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Luca Dellanna

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Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski2026-02-201h 17Too Big To Fail - Finanza personale a 3 voci2026-01-0848 minTribe Talks: Building Teams That Thrive2026-01-0544 minTZB阅览
TZB阅览E51. Ergodicity 遍历性:一个与资本长期复利密切相关的重要概念遍历性(Ergodicity) 描述的是:在一个系统中,若一个个体的长期平均表现,等同于群体同时参与时的平均表现,这个系统具有遍历性;若两者不同,则系统是非遍历的。时间平均(time average) = 群体平均(ensemble average)本书作者 Luca Dellanna 的核心观点是:现实世界中的许多系统(如投资、职业、生理、社会关系)都是非遍历的。因为这些系统中存在不可逆损失(irreversible losses)——一旦破产、受伤、失去信任或死亡,就无法回到原点,因此时间平均和群体平均会产生巨大差异。Dellanna 出生于意大利,都灵人,机械工程出身,早年在杜邦的咨询部门从事运营与管理改进工作,后来辞职成为独立研究者与顾问。他的写作始终围绕三个关键词:风险、非线性、长期性。也正因咨询一线的观察,他发现很多组织与个人的失败并非源于不会赢,而是“没能留下来”。Dellanna 讲述了一个真实故事:他的表弟出生在法国阿尔卑斯山的一个小村庄,从小滑雪,少年组就能参加世界锦标赛。但在通往成人组的十年间,他一次次遭遇腿部伤病,最终被迫在二十岁前退役。真正的冠军不是速度最快的人,而是在那些没有被淘汰的人中跑得最快的人。在投资中也是如此:群体平均可能显示一个高风险策略平均回报很高,但个体时间平均可能因为一次巨大亏损而彻底出局。Anseres Capital 创始人 Robert Joo-Hyung Lee 也在谈到投资时也提到这本书的这个故事,他认为它形象地说明了长期投资的本质:没有生存,就没有长期投资。Lee 强调,他宁可在谨慎的一侧犯错,也不愿让资本承担永久性亏损的风险。Anseres Capital 创始人 Robert Joo-Hyung Lee:没有生存,就没有长期投资投资作家 Tobias Carlisle 评价《Ergodicity》讲清了一个通常难以解释的概念,他多次邀请作者讨论长期胜利的条件。在投资人社群 MOI Global 的对谈中,主持人 John Mihaljevic 认为这本书是对投资者极具启发意义的概念工具,并特别提到书中关于永久性亏损吞噬未来收益的案例,认为这是帮助投资者理解风险本质的极佳素材。价值投资者 Guy Spier 也多次在公开场合引用和推荐这本书。
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