Shows
Decision NerdsHoward Marks: Navigating Crises - Creed, Preparation and Emotional ControlSend us a textHoward Marks – navigating the crisis - creed, preparation and control What kind of mindset and organisational culture does it take to survive and to thrive in market turmoil? Let’s be frank, there are a vanishingly small number of people who have navigated multiples crises successfully and have something interesting and reflective to say it about it.One person who does is Howard Marks. Founder and Co-Chairman of Oaktree he is, for our (and Warren Buffet’s) money, one of the most thoughtful and experienced invest...2025-04-1644 min
Decision NerdsDealing with TrumpcertaintySend us a textThe Disruptor in Chief’s blizzard of executive orders, tariffs and foreign policy positions and his propensity to change them is making life difficult for investors and clients. Things look and feel uncertain, perhaps more so than in living memory. In this bite size episode, we discuss the science and practicalities of dealing with uncertainty. The Electric shock study refernced in the discussion. 2025-03-1317 min
Decision NerdsRoom 101: Project ColdplaySend us a textAs the wordly philosophers of Coldplay suggest, getting what you want, but not what you need, might leave you in need of fixing. Leaps in investment platform technology give investors more information, more choice and the ability to act more quickly and easily. We want that, but is it what we need? As Joe points out, many of the positive developments in tech are double-edge swords. He thinks from a behavioural perspective, now is one of the worst times ever to be an investor.𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:#𝟭 𝗟𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 – it takes me less than 10 seconds from launching my platform app on my phone to being able to dea...2025-01-2308 min
Decision NerdsRoom 101: Performance fees - heads I win...???Send us a textJoe doesn’t like performance fees - but why? Are they innately problematic or just badly and perhaps cynically implemented in the mutual fund industry? In this bitesize episode, we get into alignment of interests, bad design and investor behaviour.𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘁?Performance fees are most often discussed in the context of alignment and risk sharing. Joe raises an interesting question - can they also be used to nudge investors away from unhelpful behaviour?2025-01-1508 min
Decision NerdsRoom 101: Chartcrime?Send us a textWe all have things in our working lives that drive us insane. Anyone who regularly listens to the pod will know that there are a few subjects that consistently raise Joe’s blood pressure to unhealthy levels…In the interest of Joe's and our future guest’s wellbeing, we wanted to find a way of dealing with these issues productively. Our solution, Decision Nerds: Room 101 Room 101 is the torture chamber in George Orwell’s classic book, 1984. For those who cross its threshold, it contains, ‘the worst thing in the world...2025-01-0811 min
Decision NerdsMay Contain Lies...Send us a textIf you’ve been around the block, you will likely have seen some eye-rolling use of evidence during meetings. Evidence can be used badly for many reasons; a misunderstanding of what conclusions can be drawn from it, or perhaps it has been cherry-picked to support a particular position.In this episode, we unpick these issues with Professor Alex Edmans of London Business School. Alex recently published a book, ‘May Contain Lies’, which discusses the methodological, psychological and incentive problems surrounding evidence use.We spend a decent amount of time on a co...2024-09-1148 min
Decision NerdsPants on fireSend us a textLying – it’s something that all humans do. Most of the lies we tell are small and harmless. But deceptive behaviour in the investment industry lowers trust and increases costs and complexity.We are deceptive for many reasons and one of them is that we can get away with it. This is because, despite what we might believe, most of us are pretty terrible at spotting lying – including highly experienced financial analysts.But what would happen if we all had access to AI-powered technology on our phones that could spot d...2024-06-1840 min
Decision NerdsUnderperformance - everyone's got a plan until they're hit in the faceSend us a text𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗴𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿?1. Hire a manager after a period of strong performance.2. Watch in horror as you don’t experience that outcome, maybe the opposite.3. Spend a huge amount of time and emotional labour deciding on whether your initial thesis was wrong, something has changed at the manager, or with market dynamics.4. After sucking up a huge amount of governance time, decide to sack the manager. 5. Rinse and repeat with potentially similar outcomes.Now that might not be you, but it is a story that plays out regularly.Experiencing underperformance is one of the unavoidable realities of hiring an active manager. And it’s painful for everyo...2024-04-2338 min
Decision NerdsThe other F wordSend us a textThinking and talking about failure can be tough, especially when it’s us who’s failing. But it’s important for us as individuals and investment teams to find a way to do this in an effective manner that allows us to both learn and evolve. In this episode of Decisions Nerds… - Joe pits his inner Brian Blessed against an AI auto-editor - We examine Joe’s framework for thinking about errors around investment beliefs, processes and outcomes.- We then think about this in the context of br...2024-02-2036 min
Decision NerdsChristmas behaviourSend us a textWe downed some eggnog and decided to record an impromptu Christmas special. We have a chat about how insights from behavioural science might help the festive holidays proceed more smoothly: 😂 Why Joe's team might think (in his own words) that he’s an ‘egotistical a*&hole’.😧 A simple way to feel better about Christmas (but you might not like it).😠 The nudges that retailers use to get us to buy. 💵 Gift cards or cash as a present – to constrain or not to constrain?🤔 Do New Year’s resolutions get...2023-12-1222 min
Decision NerdsPrincipled? Does power corrupt and absolute power corrupt absolutely?Send us a textFollowing the publication of a new book, 'The Fund', Ray Dalio and Bridgewater have been getting attention for all the wrong reasons. The book alleges a toxic culture where the reality of day-to-day life doesn’t match that described in Dalio’s book, ‘Principles’. In this episode of Decision Nerds, we dive into the sludge and extract some key points that are relevant for organisations and teams. Key takeaways:#𝟭 𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂It’s tempting to look at something that appears to be working for someone else and try and replicate it. This is harder than we think – especially when it involves culture.#𝟮 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀We all need feedbac...2023-11-1316 min
Decision NerdsSeeing the futureSend us a textIn this episode we discuss how we can make better forecasts with Professor Paul Goodwin. We tackle everything from the techniques available, to human problems around understanding, bias and incentives. See the chapter headings for full details. NotesPhilip Tetlock's book is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionA paper that describes the key concepts can be found here. 2023-10-0949 min
Decision NerdsRegrette, je regrette beaucoup de chosesSend us a textDoes fear of getting things wrong stop you from making decisions? If so, you’re not alone. Regret can have a profound impact on our choices. In this short episode, we unpack the challenges, discuss some solutions and use the timely case of thematic investment funds as a case in point. We tackle: The psychological nature of regret – why it can be useful, but also harmful.How regret can impact the best and bright of us – smarts and market knowledge are no defence. How it can...2023-08-0822 min
Decision NerdsLessons from GlastonburySend us a textA bitesize episode with some thoughts from this year's Glastonbury festival.We tackle:Lana Del Rey - the need to understand who's got the power (literally in this case)Van Halen reconsidered - from divas to behavioural gurus via brown M&MsElton John - the peak-end rule and what set lists can teach us about being remembered. 2023-06-2708 min
Decision NerdsGetting culture right - the perils of PowerPointSend us a textIt is incredibly easy to be cynical when we hear businesses talk about culture. At one point or another, most of us have shuffled into a room with colleagues to experience a PowerPoint presentation on our firm's culture. They can often be (a) generic, anodyne and marketing-led, or (b) aspirational, unrealistic and not reflective of leadership and/or street-level behaviour.We often end up with some version of the caricatures above not through bad intentions, but because building, maintaining, evolving and communicating an effective culture is hard. Understanding how to do...2023-06-261h 02
Decision NerdsDiversity and Decisions: Things you don’t usually hear from a D&I advocate…Send us a textOur guest today, Tom Gosling, is a committed and thoughtful supporter of D&I. He's a practitioner turned academic who helps build bridges between researchers, policymakers and those at the coal face. He has an interesting take on some important strategic and practical D&I issues that often get no, or very little, air time. If you have any interest in D&I and how it impacts decisions, there’s something here for you. In this episode, we discuss:The business case for diver...2023-05-2049 minDecision NerdsF&^% ups – how they happen, how they’re judged and how we can sort themSend us a textF&^% ups – how they happen, how they’re judged and how we can sort themAt some point in life, all of us will make some kind of toe-curling mistake. In our work lives, we’re going to make smaller ones, or have to manage or deal with colleagues' errors on an ongoing basis.Understanding how errors happen and how they can be managed is important. But we also want to think about how others judge us, it might not be in the way we want o...2023-05-0416 min
Decision NerdsLessons from the Fund Manager Whisperer - getting people to listen and changeSend us a textAll investment decision-makers need feedback to improve. The key question is how can we give feedback in a way that allows people to meaningfully engage with it and ultimately change unproductive behaviour. In this episode, we chat with Clare Flynn Levy, CEO of Essentia Analytics. The core of Essentia's business is using tech to help investors understand their behaviour. A key element of their work is getting investors to engage in a process that, by design, will show where they need coaching. Clare shares her experiences in this area and...2023-04-1153 min