Shows
The MUFG Global Markets PodcastFocus on FOMC turns to the BoJ and BoE in final full week of tradingDerek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?
2025-12-1216 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow have fiscal concerns been impacting GBP & JPY performance?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound’s reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?
2025-11-2808 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJapan and UK fiscal challenges in focusFollowing the supplementary budget announced in Japan on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales to discuss the details of the package what it means for JGB issuance plans going forward and the possible impact on JGB yields and the yen. Looking ahead of next week Derek and Jack discuss the UK budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday 26th November and what will be key for Gilts and the pound.
2025-11-2116 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill the GBP continue to underperform?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving the GBP sell-off over the past week. Is the recent GBP weakness likely to continue heading into next year?
2025-11-1407 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastBoE policy outlook, the UK budget and FX and Rates implicationsThis week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Henry Cook, Europe Economist to discuss the implications of the BoE MPC monetary policy decision this week. Henry and Derek discuss the key takeaways from the meeting and the financial market impact on rates and the pound. The upcoming budget implications are also discussed. The budget is crucial both from a political and markets perspective. The outlook for ECB monetary policy and MUFG’s ECB policy and euro forecasts are also outlined.
2025-11-0719 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill the yen sell-off continue after latest BoJ driven sell-off?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade, Deputy Head | UK, Ireland, Swiss and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss what’s next for the yen after it was by far the worst performing G10 currency in October. The pound has also underperformed alongside the yen recently, will this continue ahead of BoE’s upcoming policy meeting?
2025-10-3111 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastOctober 2025 FOMC Preview QT out, flexible reserves in… (Podcast Edition)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas, shares our latest macro perspectives in light of the government shutdown and ongoing updates to US trade policy. However, the main focus was on the teams expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition to expecting a 25bp cut, with reserves continuing to shrink and Chair Powell signaling that the Fed may be approaching the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program, George believes this meeting could serve as a platform to begin mapping out a path to conclude QT by year-end.
2025-10-2817 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS-Japan relations in focus in key week ahead for JPYThis week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk to Shan Husain in FI FX Sales about the outlook for rates and FX ahead of a busy week. In Japan PM Sanae Takaichi’s speech in the Diet signals fiscal expansion. President Trump will be in Tokyo and then we also have the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The softer CPI print today leaves the Fed well placed to cut. Derek also discusses the implications for the pound after weaker than expected inflation data this week.
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2025-10-2412 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow have political & trade risks impacted the FX market?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving a weaker USD over the past week. How important have political and trade risks been for FX market performance?
2025-10-1707 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastPolitical uncertainty driving FX market and gold price?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the latest political developments in France and Japan are impacting the FX market. Heightened uncertainty has helped to lift the price of gold to fresh highs above USD4000/ounce, how have FX rates performed during periods of rising gold prices?
2025-10-1008 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill MAS ease in October?After easing twice this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its policy unchanged in July. Since then, inflation has eased and export momentum is showing signs of weakness. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether MAS will ease again in October? Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst with the MUFG Global Markets Asia Research team talks to Jamie Tsukakoshi, Head of FX Sales, Global Clients Singapore, about the outlook for MAS policy and the trajectory of the Singapore dollar.
2025-10-0807 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastYen volatility, the BoJ and the FedThe US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going forward. In addition Derek discusses with James the implications of the ongoing government shutdown running into the FOMC meeting later this month.
2025-10-0316 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastIt’s Still a Reach for a Goldilocks Outcome… (Podcast Edition)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, shares how our latest macro thinking has evolved, where our longstanding view that the weak labor market and ongoing large revisions would result in a Fed pivot and a restart of easing in September. There was a high level recap of the special topic from the latest monthly which covered Asia FX reserves. Our analysis shows that we’ve come full circle since the Asia financial crisis which was the catalyst for Asia to accumulate dollars, but with tariffs now in place, perhaps less dollar recycle occurs with clear implications fo...
2025-10-0116 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill stronger US growth create foundations for a bigger USD rebound?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how positive US economic data surprises have been encouraging a stronger USD. Will the divergence between weak US employment growth and stronger US GDP growth continue in the week ahead?
2025-09-2606 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS dollar gains unlikely to be sustainedFollowing the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BoJ meeting on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Chris Jack Jakubowski, Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of these central bank meetings on USD/JPY and the dollar more generally. Derek discusses the BoJ decision and how the upcoming LDP leadership election could play and important role in BoJ policy decisions and the yen.
2025-09-1916 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow will the BoE’s policy update impact GBP performance?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoE’s upcoming policy meeting continue to provide support for the GBP?
2025-09-1208 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill the USD continue to fall as the Fed moves closer to cutting rates?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss the outlook for the USD after the release of another weak nonfarm payrolls report. Will political uncertainty in France and Japan help to dampen USD weakness?
2025-09-0511 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastRupiah outlook tested by protestsLloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah amid political uncertainty. Lloyd also highlights that Bank Indonesia’s FX intervention and the government’s rollback of its controversial policy have helped stabilize market sentiment on the rupiah for now.
2025-09-0408 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS dollar resilience unlikely to lastThe US dollar has been broadly stable this week despite the escalation of uncertainty related to Trump's attempts to undermine Fed independence. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales about the US dollar implications going forward. Derek also discusses BoJ policy, Japan politics and the yen and whether the political uncertainty emerging in France will impact the euro.
2025-08-2917 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s next for the USD after Jackson Hole? Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market fallout from Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole. Could diverging policies between the Fed and other major central banks drive the USD even lower?"
2025-08-2208 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow is the changing outlook for BoJ and Fed policies impacting USD/JPY?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how the latest economic data is shaping the outlook for BoJ and Fed policies. Will widening policy divergence put greater pressure on USD/JPY as we head into the autumn?
2025-08-1807 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow is the changing outlook for BoJ and Fed policies impacting USD/JPY?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how the latest economic data is shaping the outlook for BoJ and Fed policies. Will widening policy divergence put greater pressure on USD/JPY as we head into the autumn?
2025-08-1507 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUSD downside risk increasingThe dollar weakened again this week, though more modestly - slipping less than 1%. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, joins James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales to unpack the key themes likely to shape FX moves in the weeks ahead. They discuss the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed Board of Governors - what it could mean for Chair Powell’s position in 2026—and assess the impact of the latest tariffs, which came into effect on Thursday. With US CPI data due on 12 August, they explore what to watch for and how it cou...
2025-08-0815 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAt an inflection point or another macro head fake? (Podcast Edition)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downside in jobs data came as a surprise to markets but was not a shock to our macro team which has been flagging how labor market data has been overstating...
2025-08-0516 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWeak jobs data a gamechangerThe release of a much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report has triggered significant market movements, as investors increasingly position for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Jack Greenslade from FX Corporate Sales about the report’s implications for the U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy. Derek also explores how the softer labour data could influence U.S. tariff decisions and what this means for the Swiss franc.
2025-08-0111 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill the BoJ policy update provide trigger for a JPY rebound?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of Corporate Sales for the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland (FX), to explore the outlook for the Japanese yen following Japan’s Upper House election and the recent US-Japan trade agreement. With a potential policy shift on the horizon, could a hawkish Bank of Japan stance in the coming week give the JPY a boost?
2025-07-2508 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJapan, Politics and the Yen - Is It All Priced?After another week of Trump-driven financial market volatility, attention now turns to Japanese politics. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, sits down with Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales, to discuss Sunday’s upper house election and its potential implications for the markets next week and beyond.
Upper house elections in Japan are typically low-impact events, but this one feels different. Could we see renewed JGB volatility? What might the results mean for USD/JPY, and is there a risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade?
Derek and Ch...
2025-07-1821 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastMid-Month Update: Balancing Tariff News vs Recent Data TrendsGeorge Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through a series of topics as a mid-month update: from tariffs, to the recent softer than expected inflation report, the optically better than expected NFP jobs data, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, George and the team pushed back their next Fed cut to September from July where they still believe that neutral rates are closer to the low 3% levels versus the current low 4% levels. They are also viewing the long-end as offering value in the midst of higher global rates.
2025-07-1518 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow has the FX market responded to Trump’s latest tariff announcements?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market's reaction to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.. They also explore whether rising political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the Upper House elections is playing a role in the yen’s recent weakness.
2025-07-1111 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe BoJ, yen and Trump’s tariff announcementAs markets await President Trump’s announcement on updated reciprocal tariff rates following months of negotiations, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Julie Ellert, Head of FX FraBelux Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for FX markets.
With inflation in Japan remaining elevated, they also explore how the Bank of Japan might respond in the months ahead. Could another rate hike be on the horizon? With inflation coming in higher than expected, there’s a risk the BoJ could fall behind the curve.
2025-07-0411 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJune 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Edition)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped out, arguing for the Fed to cut soon.
That said, George acknowledges everything has to go "...
2025-07-0214 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat's next for the USD after Middle East tensions ease?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, unpack the factors behind the sharp reversal in the US dollar after it hit new year-to-date lows. Is this just a pause in the downward trend, or the start of a broader recovery? Tune in for insights on what could shape the USD’s direction in the week ahead. Share your thoughts in the comment section.
2025-06-2709 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUSD downside risks persist in most Middle East scenariosFollowing some tentative signs of easing risks in the Middle East, which have helped weaken the US dollar, Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland, and Swiss FX Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for the US dollar and the financial markets. Derek also highlights some key takeaways from the numerous central bank meetings this week, including the Fed and the BoJ.
2025-06-2011 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJune 2025 FOMC Preview Podcast Edition - It’s never “too late” to pivot (so long as it’s to the dovish side)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings.
2025-06-1815 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill Middle East tensions trigger a reversal of the weakening USD trend?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent USD sell-off ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Will the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran help to support the USD after hitting year-to-date lows?
2025-06-1308 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastMalaysia's strong investment to support ringgitLloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for Malaysia's economy and the ringgit amid lingering global trade uncertainties. Lloyd also highlights that Malaysia's economy is in a domestic-led investment upcycle, which could help cushion the impact of trade headwinds and support ringgit stability.
2025-06-1208 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat's next for the USD after the latest NFP report?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss FX market developments over the past week. It has been a mixed week for the USD but will the weakening trend remain place?
2025-06-0608 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe Great Whiplash (Podcast Version)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest developments in US macro and markets which was covered in the last monthly titled "The Great Whiplash". George highlights that the constant policy shifts, especially on the trade front, has led to tight trading ranges - even as we sit at local highs in both stocks and rates. Given the constant news flow challenges, and that it pays to be tactical in this environment, George previews the upcoming NFP jobs report and what to expect and what it will mean for Fed policy options ahead.
2025-06-0313 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS dollar confidence to remain an issueFollowing another week of debate over President Trump’s trade tariffs, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, speaks with Shan Husain from FI FX Sales about the latest developments. They discuss legal uncertainties around reciprocal tariffs, the impact on the US dollar, and concerns about confidence in US assets. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s ECB meeting and growing sentiment in Europe that the euro could strengthen its role as a global reserve currency amid doubts about the dollar.
2025-05-3013 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastIndonesia policy and FX outlookLloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah following the 2 April US Liberation Day and last week’s Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Lloyd also highlights that Indonesia's economy had slowed even before US Liberation Day and the BI could cut the policy rate one more time in Q3, possibly in September.
2025-05-2810 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s behind the latest USD sell-off?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Abdul-Ahad, Currency Analyst, to discuss what has triggered renewed selling over the past week. Will the loss of confidence in the US and Japanese debt markets have a spillover impact on the FX market?
2025-05-2309 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastForeign investors still buying UST bondsDerek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also discuss the USD/Asia moves and how investors’ behaviours in regard to hedging USD exposures may be changing.
2025-05-1615 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastIs a USD recovery underway?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week and helping to lift the USD.
Will USD gains on the back on recent trade deal optimism and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates prove sustainable?
2025-05-0910 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastMay 2025 FOMC Preview: Inaction is action (and a potential policy mistake)…George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas previews our expectation ahead of the May FOMC meeting. We believe that the Fed will skip for a third time in the cycle and have a difficult time threading the needle and making everyone happy at this upcoming meeting. If the Fed elects to stay on the sidelines to wait for data to confirm that further rate cuts are needed, they might realize that they will come too late. If the Fed messaging comes across as more hawkish than markets would like, it could result in risk assets to continue...
2025-05-0609 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUSD Sell-off Intensifies Despite Strong US Jobs DataAfter a stronger than expected US jobs report and increased speculation of an easing in trade tensions, Derek Halpenny. Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales to discuss financial market conditions and the renewed depreciation of the US dollar. Derek also looks to next week and discusses the FOMC and BoE meetings and the fallout for the yen following the BoJ meeting this week.
2025-05-0209 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAn April to Remember…George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recaps key market themes that have played out in markets during the epic month of April, drawing parallels to other historical market events. Additionally, he touches on fears of dedollarization, weak soft data, the question of when this will finally filter through to the hard data, and how the Fed could deal with slowing economic growth. To cap it off he notes what else to look out for as month end approaches with key labor data, macro data, and corporate earnings continue to roll in and the risks to markets.
2025-04-2914 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s next for USD/JPY after it briefly dropped below 140.00?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the volatile price action for USD/JPY over the past week.
Will the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting derail the current downward trend for USD/JPY?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-04-2507 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastStemming the US crisis of confidenceThis week’s Global Markets podcast takes place against a backdrop of financial market turmoil with signs of a building crisis of confidence in US assets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales about what needs to happen to halt the slide in confidence. There are certain actions that would help but none seems that likely. Derek and Chris also discuss the prospects for JPY and the BoJ’s stance in the midst of increased financial market turmoil.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-04-1123 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastTrump’s Tariff-palooza: Macro & Market Impacts…George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest tariff developments and potential implications for the economy and markets. As a reminder, a palooza is informally viewed as a large frenzied event, thus it’s apt to call this latest version a “tariff-palooza” as markets got jolted by the larger than expected and broad-based announcement on “Liberation Day.” Although the approach the administration has taken a tougher stance on fiscal spending and trade negotiations, it is directionally in line with our 2025 Outlook, given all the uncertainty that this latest tariff rounds have had on both inves...
2025-04-0821 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat has been the impact of Trump’s tariff war in the FX market?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade of UK, Ireland, Switzerland and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss the impact of President Trump’s tariff plans for the FX market. Will an escalating trade war lead to further strength for safe haven currencies such as the yen?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-04-0412 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastReciprocal tariff plans are not fully pricedThe US dollar is weaker this week against most G10 currencies ahead of the key reciprocal tariff announcement on 2nd April. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain Institutional FX Sales EMEA about how the markets are positioned ahead of the announcement and what we can expect in the days and weeks following. Derek suggests financial markets are possibly overly optimistic about the potential impact.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-03-2813 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat are the main takeaways for the FX market from this week's central bank updates?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the latest policy updates from the Fed, BoJ, BoE. How is heightened uncertainty related to President Trump's policy plans impacting central bank communication?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-03-2107 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastMarch 2025 FOMC Preview: Not in a hurry to get worriedGeorge Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.
2025-03-1811 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastEventful week ahead with BoJ key for JPY directionThe dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of JPY direction.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-03-1412 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAll change in the FX market as US exceptionalism is challenged?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-03-0709 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastChina NPC 2025: Proactive policies support a positive transition of growth modelWith China's annual Two Sessions meetings underway, Dr. Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research for Asia, delves into the key takeaways from the Work Report by the National People's Congress for 2025.
2025-03-0715 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS Macro Insights February 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Version)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.
2025-03-0409 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJPY upside risksThe US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump’s more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ah...
2025-02-2813 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat's been driving the stronger JPY and will it continue?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales, discuss why USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Will the current trends of a stronger JPY and weaker USD continue?
2025-02-2108 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThoughts from Asia & Europe on what has been contributing to a weaker USDLee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London, and Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, discuss what has been driving FX markets in Asia and Europe at the start of this year. Topics of discussion include: i) the responses from Asia and Europe to Trump’s tariff policies and ii) the upcoming German elections and potential for Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-02-1421 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS Macro Insights January 2025 CPI Preview Podcast VersionGeorge Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week’s labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.
2025-02-1208 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastTrump tariff delay triggers correction lower for USD?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how President Trump’s decisions on trade policy have been impacting the FX market this week. Did the BoE’s latest policy update change their outlook for the pound?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-02-0709 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastRisk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus) Podcast VersionGeorge Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.
2025-02-0410 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastTrade tariffs – will he, won’t he? USD swings aheadThis week draws to a close with a 25% trade tariff set to be implemented on Canada and Mexico. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade, UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Sales, about the FX implications of Trump going ahead with these tariffs over the weekend. Derek also covers the FX implications of the Fed and ECB meeting this week, looks ahead to the BoE policy meeting next week and discusses the strong performance of the yen and what lies ahead.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-01-3114 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJanuary 2025 FOMC Preview: Defiantly Data Dependent?George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, discusses our outlook for the Fed’s first meeting of 2025, in which we believe the Committee should be “defiantly data dependent” and keep rates on hold. We focus on our base case that Powell will deliver a neutral message, but also discuss risks around that view. We conclude with our expectations for how markets will trade in the coming weeks.
2025-01-2809 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s next for the USD after setback at start of Trump’s second term?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and James Roulston, FX Institutional Sales, discuss the outlook for the USD at the start of Trump’s second term. Will the Fed’s policy update trigger another leg lower for the USD in the week ahead?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
2025-01-2408 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWill Trump’s inauguration fuel renewed USD buying ahead of anticipated BoJ rate hike?At the end of the week Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales sits down with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities to discuss the key events in the week ahead and how the FX markets may respond. There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under Executive Order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains. How much further can the dollar advance from here? Are the Gilt market concerns overblown? And will the BoJ deliver another hike as it has suggested this week is likely?
2025-01-1721 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat are the spill-overs into the FX market from the worsening bond market sell-off?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been behind in the sharp sell-off in global bond markets over the past week. How has the FX market been impacted by rising government borrowing costs?
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2025-01-1011 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS 2025 Outlook: A Balancing Act (Podcast Version)George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025. We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.
2025-01-0720 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS Dollar Projections Post-FOMC: Discussions on Trump Policies, BoJ and the outlook for the YenIn this final MUFG Global Markets Week Ahead podcast of 2024, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate Sales about the US dollar following the final FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday and about the outlook for the dollar as we approach the beginning of 2025. Derek and Jack cover Trump policies, his ability to trigger US dollar depreciation, the BoJ and the outlook for the yen.
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2024-12-2014 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAsia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #4: How will ASEAN FX perform?Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the growth and FX implications on ASEAN economies in 2025 under a second Trump presidency.
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2024-12-1608 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAsia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #3: Outperformers and Vietnam as microcosm of China+1Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia discusses two key themes, the possible outperformers, PHP and INR, and also how Trump 2.0 will likely focus on the Chinese-linked supply chain this time around and thereby impact Vietnam.
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2024-12-1611 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAsia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #2: The levers to stimulate China's growthLin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses the status of the Chinese economy, the levers to stimulate China's growth in 2025, and implication of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese economy, USD/CNY pair and its ripple effects on Asian peers.
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2024-12-1610 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastAsia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #1: Navigating Asia FX markets in Trump 2.0Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses main themes governing Asia FX movements and the Asia FX outlook for 2025. Lin highlights the possible impact of Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Chinese and Asian economies and Asia FX, as well as implications of Fed's easing cycle and semiconductor cycle.
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2024-12-1610 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhy has the USD strengthened even as the Fed is set to cut rates again next week?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been driving a stronger USD over the past week.
Will the policy pledge from China to provide more support for growth help dampen USD strength?
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2024-12-1308 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastFed to cut. Will the BoJ hike and take the yen stronger?After the release of the US jobs report for November Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of the jobs report on Fed rate cut expectations and the US dollar. Derek and Chris also discuss the upcoming ECB meeting next week and the impact of BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments this week in a Nikkei interview. Was this interview the BoJ prepping the market for a December rate hike and what would that mean for the yen?
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2024-12-0622 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s behind the correction lower for USD/JPY?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving USD/JPY lower over the past week. Will the BoJ hike rates before the end of this year?
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2024-11-2909 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastFrom the lame duck session to a new administration, how to think about rates, macro and the Fed aheadThis week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of the key topics and our views from the November monthly report, US Macro2Markets Outlook: Markets feel adrift post-election, now what?
George reiterates the house call that the Fed will likely deliver another 25bp cut for 2024, bringing the total to 100bps of cuts for this past year. We think since this is the last 25bp remaining cut, that was part of the September SEP forecast, why skip it. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes were dovish and flagged that market functioning is now...
2024-11-2719 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS dollar strengthens amid geopolitical risksThe US dollar has had another move stronger this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Corporate Sales, about the implications for the FX markets from the increased geopolitical risks this week related to Ukraine. Derek and Jack also discuss the implications of Trump’s cabinet picks and a possible escalation of political risks in France ahead of an S&P ratings announcement on 29th November.
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2024-11-2213 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastPost Election Thoughts: Has the Trump Trade run its course?This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the market implications heading into and out of the recent US presidential election. In George’s view there are a couple schools of thoughts forming on how markets participants are looking to further position for a 2nd Trump administration, one that also has Republicans in power in the Congress as well. In one camp, and the one that has worked thus far, has been the playbook from the 2016 Trump 1.0 election, where financials and the dollar rallied but rates sold off. George suggests that there is more than on...
2024-11-2014 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastHow hard will Asian currencies be hit by the fallout from a second Trump presidency?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London talks to Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, about the implications for Asian currencies from a second Trump Presidency.
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2024-11-1519 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s next for the USD after the US election?Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the US election. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications for the USD from a second Trump presidency.
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2024-11-0806 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUS election impact on ASEANLloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the potential growth, monetary policy, and FX implications on ASEAN from a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory. Lloyd also highlights which ASEAN economies and currencies would underperform in an adverse Trump scenario, where 60% US tariff is imposed on all Chinese imports while a 10% blanket tariff is imposed on US imports from all other countries.
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2024-11-0510 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe US dollar into and beyond the US electionsFollowing the release of the US jobs report Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales about the potential implications ahead of the FOMC next week. Derek also outlines the FX implications on a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory and highlights some polling analysis from NBC News. The discussion also covers the GBP impact following the UK budget this week.
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2024-11-0113 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat's next for the JPY after Japan steps up intervention threat?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the JPY has weakened sharply this month. How are the political risks impacting JPY performance?
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2024-10-2507 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastRBI and Indian Rupee amidst US Election RisksMichael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind RBI monetary policy decision and INR in the context of US Elections and what that could mean for the Dollar and Fed policy.
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2024-10-2410 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastPricing in a higher Trump risk premium in the USDLee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the strong USD rebound this month and if the USD continue to strengthen ahead of the US election?
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2024-10-1809 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastUSD buying momentum may fade from hereUSD/JPY continues it's advance toward the 150-level and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the prospects for USD/JPY in the context of a 60bp jump in 2yr US yields, the upcoming election in both Japan and the US, and the argument that the buying momentum may start to fade at these levels. Derek also looks ahead to the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and possible implications for the euro.
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2024-10-1109 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJumbo strong jobs report derails the future of jumbo rate cuts, for now…This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and it will likely result in the Fed cutting at a slower pace. We are now expecting the Fed to deliver a 25bp cuts going forward and tweaked on our longer term rates forecasts.
2024-10-0814 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat's behind the abrupt reversal of the weaker USD trend?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst and Seiko, Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has staged a strong rebound over the past week. Recent developments add to their caution in forecasting further USD downside ahead of the US election.
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2024-10-0407 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastJapan’s political ‘changing of the guard’ and JPY implicationsFollowing the LDP leadership election in Japan today Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what the implications for BoJ monetary policy and the yen after the victory for Shigeru Ishiba. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s US employment report and the Fed and FX implications.
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2024-09-2713 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat is the fall out for the USD & JPY after Fed decides to start easing with a bang?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s central bank policy updates. Will the USD continue to weaken after the Fed delivers a larger 50bps rate cut?
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2024-09-2010 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe 1st cut in the cycle, 50bp or bust?On the back of a recently published FOMC preview report, this week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through what to expect at the September FOMC meeting and the rationale for why our house view is calling for the first cut to be 50bps. George also explores how this easing cycle may progress.
In George’s view, this is a historical event because this easing cycle is being launched as a preemptive move to avoid further cooling in the labor market and economy. In the last few easing cycles, the Fed has lo...
2024-09-1813 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastWhat’s next for the USD ahead of the Fed’s pivotal policy meeting?Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss how the Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates is likely to impact the USD in the week ahead. Will the Fed play catch up with other major central banks and cut rates more quickly?
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2024-09-1310 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastFX Outlook and market pricing for the scale of rate cuts aheadAs the summer lull for the financial markets comes to an end, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales about what lies ahead for the major currencies following some key developments in August and ahead of key central bank meetings. Are the financial markets correctly priced for the central bank easing cycles that have already started for some (ECB & BoE for example) and is set to commence for the Fed in September.
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2024-08-3011 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe ghosts of August 2007 and the time has come for rate cuts post Jackson holeThis week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the last major macro event that happened this past Friday, the Fed’s Jackson hole symposium. Specifically chair Powell’s opening speech acknowledged that the labor market cooling is unmistakably happening now (and in reality has been in our view for many quarters) and thus the Fed has pivoted to worrying about the jobs picture. As a result, chair Powell said the “time has come” to start adjusting policy rates lower (likely at the September meeting) to help combat further labor market weakness. Given that many of the cond...
2024-08-2709 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastIndonesia Policy and FX outlookLloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week on Indonesia's monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the outlook for the Indonesian Rupiah, following Bank Indonesia's policy meeting and the annual Jackson Hole symposium last week.
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2024-08-2707 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastPowell suggests growing labour market concernsThis week, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses with Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of JC FX Sales, the initial market reaction to the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell. The speech highlighted a new Fed focus on downside labour market risks. After this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago Derek provides an update on US politics and how the FX market could be impacted.
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2024-08-2312 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThe status of Chinese economy, potential policies and the USDCNYLin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discusses USD/CNY pair’s recent movement and the forecast for next 12 months, the status of Chinese economy, and the potential policy support.
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2024-08-2311 minThe MUFG Global Markets PodcastThoughts ahead of Jackson Hole and into early SeptemberThis week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, puts into context how risk market preferences and a buy the dip mentality has likely led to the bounce from oversold conditions that were present at the early start of August around the adjustments of positioning. George remains cautious and expects more episodic vol events over the end of summer into early Fall. Meanwhile, George highlights what to watch and what may change chair Powell’s message at Jackson Hole with the jobs data being the driver.
2024-08-2108 min