Shows
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed ChairRenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed appointments, and ACA subsidies will shape 2026 policy risk. Just in time for the Holiday's, RenMac unveils its swag store, supporting a great caus...
2025-11-2842 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked NightsRenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain as Washington heads into Thanksgiving.
2025-11-2139 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) TensionsRenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.
2025-11-1440 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be GoodRenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momentum markets, Pavlick tracks Trump’s Asia trade push, rare earth strategy, and the prolonged D.C. shutdown and Dutta warns that slowing incomes and housing could test consumer confidence as markets bet on “just the right amount of wrong.”
2025-10-3153 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bubble BandwagonsRenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkmanship ahead of his Asia trip, the politics of aprolonged shutdown, and what to watch in global negotiations as markets juggle seasonality, sentiment, and softening data.
2025-10-2431 minRenMacRenMac Off-Script: Shooting The HostagesRenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid geopolitical tension and market froth.
2025-10-1741 minRenMacRenMac Legends Podcast with Michelle MeyerNeil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk about consumer trends and what's driving the recent strength, the benefits of large private sector data sets given the data fog due to the government shutdown, and a get into a bit of a back and forth on housing as well.Michelle was a former colleague of mine at Bank of America Merrill Lynch under Ethan Harris and then ran...
2025-10-1641 min
RiskReversal PodNeil Dutta on Housing, The Consumer & AI Fueled GrowthGuy Adami and Dan Nathan host Neil Dutta, partner and Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, on the RiskReversal Podcast. Neil shares his career journey, his time at NYU, and his experience working with David Rosenberg and Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch. The conversation covers current economic issues including the US housing market recession, labor market dynamics, and the impact of restrictive monetary policy. Neil also discusses the significant investment in AI and its potential to boost GDP growth. The discussion touches on the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation over employment, the global interest rate environment, and...
2025-08-1539 min
Masters in BusinessRenMac's Head of Economics Neil Dutta on Recession IndicatorsBarry speaks with Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. Neil leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. They discuss in initial interest in economic studies and whether we'll see a recession in 2025. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2025-07-181h 06
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside PredictionsRenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.
2025-07-0426 min
Odd LotsLots More on Why Neil Dutta Is Sticking With His Recession CallOn Wednesday, President Trump put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for every country except China. The market, which had been in a state of deep panic, surged massively on the announcement. But then on Thursday, stocks sold off hard again as people woke up to the reality of massive tariffs on China and the new baseline tariffs on everyone else. Plus, even before all this tariff drama, there were plenty of reasons to be anxious about the US economy. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research. He explains all the...
2025-04-1112 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Policy UncertaintyRenmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.
2025-02-2826 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMsJeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.
2025-01-0327 min
The Bull of Wall Street#2 - Neil Dutta (recorded 11/25/24)Neil Dutta, Head of Economics and Partner, Renaissance Macro Research, discusses why the normal economic analysis was so wrong and his cautiousness at the moment with employment looking a bit soft. Jim and Talley suggest that this bull market has room to run with Neil providing insight into the Treasury secretary pick and the animal spirits investors are showing as the result of the Trump victory. If you are interested in what’s shaping the economy right now don’t miss this one!
2024-11-261h 09
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-RateJeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward
2024-11-0825 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: China TurnsNeil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
2024-09-2719 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk ThruWith Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
2024-08-3017 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch?RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, and why the first two weeks of July suggest strong seasonality from a historical standpoint.
2024-06-2819 minOdd LotsLots More With Neil Dutta on a Looming Fed Policy ErrorNeil Dutta, the top economist over at Renaissance Macro, has generally been sunny and optimistic about the economy over the last four years or so. But now he's warning of a possible mistake by the Federal Reserve. In his view, the central bank is waiting too long to get confirmation that inflation is coming back to target. Meanwhile, unemployment is starting to creep up in a meaningful way. As he sees it, if you're still worried about upside risk to inflation at this point, you need to have a theory about where that inflation is going to come from — an...
2024-06-2824 min
Emotional Balance Sheet with Paul FennerNeil Dutta – How Mainstream Media Mis-shapes Your View About the EconomyWhat does the mainstream media get wrong in their economy and stock market coverage? How much does the economy influence the stock market and vice versa? Neil Dutta, a noted business economist from Renaissance Macro Research and father of 1 plus twins, takes us on a journey into investment advice's economics and shattering stereotypes mainstream media dishes out. Neil will debunk the myth of the 'doomer' in investment circles and offers a fresh perspective on current economic conditions, including inflation and the labor market. My conversation goal with Neil is to help you not ac...
2024-04-1153 min
Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu VargheseTalking About the Resilient Economy with Neil Dutta (Ep. 78)"Inflation is on a glide path lower." Neil Dutta from RenMac LLC shares his thoughts with us today on Facts vs Feelings, offering a fresh perspective on the current economic landscape. Despite a rocky start in January, there's a sense of optimism in the air.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group discuss economic insights with Neil Dutta, Head of Economics, RenMac LLC. Neil challenges the consensus on slowing economic growth and dismisses long and variable lags in monetary policy. The trio also explores...
2024-03-2753 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script Podcast: TikTok TradeNeil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and Canada, and why soft retail sales may not derail the overall solid US consumer story.
2024-03-1522 min
Beyond the Benchmark by EFGEP 89: When will the Fed start cutting with Neil Dutta | 15th February 2024As the US economy eyes a soft landing with inflationary pressures easing, Moz talks to Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research about when the Fed will be cutting rates.Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Neil Dutta, Partner, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro Research https://www.renmac.com/neil-dutta/EFGAM:https://www.newcapital.com/Important disclaimersThe value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and...
2024-02-2141 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: No-mentumRenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are a better buy now or later.
2024-02-1622 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: How Much Did Hur Hurt Biden?RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.
2024-02-0919 min
Forward GuidanceNeil Dutta: Why There Was No Recession In 2023Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.__Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it...
2024-01-2250 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fed Cuts: When NOT IfRenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.
2023-12-0122 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Yield DependencyJeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
2023-11-2417 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial FlowThe RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.
2023-09-0820 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Data DelugeNeil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.
2023-09-0113 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP DebateRenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.
2023-08-2518 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Retail RobustnessRenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.
2023-08-1821 minFacts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu VargheseTalking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)Macroeconomics is an all-encompassing, complex field, and it's critical to understand each of these large moving parts in order to analyze markets effectively. With the constantly changing fiscal policies, market indicators, and economic patterns, expert insights prove to be invaluable in guiding us through turbulent and unpredictable times.In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Neil Dutta, Managing Director and Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research, to chat about macroeconomics and the current state of the economy. They explore topics such as recession risks, the impact of inventories on GDP, fiscal p...
2023-08-1632 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing?Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.
2023-08-1113 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingAre Stocks Approaching a Correction? With Neil DuttaSAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chanceNeil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the impact of recent economic data on investor confidence, what to expect from CPI data this week, and the likelihood of a recession. You can find more of Neil's work here: https://renmacaccess.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2023-08-0835 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bull BoostThe RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.
2023-06-3013 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Homebuilder HighsThe RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fed’s next move after a pause would be a hike or a cut, homebuilder optimism, Neil’s love of nuance, the latest act in the D.C. debt limit drama, why Biden is betting on a rematch with Trump, and a potential bounce for banks.
2023-04-2118 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Ham Sandwiches Can Be IndictedThe RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.
2023-03-3117 minMasters in BusinessNeil Dutta on Economic ResearchBloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks with Neil Dutta, partner and head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. Dutta analyzes global trends and cross-market investment themes. He was previously a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and an analyst at Barron’s. He has appeared on Bloomberg TV and CNBC as well as in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Associated Press and Bloomberg News for his insights on interest rates, inflation, the manufacturing sector, employment and consumer spending.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2023-01-271h 15
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: On the Recession Train Too SoonThe RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the Fed saying that recession is more likely next year, Neil’s skepticism that economic growth will slow significantly in the short-term, improving consumer discretionary conditions, bear market prevalence in the S&P, and why Boeing could be an economic growth engine next year.
2022-12-1613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: So Far, Not So GoodRenmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Biden’s persistent gaffs.
2022-09-2318 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black HoleNeil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
2022-08-2613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Rainy Days In Vegas & For The GOPThe RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.
2022-08-1917 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: A Summer of SkepticsBiden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.
2022-08-1213 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell PanicsJeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
2022-06-1717 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau?Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.
2022-06-1011 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Can Powell Pull A Maverick?RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.
2022-05-2715 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big StickNeil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.
2021-12-1015 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The FedThe RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.
2021-11-1918 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s FingersJeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.
2021-10-2213 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes YieldsRenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.
2021-09-2413 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet ExhaustedToday Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.
2021-09-1712 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation TradeRenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.
2021-08-2016 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite BidenGive us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.
2021-08-1319 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for AugustRenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.
2021-08-0615 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie LinkStephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:
2021-07-3142 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt CeilingRenmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.
2021-07-3017 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes InflationRenmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.
2021-07-2316 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Focused on the FedGive us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.
2021-07-1611 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2)In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.
2021-07-1040 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an IslandGive us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.
2021-07-0918 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s FuseRenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.
2021-07-0215 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur LafferIn the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.
2021-06-2645 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed BlinkRenmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.
2021-06-1815 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fearsThe RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.
2021-06-1116 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan WeinsteinStan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.
2021-06-0559 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon CopyRenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.
2021-06-0413 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge BondsSteve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.
2021-05-2814 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About RatesRenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.
2021-05-2114 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Great UnmaskingRenmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.
2021-05-1416 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-fulRenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.
2021-05-0713 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned DavisNed Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........
2021-05-0143 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year MakesRenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections
2021-04-3013 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is CirclingIn 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.
2021-04-2314 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard ChiltonRichard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....
2021-04-1756 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliabilityThe RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.
2021-04-1613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: People in Glass HousesNeil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.
2021-04-0915 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2)Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......
2021-04-0347 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1)Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first pa...
2021-03-2731 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to PressRenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?
2021-03-2613 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are MisleadingRenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.
2021-03-1917 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom GallagherTom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:
2021-03-1347 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then SomeRenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.
2021-03-1214 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening LeadRenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.
2021-03-0514 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....
2021-02-2753 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s BellyacheRenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.
2021-02-2617 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats?RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers
2021-02-1915 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott BessentScott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.
2021-02-1342 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs RealityRenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead
2021-02-1212 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus FuseIn 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.
2021-02-0513 min
RenMacRenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange BedfellowsIn 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.
2021-01-2914 min
RenMacRenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah BlacksteinNoah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....
2021-01-2545 min