Max Rudolph & Dave Ingram - Podcast Details

Shows

Crossing Thin IceRisks and RewardDo you believe higher risk always leads to higher returns? This podcast challenges that conventional wisdom. Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram explore the critical roles of judgment, timing, and execution in achieving successful outcomes. Through real-world examples and insightful discussions, they reveal why many businesses operate below the efficient frontier and how understanding these dynamics can lead to better business choices. Join us for practical insights that could transform your approach to risk management and enhance your enterprise risk management (ERM) program. 2025-07-0818 min

Crossing Thin IceBeware the Myths of AIAre AI myths clouding your judgment? Join Dave and Max as they debunk the two most common fantasies about artificial intelligence, revealing the true story of its capabilities and risks. Discover the balance between harnessing AI as a partner and maintaining human oversight. This episode is a must for anyone navigating the evolving landscape of AI risk management. 2025-06-1727 min

Crossing Thin IceTime to Update your Scenarios?Recent economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate impacts are reshaping the landscape of risk. With insights on the importance of adapting scenario planning in turbulent times, this episode emphasizes preparing for unexpected futures and reevaluating assumptions to avoid costly missteps. Dave and Max highlight the interconnectedness of financial stability, regulatory pressures, and societal challenges, providing listeners with valuable strategies for enhancing their enterprise risk management programs to meet these challenges. 2025-06-0319 min

Crossing Thin IceEnhancing Your Creativity with AIExplore how AI can enhance creative problem-solving within risk management. Dave and Max discuss the importance of adapting to emerging risks and the role AI can play in this process. From generating innovative ideas to providing instant feedback and keeping track of complex iterative processes, AI serves as a powerful partner for risk professionals. Tune in to discover practical strategies for leveraging AI to think creatively about risk management, improve decision-making, and stay ahead in an unpredictable world. 2025-05-0614 min

Crossing Thin IceEmerging Risks and the Insurer’s DilemmaInsurance only works if we can all keep up with the rapid changes being brought on by climate change. In this podcast, Max Rudolph explores the challenges insurers face with wildfires, hurricanes, and the struggle to set fair premiums. They discuss the need for community resilience, regulatory shifts, and innovative predictive modeling. Join them to discover how homeowners can protect themselves in an unpredictable market and why sustainable practices are essential for the future of insurance. 2025-04-1518 min

Crossing Thin IceAnti-ERM BeliefsAnyone who has worked in Risk Management has encountered individuals who, for one reason or another, do not believe that ERM is beneficial to a company. In this podcast, Max and Dave examine 10 common Anti-ERM Beliefs and suggest ways to address them. 2025-04-0118 min

Crossing Thin IceJust Around the Corner: 2025 Stress ScenariosDiscover four scenarios that could reshape our world and your business. Max and Dave are always talking about how important it is to do stress tests. Here are some examples of today’s risks to get you started. Each of these scenarios is built off a plausible extrapolation of recent trends. This podcast offers a deep dive into the dynamics that could have a major impact your organization. Tune in to prepare for the challenges ahead and turn potential threats into opportunities for growth. 2025-03-1822 min

Crossing Thin IceOcean Acidification and the AMOCClimate change isn’t just about heat. It’s also changing the chemistry of our oceans, with serious consequences for marine life and food security. In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we examine how ocean acidification could accelerate ecosystem collapse. By Max Rudolph 2025-02-1818 min

Crossing Thin IceOwn Factor Risk FormulasAre you using RBC for your company’s risk capital calculations? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the power of Own Factor Risk Formulas—customized risk metrics that can give insurers a clearer, faster, and more accurate picture of their capital needs that is easy to explain to executives and boards. From historical stress testing to AI-enhanced risk management, we explore how companies can move beyond regulatory formulas to build a model that truly fits their risk profile. 2025-02-0420 min

Crossing Thin IceDoes the Starting Point Matter?When building scenarios - It certainly does! Think about how the 2008 financial crisis reshaped economic forecasts. Those who clung to pre-crisis assumptions faced severe consequences. Acknowledging a new starting point means more resilient strategies. By Max Rudolph 2025-01-2119 min

Crossing Thin IceAlign ERM to the CompanyEver wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret. ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected. It will not transform the company. Imagine an ERM program that your whole company supports. That is what you need. By Dave Ingram 2025-01-0722 min

Crossing Thin IceAdaptor - A Vital New Business RoleThe future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance of adaptability in modern business. Explore how the new Adaptor role will help companies to anticipate challenges, leverage opportunities, and embed resilience into every decision. 2024-12-1718 min

Crossing Thin IceLarge Language Models in Risk ManagementDiscover how LLMs are transforming the way risk professionals tackle complex problems, enhancing decision-making much like spreadsheets revolutionized calculations. Listen as we dive into the practical applications of LLMs for Chief Risk Officers, from environmental monitoring to scenario generation, breaking down how these tools can help manage uncertainty, identify weak spots, and even reveal what’s missing in risk assessments. By Dave Ingram 2024-11-0520 min

Crossing Thin IceModel Assumptions under Increasing UncertaintyThere are massive challenges for setting modeling assumptions in an era of increasing uncertainty. With insights into the impact of climate change, economic volatility, and emerging risks on actuarial models, this podcast explores the concept of resilience in modeling by adapting assumptions to manage volatility from unexpected events. Max Rudolph provides practical advice on addressing assumption uncertainty, integrating risk margins, and refining risk management strategies across assets and liabilities. 2024-10-2219 min

Crossing Thin IceRegime Change - Before & AfterOnce more, we dive into a critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow. This episode of Crossing Thin Ice features insights from experts Max Rudolph, David Ingram, Raghu Ramachandran, and Jim Evans. Our conversation covers key drivers like climate change, debt levels, demographics, and technology, and explores tipping points that could dramatically reshape the risk landscape. Join us as we analyze potential scenarios and the vital role that risk management plays in navigating these transformations for insurers and beyond. Now available – documentation of how the scenar...2024-09-2421 min

Crossing Thin IceAI in Investing: Enhancing Risk StrategyAI is being used to improve investment decision-making and risk management. Dave and Max discuss how these models can be retrained with specialized knowledge to enhance long-term strategies while addressing key risks like data bias and overfitting with guest Kailan Shang. Join us as we explore the growing role of AI in shaping the future of investment management. Shang has written a research paper https://tinyurl.com/25v27q4p that emphasizes the importance of balancing AI's analytical power with human judgment and ethical considerations. Listeners will discover how AI is shaping the future of investing and the key r...2024-09-1029 min

Crossing Thin IceVector Borne IllnessesAs winters grow milder and the global climate shifts, vector-borne diseases like Lyme and Zika are spreading to new regions. Join us as we delve into the science behind this expansion and explore the public health strategies essential for staying ahead of these threats. Another emerging risk podcast by Max Rudolph. 2024-08-2017 min

Crossing Thin IceZero Cash Flow AssetsIs there a Place for Zero Cash Flow Assets? Whether a product of today’s added complexity or a result of the recent reach for yield when rates are low, more assets are being held by insurance companies with irregular or deferred cash flows. Some find this a natural progression, while others never find it appropriate. The answer is somewhere in the middle. It depends, but often can add value when done in moderation. This podcast will walk us through examples that differentiate specific products between times of stability and stress. By Max Rudolph 2024-07-2318 min

Crossing Thin IceOverconfidence We are all overconfident. Sometimes Overconfidence is what is needed to get out of bed in the morning. In an insurance company it is often the chief risk officer's duty to look out for overconfidence. In an unusual twist, this podcast addresses overconfidence of chief risk officers and what they can do about it. By Dave Ingram 2024-07-0918 min

Crossing Thin IceRisk Beliefs You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram. We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we have observed. Please take our totally anonymous survey about RISK BELIEFS. We have been sharing discussions of the 30 Risk Beliefs - Read about them HERE 2024-06-0416 min

Crossing Thin IceCybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024 The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual Dangerous Risks survey, learn why we think that Cybercrime is here to stay. By Dave Ingram And here is the link to the Fear vs. Danger podcast where we go into detail about what it takes to make something highly Feared even when it is only moderately Dangerous. https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/fear-vs-danger/ 2024-05-2118 min

Crossing Thin IcePermafrost Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph. 2024-05-0716 min

Crossing Thin IceRegime Change - ScenariosFour scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part series. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph 2024-04-2323 min

Crossing Thin IceInterest Rate Risk for Insurers When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. Looking at past events help to prepare for similar tail events in the future. By Max Rudolph. 2024-04-0921 min

Crossing Thin IceDangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. 2024-03-2122 min

Crossing Thin IceNo Free Lunch New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers need to adjust for incomplete investment cycles that include only the positive part (e.g., high spreads) but not the defaults and liquidity crises typical at the end of a cycle. By Max Rudolph 2024-03-0519 min

Crossing Thin IceRiskMaster Cheat Code Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for specific topics like stress testing and risk reporting to allow a new risk team to start from a solid base should that be needed. It also can act as a cheat sheet for the Board to be able to participate in ERM discussions even though they do not live in the system. By Dave Ingram. 2024-02-2021 min

Crossing Thin IceWater, Water Everywhere Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. Insurers increasingly are dealing with these extreme weather events that highlight the presence of too much water (hurricanes, inland flooding) or too little water (drought, fire). Today Max covers some existing issues while others will be emerging at a later time. By Max Rudolph 2024-02-0622 min

Crossing Thin IceAchieving Resilience Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram. 2024-01-2318 min

Crossing Thin IceUsing Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an end eventually. By Max Rudolph. 2024-01-0914 min

Crossing Thin IceRegime Changes lead to New NormalRadical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persists for some time creating a new normal. We make the case that this is coming in our world. By Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram 2023-12-1823 min

Crossing Thin IceLeverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management It was tempting, when interest rates were so low, to borrow just because you could. But that may not be best for an organization from a risk/reward perspective. Leverage can have a major impact on the risk profile that is not usually considered. Leverage is actually the flip side of risk management. By Dave Ingram 2023-12-0417 min

Crossing Thin IceClimate Migration No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat. The alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan to deal with massive climate migration. By Max Rudolph. 2023-11-2014 min

Crossing Thin IceRisk and Capital Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss several broad choices for the level of capital and the pros and cons of each based upon common business objectives. By Dave Ingram. 2023-11-0616 min

Crossing Thin IceInteractions between risks: Implications for building scenariosHistorically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios that interact between financial and non-financial risks are discussed. By Max Rudolph. 2023-10-2321 min

Crossing Thin IceAfter COVIDPrior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they are similar to the reactions that companies are having to COVID. Several very different reactions have been observed, but only one has a lasting favorable impact on the risk management program. By Dave Ingram 2023-09-2513 min

Crossing Thin IceSix Futures for ERM Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities mentioned here has probably changed significantly because of our experiences over the past two years. Which future will you be prepared for and which would have been a total surprise if you hadn’t listened to this podcast? By Dave Ingram 2023-09-1120 min

Crossing Thin IceSuper Volcano A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar events will happen again. These Super Volcanoes tend to have numerous knock-on effects. By Max Rudolph 2023-08-2116 min

Crossing Thin IceConcentration Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. 2023-08-0723 min

Crossing Thin IceCascadia Earthquake When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph 2023-07-2316 min

Crossing Thin IceTelling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapters, so you have to choose. By Dave Ingram 2023-07-1015 min

Crossing Thin IceMicroplastics Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing nets, micro beads and nurdles are a start. By Max Rudolph 2023-06-1913 min

Crossing Thin IceThree Levels of StressStress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very important when managing risk for an insurer. Management, Boards and Regulators will each find something to like with these three levels of stress. By Dave Ingram 2023-06-0718 min

Crossing Thin IceInflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the current bout of inflation, the impact on the insurance industry along with the most common responses. In addition, we also invert the question and consider what would cause future inflation to be very low. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph 2023-05-0822 min

Crossing Thin IceSpillover Diseases As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenza but should monitor closely diseases like bird flu and Ebola. By Max Rudolph 2023-04-0719 min

Crossing Thin IceMost Dangerous Risks Over 200 respondents in the Dangerous Risks to Insurers Survey reordered the top risks, with Inflation swapping with Cybersecurity and cybercrime for the #1 spot, and Global/National recession moving into the top 5 at #3. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph 2023-03-2316 min

Crossing Thin IceBacterial Antimicrobial Resistance This podcast is a challenge for you to consider something that is likely not yet on your risk register. Could the spread of bacteria with resistance to antibiotics have an impact on your business plans? We provide some questions that you might ask as well as some preliminary answers. 2023-03-0117 min

Crossing Thin IceLearning from LossA major loss often causes management to question past decisions. They might even reverse some of them, but this may be an overreaction. The Chief Risk Officer improves the discussion by bringing a systematic review of the risk related decisions that preceded the loss. In many cases potential problems can be fixed without taking drastic and dramatic actions. 2023-02-2217 min

Crossing Thin IceModerately Adverse ConditionsWe have generally used a continuation of the current environment as our base assumption. But now, with the encouragement of the NY DFS, that is being treated as worse than “Moderately Adverse” scenario. Insurers need to develop a robust set of stress scenarios to test reserve adequacy that include continuation of current conditions and a variety of variations in experience, not just interest rates. 2023-02-1317 min

Crossing Thin IceThree Little PigsWhen you encounter vastly different risk taking behaviors at two different businesses, you shouldn’t automatically presume that they are driven by totally different risk tolerances. In some cases they are actually the result of similar risk tolerances and major disagreements in risk assessment. Just ask the Three Little Pigs. 2023-01-2815 min

Crossing Thin IceNarrative ScenariosThe current real life scenario combines a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time. Multi risk scenarios can provide major insights about a firm’s resilience that do not necessarily happen with single risk scenarios or even with stochastic models. You may not agree with all of them. They are meant to encourage you to think rather than to be predictive. 2023-01-2819 min