Shows
Free Forum with Terrence McNallyPETER TURCHIN-The historical forces that explain Trump & what needs to changeAs one year ends and another begins, many pause to look backward and forward. We’ll do that on a deep historical scale with today’s guest, PETER TURCHIN, author of END TIMES. In 2010, when Nature magazine asked for a ten-year forecast, he predicted that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to collapse of the political order. “Political breakdown, from the Roman Empire to the Russian revolution, follows a clear pattern: workers’ wages stagnate while elites multiply.” This echoes Plato’s assertion that democracy inevitably leads to tyranny - the rich always want to get richer a...
2025-12-2700 min
The Dissenter#1187 Peter Turchin: The Collapse of Complex Societies, Elite Overproduction, and Social Unrest******Support the channel******Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedissenterPayPal: paypal.me/thedissenterPayPal Subscription 1 Dollar: https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuyPayPal Subscription 3 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9lPayPal Subscription 5 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpzPayPal Subscription 10 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9mPayPal Subscription 20 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao ******Follow me on******Website: https://www.thedissenter.net/The Dissenter Goodreads list: https://shorturl.at/7BMoBFacebook: https://www.f...
2025-12-1150 min
The Orbis Sentry Report - Geopolitical Risk & Global TrendsThe Orbis Sentry Report, Introductory Series Episode 5This is the 5th video of our introductory series on The Orbis Sentry Report. Carl Teichrib and I talk about the large scale models we are using to understand the global changes that are happening. These are the Re-enchantment model, the 4th Turning (Neil Howe), and End Times (Peter Turchin). It is important to note that the last one is not a religiously framed model, having nothing to do with the book of Revelation, but is instead a socio-cultural analysis by the author and scientist Peter Turchin.These models form a basis for helping us to understand...
2025-12-0448 min
The Nietzsche PodcastAges of Discord by Peter Turchin #1 : Imperiopathosis & the Political Stress IndexThe first of a series of lectures examining Turchin's work in Ages of Discord, a structural-demographic analysis of American history.Topics in this episode- Imperiopathosis: the current situation, its underlying dynamics- Basics of secular cycles- Population-elites-state as fundamental factors- Political Stress Index (PSI) = Mass Mobilization Potential x Elite Mobilization Potential x State Fiscal Distress- Symptoms of political instability- Examining symptoms in a past "age of discord": The Gilded Age - The Violent Teens-Examining symptoms in our own "age of discord": The Turbulent 2020s
2025-12-021h 16
632nmCan We Predict History Like the Weather? | Peter Turchin on CliodynamicsWhy do civilizations rise, prosper, and then collapse? Here's what the math tells us.In this episode, we sit down with Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of the field of cliodynamics, which uses data and mathematical models to study the long-term cycles of history. Turchin explains his theory of elite overproduction, how societies generate too many ambitious, educated elites competing for too few positions, and why this dynamic reliably leads to polarization, inequality, and political turmoil.We explore how his structural-demographic theory maps the recurring “boom and bust” rhythms that have shaped civilizations from anci...
2025-11-041h 18
Thoughtful Money with Adam TaggartIs Violent Societal Unrest Now Inevitable? | Peter TurchinOn this channel we spend most of our time talking about the economy, markets and money.Which are all very important -- no doubt -- but they exist in service to society. If society reaches a point where it starts unraveling, then our portfolios start to matter a lot less when compared to safety & survival. Today's guest expert is Peter Turchin, Project Leader for Social Complexity and Collapse, Complexity Science Hub in Vienna.Dr Turchin has written a number of best-selling books on the currently precarious state of Western society, including End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of...
2025-10-281h 02
AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsArtificial General Intelligence: Can Machines Really Think Like Us? (Special Episode)Send us a textIn this special episode of AI and the Future of Work, host Dan Turchin explores one of the most ambitious and debated frontiers in technology: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).What is AGI? How close are we to creating machines that truly think, reason, and learn like humans? And what will that mean for the future of work, creativity, and ethics?This compilation episode revisits insights from three leading thinkers who have spent years defining, debating, and developing the next generation of intelligent systems.Featuring Guests
2025-10-2325 min
Klub JagiellońskiElity niszczą Europę! Nadchodzi REWOLUCJA? Rafał Ziemkiewicz i Małgorzata Jacyno | #DebataCo zwycięstwo Karola Nawrockiego mówi nam o kondycji polskich elit i podziałach społecznych? Czy mamy doczynienia z nowym podziałem klasowym? Idealnie wpisuje się w to książka „Czasy ostateczne. Elity, kontrelity i ścieżka dezintegracji politycznej” autorstwa Petera Turchina, wydana przez Wydawnictwo Prześwity.Jak czytamy na stronie wydawnictwa: „W 2010 roku Peter Turchin stwierdził, że Ameryka wpadła w spiralę społecznej dezintegracji, co około 2020 roku doprowadzi do załamania porządku politycznego. Czas pokazał, że jego przewidywania potwierdzają się, a ta książka tłumaczy, dlaczego tak się dzieje. Turchin od ponad ćwierćwiecza wzbogaca badania histo...
2025-08-141h 27
The Surf'n Turf ShowMegan Moroney, Door Dash, Iran, and ProtestsPeter Turchin books referenced: https://www.amazon.com/Books-Peter-Turchin/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3APeter%2BTurchin
Joe Abercrombie Age of Madness Trilogy: https://firstlaw.fandom.com/wiki/The_Age_of_Madness_Trilogy
Dan Pace:
Profile and publication history (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-pace-7924465b/ )
Amazon author page (https://www.amazon.com/Daniel-Pace/e/B0CTTN49VD/ref=aufs_dp_fta_an_dsk)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-pace-7924465b/
Adam Karaoguz:
Substack...
2025-06-211h 09
Só se estraga uma estante102. Calor, colapso imperial e leituras cruzadasNo meio de uma onda de calor atípica no final de maio, a Ana lembrou-se de recomendar ‘Evenings and Weekends’ (2024), um romance que se desenrola em dias quentes de junho em Londres. Entre má comunicação e precariedade, o livro conta uma história muito contemporânea.O Tomé regressa ao colapso civilizacional, desta vez através do livro ‘Why Empires Fall’ (2023), escrito a 4 mãos, pelo historiador Peter Heather e pelo economista John Rapley. Num exercício comparativo que pode atrair vários públicos, os autores interrogam-se sobre os ciclos de vida dos impérios e o que podemos...
2025-06-051h 03
AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and Academics338: From Extraction to Understanding: Martin Goodson, CEO of Evolution AI, on Why AGI Is The Wrong GoalSend us a textDr. Martin Goodson is the founder and CEO of Evolution AI, a company he launched in 2012 to apply deep learning to optical character recognition (OCR). The company has received one of the largest AI R&D grants ever awarded by the UK government, along with investment from First Minute Capital. A former scientific researcher at Oxford University, Martin has led AI research across several organizations and was elected Chair of the Data Science and AI Section of the Royal Statistical Society in 2019.In this conversation, we discuss:
2025-06-0235 min
Só se estraga uma estante101. Mulheres viajantes, crise global e IA 2.0A Ana sugere ‘Mulheres viajantes no país de Salazar’ (2025), um livro da investigadora Sónia Serrano. O livro reúne vários relatos e perceções de mulheres que visitaram Portugal durante o Estado Novo.Ainda no rescaldo do choque eleitoral português, o Tomé recomenda ‘End Times’ (2023), de Peter Turchin. O livro oferece um diagóstico para os tempos de instabilidade que vivemos um pouco por todo o mundo. O problema, para Turchin, é a “sobreprodução de elites” aliada ao “empobrecimento das massas”.Na segunda parte, e à semelhança do episódio 26, o Tomé pede criatividade ao ChatG...
2025-05-291h 02
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureWTF is the Left Even Doing?We're living through a historic inflection point where the left lost the presidency but still dominates virtually every Western institution. Despite their electoral defeat, they control the bureaucracy, UN, Big Tech, media, academia, and even the Catholic Church—while the right has built no alternative power structures. The burning question is what the left will actually DO with this paradoxical position, as their own leadership seems unsure following Trump's victory. Their next moves will inevitably shape our historical trajectory as history is carved into stone before our eyes.--SP...
2025-03-1757 min
The Great Simplification with Nate HagensThe 'Decline' of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval with Peter Turchin(Conversation recorded on November 22nd, 2024) The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval? In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throug...
2025-02-191h 05The Great Simplification with Nate HagensThe 'Decline' of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval with Peter Turchin(Conversation recorded on November 22nd, 2024) The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval? In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throug...
2025-02-191h 05
AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and Academics322: How AI is Revolutionizing Finance and Decision-Making: Insights from wunderkind George Sivulka, Hebbia CEOSend us a textGeorge Sivulka, hailed as a wunderkind by Peter Thiel, is the founder of Hebbia, a groundbreaking AI company revolutionizing financial research. Having worked at NASA as a teenager, he later earned a math degree from Stanford in just 2.5 years. George has secured $130M in funding for Hebbia at a $700M valuation, backed by Andreessen Horowitz, Index Ventures, Google Ventures, and Thiel himself. Hebbia’s AI platform, trusted by firms like Centerview Partners and Charlesbank, has driven a 15x revenue growth in 18 months by pioneering RAG techniques that ensure LLM outputs remain within company-sanctioned da...
2025-02-1032 min
Dwie lewe ręce[O KSIĄŻKACH] „Czasy ostateczne” Peter TurchinDołącz do społeczności ponad TYSIĄCA (!) Patronów podcastu Dwie Lewe Ręce, który prowadzą Marcin Giełzak i Jakub Dymek. Wspieraj treści, które lubisz i miej wpływ na ich kształt: 👉 https://patronite.pl/dlr
Pamiętajcie też o tym, aby subskrybować nasze treści, tak aby nie ominął Was żaden nowy odcinek! 🔔 Zasubskrybuj: @dwielewerece
Zapoznaj się też z ofertą sklepu, gdzie autorskie kreacje w stylu DLR: 🛒 https://patronite-sklep.pl/kolekcja/dwie-lewe-rece/
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Wracamy do cyklu #OKsiążkach i to wracamy z rozmachem! Dziś będziemy odpowiadać na pytanie, czy żyjemy w czasach ostatecznych, przed nami cykl dezintegracji i wielkie przesilenie, któr...
2025-01-081h 11
Curious CrusadersCliodynamics and the American EmpireCliodynamics, introduced by Peter Turchin, uses quantitative methods to study long-term historical patterns, focusing on factors like population dynamics, economic inequality, and elite overproduction to explain societal changes.
Turchin's cliodynamic analysis suggests the United States is experiencing a period of instability due to these factors, predicting social unrest.
We examine this prediction, along with the underlying theories and potential implications for America’s future.
2024-12-2023 min
The David Lin ReportU.S. Is On Brink Of Another 'Revolution'; What Happens Next | Peter TurchinPeter Tuchin, Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut and Research Associate at the University of Oxford, discusses the next "revolution" that the U.S. is about to witness.
*This video was recorded on November 19, 2024
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Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/the-david-lin-report
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2024-11-2547 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureThe Great Wave CrashesSick in Montpellier, France during the early virus days, surrounded by Yellow Vest protests and social decay, I read "The Great Wave" about inflation history at 2AM and experienced a horrifying revelation—everything suddenly connected. Like a horror movie where scattered clues form a terrifying pattern, I saw civilization's trajectory with perfect clarity. This profound realization changed my life and this channel forever, shifting my focus from alternate history to sharing the uncomfortable truths I'd discovered.SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud fin...
2024-11-0140 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureThe Anthropology of the LeftWe know nothing about what we're closest to—like toxic relationships we can't recognize. Today's society is arguably history's most ABSURD, yet we refuse to study ourselves anthropologically. Instead, we embrace untested stupidities: blank slate theory, cultural equivalence, gender sameness. This series examines modern political tribes through the same objective lens we'd use on Amazonian cultures. First up: the origins, strengths, weaknesses and character of the left. The findings will shock you.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the...
2024-09-1757 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureStop Coping. Your Life SucksOur era judges itself against utopian fantasies rather than real historical comparison—the ultimate intellectual sleight-of-hand. This episode exposes the shocking truth: your life is VASTLY harder than you realize. Examining economic, social, spiritual, and physical aspects reveals how normal young people today live objectively terrible lives despite our denial. When ancient wisdom across civilizations aligns with cutting-edge science against modern assumptions, the horror of what we've done to ourselves becomes breathtaking.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the...
2024-08-1650 min
AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and Academics292: Peter Voss, AGI Co-inventor and CEO at Aigo.ai, On Making AI Smarter Without Harming HumansSend us a textPeter Voss is the visionary founder and CEO of Aigo.ai, a pioneering company at the forefront of conversational AI and natural language processing. Over the past 15 years, Peter and his team have perfected a highly intelligent, hyper-personalized chatbot designed for enterprise customers. In 2009, Peter founded SmartAction.ai, which developed the first AI-based contact center technology. Beyond his entrepreneurial endeavors, Peter is an engineer, inventor, and AI pioneer who writes and presents on philosophical topics such as rational ethics, free will, and artificial minds. He is also deeply involved in futurism and radical...
2024-07-0836 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureWTF is Wrong with the Economy?Experts studying specific historical topics often reach conclusions OPPOSITE to public belief. Today's economy follows this pattern—"great on paper" while visibly failing outside your window. Despite glowing official numbers, real-world indicators tell a different story: household finances, quality of life measures, and cost of living reveal a crumbling reality. This episode exposes how elites manipulate statistics to maintain the façade while everyday Americans struggle beneath mounting evidence that something is fundamentally broken.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Ora...
2024-07-0638 min
Pearl Snap TacticalCivilizational Collapse: Why Societies FallFeeling a bit uneasy about everything going on right now? You're not alone. With trust in the government at rock bottom, the economy going downhill fast, and talk of world war looming, it's no wonder we’re all on edge. But here’s something to think about: what if all this chaos is part of a bigger, predictable pattern? In today’s episode, we're diving into some fascinating ideas that explain why societies rise and fall. By the end, you'll have a better understanding of what's happening and how to navigate these turbulent times...
2024-06-1133 min
Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman2165: Revolutionary Insights: How Overproduction of Elites Fuels Unrest with Peter Turchin Part 2Jason gives an overview of the current state of various real estate markets, highlighting a slight sellers' advantage with the national median price at $453,000. He underscored the diversified nature of real estate as an asset class and invited attendees to join the upcoming free monthly Zoom meeting with Tom Wheelwright. Additionally, he thanked those who participated in the previous night's empowered investor pro meeting. Then Jason finishes up his talk with Peter Turchin. When too many people compete for limited positions, it leads to widespread crisis, a trend observed in over 200 historical instances. This "illiterate production" causes...
2024-06-0531 min
Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman2164: Predicting Social Turmoil- Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and America's Future Part 1Jason discusses history and it's complexities with complexity scientist guest Peter Turchin. Jason also updates listeners on recent events, including a collective mastermind in Orlando and an upcoming talk at the Rebel Capitalist event. He promotes the Empowered Investor Pro membership, highlighting its benefits and exclusive monthly Zoom meetings, featuring guest Tom Wheelwright discussing tax-free wealth. Hartman shares a property investment opportunity in Huntsville, Alabama, emphasizing its potential for high returns through income, depreciation, equity growth, and leverage. He encourages listeners to use the free Property Tracker software https://www.propertytracker.com for investment analysis. Join the monthly Zoom m...
2024-06-0326 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureA Message to Young MenWestern young men are treated as second-class citizens while society maintains a bizarre normality bias—pretending everything is fine during history's most rapidly changing period. After 10 years on YouTube watching my demographic get systematically pushed around, I can't stay silent. This personal message offers understanding and practical advice to help young men navigate a society that's openly hostile to them.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, finan...
2024-05-0237 min
Talks from the Hoover InstitutionCliodynamics Of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites And The Path Of Political Disintegration | Hoover InstitutionTuesday, April 16, 2024
Hoover Institution | Stanford University
The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT.
The book is available for purchase here.
ABOUT THE TALK
Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine s...
2024-04-1914 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureExplaining Russian CivilizationRussia has been one of the most powerful countries in world history. The world's view is too focused on Russia today, but there are several assumptions you need to change about Russian civilization to understand the Russian mind and Russian civilization. Watch with maps at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0j2nT-zYHA--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download t...
2024-04-1939 min
No es el fin del mundo¿Va Estados Unidos hacia una guerra civil?🇺🇸 Hablar de una guerra civil en Estados Unidos parece cosa de los libros de historia o de la ciencia ficción.Sin embargo, cada vez se habla más de esta posibilidad: más del 40% de los estadounidenses cree que es posible que estalle una guerra civil en el país en los próximos diez años.¿Pero es realmente posible? ¿Qué podría llevar al país a romperse? ¿Cómo sería esta guerra y qué implicaciones tendría para el país y el mundo? 🤔Analizamos tendencias políticas, encuestas, estudios académi...
2024-04-181h 26
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureThe Coming Incel RevolutionThis is a controversial topic about the issues in modern dating that will cause a revolution in the next few years. Most people won't want to discuss the elephant in the room to deal with the massive shaming that comes along with it.SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102Shopify: ...
2024-04-1745 min
Curiosités ClassiquesL’Initiative du siècle et la cliodynamique de Peter TurchinAges of Discord et End Times de TurchinDans cet épisode , nous explorons "L'Initiative du Siècle", une organisation canadienne à but non lucratif visant à augmenter la population du Canada à 100 millions d'ici 2100. Cette initiative cherche à "stimuler la croissance économique et améliorer le niveau de vie en encourageant l'immigration, soutenant la natalité, investissant dans l'éducation, et favorisant le développement économique" (sic). Nous discutons également de la cliodynamique, une approche transdisciplinaire qui utilise les mathématiques pour comprendre les dynamiques historiques des sociétés humaines, introduite par Peter Turchin. Le podcast aborde le modèle de Turchin sur...
2024-03-2830 min
American Conservative UniversityWhy the 2024 Election will start a Civil WarWhy the 2024 Election will start a Civil War
https://youtu.be/yaGc4jMGcVU?si=x3VciIVp_PIbAIXF
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Check out Tacen with https://www.tacen.exchange or / discord Content related to Project TXA and Tacen Exchange is being provided to you for informational purposes only. Nothing discussed in this video is intended to be investment advice. This content, and any information contained therein, does not constitute a recommendation by Project TXA or Tacen Exchange to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument refer...
2024-03-2636 min
"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureWill Israel Cause a World War?The brutality of Hamas's recent attack on Israel and the subsequent fighting has the world holding its breath. Though Israel itself is tiny—just the size of New Jersey—it stands at a geopolitical crossroads reminiscent of Bosnia before WWI. This episode examines whether this localized conflict could trigger the chain reaction of alliances that plunges our interconnected world into another global war.--SPONSORSNetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE prove...
2024-03-2242 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureThe Top 20 Bloodiest Atrocities in HistoryWith several brutal wars raging and more potentially imminent, formerly "decent" people are turning into bloodthirsty sharks. This episode examines history's most devastating conflicts using Matthew White's meticulously researched "Atrocities"—data respected across the political spectrum. Blood transcends political bias, revealing how Eurocentric our historical education is. When countries are bucking toward war, only perspective keeps us from getting thrown.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the C...
2024-03-2242 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureHow Christianity Changed HistoryLike fish unable to see the water they swim in, we're blind to Christianity's total transformation of Western society. Even our most "original" philosophies only make sense within Christian frameworks. This is the perfect moment to examine this influence—as Britain, Australia, and Netherlands become minority-Christian for the first time in 2,000 years. Christianity asks the least of societies yet paradoxically transforms them more profoundly than any other religion.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bring...
2024-03-2256 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureThe Coming Fall of RussiaWhen analyzing societies for revolutionary potential—weak governance, economic problems, unpopular wars, military loyalty issues—Russia scores HIGHER than any major nation except China. This long-planned analysis examines why Russia shows all classic signs of pre-revolutionary collapse. After a year of researching since Ukraine's invasion began, the evidence points overwhelmingly toward Russian state failure within the next five years.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platfor...
2024-03-2234 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureWhy We're Facing another 30 Years WarPoliticians can only reference four historical moments—Civil War, Revolution, WWII, and post-1960s events. This crippling historical myopia prevents us from seeing our true position in history's cycles (100-year, 300-year, and 2000-year patterns). Our society bears SHOCKING similarities to the 1630s—politically, religiously, and economically. Even modern warfare resembles the Thirty Years' War, not WWII. The Middle East is experiencing its own "Islamic Thirty Years' War" right now.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial syste...
2024-03-2241 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureWhy America will Have its French Revolution.Having created six different social clubs across spectrum—from "talented young people" to LA influencers—I've witnessed something terrifying: our society's most successful members exist in completely different realities from everyone else. At 22, I see obvious truths (Chinese threat, dating collapse, widespread poverty) that elites actively deny or remain shockingly unaware of. This profound disconnect mirrors pre-revolutionary France's elite blindness—a giant societal vacuum no one wants to acknowledge.--SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system...
2024-03-2242 min"WhatifAlthist" | World History, Philosophy, CultureHow to Survive the Coming CrisisEven if you're coping, you feel it—the world is sliding toward catastrophe. As a historian who's analyzed secular crises (French Revolution, Wars of Religion, Black Death), I see the same demographic patterns repeating. With developed nations losing HALF their populations and fragile global supply chains collapsing, this isn't abstract history anymore—it's our future. Drawing on personal wilderness experience and apocalypse-prepper wisdom, I'll show practical ways to navigate what's coming.SPONSORS:NetSuite: More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bring...
2024-03-2242 min
The Fair Society seriesEnd Times: Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration (with Peter Turchin)What factors drive political turmoil and societal breakdown? How do elites sustain their dominance, and why do ruling classes occasionally lose their hold on power? Peter Turchin, an expert in researching the origins of political instability, uncovers a recurring trend in his book End Times. When the scales of power heavily favour the ruling elite, it leads to a surge in income inequality, enriching the wealthy and impoverishing the less privileged. As more individuals aspire to join the elite, dissatisfaction with the established order intensifies, often resulting in calamity.The Policy Institute and the Fairness Foundation...
2024-01-1057 min
Pitchfork Economics with Nick HanauerThe path of political disintegration (with Peter Turchin)When Nick warned back in 2013 that the pitchforks were coming, he meant that if we continued immiserating the majority of citizens by enriching a wealthy few at the expense of everyone else, an uprising was inevitable. Unfortunately, this warning is still just as relevant ten years later. Peter Turchin joins the podcast to discuss his new book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, which looks to history (as well as the current turmoil in the United States) to better understand exactly what causes political communities to fall apart.Peter Turchin...
2023-10-3145 min
The Joe Walker PodcastPeter Turchin — Why Societies Fall Apart (And Why the US May Be Next)Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of cliodynamics — a new, cross-disciplinary field that applies mathematics and big data to test historical theories. Full transcript available at: jnwpod.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
2023-08-301h 41
Human Energy PodcastScience of the Noosphere – Expanding Scale of Human Society – Peter Turchin & Daron AcemogluCentral to our mission at Science of the Noosphere is an exploration of the modern scientific perspective on how the noosphere evolved and expanded over time, from its origins in small paleolithic human groups to our emerging global civilization. That is the central subject of this conversation between David Sloan Wilson and two experts from different fields, who approach these questions in interestingly complementary ways.One is Peter Turchin, author of War and Peace and War, who founded the field of Cliodynamics, which uses mathematical modeling of long-term historical processes to look at human history from a...
2023-07-241h 32
Worker and ParasiteEnd Times by Peter TurchinIn this episode, Jerry and Stably discuss End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin. The conversation begins with a candid exchange, setting a casual tone as Jerry mentions feeling frustrated with unmet aspirations. This lighthearted introduction transitions into an in-depth exploration of Turchin’s ambitious attempt to forecast societal collapse and renewal through the lens of "cliodynamics," a multidisciplinary approach combining history, sociology, and mathematical modeling.The hosts delve into Turchin’s central thesis, which posits that societies follow predictable cycles of growth and decline driven by recurring structural factors such as e...
2023-07-211h 17
Honestly with Bari WeissAre We Living Through 'End Times'?Peter Turchin is not like most historians. For starters, he has an unusual background as an evolutionary biologist studying lemmings and mice. He says that analyzing the complexities of the natural world has allowed him to understand the most complex system of all: human society. He has pioneered a field of history that he calls cliodynamics that applies hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of historical data points to a mathematical model in order to understand the present and to predict future trends.Using these tools, Peter and his team published an article in the journal N...
2023-07-191h 14
DoughboysAre We Living Through 'End Times'?Peter Turchin is not like most historians. For starters, he has an unusual background as an evolutionary biologist studying lemmings and mice. He says that analyzing the complexities of the natural world has allowed him to understand the most complex system of all: human society. He has pioneered a field of history that he calls cliodynamics that applies hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of historical data points to a mathematical model in order to understand the present and to predict future trends. Using these tools, Peter and his team published an article in the journal Nature in 2010 making a bold p...
2023-07-191h 15
Uncertain ThingsA Huge Outpouring of Human Misery (w/ Peter Turchin)Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin returns! Peter first came on the pod a few months ago to discuss the famous prediction he made in 2010 that we were headed for crisis, circa 2020. Last time, we covered the controversy he’s stirred up within the historical discipline, the methodologies behind cliodynamics/his data-based predictions, and the drivers of social unrest (in particular, elite overproduction). This conversation — recorded on the heels of the publication of his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration — we pick up where we left off. Peter explains it all: how do we prevent all-out civil w...
2023-07-081h 10
The Jim Rutt ShowEP 190 Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End TimesJim talks with Peter Turchin about the field he founded, cliodynamics, which applies the scientific method to history. They discuss the meaning & origins of cliodynamics, distinguishing cliodynamics from previous approaches, regularizing historical data, the interface between models & data, average height as a proxy for biological well-being, the Seshat data collection project, observed patterns in collapsing societies, the overproduction of elites, relative vs absolute wage, the wealth pump, relative well-being, a top-heavy social pyramid, defining elites, failed aspirant elites as the raw material for radical movements, why lawyers are the most dangerous profession, the Musk-Zuckerman duel as a sign of increased...
2023-07-071h 15
The Realignment384 | Peter Turchin: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path to Political DisintegrationSubscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/Peter's 2010 Nature Article: https://www.nature.com/articles/463608aREALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiPeter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, joins The Realignment. Peter and Marshall discuss his 2010 prediction that the U.S. would...
2023-07-0447 min
Andrew Yang PodcastCan Math Predict the End Times?Peter Turchin is a social scientist at the University of Connecticut who studies the math of social integration and disintegration. Peter created the field of Cliodynamics and delves into how he predicts the trajectory of social cohesion based on historical data from 200 societies, why elite overproduction is bad, and how we can avoid disaster by learning from the past.Watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/RnSnR2koijMEnd Times - https://amzn.to/3NSLqJTFollow Peter Turchin: https://peterturchin.com | https://twitter.com/Peter_TurchinFollow Andrew Yang: https...
2023-07-0350 min
The Tyee: Audio EditionAre These the End Times Who Will Save UsNoted scientist, historian and Big Data expert Peter Turchin argues that if we approach history as a science, we can predict at least the general trend of the near future. Crawford Kilian reviews End Times, Turchin's latest book. Crawford is a Tyee contributing editor. Published Thursday, June 29, 2023.
https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2023/06/29/These-End-Times-Who-Save-Us/
2023-06-2900 min
Novara MediaDownstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter TurchinHistory is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia, but none of them have truly ‘done the math’ like this week’s guest. Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical […]
2023-06-191h 28Downstream – Novara Media PodcastsDownstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter TurchinHistory is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia, but none of them have truly ‘done the math’ like this week’s guest. Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical […]
2023-06-191h 28
El Club del MisterioMisterios de la Profecias 2: Peter Turchin, Edgar Cayce, Benjamín Solari Parravicini, Padre Pio, Fernando Javier, Jeane Dixon"Bienvenidos a la segunda parte de 'Misterios de las Profecías', el apasionante podcast que explora los fascinantes caminos de la predicción y el misterio. En cada episodio, nos sumergiremos en el enigma de las profecías y exploraremos las vidas y enseñanzas de reconocidos profetas a lo largo de la historia.
Acompáñanos en este viaje inquietante y revelador mientras desentrañamos los misterios ocultos de las profecías. Cada semana, investigaremos a destacados videntes y visionarios como Peter Turchin, Edgar Cayce, Benjamín Solari Parravicini, Padre Pio, Fernando Javier y Jeane Dixon. Descubriremos cómo esta...
2023-06-1859 min
Democracy ParadoxPeter Turchin Wants to Avoid Political DisintegrationIf you have grown up in a household which had decent quality of life and now you are struggling, you cannot even match the degree of wellbeing that your parents achieved, this is very obvious and makes people feel completely dissatisfied with the system that we have now.Peter TurchinAccess Bonus Episodes on PatreonMake a one-time Donation to Democracy Paradox.A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.Peter is a complexity scientist who has established a new field of social science research called cliodynamics. He...
2023-06-1347 min
Absorb This Game-Changing Full Audiobook And Feel The Difference.End Times by Peter TurchinPlease visithttps://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/2/audible/41331to listen full audiobooks.
Title: End Times
Author: Peter Turchin
Narrator: Robin McAlpine
Format: mp3
Length: 10 hrs and 4 mins
Release date: 06-13-23
Ratings: 4.5 out of 5 stars, 6 ratings
Genres: Economics
Publisher's Summary:
What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we...
2023-06-1310h 04
Top Full Audiobooks in Non-Fiction, Current Affairs, Law, & PoliticsThe End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter TurchinPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/624160 to listen full audiobooks. Title: The End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration Author: Peter Turchin Narrator: Robin Mcalpine Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 10 hours 4 minutes Release date: June 13, 2023 Genres: Current Affairs, Law, & Politics Publisher's Summary: Brought to you by Penguin. A brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter...
2023-06-1305 min
Get Top Full Audiobooks in Non-Fiction, Current Affairs, Law, & PoliticsEnd Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter TurchinPlease visit https://thebookvoice.com/podcasts/1/audiobook/630960 to listen full audiobooks. Title: End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration Author: Peter Turchin Narrator: Robin Mcalpine Format: Unabridged Audiobook Length: 10 hours 4 minutes Release date: June 13, 2023 Ratings: Ratings of Book: 4 of Total 2 Ratings of Narrator: 3 of Total 2 Genres: Current Affairs, Law, & Politics Publisher's Summary: “Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics From the pioneering co-founder of cliodyn...
2023-06-1310 min
The Book ClubPeter Turchin: End TimesIn this week's Book Club podcast I talk to Peter Turchin about his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. He proposes a scientific theory of history, mapping the underlying forces that have led to the collapse of states from the ancient world to the present day, and warns of very turbulent times ahead indeed. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcastsContact us: p...
2023-06-0748 min
Best of the SpectatorThe Book Club: Peter TurchinIn this week's Book Club podcast I talk to Peter Turchin about his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. He proposes a scientific theory of history, mapping the underlying forces that have led to the collapse of states from the ancient world to the present day, and warns of very turbulent times ahead indeed.
2023-06-0748 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsBob Rogers, AI expert, physicist, author, and CEO of Oii.ai, discusses what it was like to co-author a book with ChatGPTSend us a textBob Rogers, AI pioneer, entrpreneur, and author, started Oii in 2019 to automate supply chain design. The company uses advanced modeling and AI to optimize supply chain planning and automate the configuration of complex networks. Bob started his career as a Harvard physicist using neural networks to measure activity near black holes in deep space. During his 35 year career Bob has been a trailblazer in using AI to solve complex problems. He’s also an Expert in Residence for AI at UCSF Smarter Health and was Chief Data Scientist in the Data Cen...
2023-03-2739 min
The Nietzsche Podcast66: Peter Turchin - Why Empires Rise & FallPeter Turchin has continued the work of Ibn Khaldun, by elaborating upon Khaldun's hypotheses and testing them against the wealth of historical data that we now possess. By means of a structural demographic analysis of historical empires, Turchin has worked for years to generate mathematical models in order to explain the trends that seem to recur in every complex society. Now, with the data of 10,000 years of human activity on the group level, it may be possible to finally move beyond the preliminary, pseudo-scientific steps of the discipline of history, and proceed into a truly mathematized phase. This is the...
2023-03-071h 48AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsSpecial episode: Dave Kellogg, serial CEO, investor, and SaaS pioneer, shares his (provocative) tech predictions for 2023Send us a textThis is one of my favorite episodes of the year. It’s our third annual long, strange trip into the mind of a Silicon Valley legend. Dave Kellogg is one of the best marketers, CEOs, tech provocateurs, and board whisperers around. He was an executive at iconic companies like SAP, MarkLogic, and Salesforce turned investor and board director who is now an executive in residence at Balderton Capital. In this episode, we discuss, well, just about everything that matters for the tech economy… startup growth metrics, generative AI, how to ge...
2023-01-2351 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsAI wins and losses in 2022... and predictions for 2023 with two AI legends: tech futurists Peter Scott and David WoodSend us a textToday's episode first appeared on Peter Scott's (excellent!) AI and You podcast.Peter Scott and David Wood are two of the most recognized AI futurists. Both are respected authors, speakers, and visionaries. Peter is a popular TEDx speaker and long-time NASA engineer. David was recently named one of the "top 100 most influential people in technology".Today's discussion is a must-listen in which we discuss the future of technology, the future of work, and the future of humanity. In this one, Peter hosted and the three of us had a...
2023-01-0243 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsMona Akmal, outspoken CEO of Falkon, discusses how to use data to help sales reps "make the best deal the typical deal"Send us a textMona Akmal, CEO of sales intelligence platform Falkon, is the outspoken co-founder behind an emerging leader in a hot space. Mona migrated to the United States at age 20 with a CS degree and little else. She had an impressive 12-year run as a product leader at Microsoft where she helped scale OneDrive and Office. She subsequently led product and technology organizations at places like Code.org and Amperity. Two decades later, Mona’s the CEO of Falkon AI, an intelligence platform for go to market teams. Falkon recently raised $16M from a group of...
2022-10-2333 min
Uncertain ThingsThe Coming Collapse (w/ Peter Turchin)Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin is best known for a dire prediction he made in 2010: we were headed for serious unrest, circa 2020. Peter came to this (as-so-happened) accurate prediction by treating the soft science of history like a hard one — what he calls cliodynamics. He and his team quantified indicators of social unrest in previous historical periods, generating a database of information, and then created a structural-dynamic model that could determine the biggest drivers of social violence and societal collapse. Peter, who’s currently serving as the Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, talks to us about his appro...
2022-10-171h 03AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsAhmed Elsamadisi, Narrator CEO, is a roboticist by training and one of the first engineers at WeWork. Now he's changing how the world tells stories with data.Send us a textAhmed Elsamadisi built the data infrastructure at WeWork before realizing every company could benefit from his team’s innovation. Traditional star schemas aren’t the best way to manage data. Ahmed instead pioneered a new approach using a single-table column model better suited for real questions people ask. He launched Narrator in 2017 to make it easier to turn data questions into answers and has since raised $6.2M from Initialized Capital, Flybridge Capital Partners, and Y Combinator. Ahmed received his BS in Robotics from Cornell. Hear from a pioneer (and tech provocateur) how new data...
2022-10-0252 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsPeter Scott, popular author, TedX speaker, and futurist, discusses how to ensure AI is used for good… despite the potential for it doing harmSend us a textPeter Scott, author, TedX speaker, and futurist, worked at NASA’s JPL laboratory after receiving his Masters Degree in Computer Science from Cambridge. Raising kids made him realize the potential impact of AI to do both good and harm. He left NASA and switched careers to feel confident he was doing all he could to secure their future. He recently published Artificial Intelligence and You after publishing Crisis of Control five years back. Listen and learn: When will we achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI)… and is that the right goal for th...
2022-09-1832 min
MindMattersThe War Paradox: How Warfare Breeds Cooperation, and Cooperation Reduces WarfareToday on MindMatters we discuss complexity scientist Peter Turchin's 2015 book, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Turchin walks us through 10 millennia of human cultural evolution: from tribes and chiefdoms to the first states and empires, to our modern "ultrasocial" states. Contrary to pet theories and many ingenious hypotheses over the generations, the development of large, complex societies was not the result of agriculture or even ideas--the primer driver has been warfare: the technologies humans have developed to defend and conquer, the cooperation needed for both, and the cultural practices and values that developed...
2022-06-151h 38
Sott Radio NetworkMindMatters: The War Paradox: How Warfare Breeds Cooperation, and Cooperation Reduces WarfareToday on MindMatters we discuss complexity scientist Peter Turchin's 2015 book, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Turchin walks us through 10 millennia of human cultural evolution: from tribes and chiefdoms to the first states and empires, to our modern "ultrasocial" states. Contrary to pet theories and many ingenious hypotheses over the generations, the development of large, complex societies was not the result of agriculture or even...
2022-06-151h 38AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsElliot Shmukler, CEO of Anomalo, discusses why data quality monitoring is the future of personalizationSend us a textElliot Shmukler, CEO and founder of Anomalo, needed a better way to monitor data quality at scale. He previously led growth teams at Wealthfront, Instacart, and LinkedIn and experienced firsthand the impact of incomplete or inaccurate data. Anomalo has now raised nearly $40M from amazing investors including Norwest, Two Sigma, and Foundation to make data problems a thing of the past.Listen and learn...What Elliot means when citing Jeff Weiner from Linkedin: "If you're launching a rocket even a one degree course change can mean you won't land on...
2022-01-0933 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsPeter Fishman, co-founder and CEO of Mozart Data, discusses data pipelines and why they're defining the future of data analyticsSend us a textPeter Fishman ("Fish"), co-founder and CEO of Mozart Data, had a vision for making it easy for any business to unlock the value of their data via a modern data stack. He and his co-founder believe rote data engineering work shouldn't require teams of in-house data engineers. Fish turned his PhD in Economics and passion for statistics into a successful, venture-backed YC company that is defining the future of data analytics.Listen and learn...Why Fish believes "not every business gets value out of their data... but every business can."...
2021-12-2737 min
Radio Free BeszelHitler's Students: Elite Overproduction Then and NowWhen there are too many elites, chaos follows. In essence, this is historian Peter Turchin's theory of elite overproduction. Tracing the history of civilizations around the world, he finds that an oversupply of elites is one of the strongest predictors of social unrest. As Götz Aly explains in his book, Why the Germans? Why the Jews?, this is a key part of the what happened in Germany between the wars. In the 1920s, the liberal Weimar government opened up access to universities. Many families sent their sons to study for the first time. By 1931, a third o...
2021-09-0312 min
According to AndrewReview: Historical DynamicsReview of Peter Turchin's Historical Dynamics. What it is about and why you should read it. Plus lessons learned from the book.
#Turchin #podcast #nation #HistoricalDynamics #AccordingToAndrew #Review
2021-09-0122 minAccording to AndrewReview: Ages of DiscordReview of Peter Turchin's Agers of Discord. What it is about and why you should read it. Plus lessons learned from the book.
#Turchin #podcast #elite #Structural-demographic #AccordingToAndrew #Review #AgesofDiscord
2021-08-2328 minMindMattersCliodynamics and the Secular Cycles of HistoryDoes history really repeat? If so, how, and why? We discussed the "fourth turning" on a previous episode of MindMatters. According to Strauss and Howe, the United States has entered a time of crisis which could see societal collapse, revolution, or war. However, their theory has its problems. While suggestive on the descriptive level, it has not been scientifically supported. Enter Peter Turchin.Today we continue our discussion of historical cycles by looking at cliodynamics, a field of study pioneered by Turchin. Turchin's work gives scientific support to the idea that cycles are an essential feature of c...
2021-08-071h 20According to AndrewReview: Secular CyclesIt is time to review Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov. This was a fantastic book and I cover the book along with lessons I pulled from it.
Discussion with Keen and Daniel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3PJe9Dusgw
#SecularCycles #Turchin #Nefedov #review #book #podcast
2021-08-0429 minAI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and AcademicsDr. Mark van Rijmenam, technologist, entrepreneur, and author, discusses AI ethics, future societies, blockchains, and digital laborSend us a textA first on the show this week... we meet a guest whose digital twin has its own YouTube channel. Dr. Mark van Rijmenam is a futurist, best-selling author, and entrepreneur. He is a popular keynote speaker about issues related to how we co-exist with technology in an increasingly digital world.Listen and learn....Why it is we're living in "exponential times"How future societies will be organized by "digitalism" instead of "liberalism" based on who can access and control dataWhy blockchains as a technology are currently about at the maturity...
2021-05-3133 min
The Worthy House (Charles Haywood)Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth (Peter Turchin)The prolific Peter Turchin offers another attempt to quantify and mathematize history. It's not bad, and it's fairly interesting, but it's not nearly as successful as his more famous Ages of Discord. (The written version of this review can be found here.)
2021-04-2026 min
Escape From Plan AEp. 251: War and Peace and WarIn his book War and Peace and War, Peter Turchin discusses the common historical elements present in both the rise and fall of empires. Jess and Chris discuss these elements in modern American society—from a lack of collective will to overproduction of elites—and how Asian Americans will experience life in a declining empire that is attempting to revive itself by focusing on an Asian enemy.
Join us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/planamag
TWITTER:
Jess (@cogitatotomato)
Chris (@JesuInToast)
REFERENCED RESOURCES:
The Atlantic's interview with Peter Turchin: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/
Fareed Zakaria clip on U.S. m...
2021-04-131h 25
We Are Not SavedThe 9 Books I Finished in March Secular Cycles by: Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov Where Is My Flying Car? A Memoir of Future Past by: J. Storrs Hall A Short Stay in Hell by: Steven L. Peck Cibola Burns by: James S. A. Corey Nemesis Games by: James S. A. Corey Classical Philosophy: A history of philosophy without any gaps, Volume 1 by: Peter Adamson Playing at the World: A History of Simulating Wars, People and Fantastic Adventures, from Chess to Role-Playing Games by: Jon Peterson Earth Abides by: George R. Stewart The Goal: A Business Graphic Novel by: Eliyah Goldratt
2021-04-0734 min
Galaxy!A Delicate Moment in History (Foundation, Book 1)When you think Isaac Asimov, what book comes to mind most readily? For many, that would be Foundation. On this episode we begin our analysis of what has been considered one of THE quintessential science fiction novels, and has been an inspiration to countless readers and sci-fi creators. We talk about about Book 1, "The Psychohistorians," and we discuss the concept of Galactic Empire, the extent to which Psychohistory is realistic (or hopelessly doomed to fail), and how we respond to figures of authority and expertise when our interests are on the line.----more----Also, we briefly discuss...
2021-01-061h 00
The Human Risk PodcastGerald Ashley & Rory Sutherland on ProsilienceWhat is Prosilience, and how can organisations ensure their people provide it? That’s where the discussion between my guests on this episode, Gerald Ashley and Rory Sutherland, begins. Where it goes from there, is a joyous adventure in which two great thinkers explore a range of Human Risk related topics. * Listener Warning: the episode contains adult language * This episode is the 100th in the Human Risk podcast series and is a continuation of a discussion which began in the 99th episode. I recommend listening to that first before exploring this one.Yo...
2020-12-2841 min
Bulletproof Dental PracticeIt's Never Too Late To Change Directions: Life and Dentistry with Dr. Andrew TurchinText 'bulletproof' to 33777 to stay in the know about all things Bulletproof, and buy the book HERE! Bulletproof Dental Practice Podcast Episode 173 Hosts: Dr. Craig Spodak & Dr. Peter Boulden Guest: Dr. Andrew Turchin Key Takeaways Introduction Dr. Andrew Turchin's Story Maverick Investor Economic Fulfillment vs. True Fulfillment Collaboration Dr. Turchin's Practice Dentistry's Slow Season Market Savvy Track Record Cosmetic Dentistry Coaching Accelerated Learning Never Say 'Need' To A Patient Patient's Motivation Payment Plan Options References Rich Dad, Poor Dad Cosmetics Confidence Coaching Tweetables
2020-09-241h 02Bulletproof Dental PracticeIt's Never Too Late To Change Directions: Life and Dentistry with Dr. Andrew TurchinText 'bulletproof' to 33777 to stay in the know about all things Bulletproof, and buy the book HERE! Bulletproof Dental Practice Podcast Episode 173 Hosts: Dr. Craig Spodak & Dr. Peter Boulden Guest: Dr. Andrew Turchin Key Takeaways Introduction Dr. Andrew Turchin's Story Maverick Investor Economic Fulfillment vs. True Fulfillment Collaboration Dr. Turchin's Practice Dentistry's Slow Season Market Savvy Track Record Cosmetic Dentistry Coaching Accelerated Learning Never Say 'Need' To A Patient Patient's Motivation Payment Plan Options References Rich Dad, Poor Dad Cosmetics Confidence Coaching Tweetables
2020-09-241h 02
This View of LifeA Tale of Two Evolutionary Processes, with Rita ColwellRita Colwell pioneered the study of microbial ecology and genetics and served as Director of the National Science Foundation during 1998-2004. Her new book A Lab of Her Own: One Woman's Personal Journey Through Sexism in Science tells two evolutionary stories. The first is the story of her career studying microbial genetic evolution, including diseases such as cholera and anthrax. The second is the story of cultural evolution and the lack thereof, such as entrenched sexism in science and the reluctance of the medical establishment to embrace new ideas. My conversation with Rita uniquely weaves these two themes of her bo...
2020-08-251h 15
Around The EmpireEp 171 *UNLOCKED* Quarantine? Edition #4 Joanne Leon and Dan Wright do another quarantine episode while on newly reduced lockdown in New Jersey in a conversation about the pandemic, protests, the movement to defund police, the hypocrisy of politicians, and Governor Murphy the Friendly Cartoonish Dictator. We also talk about majoritarianism, Turchin’s theory on stability, inequality and the overproduction of elites, and more. This episode is for patrons only and may be unlocked for the public at a later date. FOLLOW Dan on Twitter @DanSWright Around the Empire is listener supported, independent media. Pitch in at Patreon: patreon.com...
2020-06-301h 41
The DisconnectThe Mayhem of 2020 Was Predicted a Decade AgoThis Researcher Predicted 2020 Would Be Mayhem. Here’s What He Says May Come Next
Not everyone took Peter Turchin seriously a decade ago when he said widespread civil unrest would sweep through the U.S. in 2020.
“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” says Turchin, a 63-year-old researcher who teaches cultural evolution at the University of Connecticut.
In 2010, after analyzing historical cycles of instability, Turchin made a prediction that was published at the time in the journal Nature: America will suffer a period of major social upheaval beginning around 2020.
Some w...
2020-06-2927 min
Mundo SoulUma Conversa Sobre Natureza Humana, Modelos e COVID19Nesse primeiro episódio do podcast Mundo Soul, converso com o Professor Universitário de Ciência Biológicas "Cientista Investidor". Por razões de foro íntimo, que são explicadas no começo do programa, o professor preferiu identificar-se por um pseudônimo. Muitos temas são tratados nesse podcast, iniciando-se por uma análise sobre a evolução humana, e como as mídias sociais podem de alguma maneira estarem "desumanizando" os relacionamentos humanos e fomentando a criação de bolhas de informação.Discute-se também, com maior profundidade, alguns aspectos básicos sobre a biologia de um vírus, limites...
2020-05-141h 59
The Worthy House (Charles Haywood)Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Peter Turchin)I am skeptical of the art of predicting the future based on the past, but Peter Turchin offers a compelling theory in this 2016 book—including predicting that 2020 will be a very bad year. (The written version of this review, in web, PDF, and ebook formats, can be found here.)
2020-01-1026 min
Astral Codex Ten PodcastBook Review: Ages of DiscordLink: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-discord/ I. I recently reviewed Secular Cycles, which presents a demographic-structural theory of the growth and decline of pre-industrial civilizations. When land is plentiful, population grows and the economy prospers. When land reaches its carrying capacity and income declines to subsistence, the area is at risk of famines, diseases, and wars – which kill enough people that land becomes plentiful again. During good times, elites prosper and act in unity; during bad times, elites turn on each other in an age of backstabbing and civil strife. It seemed pretty reasonable, and a...
2019-09-0347 minAstral Codex Ten PodcastBook Review: Secular CyclesThere is a tide in the affairs of men. It cycles with a period of about three hundred years. During its flood, farms and businesses prosper, and great empires enjoy golden ages. During its ebb, war and famine stalk the land, and states collapse into barbarism. Chinese population over time At least this is the thesis of Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, authors of Secular Cycles. They start off Malthusian: due to natural reproduction, population will keep increasing until it reaches the limits of what the land can support. At that point, eve...
2019-08-1536 min
Burke Allen's Big Time Talker Podcast — by SpeakerMatchPhysician, Researcher, Army vet Dr. Rob Cohen on History and Political ViolenceIn the wake of the mail bombing scare and the horrific shootings at the synagogue in Pittsburgh, much discussion is taking place about how to best tamp down the escalating rhetoric on both sides that has led to political violence. Former John McCain campaign staffer, Army vet, and physician/researcher Dr. Rob Cohen recently spent time interviewing historian and author Dr. Peter Turchin about this very thing for the launch of Cohen’s new “Democrises” podcast which debuts November 1st on Apple iTunes and other platforms. Turchin and Cohen both feel that history can repeat itself, and the results could potentiall...
2018-11-0130 min
DemocrisesEpisode 2: Interview with Dr. Peter Turchin, University of Connecticut, Author of War and Peace and WarDr. Turchin is one of the world’s foremost researchers on the question of why empires rise and fall. We featured some of his research in episode 1. He has authored 5 books and hundreds of scientific articles on the subject, including a prediction in 2010 that the United States was on a dangerous path to widespread political violence by 2020. We discuss his fascinating and important research, including the 10% of historical cases where societies recognized their danger and woke up in time, and how to do that today. He’s got some actionable solutions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more...
2018-11-0151 min
伍治坚Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut ): Ages of discord.My guest today is Professor Peter Turchin from the University of Connecticut. Professor Turchin has published two hundred articles, including a dozen in such top journals as Nature, Science, and PNAS. His publications are frequently cited and in 2004 he was designated as “Highly Cited Researcher” by ISIHighlyCited.com. Professor Turchin has authored seven books, including Secular Cycles, and War and Peace and War. Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Today, we will talk about one of his most recent books: Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History.W...
2017-11-1041 min
El MétodoPredecir la historia¿Y si pudiéramos predecir la historia? Esto -con limitaciones- es lo que promete hacer la cliodinámica, una disciplina que mezcla historia, sociología y matemática para traer al presente el sueño de Asimov de la psicohistoria. He hablado con Peter Turchin, su creador, y en este snack del día en el que Donald J. Trump se convertirá en el 45o Presidente de los Estados Unidos, os lo cuento. Un fecha muy, muy adecuada. Escucha el nuevo podcast de Cuonda: POLITIBOT, con María Ramírez y Eduardo Suárez...
2017-01-2016 min