Shows
Pitch The PMEP023: The Street Is Ahead of Itself on $DIS - park traffic seeing headwindsDoug Garber sits down with Sean Kumar (Humbucker Capital) to break down why Disney may be a value trap in disguise.Despite Disney’s evergreen IP and brand cachet, Kumar believes the street is mispricing the economics of DTC, overestimating ARPU growth, and underestimating park fatigue. He walks through his short framework grounded in bottoms-up segment analysis and consensus vs. internal modeling. 📉 Bearish Bias: Kumar has followed $DIS on the sell side and the buy side. While he respects the brand, he sees it as a value trap with street expectations too high for 2026.📊 Va...
2026-02-1242 minPitch The PMEP 022: The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPR...
2026-01-2555 minPitch The PMEP 021: Make America skinny again? The oral GLP-1 opportunity at Eli Lilly ($LLY)Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 is going to change how the obesity market can scale.In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber speaks with Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, a long/short equity fund focused on biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Doug and Sriker unpack why oral delivery matters for access, and long-term earnings power. The discussion focuses on how behavioral friction, PBMs, pricing mechanics, and policy all shape adoption, often more than clinical data alone.Topics include:Why obesity drugs are a penetration story, not just an ef...
2026-01-151h 01Pitch The PMEP 020: Is Open AI in trouble?In this episode, Doug sits down with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion on the current state of the AI arms race.Key Takeways:OpenAI has over-promised on the $1.4T of commitments to ORCL, CRWV, etc… and likely has to renegotiate and reduce the scope of its ambitions across the AI value chain to focus on their core like ChatGPT. There are big competitors in the LLM race, such as GOOG and META, so OpenAI will need deep pockets that are willing to bet on Altman to keep the st...
2025-12-231h 04Pitch The PMEP 019: Data Center & Energy Transitions Impact on the Oil & Natural Gas MarketsIn this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Wa...
2025-12-121h 08Pitch The PMEP.018 Behind the Curtain: Life Inside Top Hedge Fund PlatformsDoug Garber, former Citadel analyst and Millennium Senior PM, joins the Odds On Open podcast to unpack his experience inside two of the top multi-manager platforms. Up and comer, Ethan Kho, explores the culture inside these two leading alternative asset management firms. We explore what defines success at each firm and what really separates the PMs and analysts who thrive from those who don’t. Doug explains the real contrast between the two giants.Citadel runs like a tightly coordinated multi-strategy machine — centralized, structured, feedback-rich, and built around process.Millennium is a different anima...
2025-11-2553 minPitch The PMEP.017: Time to take profits in NBIS or is it the next AWS?In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, to discuss the “lost art” of international investing and dive deep on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund.They unpack Nebius’ origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global AI compute provider, and the overlooked value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differs from p...
2025-11-0552 minPitch The PMEP.016: Trick or Treat: The Unfolding RMCF comeback story. 10-to-1 Risk-RewardIn this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber sits down with Jeff Geygan, CEO of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), and Carrie Cass, the company’s CFO, to discuss how they’re rebuilding one of America’s most recognizable confectionery brands.The conversation goes far beyond chocolate — it’s a candid look at what real operational transformation looks like inside a small-cap public company.They cover:The steps taken to stabilize operations and rebuild cultureWhy data, ERP, and POS systems were the foundation for changePlans to expand east of the Mississippi and revitalize store growthManaging costs, margins, and franchisee...
2025-10-3054 minPitch The PMEP.015: From Fidelity to Fudge: Jonathan Kasen’s Buffett-Inspired Bet on ChocolateJonathan Kasen spent over a decade as a portfolio manager at Fidelity, analyzing industrial and energy companies through the lens of four key elements: organic growth, operating leverage, free cash flow conversion, and reinvestment opportunities. Today, he’s applying those same principles to his latest venture: chocolate.In this episode of Pitch The PM, Jonathan joins Doug Garber to talk about his journey from Wall Street to small business ownership. They dive deep into what makes a great compounder—public or private—and how Buffett’s See’s Candies investment and a shaky car ride with the Oracle him...
2025-10-1645 minPitch The PMEP.014: Why 40x Earnings May Not Hold | Fastenal Deep DiveWelcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this conversation, Doug reconnects with former Citadel colleague, Yuri Gelfman, for a deep dive on Fastenal ($FAST), a core name in the industrial distribution space. Yuri brings over a decade of coverage experience and shares why, despite Fastenal’s reputation as a high-quality compounder, the stock’s recent move to ~40x forward earnings looks stretched. They walk through the company’s evolution from branch-led growth to vending and on-site inventory management, why those growth engines may be plateauing, and how mean reversion on valuation could play out as comps normal...
2025-10-1456 minPitch The PMEP.013: AI Capex Super-Cycle: A Deep Look at Emerging Tech Trends and BottlenecksThe AI Capex Super-Cycle is well underway. We dive deep with Doug O'Laughlin, the President of SemiAnalysis - the leading field level industry experts and Michelle Brophy, the TMT DoR at AlphaSense. Watch the webinar now: https://lnkd.in/eUat9NyuIn this AlphaSense sponsored webinar we dive into all the key debates and which companies and products are winning across the entire AI Capex ecosystem. The SemiAnalysis team goes to 85 industry level conferences a year to get the inside scoop. From Hypersaclers, Neoclouds, Semi's, to E&C's and Industrial Manufacturers anything downstream of AI capex is what is working...
2025-09-191h 15Pitch The PMEP.012: Hydra Host: "The GPU Whisperer"Welcome to Pitch The PM, where host Doug Garber is joined by Aaron Ginn, CEO and Co-founder at Hydra Host.— — — —In this episode, Doug Garber and Aaron Ginn to unpack the forces reshaping the global AI infrastructure stack. They dive deep into Nvidia’s growing dominance and explore how CEO Jensen Huang is building an ecosystem designed to sideline the hyperscalers, financing their destruction while capturing more of the value chain.Aaron breaks down the shift from public cloud to bare metal, the margin squeeze facing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and why GPU infrastruc...
2025-08-041h 07Pitch The PMEP.011: VSTS: Sandbagged guide & new CEO’s turnaround plan could be a catalyst + high short interestWelcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this episode, Doug Garber flips roles and steps in as the analyst pitching Vestis Corporation (VSTS)—a recent spin-out, route-based industrial with a new CEO taking the helm after missteps from the initial CEO. Former SAC PM Hugh Anderson plays the part of portfolio manager, dissecting the thesis and poking holes in the evidence. Together they examine whether the business is broken or simply sandbagged, if re-aligning the sales force incentives by limiting credits can drive margin recovery, and whether new CEO Jim Barber (former UPS COO) can execute a...
2025-07-2950 minPitch The PMEP.010: Is $ZM the Next Stealth AI Winner?This episode is a replay of a webinar recorded on May 15th, where Ed Moya interviews Doug Garber, founder of Pitch the PM and Westport Alpha. Doug walks through his 10-step Variant View Checklist to make the case for Zoom ($ZM). Once seen as a COVID-era relic, Zoom is now a misunderstood, cash-rich business with sticky enterprise traction, product expansion into UCaaS, and a setup that offers asymmetric upside if growth reaccelerates.1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?Doug owns $ZM after hearing Sean Emory pitch it in Episode 2...
2025-07-2449 minPitch The PMEP.009: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: 50% of NAV & Pivoting to Higher Return IndustriesIn this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug welcomes Mark Layton, CFO of Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ: TUSK), to explore one of his highest conviction investment ideas and his first of twenty lifetime “Buffett punchcard” investments. This small cap company ($132 MM market cap) is valued below cash levels ($150 MM) with the market giving the company no credit for its existing businesses or underutilized equipment that was recently valued at $145 MM by an independent appraiser. The company recently exited its largest industrial business for $110 MM (more than 3x MOIC), has its land drilling rigs held for sale and subsequent to the...
2025-07-0946 minPitch The PMEP.008: Palantir ($PLTR): Irrationally Overvalued - Could Significant Index Rebalance be the Catalyst to Break it?In this episode of Pitch The PM, host Doug Garber sits down with Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, to discuss one of the market’s most buzzed-about stocks—Palantir (PLTR). Parker brings a sobering view of why PLTR’s irrational valuation could be set to crack on a significant index rebalance. After increasing over five fold over the last year and reaching a market cap of over $300 billion, PLTR is slated to be removed from the Russell mid-cap index where it is over an 8% weight. The discussion spans index rebalancing mechanics, passive investing distortions, and what it means when a $3...
2025-06-1840 minPitch The PMEP.007: JAZZ: Value with an Oncology Catalyst - 5x Risk-Reward RatioWelcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare...
2025-06-051h 00Pitch The PMEP.006: NVDA: Understanding the Bear CasePitch The PM Live Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors 5 key points discussed:✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRIC...
2025-05-1558 minPitch The PMEP.005: Inside The Process Of A Successful Portfolio ManagerA couple of weeks ago, Pitch The PM host Doug Garber had the opportunity to interview on the Searching Smarter Podcast at Selby Jennings. Selby Jennings is doing great work with Searching Smarter, so be sure to catch their latest episode here: https://youtube.com/@selbyjennings8854?si=xxoGyPPIopsnhMcN📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe------------The old paths to becoming a portfolio manager are fading. The bar is higher, the competition sharper, and the ski...
2025-05-0650 minPitch The PMEP.004: Nvidia ($NVDA): As Good as it GetsWelcome to Pitch The PM where host Doug Garber is joined by Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson for a deep-dive on NVDA.— — — —📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://lnkd.in/ekkxjp6z— — — —In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug and Gil candidly debate where Nvidia is in the GPU cycle, how Nvidia came to dominate the advanced chip market and what the road map looks like for advanced chip supply and demand. Gil outlines the current state of the...
2025-03-191h 19Pitch The PMEP.003: Pool Corp ($POOL): Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s Investment, Buying a Great Company in a LullIn addition to presenting high-conviction investment ideas, we also reverse engineer great investors’ theses to improve our process. Pool Corp. has a leading position in a good industry and has demonstrated the ability to consistently grow FCF/share in the mid-teens with a high ROIC. The current post-COVID pool industry downturn has led to negative sentiment, and long-term investors of great companies such as Berkshire see this as an opportunity to buy a great company at a “fair” price. We use a reverse DCF to impute that consensus expects FCF to grow in the mi...
2025-02-1337 minPitch The PMEP.002: Zoom ($ZM): Growth Acceleration, A CatalystHello and welcome back to Pitch The PM, where we debate high-conviction investment ideas with top PMs using our 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist. — — — —2-2.5x Return Potential. Post the COVID stock bubble, a laser-focused management team at Zoom worked to transform from a single-product company to an Enterprise platform. Revenue growth acceleration from low single-digits to high single-digits could be the catalyst for positive earnings revisions and potentially multiple re-rating.In the second episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager Doug Garber is swayed by Sean Emory’s ZM pitch. S...
2025-02-061h 24Pitch The PMEP.001: Barnes & Noble Education ($BNED): 3x Return Potential on TurnaroundIn the first episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager, Doug Garber, grills, Analyst, Alex Nuta's BNED pitch. The Analyst uses the 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist to convince his PM that BNED has the potential to be a 3-bagger.
2024-12-2151 min