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Markets Update With TreasuryONE
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Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Currency fluctuations have resurged due to geopolitical factors influencing dollar speculation
Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE, chats to The Money Show host, Bruce Whitfield about currency instability that has resurfaced due to geopolitical factors contributing to speculation on the dollar.
2024-04-17
06 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Has dollar dominance finally cracked?
Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE, Andre Cilliers tries to explain why the United States of America's dollar is starting to weaken and the factors contributing to the dollar downfall.
2024-03-12
09 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
What is Currency Manipulation? Kaya FM Part 2
TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist, Andre Cilliers, joins the breakfast show on Kaya FM to discuss currency manipulation. #currencymarkets #financialnews #currencymanipulation
2023-11-23
10 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
"Currency Manipulation" - Power Talk Part 2
TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist Andre Cilliers joins the team on Power Talk to discuss currency manipulation. #CurrencyManipulation #currencymarkets #currencynews
2023-11-23
07 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
"Currency Manipulation" - Power Talk Part 1
TreasuryONE Currency Risk Strategist Andre Cilliers joins the team on Power Talk to discuss currency manipulation. #CurrencyManipulation #currencymarkets #currencynews
2023-11-23
16 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Impact of additional public holiday on SA economy
President Cyril Ramaphosa made the surprise declaration of a special public holiday in honour of the Springboks win of the Rugby World Cup in France. TreasuryONE currency strategist Andre Cilliers considers the impact of the additional public holiday on the South African economy.
2023-11-03
04 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
WEBINAR: Navigating the Global Market Landscape Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Shifts
With the recent outbreak of hostilities between Hamas and Israel, we can possibly see the global market landscape shift. Coupled with that, as US treasury yields continue to climb, many are wondering when the Federal Reserve will consider pausing or adjusting its monetary policy. In an ever-changing world, understanding what comes next is crucial. TreasuryONE hosted a webinar with ETM Analytics, where we explored emerging trends, geopolitical developments, and economic trends to provide you with valuable insights into the evolving global landscape. 👉 The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts: Analysing the recent hostilities between Hamas and Israel, and their potential effects on...
2023-10-19
42 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Forex trading in South Africa
TreasuryONE's Currency Strategist, Andre Cilliers, talks to the hosts of Hot 1027 fm Business on Forex trading. Forex trading volumes in South Africa are projected to be over $19.1 billion.
2023-09-27
09 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Fireside chat with TreasuryONE & The Finance Ghost
Wichard Cilliers, Andre Botha, and The Finance Ghost dives into some of the most pressing topics surrounding currency and financial news. #TreasuryONE #financialmarkets #currencynews
2023-08-17
50 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
"Big Mac index" - TreasuryONE Currency Strategist Andre Cilliers on The Money Show
Big Mac indexAndre Cilliers, Director and Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE on the Big Mac Index revealing that the ZAR is undervalued by 50%. #CurrencyMarkets #BigMacIndex #TreasuryONE #702 #TheMoneyShow
2023-08-07
07 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand is 50% undervalued, Big Mac index shows
The latest update to The Economist's Big Mac index shows that - theoretically - the rand should be trading at R8.94/dollar. The index compares the prices of McDonald's Big Mac hamburgers in different countries to determine whether currencies are overvalued, or too cheap. In this interview with KAYA FM, Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at at TreasuryONE gives his insight. #KayaFM #TreasuryONE #BigMacIndex
2023-08-07
08 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Andre Cilliers on Kaya Biz FM
Andre Cilliers, director and currency strategist at TreasuryONE gives insight on the performance of the rand #KayaBizzFM #TreasuryONE #AndreCilliers #ZAR #CurrencyMarkets
2023-05-16
11 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
The Dedollarisation Debate
A thought-provoking discussion about the concept of dedollarisation. In this episode, we explore the potential signs of a shifting global landscape away from the dominance of the US dollar and the implications it may have on international trade, currencies, and economic stability. #Dedollarisation #FinancialMarkets #GlobalEconomy #TreasuryONE #ETMAnalytics
2023-05-15
12 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Risk sentiment remains unfavorable for EMs
Rand Update The rand is trading back towards the middle of our wider range, currently floating just above the R18.30 handle. Risk sentiment remains unfavorable for EMs, with most currencies unmoved on a lackluster day. Focus is shifting towards the US inflation print on Wednesday, with inflation expected to ease to 5.5% in April. That said, the dollar is holding its ground against the euro and the pound. Commodity Sector rebounds The recent turmoil in the commodity space has seen some reprieve today, with oil prices up over 1.5% on the back...
2023-05-08
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
US non-Farm Payrolls hurt EM
US non-Farm Payrolls hurt EM US non-farm payrolls surprised on the top side once again, coming out at 253,000 versus the 185,000 expected. Unemployment in the US fell to 3.4% in April from 3.5% a month prior. Average hourly earnings are also up. Treasury yields are also rising as interest rates could stay higher longer. We have seen the US dollar on the front foot, with the greenback trading below the 1.1000 level after the release of the number, and this has caused the Rand to weaken to within sight of the R18.5000 level. We have seen other EMs reversing some of...
2023-05-05
02 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Mixed signals and uncertainty give Rand the jitters
With renewed questions about the banking sector in the US and risk-off regarding the recession talk in the market, we have seen the market unsure of what can happen next, and the market has been trading erratically on the back of that. Just how erratic the market has been, we have seen the US dollar almost touching the 1.1100 level against the Euro, but the Rand and some other emerging markets have been under pressure. We have also seen Gold on the front foot. Generally, in a risk-off rally, we see Gold and the US dollar move in tandem, but...
2023-04-26
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dominance of US dollar
Andre Cilliers on Kaya FM 95.9 - Breakfast
2023-04-25
07 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Market trading sideways ahead of busy week
Market trading sideways ahead of busy week Currency markets traded sideways today with the data-filled week ahead of us. The Euro managed to breach the 1.10 level while the other majors are relatively flat for the day. The rand continues with the current range between R18.00 and R18.50, as local bond inflows remain lackluster. The US data could perhaps provide a pivotal view of future Fed Hikes, but the market is confident that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 25bps next week. Commodity sector under pressure Across the board...
2023-04-24
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand gains are still stubborn, and dollar data is still important
Rand gains are still stubborn, and dollar data is still important The rand is still struggling to manage a break below R18.00. Poor local infrastructure and concerns over South Africa’s “Russian Ties” keep investors from flooding into our already high-yielding bonds. This week’s higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed talking a big game has led to economists excepting another 2 x 25bps by the MPC this year to accommodate inflation and the Fed hiking cycle. That said, we close the week slightly softer on the day, around R18.10, after another attempt at the R18.00 big figure yesterda...
2023-04-21
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand testing the bottom of the range
Rand testing the bottom of the range For the third time in a week, the Rand is testing the bottom of the R18.00/50 range, as the Rand enjoyed the fact that the US dollar slipped a little today. The question now becomes whether the Rand is forming a base here or has enough momentum to break below R18.00. With little in the way of significant data left for the week, we suspect that the Rand could struggle to make a meaningful break of R18.00. We did see some weaker-than-expected employment numbers out of the US...
2023-04-20
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Global inflation is still sticky
Global inflation is still sticky Although some countries have seen inflation starting to turn downward, as we can see from the chart, the bulk of the countries' worldwide inflation is still in an uptrend (blue line), with the inflation only down slightly, depicted by the white line. Our local inflation came out higher than expected today, and the UK's inflation printed above 10% for the 7th month in a row. Inflation seems to be like toothpaste, easy to get out but a little tricky to put back in. The higher inflation is continuing to place pressure on global...
2023-04-19
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar gains fade, EM's stronger for the day
Dollar gains fade, EM's stronger for the day Recent dollar gains have faded today after Fed speakers' hawkish rhetoric has been the markets' main driver in the past few days. The dollar has lost ground across the board, and markets will likely turn their attention back to US Data out in the coming weeks. The rand has benefited from the softer dollar and improving risk sentiment, grinding out a 0.7% gain for the day and hovering below R18.20. Tomorrow's local CPI print is expected to show that inflation has eased to 6.9% year-on-year in March versus the 7% in February...
2023-04-18
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Fed speakers not keen to pause on interest rate hikes
Fed speakers not keen to pause on interest rate hikes The dollar has been on the front foot for the day as Fed speakers are still talking about a big hiking cycle game. The market is fully pricing a 25bps hike at the May meeting and is only slightly pricing in more hikes after that. The 2Y treasury yields have rallied around 30bps in the last two days. The problem the Fed sits with is that the whole yield curve is almost now inverted, and given this shape, there is stubbornness in pricing a “Fed pivot.” Continuing to r...
2023-04-17
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar losing more ground
Dollar losing more ground US PPI for March came out below expectations, increasing 2.7% vs. the 3% expectation. Apart from that, Jobless claims increased for a third week in a row, perhaps indicating that the labour market is not as solid as the Non-Farm Payroll number indicated on Friday. The data followed a week where CPI also printed below expectations, and the Fed warned that they are weary of the stability in the financial sector, causing the Euro to bounce to 1.1050 and the pound to 1.2530. The dollar index is struggling and dipped further, currently quoted at 100.95. We have seen...
2023-04-13
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
US inflation
US inflation The inflation in the US was released, and now the question is will the Fed continue to hike interest rates? Headline inflation came out at 5% which is below the expected 5.2% in March. However, the Fed is keeping a firm eye on core inflation and services inflation. Looking at the graph one can see this remains stubbornly sticky. The market is still largely pricing in a 25bps hike at the May FOMC meeting. This will be the last inflation data print before the meeting. Rand reaction The local currency...
2023-04-12
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand recovers after long weekend
Rand recovers after long weekend After Friday's US non-farm payroll number and a lack of liquidity in the market yesterday, we saw the Rand touching the R18.50 level. We expected the Rand to recover slightly as liquidity returned to the local market. That turned out to be the case as we saw the US dollar slipping against the Euro, and that bodes well for the Rand as the Rand clawed back some of its recent losses and is currently trading at R18.30 against the US dollar. The Rand has also lost significant ground against the Euro and...
2023-04-11
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Range-bound Rand
Range-bound Rand The rand has been looking comfortable between the R17.80 to R18.00 range, with the market moving in a very narrow range for most of the day. Late afternoon we have seen an increase in market movement, with the rand testing the R18.00 handle. The Greenback lost more ground against other majors early today but is grinding back late afternoon as markets perhaps look to close off positions ahead of the long weekend. ISM Non-Manufacturing data also came in below expectations after Manufacturing PMI dropped the ball on Monday. Labour market...
2023-04-05
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Weaker than expected U.S. data
Weaker than expected U.S. data U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting that the labour market was cooling. Along with the PMI number miss yesterday, data out of the U.S. is slipping a little. We will have to wait until Friday and the U.S. non-farm payroll number before we can see the state of a trend should the non-farm numbers disappoint. The U.S. dollar slipped further against the Euro as the pair traded above 1.0950 after starting the day below 1.0900...
2023-04-04
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
US PMI data lower
US PMI data lower Markets have been consolidating for most of the day, with the dollar creeping back losses it suffered. ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to come in at 47.5, but the number came in lower at 46.3 as the US data continued to print lower. The rand tested R17.95 earlier as the dollar started to find some traction, but since the release of the ISM data, we have traded back to the R17.80 level. There is still some event risk later this week with payroll data in the US on Friday, Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, and Fed...
2023-04-03
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
US inflation continues to fall
US inflation continues to fall Consumer prices rose less than expected in February, the latest monthly update of the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed, the core PCE deflator. The annual rise in core PCE prices edged down to 4.6% from 4.7% in Jan, matching the lowest it has been since the end of 2021. Looking at the chart, CPI, PPI and PCE are trending down, although the pace lower is a bit slower than it was on the way up. This release can possibly prompt the Fed to stop its hiking cycle as the trend...
2023-03-31
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Slightly risk-on
Slightly risk-on The dollar has been trading under pressure for the day, with most currencies posting gains. The markets are starting to price rate cuts in the US more aggressively. This can possibly cause the US treasury yield curve continues to remain deeply inverted, an early indication that a US recession is looming. The market expects the Fed to not hike rates again and to start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2023. If the current liquidity crunch in the banking sector re-accelerates again and spills over it could spell danger. The rand and other emerging...
2023-03-29
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand remains range-bound
Rand remains range-bound We previously mentioned that markets are calmer with stability in the financial system helping volatility to ease, but we have yet to see any sustained reprieve for the rand. Although the rand is 0.5% stronger for the day, we basically just regained ground lost yesterday. Markets are continuously focusing on US data and Fed speakers, but local issues have played their part in the rand’s performance over the past two months. Dollar still hovering softer against its peers The Dollar continues to trade softer against the likes of...
2023-03-28
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Markets are calmer
Markets are calmer Should we say the calm after the storm, with markets calmer today than it was for most of last week? The fact that no new banks came under pressure over the weekend has helped the market ally fears from last week. US Treasury yields rose amid reduced demand for the safety of government paper as tensions in the banking sector eased. This has caused safe-haven assets like Gold and the US dollar to have eased a little today. The US dollar is trading at 1.0780 against the Euro, and Gold is trading at $1,950 per ounce...
2023-03-27
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Markets treading water
Markets treading water Markets are fairly calm this morning with bets on a pause in rate hikes by the Fed offsetting some of the concerns over the stability of the financial system and a possible US recession. US Treasury yields are lower at the short end of the curve with the 2-year quoted at 3.79%. The Dollar closed firmer against the Euro last night but lost ground against the Pound and Yen. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bps and 50bps respectively yesterday, in line with market expectations. Risk sentiment remains positive...
2023-03-24
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
A sense of calmness after the storm
A sense of calmness after the storm Markets have reacted positively after what people describe as a dovish hike by the FOMC last night, and we have seen the Volatility Index drop nearly 7% on the day. Equity markets and EM’s are finding life easier since, and we saw the rand test below R18.10 earlier today. This level has proven difficult for the rand to sustain a break below at the past two attempts and seems to be the same this time around. Local concerns are still priced into the rand as a risk premium and could pr...
2023-03-23
00 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand rallies before FOMC
Rand rallies before FOMC Hours before the FOMC meeting, we have seen the US dollar trading near the 1.0800 level against the Euro. Whether this level will hold after the meeting is another matter. We expect the FOMC to hike interest rates by 25 basis points, citing the latest banking crisis in the US as one of the reasons why the FOMC will not go 50 basis points. The market will pay more attention to the forward guidance by the FOMC as the market will look to any news on a Fed pivot. Should the...
2023-03-22
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar index dips further
The dollar has treaded water during the day, and we see the euro and pound up 0.54% for the day, while the Yen is slightly up as well. The impact of this has seen the dollar index dip further, quoted at 103.37. The 2yr Treasury Yield is slightly up this afternoon at 3.92%, but price action has been more stable today following the buyout of Swiss Bank Credit Suisse. Gold has been as volatile over the past week, with the price topping $2,000 earlier today before sentiment improved and the metal dropped to $1,970. US equities have opened up more positive than negative following...
2023-03-20
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Brent Crude falls further, while gold is up
We have seen markets trading sideways with a slight sense of risk-off sentiment today after global banks concerns have taken over this week. The bailout of banks in Switzerland and the US has dominated headlines, while the ECB stuck to their 50bps hike yesterday as inflation remains a concern in the eurozone. Markets have calmed down following the bailouts and now fully focus on next week’s FOMC meeting, where we will see if the downward trending inflation and financial market instability this week will push the Fed to a more Dovish outlook. For now, the dollar is trading ra...
2023-03-17
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
ECB hikes by 50 basis points
ECB hikes by 50 basis points The ECB kept its promise by hiking 50 basis points despite the current market turmoil surrounding Credit Suisse, and the ECB warned that some banks might come under pressure with increased interest rate hikes. The ECB stated that inflation would be higher for longer. Thus, they had no option other than hiking rates. We have seen the US dollar trading slightly stronger after the press conference indicating that the market believes the Fed can also hike rates next week at its FOMC meeting. Despite the ECB announcement, the Rand had a somewhat uneventful...
2023-03-16
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Market Mayhem
Market Mayhem Equities markets are under pressure, with markets very alarmed about the possibility of a default by Swiss Bank Credit Suisse. Looking at equity markets, we see all major USD indexes trading well down, and therefore it is safe to say EM’s will not perform well either. The rand has lost 1.4% and testing the R18.40 level at the moment. This is far from the worst-performing currency for the day, with the euro taking severe punishment and losing 1.6% as the possibility of a contagion effect by Credit Suisse on the Eurozone is being digested. On the ba...
2023-03-15
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
CPI gives Fed options
US inflation came in bang on the expected 6% y-on-y for Feb. US core inflation is also on the number at 5.5%. This gives the Fed the option to do no hikes rates at its next meeting next week, given the state of the banking system in the US. We have seen that the Us dollar is trading above 1.0700, which suggests that the market has moved out of US dollars and into Gold which is another safe haven. The Rand has enjoyed the move out of the US dollar and is currently trading at R18.1100, with its sights firmly set on...
2023-03-14
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
SVB collapse shatters Treasury Yields
SVB collapse shatters Treasury Yields The main topic today has been the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with Treasury Yields and Equity Markets both finding life difficult. The 2yr US Treasury Yield fell even further and dipped below 4% earlier today, while the 10yr yield is on 3.45%. This is important to understand because the 2yr yield has lost 100bps since Friday afternoon, with markets now heavily concerned about the contagion effect it will have on the banking sector. The market has started to price in the chance of zero hikes by the FOMC next week, while the chance...
2023-03-13
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Unemployment rate the cat in the bag?
Unemployment rate the cat in the bag? The dollar has been under pressure after the payroll data were released, with the unemployment rate likely the guilty party for it. Yesterday we saw Jobless claims increased during February, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% for the February print. This places the FOMC betting on a resilient labour market under debate, and the focus will firmly shift to the CPI print next week. Rand recovers, still down for the week After opening close to the R18.10 handle, we saw the local currency...
2023-03-10
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Market taking a breather
Market taking a breather The market is caught between the testimony from Fed Chair Powell the previous two days and the US non-farm payroll numbers that will be released tomorrow. Unsurprisingly, most of the market drifted sideways today, with the Rand being case in point with the currency trading within a 10-cent range and currently finding itself at R18.60. We did see the US jobless claims coming in worse than expected (215k vs. 195k), which is a downturn from the last good data that we have seen out of the US. The US dollar has lost a...
2023-03-09
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand in a vulnerable space
The rand managed to close below the major technical level of R18.55 yesterday but lost ground during the day to test a new multiple-year high of R18.70 earlier today. Since then, we have seen some recovery on the local currency, whereby it drifted back below R18.60. The rand is treading water in a vulnerable area, with Friday’s Non-Farm payrolls and next week’s CPI numbers likely the next pivotable key for the dollar to push further. We have seen more of the same during the day, with a stronger dollar being the main them...
2023-03-08
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
GDP disappoints
GDP disappoints The intensifying load shedding we saw has severely impacted the growth numbers. The economy shrank by 1.3% q-on-q versus the 1.8% growth in Q3. Loadshedding continued and probably intensified in Q1 of this year, so the prospects for Q1 of 2023 are not looking rosy. If we have another negative quarter of growth, the South African economy will find itself in recession. The economy is limping along and is now back at GDP levels pre the Covid pandemic. Rand under pressure The rand is under pressure for the day, mostly due t...
2023-03-07
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Big week ahead
Big week ahead In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver testimony and take questions from lawmakers on Tuesday and Wednesday. He's expected to echo fellow central bankers in suggesting interest rates will go higher than policymakers anticipated just weeks ago. ECB's Lagarde is also due to speak on Wednesday. In Japan, the Bank of Japan's governor is set to make his final interest rate announcement, which will continue to be no change on Friday. We also have the US non-farm payrolls due on Friday, which can be a market mover again after the bumper...
2023-03-06
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
ISM Services better than expected
ISM Services better than expected US February ISM Services came out at 55.1 versus 54.5 expected. This means services are continuing to expand in the US, and things like dining out and paid vacations are continuing to grow, although it seems that consumer confidence is lower. After trading on the backfoot for the most of the day, the dollar is currently trading stronger after the ISM. Treasury yields in the short end are up again with the 2Y yields just shy of 5%, currently up at 4.92% after dipping below 4.9% overnight. The peak rate of 5% suddenly is not as far-fetched, and...
2023-03-03
00 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar trading firm
Dollar trading firm The dollar is trading with new wind in its sails as Treasury Yields continue to rise. The 2yr yield has edged up to 4.92%, while the 10yr yield is up at 4.07%, creating the most inverted yield curve since the early 1980s. The market is seemingly pricing in that inflation is here to stay and that the Fed will need to keep Rates higher for longer, with the possibility of a 50bps hike during the March meeting rising. Range bound Rand Locally we have been mostly wedged in the R...
2023-03-02
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand recovers some lost ground
Rand recovers some lost ground The rand recovered almost 40c from the high of R18.51 yesterday at a stage today, only to slip back in late afternoon trade. Some good data out of China added the rand’s recovery as there was some position squaring after the valuation of the rand was stretched, but ISM Manufacturing data came out and it showed that prices paid ticked up. This is a concern for the inflation narrative out of the US. The rand was the worst performing currency out of the basket that gets monitored in Feb. Most other em...
2023-03-01
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand struggles
Rand struggles The Rand continues to struggle despite the weaker US dollar. The US dollar has moved out to the 1.0630 level against the Euro, with most EM currencies catching the tailwinds of this move except the Rand. The Rand is still stuck in the R18.35-50 range, with local issues anchoring the Rand with little strength. We have seen the Rand touching the R18.50 level, but like it has done a  couple of times, it has bounced back off the level, and we are currently trading at R18.40. We are concerned with the slackness of the Rand r...
2023-02-28
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Durable goods
Durable goods Durable goods sank 4.5% in January because of a pullback in volatile passenger-plane bookings. Yet business investment rose at the fastest pace in five months in another sign of strength for the economy early in the new year. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 3.6% drop in orders for durable goods. These are products like cars, planes, and computers meant to last at least three years. The dollar is back The question certainly is how long will the current dollar rally last? The dollar is on...
2023-02-27
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Good US data weighs on Rand
While most of the headlines will be hogged by the fact that South Africa has been greylisted, the Rand reacted more to the higher-than-expected PCE data out of the US (4.7% vs 4.2% exp). The PCE is the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, and with inflation looking like it is sticky, it has sent some fears that the Fed needs to be more aggressive and that more rate hikes than previously thought will be needed. This has caused the US dollar to break below the 1.0600 level against the Euro and is currently trading at 1.0550. This caused a bit of panic in...
2023-02-24
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand trading firmer
Rand trading firmer Headlines that Stage 7 load-shedding would be implemented spooked the market earlier this morning, and we saw the rand sell-off to R18.38. However, the market reacted positively on the release of the budget speech’s embargo, as we saw the rand firm to R18.13 before settling below R18.20. A concern from the budget speech would be that Eskom is receiving a bailout of R254 billion, which would effectively see Debt to GDP peak at 73.6% in 2026, slightly higher than what was expected in the October MTBS. There are a few positives for the consumer with no fu...
2023-02-22
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand still looking vulnerable
Rand still looking vulnerable As we head into the calm before the storm, the Rand looks a little vulnerable around the R18.20 mark. We have seen the US dollar on the front foot today, as it tested 1.0650 against the Euro, which was the primary cause for the Rand to weaken. One also has to remember that the US was out of the market yesterday, and the early move in the US dollar could be the repositioning of market players. However, the overall theme is that the US dollar is on the front foot, and the Rand is...
2023-02-21
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand slightly disconnected from other EMs
Rand slightly disconnected from other EMs The rand softened during most of the day, trading in a 15cent range, while other EM’s grinded out small gains. The rand’s performance over the past few weeks has not been the best, and we could expect the rand to remain under pressure with load-shedding pushed back to stage 6 and the upcoming budget speech on Wednesday. We expect little to change overnight, with the US market being closed, and we could see our local market trade slightly more risk-off tomorrow. The dollar flat for the...
2023-02-20
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand is ending the week on the front foot
Rand is ending the week on the front foot After the week the Rand had, we have seen the Rand ending the week on the front foot. The Rand is under pressure from local factors and a stronger US dollar, and we did see the Rand reach R18.28 during trade today. The US dollar was within eye-sight of the 1.0600 level but has since retreated towards 1.0650, giving Rand a bit of respite. The fact that the US market is out of action next week Monday probably helped the move lower as market players are squaring off positions. Next...
2023-02-17
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar climbs on hawkish Fed remarks
Dollar climbs on hawkish Fed remarks The PPI data was decidedly unfriendly to the disinflationary narrative. It came out 0.7% month-on-month, up from -0.2% in December and ahead of forecasts of 0.4%, not only quite a bit higher than expected across all aggregates last month, but prior data was revised up as well. Treasury yields are rising fast after the Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester said she saw a compelling case for a 50-bp rate hike at the February meeting. Mester also said the risk for inflation is to the upside and that the Fed may not achieve its 2% target...
2023-02-16
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Strong US numbers continue
Strong US numbers continue The list of US economic data that surprise to the topside continues, as Retail Sales for January print higher than expected. The market’s reaction on the back of the number was bullish for the dollar, with the greenback currently trading below 1.20 against the pound and at 1.0660 against the euro. The dollar index is touching the 1.04 mark for the first time since November 2022. Rand Update Locally there has not been much reaction with local data releases, with local retail sales being a second-tier number and CPI pri...
2023-02-15
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Risk off and Moody’s woes
Risk off and Moody’s woes The rand tracked back above the R18.00 handle today, the first time since rumors emerged for the Phala Phala saga back in November. Continued risk-off sentiment, a stronger dollar, and a warning from Moody’s over their concern about the potential impact on GDP from load-shedding have been the catalyst for the rand’s performance today. Looking at other EM currencies, the inherent risk built into the rand over load-shedding does seem to be mostly priced in, with the rand tracking a similar pattern to its peers in the past few sessio...
2023-02-13
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
EM's under pressure
EM's under pressure The Rand and its EM peers are under renewed pressure, with all EM currencies in the red for the day. The move in the US dollar today caused EM's to slide as the sentiment heading into the weekend turned decidedly negative. The US dollar is currently trading at 1.0693, breaking below the 1.0700 level and quite a move from the 1.0780's where we traded yesterday. The Rand punched through the R17.90 level very briefly but has since settled around the R17.85 mark. Markets will turn their attention to the CPI numbers next week, and we could...
2023-02-10
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Softer dollar boosts rand before SONA
Softer dollar boosts rand before SONA The dollar has softened during the course of the day, with the rand trading back around the R17.65 handle at the moment. Our local currency looked shaky during the early morning hours after it opened just below the R17.80 mark, but a softer dollar led to the rand grinding lower ahead of tonight’s SONA address. The euro and pound are both 0.8% stronger for the day, currently trading at 1.0780 and 1.2185 against the dollar, respectively. Other markets US equities have followed the Eastern markets and op...
2023-02-09
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand is on a slippery slope
Rand is on a slippery slope The Rand rode a little bit of a rollercoaster in the last 24 hours, as the Rand dipped all the way to R17.45 during Fed Chair Powell's speech but soon popped back up to R17.60. Today the Rand started off the day around R17.50 but has since lost some ground and is currently trading at R17.80. Pinpointing the exact cause of the Rand weakness has been a bit difficult as we have seen EM selling off a bit, and we have a stronger US dollar, but it is still being determined why...
2023-02-08
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand trading in a range
Rand trading in a range There has been a fair amount of risk-premium built into the rand over the past few days, and After three straight sessions of rand selling, we look set to post a green day at the moment. The local currency traded in a relatively narrow 10-cent range for the day and looks intent to end the day close to the R17.60 handle. The dollar marches on The dollar has pushed forward against its major peers, trading 0.3% stronger against the euro and pound. We have Jerome Powell...
2023-02-07
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Risk-off still in evidence
Risk-off still in evidence Today we have seen a bit of follow-through from Friday's risk-off sentiment as the Rand reacted to a stronger US dollar. The Rand started the day around the R17.45 level but has weakened past the crucial R17.50 level and is currently trading at R17.60 against the US dollar. Similarly, the US dollar has strengthened back to 1.0750 against the Euro, and it is not too long ago that the US dollar was trading at 1.0950. With a host of Fed speakers speaking this week, we expect the market to listen very closely to the tone...
2023-02-06
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Jobs report surprise
Jobs report surprise The US non-farm payroll data blew expectations out of the water, coming out at 517,000 jobs versus 188,000. It seems too good to be true and is, with the gain is primarily due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data. These revisions include updating the population controls – which would have the mechanical effect of boosting the labour force – and updating seasonal factors, which could distort the January non-farm payroll number. For example, the non-seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll change in January is actually -2.5 million. The unemployment rate is at cyclical low at 3.4%, with labour force part...
2023-02-03
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Central Bank week providing volatility
Central Bank week providing volatility Following the outcome of the FOMC last night, the ECB and BoE announced that they would raise rates according to the 50bps expectation. The market’s reaction is the interesting part in the fact that we see both the euro and pound trading down 0.50%. In recent weeks we have seen the dollar fall under pressure against the euro and pound, and the only logical explanation is that we are a reset after all central banks have played their cards. Rand and EM’s holding firm The...
2023-02-02
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand enjoys positive sentiment before Fed
Rand enjoys positive sentiment before Fed The Rand has been on the front foot for most of the day as the local unit trades at R17.23 against the US dollar. Whether the move is a bit of positioning before the Fed remains to be seen, but the Fed is the main course this evening. We did see the US dollar a little bit weaker after the ADP number disappointed, which in turn only helped the Rands cause. The Euro was also trading stronger as Eurozone inflation rose by less than expected at 8.5% vs. the 8.9% expected.
2023-02-01
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Market waiting for the Fed
Market waiting for the Fed Much has been said about the market moving range-bound ahead of the FOMC outcome tomorrow evening, and today has been nothing different. The dollar is trading flat against the euro and pound, with EM's still tracking softer. The rand tested slightly below R17.50 before trading back toward this morning's opening levels. Our local currency continues to trade weaker than its peers, with the current levels being the weakest we have seen year to date, with some inherent load-shedding risk still priced into the market. Commodities ...
2023-01-31
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Week starts off being risk-off
Week starts off being risk-off With the amount of economic data and events this week, we have seen the market being decidedly risk-off. We have seen US treasury yields higher as the market is trying to determine what might happen this week. This week we have the Fed with its interest rate decision and the ECB with its interest rate decision and to cap the week of the US non-farm payroll number. Each of these events has got the potential to cause some serious moves in the market depending on the tone struck by the data and...
2023-01-30
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Markets range-bound ahead of Fed
Markets range-bound ahead of Fed The rand has traded fairly range bound this week, even though the SARB surprised with a 25bps hike yesterday afternoon. We have traded sideways between the R17.05 to R17.30 range for most of the week, with the dollar tracking sideways against most of its peers. The dollar is ending the week slightly up against the euro and pound, with the market patiently waiting for the first FOMC meeting of 2023 next week. US Core PCE came out in line with expectations this afternoon, supporting the hawkish commentary by Fed officials earlier in the...
2023-01-27
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
SARB surprises with 25bps interest rate hike
SARB surprises with 25bps interest rate hike SARB has raised interest rates by 25bps, taking repo to 7.25% and prime rate to 10.75%. SARB has also drastically revised their growth for the economy down in 2023 to 0.3% from 1.2% previously, as load-shedding is severely hampering growth. A material reduction in load-shedding could raise the growth again. Inflation is to average 5.4% in 2023, so back within the target band of SARB but warns that there are still upside risks to the inflation outlook. Food and energy prices could be the main culprits. US GDP, Jobless Claims Numbers Make 2023 Rate Cuts Unlikely
2023-01-26
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Markets caught in pre-data malaise
With data out of the US and the MPC of South Africas' meeting tomorrow, we have seen markets trading in a lacklustre manner. The Rand has traded in an 8-cent range for the day with little to no direction before tomorrow. The Rand is currently trading at R 17.20 and looking to stay there for the evening session. The prediction for tomorrow is split right down the middle in the market, with some market players calling a 25 basis point hike while others are sticking to the 50 basis point hike. We expect the tone of the Governor's speech to be important...
2023-01-25
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Bit of excitement in the morning
The Rand started around the R17.20 level this morning and weakened quite sharply to R17.30 in the morning trading session. Since the initial run-up, it has stayed relatively stable around the R17.30 level, as no noteworthy events happened in the market. Pinpointing the reason why the Rand lost ground so quickly this morning is unclear, but we did see most of the EM markets have the same knee-jerk, and we could only speculate that a fresh wave of recession talk has entered the market. For the most part, the US dollar also stayed range bound, making the move by...
2023-01-24
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Slow day in the currency space
A slow day in the currency space, which saw most currencies tracking sideways. The dollar traded fairly range-bound against most of its peers, with the euro currently holding firm around the 1.0850 mark. The dollar gained 1% against the JPY as markets digest the minutes from last week’s Bank of Japan meeting. The rand has traded back to the R17.20 levels, with US Treasury Yields creeping higher during the afternoon. The rand remains stuck in a broader R16.80 to R17.40 range as we await this week’s first MPC meeting of 2023 and remain driven by rhetoric from Fed speakers.
2023-01-23
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Looking forward to next week
Rand is looking to close below R17.20 While the Rand looked under pressure in early morning trade with the local unit testing the R17.35 level. The Rand made an about-turn since hitting R17.35 and is currently trading at R17.20. The peculiar thing was that the Rand strengthened in the wake of a stronger US dollar, with the greenback currently trading at 1.0810. The belief is that there is a bit of profit-taking in the market, and the Rand has benefitted from it. Commodities are also on the back foot, which only gives credence to the fact that there...
2023-01-20
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Emerging Markets trading softer
EM’s trading softer Emerging markets currencies have been under pressure during the course of the day, with global recession fears and hawkish Fed commentary weighing down risky assets. The Rand has lost 1% during the day, trading as weak as R17.30 at a stage but slightly stronger at R17.27 now. The Rand continues to trade weaker than most of its EM peers, with local headwinds keeping the Rand from playing catch-up. Equities in the US have also opened weaker, with the S&P down 0.7%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are also down over 0.5%. The dollar has, ho...
2023-01-19
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Weaker US Data, softer dollar
Weaker US Data, softer dollar Softer US data has seen the dollar trading on the back foot this afternoon, with markets favoring riskier assets. US PPI printed at 6.2% y-o-y, versus the 6.8% expectation, while retail sales declined 1.1% in December against the 0.8% decline which was expected. We have seen the dollar trade softer against its major peers, with the euro and pound currently trading at 1.0880 and 1.2430, respectively. Treasury Yields in the US have fallen after the PPI release, with the 10yr yield dropping to its lowest point since September, as the data confirms that inflation could be starting to...
2023-01-18
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand lagging other emerging markets
Emerging markets are performing relatively well, but the rand is not following. Normally as the rand is a very liquid EM currency and benefits from risk-on rallies, the only explanation for the underperformance is the current ongoing electricity crisis we are facing. We will need to keep an eye on this. If the risk-on rally in other emerging markets stalls, the rand could be in for further pain. As stated last week, the R16.80 to R17.40 range seems to be comfortable for the currency in the short term. Rand made a bright start to the day, trading below R17.00...
2023-01-17
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand on the backfoot
The Rand is under pressure today due to the lack of liquidity, the US being out of the market, and the protests that we have seen across the country are placing pressure on the local unit. The rest of the emerging market space has also been under pressure, but the rand is leading the way as load-shedding and the cost to the economy is worrying investors. We have seen President Ramaphosa cancel his WEF responsibility to attend to the Eskom crisis. The rand touched a high of R17.12 against the US dollar but has...
2023-01-16
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Likelihood of a recession in 2023? Here's what we think
🎙Webinar with the Finance Ghost & TreasuryONE
2022-12-07
44 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
SA GDP
SA GDP The local economy grew by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 of 2022. After the negative growth in Q2 of 2022, partly due to the floods in KZN in April, means that South Africa avoided a technical recession. This is all upbeat for now, but the South African economy is still not growing at a pace fast enough to create more jobs. Markets barely reacted to the print as the rand remained within a 10-cent range for the most part of the day and is currently trading around the R17.30 handle.  PMI data provided short-term gains...
2022-12-06
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
US dollar on the back foot
US dollar on the back foot The US dollar is currently within reach of the 1.0600 level against the Euro. It has erased more than half the year's gains in the past couple of weeks, as the market is betting that the US Fed will temper its aggressive stance on hiking interest rates and the current speculation of the reopening of China. The currency "risk-on" sentiment, coupled with news over the weekend that President Ramaphosa is unlikely to resign, has helped the Rand strengthen and is currently trading at R17.2400. This is far from the R17.9500 that we...
2022-12-05
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
A different kind a of Ramaphoria
A different kind a of Ramaphoria The Phala Phala headlines and rumors surrounding the possible resignation of President Ramaphosa are still keeping the rand under pressure. The rand posted another wide trading session of R17.26 - R17.60, closing the week slightly below the R17.50 handle. Looking at where the dollar is trading against other currencies, one could easily argue a case of levels closer to R16.70 if we erase the whole matter. For now, any developments surrounding the saga would create volatility for the rand and could remain the key driver for the local currency in the...
2022-12-02
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand under pressure
Rand under pressure We have seen the Rand almost lose One Rand today, with the Rand trading between R17.0700 and R17.9500. The massive range was due to the rumors in the market about President Ramaphosa and his possible announcement of resigning following the Phala Phala report. The market has not taken kindly to the news, and we have seen the Rand on the back foot and massive volatility due to the rumor mill spilling. Until we have some concrete news, we can expect the Rand to remain volatile, and the Rand could have a knee-jerk should the...
2022-12-01
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Emerging Markets on the front foot
EM’s on the front foot The rand is enjoying the last few trading sessions, and today has not been any different. After spending most of the day in a narrow range, the rand is looking to make a break below R16.90. The rand last saw a close below R16.90 back in August this year, with the stronger dollar keeping the local currency on the back foot since. Earlier today, our Trade Balance came out a negative R4.3bn against the positive R16.8bn expected, but little to damper the rand trading stronger. ...
2022-11-30
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
News from China helps risky assets
News from China helps risky assets We saw earlier this morning that while the Chinese government is sticking to its zero-Covid policy, some of the measures have been relaxed as a result of the protests in China. Lockdowns to suppress the spread of the virus should be lifted “as quickly as possible” following outbreaks, said health officials at a National Health Commission press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday, as they defended the country’s overall policy direction – which aims to stamp out the spread of the virus through hefty controls. This induced a little bit of risk-on momentum...
2022-11-29
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Softer dollar the central theme
The softer dollar was the central theme for the morning as the dollar lost ground against other major currencies. The euro firmed to just below 1.05, the pound traded above 1.21, and we see the Yen currently up 0.37% against the greenback. The rand, however hovered in a relatively tight range for most of the day as it bounced around between R17.08 to R17.16, not benefiting too much from the dollar losing some ground against its peers. The rand does seem to be stuck in a wider R16.90 to R17.30 range for now, and we could need some surprising offshore data or...
2022-11-28
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Dollar rally
Dollar rally The dollar has given up some substantial ground in the past 3 weeks. This has helped along the risk-on rally we have witnessed and supported our local currency. The rally in USD/ZAR has been around R1.50 in the past 3 weeks. The dollar index is now running into substantial support at the 200-day moving average. We think this support will hold for now and that there can be a bit of a correction. This could see the R16.95 level act as support for now on USD/ZAR, and a test back to R17.30 is possible.Â
2022-11-25
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
SARB hikes 75bps
SARB hikes 75bps As widely expected, the SARB hiked by 75bps, although the vote under the members was only 3-2 in favour of the 75bps hike. Inflation is expected to be back within the 3% to 6% target band in 2023. We can see another 50bps hike in January from the SARB and then a pause the hiking cycle. It will also depend on what the Federal Reserve does in Dec. Dollar under pressure The dollar is still on the back foot, and emerging markets is enjoying the reprieve. The risk-on scenario we have seen in t...
2022-11-24
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Rand on the march
The rand traded at its best levels against the dollar since the end of August after breaking below the R17.10 handle late afternoon. The reasoning behind it could be argued that some global risk-on is happening in the markets, with EM’s across the board trading on the front foot. Another cause might be that the gambling man is betting on the SARB to raise rates by more than the expected 75bps tomorrow. This will be after the October inflation number came out higher than expected and topping the September CPI print. The dollar is slightly softer against the Eu...
2022-11-23
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
Sideways for now
It was a lackluster day in the market today, with most currencies trading in very narrow ranges. The rand traded in a 10cent range for most of the day, touching a high of R17.35 in the morning trading session but has found a comfortable level at R17.30, where it is currently trading. The sideways action has been seen throughout the market, with all the currencies having a very slow day. The US dollar is holding firm below the 1.0300 level against the euro at 1.0261. Gold is also holding firm at around $1,745 per ounce. More emphasis will be placed o...
2022-11-22
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
TreasuryONE Market Wrap - 30 Aug 2022
Dollar still marching The waves the ECB made with talks about a 75-bps hike next week only lasted a short while. The dollar turns around at the start of the US session, with the Euro trading below parity again. The European political players also want to intervene in the power markets. Will this be a game changer? We have seen some of the energy prices come back from its elevated levels, but what will be the plan is the question. The GBP also traded well above 1.17 but has since fallen back to 1.1630. The hawkish stance from the...
2022-08-30
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
TreasuryONE Daily Market Wrap - 29 Aug 2022
Currency update Bullish sentiment on the dollar has eased during the day, and we see the rand and other currencies trading on the front foot this afternoon, with the dollar index back below 109. Overnight the rand rallied from Friday’s close to the higher R16.90’s but has tracked lower during the course of the day and aiming at a close below R16.85. The euro is up 0.6% at the moment and back above parity as the market ease away from the bullish sentiment left at Jackson Hole last week. We can expect the dollar to still remain upbe...
2022-08-29
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
TreasuryONE Market Wrap - 26 Aug 2022
Powell speech at Jackson Hole After waiting the whole week for Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market got a whole 7-minute speech which only reiterated the Fed's mantra that its monetary policy will be data-driven going forward. We have seen markets struggling to digest the short speech by Fed Chair Powell, with the Rand trading quite wildly in a 10-cent range after the speech. The US dollar just about touched the 1.01 level against the Euro but has since fought back and is trading at 1.0040 against the Euro. Sideways into next w...
2022-08-26
01 min
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
TreasuryONE Market Wrap - 25 Aug 2022
TreasuryONE Market Wrap - 25 Aug 2022
2022-08-25
01 min
BizNews Power Hour
Latest on Russia/Ukraine War; TreasuryOne's Andre Cilliers on Ukraine conflict boosting Rand; Steven Gruzd explains SA prospective on Ukraine; Zille Q&A part 1
In this episode of the BizNews Power Hour, it's dominated by the latest in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine; our partner the FT has all the international developments you need to know; BizNews editor Alec Hogg chats to TreasuryONE's Andre Cilliers about the unintended consequence of the conflict on the strength of the Rand against other major currencies; Michael Appel speaks to Steven Gruzd from the SA Institute of International Affairs about our government's position regarding the war; part one of Hogg's recent Q&A session with DA Federal Chair Helen Zille from BNC#3.
2022-03-07
1h 00
BizNews Power Hour
Former Google SA CEO talks crypto; DA slams Road Accident Fund; TreasuryONE's Andre Cilliers; David Shapiro
In this episode of the BizNews Power Hour, South African tech investor, entrepreneur, and former Google SA CEO, Stafford Masie, popped into our Johannesburg studio to give a snippet of what the BizNews tribe can expect at the upcoming BizNews Investment Conference where he's a guest speaker; the DA has slammed the Road Accident Fund's court action to stop the Auditor General from publishing its audited financials; investment doubleheader with TreasuryONE's Andre Cilliers and veteran investor David Shapiro; all your international business news from our partner the Financial Times.
2022-02-21
1h 00
Markets Update with TreasuryONE
TreasuryONE & ETM Analytics present: "How will monetary policies influence currencies?"
Welcome to the first webinar for 2022.
2022-02-17
58 min
BizNews
TreasuryOne's Andre Cilliers on the robust Rand
TreasuryOne's currency expert Andre Cilliers dives into the factors influencing the rand dollar price action at the moment.
2022-02-07
11 min