Shows
NotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast359This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why isn't the Gilt market responding positively to the news that there will be rate cuts next year and the most recently inflation figures are lower than expected? given that Government borrowing exceeded forecast again last month, are you worried - and how do you think the situation is likely to play out (and when)? Will the debacle over EuroClear frozen Russian assets have a long lasting effect on foreign funds...
2025-12-1912 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast358This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the latest announcement from the US Federal Reserve about starting purchses of Treasury Bills. Os this QE? Also will the Bank of England copy this? Will the Bank of England cut interest-rates? Is the bond market too highly leveraged?
2025-12-1212 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast357This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the implications for GDP,debt costs and the national debt of the rise in Japanese bond yields. I number-crunch the BBC analysis of higher UK Gird charges for electricity. Also the EU plans to loan Russian money to Ukraine.
2025-12-0510 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast356This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why I think it is a bad idea that the UK is switching to issuing more short-dated debt? How has the UK bond market responded to the Budget? Will mutuals be affected by he cash ISA changes? Can you explain how student loans affect the UK public finances?
2025-11-2814 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast355This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the price of Gas? The impact around the world of higher Japanese bond yields? Will Bank of England cut interest-rates. Have renewables driven up the price of UK electricity? Will we see a bank crisis? What would you do if you were the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer?
2025-11-2116 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast354This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why is the Boe is going through a process of quantitive tightening at the moment? Any thoughts with the current fiasco going on for investors? What's your take on the situation with the £ and government bonds? Is a UK bank tax coming? How high do you think the Bond vigilantes will push gilt rates up to.?
2025-11-1413 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast353This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Should the fiscal rules be scrapped as we can't forecast accurately? Will lower oil prices drive down inflation and if so how? Should UK interest-rates be set by government? Are Income Tax rises in their way? How likely are capital controls for the UK?
2025-11-0713 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast352This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how the fall in the UK Pound £ versus the Euro will affect inflation? Then an explanation of how Bank of Italy Governor Panetta got his maths wrong on the subject of the Digital Euro yesterday? Also why I think it is the road to-3% interest-rates on the next crash.
2025-10-3110 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast351This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how the AI stock market boom compares to the dot com one? What did we learn from UK Retail Sales? What about Euro are debt maturities? Have we seen the peak in UK bond yields? Will sanctions on Russia affect the oil price?
2025-10-2410 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast350This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. How worried should we be by the news of US regional bank loan write-offs/fraud? With gilt yields easing, will it affect the OBR forecast and as a result allow RR to go easy with her tax raid? Is there not a danger that the bond markets will then force yields up if she doesn't appear to have tackled the deteriorating UK fiscal position?
2025-10-1710 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast349This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. An introduction on Sanae Takaichi and Abenomics. The economic consequences of the UK importing so much of its electricity. Why are UK bond yields above Japan? Is the US about to restart QE?
2025-10-1014 min
NotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast348This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on.The economics effects of the US government shut down? What mistakes has Argentina made? Can the US revaue its Gold reserves and spend the gains? Will the ECB buy French bonds to reduce Le Spread?
2025-10-0313 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast347This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. Reform plans for the Bank of England. Why has the Gold price risen so much? Why do people think the price of gas drives UK electricity costs? Where do I think interest-rates and inflation are going?
2025-09-2614 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast346This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. On 1 September, 86 MILLION bank accounts will be suspended in Vietnam because their owners have not registered for biometric digital ID, including fingerprints and facial recognition.
Perhaps you could talk about that on Friday. It does seem odd that countries like the PIGS have lower or similar bond yields Vs much higher rated France.
Even
@SkyNews
are saying the
@bankofengland
sale of gilts, which they announced on the EVE of the Mini-Budget...
2025-09-1912 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast345This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. In addition to reducing the frequency (perhaps a three-month rolling average) should we instead focus on per-capita rather than headline and perhaps GNI instead of GDP? Would kill importation of cheap labour. I appreciate that markets look 12-18 months ahead but how much of these rises are based on genuine optimism for the world economy in the short term or are we seeing an unsustainable bubble, in your opinion? When you...
2025-09-1212 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast344This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how bad the UK fiscal position is? Why haven;t huse prices fallen by 35%? Are UK Retail Sales improving? How do long bond yields affect the economy?
2025-09-0514 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast343This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on
Camille Araz
What is the deficit in the UK and what is it in the US? What about overall government debt?
Damien Pudner
Should the BoE be given a dual (or different single) mandate?
mark bishop
OK, here's one for you: if you were economic adviser to Rachel Reeves, what would you recommend she does in the upcoming Budget (other than resign, obvs...)?
Morris May
What likelihood do you think there...
2025-08-2913 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast342This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how much of UK GDP growth is government driven? To what extent do gilt yields play a role in £ exchange rate, if any?
At what level of yield on long gilts do we have a crisis? How unusual is the disconnect between Bank of England base rate policy and market yields, relative to the UK history and other countries? Do UK Chancellors ever have good days?
2025-08-2215 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast341This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts in reply to questions from Morris May (twice), Trading Floor Audio, James Hirst, Polenic Paine, and Mr B ( those who know know) on bond markets. Regulation, the Premier League and Euromillions.
2025-08-1512 min
NotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast340This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts in reply to what is a record number of questions many of which asked about why the Bank of England cut interest-rates with inflation so high? What is stagflarion? What is "stabliisimg? What do I mean by some being more eual than others in the run-up? Why did bond yields rise?
2025-08-0817 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast339This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on. Has the tariff noose been put on the BRICS necks? Is the rapid rise in the dollar (index) down to the green back being seen as a safe haven? Any idea when the bulk of the covid debt is refinanced, and will it drive rates lower.?
How long before this government destroys the economy and puts the UK into receivership?
2025-08-0111 min
NotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast337This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on When will the Uk IMF bail out date be? Will there be a German bond market tsunami and also a rally in the Euro to parity versus the UK Pound? Have higher profit margins boosted equity markets and inflation?
2025-07-2511 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast336This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on will we look back in a few months and discover that long-maturity gilts have been the star asset of the global investment universe.?
Why is the UK pumping up risky mortgage lending? Inflation often exhibits a ‘twin peaks’ pattern, so what trajectory can we expect now? As gilt futures drift further downward (91.1), are they the canary in the coal mine and if so, at what level does that canary drop off its...
2025-07-1812 min
NotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast335This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Is the US facing inflation or deflation? Could the UK or US govt easily change the inflation measure used on existing bonds? Is Britain facing an imminent debt crisis? Is the Eurozone heading for the zero bound?
2025-07-1112 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast334This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Either halt QT at the Bank of England, or stop the Treasury from bailing it out? At what point a “temporary support operation” becomes a “bailout”? Could the UK cut taxes? How secure in her job is UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves?
2025-07-0413 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast333This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Please explain how the BOE makes losses on government bonds? Has Trump finally managed to lower US ‘Trade deficit’ by linking tariffs to a 20% fall in the USD? Do central banks just conveniently ignore forward inflation indicators? At the moment it just feels that there is little point to them being "independent.
2025-06-2711 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast332This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is happening with UK inflation with reference to the rises in food and in particular beef prices. Cost push or Demand pull? But what effect might this support forr Ukraine have on an already over-indebted European economies?
2025-06-2011 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast331This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on.Are we heading back anywhere near 30% basic rates of income tax? I am intrigued by how council tax hikes cannot impact inflation? Is Ray Dalio correct about the causes of debt crises?
2025-06-1314 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast330This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Is there, in your view, a tipping point — a percentage at which a country can bo longer afford its debt costs? The gap between EU and UK base rates is now significant. Is it abnormally so, by historical standards? Is it warranted?Do you think ONS are correct saying only 0.1 difference on restated CPI after car tax error? Hi Shaun, re your article on the scale of the US fiscal problem, is...
2025-06-0613 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast329This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What happens to inflation if we've got a shrinking economy and unemployment starts to rise? To what extent is active QT driving up the 30yr yield? Should the UK be issuing shorter-duration debt (10yrs max)? What do you believe is the timeline for this (fiscal policy) reaching a crisis point where the political consensus changes?
2025-05-3013 min
Share Talk LTDShaun Richards, independent economist, real Inflation rate, Furlough, QE, kicking the canShaun Richards is an independent economist who specialises in inflation measurement and monetary economics, Adviser to pension and investment funds. Bank of England watcher.
My name is Shaun Richards and I regularly analyse economic events and developments on Core Finance TV. You may also have heard me on Bloomberg Radio in the mornings or seen my comments and articles in newspapers such as the Business live section of the Guardian City-AM and the Daily Express. I also write economics reports for investment groups, hedge funds and for pension funds. For the latter the work often relates to inflation...
2020-11-2910 minNotayesmanspodcastsNotayesmanspodcast1My first weekly podcast covering my economics philosophy as well as developments in Japan and UK GDP numbers.
2018-11-0906 min