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Trend LineCheat sheet for federal election 2025With the federal election around the corner, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle give you everything you need to know before you speak with your friends, relatives and neighbours this weekend. Nik and Michael talk about the important difference between the popular vote and seat distribution, key battlegrounds to watch and the vulnerabilities faced by frontrunners Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre over the course of the campaign. HOST: Michael Stittle GUEST: Nik Nanos PRODUCER: Phil Hahn EDITOR: Mike Campoli2025-04-2518 minTrend LinePoilievre Conservatives 'rock solid' in Prairies, but Carney Liberals make 'massive' gains elsewhereWith just under four weeks left in the federal election campaign, Nanos Research ballot numbers have the Liberals leading in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives continue to dominate. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle get into what regions are driving the Liberal surge -- at the expense of not just the Conservatives, but the NDP and the Greens.They also discuss what Canadians feel about Poilievre's refusal to get security clearance -- an issue that has continued to dog him during the campaign. HOST: Michael StittleGUEST: Nik Nanos...2025-04-0126 minTrend LineDonald Trump the 'uninvited guest' for the upcoming Canadian electionThe campaign hasn't even started but the gloves are off with Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney hurling attack ads at each other, with the ballot question being who can best protect Canada against Donald Trump. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle look at the ballot numbers which have become so close it's a "toss up"; and they take a deeper look into the regions which show Liberals making some significant gains in seat projections, at the expense of the Conservatives. HOST: Michael StittleGUEST: Nik NanosPRODUCER: Phil HahnEDITOR: Mike...2025-03-1919 minTrend Line'Dead heat' between Liberals, Conservatives with Trump top of mind for CanadiansNew Nanos numbers show the federal Liberals enjoying a rebound in popular support at the expense of the Conservatives and NDP, amid simmering tensions with the U.S. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle also discuss how concern over Trump has jumped to the top issue of national concern, and what this reversal of fortunes between the Liberals and Conservatives says about the leadership of Pierre Poilievre. HOST: Michael StittleGUEST: Nik NanosPRODUCER: Phil HahnEDITOR: Dell Rasmussen2025-02-2614 minTrend LineConservatives hemorrhaging support to the LiberalsThe federal Conservatives have enjoyed a double-digit lead for around a year, but the latest ballot tracking from Nanos Research shows people have been shifting their support to the Liberals after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he's stepping down. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle look at how Trudeau's resignation, the Liberal leadership race and U.S. President Donald Trump pushing tariffs and threatening the annexation of Canada has forced Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to find a new strategy as an inevitable election nears. HOST: Michael StittleGUEST: Nik NanosPRODUCER: Phil...2025-02-1118 minTrend LineCanada has become Trump's 'punching bag'A majority of Canadians think their country's reputation on the international stage has tanked, and in fact the numbers are the worst they've ever been in Nanos Research tracking. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle also discuss the latest ballot numbers, and why the Liberals might have seen a slight bump in the past four weeks. HOST: Michael StittleGUEST: Nik NanosPRODUCER: Phil HahnEDITOR: Dell Rasmussen2025-01-2919 minTrend LinePoilievre's Conservatives still in majority territory: Nanos projectionsPierre Poilievre has been heavily criticizing the Liberals on cost-of-living issues, and the latest Nanos numbers show his Conservatives are still in strong majority territory. Host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss how Conservatives are making significant gains across the country, including in traditional Liberal strongholds in the Greater Toronto Area and British Columbia, according to Nanos seat projections. Meanwhile, the Liberal government's recent economic measures, such as the GST/HST holiday and $250 payments to low-income Canadians, have been poorly received by the public. And while economic uncertainty increases in Canada amid concerns about...2024-12-1127 minTrend Line‘It’s never good when seniors are angry’: Liberals’ rebate cheques draw backlashPrime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government rolls out a plan for tax relief and rebate cheques, but Nik Nanos calls it a ‘well-intentioned, epic failure.’ The exclusion of non-working seniors has prompted a swift backlash. The NDP tries to gain from the Liberals’ messy roll-out, as ballot tracking shows them close behind. Michael and Nik also discuss the latest provincial election result as premiers rush to get ahead of a possible federal election, and the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff threat. CREDITSHost: Michael StittleGuest: Nik NanosProducers...2024-11-2823 minTrend LineOnce again, 'it's the economy, stupid'What did Trump's win say about what voters were looking for, and what can Canadian politicians learn from the U.S. election? Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle talk about the issues we have in common with our American neighbours, and who's better positioned between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre as we head closer to our own election in 2025? HOST: Michael Stittle GUEST: Nik Nanos, Nanos Research PRODUCERS: Phil Hahn, Jesse Tahirali and Dell Rasmussen EDITOR: Jesse Tahirali2024-11-1217 minTrend LinePierre Poilievre's 'dream scenario'Welcome back to our first episode since we broke for the summer. We open the show with the latest Nanos ballot tracking in which the Conservatives have not only widened their lead, but something significant has happened between the Liberals and NDP. CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss what this could mean for the governing minority Liberals and the timing for the next election. Nik also goes region by region to share his latest seat projections -- how popular support for each party would translate into seats if an election were to be held...2024-10-0217 minTrend LineTrudeau Liberals 'under siege' with Conservatives cracking red 'fortresses' in Toronto and VancouverAfter a stunning Toronto byelection victory by the Conservatives, pollster Nik Nanos looks at what other ridings across the country -- currently in Liberal hands -- might be taken away by Pierre Poiliever's party if an election were held today. Nik and host Michael Stittle also discuss how Canadians are feeling right now about their economic future, and should things turn brighter before the next election, what that could mean politically for Justin Trudeau's leadership. This is our last episode before we break for the summer. Thank you for watching, and we'll be back in...2024-06-2823 minTrend LineConservatives still in driver's seat, but Liberals see a bumpWith a big test for the Liberals coming up later this month in a federal byelection, host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos talk about what the results need to be to ramp up -- or tamp down -- the conservation over Justin Trudeau's leadership. Nik and Michael also discuss a recent survey about how Canadians feel about who should lead the Liberals in the next election. And finally, will the Liberals be successful in making the capital gains tax into a wedge issue against the Conservatives? CREDITS: Host: Michael Stittle G...2024-06-1111 minTrend Line'Brutal' personal credibility numbers for both Trudeau and PoilievreCTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down the latest tracking data from Nanos Research that shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives continue to hold a double-digit lead over Justin Trudeau's Liberals. But a different Nanos survey that looks into the leaders' credibility in Canadians' eyes is hardly flattering for either. In fact, Nik says the results are quite 'brutal' for both Trudeau and Poilievre. Michael and Nik also react to the increasing combativeness and lack of decorum during question period in the House of Commons. Are the blows landing with Canadians or is the co...2024-05-2320 minTrend LineCurrent Liberal strategy is like 'palliative care'When it comes to Canadians' pocketbooks, pollster Nik Nanos says he hasn't seen this much pessimism in a very long time. Nik and Trend Line host Michael Stittle also discuss how Canadians are divided over the capital gains tax and its effect on investments, as well as how delaying the tax until end of June could result in a short-term windfall for the federal Liberals. Also, what do the Liberals have to do to reverse their negative trend line when it comes to popular support, and what do the Conservatives have to do to keep...2024-05-0818 minTrend LineAnger towards government at an all-time highPessimism and anger towards the federal government is at an all-time high, according to Nanos tracking. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss the challenge this poses for the Liberals in the lead-up to an election. Also, what are the major issues Canadians are worried about, and did the federal budget address them? CREDITS: Host: Michael Stittle Guest: Nik Nanos Producers: Phil Hahn, Patrick Rail Editor: Jesse Tahirali2024-04-1816 minTrend LineNanos tracking: Is a new trend emerging?After months of the Conservatives enjoying a clear advantage in popular support over the Liberals, the latest Nanos ballot tracking shows Pierre Poilievre's party went from a 20-point lead to a 12-point lead. Pollster Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle discuss possible reasons behind the Conservative drop, and what might Quebec have to do with it? Nik and Michael also discuss Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's war of words with the premiers over the carbon tax. CREDITS: HOST: Michael Stittle GUEST: Nik Nanos PRODUCERS: Phil Hahn, Pat...2024-04-0315 minTrend LineHow the NDP's trying to avoid getting 'crushed' in the next electionWill a soft NDP vote benefit the Liberals in the next federal election? Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss what the NDP is doing to differentiate itself from the Liberals, after two years of propping them up in Parliament. Also, why Liberal support might actually be higher than the national numbers indicate, and what the 'true' Conservative advantage is over the Liberals. And as Canadians pay their respects to late prime minister Brian Mulroney, Nik and Michael rewind to 1988 when the Progressive Conservative leader was seeking reelection. His party was trailing the Liberals in...2024-03-2113 minTrend LineLiberals in 'disaster territory' according to NanosCTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos look at new numbers showing the federal Conservatives have opened up a 20-point lead over the Liberals – will it hold up? Then, there was a federal byelection in Durham, Ont. Nik says the CPC victory was never in doubt, but we did learn something else that should be interesting to the Liberals. Also, there’s a federal budget on the horizon – Nik says it’s another chance for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to change the channel and stem the LPC polling slump. Finally, we have new data o...2024-03-0718 minTrend LinePoilievre's Conservatives expand support over Trudeau's Liberals as would-be voters' preferred partyPollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives increasing their support as the party Canadians would vote for, while the Liberals are in a statistical tie with the New Democrats. Poilievre's personal numbers continue to trend sharply upwards while his party saw a 17-point advantage over the federal Liberals in the new Nanos tracking. CREDITS: Host: Michael Stittle Guest: Nik Nanos Producers: Phil Hahn, Patrick Rail Editor: Jesse Tahirali2024-02-2116 minTrend Line'Holy moly guacamole'Whether it's the ballot number or seat projections, latest Nanos Research data shows the Conservatives would easily win a "clear majority" if an election were held today. Pollster Nik Nanos and Michael Stittle take a look at the growing gap between the federal Conservatives and Liberals, and the narrowing one between the Liberals and NDP. In a 'what's that about?' segment, Nik analyzes the Liberal attacks on a senior Conservative adviser and her links to the grocery sector. And Nanos Research has done a few surveys for CTV News that look into potential strains o...2024-02-0819 minTrend LineHousing, Trudeau's holiday optics and Trump wins another primaryCTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down new data on how Canadians feel about the country's housing crisis – the Bank of Canada indicated on Wednesday that interest rate cuts are coming, but what else do Canadians want decision-makers to do?Then, Michael and Nik take a look at the latest ballot tracking and new numbers for preferred prime minister. What to know? Nik says you should keep a close eye on the Liberal-NDP vote split.Also, Justin Trudeau is being criticized by some for his holiday vacation, Nik says that the optics ar...2024-01-2416 minTrend LineRecord lows in our moodTrend Line is back after a holiday break, and in this week's episode, CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down the latest the ballot numbers for the main federal parties – where do we stand at the start of the new year? Then, Nanos Research has been tracking the ‘Mood of Canada’ for nearly two decades. Nik shares the latest data on how Canadians feel about their government and country. Finally, Michael and Nik look ahead to some of the issues concerning Canadians that will be top of mind for political leaders as they return to Par...2024-01-1018 minTrend LineConservatives still 'comfortably' in majority territoryIt's time to look at Nanos Research's monthly seat projections. Once again, it's bad news for the federal Liberals if an election were held today, with Conservatives either projected to win or to put up a fight in key ridings that were Liberal wins in the 2021 election. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle do a region-by-region breakdown of these projections in our end-of-year episode. Then, they track how the parties have been trending on the ballot question, as well as the personal brands of their leaders, over the past year. Finally, how much are...2023-12-1318 minTrend LineWith Liberals and NDP now tied, Conservatives are under more scrutinyPollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss ballot numbers we haven't seen for a long time -- we're talking since Michael Ignatieff was Liberal leader. What does this mean moving forward for the federal parties? For the Conservatives, is there a price to be paid for doing this well in public opinion, with an election still more than a year (maybe) down the line? And as the fortunes of the NDP begin to rise, what do you do if you're Jagmeet Singh? CREDITS: Host: Michael Stittle Guest: Nik...2023-11-3016 minTrend LineLiberal brand weaker now than when Trudeau became leader: NanosIt's been months of headlines touting tanking polling numbers for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and climbing support for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. But what does a long-term look at party standings show? And, is it too late for the trend lines to turn around? In the latest episode of CTV's Trend Line, Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle dig in to the "Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada." It offers a composite picture of various public opinion metrics, from the national ballot, to which party Canadians would consider voting for, as well as t...2023-11-1616 minTrend LineTrudeau's carbon tax reversal comes as Nanos polling shows Liberal Party is in troubleCTV News' Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos break down how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s reversal on a carbon tax for home heating oil in Atlantic Canada is already causing political blowback in the rest of the country – where does the federal government go from here? Then, we've got the latest ballot tracking data showing the Conservative Party continues to enjoy a significant advantage over the Liberal Party. Nik explains how that translates into seat projections and which areas pose the greatest challenge for the Trudeau government. Finally, there's fresh data showing that Cana...2023-11-0212 minTrend Line'We're not back': Canada's fumbling of key international relationsAfter months of foreign relations turbulence, CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss Canada's international reputation and look at recent surveys from Nanos Research –- which has good and bad news for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government. In 2015, Trudeau declared to the world that Canada was 'back,' but it's been a bumpy road for his government lately. Nik gives his take on how the prime minister has handled challenges with India, the Nazi scandal in Parliament, as well as what role Canada could play when it comes to major events like th...2023-10-1916 minTrend LineConservatives in majority territory, Liberals in 'trouble'Nik Nanos has his latest ballot numbers as the Liberals see an erosion in federal support, both for the party and for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal brand. Nik and host Michael Stittle then get into Nanos Research’s latest seat projections – how do the ballot numbers translate into actual seats in the House of Commons if an election were to be held today? And some history in the making in Canada – the election of the first ever Black speaker of the House of Commons, and the election of the first ever First Nations premier...2023-10-0421 minTrend LineConservatives keep their summer lead while NDP sees bump in ballot trackingWe're back from our summer break and pollster Nik Nanos has the latest on where the federal parties – and their leaders -- stand after a 'roller coaster' of a summer. Nik and host Michael Stittle also talk about how Canadians are feeling about the plans to bring in more immigrants to Canada, especially in light of the current housing crunch. And make sure to tune in to our next episode when Nik will talk about his latest seat projections. That will be available on Oct. 4 CREDITS: Michael Stittle (host) Nik...2023-09-2009 minTrend LineSeat projections, David Johnston, and spotlight on the environmentPollster Nik Nanos has his latest House seat projections and he takes us region by region to give us a national picture of how the federal parties are doing. Nik and host Michael Stittle then discuss a new Nanos survey for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, about how Canadians feel about special rapporteur David Johnston and whether they're happy with a formal inquiry into foreign interference. The findings might surprise you. And with swaths of the country engulfed in wildfires and smoke, Michael and Nik put a spotlight on the environment -- which...2023-06-0716 minTrend LineCould public hearings be more damaging to the Liberals than an inquiry?Host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down Special Rapporteur David Johnston's decision not to recommend a public inquiry into foreign election interference.Nik and Michael also look at the latest polling in the upcoming Alberta provincial election, where several key ridings in Calgary could decide whether NDP Leader Rachel Notley or UCP Leader Danielle Smith emerge victorious.Then, moving on to Toronto's upcoming mayoral election, Nik explains the challenges for pollsters to quantify candidate support in municipal elections -- and why polling numbers for candidates with greater name recognition might be inflated.2023-05-2417 minTrend LineCanada-China relations; and the latest federal seat projectionsWe're in a tense diplomatic showdown with China. Again. And new Nanos numbers show just how tense things are when it comes to how Canadians feel about our relationship with China. Host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos also discuss Nanos Research's latest federal ballot numbers, as well as new seat projections that show one of the major parties down everywhere in the country, except Quebec.2023-05-1015 minTrend LineFederal strike like 'Christmas' for Poilievre and ConservativesThe PSAC strike is 'Christmas' politically for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, says pollster Nik Nanos. But what of the New Democrats? Nik and host Michael Stittle discuss that and the latest on the House committee inquiry on foreign interference in our elections, as well as debate over the Liberal government's gun control bill. Nik also discusses a top issue on Canadians' minds -- clean energy, and how a certain European country wants to work closely with us and become a strong energy partner. But is Canada ready to take advantage of this opportunity? 2023-04-2620 minTrend LineNo 'budget bounce' for Liberals in latest Nanos pollingIt’s been two weeks since the federal budget and a visit from U.S. President Joe Biden -- enough time to track any movement in Liberal support. Did Trudeau's Liberals get a boost in public opinion? Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle also give a primer on Katie Telford, the chief of staff to the prime minister, as she prepares to appear before a House committee studying allegations that China meddled in our last two federal elections. And what will the Conservatives and NDP be looking for in her testimony? Nik also gives us t...2023-04-1216 minTrend LinePoilievre surpasses Trudeau when it comes to preferred PMThe federal Liberals are trending negatively on three key measures while Pierre Poilievre has surpassed Justin Trudeau when it comes to the question of who Canadians would prefer now as prime minister, according to Nanos Research. Host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss the troubling polling for the Liberals, and whether the federal budget and recent visit from U.S. President Joe Biden might boost the party's numbers.2023-03-2915 minTrend LinePoilievre says 'Canada seems broken' and survey finds many Canadians agreeCan the Liberals turn things around with a strong budget, and just how 'broken' are we? Do Canadians feel their country is as "broken" as Pierre Poilievre says it is? Listen to pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss a new Nanos Research survey on how we're feeling about our country and our major institutions. While Liberal support shot up with health care in the spotlight last month, there's been an opposite trend happening over the last four weeks. Nik and Michael discuss what might be driving that, as well as how the personal bra...2023-03-1514 minTrend LineConservatives have upper hand in latest Nanos seat projectionsThe Liberals and Conservatives have been neck-and-neck and trading leads over the past year when it comes to ballot support. But what does it look like when you project their current ballot support to actual seats in the House of Commons? More simply, if an election were to be held today, who’d win? Pollster Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle discuss Nanos’ latest seat projections, as well as an election that’s actually around the corner, in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith is hoping to get a strong mandate for her United Conserv...2023-03-0114 minTrend LineTrudeau Liberals, Poilievre Conservatives in a 'dead heat' as health care concerns soarWith the federal health-care funding deal prominently in the headlines and concern over the state of health care towering over other issues of national concern for Canadians, Liberals seem to be enjoying a corresponding bounce in ballot support and are in a dead-heat with the Conservatives. Pollster Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle discuss the latest ballot numbers and how the acrimony in Parliament makes it seem like there'll be an election sooner than you might think. Meanwhile, many Canadians continue to feel the pain financially, with a recent Nanos poll showing a...2023-02-1517 minTrend LineConservatives open up 7-point advantage over LiberalsThe New Year has begun with "grim" numbers for the Liberals, according to pollster Nik Nanos on our first show of 2023. Not only is the 7% Conservative lead now outside the margin of error, but with the NDP also up, the Liberals are getting squeezed on both sides. Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been attacking the Liberals on health care, saying it’s "worse than ever" after seven years of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But although Conservative support may be up, Poilievre isn't doing quite as well when it comes to his personal brand. Finally, Nik an...2023-01-1818 minTrend Line2023 predictions for Trudeau, Poilievre and the other federal leadersIn our final episode of 2022, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss the major federal parties – what moved the needle for them this year, and what do they have to look forward to in the New Year? Trend Line will return in the New Year on January 18. 2022-12-1414 minTrend LineBig political hot potatoAfter weeks of 'Freedom Convoy' organizers airing their views at the Emergencies Act inquiry, how did the headlines impact ballot support for the Liberals and Conservatives, in light of Justin Trudeau's appearance before the inquiry and Pierre Poilievre being an early supporter of the protests? Pollster Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle also discuss the now double leadership team helming the Green Party, and what they have to do to build support among Canadian voters. We then head West, where Premier Danielle Smith has been busy, launching a new bill in an attempt t...2022-11-3020 minTrend Line'Awkward diplomacy'Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese President Xi Jinping met briefly on the sidelines of the G20 summit, a meeting which could hardly be described as cordial. Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle discuss the tense exchange and the body language -- which spoke volumes -- between the two leaders. From chilly relations abroad to frosty relations at home -- the federal government and some of the provinces just can't seem to get along, with the recent failure of Canada's health ministers to reach a deal on health care. In Ontario, Nik d...2022-11-1617 minTrend LineIt's 'Christmas time' for Pierre PoilievreNanos Research asks Canadians a very simple question on the regular: are your personal finances worse, better or the same? You probably know the answer, but pollster Nik Nanos explains how the most recent response to his survey broke a 14-year record. And not in a good way. Nik and host Michael Stittle also discuss the continuing reverberations from the "Freedom Convoy" protests as the national inquiry into the government's use of the Emergencies Act continues. And how a seemingly no-win situation for the Liberals in their handling of inflation and cost of living has been like "Ch...2022-11-0216 minTrend LineIt's a horse race between Poilievre and Trudeau on preferred PMNanos Research asks Canadians every week who they prefer as prime minister of the country. Right now, Pierre Poilievre and Justin Trudeau are neck and neck. Pollster Nik Nanos breaks down why, and dives deeper into what qualities both leaders have that appeal to Canadians. (The result, as Nik puts it, is 'ugh'.) Nik and CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle also discuss the growing movement against the federation with Danielle Smith's recent victory in Alberta. And we're revealing the results of a new Nanos survey showing a large number of Canadians would still wear masks on planes and tr...2022-10-1915 minTrend LineNew seat projection shows Conservatives gaining strength in OntarioWith a majority win for Francois Legault's CAQ in Quebec and one for Doug Ford's PCs earlier this year, that's two of Canada's most populous provinces where provincial Liberals have been steamrolled. Pollster Nik Nanos and CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle discuss what this could mean for the federation. You don't want to miss Nik's latest seat projections, which show Conservative support is strengthening in key battlegrounds and which ridings that were awash in Liberal red in the last election are now too close to call. And it's been 5 years since Jagmeet Singh became leader of th...2022-10-0517 minTrend LineNanos tracking shows trouble for Trudeau amid Poilievre's QP debutWe're back from summer break, and pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Pierre Poilievre's question period debut in the House of Commons and the image he's trying to portray. Nik also breaks down the latest ballot numbers with the leading Conservatives and resurgent NDP putting the squeeze on the Liberals.2022-09-2119 minTrend LineConservatives ahead in new ballot tracking: Nanos says that's "bad news for the Liberals"Conservatives are ‘in the driver’s seat’ with a five percentage-point lead over the Liberals in the latest ballot tracking from Nanos Research. Pollster Nik Nanos and CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle discuss what’s driving the Liberals’ sinking numbers. Also, in Quebec, Premier Francois Legault has made waves with his controversial Bill 96, with a provincial election on the horizon. Finally, the U.S. midterms are approaching – could the Democrats lose control of one or both houses? We're taking a summer break, but we'll be back in August.2022-06-2222 minTrend LineKeep an eye on Leslyn LewisYou might have missed it but the prime minister this week gave an emphatic 'no' to the question of whether he'd fulfill a promise to replace our first past the post electoral system with proportional representation. So what does he want instead? Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle get into that. Also, why is Leslyn Lewis one to keep a close eye on in the Conservative leadership race? We also take a close look at Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Ontario Premier Doug: a study in contrasts that conservatives really should be paying attention t...2022-06-0818 minTrend Line'Crushing' victory for Ford; what it means for federal politics; and really Ontarians, a 43% turnout?We have a special episode of Trend Line focusing on the fallout from the Ontario provincial election. Nik Nanos' numbers for CTV News and CP24 leading up to the eleciton were spot on, capturing that Ford's PCs were on their way to a convincing majority. If you're a federal political party, what do you take away from Ford's victory? Nik and host Michael Stittle discuss that and more on this episode.2022-06-0314 minTrend LinePoilievre's launching attacks on the Canadian establishment -- here's whyWith his attack on the Bank of Canada, Pierre Poilievre further positioned himself as the 'anti-establishment' Conservative leadership candidate. CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss Poilievre's strategy, and how it's working for him as we're in an environment where 8 out of 10 Canadians are worried about a potential recession. We've also got the latest analysis from the Ontario election campaign, and how the Liberal brand may be gaining traction, but their ballot numbers remain flat. Finally, what to make of Vladimir Putin's 80%+ approval rate? Nik breaks that down. 2022-05-1117 minTrend LineConservatives have a 'statistically significant' lead; and another convoy's rolling up to OttawaCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss yet another convoy heading to downtown Ottawa this weekend, this time on motorcycles. How do Canadians feel about the seemingly growing trend of convoy protests? Also, Nik breaks down how the Conservatives have opened up a lead over the governing Liberals, despite being technically leaderless. We've also got some exclusive numbers from New Brunswick, after the People's Alliance party closed up shop. Finally, what does Elon Musks's takeover of Twitter mean for political speech in Canada?2022-04-2715 minTrend LineNo post-budget honeymoon bump in support for LiberalsCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss why the federal Liberals aren't seeing any bump in support following the release of the 2022 federal budget. Also, Nik breaks down why the heated battle brewing between Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest is turning into a fight for the "heart and soul" of the Conservative party. Finally, is populism dead? Far from, according to Nik's issue tracking and poll results so far in the French election. 2022-04-1317 minTrend LineA 'big risk' for Jagmeet Singh in the Liberal-NDP dealCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss whether the NDP made a catastrophic mistake by making a deal with the Liberals. Also, Nik breaks down Alberta Premier Jason Kenney's musings about the private sector. Finally, do Canadians want our government to boost defence spending to help NATO? Nik explains.2022-03-3017 minTrend LineWhy free speech and freedom are now top national issues of concernCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss why 'free speech' and 'freedom' have risen to the top of unprompted issues of concern in Canada. Also, Nik breaks down whether the surging price of oil and the political windfall accompanying it are enough to boost Alberta Premier Jason Kenney's popularity. Finally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Canada’s Parliament this week and was very direct in what he wants: He wants Canada to back a no-fly zone over Ukraine. How's the Trudeau government handling it? Nik explains.2022-03-1619 minTrend LineCanadians more likely to support sanctions than a 'hot war' with RussiaCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss how Canadians generally feel about responding to crises like what's happening in Ukraine, and how our leaders are responding. Nik also breaks down how the provinces seem to be racing to relax COVID-19 restrictions. Finally, U.S. President Joe Biden gave his State of the Union speech. Will it help boost the president's bleak approval numbers? Nik explains.2022-03-0224 minTrend LinePeople's Party sees increase in Canadians who'd consider voting for themCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss a 'course correction' for the Conservatives over their messaging around the convoy protests, and how the People's Party of Canada has seen an increase in potential support. Also, Nik breaks down how Ontario Premier Doug Ford seems to have struck a balance in his approach to the protests. Finally, if it's revealed a big chunk of money funding the protests comes from abroad, how will that influence the Liberals' message moving forward? Nik explains.2022-02-1626 minTrend LineWhy the problem for the Conservatives goes deeper than Erin O'TooleCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss why the problem for the Conservative Party of Canada runs deeper than Erin O'Toole. Also, Nik breaks down how Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is handling the protests in his province. Finally, what does this all have to do with Donald Trump? Nik explains.2022-02-0220 minTrend Line'More of the same' messaging from Liberals affecting ballot support: NanosCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss federal ballot support, provincial elections and U.S. politics. See more stats from Nanos Research at www.nanos.co. 2022-01-2019 minTrend LineDespite positive pitch from feds, Canadians concerned about paying the billsCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss a survey that shows two out of every three Canadians are worried about meeting their financial obligations as the cost of living creeps upward. It's also our year-in-review episode! Nik weighs in on some of the predictions he made this year and goes party by party to see what the federal political landscape will look like in 2022. Thanks for watching! The show is on hiatus until January 2022.2021-12-1523 minTrend LineThe 'cocktail of pessimism' affecting our feelings about a prosperous futureCTV News' Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss Canadians' feelings on the standard of living for future generations. Also, Nik discusses why the Ontario NDP may be disappointed by some recent survey numbers ahead of the coming provincial election. Finally, Nik discusses Canadians' perceptions on the health threat posed by Americans amid global concern around the Omicron coronavirus variant.2021-12-0115 minTrend LineNanos: We're seeing a 'full-on assault' on O'Toole's leadershipCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the status of the opposition parties ahead of Parliament's return next week, including how Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole is faring amid challenges from within his own party. And as representatives from the U.S. and Canada are set to meet, what do the two countries have in common? Nik breaks it down for us with ten years of accumulated data.2021-11-1719 minTrend LinePost-election honeymoon? Not so much. And how the Liberals are 'doubling down on the environmental file'CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss some surprises in the latest federal tracking numbers and whether Alta. Premier Jason Kenney is in political trouble. Also, with the COP26 summit ongoing, how do Canadians feel about taking drastic action on climate change? Nik explains some of his recent polling. This episode used a survey from Innovative Research Group, you can find more details here: https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CTM2109-AB-Report-Release-1-1.pdf2021-11-0415 minTrend LineCoronavirus no longer the #1 issue of concern for Canadians / When we might get a hint at Trudeau's plans for his futureCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss how the environment has moved ahead of the coronavirus as the top unprompted issue of concern for Canadians. What does that mean for the Canadian political landscape? Nik weighs in. Also, how long will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stay on as leader of the Liberal Party? For Nik, there could be some signals sprinkled throughout the upcoming speech from the throne. Trend Line is back on our regular publishing schedule. You can find us wherever you get your podcasts every two weeks.2021-10-0513 minTrend LineNik on the election results, where each party stands and why Annamie Paul was 'stabbed in the front'CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos do a recap of the polling from the 2021 federal election and dive into where each party now stands. Nik weighs in on whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should have delivered a different speech on election night, where the Conservatives go from here and what the Green Party should do after the resignation of Annamie Paul. Trend Line will return on Tuesday, Oct. 5.2021-09-2915 minTrend LineThe final numbers and what to watch for tonightCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos break down the final poll numbers of the campaign and discuss what to look for tonight, when you're watching the results come in on the live special CTV NEWS: ELECTION 2021. 2021-09-2010 minTrend LineNanos: Looking at a Liberal win, will it be a majority?CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the daily tracking numbers and the possible outcome of the Sept. 20 election. Will it be a majority for the Liberals? That's "not out of the realm of possibility," according to Nik. Also, what do the party leaders need to do going into the final weekend? Nik weighs in with what we should watch out for.2021-09-1713 minTrend LineRegional breakdown shows PPC as 'potential spoiler': NanosCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the daily numbers and take a closer look at a regional breakdown of party support. As Nik explains, the numbers show the race tightening between the Liberals and Conservatives across the country, with the exception of the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal, where the Liberals hold a lead. CTVNews.ca election night sneak peek: For those looking for the map mentioned on the show, here's the link: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2019/results-map Please note that this version of the map currently...2021-09-1510 minTrend LinePreferred PM drop for Singh, a sign of NDP decline?CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the daily tracking numbers and if a decline in support for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as the preferred prime minister indicates a drop in overall support may be coming. Also, Nik takes us through what he expects from each party as we enter the final week of the campaign.2021-09-1316 minTrend LineDebate breakdown / The impact of PPC, NDP supportSept. 10: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the English-language leaders' debate and how each candidate performed. Also, should the Conservatives and Liberals be concerned about vote splits? Nik looks at how support for the NDP and PPC could determine which party forms the next government.2021-09-1013 minTrend LineProtesters 'punching above their weight'Sept. 8: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the nightly tracking numbers and if the protests at some Liberal campaign events have had an impact. Also, Nik looks ahead to the two official debates and what each candidate needs to do to shift momentum in their favour.2021-09-0815 minTrend LineO'Toole 'definitely’ has the advantage / 'Tick tock' for the LiberalsCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the nightly tracking numbers and how they now show a definite advantage for Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole. Is it too late for the Liberals to turn things around? Also, Nik discusses a new survey that asked Canadians whether they felt this election was necessary.2021-09-0309 minTrend LinePoor economic numbers could 'grind on the Liberals'Sept. 1: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss how the recent economic numbers could affect the campaign. Also, Nik shares his most surprising takeaway from a survey of residents in the Greater Toronto Area.2021-09-0111 minTrend LineTight race in the seat count / Will the NDP have a 'breakout moment'?Aug. 30: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the daily numbers and dive into the current seat count projection ("It's basically a rocket for the Conservatives"). Also, will the NDP have a breakout moment during the debates? Nik discusses in his breakdown of the NDP trend line so far.2021-08-3008 minTrend LineThe gender divide: Examining the 'striking' division in ballot support between men, womenAug. 27: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the latest poll numbers ("an absolute dead heat") and whether there has been a change in the preferred prime minister numbers. Then, Nik breaks down party ballot support along gender lines. What he sees from the numbers is a "striking" difference between female and male support for the progressive parties and the Conservatives.2021-08-2710 minTrend LineCan O'Toole 'hold on' amid health care attacks?Aug. 25: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the latest tracking numbers: are the results from today a one-off or is there a trend emerging? Also, with the NDP numbers dipping slightly, is there something the party can do to stop its support from shifting to the Liberals? Finally, Nik looks ahead to the coming school year and whether that will have an impact on the campaign.2021-08-2508 minTrend LineO'Toole's big jump in preferred PM numbersAug. 23: CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the Nanos Daily Tracking Numbers that show the federal election race is in a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. Nik also dives into a big takeaway from the preferred PM numbers: Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole has had a big jump from just a couple of weeks ago. 2021-08-2306 minTrend LineWhy housing is a hot topic right nowCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos dive into why housing is here to stay as a key issue on the campaign trail. Also, what's in an image? In politics, a lot. See Nik break down each party leader and the image they're trying to portray in the early days of the election.2021-08-2011 minTrend LineWhy running on their pandemic record wasn't enough for the Liberals in N.S.On this episode of Trend Line… CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the implications of the Nova Scotia election results on the federal campaign before diving into some of the issues (vaccines, the economy, Afghanistan) that could define the national political race.2021-08-1809 minTrend LineA 'glimmer' at the election menu / Nik and Michael kick off another campaignCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos kick off another campaign with an election edition of Trend Line. The show will publish every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to keep you up to date on all the latest news and polling. Make sure to tune in.2021-08-1618 minTrend LineWhy mail-in ballots might be exciting this yearOn this episode of Trend Line… CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss where Canada stands on vaccine passports as travel options start to open up around the world. Also, with the prospect of an increased number of mail-in ballots being cast in a potential federal election, is there a party that stands to benefit? Nik weighs in. Plus, the latest on the Green Party and where the Conservatives stand in the West.2021-07-2924 minTrend LineThe 'challengers' episode / Why the Liberals might be "overpriced"CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos take a look at where each federal opposition leader stands going into a potential election later in the year. It's the challengers episode! (Complete with summer homework assignments.) Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole will need to perform a balancing act between keeping his party united in the West and gaining some additional seats in Ontario. While NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will need to take advantage of some of the goodwill he's earned from Canadians. Listen to the show for all the rest. Finally, in our 'Upshot' segment...2021-07-1521 minTrend LineWill the gov't get a Stanley Cup bump? And Catherine McKenna's legacyOn this week's episode of Trend Line: Nik shares his insights into how large sporting events can be associated with a positive surge in the polls for incumbent governments. Will he or won't he? We're talking about Mark Carney, of course! Nik breaks down the potential political ambitions of the former banker. Catherine McKenna has announced she is stepping back from politics. Michael and Nik discuss the legacy she'll leave in the Five Minutes of Politics segment. And there's a couple of changes when it comes to national issues of concern for Canadians: the deficit is...2021-07-0124 minTrend LineTrudeau trying to look like a 'player on the scene', a thaw in opinions on the U.S. borderOn this week's episode… Green Party Leader Annamie Paul faces political infighting – how can she move forward on the national stage? Nik's recommendation: focus on what the party is known for. And prime ministers often go on international tours, but is there something to read into Justin Trudeau's recent trip to the G7 and NATO summits? Finally, a recent Nanos survey shows how Canadians feel about sending vaccinated children back to school with unvaccinated children. Is this conversation going to prompt a larger discussion about vaccine passports in the country? That's all...2021-06-1715 minTrend LineCOVID-19 vaccination: Do you believe PM Trudeau's September target?CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss whether Canadians believe Prime Minister Trudeau when he says everyone in the country will have access to a COVID-19 vaccine by September. Also, a report card of sorts is out: How do the feds and provinces rank on their coronavirus responses? Spoiler: there's room for everyone to improve. A programming note from the Trend Line team: Michael Stittle will be off for the next few months. We'll be back with CTVNews.ca online politics producer Rachel Aiello.2021-02-1118 minTrend LineRegional anger and the fringe in Canada + our border to the south with Michael KerginCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss what could be behind Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's preferred PM bump and the impact of regional anger on today's federal politics. Also, former ambassador to the United States Michael Kergin joins the show to discus the new Biden administration, the prolonged border closure and what a change in the White House means for Canada's relationship with China. This episode was recorded on Jan. 27, 2021.2021-01-2826 minTrend LineNik ranks 2020 on the Trend Line 'fist pump' scaleTrend Line takes a look back on 12 months that nobody could have predicted. CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the year that was, whether anyone emerged as a political winner amid the pandemic, and revisit some prophetic analysis. Also, what's coming up in 2021? Tariff announcements, maybe. Hopefully they'll come during regular business hours.2020-12-1121 minTrend LineCanada's vaccine strategy: mismanaged or just badly communicated?CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research's Nik Nanos discuss the potential political fallout over the Liberal government's vaccine messaging, and if there's a divide emerging between various federal and provincial conservative parties. Also, Nik highlights some tracking numbers that show the federal NDP and Greens picking up support.2020-11-2718 minTrend LineFour more years? Trump's already musing about a 2024 rematch with BidenCTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos discuss the preliminary results of the U.S. election and how different polling methodologies performed in predicting who would come out ahead. Also, what happens when various public health officials aren’t using the same playbook? Nik weighs in on the potential impact.2020-11-1324 minTrend LineWhere polls went wrong in 2016 and what that means in 2020It's election season! CTVNews.ca's Michael Stittle and Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos get you up to speed with a U.S. election night primer: what you need to watch for and the critical different between national and state polling. Also, Nik and Michael discuss what the outcomes of two federal byelections and several provincial campaigns means for a potential general election call. It’s Trend Line time! 2020-10-3019 minTrend LinePandemic pressures taking a toll on Canadians’ mental healthCTVNews.ca’s Michael Stittle and Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos discuss how Canadians’ concerns about COVID-19 are surging again as Canada experiences a second wave of the virus; what the selection of Annamie Paul as Green Party leader will mean for federal politics; and Nik weighs in on why Joe Biden's lead may not be so comfortably large as the polls would have you believe.2020-10-1621 minTrend LinePotential paralysis on U.S. election nightCTVNews.ca’s Michael Stittle and Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos discuss how U.S. President Donald Trump could be trying to “devalue” mail-in ballots ahead of the upcoming election. Also, Nik gives an update on the national ballot tracking numbers and discusses whether provincial governments are taking a gamble by holding elections during a pandemic. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, September 30th. 2020-10-0218 min
WalkLeft, the PodcastBrain FoodBil Antoniou and Michael Stittle talk about being playwrights and directors of their two scripts, We Say Such Terrible Things and Fail Safe, respectively. Continue reading →2015-02-2700 min