Shows
The Compound and FriendsTrump Is Winning His Trade War, Michael Cembalest on 20 Years Running Research at Jpmorgan, Earnings Reactions GaloreOn this TCAF Tuesday, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management joins Josh and Michael to mark the 20th anniversary of Eye on the Market, his influential research note that’s become must-read material for investors around the world. We’ll talk about some of the most memorable charts, boldest calls, and enduring themes from his archive—and what they can teach us about the markets today. Then at 01:10:08, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick!
This episode is sponsored by Public. Fund y...
2025-07-302h 10
Eye On The MarketDogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker
Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.
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2025-05-0126 minEye On The MarketRedactedStraight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
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2025-04-0213 minEye On The MarketFifty Days of Grey
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.
While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with...
2025-03-1218 minEye On The MarketHeliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appearSolar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy p...
2025-03-0419 minEye On The MarketFrom Here to EternityFrom Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones
Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
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2025-02-1310 minEye On The MarketInauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
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2025-01-2119 minEye On The MarketEye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
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2025-01-0136 minEye On The MarketThe Year of Living DangerouslyI was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
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2024-12-1016 minEye On The Market"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your storyA reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
2024-11-0620 minEye On The MarketThe Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound tradeFor participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.
2024-10-1714 minEye On The MarketMind the Gap: a historically polarized US election
Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.
2024-09-3029 minEye On The MarketA severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity marketNVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
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2024-09-0325 minEye On The MarketThere’s no place like homeA surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
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2024-08-2718 minEye On The MarketThe Lion in Winter
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
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2024-07-2316 minEye On The MarketThe Supreme Court vs the Regulatory StateThe Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
2024-07-0919 minEye On The MarketA Piece of the ActionInvesting in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
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2024-06-0609 minEye On The MarketAnimal FarmWith spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
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2024-05-1523 minEye On The MarketCicadian RhythmsCicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
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2024-04-2423 minEye On The MarketThe Good, the Bad and the UglyThe Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election.
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2024-04-0219 min
Center For Investment ExcellenceOrbiting the Paper Moon: A conversation on alternative investments with Michael CembalestWhile the 60/40 portfolio has seen a renewed focus, allocations to private markets continue to play an important role in diversification and growth. In this episode, David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, talks with Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, about the key insights featured in his biennial review of alternative investments, It's Mostly a Paper Moon.
2024-03-0734 minEye On The MarketElectravision
This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage.
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2024-03-0522 minThe Compound and FriendsMichael Cembalest ReturnsOn episode 129 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Michael Cembalest to discuss: antitrust and mag 7 stocks, the federal debt, the ultimate value trap, chip supply chains, the 2024 election, the long-term ramifications of Covid lockdowns, weight loss drugs, and much more!Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to Public.com and activate options trading by March 31st to lock in your lifetime rebate.Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com
2024-02-091h 45Eye On The MarketFive Easy Pieces
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
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2024-02-0819 min
Making SenseThe Global Economy in 2024: Trends and Surprises with Michael CembalestJoin host David Rawlings and Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, as they discuss the state of the global economy and outlook in 2024. Explore the possibility of a soft landing and market surprises. Dive into topics like the evolving role of regional banks, antitrust risks, global elections’ implications on markets and more.
Read Michael’s full outlook: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm/outlook
This episode was recorded on January 9, 2024.
This material was prepared by certain personnel o...
2024-01-2322 minEye On The MarketMedical ComplicationsThis Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
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2024-01-2311 minEye On The MarketOutlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten SurprisesA top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien
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2024-01-1715 minEye On The MarketOutlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats DominoesThe impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets.
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2024-01-1018 minEye On The MarketEye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook OverviewFalling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
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2024-01-0124 minEye On The MarketIt’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
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2023-12-0521 minEye On The MarketNot That 70’s ShowSix questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
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2023-11-1426 minEye On The MarketNew York, Just Like I Pictured ItComments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
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2023-10-1622 minEye On The MarketWhat was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real WorldI asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.
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2023-09-2617 min
Macro Mondays#13 - The Rasputin Effect - Guest: Michael Cembalest, J.P. MorganIs the U.S. labour market finally crashing? What will it take to kill the U.S. economy? We ask Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan who explains The Rasputin Effect. We also cover the outlook for fiscal policy, interest rates and the short- and longterm effects of the Chips Act and IRA in this great interview. And of course - we give our take on how to allocate given all of this.Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil MøllerGu...
2023-09-0337 minEye On The MarketThe Rasputin EffectGlobal resilience to higher rates
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2023-08-0220 minEye On The MarketMr. Toad’s Wild RideThe impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
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2023-07-1812 minThe Compound and FriendsMichael Cembalest Takes Us to SchoolOn episode 101 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Michael Cembalest to discuss the economy, AI stocks, the worst experiment in capital markets, the biggest risks to the market, the 2024 election, and much more! Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.This episode is sponsored by Horizon kinetics Medical ETF, which primarily invests in pharmaceuticals and biologics. To learn more, visit: https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Kinetics-Medical-ETF-1Q23.pdfCheck out the latest...
2023-07-141h 31Eye On The MarketLetters to the EditorComments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
2023-06-1416 minMaking SenseState of the Global Economy: A Conversation with Michael CembalestJoin host David Rawlings in a conversation with Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy of J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, as they analyze the latest economic trends, including the U.S. economy, deglobalization implications, currency diversification, decarbonization transition and more. Hear Michael’s insights on the opportunities and challenges in today’s dynamic global landscape.
This episode was recorded on May 31, 2023.
This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not...
2023-06-0822 minEye On The MarketToo Long at the FairTime to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
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2023-05-2309 minEye On The MarketThe Places We Could GoBefore getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.
2023-04-2516 minEye On The MarketFrankenstein’s MonsterFrankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
2023-04-1018 minEye On The MarketGrowing Pains: The Renewable Transition in AdolescenceRenewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.
Vie...
2023-03-2818 minEye On The MarketWinter HeatingThe large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.
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2023-02-2116 minEye On The MarketAmerican GothicThe Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it
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2023-01-2409 minEye On The MarketThe End of the AffairThe affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins
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2023-01-0226 minEye On The MarketHoliday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible TrainwreckHoliday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule
2022-12-0115 minEye On The MarketA CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 ThanksgivingIn the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P...
2022-11-0214 min
The Energy Impacts with David BlackmonEpisode 10: Michael Cembalest, Chief Investment Officer at JP Morgan Asset ManagementIn Episode 10 of The Energy Question With David Blackmon, David's special guest is Michael Cembalest, Chief Investment Officer at JP Morgan Asset Management. Every year, Michael creates and publishes a comprehensive report on the global energy space as a service to investors. This year's report is titled "The Elephants in the Room," a 49-page opus that provides an excellent overview of that is happening related to energy and the energy transition across the globe. The report is also publicly available and can be found at this link: htt...
2022-10-2433 minEye On The MarketRerunsReruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else
2022-10-1915 minEye On The MarketArrested DevelopmentArrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force
2022-09-2614 minEye On The MarketOn CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRSThree topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenu...
2022-09-0618 minEye On The MarketIndependence DaysTopics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry
2022-06-2718 min
The Breakdown with James LankfordEpisode 30: Opening Up US Energy with Michael CembalestEpisode 30: Opening Up US Energy with guest Michael Cembalest
2022-06-2437 minEye On The MarketThe Elephants in the Room: Part Four, WhydrogenHydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one
2022-06-1522 minEye On The MarketThe Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heatingFossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?
2022-05-2615 minEye On The MarketBear Market BarometersThe slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.
2022-05-1710 minEye On The MarketThe Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehiclesWe continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire
2022-05-1119 minEye On The MarketThe Elephants in the RoomWe start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration
2022-05-1118 minEye On The MarketSurveying the DamageSurveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin
2022-03-2215 minEye On The MarketChina and the Russian invasion of UkraineThe bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed ofte...
2022-03-0712 minEye On The MarketWebcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investorsListen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.
2022-03-0458 minEye On The MarketRisk unwind, supply chains and the UkraineTopics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers
2022-02-1515 minEye On The MarketMiddle AgesOn equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.
2021-12-0613 minEye On The MarketThe ThingSome things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
2021-11-1514 minEye On The MarketHelp Wanted“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy
2021-10-2015 minEye On The MarketDude, Where’s My StuffThe global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022
2021-09-2713 minEye On The MarketSpaccine hesitancyTopics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data
2021-08-1912 minEye On The MarketRed Med Redemption Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth
2021-07-2611 minEye On The MarketThy Brother’s KeeperCOVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
2021-07-1315 minEye On The MarketFood Fight: 2021 Private Equity UpdateEvery two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
2021-06-2813 minEye On The MarketFuture ShockAbsent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nucl...
2021-05-0523 minEye On The MarketAbsolute ValueBiden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.
2021-04-1413 minEye On The MarketInterest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estateIf long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.
2021-03-1515 minEye On The MarketVery short storiesShort stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.
2021-02-1819 minEye On The MarketHydraulic SpackingIn this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.
2021-02-0816 minEye On The MarketFear of FlyingEquity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.
2021-01-1918 minEye On The MarketOutlook 2021: The Hazmat RecoveryMichael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.
2021-01-0110 minEye On The MarketHoliday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our DiscontentThe belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.
2020-12-1414 minEye On The MarketThe Armageddonists, RevisitedThe Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th.
2020-11-1814 minEye On The MarketQuiet Flows the DonFor the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance).
2020-11-0914 minEye On The MarketBuckle UpThe problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.
2020-10-1312 minEye On The MarketElection 2020 - Praying for TimeThe election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
2020-09-3011 minEye On The MarketThe Needle and the Damage DoneThe cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.
2020-09-0420 minEye On The MarketCOVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17)US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.
2020-08-1712 minEye On The MarketCOVID Research: Charts of the WeekUS infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.
2020-07-2911 minEye On The MarketBlinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gapUS recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.
2020-07-0711 minEye On The MarketStargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy PaperWhile COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.
2020-06-2916 minEye On The MarketZoom RoomIn this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
2020-05-2615 minEye On The MarketReady or Not: The US prepares to reopenAn update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
2020-05-1113 minEye On The MarketCovid-19 UpdateMichael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.
2020-04-1708 minEye On The MarketMan vs NatureMichael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.
2020-03-3010 minEye On The MarketCOVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity marketsMichael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.
2020-03-2312 minEye On The MarketBerning ManAn update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.
2020-03-0520 minEye On The MarketMillions and TrillionsAnswers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
2020-02-0617 minEye On The MarketRotten TomatoesConsensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.
2020-01-1708 minEye On The MarketGhosts of Christmas PastMichael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
2020-01-0115 minEye On The MarketWar of the WorldsIn this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
2019-12-0411 min2019-11-0810 min
Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment IndustryMichael Cembalest – Eye on the MarketMichael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, a global industry leader with $2 trillion of client assets under management. Michael is also a member of the Investment Committee for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management and the Investment Committee for the J.P. Morgan Retirement Plan that covers the firm's 250,000 employees. Before taking on his current seat in 2012, he spent eight years as Chief Investment Officer of J.P. Morgan's powerhouse Global Private Bank. Prior to his work on the buy side, Michael worked on the sell side at J...
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