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Nathaniel Stoltz
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#168 – The Butterfly Effect | Directed by Eric Bress and J. Mackye Gruber (with DeVaughn Taylor of Specter Cinema Club and The Pod and the Pendulum)
Tune in as DeVaughn Taylor (Specter Cinema Club, The Pod and the Pendulum) teams up with Arthur to break down The Butterfly Effect, the 2004 sci-fi timey-wimey thriller that follows college student Evan Treborn on his zigzagging quest to travel through time and give himself and his loved ones the happiest lives possible. The 2000s-era ways in which this deals with surprisingly dark material, the outrageously evil depiction of one Tommy Miller, and the extra details of the director’s cut and the alternate endings comprise some of the topics for this episode. Directed by Er...
2024-08-07
2h 15
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E22: Pitchers On The Move
One major theme of the A's minor league system's August has been the widespread promotion of pitchers from one level to the next, especially in the teams' starting rotations. With only a few weeks remaining in the 2023 minor league season, I look at fourteen recently-promoted pitchers across the system and discuss what led to each of them getting the call, how their early returns in their new assignments have gone, and where their recent developments put them in the A's organization's pitching picture down the stretch and looking ahead to 2024.
2023-09-01
2h 59
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E21: 2023 A’s System Q&A #2
In the second Q&A episode of the 2023 minor league season, I fielded sixteen questions about different topics across the A's system (and beyond), ranging from macro topics such as putting the organization's starting pitching and top position players in context, to anticipating key offseason events like the Rule 5 Draft and Arizona Fall League, to discussing the progress of several specific players at different levels and stages of performance.
2023-08-22
2h 52
Cards & Categories
Ep. 6 : NL MVP Race, Bowman Chrome, Dynasty Value Gainers
In our sixth episode, we open with discussion on Luke Raley's unlikely homer in Oracle Park, Cedric Mullins' fantastic Sunday in Seattle, and whether we should start stashing other players for the NL MVP Topps Chrome buyback. We also rant on our frustrations with Bowman Chrome (26:24) through the lens of Topps' latest release strategies and cover the latest card release – 2023 Topps Archives Signature Series, Retired Player Edition. Then we talk about players to target in dynasty/keeper leagues as their stocks have risen and should hold or go up (50:03).You can find us on twitter (X) at @cardscategories, @mc...
2023-08-17
1h 34
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E20: Talking All Things Broadcasting and Lansing Baseball With Jesse Goldberg-Strassler
This week's episode is an Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast first: a chat with someone else, namely Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the tremendous lead broadcaster of the A's organization's High-A affiliate in Lansing. Jesse was incredibly generous to take a full podcast's worth of time out to talk with me about a wide range of subjects delving into both on- and off-field aspects of minor league baseball. We spend the first 1:10 or so of the conversation focusing on various aspects of broadcasting and the role folks in Jesse's position play in shaping our understanding of what goes on with the...
2023-08-07
2h 46
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E19: Demystifying the DSL A’s
Following last week's breakdown of the players and trends from the A's Arizona Complex League affiliate, this week examines the other A's Rookie-level team, that of the Dominican Summer League. I discuss the team's overall performance from a number of angles and put it in conversation with A's organizational trends at the Rookie levels and the development of international players specifically, then discuss the skillsets and underlying talents fourteen different DSL players are showing early in their pro careers.
2023-08-03
2h 28
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E18: The Arizona Inflection Point
The final week of July finds the Athletics' Arizona Complex League affiliate in a time of transition. When this episode was recorded (on July 24), the organization's 2023 draftees had yet to make their professional debuts, but it was clear they were imminent, and they indeed began playing the following day. While we wait on the early results of the draft class, I wanted to spend an episode examining the players who have been playing for the ACL team over the previous seven weeks; next week, I'll be focusing on the organization's other Rookie-level players, those in the Dominican Summer League...
2023-07-28
2h 47
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E17: State of the A’s System, Midseason 2023
In this jam-packed midseason special, it's time to take stock of where things stand as a whole in the A's system as we prepare for an influx of new talent into the organization via the draft. Assessing exactly where Oakland's or any specific MLB organization's minor league system stacks up relative to their competition is a challenging task, but I attempt to do so in several ways, both looking at the system as a whole and many interesting (and surprising!) trends within it. The episode is divided into three sections: In the first section (starting...
2023-07-14
3h 01
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E16: Looking for Lansing Breakouts and Deflating the Las Vegas Environment
This week, I conclude my recent rundown of notable developments at the full-season affiliates in the A's system. In the first half of the show, I examine the factors that led to Jonny Butler's June breakout that saw him recently promoted to Midland, then look at five talented Lansing players looking to follow suit and conquer the High-A level more fully. In the second half, I turn to the complicated issue of analyzing the position players at Triple-A Las Vegas in a way that removes the inflation provided by the Aviators' extremely hitter-friendly home park and the Pacific Coast...
2023-07-06
2h 29
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E15: An Organizational Shift? Updates from Midland and Lansing
This week's episode provides updates on a number of notable Midland RockHounds before turning to discuss a collection of Lansing pitchers. How are each of Midland's top four offensive prospects faring, and what does each need to do to cement their progress through the Double-A level? What's behind the recent success of Joey Estes and Ryan Cusick on Texas League mounds, and what do Blake Beers and Jack Perkins need to do to reach similar heights there? What separates Jacob Watters' and Joelvis Del Rosario's impressive stuff from attaining equally impressive results? How legitimate is Tyler Baum's recent success...
2023-06-30
2h 32
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E14: Inexperience Begets Intrigue
The podcast is back after a week off, and on this week's episode, I detail the numbers and tools behind the excitement generated by eight relatively inexperienced A's prospects, ranging from Lansing down to the ACL team. Who leads Oakland's 2019 draft class in career ERA, and why have you probably not heard of him? What's behind Henry Bolte's surge of production over the past several weeks? Now that he's finally healthy and competing in Stockton, how does Gunnar Hoglund look? Has a new candidate for the best non-Mason Miller fastball in the organization suddenly emerged from nowhere? These are...
2023-06-21
2h 03
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E13: Previewing the ACL & DSL A’s
This week's episode offers an in-depth look at the two Rookie-level affiliates in the A's system, laying out some overall themes to watch for at the Rookie level while also giving some information and scouting notes on many key players on these two rosters.
2023-06-07
2h 02
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E12: An International Conundrum
A longtime weak point in the A's organization has been the signing and development of international talent; since the days of Miguel Tejada, the organization has not only had very few of its own international signees rise to prominence in Oakland, but also a relative dearth of strong organizational players from that origin. This episode examines the past, present, and future of the A's efforts in this area. What are the challenges specific to success with international talent in general? How have the A's tried to address these challenges, and what might be behind the trouble they've...
2023-06-01
2h 55
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E11: Promotion Season Begins
As the minor league season progresses into its middle half, the amount of player movement in the A's system continues to increase. But as standouts at each level get promoted to the next, how can we try to understand whose dominance will carry over to higher-level challenges? I spend the first half of this week's show walking through my own prospect analysis journey—in general at first, but narrowing to this topic in particular—and then the second half applies my theoretical framework to eight specific recent promotees in the A's system, two at each of the four full-season leve...
2023-05-24
2h 03
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E10: There’s Nothing Mid About Midland
This week's episode offers a comprehensive look at the exciting Midland roster a little over a month into the season. I dissect the data put up by nine of the RockHounds' position players and put it in the contexts of their individual skillsets and developmental arcs, then run through a quick (by my standards, anyway) rundown of the velocities and general stuff profiles of each of the team's fifteen pitchers in Midland's most recent series.
2023-05-16
2h 48
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E9: 2023 A’s System Q&A #1
It's the first Q&A episode of the 2023 season! I tackle a wide range of over a dozen questions in this episode, ranging from big questions about recent A's draft classes, the upcoming Rule 5/40-man picture, and areas to emphasize in future trades, to the specifics of players like Brett Harris, Darell Hernaiz, Luis Medina, and Cody Thomas. As usual, I bring in as much data and dimensions as I can to give the clearest possible picture of each of these areas of uncertainty.
2023-05-09
2h 22
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E8: How’s That Draft Looking?
One month into the 2023 minor league season, we can finally start to get some perspective on the talents of the A's 2022 draft class. How have they fared thus far in their first full seasons, and what approaches underlie their successes and/or struggles? In this episode, I detail how each of the A's top nine 2022 draftees are performing by looking through my exclusive charting data and tying it in with their larger performance histories.
2023-05-02
2h 06
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E7: The Midland Pitching Hope
In the season previews, I posited that Midland had the most important rotation to watch among those of the A's four minor league affiliates. Even with Mason Miller's quick ascension from the Texas League to the majors, the remaining quintet of RockHounds starters remains the most-hyped group of hurlers in a pitching-needy organization, so it's thus quite organizationally important to check in on how their fortunes are beginning to unfold in 2023. Fresh off watching and charting every pitch of their most recent series, I dive into the particulars of the performance and skill indicators of each of Midland's five...
2023-04-26
1h 11
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E6: First Impressions!
The 2023 minor league season is underway and there are no shortage of first impressions to dissect. But we all know the peril of small sample size in baseball, so which first impressions are truly meaningful? In this episode, I discuss how I make those sorts of determinations and how they follow from an overall philosophy of prospect evaluation. I then turn to discussing seven A's minor leaguers whose early-season form particularly piqued my interest.
2023-04-19
1h 21
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E5: Previewing the Stockton Ports
The A's minor league affiliate season preview series concludes with a look at Low-A Stockton. Can the 30 players on this team's Opening Day roster turn around rough 2022 fortunes? Who out of the fresh faces in this group are most likely to contribute? I examine everyone from the team's top prospects to—in particular detail!—its veteran relievers, dissecting what each player brings and what challenges lie ahead for them at this key developmental level.
2023-04-09
2h 04
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E4: Previewing the Lansing Lugnuts
The A's minor league season preview series continues with a look at the 29 players breaking camp with Oakland's High-A affiliate, examining each player individually, but also putting them in context within position groups and the larger A's organization.
2023-04-07
2h 13
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E3: Previewing the Midland RockHounds
The team preview series continues with a look at Oakland's Double-A affiliate, with examinations of the team's 30 players as individuals and how they stack up collectively and thematically.
2023-04-06
1h 58
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E2: Previewing the Las Vegas Aviators
With the 2023 Aviators season set to begin, this episode discusses each of the 28 players who made the team's Opening Day roster, dissecting their skillsets and noting areas where improvement would be particularly encouraging. I also discuss how the team might differ from last year's Las Vegas squad and what some of the A's roster decisions here indicate about where things stand with the group of minor leaguers closest to making their major league debuts.
2023-03-31
1h 25
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
S2E1: Previewing The Previews
The podcast is back for the A's 2023 minor league season! With minor league rosters set to come out in a few days, this first episode of the season offers a reset and some perspective on themes to track as players get sent to affiliates and the season gets going.
2023-03-29
1h 20
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 15: 1/3 of the Way to Sidd Finch
This week's episode features a quantitative analysis of the early returns on Daniel Susac's plate approach, a first look at the mindblowing full-season debut of one flamethrower and an attempt to piece together the incomplete season of another, and...me getting very worked up about a 28-year-old nobody has ever paid any attention to. Or have they? Timestamps: 0:00—Intro 4:53—Las Vegas 58:46—Midland 1:43:06—Lansing 2:11:27—Stockton
2022-09-11
2h 36
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 14: Video Game Numbers
This week's episode features deep dives into the complexities of Las Vegas' youngest player, Midland's steadiest offensive performer, the Oakland organization's leader in strikeouts, and a dominant start for a member of the A's 2022 draft class. Timestamps: 0:00—Intro 3:42—Las Vegas 42:41—Midland 1:13:59—Lansing 1:51:32—Stockton
2022-09-06
2h 14
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 13: ACL & DSL A’s Review/Q&A #2
In this special episode of the show, I take a look at the 2022 seasons of both of Oakland's rookie ball teams and answer a diverse array of questions submitted by listeners about the A's system. Timestamps: 0:00—Intro 3:21—ACL A's Review 52:23—DSL A's Review 1:23:18—Q&A
2022-09-03
2h 29
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 12: The Moment of Perceived Menace
This week, I examine four players who played their first professional games in 2021, including three prominent 2021 A's draftees. I take a lengthy look at what Zack Gelof has shown in Midland this season and what his next steps might be, detail how CJ Rodriguez and Grant Holman's first full seasons have gone, discuss Will Simoneit's prospects for being the next A's org catcher to ascend to the Coliseum, and catch you up on everything else going on in the Oakland organization. Timestamps: 0:00—Intro 9:40—Las Vegas 40:54—Midland 1:27:25—Lansing 1:58:00—Stockton
2022-08-26
2h 29
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 11: Very Initial Pictures
Following a bounceback week for the A's system after a significant roster restructuring, I take a look at four players who are new either to the A's organization or to health. What's behind David MacKinnon's incredible Triple-A performance, and can it translate to the majors? How do J.T. Ginn and Jorge Juan look after returning from lengthy injury layoffs? And is ninth-rounder Caeden Trenkle, fresh off hitting .400 in his first full-season series, already looking like a steal in the 2022 draft? I answer those questions in addition to going over the other developments in the Oakland system this past week. ...
2022-08-20
2h 13
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 10: We’re Going Very Canadian
This week, I give my first impression of Ken Waldichuk after his acquisition in the blockbuster Frankie Montas trade (and a few thoughts on the trade in general). I also detail the immense potential of Denzel Clarke, spotlight two potential breakout candidates, and bring you up to speed on everything else going on in the Oakland minor league system. Timestamps: 0:00—Intro (w/Montas trade discussion & draftee promotion discussion) 15:49—Las Vegas 47:52—Midland 1:04:00—Lansing 1:48:01—Stockton
2022-08-12
2h 23
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 9: The Old College Try
In this episode, recorded under 48 hours before the trade deadline, I detail where the A's consensus top two prospects stand as they reach particular inflection points. I also take a deep dive into Charles Hall's unique backstory and almost-as-unique arsenal and explore the under-the-radar intrigue of Grant Judkins.
2022-08-06
2h 58
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 8: McCann’s Mashing & Junior’s Jump
In this episode, I get into the mechanical improvements of Junior Perez, the statistical improvements of Kyle McCann, the sudden success of Jake Walkinshaw, and a first look at the newly-acquired Cal Stevenson. I also do the first ever Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast Q&A, touching on a wide variety of A's & MiLB topics! 4:10—Las Vegas 28:41—Midland 59:42—Lansing 1:21:22—Stockton 1:58:10—Q&A
2022-07-24
2h 50
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 7: It’s Part of a Process
It was a successful couple of weeks for the A's affiliates recently, despite a rash of injuries. In this episode, I discuss the development of Oakland's newest MLB hitter, chronicle the improvements of a former first-round pick, and examine the promise of the organization's two youngest full-season pitchers. Timestamps: 3:47—Las Vegas 27:37—Midland 58:15—Lansing 1:31:34—Stockton
2022-07-15
1h 53
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 6: The Midseason State of the A’s System
In conjunction with the Top 50 A's Prospects list I published at the site this week, in this special episode, I review where things stand in the Oakland minor league system at the midpoint of the 2022 season. How good is the system overall? What are its strengths and weaknesses? Who have been the system's biggest risers and fallers so far this year? And what players have the most riding on their second-half performance? I go through these various issues and others in my usual excessive detail.
2022-07-12
2h 15
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 5: Completely Avoiding the 80s
This week, I explore the unique and fascinating layer cake that is Hogan Harris' profile, detail some promising adjustments from Lawrence Butler, analyze Garrett Acton's initial Statcast data, emphasize the superlative nature of Shane McGuire's approach at the plate, and bring you up to speed on everything else that's been going on in the A's minor league system.
2022-06-29
1h 54
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 4: The Audacity To Wear Batting Gloves
Is Adrian Martinez ready for a spot in the A's rotation? Where did Max Schuemann come from, and now that he's here, what's he all about? Now that we're two months into his 2022 resurrection, what can we conclude about Austin Beck's approach? And why should we get to know the name Yehizon Sanchez? I answer these questions and recap the week that was in the A's system.
2022-06-15
2h 04
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 3: Jared Koenig & Rookie Ball Get Started
I get you prepared for Jared Koenig's first start as an Oakland Athletic by detailing his incredible backstory, pitch profile, and prospects for success. I also discuss the interesting evolution of Jeff Criswell's arsenal over the past two years, Max Muncy's successful first full professional season, and why we shouldn't dismiss JJ Schwarz's chances to stand in a major league batter's box one day. Finally, in a bonus segment, I preview the rosters of Oakland's ACL and DSL teams and talk about the challenges of evaluating players at the Rookie level.
2022-06-08
2h 10
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 2: Convert Everyone To Catcher!
I talk about the excitement generated by the debuts of Jonah Bride and Blake Beers at their new levels, Jordan Diaz's hot May and the extremes of his profile, and promising signs from toolsy outfielder Pedro Pineda.
2022-06-01
1h 21
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 0: An Explainer
What is this show? Who am I? What am I doing here?
2022-05-26
17 min
The Excessive Prospect Analysis Podcast
Episode 1: The New Number 1
I get the podcast started by offering a different perspective on Oakland's rebuild, the organization's new #1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, two finesse artists pitching well in Double-A, and two possible low-minors breakouts.
2022-05-26
1h 15
FanGraphs Audio
FanGraphs Audio: Nathaniel Stoltz, Live from Winston-Salem
Episode 436 Nathaniel Stoltz is a very thoughtful prospect writer for FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He’s also the guest on this edition of the podcast, recorded live on tape from Dave Cameron’s house in Winston-Salem, NC. Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other […]
2014-03-30
43 min
The Lance Rinker Show
The Lance Rinker Show airs M-F 12-2pm (EST) on Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL). The focus of the show is coverage of the Baltimore Orioles, Baltimore Ravens, and University of Maryland Terrapins. The guests were: John Perrotto, USA Today Sports / Sports on Earth / Baseball America Jason Butt, Baltimore Beatdown & Nathaniel Stoltz, FanGraphs @BmoreSportsLife @LanceMRinker
2013-12-19
2h 00
FanGraphs Audio
FanGraphs Audio: Nathaniel Stoltz, Digested
Episode 402 Nathaniel Stoltz is a very thoughtful prospect writer for FanGraphs et al. He’s also the guest on this terribly pleasant edition of FanGraphs Audio. Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things. Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min […]
2013-11-21
48 min
FanGraphs Audio
FanGraphs Audio: Nathaniel Stoltz, All Up on Prospects
Episode 387 Nathaniel Stoltz is a prospect writer for FanGraphs. He’s also the guest on this very compelling edition of FanGraphs Audio. Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things. Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)
2013-10-10
58 min