Shows
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)APIs of evil: studying fraud as infrastructurePatrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about "industrial-scale" fraud and why it should be treated as a professional business process rather than a series of isolated accidents. He explains how fraudsters leverage specialized supply chains—shared CPAs, incorporation agents, and "least attentive" banks—to loot public funds. Patrick argues that the government’s "pay-and-chase" model is fundamentally broken and suggests that simple "proof of work" functions, like a 30-second cell phone video of a workspace, could provide the visceral signal that paperwork lacks, and examines the state’s lack of "object permanence" regarding serial fraudsters and how scaled data provides...
2026-02-1251 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Why check cashing businesses existPatrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about the business of check cashing, a misunderstood industry. He explains why cashing a check is actually a "new credit extension" where the bank bets on both the writer and the payee, and why profit-maximizing institutions often decline to bank individuals who represent even a "material risk" of a single bounced check. From the manual "rituals" of endorsement to the way fintechs like Ingo Money and Cash App use persistent identity to narrow the risk envelope, Patrick examines the technical and social reasons why some people pay to access their own wages, others...
2026-02-0538 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Claude Code makes several thousand dollars in 30 minutes, with Patrick McKenziePatrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through a coding session with Claude Code to demonstrate what the fuss is about. The business problem: recovering failed subscription payments that required coordinating APIs across Stripe, Ghost, and email providers, and the surprising experience of watching Claude read documentation, resolve dependency conflicts, and make sensible security choices. The episode offers a pedantic level of detail on why the sharpest technologists use words like “fundamentally transformed” to describe the impact of LLMs on coding.–Full annotated transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/claude-code/–Sponsor: FramerBuilding and main...
2026-01-2941 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)We should stop burning pharma trials’ lab notes, with Ruxandra TesloPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ruxandra Teslo to discuss why drug development keeps getting more expensive despite revolutionary new treatment modalities from GLP-1 agonists to gene therapies. They discuss Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Law in reverse) and Ruxandra's Common Technical Document Project, which aims to build the "Stack Overflow of clinical development" by making regulatory submissions publicly accessible. This will fill a present hole in the education of researchers, lower barriers for small biotechs, and accelerate drug discovery.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ruxandra-teslo/ –Sponsor: FramerBuilding and maint...
2026-01-221h 18
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Your support rep is also trapped in this call, with Des Traynor of IntercomPatrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with Intercom co-founder Des Traynor to examine customer support through the lens of Conway's Law, Goodhart's Law, and several decades of accumulated organizational scar tissue. They discuss how AI agents are democratizing white-glove service, why modern LLMs have retrained user expectations around “chatbots” very quickly, and the surprisingly liberating effect of talking to something that will never judge you for missing a loan payment.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/des-traynor/–Sponsor: MongoDB Tired of database limitations and architectures that break when you scale? MongoDB is the d...
2026-01-1554 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The magic spell that makes banks give you your money backPatrick McKenzie (@patio11) reads his latest Bits about Money essay explaining why he “loves Regulation E more than any rational person does.” He explains how Reg E created a privately-administered legal system processing over 100 million complaints annually—dwarfing the formal U.S. court system—and why banks are now trying to avoid these obligations for Zelle's nine figure fraud problem.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-magic-spell-reg-e/– Sponsors: MongoDB & FramerTired of database limitations and architectures that break when you scale? MongoDB is the database built for developers, by developers: ACID compliant, E...
2026-01-0838 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)2025 in review, with Sammy CottrellOur annual year-in-review episode covers some recurring themes from 2025 and some behind-the-curtains discussion of running a podcast. Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with producer Sammy Cottrell to discuss the most popular episodes of the year, the impact of AI coding tools, the challenges of video podcasting, Sammy's role as a "fixer" finding guests, and much more.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2025-in-review-with-sammy-cottrell/–Sponsor:Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at fr...
2026-01-0350 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Gift cards and the fraud supply chainFor this week's holiday-inspired Complex Systems, Patrick reads his essay from Bits about Money on the gift card paradox: a legitimate payments rail, yet also a primary vector for fraud that leaves victims without recourse.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gift-cards-and-the-fraud-supply-chain/–Sponsors: Givewell & Framer Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org, pick “Podcast” and enter Complex Systems at checkout.Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and productio...
2025-12-2615 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Understanding perpetual futuresIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through how perpetual futures work, from funding rates to liquidations to the surprise of automatic deleveraging. Perps are the dominant trading mechanism in crypto (6-8X larger than spot volume) and exist primarily to let exchanges and market makers run casinos more capital-efficiently. He explains why this intellectually interesting innovation probably won't escape crypto, despite what crypto enthusiasts might expect.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-perpetual-futures/–Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Desi...
2025-12-1126 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The economics of discovery, with Ben ReinhardtIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ben Reinhardt, founder of Speculative Technologies, to examine how science gets funded in the United States and why the current system leaves much to be desired. They dissect the outdated taxonomy of basic, applied, and development research, categories encoded into law that fail to capture how actual breakthrough science happens.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-economics-of-discovery-with-ben-reinhardt/–Sponsors: GiveWell & FramerSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time dono...
2025-12-0447 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Understanding equity at tech companies, with Billy Gallagher of ProspectWhy do billions of dollars of stock trade hands based on napkin math and vibes? Billy Gallagher, CEO of Prospect and former Rippling employee, joins Patrick McKenzie (patio11) to walk through the information asymmetry that costs less-sophisticated employees massive amounts of money. From understanding when to early exercise options to navigating 83B elections and tender offers, they discuss the critical decisions that have a shot clock ticking the day you sign your offer letter.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-equity-at-tech-companies/–Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that coll...
2025-11-201h 19
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The $4,000 insurance policy designed to never pay outPatrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his essay on title insurance, a service designed to never be performed with a "laughably low" 5% loss ratio compared to 50-80% for almost all types of insurance. The typical American moves every seven to eight years, paying a $500 annual tax for basically no good or service. This is due to a quirk about how America records real estate ownership: it mostly doesn’t. Confused? Welcome to the joyous anarchy that is American real estate.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-4-000-insurance-policy-designed-to-never-pay-out/–Sponsor: Framer is a design...
2025-11-1328 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How deposit insurance actually worksPatrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits about Money essay on deposit insurance, explaining this critical financial infrastructure, with some thoughts on its performance during 2023. He covers what deposit insurance actually covers (and critically, what it doesn't), how fintech users often misunderstand their exposure to counterparty risk, and the anatomy of bank failures. This is infrastructure you rely on as much as electricity: ubiquitous, critical, hopefully invisible, and worth understanding before it matters again.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-deposit-insurance-actually-works/–Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the tool...
2025-11-0633 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Home improvement lending with fewer bankers and more computersIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his essay about the financial infrastructure that makes buying windows painless. When a window installer can originate, underwrite, and fund a $25,000 loan in 15 minutes before leaving your house, it's because four parties—window companies, facilitating platforms, specialized banks, and capital providers—have built a system that actually works. Patrick explains how modern consumer lending learned from 2008 to create better underwriting, clearer compliance, and properly distributed risk, all in service of enabling commerce in the real economy.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/home-improvement-lending/–Sponsor: Framer is a des...
2025-10-3030 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Talking to the Bank of England about systemic risk and systems engineeringPatrick McKenzie (@patio11) shares his remarks to the Bank of England on critical vulnerabilities in financial infrastructure. Drawing from the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage which brought down teller systems at major US banks, Patrick discusses how regulatory guidance inadvertently created dangerous software monocultures. He also examines the stablecoin market, its impressive growth, and the elephant tethered to the room. He also delivers a message from Silicon Valley to other centers of power on the urgent necessity of waking up regarding AI, which almost the entire world currently far underrates.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/talking-to-the-bank-of-england/...
2025-10-231h 32
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Narrative, mastery, and character bleed in games, with Ricki HeicklenPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss Metagame 2025, a conference where 250 attendees were divided into Purple and Orange teams competing for territories across campus. Patrick built a complete roguelike RPG in 25 days using LLMs, discovering that providing minimal world-building context transformed generic fantasy outputs into emotionally resonant storytelling. They discuss the power and responsibility of game designers, how games create pedagogical experiences that traditional teaching cannot, and what happens when the line between player identity and character identity starts to blur.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/narrative-mastery-character-bleed-in-games-with-ricki-heicklen/...
2025-10-161h 32
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Bits and bricks: Oliver Habryka on LessWrong, LightHaven, and community infrastructurePatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Oliver Habryka, who runs Lightcone Infrastructure—the organization behind both the LessWrong forum and the Lighthaven conference venue in Berkeley. They explore how LessWrong became one of the most intellectually consequential forums on the internet, the surprising challenges of running a hotel with fractal geometry, and why Berkeley's building regulations include an explicit permission to plug in a lamp. The conversation ranges from fire codes that inadvertently shape traffic deaths, to nonprofit fundraising strategies borrowed from church capital campaigns, to why coordination is scarcer than money in philanthropy.–Full transcript avai...
2025-10-091h 16
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Building institutions that bend towards truth, with Clara Collier of Asterisk MagazinePatrick McKenzie is joined by Clara Collier, editor and publisher of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how we create institutions that bend towards truth. Clara explains why she launched a quarterly print magazine in the Internet age. She traces how 19th century German universities invented the modern infrastructure for rewarding knowledge production and training researchers at scale, and where our public science communication falls short of that heritage. The conversation examines why institutional trust has declined, particularly around science communication and public health, and whether we can rebuild trust in knowledge-producing institutions.–Full transcript available here: www.co...
2025-10-021h 13
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How blogging went legit, with Substack CEO Chris BestPatrick McKenzie is joined by Chris Best, CEO of Substack, to discuss how the platform created new economic infrastructure for independent media. They explore Substack's evolution from a simple newsletter tool to a full media network, the revenue guarantee program that attracted prominent writers, and the company's principled stance on press freedom during the "cancel culture" years. Chris explains how subscription-based business models create better incentive alignment than attention-based advertising, and discusses new features like AI-powered video production and Substack Defender, their legal protection program for writers facing lawsuits.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ho...
2025-09-2548 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Prestige media, new media, and the US government, with Kelsey PiperPatrick McKenzie is joined again by Kelsey Piper, who has co-founded "The Argument" to revive principled liberal discourse after witnessing how coordinated social media campaigns replaced substantive disagreement in newsrooms. Their conversation traces this institutional breakdown from media to government, examining how DOGE's spreadsheet-driven governance nearly destroyed PEPFAR, America's most successful foreign aid program that had driven infant coffin manufacturers out of business across Africa. The discussion ultimately argues that rebuilding both effective journalism and competent governance requires returning to the hard work of engaging with ground-level reality rather than managing online narratives.–Full transcript av...
2025-09-191h 32
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)AI alignment, with Emmett ShearPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emmett Shear, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, who now runs Softmax AI alignment. Emmett argues that current AI safety approaches focused on "systems of control" are fundamentally flawed and proposes "organic alignment" instead—where AI systems develop genuine care for their local communities rather than following rigid rules. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-alignment-with-emmett-shear/–Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/des...
2025-09-111h 28
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Building software that survives contact with reality, with Will WilsonPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super Mario Brothers to ensuring the reliability of critical financial and infrastructure systems, and discuss the implications for a future where AI writes increasingly more code.–Full tr...
2025-09-041h 16
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean of Naval GazingPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and explains why current anti-drone defenses make swarm attacks less threatening than headlines suggest.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defense-with-bean-of-naval-gazing/–Spon...
2025-08-281h 02
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)AI and the great developer speed-up, with Joel Becker of METRThis week on Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joel Becker from METR. They discuss groundbreaking research on AI coding assistants.Joel et al’s randomized controlled trial of 16 expert developers working on major open source projects revealed a counterintuitive finding: despite predictions of 24-40% speed improvements, developers actually took 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI tools, even though they retrospectively believed they were 20% faster. The conversation explores why even sophisticated professionals struggle to accurately assess their own productivity with AI tools, the industrial organization of software development, and the implications fo...
2025-08-211h 04
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How banks actually work (and don't work)In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains how banks' technical architecture and organizational design choices—from core processing systems to customer service tiers—systematically generate the dysfunction that customers experience when things go wrong.–
2025-08-1434 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Building software in Japan, with Jim WeisserPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jim Weisser, a serial entrepreneur and founder of SignTime, for an in-depth exploration of Japan's software market and startup ecosystem. They discuss the unique challenges of building software in a culture that prizes stability over rapid iteration, the dominance of systems integrators, and how Japan's economic stagnation shaped its relationship with technology. The conversation covers everything from Excel-driven development processes to the recent transformation of Japan's VC landscape, offering insights for anyone considering doing business in the world's third-largest economy.–Full transcript: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-software-in-japan-with-jim-weisser/–Sp...
2025-08-071h 17
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Startup investing in Tokyo, with Coral Capital’s James RineyPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time machine advantage" and why American-developed dev tools are going viral in Tokyo.–Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/startup-investing-in-tokyo/–[Patr...
2025-07-311h 04
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How AI reshapes the craft of software engineering, with Yoav TzfatiPatrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming careers and the democratization of software development.–Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-reshapes-software-engineering/–[Patrick notes: Complex Systems...
2025-07-2445 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Stacking the odds: Cate Hall on agency and outlier successPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of...
2025-07-1746 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Think like a trader, with Ricki HeicklenPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen.See the full tr...
2025-07-101h 55
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Achieving results in the physical world, with Adam Jarvis of “Public Service”Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity.Complex Systems now has video episodes as well...
2025-07-031h 09
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The AI infrastructure stack with Jennifer Li, a16zIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Jennifer Li, a general partner at a16z investing in enterprise, infrastructure and AI. Jennifer breaks down how AI workloads are creating new demands on everything from inference pipelines to observability systems, explaining why we're seeing a bifurcation between language models and diffusion models at the infrastructure level. They explore emerging categories like reinforcement learning environments that help train agents, the evolution of web scraping for agentic workflows, and why Jennifer believes the API economy is about to experience another boom as agents become the primary consumers of software interfaces.
2025-06-2645 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Getting better at LLMs, with Zvi MowshowitzIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) recorded with Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) live at the LessOnline conference. They explore practical strategies for getting better results from large language models. Zvi explains how to customize AI behavior through thoughtful system prompts, while Patrick shares techniques for using LLMs as writing partners and research assistants. They discuss the evolving relationship between content creators and AI training data, touching on the emerging field of "generative engine optimization" (GEO). The conversation also covers multimodal capabilities, recursive AI use, and strategies for avoiding common failure modes like hallucination and sycophancy. –Full transcript: www.co...
2025-06-1251 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Machine learning meets malware, with Caleb FentonPatrick McKenzie (patio11) discusses software reversing and AI's transformative impact on cybersecurity with Caleb Fenton, co-founder of Delphos Labs. They explore how LLMs are revolutionizing the traditionally tedious work of analyzing compiled binaries, the nation-state cyber warfare landscape, and how AI is shifting security from reactive to proactive defense. They cover the technical details of malware analysis, the economics of vulnerability detection, and the broader implications as both defenders and attackers gain access to increasingly powerful AI tools. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/machine-learning-meets-malware-with-caleb-fenton/–Sponsor: MercuryT...
2025-06-051h 21
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How to negotiate your salary packageIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) revisits his widely-shared negotiation essay, which he notes may be the most impactful thing he's done in his career aside from VaccinateCA. The essay covers the psychology and tactics of salary negotiation, emphasizing that engineers have turned being bad at negotiation into a "perverse badge of virtue" and that the financial stakes are enormous—a small salary increase compounds over decades to six-figure differences. Patrick walks through practical advice including never giving a number first, understanding how employers actually think about compensation costs, and reframing negotiation as a professional business discussion rather than so...
2025-05-2945 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The capitalist's guide to podcasting, with Ross Rheingans-YooIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo–Spons...
2025-05-221h 03
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Killing viruses with light, with Jacob SwettIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically reduce respiratory diseases and prevent future pandemics, comparing our approach to air quality with the water sanitation revolution that eliminated diseases like typhoid. They discuss the economics of implementation (starting around $30 per student annually with costs likely decreasing), the historical reasons why this technology hasn't been widely deployed...
2025-05-151h 01
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Life insurance and your money, with Zac TownsendIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zac Townsend, a serial founder and CEO of Meanwhile, a fully regulated life insurance company operating in Bitcoin. They explore the differences between life and property insurance, explain why term life is essential financial protection everyone should consider, and dive into the tax benefits that shape the industry. Zac shares insights on how private equity firms are acquiring insurers for their stable capital base, and explains Bermuda's role as the world's insurance capital. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/life-insurance-and-your-money-with-zac-townsend/–Sponsor: Mercur...
2025-05-081h 20
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Fixing government technology, with Mikey DickersonIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making without market-based feedback loops. They explore how government systems handle software development differently than industry, with Mikey noting that the issues are less about individual competence and more about systemic incentives that reward risk aversion. The conversation covers the challenges of "modernization" efforts, the loss of organizational management knowledge over decades, and reflection...
2025-05-0153 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Understanding and wielding power in local government, with Daniel GolliherIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Daniel Golliher, founder of Maximum New York, to discuss the opaque mechanics of political power and how everyday people can effectively engage with government systems. They explore the stark gap between formal political science degrees and how politics actually works, practical tactics for influencing policy (like optimizing the printability of a blog post to placing well-timed calls to legislators), and Daniel’s concept of ‘blue tape’. Throughout the conversation, they emphasize that participating in governance requires far less expertise and connections than most people assume—mainly just the willingness to show up...
2025-04-2459 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The AI energy bottleneck, with Tim FistIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single cluster needing 5 gigawatts by 2030. Tim explains why behind-the-meter generation and geothermal energy offer promising solutions while regulatory hurdles like NEPA and transmission permitting create "litigation doom loops" that threaten America's competitiveness. The conversation covers the global race for compute infrastructure, with China and the UAE making aggressive investments whil...
2025-04-171h 06
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Taking stablecoins seriously, with Haseeb QureshiIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit activities to serve legitimate economic functions globally, in ways that many Americans might not fully appreciate. Patrick and Haseeb debate the regulatory landscape, the strategic ambiguity of crypto's positioning, and whether stablecoins represent a parallel financial system that might eventually converge with traditional banking. –Ful...
2025-04-101h 08
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The past, present, and future of AI, with StripePatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emily Sands, Head of Information at Stripe, to discuss how they leverage AI to process over $1.4 trillion annually, while navigating the complex web of merchants, banks, and payment rails that facilitate online commerce. Patrick and Emily cover how Stripe’s layered stack of AI combats sophisticated card testing attacks, recovers billions in once-lost revenue through intelligent retry strategies, and enables new businesses to compete with established players through powerful network effects. They also talk about the meteoric rise of AI companies, and how agent-assisted commerce is beginning to transform online shopping through controlled fi...
2025-04-031h 33
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)No, poor people aren’t funding your credit card rewardsIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants, not by interest charges.To the extent those interchange is passed along to customers, it falls mostly on rich customers, because rich customers spend more. They spend more in interchange than they earn in rewards. Issuing banks and researchers who have looked at the...
2025-03-271h 06
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Points, profits, and packed planes, with Gary LeffPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Gary Leff, the author of "View from the Wing", to discuss the economic systems behind airlines and loyalty programs. They discuss how airlines manage to stay profitable despite razor-thin margins, the economics of frequent flyer programs, and why these programs often generate more value than the airlines themselves. The conversation explores why many irrational airline policies reflect deeper economic realities and competitive constraints that shape flying today.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gary-leff-frequent-flier-programs/–Sponsor: VantaVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, help...
2025-03-201h 31
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Tax the dirt, with Lars Doucet & Greg MillerPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and how the fundamental trade-off between assessment accuracy and consistency creates winners and losers. The conversation also covers the posting-to-policy pipeline, their work developing open-source tools to improve assessment equity, and techniques citizens can use to influence their local assessment office. –Full transcript available here...
2025-03-131h 17
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawalPatrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened, and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism.
2025-03-0641 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem AzharPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from historical largescale infrastructure investments like railways and telecommunications, and the future of energy including solar, nuclear and geothermal power. Through their discussion, Patrick and Azeem explain why our mental models for both computing and energy systems need to be updated.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-llm-data-center-power-economics/...
2025-02-271h 13
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)You can’t retract the factsIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-independence/–Sponsors: Safebase | CheckReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase...
2025-02-2042 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke FauxIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up, to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether went from a “quilted collection of red flags” to becoming crypto's dominant stablecoin, its noteworthy relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, and its current political maneuvering. They also discuss the societal value of financial regulation versus laissez-faire approaches to consumer protection.–Full transcript available here: ww...
2025-02-131h 27
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Power plays: grid economics and engineering, with Travis DauwalterPatrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Travis Dauwalter, energy enthusiast (and PhD), to explain the systems we often take for granted behind the US electrical grid. The conversation covers how the grid maintains perfect supply-demand balance in real-time, the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources, and why America actually has three separate interconnected grids. Patrick and Travis weave through the economics of power generation, transmission line physics, and how data centers are reshaping energy markets. (Also, in a bit of a surprise, Patrick defends the honor of Bitcoin miners.)–Full transcript available here: complexsystemspodcast.com/el...
2025-02-061h 13
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The landmines buried in the fine print of Chicago’s new casino dealIn today’s episode Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) examines a Chicago casino investment, first of its kind within the city limits. Patrick reads from his Bits About Money essay (published January 2025) with additional commentary based on recent developments. The discussion reveals how municipal politics, grievances about national and local economic history, and creative financing intersect for ‘a very Chicago gamble.’ –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-landmines-buried-in-the-fine-print-of-chicagos-new-casino-deal/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Le...
2025-01-3043 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The banking crisis, two years laterPatrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready t...
2025-01-231h 09
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Debanking explainedIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) unpacks his 24k word essay Debanking (and Debunking?) originally published on Bits about Money. He discusses the contours of recent debanking claims made by the crypto community, notably Marc Andreessen, Nic Carter, and explains how banking actually works as infrastructure rather than conspiracy. The conversation moves from Operation Chokepoint's documented history to current claims about coordinated action against certain industries, while highlighting how banking access challenges disproportionately affect those who are "relatively less resourced, relatively less educated."–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/debanking-patrick-mckenzie/
2025-01-161h 00
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Retrospective on 2024, with Sammy CottrellIn this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/...
2025-01-091h 03
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Seeing like an outsider, with YatharthIn this episode, Yatharth (@askyatharth), a graduate student and software engineer, turns the tables to interview Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) about cultural codes, writing, and AI. Patrick shares how his early experiences fighting credit report errors and navigating cross-cultural business environments led to his distinctive approach to understanding and writing about institutional systems. The conversation spans from Patrick's methodical exploration of banking infrastructure to his predictions about LLMs, weaving in personal stories about dating, parenthood, and bridging American and Japanese cultures along the way.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/–Sponsors: Safebase Read...
2025-01-021h 19
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua MorrisonIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time a...
2024-12-191h 12
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How we tax property, with Lars DoucetIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time a...
2024-12-121h 09
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Fraud levels are a policy choiceIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing business. Reducing fraud to zero would require such restrictive verification that it would severely hamper legitimate commerce and social programs. Using examples from credit card processing to PPP loans, Patrick illustrates how different industries calibrate their tolerance for fraud based on their margins, mission, and societal role.
2024-12-0549 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)AI, poker, and mind games, with Max ChiswickPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai...
2024-11-2155 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne HobartBy popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infr...
2024-11-141h 42
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How money moves, with Erik TorenbergIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance.–Full transcript available here: https://complexsystemspodcast.com/money-movement-erik-torenberg–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down you...
2024-11-0737 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-YooIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/ –Spo...
2024-10-311h 27
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-LuisIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse.–Fu...
2024-10-241h 18
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How real estate investing works with Moses KaganIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and a comparison of the real estate markets in different major cities. The episode is in many ways a follow up to P...
2024-10-171h 28
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Telling the tech storyIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves. They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this d...
2024-10-1058 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with Jim McKenziePatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating local politics and lobbyists, the conversation offers a rare glimpse into the hidden mechanisms of urban development. Jim shares the highlights from his career like transforming day-old bread stores into bank branches, dealing with Chicago's infamous aldermen, and spelunking in archives to find century-old telegrams with...
2024-10-031h 52
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne HobartPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security...
2024-09-261h 26
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Decisions Nobody Made, policy edition, with Dave GuarinoIn this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues within government agencies that lead to these inefficiencies, the lack of user-centric design, misaligned incentives, a “cavernous gap” in feedback loops, and surprisingly simple ways anyone can in...
2024-09-191h 22
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)True Crime, banking editionIn this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The conversation touches on the unintended consequences of strict regulations, including their impact on economic growth and financial inclusion....
2024-09-1253 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)That time we accidentally created national healthcare infrastructure, with Dave KastenIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the challenges of rapidly scaling a volunteer-driven organization, the lessons learned about public health infrastructure, the intricacies of interfacing with government bureaucracy, and reasons to be cautiously optimistic about tech/government collaboration.Expanding on a theme from recent episodes (see: Casey Handmer), Dave and Patrick co...
2024-09-051h 36
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin VernonPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and emerging fields like geothermal energy extraction.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fracking-austin-vernon/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save ti...
2024-08-291h 11
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan DaviesIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud and its relevance to systems design, and the process of writing nonfiction books. The conversation touches on pathologies like what happens when organizations insulate decisionmakers from communications channels to on-the-ground reality.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/dan-davies-organizations-fraud/–Sponsors: Safebase ...
2024-08-221h 23
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Energy economics and rocket science with Casey HandmerPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fear of waste and rigid processes often stifle innovation and efficiency.The conversation then shifts to Terraform Industries' mission to create synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air, potentially revolutionizing the energy sector. The conversation dives into the complexities of large-scale systems, from space exploration to renewable en...
2024-08-151h 25
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futuresIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons that resonate in more formal markets. They also explore the fallacies of rational decision-making in large organizations, the significance of obsession and practice in achieving excellence, and exchange predictions on AI.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/betting-trading-zvi-mowshowitz/–Sponsors: Safebase R...
2024-08-081h 26
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of ManifoldIn this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminat...
2024-08-0151 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Reporting on tech with Kelsey PiperPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/reporting-tech-kelsey-piper/–Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down...
2024-07-251h 06
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne HobartPatrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.–Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/ –Sponsors: SafebaseReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading c...
2024-07-1850 min
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki HeicklenPatrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling strategies inadvertently.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/teaching-trading-ricki-heicklen/–Sponsors: SafebaseReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow do...
2024-07-111h 40
Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 13: Selling Online Businesses With Thomas Smale
I sold Bingo Card Creator, the business I’m probably best known for, through FEI last year. Thomas Smale, the principal of that brokerage, is now a buddy of mine, and he agreed to chat with me a bit about what goes into buying and selling online businesses. I think it is of particular interest to those of you with SaaS businesses already, but it might also be interesting for those of you who might found one eventually, as you can make early decisions (like e.g. technology stack) which built improved saleability into the business from day one....
2016-08-2649 min
Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 13: Selling Online Businesses With Thomas SmaleI sold Bingo Card Creator, the business I’m probably best known for, through FEI last year. Thomas Smale, the principal of that brokerage, is now a buddy of mine, and he agreed to chat with me a bit about what goes into buying and selling online businesses. I think it is of particular interest to those of you with SaaS businesses already, but it might also be interesting for those of you who might found one eventually, as you can make early decisions (like e.g. technology stack) which built improved saleability into the business from day one....
2016-08-2649 minKalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 11: Bootstrapping vs. Raising Money
Keith and I are joined by special guest Jay Winder, CEO of MakeLeaps, in this 11th episode of the podcast. We talk a bit about doing business in Japan, raising money vs. bootstrapping as a SaaS company, how AngelList is going to eat the world, and the usual eclectic mix of topics. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll learn in this podcast: Why you should negotiate from a position of strength and abundance. How to raise a round of funding through AngelList while not being...
2015-02-261h 01Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 11: Bootstrapping vs. Raising MoneyKeith and I are joined by special guest Jay Winder, CEO of MakeLeaps, in this 11th episode of the podcast. We talk a bit about doing business in Japan, raising money vs. bootstrapping as a SaaS company, how AngelList is going to eat the world, and the usual eclectic mix of topics.[Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.]What you’ll learn in this podcast:Why you should negotiate from a position of strength and abundance.How to raise a round of funding through AngelList while not bei...
2015-02-261h 01Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 10: Putting the “Family” in Family Business
Keith and I are back with the 10th episode of the podcast. This time we’re talking about our wives and kids, how much they mean to us (lots!), and how we try to fit being good husbands/fathers around our mutual desire to keep growing the businesses. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll learn in this podcast: What Keith has been up to with Summit Evergreen and what Patrick has been up to with Appointment Reminder. How having children changed how we run our b...
2015-01-1553 minKalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 10: Putting the “Family” in Family BusinessKeith and I are back with the 10th episode of the podcast. This time we’re talking about our wives and kids, how much they mean to us (lots!), and how we try to fit being good husbands/fathers around our mutual desire to keep growing the businesses.[Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.]What you’ll learn in this podcast:What Keith has been up to with Summit Evergreen and what Patrick has been up to with Appointment Reminder.How having children changed how we run our b...
2015-01-1553 minKalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 9: Customer Onboarding With Samuel Hulick
Samuel Hulick, one of the guys I trust most with regards to SaaS user onboarding, joined us for this episode of the podcast. I met Sam first when he was writing a book on the topic. The best evidence I can give you for the proposition “Sam knows more than the vast majority of people about user onboarding experiences” is the fact that he’s written up 25+ of them publicly (e.g. Basecamp’s) and that the writeups are of very high caliber. Check them out sometime. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usu...
2014-10-151h 15Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 9: Customer Onboarding With Samuel HulickSamuel Hulick, one of the guys I trust most with regards to SaaS user onboarding, joined us for this episode of the podcast. I met Sam first when he was writing a book on the topic. The best evidence I can give you for the proposition “Sam knows more than the vast majority of people about user onboarding experiences” is the fact that he’s written up 25+ of them publicly (e.g. Basecamp’s) and that the writeups are of very high caliber. Check them out sometime.[Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as us...
2014-10-151h 15Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 7: Launching New ProductsKeith and I recorded a new episode of the podcast last year, but we didn’t get around to releasing it.[Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.]What you’ll learn in this podcast:How to pick a small, self-contained product, which is good to cut your teeth on as a dev-turned-entrepreneur.How Keith extracted Summit Evergreen out of his consulting work (improving infoproduct businesses).How to use concierge onboarding to increase conversions and decrease churn of SaaS businesses.That it is possible to build a very succ...
2014-06-191h 54Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 7: Launching New Products
Keith and I recorded a new episode of the podcast last year, but we didn’t get around to releasing it. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll learn in this podcast: How to pick a small, self-contained product, which is good to cut your teeth on as a dev-turned-entrepreneur. How Keith extracted Summit Evergreen out of his consulting work (improving infoproduct businesses). How to use concierge onboarding to increase conversions and decrease churn of SaaS businesses. That it is possible to build a very succe...
2014-06-191h 54Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 6: Teaching As MarketingHappily, there are many ways to productize your relationships with customers or your expertise as a consultant.[Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.]What you’ll learn in this podcast:Why vegetarians do not give great advice on pricing hotdogs, and Hacker News comments about the inadviability of selling information very rarely come from people with actual budget to buy informationWhy having multiple packaging options (for example, at an X / 2X / 5X ratio) increases total revenue from productsWhy you don’t have to be “Internet famous” to build an...
2013-08-271h 28Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast Episode 6: Teaching As Marketing
Happily, there are many ways to productize your relationships with customers or your expertise as a consultant. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll learn in this podcast: Why vegetarians do not give great advice on pricing hotdogs, and Hacker News comments about the inadviability of selling information very rarely come from people with actual budget to buy information Why having multiple packaging options (for example, at an X / 2X / 5X ratio) increases total revenue from products Why you don’t have to be “Internet famous...
2013-08-271h 28
Bootstrapped#15: Patrick McKenzie (patio11) on Selling SoftwareIan and Andrey are joined by special guest, Patrick McKenzie (patio11), to discuss the “early” days of the Business of Software forums, Patrick’s journey and daily routine, Helpdesk systems and support, Appointment Reminder, systemizing and automating daily tasks, SaaS, B2C vs. B2B, pricing of software, consulting, learning from Blackhats, Hacker News, marketing, Uberdeck, making money from open source, dual-licensing, running a conference, hacker meetups, Patrick’s biggest mistake in business, Patrick’s next product, and Facebook games.Special guest Patrick McKenzie (patio11) of Kalzumeus.Business of Software Forums – Joel on Software.Bingo Card Creator – Patrick’s first product.App...
2013-07-241h 52Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast 4: Apps That Matter, Angel Investing, and B2B Sales with Matt Wensing of Stormpulse
Matt Wensing from Stormpulse (disclaimer: I’m an investor, long story below) generously took some time off of managing the nation’s severe weather risks to appear on our podcast. (Keith Perhac couldn’t be with us when we taped this, as he was celebrating the birth of his second daughter.) It’s been about six months since our last episode but I think this probably makes up for it, as it’s a cracker of an episode. I apologize in advance for my audio quality — I was calling internationally from an iPhone. If you’re an audiophile, we ha...
2013-04-081h 36Kalzumeus SoftwareKalzumeus Podcast 4: Apps That Matter, Angel Investing, and B2B Sales with Matt Wensing of StormpulseMatt Wensing from Stormpulse (disclaimer: I’m an investor, long story below) generously took some time off of managing the nation’s severe weather risks to appear on our podcast. (Keith Perhac couldn’t be with us when we taped this, as he was celebrating the birth of his second daughter.) It’s been about six months since our last episode but I think this probably makes up for it, as it’s a cracker of an episode.I apologize in advance for my audio quality — I was calling internationally from an iPhone. If you’re an audiophile, we ha...
2013-04-081h 36Kalzumeus SoftwareRamit Sethi and Patrick McKenzie On Why Your Customers Would Be Happier If You Charged More
NYT bestselling author Ramit Sethi and I continued our earlier discussion about getting your first consulting client by addressing a common pain point for freelancers/consultants, particularly those just starting out: how do you price your offering? If you want me to tell you “You’re a Rails developer? $100 an hour if in Iowa, $150 an hour if in SOMA, best of luck” you’re in the wrong place, because you should have learned in our previous installment that you need to present yourself as someone solving business problems rather than as a mere technologist. Instead, we’re goi...
2012-09-2138 minKalzumeus SoftwareRamit Sethi and Patrick McKenzie On Why Your Customers Would Be Happier If You Charged More NYT bestselling author Ramit Sethi and I continued our earlier discussion about getting your first consulting client by addressing a common pain point for freelancers/consultants, particularly those just starting out: how do you price your offering? If you want me to tell you “You’re a Rails developer? $100 an hour if in Iowa, $150 an hour if in SOMA, best of luck” you’re in the wrong place, because you should have learned in our previous installment that you need to present yourself as someone solving business problems rather than as a mere technologist. Instead, we’re going to...
2012-09-2138 minKalzumeus SoftwareRamit Sethi and Patrick McKenzie on Getting Your First Consulting Client
Patrick notes: Hiya long-time blog readers. Last year I wrote two articles on career advice for young engineers, largely informed by conversations with a buddy of mine, Ramit Sethi. Over the last twelve months, I have tagged every message in Gmail I’ve gotten from someone who applied the advice in those articles to effect in their careers. Sample comments: “Your advice made me $20,000 in two minutes.”, “Your advice made me $35k”, etc etc. The running total is at about $280,000 (a year!), which makes those two articles probably my highest ROI ever from just writing blog posts. (n.b. If this we...
2012-09-1750 minKalzumeus SoftwareRamit Sethi and Patrick McKenzie on Getting Your First Consulting ClientPatrick notes: Hiya long-time blog readers. Last year I wrote two articles on career advice for young engineers, largely informed by conversations with a buddy of mine, Ramit Sethi.Over the last twelve months, I have tagged every message in Gmail I’ve gotten from someone who applied the advice in those articles to effect in their careers. Sample comments: “Your advice made me $20,000 in two minutes.”, “Your advice made me $35k”, etc etc. The running total is at about $280,000 (a year!), which makes those two articles probably my highest ROI ever from just writing blog posts. (n.b. If this w...
2012-09-1750 minKalzumeus SoftwareInaugural Kalzumeus Podcast: Japan, Startups, A/B Testing, And More
Hiya guys. My good friend Keith and I decided to do something a little different and tried recording a podcast. We’re still rather new at this, so it took for form of a freewheeling conversation. Major topics included: the experience of working at large and small tech companies in Japan the Japanese web application market career advice for programmers don’t call yourself a programmer us trying to sell you on starting A/B testing conversion optimization stories, including actionable tips which have actually worked for people a wee bit of generic geekery. The podcast weighs in at about...
2011-12-011h 17Kalzumeus SoftwareInaugural Kalzumeus Podcast: Japan, Startups, A/B Testing, And MoreHiya guys. My good friend Keith and I decided to do something a little different and tried recording a podcast. We’re still rather new at this, so it took for form of a freewheeling conversation. Major topics included: the experience of working at large and small tech companies in Japan the Japanese web application market career advice for programmers don’t call yourself a programmer us trying to sell you on starting A/B testing conversion optimization stories, including actionable tips which have actually worked for people a wee bit of generic geekery. The podcast weighs in at ab...
2011-12-011h 17