Shows
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 146: This Month's CPI Report - Not Getting to 2%It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportations.
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation...2025-07-1526 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 146: This Month's CPI Report - Not Getting to 2%It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportations.
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation...2025-07-1526 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation BounceThe Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to simple mathematics. This is a brief but important episode to set expectations for the...2025-07-1016 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation BounceThe Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to simple mathematics. This is a brief but important episode to set expectations for the...2025-07-1016 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 144: Socialism and InflationIf this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.
Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation.
NOTES
Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/mo...2025-06-2631 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 144: Socialism and InflationIf this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.
Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation.
NOTES
Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/mo...2025-06-2631 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 143: This Month’s CPI – Where Oh Where Have the Tariffs Gone?Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )
Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/
Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflation...2025-06-1128 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 143: This Month’s CPI – Where Oh Where Have the Tariffs Gone?Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )
Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/
Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflation...2025-06-1128 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT Falling (at Least, Not Yet)Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen...2025-05-1329 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT Falling (at Least, Not Yet)Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen...2025-05-1329 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic AdaptabilityFor a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply...2025-05-0233 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic AdaptabilityFor a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply...2025-05-0233 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi CoinToday's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money.
Please read the important disclaimer below.
NOTES
USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/
Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE
Michael C. Lovell and Robert...2025-04-1523 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi CoinToday's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money.
Please read the important disclaimer below.
NOTES
USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/
Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE
Michael C. Lovell and Robert...2025-04-1523 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation ClauseThe pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it...2025-03-2035 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation ClauseThe pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it...2025-03-2035 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable?Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything.
Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.)
NOTES
Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve...2025-02-2131 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable?Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything.
Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.)
NOTES
Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve...2025-02-2131 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 132: Crazy is Anti-InflationaryToday's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!)
NOTES
Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity:
Ep. 10: A H...2025-02-0519 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 132: Crazy is Anti-InflationaryToday's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!)
NOTES
Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity:
Ep. 10: A H...2025-02-0519 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't KnowIt seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support.
Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress.
The Inflation Guy in today's episode...2025-01-3040 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't KnowIt seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support.
Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress.
The Inflation Guy in today's episode...2025-01-3040 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2%Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications?
Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process.
Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so. Find...2025-01-2434 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2%Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications?
Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process.
Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so. Find...2025-01-2434 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 127: The Point of Inflation InflectionFor more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy.
That is changing.
Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation...2024-12-0330 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 127: The Point of Inflation InflectionFor more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy.
That is changing.
Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation...2024-12-0330 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 126: Firing Federal Workers is a Positive Supply ShockThis is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire, says the Inflation Guy (or he would say that, were he French) - firing Federal workers is a positive supply shock.
Listen, and find out...2024-11-2125 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 126: Firing Federal Workers is a Positive Supply ShockThis is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire, says the Inflation Guy (or he would say that, were he French) - firing Federal workers is a positive supply shock.
Listen, and find out...2024-11-2125 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump VictoryContrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th.
NOTES
Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist...2024-11-0740 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump VictoryContrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th.
NOTES
Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist...2024-11-0740 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-BooOne of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.
Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where...2024-10-1025 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-BooOne of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.
Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where...2024-10-1025 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris ClothierThe Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio.
Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast!
NOTES
David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. (https://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X )2024-09-2457 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris ClothierThe Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio.
Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast!
NOTES
David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. (https://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X )2024-09-2457 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 121: Real-Feel Inflation: Why Inflation FEELS Higher Than It IsA rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase...2024-09-1834 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 121: Real-Feel Inflation: Why Inflation FEELS Higher Than It IsA rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase...2024-09-1834 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 120: This Month's CPI Report - Down to the Big StickyIt's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode, the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's...2024-09-1120 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 120: This Month's CPI Report - Down to the Big StickyIt's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode, the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's...2024-09-1120 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 117: The Why Behind the Slide – and What it Means for InflationIn this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ )
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflatio...2024-08-0531 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 117: The Why Behind the Slide – and What it Means for InflationIn this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ )
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflatio...2024-08-0531 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 115: This Month's CPI Report - Closer to What We WantIt's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.
N...2024-07-1123 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 115: This Month's CPI Report - Closer to What We WantIt's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.
N...2024-07-1123 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and PromisesOn this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means.
Andy Fately, last heard from in Episode 66 of this podcast, is a veteran of more...2024-06-2158 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and PromisesOn this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means.
Andy Fately, last heard from in Episode 66 of this podcast, is a veteran of more...2024-06-2158 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 111: Until the Job is Almost DoneAt the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks.
NOTES
Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words
Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV
Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)
2024-06-0523 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 111: Until the Job is Almost DoneAt the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks.
NOTES
Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words
Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV
Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)
2024-06-0523 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and RealityThere are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize...2024-04-2636 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and RealityThere are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize...2024-04-2636 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 107: Those Ten Dangerous WordsWe don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.'
NOTES
Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark.
2024-04-1826 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 107: Those Ten Dangerous WordsWe don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.'
NOTES
Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark.
2024-04-1826 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony SituationOn this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
2024-04-1023 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony SituationOn this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
2024-04-1023 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 104: Inflation SnippetsEvery once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting...2024-03-2229 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 104: Inflation SnippetsEvery once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting...2024-03-2229 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 101: Live Long and Prosper with Inflation-Linked AnnuitiesThis somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.
The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to...2024-03-0137 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 101: Live Long and Prosper with Inflation-Linked AnnuitiesThis somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.
The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to...2024-03-0137 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 99: This Month’s CPI Report - UGH!Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blo...2024-02-1320 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 99: This Month’s CPI Report - UGH!Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blo...2024-02-1320 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade...2024-02-0824 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade...2024-02-0824 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better WayThe Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.
This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in...2024-02-0129 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better WayThe Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.
This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in...2024-02-0129 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 92: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Accounting for InflationThe notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who...2023-12-0635 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 92: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Accounting for InflationThe notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who...2023-12-0635 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition InflationIn this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins...2023-11-2930 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition InflationIn this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins...2023-11-2930 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?Sometimes, the episodes write themselves.
In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked.
But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)."
So, by the commutativity principle of podcasting (actually we just made that up), it follows that we should probably ask "Is it Time to Buy Gold?" So in this episode, the IG squares the circle and answers...2023-10-1818 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?Sometimes, the episodes write themselves.
In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked.
But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)."
So, by the commutativity principle of podcasting (actually we just made that up), it follows that we should probably ask "Is it Time to Buy Gold?" So in this episode, the IG squares the circle and answers...2023-10-1818 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 85: This Month’s CPI Report - The Hard Part Has BegunAnother month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks through the report with an eye to what happened, but more importantly what happens next. You will want to know why he thinks that the hard part...has just begun.
NOTES
Praxis Financial Publishing Q...2023-10-1225 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 85: This Month’s CPI Report - The Hard Part Has BegunAnother month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks through the report with an eye to what happened, but more importantly what happens next. You will want to know why he thinks that the hard part...has just begun.
NOTES
Praxis Financial Publishing Q...2023-10-1225 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 83: Inflation BookshelfSo often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight.
Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see the books in Amazon or other site.
[erratum - Inflation Guy in this episode refers to the author of Economics as Robert Samuelson. He obviously misspoke because no reasonably-educated economics student wouldn't know that Economics was...2023-09-2926 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 83: Inflation BookshelfSo often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight.
Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see the books in Amazon or other site.
[erratum - Inflation Guy in this episode refers to the author of Economics as Robert Samuelson. He obviously misspoke because no reasonably-educated economics student wouldn't know that Economics was...2023-09-2926 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 80: Hedonic Adjustment and Why You Shouldn’t Hate It“Hedonic adjustment” is a curse word among those who think that inflation figures are all scrubbed to look nice by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (if they are, the BLS did a pretty rotten job of it over the last couple of years!), but it is not nearly as sinister as you might think it is. In this episode, the Inflation Guy goes inside-baseball again to explain hedonic adjustment, and the offsetting effect that no one ever seems to complain about because it pushes inflation higher.
It's okay to hate inflation, but don't blame hedonic adjustment! Or the...2023-09-0724 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 80: Hedonic Adjustment and Why You Shouldn’t Hate It“Hedonic adjustment” is a curse word among those who think that inflation figures are all scrubbed to look nice by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (if they are, the BLS did a pretty rotten job of it over the last couple of years!), but it is not nearly as sinister as you might think it is. In this episode, the Inflation Guy goes inside-baseball again to explain hedonic adjustment, and the offsetting effect that no one ever seems to complain about because it pushes inflation higher.
It's okay to hate inflation, but don't blame hedonic adjustment! Or the...2023-09-0724 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 77: This Month’s CPI Report - Don’t Get Used to It!The US CPI was released today and was a modest positive surprise to expectations that were already pretty optimistic in the sense that economists (and the Inflation Guy) were expecting a low print. In this podcast, the IG breaks down the report and points out the very positive developments...along with some curious quirks that soften the miss.
But the big question is, what happens next? And here, the Inflation Guy is less sanguine. He gets specific about why, in this podcast. Tune in, and subscribe!
NOTES
Pod callback: “Inflation Folk Remedies”
Bl...2023-08-1026 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 77: This Month’s CPI Report - Don’t Get Used to It!The US CPI was released today and was a modest positive surprise to expectations that were already pretty optimistic in the sense that economists (and the Inflation Guy) were expecting a low print. In this podcast, the IG breaks down the report and points out the very positive developments...along with some curious quirks that soften the miss.
But the big question is, what happens next? And here, the Inflation Guy is less sanguine. He gets specific about why, in this podcast. Tune in, and subscribe!
NOTES
Pod callback: “Inflation Folk Remedies”
Bl...2023-08-1026 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 75: Where Are We in the Inflation Tale?Let's take a big step back. The Inflation Guy spends a lot of time in his podcasts talking about the current CPI figures and fairly short-term considerations. But economic episodes are like books, with rising action, a climax, and falling action - and bigger cycles are like book series (think Harry Potter). As we get closer to the end of this book, we need to think about how the next book advances the plot. The Inflation Guy talks through the current chapters, looks forward to the end of this book, and suggests what he thinks Book 2 will look like...2023-07-2728 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 75: Where Are We in the Inflation Tale?Let's take a big step back. The Inflation Guy spends a lot of time in his podcasts talking about the current CPI figures and fairly short-term considerations. But economic episodes are like books, with rising action, a climax, and falling action - and bigger cycles are like book series (think Harry Potter). As we get closer to the end of this book, we need to think about how the next book advances the plot. The Inflation Guy talks through the current chapters, looks forward to the end of this book, and suggests what he thinks Book 2 will look like...2023-07-2728 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 73: This Month’s CPI Report - the Longest JourneyIn the monthly analysis of the CPI report, the Inflation Guy reflects on an improving inflation picture while cautioning that it isn't improving quite as much as the surprisingly-awesome core and headline figures today suggested. There were two large outliers that likely won't repeat. That said, it is a positive-enough report that the Fed's presumptive rate hike expected later this month might be deferred.
Inflation continues to trend slowly lower, but only slowly - and although the longest journey begins with a single step there are a whole lot of steps ahead before we get to the 2...2023-07-1227 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 73: This Month’s CPI Report - the Longest JourneyIn the monthly analysis of the CPI report, the Inflation Guy reflects on an improving inflation picture while cautioning that it isn't improving quite as much as the surprisingly-awesome core and headline figures today suggested. There were two large outliers that likely won't repeat. That said, it is a positive-enough report that the Fed's presumptive rate hike expected later this month might be deferred.
Inflation continues to trend slowly lower, but only slowly - and although the longest journey begins with a single step there are a whole lot of steps ahead before we get to the 2...2023-07-1227 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?The Inflation Guy is often asked about the Chapwood Index, which is a non-governmental inflation index that is billed as a “true cost of living index, unlike CPI.” In what ways does this index achieve that goal, and where does it fall short? This episode also serves as another illustration of how the Inflation Guy can go off the rails even when given a simple assignment. Which is better, Chapwood or CPI? See what the Inflation Guy has to say about the matter.
Notes:
Price Stats (neé Billion Prices Project) https://www.pricestats.com/inflation-series?chart...2023-07-0532 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?The Inflation Guy is often asked about the Chapwood Index, which is a non-governmental inflation index that is billed as a “true cost of living index, unlike CPI.” In what ways does this index achieve that goal, and where does it fall short? This episode also serves as another illustration of how the Inflation Guy can go off the rails even when given a simple assignment. Which is better, Chapwood or CPI? See what the Inflation Guy has to say about the matter.
Notes:
Price Stats (neé Billion Prices Project) https://www.pricestats.com/inflation-series?chart...2023-07-0532 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 71: 5 Simple Ways an Endowment Can Improve its Inflation-Protection AllocationThe Inflation Guy shows a bit more focus in this episode of the podcast, aiming his comments squarely at endowment CIOs and the OCIOs that serve them. He discussed 5 simple ways that an endowment can improve its inflation-protection allocation. Take the test! If you're already doing all five, you are in the 99th percentile.
But if you're not - it's fixable!
NOTES:
“TIPS, the Dual Duration, and the Pension Plan,” Laurence B. Siegel & M. Barton Waring: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v60.n5.2656
“TIPS, the Triple Duration, and the OPEB L...2023-06-2924 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 71: 5 Simple Ways an Endowment Can Improve its Inflation-Protection AllocationThe Inflation Guy shows a bit more focus in this episode of the podcast, aiming his comments squarely at endowment CIOs and the OCIOs that serve them. He discussed 5 simple ways that an endowment can improve its inflation-protection allocation. Take the test! If you're already doing all five, you are in the 99th percentile.
But if you're not - it's fixable!
NOTES:
“TIPS, the Dual Duration, and the Pension Plan,” Laurence B. Siegel & M. Barton Waring: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v60.n5.2656
“TIPS, the Triple Duration, and the OPEB L...2023-06-2924 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 70: ’Greedflation’ - I See the ’Flation But is There Greed?In this episode, the Inflation Guy confronts the question of "Greedflation." What is it, and is it real? Is inflation all the fault of smelly capitalists? And what is the difference between the consumer's greed, wanting to pay less, and the company's greed, wanting you to pay more?
Corporate margins are expanding, along with higher inflation. Does that constitute prima facie evidence of greedflation? The Inflation Guy tackles this too, despite completely butchering the pronunciation of "prima facie." He also mentions the Illuminati. Really, you can't miss this episode.
NOTES
Good a...2023-06-2322 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 70: ’Greedflation’ - I See the ’Flation But is There Greed?In this episode, the Inflation Guy confronts the question of "Greedflation." What is it, and is it real? Is inflation all the fault of smelly capitalists? And what is the difference between the consumer's greed, wanting to pay less, and the company's greed, wanting you to pay more?
Corporate margins are expanding, along with higher inflation. Does that constitute prima facie evidence of greedflation? The Inflation Guy tackles this too, despite completely butchering the pronunciation of "prima facie." He also mentions the Illuminati. Really, you can't miss this episode.
NOTES
Good a...2023-06-2322 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp.68: Great Traders, and How the Inflation Guy Could Be WrongIn this episode, the Inflation Guy answers a question he is often asked: what makes a good trader? In listing what he thinks the four main attributes of a good trader are, he demonstrates one of them here by asking the question, "How could I be wrong?" and discusses how he would structure a position based on that assumption.
So, if you tuned in this week as one of the people thinking 'this guy is sooo wrong,' then this is the episode for you!
References in this episode:
"What if We’re Th...2023-06-0832 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp.68: Great Traders, and How the Inflation Guy Could Be WrongIn this episode, the Inflation Guy answers a question he is often asked: what makes a good trader? In listing what he thinks the four main attributes of a good trader are, he demonstrates one of them here by asking the question, "How could I be wrong?" and discusses how he would structure a position based on that assumption.
So, if you tuned in this week as one of the people thinking 'this guy is sooo wrong,' then this is the episode for you!
References in this episode:
"What if We’re Th...2023-06-0832 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 67: Three-point Goal? Or go for Two? (Percent)The Fed, along with most global central banks, considers 2% (or in that neighborhood) to be the definition of "price stability" that it aims for. Except that in the Fed's case, that 2% is on PCE (not CPI), and they only aim to hit that as an average over some (unstated) period of time.
However, even that is proving to be...somewhat difficult, leading to "murmurs" in some quarters that the Fed should change its target to 3% rather than 2%. For example, see this article in Reuters from May 24th: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/murmurs-grow-within-fed-about-tweaking-2-target-once-inflation-recedes-2023-05-24/ 2023-06-0125 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 66: De-dollarization - Should We Worry? with Andy FatelyThis week, the Inflation Guy brings another special guest on the set.
Andy Fately is a veteran of more than 40 years in the foreign exchange markets, trading spot, forwards and options as well as running businesses for major US and international commercial and investment banks. He is known as the FX Poet (https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/), but really focused on creating solutions for risk managers for problems as they arise.
Andy and the Inflation Guy tackle the question that naturally follows from headlines like these from earlier this year (links take you to the story):2023-05-1753 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 65: This Month’s CPI Report - Sing a New Song Unto the ’BoardThe Inflation Guy addresses this month's CPI report, which showed an above-expectations Core CPI number (by a little). However, the internals of the report were not too bad, and according to the Inflation Guy today's data turns out to be a really good one supporting the timing of the Federal Reserve Board's pivot from active-tightening to steady-policy. The months ahead, though, still are unlikely to deliver what the market is pricing in, setting up a denouement for later in the year. For today, however, sing a new song unto the 'Board!
2023-05-1018 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 63: A Bitter PillIn this episode, the Inflation Guy again tilts at windmills by ranting about recent comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to the effect that the reason inflation is remaining high is because normal people are not accepting that they are worse off, and therefore insist on arguing for higher wages rather than "taking their share" of the pain. Wow, he gets animated in this one. It's only Episode 63. What is the Inflation Guy going to be like when we get to Episode 100?
2023-04-2720 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 62: There’s Nothing Wrong With the Phillips Curve!It has become de rigeur in economics circles (word to the wise - always avoid such circles if you wish to retain your ability to think independently) to bemoan the death of the “Phillips Curve.” The Phillips Curve supposedly describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. "Supposedly”? In this succinct episode, the Inflation Guy explains why poor William Phillips' good name has been dragged through the mud unnecessarily. There is nothing wrong with his curve!
In this podcast, the Inflation Guy refers to a chart. It's hard to see charts on audio, so here is a link t...2023-04-2016 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 61: This Month’s CPI Report - Good, Not GreatWhen is a perfect forecast not a perfect forecast? When you got the reasons wrong. This ain't hurling hand grenades, where only the result matters - if you made a bunch of positive mistakes and a bunch of negative mistakes and they happen to offset, you're not a genius; you just got lucky. So today, Wall Street economists forecast 0.39% on Core CPI. That was exactly what they got. But for all the wrong reasons, and the reasons are important.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy (whose forecast wasn't even right, so who is he to judge?!) highlights...2023-04-1224 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 60: Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill PoutsiakaThe Inflation Guy doesn't understand why some people love to be the smartest person in the room. That's not fun at all! The Inflation Guy wants to be no better than the second-smartest, so he can always be learning. This is the first episode where he achieves this goal in a podcast format, with a real live guest who is deeply experienced in how insurance companies evaluate and address inflation risks.
Bill Poutsiaka is a senior financial services executive who has been a CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and board member for global insurance and asset management businesses...2023-04-0649 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 60: Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill PoutsiakaThe Inflation Guy doesn't understand why some people love to be the smartest person in the room. That's not fun at all! The Inflation Guy wants to be no better than the second-smartest, so he can always be learning. This is the first episode where he achieves this goal in a podcast format, with a real live guest who is deeply experienced in how insurance companies evaluate and address inflation risks.
Bill Poutsiaka is a senior financial services executive who has been a CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and board member for global insurance and asset management businesses...2023-04-0649 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 59: Delta - Not So ArcaneIn this episode, the Inflation Guy presents an introductory-level discussion of the concept of "delta," applying it to securities and explaining how the concept is used (in fairly plain English), but also applying it to exposures outside of the finance world. If you are someone who agreed with the tenor of a recent news article referring to the "arcane area of trading known as delta-hedging," you might find the Inflation Guy's perspective refreshing.
If you like this podcast, please be sure to 'like' us, forward the links to your friends, and talk about us often. And return...2023-03-3020 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 55: Models Gone BadGo ahead, click. You know you want to hear about "Models Gone Bad."
You might also hear about how some recent work the Inflation Guy has done is persuading him that he is also being too optimistic about the speed at which inflation will decelerate. And no one, at least recently, has accused the Inflation Guy of being optimistic about inflation.
2023-03-0230 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 49: Do Inflation Expectations Affect Inflation?In his never-ending quest to shine a light in the benighted economic darkness, the Inflation Guy today discusses a key component of the Fed's inflation models: consumer inflation expectations. Let's be fair, I think he leaned too much on Jeremy Rudd's paper in this one, but at least he delivered it with his inimitable Inflation Guy style. Listen, like, and recommend!
2023-01-2027 minCents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy PodcastEp. 47: New Year’s ResolutionsThe Inflation Guy has hopes and dreams too, you know. In this episode, the Inflation Guy muses about things he'd like to accomplish in 2023 - and also suggests some things that you, the listener, ought to resolve. Kinda presumptuous if you ask me, but they just pay me to write the summaries.
2023-01-0729 min