Shows
Markets, Mystics and MayhemGold and silver gains Warshed awayThe gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-term rates, markets are picking that he may return to his hawkish roots. Especially because of his strong advocacy for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet...
2026-02-0327 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemInflation hits 3.1% but the devil's in the dirty detailsNew year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The lift in headline inflation is a frustration. But it’s the dirty details, from sticky domestic inflation to stubborn underlying inflation that are of most concern. There was overall more broad-based strength than we expected across prices in the December quarter. But the signs aren't there yet to suggest a shift in demand. Importantly, we still expect annual inflation to fall back within the band this...
2026-01-2829 min
Heather du Plessis-Allan DriveSteve Jurkovich: Kiwibank CEO chats scrapped $500m capital raiseKiwibank has scrapped it's plans for partial privatisation after the Reserve Bank announced it's reduction of the amount of capital it requires banks to hold to protect their depositors in the event of a crisis. The bank had been talking to investors, seeking a $500 million capital raise after the Government gave it the green light to raise money to become more competitive. Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich talked to Andrew Dickens about the change and the future of the market. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2025-12-1904 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemCrystal ball gazing: We see a grand fix in ‘26We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next y...
2025-12-1730 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemHammers over handbags: What Kiwi bought this Black FridayFrom spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores...
2025-12-0916 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemHammers over handbags: What Kiwi bought this Black FridayFrom spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date.This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, a...
2025-12-0916 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIs this the low in interest rates?Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big m...
2025-12-0224 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe lay of the land in lending ft Belinda NewmanIn this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand...Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing agri loans has fallen steeply. That’s great news, but it’s limited the spillover of activity into other parts of the real economy. More generally, the current weakness in the economy is...
2025-11-1834 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIt’s unfair. Inflation hurts some more than othersIn part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is hurting some more than others. It's unfair. Households that spend the least are now facing the highest inflation. Followed closely by retirees and beneficiaries. Meanwhile, high-spending and high-income households are seeing much smaller increases in living cos...
2025-11-1127 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIs the Kiwi jobs market at a turning point?Tune in for part one of a double-header episode - we're looking at both sides of the Phillips Curve. This week: the unemployment rate. There’s still a significant amount of slack in the Kiwi jobs market. The unemployment rate climbed to a nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter, and employment was down 0.6% on the year. Wage growth also continues to moderate, another sign of a soft market. In this episode, we unpack the latest numbers, how it changes the outlook, and what it means for policyHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Ve...
2025-11-0619 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemUnlocking efficiency one robot at a time: How the world of logistics is changingWe’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron Hobbs. We had the privilege of touring their warehouses. And we got the the inside scoop on how cutting-edge robotics have transformed their Kiwi business.As per the title of the episode, the team at DSL are unlocking efficiency and boosting productivity one robot at a time. Their tabletop sortation robotic solution to packing and processing is one-of-a-kind in New Zealand. And it’s delivering real results, from lower costs to imp...
2025-10-2835 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBiting Into budgets: The rising cost of essentialsInflation has climbed to the top end of the RBNZ’s target band. But there is no need for panic. A reacceleration in imported inflation as well as sticky administered costs are driving the move higher. But the more interest rate sensitive components of CPI, like rents and construction costs, remain soft. We continue to expect inflation to return towards the RBNZ’s 2% mid-point in early 2026The rising costs across essentials is however biting into wallets and having an impact on consumption. Our latest look at Kiwibank spending data shows that households are being forced to prioritise cost...
2025-10-2120 minHeather du Plessis-Allan DriveJarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on whether inflation is set to go down following recent statsThere's belief from some economists that inflation's peaked, and it's all downhill from here. It reached 3 percent in the year to September - up from 2.2 percent the year before. Kiwibank says the third quarter is traditionally tough, and conditions are likely to improve as the year ends. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says he's satisfied domestic prices will now ease. "We think inflation, this time next year, will be running at about 1.7, 1.8 percent. So job done for the Reserve Bank." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for pri...
2025-10-2001 min
Best of BusinessJarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on whether inflation is set to go down following recent statsThere's belief from some economists that inflation's peaked, and it's all downhill from here. It reached 3 percent in the year to September - up from 2.2 percent the year before. Kiwibank says the third quarter is traditionally tough, and conditions are likely to improve as the year ends. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says he's satisfied domestic prices will now ease. "We think inflation, this time next year, will be running at about 1.7, 1.8 percent. So job done for the Reserve Bank." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for pri...
2025-10-2002 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBusinesses are finally being heard. The RBNZ delivers 50This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into the impact of the RBNZ’s circuit-breaking 50bps rate cut. As Elliot puts it, the move feels like the RBNZ is finally hearing the struggles of Kiwi businesses. But while there’s been a sense of relief, caution still lingers. Businesses are starting to feel like it’s time to take action, but hesitancy remains. Amid tough operating and financial conditions, the inaction around expansion decisions have been an ongoing theme. However, with monetary p...
2025-10-1424 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemCurrency lowdown with the Kiwi southboundWe’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest FX Tactical. After some time of tariff headlines driving currencies, interest rate differentials are now back at wheel driving currency movements. And with the RBNZ clearly needing to do more relative to other central banks, the Kiwi dollar has come under significant downwards pressure. So, we’re diving into the performance and outlook for the Kiwi dollar against the Greenback, Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. And as always, we couldn’t resist throwing Wilkie a curvebal...
2025-09-3027 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemJust do it: 75bps needed nowWe’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the approp...
2025-09-2325 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe economics of rhinos, elephants, and crocodilesWe’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re delving into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. As well as unpacking the economic drivers in wildlife black markets. Brendan talks us through real-world examples involving rhinos and crocodiles to show how market-based approaches can support sustainable protection. We also explore how the fall in interest rates and a crashing equity market during the 2008 GFC led to a surge in unscrupulous investment in ele...
2025-09-1528 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe economics of climate changeThis week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zeal...
2025-09-1035 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe Kiwi loses flight. Helpful for some, headache for othersAdrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, we were heading into the US election, central banks were at the start of the easing cycle, and the Kiwi dollar was climbing towards 64c. Today, tariffs dominate the headlines and uncertainty remains elevated.In all that, the Kiwi dollar has lost flight. But it’s a double-edged sword. A lower Kiwi is good news for exporters, not so much for importers. Adrian shares all the anecdotes he's hearing from his clients across the im...
2025-09-0216 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemGame on! The RBNZ signals 2.5%.After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Ve...
2025-08-2523 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe Tasman tug-of-war: NZ vs OZThe Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks.
2025-08-1924 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBeneath the bonnet: The Kiwi job market is weaker than it seemsWe’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality. Combined with weak underlying price pressures and the fact that inflation expectations have remained comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band, all the data to date supports, if not demands, further rate relief. We should see a 25bps cut next week to 3%. And continue to call for an eventual move to 2.5%.Ho...
2025-08-1217 min
CheckpointUnemployment worse than it looks - KiwibankUnemployment is at a nine year high, of 5.2%. But Kiwibank believes the topline figure doesn't paint the full picture of how bad things really are. In the past year 16,000 more people have joined the snaking queue of people looking for work, bringing the total number to 158,000. Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado spoke to Lisa Owen.
2025-08-0605 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe stars are aligned. Cuts to come.It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the im...
2025-08-0522 min
Early Edition with Ryan BridgeClaire Matthews: Massey University Banking Expert on Kiwibank gaining approval to gain new capitalA banking expert believes new capital for Kiwibank will shift the dial but won't completely close the gap with its Australian competitors. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has announced the bank's parent company is being allowed to raise half a billion dollars from private investors to help it close in on the four major banks. Massey University banking expert Claire Matthews told Ryan Bridge Kiwibank is already making a difference, but can't see the announcement making a big enough splash. She says enabling it to grow will help, but the competition issue in the mar...
2025-07-3103 minBest of BusinessNicola Willis: Finance Minister on KiwiBank being given the green light to raise an additional $500 millionThe Finance Minister's floating the idea of listing KiwiBank on the stock exchange. Cabinet has given KiwiBank's parent company the green light to raise an extra $500 million. However, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says this won't occur without an electoral mandate. "That will be for individual parties to take a position at the election - but I've been advised that any potential public offering could take place before 2028." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2025-07-3004 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe regional divide widens as everything just gets better the further you go south.This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to o...
2025-07-2924 min
The Sunday Session with Francesca RudkinJarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on the South Island's economy recovering quicker than the North'sThe South Island seems to be pulling ahead of the North as New Zealand crawls out of the recession. Kiwibank’s latest report reveals economic activity is picking up across most of the country - but recovery remains fragile. It indicates booms in agriculture and tourism have aided recovery in places like Otago and Southland. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says the tide is turning for the economy, but the nature of last year's recession means recovery will take longer than expected. "It's not fast enough for me - the way we'r...
2025-07-2704 minBest of BusinessJarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on the South Island's economy recovering quicker than the North'sThe South Island seems to be pulling ahead of the North as New Zealand crawls out of the recession. Kiwibank’s latest report reveals economic activity is picking up across most of the country - but recovery remains fragile. It indicates booms in agriculture and tourism have aided recovery in places like Otago and Southland. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says the tide is turning for the economy, but the nature of last year's recession means recovery will take longer than expected. "It's not fast enough for me - the way we'r...
2025-07-2704 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemHeadline heads north. But core matters more.Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically driving the rise and where price pressures are coming off. Spoiler, it's the Interest rate-sensitive parts of the consumer basket that are notably weak. And that matters for the outlook...
2025-07-2221 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemRBNZ takes a breather. What happens next?After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision. Policymakers around the globe are still grappling with trade tariffs and the inflationary implications. High uncertainty has forced central banks, from Wellington to Washington, into a wait and see mode. But the RBNZ's bias, rightly rema...
2025-07-1528 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemWhy the mood is up, but momentum isn't? The state of Kiwi businessGreg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze and hurt profitability. As Greg points out, the focus for many businesses is squarely on revenue. It’s clear that a sustained recovery in demand has yet to be seen. And it’s why we still...
2025-07-0825 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemA rich tapestry of complicated currency issuesOur Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines suggest the Kiwi should be in the 50s. Yet here we are with the bird close to breaching 61c. Broader themes are in play. Some are calling it Judgement Day for the US dollar. We discuss why that view is a tad bit dramatic.But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen.Yo...
2025-07-0125 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemInflation is eye-watering to look throughWe’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here at home and in the US. But we’re nowhere near that yet. So, we’re sitting down and talking about the recent lift in inflation and how Central Banks, like the Reserve Bank, should look through these shor...
2025-06-2424 minMarkets, Mystics and Mayhem3 mystics, 3 scenarios, and one clouded crystal ball. Revised outlookWe’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy. And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in times like these? We go through the how, including delving into two alternative paths the Kiwi economy could take. And we explain why forecasting is a very helpful tool precisely in...
2025-06-1730 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemFirms frontload, Fed waits, and friends fall out: a US specialIt’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts.We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the start of the unwind. After a surge in imports earlier this year, April saw the sharpest drop in U.S. imp...
2025-06-1117 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemA hawk and a dove at the same time. The RBNZ cuts 25Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened. The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissenting 5-1 vote, the RBNZ’s top brass were crystal clear in their clouded uncertainty. So how do we make sense of it? Where to from here? And, how have markets responded? We’re c...
2025-06-0419 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBehind the scenes and behind the numbers: Budget 2025Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies announced. Set against a challenging backdrop, Budget 2025 revealed an inevitable downgrade to the economic and fiscal outlook. A return to surplus is still achieved, but you’ll need a magnif...
2025-05-2727 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemUrgent couriers front run an economy without green shootsThis is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the courier and logistics industry and what it tells us about the broader economy. As Steve aptly puts it, rapid delivery services serve as a bellwether for the economy. When the market shifts, they’re the first to experience it. So, what’s the industry signalling for the Kiwi economy? According to Steve and his team, greenshoots are not in sight. Enquiries are low and clients are still price-sensitive. Not quite the signs of a rec...
2025-05-2033 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemAll labour market indicators point to weaknessThis week we’re delving into the details of the latest Kiwi labour market report. The scars of the recession we’ve been through are still raw with every indicator in the unemployment report pointing to weakness. And youth are bearing the brunt of it. We break down the numbers and explore how they’re feeding into the broader inflation outlook. Plus, what it all means for monetary policy. Spoiler: it strengthens the case for more rate relief. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our ec...
2025-05-1321 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemHitting pause. Investment decisions gathering dust on the shelfIn this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain environment. As economists we love to talk through scenarios. We’re always considering the upside and downside risks when forming our view. David however tends to pitch his tent in camp downside...Tune in as we cover the latest on business appetite, credit dynamics, and the evolving risk landscape. Credit availability has and continues to improve. But demand for credit remains subdued with businesses still holding back on borrowing. Amid tariff uncertainty and a potential global slowdo...
2025-05-0724 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIt’s mayhem, messy and melodramatic in marketsWe’re back after a week off, and we’re still sitting, waiting, wishing for tariff de-escalation. Trade talks remain underway between several countries and the US. But any announcements are yet to be seen. And no one knows if the US trade talks with China have started. Trump says they have. China says they haven’t. We’re stuck in limbo. Time is of the essence, and the clock is ticking. The longer negotiations take, the longer the global economy remains in a heightened sense of insecurity. And the greater the damage to global growth. The IMF has already...
2025-04-2917 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemKiss the ring. Trade talks beginThe US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficult to say with any certainty what will result. But we take a crack at mapping three possible paths that the global economy could take from here. We unpack what each scenario could mean for the state of our economy, including the implications for central banks, interest rates, and broader global economic growth. Plus, we take a closer look at how markets have reacted so far. From a spike in volatility to a run-up in gold...
2025-04-1528 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemLiberation day or obliteration day...it's mayhem in marketsWe’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity currencies and interest rates. The so-called reciprocal tariffs were worse than feared, especially for emerging Asia. The focus is now on retaliatory action. And China is already striking back. Things have only just begun. We were joined by Kiwibank Treasurer, Belinda Newman, to help us unpack all the moves in markets. The world as we know it is changing with a hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation now reversing. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary...
2025-04-0822 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemTariff turmoil drives currency markets. Where will the Kiwi dollar go from here?Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played out largely as we had thought. And we’re now looking to an eventual climb to 60c by year end. The here and now though sees the NZD rangebound at current levels with growing global downside risks. But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr...
2025-04-0121 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemOne last goodbye to 2024. The Kiwi economy crawls out of recessionWe know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report card. And given it shows us crawling out of recession, we figured it was worth covering the first step in the Kiwi economy’s recovery. We take a closer look at the industries driving growth, as well as those that are still facing challenges. But let's not dwell on almost 3month old data. We're looking ahead. Our attention is now on more recent, higher-frequency data which look promising for a turnaround in activity th...
2025-03-2419 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemPrimary sector pulse picks up: Trade treks higherThis week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their way closer to pre-covid levels. We also discuss how the lower Kiwi dollar is adding additional support for our Kiwi exports. And of course, we couldn’t go without touching on the...
2025-03-1716 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBonus episode: Investing in uncertain times. We navigate with Mike TaylorThe same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very fortunate to have Mike Taylor, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pie Funds, join us on a special bonus episode to discuss his view on equity markets. And strategies to navigate investing in these volatile times. It's a jam-packed episode. We cover everything from where we see equities ending the year, to discussions on cryptocurrency and gold. Plus, a conversation on kiwi superannuation. This is one to watch. Hosted by J...
2025-03-1223 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemUncertainty, volatility, and interest ratesRoss Weston, Kiwibank Head of Balance Sheet, is back on the podcast and it’s another jam-packed episode. In the wake of Trump 2.0, global uncertainty is dominating headlines and markets. Wholesale interest rates have seen big swings up and down. Beyond that, we cover expectations of future RBNZ meetings. Always one step ahead, market traders are already looking beyond the current cutting cycle and thinking about the next move – hikes. We also chat about RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation and what that means for future monetary policy and whether a review of bank capital policies could be in the bo...
2025-03-1120 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemUnshackled property investors: Restraints liftedThe housing market is prepped, primed and positioned for a pick up. Interest rates are the biggest driver of moves in the market. But recent changes to the Brightline test, CCCFA, interest deductibility and so on should also help investors off the sideline. The RBNZ also tinkered with its macroprudential toolkit easing up its handbrake on credit growth. We go through each key change and its likely impact. We also address the factors affecting the demand and supply of housing and what it means for our forecasts.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara...
2025-03-0323 min
The NZ Property Market PodcastGuest episode - IWD2025 Nicole Pervan KiwibankSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Pervan, GM of Home Lending at Kiwibank, in celebration of International Women's Day 2025. They discuss Nicole's personal and professional journey, the challenges women face in the workplace, and the importance of financial literacy and home ownership. Nicole shares insights on leadership development at Kiwibank, the attributes of effective leaders, and offers advice for young leaders. The conversation emphasises the significance of International Women's Day and the need for deliberate ac...
2025-03-0228 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe RBNZ cuts 50bps. More please. The economy needs helpThe RBNZ cut the cash rate to 3.75%, and signalled more cuts to come. With inflation now stabilising, the economy needs relief. In this episode, we run through the RBNZ’s latest policy statement and fresh forecasts. The Kiwi economy is set to recover this year, but there remains key uncertainties. There are signs of improvement in more timely activity indicators, but the balance of risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside. We discuss what this means for financial markets. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & in...
2025-02-2521 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemExpectations become reality. That’s the magic of inflation targetingThis week we’re diving into the power of inflation expectations. History has proven expectations of inflation are self-reinforcing. Expect low inflation and low inflation you shall receive. Expect high inflation and high inflation it is. The great news is that here at home, inflation expectations are freshly anchored at the RBNZ 2% sweet spot. We discuss the importance of the move, and how it should give the RBNZ confidence to deliver more. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/th...
2025-02-1719 minMarkets, Mystics and Mayhem32,000 jobs lost in 2024, RBNZ - What are you waiting for?Unemployment is higher, employment growth remains in contraction, workers are being forced to the exits, and even total hours worked are in decline. The labour market continues to soften. We're delving into the details, including the demographic and the industry breakdown on who felt the brunt of the labour market slow down over 2024. With 32,000 jobs lost, there’s a lot of pain out there. Most of which has been felt by men and those newest to the labour force. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here:http...
2025-02-1115 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemTo fix or not to fix, mortgage rates in questionThis week we take a look at the mortgage book across Aotearoa. In anticipation of further rate cuts from the RBNZ the book has shortened up with 81% of borrowers fixing for one year or less.It’s a gamble that’s paying off. Naturally, the question now turns to when borrowers should fix for longer. We give our two cents. The move to shorter-dated rates is also a large driver in why we expect a recovery in the second half of this year. However, the longer-term outlook for growth is inhibited by ongoing kiwi productivity woes. We dive deeper into...
2025-02-0419 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemTwenty-twenty-ThriveWe're back from break and feeling good about 2025. In this episode, we cover our expectations for the Kiwi economy this year - a year of two halves. The first half sees the economy is in an awkward phase. Confidence has improved, but activity is still depressed. Growth however should pick up in the second half as interest rate cuts feed through to the economy. Things are falling into place for a better year. We also touch on everything you may have missed over the break. From the latest inflation and business confidence numbers to the...
2025-01-2915 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemKeep Calm and carry Kiwi as currency crumblesIn the last episode of the year, Hamish Wilkinson is back to talk to Jarrod and Mary Jo about the Kiwi currency. They go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. They also throw Hamish a curly cross that makes him try to phone a friend...Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow their economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of...
2024-12-1818 min
On Pointep 230 | Is a Kiwibank IPO on the cards, and would it be a good thing?Kiwibank has been in the news again, with the Government announcing it will consider tapping KiwiSaver funds and other large investors for another $500 million to inject into the business. Is this move a stepping stone on the path to a full-blown IPO and sharemarket listing, and would this be a good thing for the company, taxpayers and the market?
2024-12-1606 min
Slice Home BuyersKiwibank CEO made this mistake buying his first home... with Steve JurkovichDespite an impressive background in law and banking, Steve CEO of Kiwibank still found his buying his first home daunting.
Join Amy and Steve as they dive into Steve's home buying mistakes and hear Steve's expert perspective on property markets.
Book in for a free consult with one of our NZHL Financial Advisers.
Sign up to Slice’s Free Home Buyers Software.
2024-12-1128 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBreaking down Black FridayBlack Friday deals are everywhere, and it’s been hard to escape the ads since mid-November. But what’s the real impact on consumer behaviour? Join Kiwibank Economist Mary Jo Vergara as she unpacks the latest card spending data from Black Friday, offering valuable insights into spending patterns and what we can expect this festive season, including Boxing Day. Tune in for a deep dive into shifting trends and a look ahead at the retail landscape for 2025.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Follow their economic commentary & insights here:
https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thri...
2024-12-1017 minBest of BusinessBarry Soper: ZB senior political correspondent on the Government bolstering Kiwibank in a bid to increase banking competitionThe Government's helping boost competition in banking by bolstering Kiwibank. The Commerce Commission recently painted the banking landscape as an oligopoly in a review - pointing to the domination by the big four Australian players. Today, Prime Minister Chris Luxon's announced he wants to implement all its 14 recommendations and disrupt the status quo. Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says this boost won't make Kiwibank an equal to the big four in Australia - but a cash boost is good for consumers. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for...
2024-12-0907 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe Reserve Bank delivers more and lessThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their 13th episode of
Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is a detailed run-down of the Reserve Bank's November Monetary Policy Statement. Where are interest rates heading from here? And what does this mean for Kiwi households and businesses? They discuss it all. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Follow their economic commentary & insights here:
https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
2024-12-0217 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIt's all about commercial propertyThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their 12th episode of
Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi commercial property.
Just like the housing market, commercial property has been
hit hard by the Reserve Bank’s heavy handed hikes. But the downturn across commercial property goes beyond a story of high interest rates. Since Covid, and the lockdowns that followed, behavioural shifts like working from home and
the rise of online shopping has added extra headwinds to the commercial property landscape.
The Kiwibank Economists discuss what’s happening, and what’s in store...
2024-11-2615 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemIt's all about housingThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their 11th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi housing market.As Kiwi, we're obsessed with housing and it has been volatile over the last few years. The Kiwibank Economists look deep into the data - from house prices, to listings, and days to sell - to talk about the latest moves in the housing market across Aotearoa.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq...
2024-11-1816 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemA consequential cooling in the Kiwi labour marketThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their 10th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
In this episode, the Economists are talking about the cooling Kiwi labour market. Weak economic activity following two years of recession is now resulting in job losses. They cover rising unemployment, where it's heading and what this means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Plus, in line with the name of the show, they use their mystic future seeing skills to talk about where they see the Kiwi labour market heading.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara...
2024-11-1112 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemCounting the climbing cost of climate changeThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their 9th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
In this episode they're talking about one of the biggest issues the world is facing right now. Climate change. More and more we’re seeing the effects of climate change in our daily life. Floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. They’re all becoming more frequent. So, what does this mean for the economy?
The team have the tough discussion on what they think we'll see across insurance, the housing market, and even interest rates in a world...
2024-11-0519 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemHow does Aotearoa compare to Australia?
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their eighth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
The RBNZ was among the first and most aggressive central banks in hiking interest rates, post-Covid. But in a recent speech, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signalled that they can be “more incremental” on the way down. This week, our Economists give their take on how incremental is incremental.
This week they also take a look at the growing divergence between the Aussie and Kiwi economies. The root cause? Monetary policy. The RBA and RBNZ took very different strategies post-Covid.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Verg...
2024-10-2924 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe cost of living crisis comes to an endThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their seventh episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the cost of living crisis which has significantly impacted Kiwi households, particularly those with lower incomes. Everyday essentials like food and fuel have risen faster than incomes.
While these households struggle with tight budgets, recent trends indicate a shift, with pay rises running above inflation. Although inflation is gradually easing, and falling interest rates along with rising house prices are expected to bring relief in 2025, meaningful improvements are still anticipated to take time.
Hosted by Jarrod...
2024-10-2213 min
Cheques and BalancesCPI & Inflation Data Update: What’s Next For New Zealand? Ft. Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr | Episode 229We’re joined once again by Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss the latest CPI and inflation data, offering insights into how these shifts are shaping New Zealand's economic future.
This episode is proudly sponsored by Partners Life.
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The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.
2024-10-1732 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemThe RBNZ goes 50, more to comeThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their sixth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.This week the team cover the RBNZ’s October policy decision and what that means for our growth forecasts. Later in the episode, Ross Weston, Head of Balance Sheet at Kiwibank joins the Economists to talk all about rates.They chat about how financial markets reacted to the RBNZ's 50bp rate cut, and how the shape of the yield curve has evolved in recent monthsHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights he...
2024-10-1524 min
Markets, Mystics and MayhemBusiness confidence climbing with cutsThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their fifth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
This week the team are talking about the confidence of Kiwi business, and how it's evolving. Later in the episode, they're talking to Elliot Smith, Kiwibank's Chief Customer Officer – Business about what he's seeing, and what's happening in the broader economy.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
2024-10-0716 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemBeyond China, beyond the GreenbackThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their fourth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.This week the team are talking about New Zealand's largest trading partner - China and how the Chinese economy and the New Zealand economy are performing. Later in the episode, we'll hear from Hamish Wilkinson, one of our Senior FX Dealers at Kiwibank to talk about currency.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given...
2024-10-0122 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemFed leapfrogs the RBNZ and shipping's expensiveThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their third episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.They're talking about the US Federal Reserve, a little bit about the Kiwi economy and how it's performed recently. Later in the episode we hear from Adrian Lodge, one of our Senior Dealers in our Financial Markets team at Kiwibank. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view...
2024-09-2418 min
The NBR Podcast#14: Kiwibank CE won't take every cent off tableIn this episode of The NBR Podcast with Simon Shepherd: What does Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich think of the "cosy pillow fight" in the banking industry? He explains why he would say no to a billion dollars in capital and why a foreign bank could possibly own a slice of our "people's bank".
Timestamps below:
(02:24) - It's been described as an oligopoly.
(4:54) - So how much money does Kiwi bank need to disrupt that cozy pillow fight?
(11:58) - Is there any possibility in your mind that an overseas bank could take a share?
For more independent journalism, and to get...
2024-09-2421 min
The Property Academy PodcastFuture of NZ house prices with Kiwibank chief economist – Jarrod Kerr ⎥ Ep. 1835In this episode, we discuss the future of the NZ housing market and house prices with Kiwibank's chief economist, Jarrod Kerr.
And as mentioned here is the link to the economics section of the Kiwibank website.
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2024-09-1922 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemMassive migration, hindered housing & confusing currenciesThe Kiwibank Economists are back for their second episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about the massive migration flows we've seen in New Zealand over the last decade and about what this means for the economy. They'll also talk about a Kiwi favourite - housing. Later in the episode we'll hear from Mieneke Perniskie - FX Trader in our Financial Markets team.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: Kiwi Economics | Thrive HQ (kiwibank.co.nz)
Any views or information s...
2024-09-1718 minMarkets, Mystics and MayhemCentral Banks in focusJoin the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on the first episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The team will delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Read more about the economic commentary & insights from our Kiwibank Economists here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwi...
2024-09-1015 min
Shared LunchPhew! Interest rates go south! With KiwiBank's Jarrod KerrThe cut in the official cash rate to 5.25% is a huge relief for mortgage holders and businesses. We talk to Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr about the significance of this move. Where is inflation at? Will there be further cuts in quick succession or a slow burn? What does this mean for house prices? Don’t miss this short episode for all the answers. For more or to watch on youtube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the pr...
2024-08-1410 minCheques and BalancesWhat To Expect From New Zealand's Housing Market In 2025 Ft. Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr | Episode 191We’re joined by Kiwibank’s Chief Economist, Jarrod Kerr, to explore the challenges and opportunities within the New Zealand property market and broader economy. We cover everything from government housing initiatives and recent migration trends to the NZ stock market compared to the US and KiwiSaver contributions. Tune in for a deep dive into economic strategies and their implications for New Zealand's future.
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The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.
2024-07-2145 minCheques and BalancesWill Interest Rates Be At 5% By The End Of 2025? Ft. Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr | Episode 190We’re joined once again by Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss New Zealand’s latest inflation numbers and the forecast for interest rates. We explore whether rates will drop to 5% by the end of 2025 and share insights on the current economic challenges, the anticipated fall in inflation, and the potential for a rate cut by November.
For more money tips follow us on:
Facebook
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The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.
2024-07-1742 min
Kerre Woodham Mornings PodcastJarrod Kerr: Kiwibank Chief Economist on the OCR announcement, possibility of rate cutsThe Reserve Bank has softened its language in the July Monetary Policy Review, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 5.5% It's now saying inflation will make the 1-3% target this year. Kiwibank economists say it's a move that has increased market confidence in a rate cut later this year. Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr told Kerre Woodham that we’ve been in a recession for a year and a half, and it’ll take some rate cuts to jolt us out of it. He said that they are optimistic and have been telling clients...
2024-07-1111 min