-301h 06Probable CausationEpisode 107: David Macdonald on truth-in-sentencing policiesDavid Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies.
“Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd.
“Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto.
"Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens.
"How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuzie...
2024-07-021h 11Probable CausationEpisode 106: Ryan Sakoda on post-release supervisionRyan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.
“Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner.
“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent.
“An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes.
“Managin...
2024-06-041h 07Probable CausationEpisode 105: Amanda Agan on how sealing criminal records affects employmentAmanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment.
“Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan
"The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager.
2024-05-071h 00Probable CausationEpisode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for policeOeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.
"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Rob...
2024-04-0949 minProbable CausationEpisode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonn...
2024-03-1242 minProbable CausationEpisode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST)Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and...
2024-02-2756 minProbable CausationEpisode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid access and recidivismMarguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism.
"In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jacome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome
“The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn.
“Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn...
2024-02-1359 minProbable CausationEpisode 102: William Arbour on prison-based behavioral programsWilliam Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte.
...
2024-01-3054 minProbable CausationEpisode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST)Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and R...
2024-01-1645 minProbable CausationEpisode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. L...
2024-01-0244 minProbable CausationEpisode 101: Xinming Du on social media content and offline violenceXinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.
“Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock.
“Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” by Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin, and Maria Petrova.
“Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime” by Karsten Muller and Carlo Schwarz.
Episode 35 of Probable Causation: Erich Muehlegger
“Toxic Content and U...
2023-12-1942 minProbable CausationEpisode 100: Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho on renter protection policiesMarina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis.
“The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes when Criminal Histories are Hidden” by Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan.
...
2023-12-0550 minProbable CausationEpisode 99: Ben Feigenberg on class disparities in traffic stopsBen Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses.
“Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
“Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence” by M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, and Yilin Zhou.
“Multitasking, Expectations, and Police Officer Behavior” by James Reeves. [Draft available from author upon request].
“My Taxes are...
2023-11-2132 minProbable CausationEpisode 98: Evan Rose on community supervisionEvan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules
“Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation Program” by Karen Hennigan, Kathy Kolnick, Tian Sivan Tian, Cheryl Maxson, and John Poplawski.
“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Li...
2023-11-071h 00Probable CausationEpisode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail (REBROADCAST)David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel...
2023-10-2446 min
The Balanced Voice with Rania MankariousEp. 80 | Evidence Based Justice - Jennifer DoleacOn this week’s episode of The Balanced Voice, Rania and Jenn chat with Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice of Arnold Ventures Jennifer Doleac.
Jennifer works with the research, programmatic, and advocacy teams to support rigorous, policy-relevant research and turn the resulting research insights into effective policy. She also hosts Probable Causation, a podcast about research related to crime and the criminal justice system.
Thank you to our sponsor: Fliplok
➡️ Listen, comment, share and follow!
YouTube: https://bit.ly/YouTube-TheBalancedVoice
Spot...
2023-10-1134 minProbable CausationEpisode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries (REBROADCAST)J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.
The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.
Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.
Sex Offender Law and...
2023-10-101h 05Probable CausationEpisode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt on the Great Migration and economic mobility (REBROADCAST)Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter.
"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.
"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty a...
2023-09-2657 minProbable CausationEpisode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care (REBROADCAST)Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Res...
2023-09-1226 minProbable CausationEpisode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST)Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021.
“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.
"The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.
”Punishmen...
2023-08-1649 minProbable CausationEpisode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST)Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.
"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
2023-08-0134 minProbable CausationEpisode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST)Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.
"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial...
2023-07-1859 minProbable CausationEpisode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountabilityAllison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability.
“Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport.
“Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-In...
2023-07-0442 minProbable CausationEpisode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violenceAndreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Raine...
2023-06-2051 minProbable CausationEpisode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety netMarcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs.
“Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely Unauthorized Parents” by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Esther Arenas-Arroyo, and Almudena Sevilla.
“Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency...
2023-06-0640 minProbable CausationEpisode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in ChicagoJesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago.
“Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller a...
2023-05-2349 min
You Might Be RightWhat are the Best Ways to Address Crime? – with Jennifer Doleac and Ja'Ron SmithEconomist and Arnold Ventures' incoming Exec. Vice President of Criminal Justice Policy, Jennifer Doleac, and Ja'Ron Smith, Partner with Dentons Global Advisors and fmr. Deputy Asst. to the President for Domestic Policy, join Governors Bredesen and Haslam to explore strategies to reduce and deter crime.
2023-05-2340 minProbable CausationEpisode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of forceJustin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross.
...
2023-05-0942 min
Ben Yeoh ChatsJennifer Doleac: reducing crime, policing, justice, policyJennifer Doleac studies the economics of crime and discrimination. In July 2023, Jenn will join Arnold Ventures as the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice. We chat about trends and causes of crime. How guns, drugs and policing interact with crime trends.
…there was this huge increase in violent crime in particular in the late early eighties, early nineties. And suddenly violent crime started falling dramatically in the mid-1990s. We still aren't entirely sure why that is the case, this big mystery in the economics of crime world. But we do know that basically crime has been fa...
2023-05-081h 27Probable CausationEpisode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in NorwayLaura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway.
“Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist.
2023-04-2559 minProbable CausationBonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconductDavid Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2023-04-1858 minProbable CausationEpisode 91: Allison Harris on registering returning citizens to voteAllison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions.
"Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredi...
2023-04-1155 minProbable CausationEpisode 90: Matthew Ross on police field trainingMatthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force.
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence f...
2023-03-2857 minProbable CausationEpisode 89: Graeme Blair on community policing in the Global SouthGraeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South.
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonp...
2023-03-1443 minProbable CausationEpisode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violenceSara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago.
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, C...
2023-02-2854 minProbable CausationEpisode 87: Emily Nix on violence against women at workEmily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Market” by Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne.
“Incentives for Managers and Inequality Among Workers: Evidence f...
2023-02-141h 06Probable CausationEpisode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does i...
2023-01-311h 05Probable CausationEpisode 3: Analisa Packham on syringe exchange programs (REBROADCAST)Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019.
"Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among in...
2023-01-1754 min
80,000 Hours Podcast#83 Classic episode - Jennifer Doleac on preventing crime without police and prisonsRebroadcast: this episode was originally released in July 2020.
Today’s guest, Jennifer Doleac — Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab — is an expert on empirical research into policing, law and incarceration. In this extensive interview, she highlights three ways to effectively prevent crime that don't require police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them: better street lighting, cognitive behavioral therapy, and lead reduction.
One of Jennifer’s papers used switches into and out of daylight saving time as a 'natural experiment' to measure the effe...
2023-01-042h 17Probable CausationEpisode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penaltiesElizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system.
“The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes H...
2023-01-0342 minProbable CausationEpisode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in IndiaSofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
[Working paper available from the authors.]
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Safety First: Percei...
2022-12-2050 minProbable CausationEpisode 84: Alex Albright on bail reformAlex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment...
2022-12-0652 minProbable CausationEpisode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage lineKevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC.
“Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum.
Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC.
2022-11-221h 00Probable CausationEpisode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school qualityKirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others.
“What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?” by Atila Abdulkad...
2022-11-0838 minProbable CausationEpisode 81: Anita Mukherjee on how heat affects violence in prisonsAnita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons.
“The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Interpersonal Violence Associated with Hot Weather” by Rahini Mahendran, Rongbin Xu, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo.
“Heat and Violence" by Craig A. A...
2022-10-2530 minProbable CausationEpisode 80: Thomas Dee on sending health workers to 911 callsThomas Dee talks about the effects of dispatching health workers instead of police to some 911 calls.
“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Variation Across Police Response Models for Handling Encounters with People with Mental Illnesses: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis” by Chunghye...
2022-10-1147 min
What Could Go Right?Why Is Violent Crime Rising? with Jennifer DoleacIs Italy returning to fascism? Are we closer to a cure for cancer? And why is the violent crime rate climbing in the US? Economist Jennifer Doleac talks us though her research on the economics of crime and discrimination.What Could Go Right? is produced by The Progress Network and The Podglomerate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2022-10-0545 minProbable CausationEpisode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings (REBROADCAST)Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020.
"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of...
2022-09-2734 min
The Rewired SoulGetting into Controversial Harm Reduction Research with Jennifer DoleacThe opioid epidemic has been raging on for years, and we've lost hundreds of thousands of lives to overdoses. Naloxone aka Narcan is a life-saving opioid overdose reversal drug, but is it actually helping or is it doing more harm than good? In this episode, we chat with Jennifer Doleac about her research into the effects Narcan has had on the opioid epidemicFollow Jennifer on Twitter @jenniferdoleac Visit JenniferDoleac.com Check out her research here Listen to the Probable Causation podcastGet your free books by Chris here...
2022-09-2236 min
The Rewired SoulGetting into Controversial Harm Reduction Research with Jennifer DoleacEpisode Notes
The opioid epidemic has been raging on for years, and we've lost hundreds of thousands of lives to overdoses. Naloxone aka Narcan is a life-saving opioid overdose reversal drug, but is it actually helping or is it doing more harm than good? In this episode, we chat with Jennifer Doleac about her research into the effects Narcan has had on the opioid epidemic
Follow Jennifer on Twitter @jenniferdoleac
Visit JenniferDoleac.com
Check out her research here
Listen to the Probable Causation podcast
Become a paid Substack subscriber at TheRewiredSoul.Substack.com...
2022-09-2236 minProbable CausationEpisode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonn...
2022-09-1342 minProbable CausationEpisode 79: Jenny Williams on electronic monitoringJenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration.
“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
“Early Release from Prison on Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: A Tale of Two Discontinuities” by Olivier Marie.
“Bet...
2022-08-3059 minProbable CausationEpisode 78: Sandip Sukhtankar on Women’s Help Desks in police stations in IndiaSandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India.
“Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Brazil” by Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds.
...
2022-08-161h 01Probable CausationEpisode 77: Elizabeth Linos on reducing burnout for 911 dispatchersElizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers.
“Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Copenhagen Burnout Inventory: A New Tool for the Assessment of Burnout” by Tage S. Kristensen, Marianne Borritz, Ebbe Villadsen, and Karl B. Christensen.
“Understand...
2022-08-0237 minProbable CausationEpisode 76: Tim Moore on the long-term effects of the crack cocaine epidemicTim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence.
“Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The White/Black Educational Gap, Stalled Progress, and the Long-term Consequences of the Emergence of Crack...
2022-07-1948 minProbable CausationEpisode 75: Panka Bencsik on diversion for drug possession arrestsPanka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey.
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey.
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mue...
2022-07-0538 minProbable CausationEpisode 74: Bryan Stuart on social connectedness and crimeBryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates.
“The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack.
“Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy” by Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raude...
2022-06-2139 minProbable CausationEpisode 73: Danila Serra on ethics training for police in GhanaDanila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana.
“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Polici...
2022-06-071h 09Probable CausationEpisode 72: Manasi Deshpande on SSI benefits and crimeManasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls” by Manasi Deshpande.
“Changing Circumstan...
2022-05-241h 02Probable CausationBonus episode: Chris Blattman on why we fightDavid Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace."
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2022-05-1748 minProbable CausationEpisode 71: Zoë Cullen on increasing employment for people with criminal recordsZoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records.
“Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja B. Starr.
“The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statisti...
2022-05-101h 00Probable CausationEpisode 70: Pedro Souza on police body-worn camerasPedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil.
“De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” by Barak...
2022-04-2654 minProbable CausationEpisode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST)Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making...
2022-04-1256 minProbable CausationEpisode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST)Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“T...
2022-03-2945 minProbable CausationEpisode 69: Molly Schnell on school shootingsMolly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students.
“Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use” by Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, Hannes Schwandt, Sam Trejo, and Lindse...
2022-03-1548 minProbable CausationBonus episode: Sarah Lageson on digital punishmentDavid Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, "Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice."
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2022-03-0850 minProbable CausationEpisode 68: Andrew Barr on nutritional assistance in early childhoodAndrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior.
“Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.
“Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Bir...
2022-03-0158 minProbable CausationEpisode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jailDavid Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence f...
2022-02-1546 minProbable CausationEpisode 66: Aaron Chalfin on what motivates police officersAaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann.
“Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson.
“The Effects of...
2022-02-0149 minProbable CausationEpisode 65: Felipe Goncalves on whether police make too many arrestsFelipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello
“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Dra...
2022-01-1858 minProbable CausationEpisode 64: Jason Baron on foster care placementJason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact.
“Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.]
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Child...
2022-01-0452 minProbable CausationEpisode 63: Elizabeth Luh on detecting racial bias in police stopsElizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops.
“Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nicola Persico, and Petra Todd.
“A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Dep...
2021-12-2131 minProbable CausationEpisode 62: Yotam Shem-Tov on restorative justice diversion programsYotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
“The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Fra...
2021-12-0743 minProbable CausationEpisode 61: Santiago Tobón on gang ruleSantiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it.
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly.
“Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson.
“Violence an...
2021-11-2332 minProbable CausationEpisode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health careElisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller...
2021-11-0926 minProbable CausationEpisode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime (REBROADCAST)Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence"...
2021-10-2656 minProbable CausationBonus episode: Carissa Byrne Hessick on plea bargainingDavid Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal."
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2021-10-1945 minProbable CausationEpisode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis...
2021-10-1244 min
Effective Altruism: Ten Global Problems – 80,000 Hours (October 2021)Six: Jennifer Doleac on criminal justice reformThe killing of George Floyd has prompted a great deal of debate over whether the US should shrink its police departments. The research literature suggests that the presence of police officers does reduce crime, though they’re not cheap, and as is increasingly recognised, impose substantial harms on the populations they are meant to be protecting, especially communities of colour.So maybe we ought to shift our focus to unconventional but effective approaches to crime prevention — approaches that would shrink the need for police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them.J...
2021-10-032h 17Probable CausationEpisode 59: Kerri Raissian on domestic violence courtsKerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Love, Hate and Murder: Commitment Devices in Violent Relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó.
“Do Domestic Violence Courts Work? A Met...
2021-09-2850 minProbable CausationEpisode 58: Jennifer Doleac on DNA databasesGuest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.
“The Effects of Surveillanc...
2021-09-1443 minProbable CausationEpisode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni on predictive policingGiovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime.
“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brantingham, F.P. Schoenberg, and G.E. Tita.
“Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing” by G.O. Mohler, M...
2021-08-3135 minProbable CausationEpisode 56: Gaurav Khanna on employment and crime in ColombiaGaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird.
“Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence fro...
2021-08-1745 minProbable CausationEpisode 55: Morgan Williams Jr. on the race-specific effects of policingMorgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing.
"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect...
2021-08-0351 minProbable CausationBonus episode: Hannah Walker on criminal justice contact and political participationDavid Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2021-07-2744 minProbable CausationEpisode 54: Carolina Arteaga on parental incarcerationCarolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes.
“Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Impact the Children?” by Stephen B. Billings.
“The Impact of Maternal Imprisonment on Children’s Probability of Grade Retention” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Impact of Mate...
2021-07-2032 minProbable CausationEpisode 53: Heyu Xiong on how legalizing marijuana affects marijuana dealersHeyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally.
“Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen.
“Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal La...
2021-07-0635 minProbable CausationBonus episode: Gregg Caruso on free will and punishmentDavid Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
2021-06-291h 01Probable CausationEpisode 52: Katherine Eriksson on Rosenwald schools
Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century.
"Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement” by Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Closing the Gap? Th...
2021-06-2232 min
The Hidden CurriculumS1E12 How to approach networking with Jennifer DoleacIn this episode we talk about how to approach networking with Jennifer Doleac. Jennifer Doleac is an Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab. She is also a Research Fellow at IZA, and a Research Affiliate at the Institute for Research on Poverty, the University of Chicago Crime Lab, and the Wilson Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities. Jennifer studies crime and discrimination, with particular emphases on prisoner reentry and the effects of technology on public safety. She also organizes the Texas Economics of Crime Workshop (TxECW), and also has a podca...
2020-12-0853 min
Policy@McCombsJennifer Doleac Discusses the General State of Policing in the United StatesJennifer Doleac is an Economist at Texas A&M University. She is also the Director of the Justice Texas Tech Lab.
2020-10-2600 minPolicy@McCombsJennifer Doleac Discusses the General State of Policing in the United StatesJennifer Doleac is an Economist at Texas A&M University. She is also the Director of the Justice Texas Tech Lab.
2020-10-2600 minPolicy@McCombsJennifer Doleac Discusses the General State of Policing in the United StatesJennifer Doleac is an Economist at Texas A&M University. She is also the Director of the Justice Texas Tech Lab.
2020-10-2600 min
80,000 Hours Podcast#83 - Jennifer Doleac on preventing crime without police and prisonsThe killing of George Floyd has prompted a great deal of debate over whether the US should reduce the size of its police departments. The research literature suggests that the presence of police officers does reduce crime, though they're expensive and as is increasingly recognised, impose substantial harms on the populations they are meant to be protecting, especially communities of colour. So maybe we ought to shift our focus to effective but unconventional approaches to crime prevention, approaches that don't require police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them. Today’s guest, Jenn...
2020-07-312h 23
EconTalkJennifer Doleac on CrimeEconomist Jennifer Doleac of Texas A&M University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about her research on crime, police, and the unexpected consequences of the criminal justice system. Topics discussed include legislation banning asking job applicants if they've been in prison, body cameras for police, the use of DNA databases, the use of Naloxone to prevent death from opioid overdose, and the challenges of being an economist who thinks about crime using the economist's toolkit.
2019-01-211h 22