Shows
Agsolutely Fabulous#13 Top Tips for Applying to Farm/Station Jobs + Why Rural Women Are Retiring Without Super: This is Your Wake-Up CallWelcome to Agsolutley Fabulous Episode 13!🎙️ Today’s Topics: 1️⃣ Superannuation for Rural and Regional Women – A deep dive into why super is critical, especially for women in family farming businesses who often don't draw a regular income. 2️⃣ Applying for Farm/Station Jobs – tips to help you stand out and secure that dream position in agriculture.☕ Chit Chat Segment:Recording Delay: We're recording on a Thursday instead of our usual Monday because Gillian's been on the road again! Tune in as she shares insights from her trip from South Australia to Tamworth for the Cattle Austra...2024-11-2247 min
Katja reads to youSituational Awareness: 2. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion (Part B)2024-10-1833 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 2. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion (Part A)AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic.2024-10-1647 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part G): The next four years2024-10-1509 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part H): The next four years/It's this decade or bust2024-10-1505 min
The DemystifySci PodcastChecking the Doom Temperature - Katja Grace, AI Impacts - DS Pod #290Katja Grace is an AI Impacts researcher who has written extensively on the possible future where we design intelligent machines that destroy the human race. We have always been somewhat skeptical of AI doom arguments - mostly because the machines we interact with tend to be terribly, irredeemably dumb in a way that seems incompatible with intelligence, but we also don’t spend a lot of time staring into the eye of the proverbial machine storm and figured Katja might help us understand what all the fuss is about. It turns out that there *is* a plausible path towards AG...2024-10-142h 41Katja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part F): Counting the OOMs / Unhobbling2024-10-1122 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part E): Counting the OOMs / Algorithmic EfficienciesAlgorithms are getting way better, but we're going to hit a data wall or jump over it2024-10-1025 minKatja reads to youDubai Part I2024-10-0839 min
Katja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part D): Counting the OOMs / ComputeCompute2024-10-0214 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part C)The trends in deep learning2024-10-0112 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. 2024-09-2911 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part B)"GPT-2 to GPT-4"2024-09-2915 minKatja reads to youSituational Awareness: IntroductionHistory is live in San Francisco.2024-09-2807 min
Agsolutely FabulousEpisode 4: Natural Crisis Response & Rural Women's AwardsWelcome back to another episode of Agsolutley Fabulous! This week, we're diving into crucial topics impacting the Australian agricultural community. We’re explore strategies or lack there of response to natural crisis response, focusing on how to effectively manage fires, floods, and droughts. Additionally, we’re excited to discuss the AgriFutures Australia Rural Women’s Awards, celebrating the incredible achievements of rural women across the country and the Governments response. Graces interview with The Ultimate Farm Wife - Episode #59 From Scrubs to Orchard Dreams: Grace Larson's Journey with 400 Rare Heritage Apple Varieties: https://rss.co...2024-09-1339 min
Lifestyle Business13. Back to Reality - Savoir dire non pour protéger ton énergie et tes prioritésDans cet épisode de "Back to Reality - la série de l'été indien", on plonge au cœur d'une compétence essentielle pour toute solopreneuse : savoir dire non.Après avoir désencombré ton business dans l'épisode précédent, il est temps d’apprendre à protéger ton temps, ton énergie, et tes priorités en refusant les distractions et les opportunités non alignées.Je partage des exemples concrets et des anecdotes personnelles pour illustrer l'importance de poser des limites claires. Grâce à cet épisode, tu comprendras comment...2024-09-1111 min
Find Best-Selling Full Audiobooks in Mystery, Thriller & Horror, Police & Detective[German] - Kommissar Pfote (Band 4) - Ein haariger Fall: Begleite den beliebten Hunde-Held bei seiner Spurensuche - Lustiger Kinderkrimi zumPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/790951 to listen full audiobooks. Title: [German] - Kommissar Pfote (Band 4) - Ein haariger Fall: Begleite den beliebten Hunde-Held bei seiner Spurensuche - Lustiger Kinderkrimi zum Hören ab 6 Jahren Series: #4 of Kommissar Pfote Author: Katja Reider Narrator: Alex Bolte Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 0 hours 36 minutes Release date: September 1, 2024 Genres: Police & Detective Publisher's Summary: Kommissar Pfote – Polizeihund im Einsatz! WUFF, hier bellt die Polizei! Mein Name ist Pepper und ich werde auch Kommissar Pfote genannt, denn ich löse jeden Fall. PFOTE DRAUF! Alarm bei der Katzen-Ausstellung: Eine wertvolle Katze wurde gestohlen! Pepper nimmt sofor...2024-09-0103 min
Building HER with Katja LillianMy Perfect Morning Routine & How You Can Start One Too!🚨EPIC FREE EXPERIENCE🚨 is happening on Sunday, July 28th @ 2pm ET.I will be hosting my FREE masterclass, The Confidence Code: the KEY to getting everything you've ever wanted 💫Join us & learn how to manifest & attract anything so that you can become obsessed with your life. Sign up and have the chance to win EPIC prizes & if you show up LIVE, you'll get access to my first ever "MIRACLE MAGNET" bundle! A 21 day audio experience designed for you so that you can learn what to do and what not to do to get where you...2024-07-1230 min
Find Best-Selling Full Audiobooks in Mystery, Thriller & Horror, Police & Detective[German] - Kommissar Pfote (Band 3) - Schnüffel-Einsatz auf dem Schulhof: Begleite den beliebten Hunde-Held bei seiner Spurensuche - LustigePlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/790950 to listen full audiobooks. Title: [German] - Kommissar Pfote (Band 3) - Schnüffel-Einsatz auf dem Schulhof: Begleite den beliebten Hunde-Held bei seiner Spurensuche - Lustiger Kinderkrimi zum Hören ab 6 Jahren Series: #3 of Kommissar Pfote Author: Katja Reider Narrator: Alex Bolte Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 0 hours 36 minutes Release date: July 1, 2024 Genres: Police & Detective Publisher's Summary: Kommissar Pfote – Polizeihund im Einsatz! WUFF, hier bellt die Polizei! Mein Name ist Pepper und ich werde auch Kommissar Pfote genannt, denn ich löse jeden Fall. PFOTE DRAUF! Hier riecht doch was faul! Pepper hilft mit Herrchen Paul b...2024-07-0103 min
Stream Popular Full Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Vereint - Ruins of Love, Grace & Hayden, Band 4 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/794831 to listen full audiobooks. Title: [German] - Vereint - Ruins of Love, Grace & Hayden, Band 4 (Ungekürzt) Author: Megan Devos Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 15 hours 11 minutes Release date: June 30, 2024 Genres: Romantasy Publisher's Summary: Spicy Romantasy: Das große Finale der süchtig machenden Lovestory von Grace und Hayden! Du kämpfst, du leidest, du tötest - oder du verlierst alles, was du liebst Noch nie war Hayden so froh wie jetzt, Grace an seiner Seite zu wissen, wo er sie beschützen kann - nun, wo ein erb...2024-06-3003 min
Stream Popular Full Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Vereint - Ruins of Love, Grace & Hayden, Band 4 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/794831to listen full audiobooks.
Title: [German] - Vereint - Ruins of Love, Grace & Hayden, Band 4 (Ungekürzt)
Author: Megan Devos
Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay
Format: Unabridged Audiobook
Length: 15 hours 11 minutes
Release date: June 30, 2024
Genres: Romantasy
Publisher's Summary:
Spicy Romantasy: Das große Finale der süchtig machenden Lovestory von Grace und Hayden! Du kämpfst, du leidest, du tötest - oder du verlierst alles, was du liebst Noch nie war Hayden so froh wie jetzt, Grace an seiner Seite zu wissen, wo er sie beschützen kann - nun, wo ein erbitte...2024-06-303h 11
Consistently Candid#11 Katja Grace on the AI Impacts survey, the case for slowing down AI & arguments for and against x-riskKatja Grace is the co-founder of AI Impacts, a non-profit focused on answering key questions about the future trajectory of AI development, which is best known for conducting the world's largest survey of machine learning researchers. We talked about the most interesting results from the survey, Katja's views on whether we should slow down AI progress, the best arguments for and against existential risk from AI, parsing the online AI safety debate and more! Follow Katja on Twitter Katja's SubstackMy Twitter2024-06-201h 16
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Show with Soroush PourEp 13 - AI researchers expect AGI sooner w/ Katja Grace (Co-founder & Lead Researcher, AI Impacts)We speak with Katja Grace. Katja is the co-founder and lead researcher at AI Impacts, a research group trying to answer key questions about the future of AI — when certain capabilities will arise, what will AI look like, how it will all go for humanity.We talk to Katja about:* How AI Impacts latest rigorous survey of leading AI researchers shows they've dramatically reduced their timelines to when AI will successfully tackle all human tasks & occupations.* The survey's methodology and why we can be confident in its results* Responses to the survey* Ka...2024-06-191h 20
London FuturistsAI Impacts Survey - The key implications, with Katja GraceOur guest in this episode grew up in an abandoned town in Tasmania, and is now a researcher and blogger in Berkeley, California. After taking a degree in human ecology and science communication, Katja Grace co-founded AI Impacts, a research organisation trying to answer questions about the future of artificial intelligence.Since 2016, Katja and her colleagues have published a series of surveys about what AI researchers think about progress on AI. The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was published this January, comprising responses from 2,778 participants. As far as we know, this is the biggest survey of...2024-06-1333 min
Center for AI Policy Podcast#7: Katja Grace on the Future of AI and Insights From AI ResearchersKatja Grace, Lead Researcher and Co-Founder of AI Impacts, joined the podcast to discuss where AI is heading and what AI researchers think about it, including analysis of likely the largest-ever survey of AI researchers.
Our music is by Micah Rubin (Producer) and John Lisi (Composer).
For a transcript, highlights, and relevant links, visit the Center for AI Policy Podcast Substack.
2024-05-3049 min
The Ultimate Farm Wife#59 From Scrubs to Orchard Dreams: Grace Larson's Journey with 400 Rare Heritage Apple VarietiesS5 E10 welcome to the farm , In today’s interview we meet Grace Larson, a multifaceted professional with a heart for healing and a passion for preserving heritage. As a BNurs and PGDip Paed Crit Care holder, Grace's journey transcends the hospital walls. Nestled in a serene countryside with her three children, Grace leads a double life unbeknownst to many. Beyond her medical accolades, Grace and her husband share a secret—they are proud owners of a heritage apple orchard boasting over 400 rare varieties! 🍏🍎 Join us in today's episode as we unravel Grace's remarkable...2024-05-1634 min
The Ultimate Farm Wife#58 Balancing Life & Livestock: Paediatric Healthcare to First-Generation Farmer with Sarah DuncansonS5 E10welcome to the farm ,In today’s interview we meet Grace Larson, a multifaceted professional with a heart for healing and a passion for preserving heritage. As a BNurs and PGDip Paed Crit Care holder, Grace's journey transcends the hospital walls. Nestled in a serene countryside with her three cherubic children, Grace leads a double life unbeknownst to many.Beyond her medical accolades, Grace and her husband share a secret—they are proud owners of a heritage apple orchard boasting over 400 rare varieties! 🍏🍎 Join us in today's episode as we unravel Grace's re...2024-05-0937 min
Download Best Full-Length Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Gespalten - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 2 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/768967 to listen full audiobooks. Title: [German] - Gespalten - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 2 (Ungekürzt) Author: Megan Devos Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 12 hours 36 minutes Release date: April 12, 2024 Genres: Romantasy Publisher's Summary: Zum Verlieben und Verschlingen: Die süchtig machende Lovestory von Grace und Hayden in vier mitreißenden Bänden! Wenn dich die Liebe deines Lebens im Stich lässt - gibst du auf oder kämpfst du? Grace kann sich nicht vorstellen, je wieder ohne Hayden zu sein. Bis zu jenem Tag, an dem er...2024-04-1203 min
Download Best Full-Length Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Gespalten - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 2 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/768967to listen full audiobooks.
Title: [German] - Gespalten - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 2 (Ungekürzt)
Author: Megan Devos
Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay
Format: Unabridged Audiobook
Length: 12 hours 36 minutes
Release date: April 12, 2024
Genres: Romantasy
Publisher's Summary:
Zum Verlieben und Verschlingen: Die süchtig machende Lovestory von Grace und Hayden in vier mitreißenden Bänden! Wenn dich die Liebe deines Lebens im Stich lässt - gibst du auf oder kämpfst du? Grace kann sich nicht vorstellen, je wieder ohne Hayden zu sein. Bis zu jenem Tag, an dem er sie...2024-04-1212h 36
"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player AnalysisSurveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI ImpactsIn this episode, Nathan sits down with Katja Grace, Cofounder and Lead Researcher at AI Impacts. They discuss the survey Katja and team conducted including over 2,700+ AI researchers, the methodology for the research, and the results’ implications for policymakers, the public, and the industry as a whole. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/apiLINKS:- Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI: https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf...2024-03-211h 29
Future of Life Institute PodcastKatja Grace on the Largest Survey of AI ResearchersKatja Grace joins the podcast to discuss the largest survey of AI researchers conducted to date, AI researchers' beliefs about different AI risks, capabilities required for continued AI-related transformation, the idea of discontinuous progress, the impacts of AI from either side of the human-level intelligence threshold, intelligence and power, and her thoughts on how we can mitigate AI risk. Find more on Katja's work at https://aiimpacts.org/.
Timestamps:
0:20 AI Impacts surveys
18:11 What AI will look like in 20 years
22:43 Experts’ extinction risk predictions
29:35 Opinions on slowing down AI development
31:25 AI “arms races”
34:00 AI risk areas with the most agreement
40:41 Do “high hop...2024-03-141h 08
Future of Life Institute PodcastKatja Grace on the Largest Survey of AI ResearchersKatja Grace joins the podcast to discuss the largest survey of AI researchers conducted to date, AI researchers' beliefs about different AI risks, capabilities required for continued AI-related transformation, the idea of discontinuous progress, the impacts of AI from either side of the human-level intelligence threshold, intelligence and power, and her thoughts on how we can mitigate AI risk. Find more on Katja's work at https://aiimpacts.org/.
Timestamps:
0:20 AI Impacts surveys
18:11 What AI will look like in 20 years
22:43 Experts’ extinction risk predictions
29:35 Opinions on slowing down AI development
31:25 AI “arms races”
34:00 AI risk areas with the most agreement
40:41 Do “high hop...2024-03-141h 08
Download Best Full-Length Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Gefangen - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 1 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/755051 to listen full audiobooks. Title: [German] - Gefangen - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 1 (Ungekürzt) Author: Megan Devos Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 12 hours 52 minutes Release date: February 16, 2024 Genres: Romantasy Publisher's Summary: Zum Verlieben und Verschlingen: Die süchtig machende Lovestory von Grace und Hayden in vier mitreißenden Bänden! Sie ist clever und schön - und bereit, ihn zu töten Seit die Welt, in der er aufgewachsen ist, in Schutt und Asche liegt, kämpft der 21-jährige Hayden wie der Rest der...2024-02-1603 min
Download Best Full-Length Audiobooks in Romance, Romantasy[German] - Gefangen - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 1 (Ungekürzt) by Megan DevosPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/755051to listen full audiobooks.
Title: [German] - Gefangen - Ruins of Love - Grace & Hayden, Band 1 (Ungekürzt)
Author: Megan Devos
Narrator: János Jung, Katja Sallay
Format: Unabridged Audiobook
Length: 12 hours 52 minutes
Release date: February 16, 2024
Genres: Romantasy
Publisher's Summary:
Zum Verlieben und Verschlingen: Die süchtig machende Lovestory von Grace und Hayden in vier mitreißenden Bänden! Sie ist clever und schön - und bereit, ihn zu töten Seit die Welt, in der er aufgewachsen ist, in Schutt und Asche liegt, kämpft der 21-jährige Hayden wie der Rest der Mensc...2024-02-1612h 52
Boss équilibré - Maman multi entrepreneure et multi passionnéeKatja Johnson (Equilibérer) : Comment gérer son temps et son énergie avec le Human Design🎯Pour rejoindre le programme GPS Business - Les 5 étapes pour un business rentable au service de ta vie : Je m'inscris sur la liste d'attente Dans ce nouvel épisode de Boss équilibré, j’accueille Katja, coach et mentor business.Après une vie de salariée, Katja rêvait d’un travail lui permettant de gérer son temps comme elle le souhaitait et ainsi se sentir libre et épanouie.Elle décide alors de devenir entrepreneur, mais n’arrive toujours pas à gérer son temps et ses projets n’aboutissent pas.En...2023-09-2858 min
Soultime Dr. Katja MakowkaDeveloping a growth-oriented mindset: Alexandre’s path to balance and sustainable successJoin us in this inspiring interview as we dive deep into Alex's transformative personal journey of stepping outside his comfort zone, cultivating a growth-oriented mindset, and following his true purpose. Through his experiences, he shares valuable insights on embracing courage, taking proactive steps towards our passions, and overcoming challenges with resilience.
Alex opens up about his profound reflections on nurturing well-being and uplifting his own mindset on a daily basis. We'll explore the powerful techniques he employs to strengthen his mental outlook and navigate life's ups and downs with grace.
In this conversation, Alex shares his wisdom on empowering students...2023-08-061h 02
Hear This IdeaKatja Grace on Slowing Down AI and Whether the X-Risk Case Holds UpKatja Grace is a researcher and writer. She runs AI Impacts, a research project trying to incrementally answer decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence (AI). Katja blogs primarily at worldspiritsockpuppet, and indirectly at Meteuphoric, Worldly Positions, LessWrong and the EA Forum.
We discuss:
What is AI Impacts working on?
Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case
Reasons to doubt that superhuman AI systems will be strongly goal-directed
Reasons to doubt that if goal-directed superhuman AI systems are built, their goals will be bad by human lights
Aren't deep learning systems fairly good at understanding...2023-06-101h 43
EAG TalksWill AI end everything? A guide to guessing | Katja Grace | EAG Bay Area 23Watch on Youtube
Katja gathers arguments, counterarguments, and counter-counterarguments into an educated estimate of AI risk.
Katja Grace co-founded AI Impacts, where she is the Lead Researcher. She co-wrote purportedly the 16th most discussed paper in the world in 2017, about a big survey of ML researchers, and blogs at worldspiritsockpuppet.com.2023-05-2639 min
EA TalksWill AI end everything? A guide to guessing | Katja Grace | EAG Bay Area 23Will AI end everything? A guide to guessing | Katja Grace | EAG Bay Area 23 - YouTubeEffective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube. 2023-04-0739 min
Astral Codex Ten PodcastWhy I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)Machine Alignment Monday 3/13/23 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-i-am-not-as-much-of-a-doomer (see also Katja Grace and Will Eden’s related cases) The average online debate about AI pits someone who thinks the risk is zero, versus someone who thinks it’s any other number. I agree these are the most important debates to have for now. But within the community of concerned people, numbers vary all over the place: Scott Aaronson says says 2% Will MacAskill says 3% The median machine learning researcher on Katja Grace’s survey says 5 - 10%2023-03-2523 min
The Ezra Klein ShowFreaked Out? We Really Can Prepare for A.I.OpenAI last week released its most powerful language model yet: GPT-4, which vastly outperforms its predecessor, GPT-3.5, on a variety of tasks.GPT-4 can pass the bar exam in the 90th percentile, while the previous model struggled around in the 10th percentile. GPT-4 scored in the 88th percentile on the LSAT, up from GPT-3.5’s 40th percentile. And on the advanced sommelier theory test, GPT-4 performed better than 77 percent of test-takers. (It’s predecessor hovered around 46 percent.) These are stunning results — not just what the model can do, but the rapid pace of progress. And Open AI’s ChatGP...2023-03-211h 34
Wildcard ConversationsConnie Trinh on Ego Deaths, Expansion, and EmpathyOn this episode I am joined by Connie Trinh, my first Asian guest and we truly love to see the Asian representation. You’re going to witness beautiful self-reflection in action. Connie shares how the ego deaths she’s experienced in recent years contributed to her growth, her liberation from self imposed limits and to her emotional resilience. She talks about her Asian upbringing and we find some common ground between the Asian and German cultures. We realize how privileged we are to have the space to feel our feelings and the importance of giving our parents grace for not b...2023-03-0858 min
TYPE III AUDIO (All episodes)"Let’s think about slowing down AI" by Katja Grace---client: ea_forumproject_id: curatedfeed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__governancenarrator: pwqa: kmnarrator_time: 5h00mqa_time: 1h50m---If you fear that someone will build a machine that will seize control of the world and annihilate humanity, then one kind of response is to try to build further machines that will seize control of the world even earlier without destroying it, forestalling the ruinous machine’s conquest. An alternative or complementary kind of response is to try to avert such ma...2023-01-051h 14
Future Matters#6: FTX collapse, value lock-in, and counterarguments to AI x-riskFuture Matters is a newsletter about longtermism by Matthew van der Merwe and Pablo Stafforini. Each month we curate and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent researcher. You can also subscribe on Substack, read on the EA Forum and follow on Twitter. Future Matters is also available in Spanish.
00:00 Welcome to Future Matters.
01:05 A message to our readers.
01:54 Finnveden, Riedel & Shulman — Artificial general intelligence and lock-in.
02:33 Grace — Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case.
03:17 Grace — Let’s think about slowing down AI.
04:18 Piper — Review of What We Owe the Future.
05:04 Clare & Ma...2022-12-3037 minTYPE III AUDIO (All episodes)"Counterarguments to the basic AI risk case" by Katja_Grace---client: ea_forumproject_id: curatedfeed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__technical, ai_safety__governancenarrator: pwqa: kmnarrator_time: 5hqa_time: 2h15m---This is going to be a list of holes I see in the basic argument for existential risk from superhuman AI systems. To start, here’s an outline of what I take to be the basic case:I. If superhuman AI systems are built, any given system is likely to be ‘goal-directed’II. If goal-directed superh...2022-11-281h 15
Wildcard ConversationsJamie Saul on Grace, Grief, and Everything in BetweenAfter reminiscing about the good old days in the college cafeteria, my friend Jamie Saul takes me on an emotional rollercoaster ride through the ups and downs of marriage, losing a premature baby, the gift of motherhood, and being black family in a white town. Grounded in her faith, Jamie is a shining example of how to navigate life with love and grace - the Brooklyn way.Connect with Jamie on Instagram: @ashleyofyork2022-09-281h 16
LessWrong (Curated & Popular)"Survey advice" by Katja Gracehttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oyKzz7bvcZMEPaDs6/survey-adviceThings I believe about making surveys, after making some surveys:If you write a question that seems clear, there’s an unbelievably high chance that any given reader will misunderstand it. (Possibly this applies to things that aren’t survey questions also, but that’s a problem for another time.)A better way to find out if your questions are clear is to repeatedly take a single individual person, and sit down with them, and ask them to take your survey while narrating the process: reading the questions aloud...2022-09-1907 min
The Inside ViewKatja Grace on Slowing Down AI, AI Expert Surveys And Estimating AI RiskKatja runs AI Impacts, a research project trying to incrementally answer decision-relevant questions about the future of AI. She is well known for a survey published in 2017 called, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence From AI Experts and recently published a new survey of AI Experts: What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022. We start this episode by discussing what Katja is currently thinking about, namely an answer to Scott Alexander on why slowing down AI Progress is an underexplored path to impact.
Youtube: https://youtu.be/rSw3UVDZge0
Audio & Transcript: https://theinsideview.a...2022-09-161h 41
Clearer Thinking with Spencer GreenbergDealing with our "groupstruckness" and "boundedness" (with Katja Grace)Read the full transcript here. What does it mean to be "groupstruck"? How does groupstruck-ness differ from the bystander effect, normalcy bias, and other related cognitive biases? How do we break people out of being groupstruck? What does it mean to be a "bounded" person? How can we build up better decision-making heuristics? What sorts of decisions do people usually not quantify but should (and vice versa)? How can we make rational relationship decisions without coming across as "calculating" or cold? How does anthropic reasoning affect our hypotheses about the nature of the universe and life within...2022-05-191h 06
Elemental FunElemental Fun 35: It's lighter than air - Helium!Today's episode is about Helium! Join us to learn more about this super light element and more about it's interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comMusic by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2022-03-2147 min
The Mindful DietitianResponsive Feeding & Reflective Practice with Grace WongGrace Wong on inclusive, flexible feeding modalities and how we can bring a more reflective spirit to our work.
In this episode, Grace discusses the ARFID (Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder) umbrella diagnosis and its shortcomings, Responsive Feeding Therapy (RFT); how it was developed. who was part of its curation and its rationale, what each of the 5 interrelated values offers, why moving away from manualised approaches can help more people and how dietitians can use their supervision space well.
In conclusion, Fi and Grace each share how they both engage in their own r...2022-03-071h 16Elemental FunElemental Fun 34: Science Stories!Today's episode is another science stories! Join us to learn more about some interesting science topics. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2022-01-2131 minElemental FunElemental Fun 33: Bananas (or Kiwi) for Potassium!Today's episode is about Potassium! Join us to learn more about this critical element and more about it's interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comMusic by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2021-12-2234 min
The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Section(Part 1/2) Is power-seeking AI an existential risk? by Joseph CarlsmithWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio.
This is part one of: Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?, published by Joseph Carlsmith.
1. Introduction
Some worry that the development of advanced artificial intelligence will result in existential catastrophe -- that is, the destruction of humanity’s longterm potential. Here I examine the following version of this worry (it’s not the only version):
By 2070:
It will become possible and financially feasible to build AI systems with the following properties:
Advanced capability: they outperform the best huma...2021-12-181h 29
The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum Top PostsMy current framework for thinking about AGI timelines by Alex ZhuWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio.
This is: My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines, published by Alex Zhu on the AI Alignment Forum.
At the beginning of 2017, someone I deeply trusted said they thought AGI would come in 10 years, with 50% probability.
I didn't take their opinion at face value, especially since so many experts seemed confident that AGI was decades away. But the possibility of imminent apocalypse seemed plausible enough and important enough that I decided to prioritize...2021-12-0505 minThe Nonlinear Library: Alignment SectionA shift in arguments for AI risk by Richard NgoWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio.
This is: A shift in arguments for AI risk, published by Richard Ngo on the AI Alignment Forum.
This is a linkpost for/
The linked post is work done by Tom Adamczewski while at FHI. I think this sort of expository and analytic work is very valuable, so I'm cross-posting it here (with his permission). Below is an extended summary; for the full document, see his linked blog post.
Many people now work on ensuring that advanced...2021-11-1702 minThe Nonlinear Library: Alignment SectionAlignment Newsletter #21 by Rohin ShahWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio.
This is: Alignment Newsletter #21, published by Rohin Shah on the AI Alignment Forum.
Highlights
80K podcast with Katja Grace (Katja Grace and Rob Wiblin): Rob Wiblin interviewed Katja Grace of AI Impacts about her work predicting the future of AI. My main takeaway was that there are many important questions in this space that almost no one is trying to answer, and that we haven't made a good enough attempt yet to conclude that it's too hard...2021-11-1711 minElemental FunElemental Fun episode 32: Hydrogen - it's #1!!Today's episode is about Hydrogen! Join us to learn more about this very explosive (and important) element and more about it's interesting properties and cultural(ish) and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2021-11-1445 min
SanftMut - Sound Therapy Podcast#98 Sound and Silence - with Carly GraceIn this interview I am talking to Sound Healer Carly Grace. She is enchanting many people through Sound Ceremony, sharing her purpose and passion with her whole heart. In our conversation we travel back in time and discover Carly's first life changing experience with Sound Healing more than ten years ago and how this lightened up her world and the life of others. She shares an awakening that she received through sound on a visit to the Mary Magdalene cave. Join a blissful meditation with Carly in the end and listen to her Crystal Nature Sounds recorded in nature i...2021-10-2644 min
Narratives59: AI and Existential Risks with Katja GraceIn this episode, I'm joined by Quinn Lewandowski. We discuss existential risks, the current state of the world, and AI safety. Katja runs the nonprofit AI Impacts, and you can find her work at https://katjagrace.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit willjarvis.substack.com2021-09-1342 min
Narratives w/Will Jarvis59: AI and Existential Risks with Katja GraceIn this episode, I'm joined by Quinn Lewandowski. We discuss existential risks, the current state of the world, and AI safety. Katja runs the nonprofit AI Impacts, and you can find her work at https://katjagrace.com/
2021-09-1342 minElemental FunElemental Fun episode 31 Mercury....is BAD for you!Today's episode is about Mercury! Join us to learn more about this very toxic element and more about it's interesting properties and cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2021-09-0445 min
AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast10 - AI's Future and Impacts with Katja GraceWhen going about trying to ensure that AI does not cause an existential catastrophe, it's likely important to understand how AI will develop in the future, and why exactly it might or might not cause such a catastrophe. In this episode, I interview Katja Grace, researcher at AI Impacts, who's done work surveying AI researchers about when they expect superhuman AI to be reached, collecting data about how rapidly AI tends to progress, and thinking about the weak points in arguments that AI could be catastrophic for humanity. Topics we discuss: - 00:00:34 - AI...2021-07-242h 02
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 HoursFour: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questionsWill SpaceX land people on Mars in the next decade? Will North Korea give up their nuclear weapons? Will your friend turn up to dinner?Spencer Greenberg, founder of ClearerThinking.org has a process for working out such real life problems.In this conversation from 2018, Spencer walks us through how to reason through difficult questions more accurately, and when we should expect to be overconfident or underconfident. Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on August 7, 2018. Some related episodes include:2021-04-122h 17
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 HoursSix: Ajeya Cotra on worldview diversification and how big the future could beImagine that humanity has two possible futures ahead of it: Either we’re going to have a huge future like that, in which trillions of people ultimately exist, or we’re going to wipe ourselves out quite soon, thereby ensuring that only around 100 billion people ever get to live.If there are eventually going to be 1,000 trillion humans, what should we think of the fact that we seemingly find ourselves so early in history? If the future will have many trillions of people, the odds of us appearing so strangely early are very low indeed.If w...2021-04-122h 56
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 HoursSeven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it betterHave you ever been infuriated by a doctor's unwillingness to give you an honest, probabilistic estimate about what to expect? Or a lawyer who won't tell you the chances you'll win your case?Their behaviour is so frustrating because accurately predicting the future is central to every action we take. If we can't assess the likelihood of different outcomes we're in a complete bind, whether the decision concerns war and peace, work and study, or Black Mirror and RuPaul's Drag Race.Which is why the research of Professor Philip Tetlock is relevant for all of...2021-04-122h 17
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 30 Science Stories!Today's episode is another science stories! Join us to learn more about some interesting science topics. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2021-03-0531 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 29 Thallium and Arsenic!Today's episode is about Thallium and Arsenic! Join us to learn more about these very toxic and poisenous elements and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-10-311h 08
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 28 The elements of Marie Curie!Today's episode is about Marie Curie and the elements she and her husband discovered! Join us to learn more about this amazing lady and how they discovered the radioactive elements Radium and Polonium. We also discuss a little about the element Curie, which was named after Marie Curie.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2020-10-0657 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 27 Iron!Today's episode is about Iron! Join us to learn more about this well known element and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2020-08-2243 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 26 Aluminum!Today's episode is about Aluminum!Join us to learn more about this well known element and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2020-06-0336 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 25 pandemics!For today's episode we are veering off the elements and into current topics.... since we are all dealing with a pandemic right now, we thought we would discuss what that is! Join us to learn more about what a pandemic is (vs an epidemic) and the cultural and historical significance of this and past pandemics. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-04-2649 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 24 BPA!Today's episode is not about a specific element, but about BPA. Join us to learn more about this compound, why lots of plastic we buy is (or should be) labeled BPA-free, and why we should be concerned about it! Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-04-0934 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 23 Manganese!Elemental Fun Youtube blurbToday's episode is about Manganese! Join us to learn more about Manganese (not Magnesium) and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-03-2432 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 22 silicon!Today's episode is about Silicon! Join us to learn more about this element and its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-03-0136 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 21 Sulfur!Today's episode is about Sulfur! Join us to learn more about why this is associated with fire and brimstone and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2020-02-0838 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 20 Calcium and Magnesium!Today's episode is about Calcium and Magnesium! Join us to learn more about these important elements and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2020-01-1055 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 19 science stories!Today's episode is another journey into the world of science as we take a break from the elements and talk fun science stories! Join us to learn about some interesting and often weird happenings in the world of science.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes! Music by Josh Burns Graphics by Katja Willeford2019-10-2924 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 18 The Halogens!Today's episode is about the Halogens! Join us to learn more about the rest of the Halogen group and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-09-2751 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 17 Fluorine!Today's episode is about Fluorine! Join us to learn more about the lightest of the Halogen group and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-08-2044 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 16 science stories!Join Cindy and Grace as we take a break from the elements and discuss some interesting science stories! Fun facts and weird stories in science!Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-3135 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 15 Platinum!Today's episode is about the Platinum of the Platinum group: Platinum! Join us to learn more about this precious element and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.comLike! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-2143 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 14 Rhodium, Rutherium, Palladium!Today's episode is about more of the Platinum group: rhodium, rutherium and palladium!Join us to learn more about these not so well known elements and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-2149 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 13 Science stories 3!Join Cindy and Grace as we learn about some interesting happenings in the world of science - as we take a quick break from our elemental journey!Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-2138 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 12 Osmium and Iridium!Today's episode is about Osmium and Iridium! Join us to learn more about these not so well known elements and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-1531 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 11 Oxygen the all important!Today's episode is about Oxygen, the all important! Join us to learn more about this element that is so important for life and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-1550 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 10 Nitrogen is in you!Today's episode is about Nitrogen, it is everywhere - even in you! Join us to learn more about this common element, how important it is in your body and more about its interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe! Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-1551 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 9 Science Stories 2!Join Cindy and Grace in a review of some interesting science stories! Periodically (joke intended!) we will take a break from the elements and talk about some interesting stories in the science world. Why? Because science is awesome!Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-1435 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 8 Noble Gasses!Everyone wants to be Noble, even the elements! Today's episode is about the Noble Gasses. Join us to learn more about why every element wants to be them, and more about their interesting properties and cultural and historical significance.Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-07-1454 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 7 Sodium and Chloride!Today's episode is about two very important elements: Sodium and Chloride. Bonded together they are delicious table salt, but separately have very different properties! Join us to learn more about the tasty and dangerous sides of these two elements along with their cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-121h 00
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 6 getting crafty with Nickel and Copper!Cindy and Grace are getting crafty and shiny with Nickel and Copper in this week's episode! Join us to learn more about these two crafty elements and their cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-1144 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 5 Lead and Tin!Lead and Tin, a bit dull, not exciting? Think again! Join Cindy and Grace to learn more about these two interesting elements and their cultural and historical significance. Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-1146 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 4 Science Stories!Join Cindy and Grace in a review of some interesting science stories! Periodically (joke intended!) we will take a break from the elements and talk about some interesting stories in the science world. Why? Because science is awesome! Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-1131 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 3 Gold and Silver!Silver and Gold...the sun and the moon... the yin and yang of precious metals...learn more about these two important elements! Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-1144 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 2 Carbon!Carbon is everywhere! Join Cindy and Grace to learn more about this very important element and the very cool stuff it is a part of. There is a lot to talk about with this element of the periodic table! Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-1136 min
Elemental FunElemental Fun episode 1: Meet Grace and Cindy!Welcome to Elemental Fun!Meet Grace and Cindy: two science lovers that want to talk about the cultural and historical importance of each element on the periodic table. Are we qualified? Maybe! Join us for some cool information and a few laughs along the way!Feel free to contact us at elementalfunpodcast@gmail.com Like! Subscribe! Find us on iTunes!Music by Josh BurnsGraphics by Katja Willeford2019-06-0511 min
Creative Next: AI Automation at WorkWhen Will AI Exceed Human Performance?Researcher Katja Grace joins Dirk and Jon to discuss upcoming AI achievements. We then explore expert predictions in Katja’s research paper, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?, to project when key advances will happen. AI researcher Katja Grace joins Dirk and Jon to talk about her work. In 2016 Katja led a research project that gathered input from hundreds of AI experts to speculate about the timeframe in which different advances would be completed. We talk about the many predictions from her paper, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?, spanning practical applications like self-driving cars and generating po...2019-04-231h 01
80,000 Hours Podcast#40 - Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictionsExperts believe that artificial intelligence will be better than humans at driving trucks by 2027, working in retail by 2031, writing bestselling books by 2049, and working as surgeons by 2053. But how seriously should we take these predictions?
Katja Grace, lead author of ‘When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?’, thinks we should treat such guesses as only weak evidence. But she also says there might be much better ways to forecast transformative technology, and that anticipating such advances could be one of our most important projects.
Note: Katja's organisation AI Impacts is currently hiring part- and full-time researchers.2018-08-212h 11
The Digital Life - Design and Technology PodcastAI and Knowledge WorkOn The Digital Life this week, we chat with special guest Katja Grace from AI Impacts, whose research is focused is the future of AI. Where will AI be in 10 years and what kind of impact will it have on the world? The buzz now is that deep learning will increasingly automate knowledge work. AI and automation will change creative fields, from research science to journalism, fiction writing to graphic design, software engineering to management activities. Join us as we discuss.2018-08-1618 min
EA TalksEAG 2017 SF: AI safety (Katja Grace)Source: Effective Altruism Global (video).Effective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube. 2017-11-0317 min