Shows
The Market HuddleThe Market Huddle Live With Rupert Mitchell & Paul KrakeJoin our live Q&A specials, streamed every month! This month we welcome Rupert Mitchell, Author of The Blind Squirrel Macro & Paul Krake, Founder of Climate Transformed!2024-12-2058 min
Der YeahFußball-PodcastR.I.P., Krake Paul! // #OTD
Wer “WM 2010” sagt, muss auch “Krake Paul” sagen. Der Krake aus dem Sea Life Center in Oberhausen mauserte sich während der Weltmeisterschaft 2010 zum wohl bekanntesten Tierorakel aller Zeiten. Er tippte alle acht Spiele der deutschen Nationalmannschaft richtig und wurde so auch international zu einem großen Star(fish). Auch wenn viele versuchten in seine Tentakelstapfen zu treten, schaffte es niemand so erfolgreich zu sein, wie unser Paule.
Am 26. Oktober 2010 ist Krake Paul in Oberhausen verstorben.
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Folge YeahFußball auf Bluesky, Instagram, WhatsApp oder Youtube. Wenn euch der Podcast gefäl...2024-10-2600 min
MutMachPodcastLindners Zeitzünder und Wagenknechts DilemmaChurchill und seine Bulldogge Dodo. Die Krake Spotify. Designer-Droge aus Osnabrück. Die fangfrische Wochenschau aus aus den Schöneberger Hinterhofstudios mit Paul und Hajo Schumacher sowie folgenden Themen: Hat Johannes Vogel einen Plan? Warum Trump noch Chancen hat. Was man alles falsch verstehen kann an der Frage: Willst Du Standard tanzen? Das beste Rührei der Welt. Grüner Strom als Investitionsargument. Biden kommt zum Abschied. Das Geheimnis des Wikingernamens Hajo Skyldarson. Abschied von einer dicken Katze Eartha. Plus: Politikerklärer Jörg Quoos verrät, was die Woche wichtig wird. Folge 834.Literaturempfehlungen: Suse S...2024-10-1433 min
The Market HuddleMH+ Ep.38 Schumpeter’s Dream (guest: Paul Krake)On this weeks Huddle +, Kevin welcomes back to the show, founder of View From The Peak, Paul Krake. They discuss the evolving landscape of AI, the energy transition, and the innovative fuel sources that could support it.
Follow Paul on Substack: https://www.twitter.com/Viewfromthepeak
*Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com
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To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/2024-05-1544 min
Cor PotcastBad Boy TD (ft. Paul Bosvelt) | Cor Potcast | S05E06Wat krijg je als een voormalig bad boy in een bestuurlijke functie zet? Juist, Paul Bosvelt. In een warme studio namen we op met de voormalig speler van onder meer Manchester City en Feyenoord om te praten over het leven naast voetbal, beslissende momenten in zijn carrière en het technisch directeurschap bij Go Ahead Eagles!We beginnen met de grootste passie van Paul: vissen. Hoe je vist, met welk materiaal, welke maten je aan je zijde moet hebben, het heeft allemaal grote invloed op hoe je een visdag beleefd. Geloof ons, niemand kan d...2023-09-1559 min
My Worst Investment Ever PodcastPaul Krake – Surround Yourself With Experienced PeopleBIO: Paul Krake is a global strategist focusing on mega themes of climate, China, digitization, and demographics.STORY: Paul quit a prestigious job where he had seasoned mentors to start a hedge fund. After a few years, he realized he wasn’t mature enough or emotionally prepared to run a business on his own.LEARNING: Surround yourself with people who are more experienced than you are. Think about all the scenarios where an investment can go wrong. “For every good idea out there, there are a million ways (that you can’t think a...2023-05-0338 min
Climate TransformedCiti Bike: Urban Mobility as Climate TechLaura Fox is Lyft’s outgoing General Manager for Citi Bike, and she joins Paul for a wide-ranging conversation around urban mobility. We dive into Urban mobility as climate tech – the landscape, frameworks, what’s needed, and what’s next. This is so much more than encouraging commuters to bike. It is the center of a broader strategy to reduce congestion and make urban environments self-sustaining.2023-04-1447 min
Reden über Deutschland - Paul Brandenburg LivePaul Brandenburg live #25: „Gesundheit gegen Freiheit – die Komplizen WHO und WEF“Die sogenannte Weltgesundheitsorganisation der Vereinten Nationen und die Wirtschafts-Lobby WEF arbeiten offiziell zusammen. Unter dem Deckmantel der Gesundheitsförderung kämpfen sie gemeinsam gegen Demokratie und Selbstbestimmung. Anstelle gewählter Volksvertreter soll eine Weltregierung ungewählter Funktionäre über unsere Freiheit und unser Geld bestimmen – wann immer es angeblich um „Gesundheit“ geht. Die Inszenierung der sogenannten Corona-Pandemie scheint dabei nur der Auftakt gewesen zu sein. Wie funktioniert die Komplizenschaft dieser Organisationen? Was wissen wir über ihre weiteren Pläne? Paul Brandenburg diskutiert mit Miryam Muhm, Journalistin und Autorin des jüngst erschienenen Buches „Die Krake von Davos“.2023-02-0852 min
NachholspielFolge 153: Wettbude unter Wasser - Kraken-Orakel Paul
Bei der WM 2010 wurde gefühlt kein Spiel angepfiffen, bevor die Tinte unter dem Tipp von Krake Paul trocken war. Nicht weniger als achtmal orakelte der Tintenfisch aus dem Sea Life Center in Oberhausen die richtige Mannschaft. Darunter fünf Siege für Deutschland. Auch Spanien sagten die Tiefsee-Tiki-Tika-Tentakel als Weltmeister voraus. Dafür wurde ihm in einem spanischen Dorf irgendwo zwischen Villarriba und Villabajo sogar ein Denkmal gebaut.
Fußball-Orakel sind einmalige phantastische Tierwesen mit hellseherischen Kräften. Ausreißerkuh Yvonne, Eber Funtik, die taube Katze Achilles, Helm-Peter, Elefant Nelly und natürlich Vielfraß-Elch Konstantin aus dem Wildpark Potzberg...2022-11-1235 min
NachholspielFolge 153: Wettbude unter Wasser – Kraken-Orakel PaulBei der WM 2010 wurde gefühlt kein Spiel angepfiffen, bevor die Tinte unter dem Tipp von Krake Paul trocken war. Nicht weniger als achtmal orakelte der Tintenfisch aus dem Sea Life Center in Oberhausen die richtige Mannschaft. Darunter fünf Siege für Deutschland. Auch Spanien sagten die Tiefsee-Tiki-Tika-Tentakel als Weltmeister voraus. Dafür wurde ihm in einem spanischen Dorf irgendwo zwischen Villarriba und Villabajo sogar ein Denkmal gebaut.Fußball-Orakel sind einmalige phantastische Tierwesen mit hellseherischen Kräften. Ausreißerkuh Yvonne, Eber Funtik, die taube Katze Achilles, Helm-Peter, Elefant Nelly und natürlich Vielfraß-Elch Konstantin aus dem Wildpark Potzberg...2022-11-1235 min
NachholspielFolge 153: Wettbude unter Wasser – Kraken-Orakel Paul
Bei der WM 2010 wurde gefühlt kein Spiel angepfiffen, bevor die Tinte unter dem Tipp von Krake Paul trocken war. Nicht weniger als achtmal orakelte der Tintenfisch aus dem Sea Life Center in Oberhausen die richtige Mannschaft. Darunter fünf Siege für Deutschland. Auch Spanien sagten die Tiefsee-Tiki-Tika-Tentakel als Weltmeister voraus. Dafür wurde ihm in einem spanischen Dorf irgendwo zwischen Villarriba und Villabajo sogar ein Denkmal gebaut.
Fußball-Orakel sind einmalige phantastische Tierwesen mit hellseherischen Kräften. Ausreißerkuh Yvonne, Eber Funtik, die taube Katze Achilles, Helm-Peter, Elefant Nelly und natürlich Vielfraß-Elch Konstantin aus dem Wildpark Potzberg...2022-11-1235 min
Climate TransformedGold Standard: Twenty Years of Evolving StandardsMaggie Kim, the CEO of Gold Standard, joins Paul for a conversation about the vital role the company has played in the evolution of standards for carbon offsets. Verification standards continue to adapt to scientific rigour, digitization and public policy and the complexities of offsets are often underappreciated by a marketplace keen on standardization. No segment of the decarbonization process faces scrutiny like carbon offsets, and they discuss these complexities through the lens of all stakeholders2022-11-1050 min
The Market HuddleIt’s All About Bottlenecks (guest: Paul Krake)This week we welcome back Paul Krake from View from the Peak. We have a delightfully entertaining discussion about opportunities in the climate markets, and why Paul thinks the right tail risk for the stock market is woefully underappreciated.
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*Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com
To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/2022-10-072h 23
Climate TransformedS2G: The Evolution of this Groundbreaking VCS2G and Builders Private Capital are two of the largest private mission-driven investment vehicles dedicated to building a more humane and healthy planet. They have back trailblazing entrepreneurs pursuing innovative market-based solutions that generate positive social, environmental, and financial returns in climate and energy, food and agriculture, oceans and seafood. They have back iconic sustainability brands such as Beyond Meat, Sweetgreen, Brimstone, Benson Hill, Orange EV and dozens of others. Stephan Fellhauer, the head of Renewable Energy, joins Paul to discuss the firm’s impact and its goals as one the largest deployers of early stage, growth equity an...2022-09-2043 min
'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseWhere are the faultlines?The Paul's discuss pressure points as the US and EU head towards recessions and we leap forward 12 months to discuss the opportunities2022-07-1123 min
Market Champions213|China, Digitization, Demographics, Climate Change ft. Paul Krake with Srivatsan PrakashPaul has over 25 years’ experience as an economic and political strategist. He founded View from the Peak in 2011, seeing a need for a truly global, multi-asset class research platform that focuses on the interactions between public policy, economic trends, technology, and geopolitics. View from the Peak takes its name from Victoria Peak, the highest point on Hong Kong Island and the firm aims to look at the world from a 360-degree view with an Asian perspective. Prior to that he traded under trading legends like Bruce Kovner and Louis Bacon!2022-07-111h 00'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseThe Death of Financial EngineeringThe Paul's discuss the decline of VC, financial engineering versus capital expenditure and debate whether there is any debate about transitory inflation2022-05-2027 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseInflation v Recession Is the mindset shifting?The Paul's discuss whether equities are pricing recession risks and the market consequences of Roe v Wade2022-05-0535 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseInverted Yields Curves and Will SmithThe Pauls discuss inverted yield curves, forward growth dynamics and of course, Will Smith2022-03-3132 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseNot another inflation debateThe Pauls discuss inverted yield curves, the resilience of equities in the face of higher interest rates, tight global food markets, and omnipresent inflation.2022-03-2838 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseIs China Uninvestible and other stupid questionsThe Paul's address the rumored demise of a large asset manager due to China exposure. Just how cheap are Chinese Tech stocks and the US and China head out for pasta.2022-03-1830 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseCommodity Market Dislocation2022-03-1032 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseThe Epic Miscalculations of Vladimir Putin2022-03-0330 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseUkraine and Commodity Inflation2022-02-2824 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseWhy does the Fed have to shrink its balance sheet?2022-02-2130 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseProject Hamilton - Just how badly is the US messing up digital currency?The Paul's discuss the Boston Fed's White Paper on the digital USD, how it is a black eye for fintech and innovation and a huge win for established banks.2022-02-1132 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseThe Rise of Digital Property Generational War and Leaving the US Behind2022-02-0434 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseMarket Volatility, Reckless Leverage and Clothless EmperorsThe Paul's discuss the unruly start to the investing year and some of the 2021 stupidity that is coming home to roost. Equities appear to be telling a much different story than fixed income regarding the trajectory of the Fed.2022-02-0231 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseThe Philosophy of Chinese ContainmentThe Paul's discuss HR McMaster and the notions of containing China.2022-01-2137 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseOmicron is a Dud and Chinese BadassesThe Paul's discuss the idiocy of zero covid policies, Hardcore badass from Xinjiang made head of HK PLA garrison, and the trajectory of Fed policy. Something for everyone.2022-01-1328 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseOverrated risks in 2022As we turn the page for the new year, cue the panic of all the risks to the global economy, asset markets, and our very way of life. Paul and Paul hit the reset button and go through the things that you don't have to worry about including the Fed, inflation, tech regulation and all things geo-politics.2022-01-0733 min
Investing Transformed2021 US-China Review and Outlook for the Year AheadOn December 9th, Paul hosted an outstanding China panel to review the year for the US-China relationship and what we can expect in 2022. We were proud to host, Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund), Naomi Wilson (ITI), Barbara Finamore and Michal Meidan (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), Nina Xiang (China Money Network) and Courtney McCaffrey (EY).
Our discussion covered the outlook for Tech, Investment, the Supply Chain, Climate, and the Geopolitical framework, every driver of the investment outlook in 2022.
This was not just an all-female panel. It is the best panel we could put together to discuss every facet of the...2021-12-131h 27'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseWhy the Metaverse is heading to 40% of global GDP?Schulte discusses his seminar at Lee Kuan Yew University with a slew of Asian Metaverse Gurus. Why the Metaverse is heading to 40% of global GDP? Web 3.0 / Metaverse is living in the content that why2021-12-0629 min
Investing TransformedPeter Boockvar - The inflation debatePeter Boockvar is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group. He has been critical of Fed policy in the past, and his prior work with the likes of Larry Lindsey makes him uniquely positioned to do so.
Not only did Peter articulate a solid argument while inflation will be with us for longer than certainly, I expect, but in a roundabout way, drew a similar conclusion to myself that the Federal Reserve will tighten by much less than what the market is currently pricing. We have very different views on the inflation outlook and yet come to a similar...2021-12-0648 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseSchulte discuss his new book, Money MetaverseThe Paul's discuss Schulte's new book published this week, Money Metaverse. Winners in the space, what insurance is doing wrong, and the revolution that is before us.2021-11-2931 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseHow messed up can the Metaverse become?Schulte dives into the current failings of proptech, and insurtech and discusses his favorite "documentary", Ready Player One. While Krake goes to a dark place about how screwed up the metaverse can become.2021-11-1827 min
Investing TransformedPodcast - Investing Transformed: Todd EdgarTodd Edgar joins for a conversation about life, careers, and the underpinnings of a successful investor. Todd has managed capital and overseen businesses at some of the world's leading firms, including Bankers Trust, JP Morgan, Tutor, and for a decade with his own macro hedge fund, Atreaus Capital.
Now running his own family office, Todd reflects on the different stages of his career and we look forward to the ways we should embrace crypto and climate investing. I am biased, but Todd is one of the most thoughtful investors I know, and this conversation is all about the psychology and...2021-11-1853 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseMeta has some friends and US warships in a Chinese desert.The Paul's pay Meta (Facebook to you old-timers) a compliment over Meta, chat about Xi Jinping consolidating power again, and fake American warships in the middle of the Gobi Desert.2021-11-1125 min
Investing TransformedPodcast - Neil Azous: Rareview CapitalNeil Azous is the Founder of Rareview Capital, a registered investment adviser, and ETF sponsor. His distinguished career is explored as Neil and Paul delve into the skillset required to be a genuinely unique investor, the deficiencies of the off-the-shelf approach embraced by the majority of advisors and the multi-asset framework of Rareview Capital.2021-11-0859 min'Merica, Mao and the MetaverseLisbon Web Summit, Meta Bashing and Xi's Absence from COP26Paul Krake and Paul Schulte discuss Schulte's trip to Lisbon for the Web Summit where he found a full-frontal assault on all things Meta, hyper-bullish venture capital leadership, and 30,000 people who just glad to be traveling again. COP26 has dominated Krake's thinking and he's struggling to hide his disappointment about the inaction of global leadership and the absence of Xi Jinping.2021-11-0522 min
Investing TransformedPodcast - Investing For Action Not Words _ Eoin MurrayShareholders v Stakeholders. Green Marketing v Impactful Investment. Allocators are rightfully skeptical about the true intentions of managers and whether their priorities are making a difference. Investing for change has been a passion for Eoin Murray, the Head of Investment, International at Federated Hermes. Eoin joins Paul to discuss how large capital pools can be a force for change.2021-10-2848 min
Investing TransformedPodcast - The Future Of Crypo In AsiaWith China's draconian bans on cryptocurrencies, many fear that this is a potential precursor to tougher regulation abroad. No topic generates more hype and divergence of opinion than Crypto and Asia has been and remains a key center for innovation.
Paul is joined by Zennon Kapron of Kapron Asia to discuss developments in the region. Kapronasia is a leading Asia fintech-focused strategic consulting firm covering payments, banking, capital markets, and blockchain technology.2021-10-0853 min
Investing TransformedLong Volatility As An Asymmetrical Return Profile: Neale Jackson 36SouthIn the midst of an unprecedented bull market in risky assets, tail protection has never been more important even if the source of those risks can be clouded by Central Bank Liquidity. 36 South specializes in the creation and management of asymmetrical portfolios with an emphasis on crisis protection and we are joined by Portfolio Manager, Neale Jackson to discuss ways to protect against outlier scenarios.2021-10-0242 min
Investing TransformedThe Outlook for Chinese and Asian EquityJohn M. Malloy is the Co-Head of Emerging and Frontier Markets at RWC Partners. Based in Miami, John is one of the most knowledgable and esteemed emerging market investors with a 25 year plus career that has seen every boom and bust for the sector. A consistent alpha generator, John joins Paul to discuss the opportunities, misconceptions, and diversification opportunities in China, Asia, and the Emerging World.2021-09-2153 min
Investing TransformedMike Edwards - Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy AdvisersMike Edwards is the Deputy CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers and joins Paul for a wide-ranging conversation about the future of yield. From the beginning of his career as a tech banker in San Francisco, China has played a central role in his global analysis. It continues to do so as Weiss is a leading innovator in the search for alternative sources of yield.2021-09-1654 min
Macro VoicesMacroVoices #288 Paul Krake: Mega themes for 2020sMacroVoices Erik Townsend and this week's guest host Kevin Muir welcome View from the Peak founder Paul Krake to the show to discuss what Paul calls megathematics, the important trends to watch in the current macro environment.
Link: https://bit.ly/3yZmuWz
2021-09-091h 07
Traders HorizonS1E6 | Paul Krake: "When can we finally admit that Milton Friedman was wrong?"This week’s guest is Paul Krake, an economic and political strategist, who in 2011 founded View from the Peak, a multi-asset-class research platform with offices in Hong Kong, Chicago and London, that focuses on the interactions between public policy, economic trends, technology and geopolitics. Prior to forming View from the Peak, Paul spent 15 years in investment banking and asset management, a time during which he covered a variety of roles, including being management partner at Corus Capital Management, a hedge fund based in New York, having also worked at Caxton, Moore Capital Management, Goldman Sachs and Macquarie bank.
...2021-08-131h 02
The Market HuddleNailing Jello To The Wall (guest: Paul Krake)In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome US-China Series co-founder, Paul Krake. They have a fascinating discussion about his career at some of the most prestigious hedge funds, and his unique view of how the macro landscape will unfold in coming years2021-05-212h 11
FEG Insight BridgeView from China with Paul KrakeFEG’s 2020 Approachable Asia event was scheduled for this fall in Singapore, where we planned on venturing abroad to learn first-hand about the unique challenges and opportunities of international investing in a board room setting. Our goal was to provide clients the opportunity to meet with top investment and economic leaders, including local asset managers and companies. With the Coronavirus pandemic, we have opted to offer the same content through our Approachable Asia podcast series. Skip the flight and enjoy the conversation!***In this episode, we chat with a leading expert on all things Chi...2020-11-0243 min
US-China SeriesTaiwan - Stuck In The MiddleImmediately before our US-China Series Virtual Forum on China’s Semiconductor Vulnerabilities, a White Paper that was published earlier today by the Center of Strategic and International Studies or, more specifically, a Report of the CSIS Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan titled Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship.
Led by a friend of US-China Series, Bonnie Glasser, “The focus of this task force is on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, which should be driven by a clear assessment of American interests. These interests include ensuring that Taiwan remains a secure, stable, healthy, resilient, prosperous, and innovative demo...2020-10-2740 min
US-China SeriesUS-China Series: A History and Future of Chinese Listings in United StatesUS-China Series, the US-China Business Council and RWC Partners present a unique panel discussion on Chinese Listings in the United States. Moderated by Alison Schonberg, Claudius Modesti, a partner at Akin Group and Liza Mark, a partner in Shanghai at Haynes and Boone, walk us through an hour long presentation on the regulatory history and framework for Chinese companies to list at US exchanges.
The reputation of Chinese company listings on US Exchanges has been tarnished by some high profile bad apples. Is it too much to ask for Chinese companies to have the same accounting standards as their peers...2020-09-301h 01US-China SeriesRMB Bond PanelOn Thursday, September 24th, US-China Series and US China Business Council hosted a half-day virtual forum on the future of Chinese capital markets. We had panels on the RMB Bond Market, Global Macro Opportunities, Hong Kong's role in Chinese capital formation, and a fascinating discussion on the history and legality behind the future of Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges. #
As fate would have it, September 24th was also when FTSE Russell announced that it would include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) to its flagship WGBI index. Estimates from Goldman Sachs predict that the eventual weighting will be 5.7%, which implies $140bn...2020-09-2959 minUS-China SeriesUS-China Series - Chemical Supply ChainChemicals / Industrial Inputs: Key Catalyst for Supply Chain Operations panel for the joint US-China Series / US-China Business Council, virtual forum, Your Chinese Supply Chain: Complexities and Challenges. Held on September 10th.
Moderator – Lisa Schroeter
Ed Brzytwa- American Chemistry Council
Jason Alexander - RSM
Hun Quach - Under Armour2020-09-2059 minUS-China SeriesUS-China Series: The Agricultural Supply ChainAgriculture – Realizing the Potential of American Agriculture
It should be a golden age for American farmers. How does the US agricultural industry avoid being caught in the middle of a shifting geo-political landscape?
Moderator – Doug Bell - EY
Dr. Wendong Zhang – Iowa State University
Margaret Myers – The Dialogue
Mara Hvistendahl – Author of the Scientist and the Spy2020-09-1754 minUS-China SeriesUS China Series - Interview with Co-Chairs of the House of Representatives US-China Working GroupCraig Allen, President of the US-China Business Council, and Paul Krake, founder of the US-China Series, interviewed the Co-Chairs of the House of Representative US-China Working Group, Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA2), and Representative Darin LaHood (R-I18). We discuss issues the bi-partisan objectives of the working group, strategic vulnerabilities, free trade and tariffs, and a slew of issues facing policymakers at this time.2020-09-1156 min
US-China SeriesThe WeChat Ban - Legalities, Practicalities and ConsequencesUS-China Series, in conjunction with WSCRC, hosted a panel on the ban of WeChat. We will discuss the rationale, consequences, legalities, and practicalities of the ban and what this means for users and the parent company Tencent.
For all the attention that the proposed Tik Tok ban garnered with President Trump’s Executive Order on August 6th, the issues for corporate America, for Americans with connections to China as well as the for Chinese diaspora in the US run much deeper if they face restrictions on the use of WeChat, arguably, the world’s most influential app. With a user base...2020-09-041h 15
US-China SeriesFroth and Bubble in Electric VehiclesPaul is joined by Tu Le of Sino Auto Insights for a discussion about the current exuberance surrounding the global electric vehicle markets. We do our best to put Tesla to one side and discuss the Li Auto IPO, the euphoria over Rivian, and we dive into the prospect of more established Chinese EV brands such as XPeng and WM.
With the change of leadership at Ford, we debate whether there is any way for the OEMs to bridge the gap.2020-08-0826 min
US-China SeriesUS-China Series - Inaugural PodcastIt’s time for a new approach to one of the central drivers of the 21st century.
The US-China Series is a sequence of events designed to provide a forum for thoughtful debate and critical dialogue.
The world’s foremost experts will convene to delve into issues like Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Bilateral Investment, Trade Policy, Health and Medicine, and National Security and Diplomacy to provide a sensible, wide-ranging and nuanced discussion on how to move forward.
The future of the most important relationship of the 21st century is not limited to the Washington Beltway. Business leaders, policymakers, institutional investors, and ac...2019-10-1839 min
US-China SeriesVFTP Flagship - June 6th 2019Strategy Piece for June 6th2019-06-0608 min
US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - The Pitfalls of Xi Jinping and One Man Rule with Jude BlanchetteAn Expert Series Podcast with Jude Blanchette, Head of the China Practice at the Crumpton Group in Washington. Our topic today is the dominance of Xi Jinping and the structural concerns that one man, authoritarian rule creates for China, both domestically and abroad. This discussion, which I believe is one of our best, looks at the current constructs of the Chinese Communist Party, the dismantling of leadership governance, the absence of a viable opposition and the prospect and consequences of a leadership challenge in the context of a this vacuum. Jude answers a question I have been struggling with for...2018-12-151h 07US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series Podcast - Part 1 - The Future Of Battery TechnologyDr. Kent Griffith obtained his PhD in Chemistry at Cambridge University, doing research concerned with fundamental insights into complex energy storage materials. Batteries are part of everything we do, and this will be the first of a four-part series. This is something I have been looking forward to for a while now and in Part One, Kent focuses on battery fundamentals. I thought I knew how batteries work. Kent opened my eyes and provides a strong foundation into his exploration of the future direction of batteries over the next several weeks2018-11-171h 12US-China SeriesThe Future of Battery Technology: Part 2In Part 2 of our four-part series, Dr. Kent Griffith focuses on the underlying commodities used in Lithium Ion batteries and the alternatives. He discusses the pros and cons of commodities such as cobalt, manganese, nickel and iron and the relative supply / demand dynamics of each. This is an excellent lead into Part 3 and 4 which will cover where the technology is heading over the next decade and beyond.2018-11-1759 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Interview with Jim Bianco of Bianco ReseachPaul chats with JIm Bianco, Founder of Chicago based Bianco Research for a discussion on his unique approach to assessing fixed income markets and the overall health of the US economy. Jim pushes back on the consensus using a series a eclectic methods, predominantly involving search engine data. Jim works on the premise that our search engines don't lie and the result is a truly differentiated research offering.2018-11-0745 minUS-China SeriesPodcast with Bob Savage of Track ResearchPaul interview Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research for a wide ranging discussion on Cryptocurrencies and why he has launched a Crypto Business to the future of Independent Research in a world dominated by data and MIFID and of course, the prevailing macro environment2018-11-0446 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Jacob Kirkegaard - Brexit UpdateRegular Expert Series contributor, Jacob Kirkegaard returns for his assessment of a vital week in Brexit negotiation. Jacob has reinforced my thinking that the prevailing situation for the UK is migrating from a slow moving train wreck to something more urgent. This interview was conducted the morning of October 17th, the day of the EU leaders meeting in Brussels, the day we were meant to get confirmation of a final deal. This is clearly not the case. Jacob walks through scenarios for the next few months which he believes ends with financial market pressures leading to the UK capitulating, the...2018-10-2640 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Deborah Elms - US / China trade relations and AsiaThe Expert Series welcomed back Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre for a discussion on US – China trade relations and the implications for Asia.
Two things that are particularly interesting, from the Q&A session, include the fact that the Trump administration has inserted a clause into the new USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) which prohibits Canada and Mexico from establishing trade agreements with non-market economies, which is clearly aimed at China. Secondly, Paul and Deborah look at the winners and losers across the region. Those countries that will embrace the opportunities as supply chains look for alternatives away from Ch...2018-10-231h 03US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Saul Eslake - Australian Economic OutlookFor a discussion on the outlook for the Australian economy, the Expert Series welcomed back Saul Eslake of Corinna Economic Advisory. Saul has a long career as an economist, covering the Australian economy at ANZ and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, among others.
Saul’s presentation covers every base you need to look at to gauge the state of Australia’s economy. Most importantly, Saul gives an in-depth, measured assessment of the housing market, tempering some of the excessively bearish views people have on Australian property.2018-10-171h 13US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Jacob Kirkegaard - The Italian budget proposalThe Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for a discussion on the Italian budget proposal and recent developments in Italy’s coalition government.
In the half hour discussion, Jacob reviews the outlook for the Italian budget deficit and the likely response from the EU Commission and the ECB, the rise of the Five Star Movement within the coalition and finally the outlook for an early election.2018-10-1033 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Martin Chorzempa - The crisis in Chinese P2P lending has arrivedFor a discussion on the developing crisis in the Chinese Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending space, we welcomed back Expert Series regular Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute.
In this conversation, Martin outlines a few scary scenarios for the future of the business which has seen total loans fall by about 25% to RMB 900bn in the last 3 months as the industry has come to a standstill. He discusses the current crisis and underlying causes, the inadequate regulatory response and the outlook for industry.2018-10-0332 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Luis F. de Mesa - Brazil Election PreviewPaul was joined at the Expert Series by Luis Fernandez de Mesa of Pembroke Emerging Markets LLP to discuss Brazil’s upcoming elections.
Among others Luis discusses how close the race is between the four candidates, the disruption caused by the stabbing of candidate Bolsonaro, the outlook for the now hospitalized Mr Bolsonaro and for Mr Haddad – the replacement of former president Lula – and if he can garner enough support from his party. Towards the end Luis discusses the outlook for the equity market.2018-09-2843 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Scott Morris -The Debt Dynamics of the Belt and Road InitiativePaul was joined at the Expert Series by Scott Morris of the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C. to discuss the debt dynamics of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The fifth anniversary of the announcement of the BRI sees the program mired in suspicion, exaggeration, and unviability. The discussion, based off the findings of the Center’s work published in March 2018, covers China’s new role as a sovereign creditor, the Chinese financial architecture, debt considerations of countries with Belt and Road funding, the actual scale of BRI, the commercial viability of many projects and some of the...2018-09-261h 02US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Chad Bown - Trade Update: A Few Scary ScenariosTo discuss the latest developments on NAFTA and US - China trade, the Expert Series hosted trade guru Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Most of the discussion focuses on the progress of the US’ trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada. The most interesting part of the discussion is on the outlook for Auto tariffs, which are becoming increasingly likely given the focus on the “rules of origin” procedures between the US and Mexico. Chad inadvertently paints a few really scary scenarios in which the Trump administration would put up blanket tariffs against all US...2018-09-2137 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Robert Ciemniak - China Housing: Three GamesFor an update on the latest developments in the Chinese housing market, Paul welcomed back Robert Ciemniak. Robert is the CEO of Real Estate Foresight, who provide the most granular independent research on China housing markets. They apply advanced data analytics tools and combine data science and technology with on-the-ground research, with a track record in accurately forecasting the Chinese housing markets.
Today’s discussion revolves around the three major narratives that can be observed in the housing market today, or as Robert calls it; The Three Games. The first game is the “Whack-a-Mole” policy of smoothing out prices across China...2018-09-1255 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Strategist Series, Bob Savage – Lessons learned over the summerFor a conversation on the prevailing macro environment, Paul hosted his good friend Bob Savage. Bob is the CEO of CC Track, a quantitative service focusing on supporting FX trading. Bob is a highly experienced Macro and FX analyst, having previously worked at Goldman Sachs, Lehman, and BoA as a Macro FX Sales manager and FX prop trader for over two decades.
Among others Paul and Bob discuss US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s move to a more discretionary methodology to conduct monetary policy, something which Bob thinks is incredibly significant. Furthermore, they touch on several global risk factors; Bob’s ne...2018-09-041h 01US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Isaac Stone Fish - China's use of Soft PowerFor this edition of the Expert Series, Paul welcomed Isaac Stone Fish for a discussion on Chinese Soft power. Isaac is a journalist and a senior fellow at the Asia Society's Center on US-China Relations in New York; he is also a contributor to CBSN, an international affairs analyst for PRI's The World and a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Soft power in a Chinese context was first discussed by former president Hu Jintao, and is concerned with the development of a positive Chinese narrative around the globe. Isaac discusses how and where China uses Soft power to...2018-08-2947 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Strategist Series, Bert Lourenco - The Outlook for UK and European rates.For a discussion on UK and European sovereign fixed income and credit markets, The VFTP Strategist Series welcomed European interest rate strategist Bert Lourenco. Bert gives a great level of detail and nuance, emphasizing what drives supply and demand in these markets, and thus what drives the shape of the curve.
Paul and Bert start the discussion with who are the natural buyers of European fixed income, and how this has influenced the shape of interest rate curves in the UK and the EU. They also discuss Brexit and the pickle in which Mark Carney finds himself, the rise of...2018-08-2343 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Strategist Series, Keith Grindlay - Macro beyond the daily grindFor the inaugural edition of the VFTP Strategist Series, Paul welcomed Keith Grindlay, MD at Macro Thoughts, an independent macro research firm in London.
Paul and Keith discuss what Keith thinks are the key drivers of asset markets for the years to come, China’s growing influence on the world through Belt and Road, and the increasing impact that Chinese policy has on the global economy, something which Keith thinks is still underestimated by many investors. Next, they discuss Europe at length; the structural issues, how those issues are affected the growth in populism, and how that in turn affects as...2018-08-2158 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Michal Meidan - China and the LNG marketFor a discussion on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, but from China's perspective, the Expert Series welcomed back Dr Michal Meidan. Michal leads analysis of Asian energy policies and geopolitics at Energy Aspects, with a particular focus on China.
Among others, Paul and Michal discuss China’s transition from coal to natural gas, the impact of last years' LNG shortages and what the Chinese government will do to prevent those shortages from happening again, the influence of the trade dispute on LNG prices, and where China gets its LNG from. Furthermore, they also touch on Russia, Europe, and th...2018-08-1752 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series , Samm Sacks - China's Data Privacy ProvisionsFor part two of our Expert Series discussion on China’s Social Credit System, with an emphasis on data protection and data privacy, Paul hosted Samm Sacks, senior fellow in the Technology Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Samm's research focuses on innovation, cybersecurity, and emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, with an emphasis on China.
Firstly, Samm discusses what data protection and data privacy mean in China. Next, she reviews the regulatory landscape. She then puts China’s data protection system in a global context and discusses how it compares to Europe’s GDPR...2018-08-0849 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Jacob Kirkegaard - Update on the Brexit sagaFor a discussion on the latest developments of Brexit, the Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Jacob and Paul discuss three possible Brexit scenario’s, none of which are good for Mrs. May and the Conservative Party. The first is a Norway-style half in / half out arrangement, the second scenario is the muddle through option, and the third is the nuclear option of a hard Brexit.2018-08-0135 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, James Heneghan - Soybeans on the frontline of trade disputeFor this edition of the Expert Series, we hosted James Heneghan, SVP Agriculture at Gro Intelligence. Gro is the go-to source for global agricultural intelligence. Gro’s leading edge software automatically harvests vast amounts of disparate agricultural data, transforms it into knowledge, and generates predictions for volatile markets, and thus insight in the availability and price of agricultural products.
James titled today’s discussion “Soybeans on the front line of the US China tariff dispute.” What follows is a wide-ranging discussion, covering the impact of the tariffs on the global soybean pricing and production in the US, but also Brazil and Arge...2018-07-3135 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Stephen Sestanovich - US / Russia relations post Helsinki SummitPaul was joined at the Expert Series by Ambassador Stephen Sestanovich. the George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.
Ambassador Sestanovich discusses the results of, and reactions to, the Trump-Putin Summit and what comes next on the diplomatic front between the US and Russia; how the meeting fits into the broader context of Russian foreign policy, and finally, President Putin’s domestic agenda. With the World Cup and Summit over, Mr. Pu...2018-07-2541 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Martin Chorzempa - China’s Social Credit System, part 1For deep dive into China’s Social Credit System, we will have a two-part discussion with two leading think tank fellows on the subject. For the opening part, we hosted Martin Chorzempa, Research Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Martin is an expert in financial innovation and specializes on developments in China.
For part 1, Martin Chorzempa explores what a Social Credit System is, why the Chinese government needs to resort to such a rigorous method, deemed an all-seeing panopticon – a surveillance system that automatically punishes everyone that does not fall into line - by local media, to govern its people, and the...2018-07-1058 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Chad Bown - Global Trade Update – An inevitable escalationPaul was joined at the Expert Series by frequent guest, Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute where his research examines international trade laws and institutions, trade negotiations, and trade disputes.
Chad was with us to discuss the recent US trade actions and the ensuing retaliation from the EU, Canada and China. There are very few people in the think tank community who have a better handle on global trade issues than Chad.2018-07-0440 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Oriana Skylar Mastro - Trump - Kim Summit: China's PerspectivePaul was joined on the Expert Series by Pentagon China Analyst and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, to discuss last week’s historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un. Dr. Mastro’s work is focused on analyzing strategic developments in Asia from the perspective of the Chinese and ascertaining what drives their strategy and rationale on critical security issues.
In this discussion, Dr. Mastro describes the relationship between China and North Korea and what each party is trying to accomplish bilaterally, and with other powers that...2018-06-2057 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, David Stockton – The US Economy: Turning up the HeatThe View from the Peak Expert Series hosted regular contributor David Stockton of the Peterson Institute for an update on the state of the US economy. David Stockton is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and is also chief economist at LH Meyer. He was previously senior adviser at Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.
Thorough as ever, David gives us an excellent overview of the current state of the US Economy, and as can be deducted from the title, he is quite positive on the outlook for the US economy.2018-06-151h 02US-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Jacob Kirkegaard – European Political Update: Italy and SpainIn what turned out to be a very timely call, the View from the Peak Expert Series hosted Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, for a discussion on the latest developments in the political landscapes of Italy and Spain.
Jacob shares a positive outlook for Spain but is very bearish on the prospects of Italy. As Paul put it: “Jacob, we’ve been talking for nearly three years now on developments across Italy and beyond, and I have never heard you sound more bearish…”2018-06-1245 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Luis F. De Mesa - A Primer on the Mexican ElectionsThe Mexican general elections will be held on July 1st of this year. The Mexican people will elect a new President, 128 members of the Senate, and 500 members of the Lower House, among others.
To discuss the most important issues regarding the Mexican Election, the Expert Series welcomed Luis Fernandez de Mesa, Portfolio Manager at Pembroke Emerging Markets LLP, where he focusses on Latin-America, primarily investing in equities.
In this Mexican election preview, Luis first gives us a general overview of the presidential elections. He then runs through several possible election scenario’s. Finally, he discusses how to strategically play Mexico.2018-06-0746 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Michael Nicoletos - Turkey: Economic and Political UpdateThe Expert Series hosted Michael Nicoletos, Founder and CIO of AppleTree Capital in London. AppleTree specializes in Emerging Market absolute return strategies. Michael focuses on investing in Eastern and Southern European economies.
In this discussion, Michael reviews the upcoming elections, fiscal policy and the Central Bank, the Turkish economy and nature of the debt, and the possibility of contagion across Europe and Emerging Markets, among others. This is a situation that anyone investing in Europe and Emerging Markets should keep a close eye on, and Michael does an excellent job of explaining what the important pressure points are right now.2018-06-0532 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series, Bonnie Glaser – South China Sea and Taiwan Strait & KoreaTensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait & the Korean détente
The Expert Series welcomed back Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia and Director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).
Firstly, Bonnie updates us on the situation in the South China Sea, among others what the US’ strategy is regarding the region, and the China's possible next steps. Bonnie then moves on to discuss the changes US-China-Taiwan dynamics, and the PRC’s pressure and tougher line on Taiwan. Finally, Bonnie gives her views on the latest developments on the Korean peninsula.2018-06-0451 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Sadanand Dhume - The Indian Political EconomyFor a fascinating discussion on the Indian political economy, Paul welcomed Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Sadanand focuses on South Asia’s political economy, foreign policy, business, and society. He is also a South Asia columnist for the WSJ.
Sadanand discusses the politics of economic reform in India, laying out five reasons why he thinks we should not expect a lot of progress on the economic reform program in India over the next year. His perspectives are unique and come from a deep understanding of the structural drivers of Indian politics. Without a doubt, this is th...2018-05-2256 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Deborah Elms - Current Trade Issues: The View from AsiaThe Expert Series welcomed Deborah Elms who is the Founder and Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre. She is also a Senior Fellow in the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry’s Trade Academy. Deborah, yet again, takes the complicated and somewhat dry subject matter that is trade agreements and boils it down to the relevant. This was a brilliant discussion in terms of the breadth of the issues, and the way the Deborah outlines the key points in terms of the benefits to regional participants. Where it comes to the big picture on the future of Asia trade;
Th...2018-05-0158 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Chris Balding - Is China deleveraging?For a discussion on the Chinese financial system, the Expert Series welcomed back Christopher Balding, Associate Professor at the HSBC Business School of the Peking University in Shenzhen. Chris writes regularly on the Chinese financial system, among other subjects, on his excellent blog, 'Balding's World'.
We have asked Chris to discuss what is going on, if anything, with the deleveraging process in China.2018-04-1247 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Paul Schulte - How & why China is a generation ahead in FinTech and AIFor a discussion on Chinese Fintech, the Expert Series hosted Paul Schulte, of Schulte Research. Before starting Schulte Research, Paul has had a long career in finance, at the buy-side working for Lehman, Nomura, and CCB, among others, and at a Tiger Cub hedge fund, and he also worked at the White House and in academia.
Paul Schulte has done a deep dive in all facets of fintech and has researched how companies are making the transition from the physical world into the digital world, and which country is leading the race; the US tech giants, or their Chinese peers...2018-04-1156 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Sheila Smith - Japan, Abe, and implications of the North Korean issuesPaul hosted regular Expert Series Guest Sheila Smith, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Sheila is an authority on Japanese politics and foreign policy.
Sheila succinctly lays out where the North Korean Issues have led Japan and Japanese decision making, and we discuss Prime Minister Abe and his performance since getting re-elected. Please find a replay of the discussion below.2018-04-0621 minUS-China SeriesVFTP Expert Series - Martin Baily – Thoughts on the Trump Economic AgendaFor this edition of the Expert Series, Paul hosted Martin Baily, a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute. Martin recently wrote a thoughtful article on the economic agenda of the White House, and what will work and what will not. Our discussion builds on his article, focusing on what the policy is, and what it will do for the US economy and ultimately for the global economy.2018-04-0459 min