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Astral Codex Ten PodcastACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026 This year's prediction contest is live on Metaculus. They write: This year's contest draws directly from that community, with all questions suggested by ACX readers. Both experienced forecasters and newcomers are invited to participate, making predictions across U.S. politics, AI, international affairs, and culture. To participate, submit your predictions by January 17th at 11:59 PM PT. At that time, we will take a snapshot of all standing forecasts, which will determine the contest rankings and the allocation of the $10,000 prize pool. While you are encouraged to continue updating your predictions throughout the year, forecasts made...
2026-01-1101 minAstral Codex Ten PodcastSuggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest ACX has been co-running a forecasting contest with Metaculus for the past few years. Lately the "co-running" has drifted towards them doing all the work and giving me credit, but that's how I like it! Last year's contest included more than 4500 forecasters predicting on 33 questions covering US politics, international events, AI, and more. They're preparing for this year's contest, and currently looking for interesting questions. These could be any objective outcome that might or might not happen in 2026, whose answer will be known by the end of the year. Not "Will Congress do a good job?", but "...
2025-12-0201 min
Prediction Market News"Prediction Markets Shift Ahead of 2024 Election: Trump Leads Biden, AI Pause Doubts Grow"Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with strong movements across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. Right now, Polymarket is dominating both in volume and in setting the tone for expectations ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The top market by far is the one asking who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Donald Trump currently holds a 56 percent probability, while Joe Biden has slipped to 38 percent, down three points from earlier this week. Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama continue to trade in low single digits, but Kamala ticked up slightly yesterday to 5 percent, a one-point bump...
2025-08-1703 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction markets see volatility as Trump surges, Gaza ceasefire prospects rise, and AGI likelihood growsIt has been a busy few days in the world of prediction markets, with some big swings across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The most active market by volume over the past 48 hours has once again been the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump's contract on Polymarket jumping to 56 cents as of this morning, up from 51 cents just two days ago. That move appears to have been triggered by the announcement of a favorable internal poll from a major Republican super PAC, which shows Trump outperforming in key swing states. Joe Biden's contract fell to 39 cents in response...
2025-08-1203 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets See Surge in Activity Amid Biden Replacement Speculation and Other High-Profile EventsPrediction markets have seen a burst of unexpected movement over the past forty-eight hours, especially across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. On Polymarket, the largest surge in trading volume has centered around the question of whether Joe Biden will be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee before November. As of this morning, that market had over 2.2 million dollars in volume and saw a sharp spike, rising from 21 cents to 36 cents in just over a day. That means traders are suddenly putting the probability of a Biden exit at thirty-six percent. The momentum appears tied to concern after an uneven press conference...
2025-07-3103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Rapid Geopolitical and Political ShiftsPrediction markets have kicked into high gear this week as several major geopolitical and political storylines shift rapidly. Across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus, traders and forecasters are reacting in near real-time to developments around the U.S. presidential race, Russian internal dynamics, and economic outlooks in the second half of 2024. As of this morning, the top three markets by volume on Polymarket are the 2024 U.S. presidential winner, Biden’s odds of dropping out before November, and whether inflation in the U.S. will drop below three percent by September. On PredictIt, attention is split between Republican vice presidential nominee sp...
2025-07-2703 minPrediction Market NewsPolitical Prediction Markets See Flurry of Activity Amid Shifting DynamicsPolymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus have all seen significant action in the last 48 hours, with several markets experiencing sharp movements driven by breaking news and shifting public sentiment. On Polymarket, the highest volume continues to come from political forecasting, particularly the presidential election contracts. The market asking who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election saw major action after the first televised general election debate was officially scheduled. President Joe Biden dropped to 36 cents while Donald Trump climbed to 49, the widest gap between the two since early March. This shift seems to have followed a wave of polling data showing tightening...
2025-07-2003 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction markets see volatility ahead of 2024 U.S. electionThe past couple of days have brought fresh volatility across prediction markets, with traders recalibrating odds in real time as new polls, headlines, and events unfold. Polymarket continues to dominate in terms of volume, with its 2024 U.S. presidential election markets pulling in roughly 2.6 million dollars in trading just in the past 48 hours. As of this morning, the market for "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?" climbed to 61 cents, up four points since Wednesday, while the contract for Joe Biden fell to 34 cents. That drop marks Biden’s lowest point since late March and has some users pulling liquidity from lo...
2025-07-0803 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Abuzz with Election Speculation, Tech BetsThe prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with a flurry of activity around global elections, tech breakthroughs, and unexpected geopolitical shifts. Let’s dive into the latest trends driving the sharpest market moves across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus.On Polymarket, the highest volume market remains the 2024 US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald Trump will win has surged in activity over the past 48 hours. The "Trump to win 2024" contract is now trading around 52 cents, up from 48 cents just two days ago. This four-point jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for Tr...
2025-07-0603 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Buzzing with Activity on Politics, AI and GeopoliticsPrediction markets have been heating up over the past 48 hours, with a flurry of activity across major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The biggest headlines are still dominated by politics and geopolitics, but there were some surprising price movements that hint at growing uncertainty in places we hadn’t been watching as closely.Polymarket continues to lead with the most dollar volume traded. The "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024" market has surpassed 15 million dollars in volume and currently trades at 88 percent yes, up from 82 percent just three days ago. That bump seems to be driven by...
2025-07-0303 minPrediction Market NewsHere is a short headline based on the given information:
"Prediction Markets Buzzing Amid Political and Tech Volatility"Welcome back and thanks for joining. Over the past 48 hours, prediction markets have been buzzing with activity, driven mostly by political volatility and unexpected developments in tech regulation. Polymarket continues to lead the pack in terms of volume, with over 4.2 million dollars traded across its markets just this weekend. The most active remains the market predicting whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November. That market saw a sharp drop in confidence, falling from 79 cents to 63 in a 24-hour window following a weekend of renewed concerns about his polling numbers and growing speculation around a possible late replacement...
2025-07-0103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Shift Towards Trump 2024 Bid, Biden Dropout Concerns RisePrediction markets have become faster and more responsive in the past two days, with several top platforms showing sharp shifts that suggest new momentum in the world's most watched stories. On Polymarket, where traders bet in real time on everything from politics to pop culture, the U.S. presidential election remains dominant by volume. As of this morning, the market for "Trump to win 2024" is leading with over 12 million dollars in total wagers. The probability for a Trump victory stands at 58 percent, up three points from just two days ago. The Biden contract, meanwhile, dipped to 33 percent. That three percent...
2025-06-2903 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Roiled by Shifts in Politics, Tech, and Global ConflictIt has been an unusually active stretch on the prediction markets, with several major shifts reshaping expectations across politics, tech, and global conflict. Trading volumes surged on Polymarket in particular, where the top question by volume remains the U.S. presidential election, specifically whether Donald Trump will win in November. As of this morning, the market places Trump at 56 cents and Joe Biden trailing at 37, with third-party contingencies taking the rest. That represents a five-point gain for Trump over the past 48 hours, driven partly by a stronger-than-expected performance at a town hall event in Arizona and widespread media coverage of...
2025-06-2603 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Shift Amid Unexpected Developments in U.S. Politics and PolicyPrediction markets have been buzzing this week, and some unexpected moves over the past 48 hours have shifted sentiment in ways even seasoned watchers didn’t see coming. Among the leading platforms—Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus—activity remains high as traders and forecasters react to breaking political developments, tech news, and economic indicators.On Polymarket, the highest-volume contract by far remains the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" market, with over $25 million in total trading volume to date. Donald Trump leads slightly at 52 cents, while Joe Biden has slipped to 45 cents, down from 48 cents just three days ago. That m...
2025-04-2103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets See Surge in Activity Around U.S. Elections and Global ConflictsOver the past 48 hours, prediction markets have seen a flurry of activity, particularly around U.S. political developments and global conflict scenarios. Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus continue to lead the way in volume, but it's Polymarket that's currently dominating attention with highly liquid markets around the 2024 U.S. presidential election and geopolitical flashpoints.The most active market on Polymarket remains "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which surged past $10 million in volume. Despite ongoing legal challenges, the market is pricing a Trump nomination at 79 cents, up from 74 just three days ago. This 5-point jump seems to reflect...
2025-04-1803 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Swinging Sharply on Political, Geopolitical DevelopmentsIt’s been a lively few days in the world of prediction markets, with several major platforms—Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus—showing sharp movement in key political and geopolitical markets. As always, these markets offer a real-time snapshot of public sentiment mixed with probability, and right now, traders are rethinking more than a few major assumptions.One of the top-volume markets on Polymarket remains the 2024 U.S. presidential election, specifically the "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?" market. Over $6 million has now been traded, and in the last 48 hours the probability of Biden securing the nomination has fallen...
2025-04-1103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Signal Shifting Sentiment in US Politics and CryptoPrediction markets have had a lively couple of days, with surprising shifts across several platforms hinting at deeper undercurrents in politics, technology, and finance. The biggest story right now comes from Polymarket, where the “Trump to Win 2024 Presidential Election” market surged to 62 cents, up from 58 just two days ago. That four-point jump follows the news of President Joe Biden’s softer-than-expected debate showing and internal Democratic murmurs about potential replacement candidates. Interestingly, the Biden contract has slipped to 31 cents, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both seeing modest upticks in long-shot markets — though neither has topped 4 cents yet. It’s a signal t...
2025-04-0903 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Sizzle with Activity, Reflecting Shifting Uncertainty and Clarity Across Elections, Geopolitics, and Tech InnovationThe prediction markets never sleep, and over the past 48 hours, they’ve been unusually active, with some dramatic shifts suggesting growing uncertainty—or perhaps surprising clarity—in several hot-button areas. Right now, the highest-volume markets span elections, geopolitics, and tech innovation, particularly on Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. Each platform brings a distinct flavor, but all are reacting quickly to new information and speculation.Polymarket remains the clear leader in trading volume, and its election markets are buzzing. The “Will Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” contract leads the way, with over $10 million in volume. As of this morning, the price...
2025-03-3103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Reflect Shifting Sentiment on 2024 Election, Economic OutlookPrediction markets have been buzzing with activity over the past few days, with key markets seeing notable price swings and emerging trends offering insights into public sentiment and potential real-world outcomes. Across major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus, political and financial markets continue to dominate trading volume, with a few surprises keeping traders on their toes.Polymarket’s top market by volume remains the U.S. presidential election, where the probability of Donald Trump winning in 2024 has edged slightly higher to 56% after holding steady at 54% earlier in the week. This increase coincided with stronger-than-expected polling numbers in ke...
2025-03-2103 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Roiled by Shifting Sentiment on Elections, Fed RatesPrediction markets have been buzzing with activity this week, with several high-volume markets seeing dramatic shifts in sentiment. Across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus, traders are scrambling to reassess probabilities in the wake of new developments, particularly in politics and finance. One of the most notable moves has been in the U.S. presidential election markets. On Polymarket, Donald Trump’s odds of winning in November surged to 56%, up from 52% just two days prior. This jump followed a surprisingly strong fundraising haul and internal Republican polling suggesting growing support in key swing states. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s pric...
2025-03-1903 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Buzz with Activity Amid Political and Economic UncertaintyPrediction markets have been buzzing with activity over the past 48 hours, particularly as political and financial uncertainty stirs speculative trading. Right now, the biggest focus is on the U.S. presidential election, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events. On Polymarket, the Biden vs. Trump rematch continues pulling massive volume, with Biden's chances slipping to 38% from 41% earlier in the week, while Trump has climbed to 55%. PredictIt is showing a similar trend, though slightly more tempered, with Trump at 54% and Biden holding at 40%. These moves appear to be reacting to new polling data and recent economic indicators that could sway public sentiment...
2025-03-1003 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Volatile, Trump and Biden Odds Fluctuate, AI Advancement DebatedPrediction markets have been especially volatile in the past 48 hours, with major shifts in political, economic, and technology-related questions. On Polymarket, the top market by volume remains the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump’s probability of winning has bounced between 54% and 58%, while Joe Biden lingers around 37%. A slight dip in Trump’s odds overnight followed news of potential VP picks, as bettors reassess the electoral impact of his choices. Meanwhile, a wildly active market on PredictIt is tracking whether Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November. His odds of being replaced surged from 18% to 24% after another round of p...
2025-03-0703 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets React Rapidly to Evolving Political, Financial and AI DevelopmentsPrediction markets have been particularly volatile over the past couple of days as new information reshapes expectations on key political and financial events. On Polymarket, the most traded market remains the question of whether Donald Trump will be convicted in his New York trial. Over $50 million has been wagered, with the likelihood of a conviction surging past 75% before correcting back to around 68% following recent jury deliberations. This movement reflects uncertainty over how soon a verdict will be reached and whether the jury, despite strong prosecutorial arguments, will hesitate in convicting a former president. PredictIt, still a major player...
2025-03-0503 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets See Spikes in Trump 2024 Odds, Geopolitical Risks, and Crypto Regulation SpeculationPrediction markets have been particularly active this week, with several notable shifts across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. Most of the top markets by volume remain focused on U.S. politics, cryptocurrency regulations, and global conflict risks, but some unexpected movements have caught traders off guard.One of the most dramatic shifts has been in the U.S. presidential election markets. On Polymarket, Donald Trump’s probability of winning in 2024 surged from 49% to 55% in the past two days, driven largely by reports of deteriorating poll numbers for Joe Biden in key swing states. At the same time, Pr...
2025-03-0303 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Respond Rapidly to Breaking News Amid Shifting Expectations Across Politics, Finance, and SportsPrediction markets have been particularly active in the past few days, with some surprising shifts shaping expectations across politics, finance, and sports. Among the busiest platforms, Polymarket continues to lead in overall volume, with the U.S. presidential election dominating trade. PredictIt remains a hub for political betting, while Metaculus, though less about real-money speculation, has seen notable adjustments in long-term forecast probabilities.On Polymarket, the Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden race has seen significant movement. Trump had been leading in implied odds for weeks, hovering around 54-56%, but in the past 48 hours, Biden surged to 49% from a...
2025-02-2803 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction markets have experienced significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. Th...
2025-02-2603 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge: Emerging Trends and Regulatory Concerns**Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends**Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than mo...
2025-02-2403 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Manipulation Concerns**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction markets have experienced significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. Th...
2025-02-2102 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction markets surge amid shifting trends and manipulation concerns**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction markets have experienced significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. Th...
2025-02-1903 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction markets have experienced significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. Th...
2025-02-1702 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Evolving Trends, Regulatory Scrutiny**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Evolving Trends and Regulatory Scrutiny**Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher th...
2025-02-1403 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Surge Amid Evolving Trends and Regulatory Scrutiny**Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends**Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than mo...
2025-02-1203 minPrediction Market NewsPrediction Markets Reflect Shifting Trends in Politics, Economics, and Tech**Prediction Markets See Significant Activity Amid Shifting Trends**Prediction markets have experienced a surge in activity, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. Poly...
2025-02-1003 minAstral Codex Ten PodcastTry The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting ContestThis is normally when I would announce the winners of the 2024 forecasting contest, but there are some complications and Metaculus has asked me to wait until they get sorted out. But time doesn’t wait, and we have to get started on the new year’s forecasting contest to make sure there’s enough time for events to happen or not. That means the 2025 contest is now open! https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/subscrive-drive-25-free-unlocked
2025-02-1003 min
AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast38.7 - Anthony Aguirre on the Future of Life InstituteThe Future of Life Institute is one of the oldest and most prominant organizations in the AI existential safety space, working on such topics as the AI pause open letter and how the EU AI Act can be improved. Metaculus is one of the premier forecasting sites on the internet. Behind both of them lie one man: Anthony Aguirre, who I talk with in this episode. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast Transcript: https://axrp.net/episode/2025/02/09/episode-38_7-anthony-aguirre-future-of-life-institute.html FAR.AI: https://far.ai/
2025-02-0922 minPrediction Market NewsHeadline: Prediction Markets Surge Amid Manipulation Concerns and Shifting Trends**Prediction Markets Surge Amid Shifting Trends and Manipulation Concerns**Prediction markets have experienced significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus witnessing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours.**Top Markets by Volume:**1. **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. Th...
2025-02-0702 min