Shows
The Foreign Affairs InterviewThe Coming Nuclear HurricaneIt wasn’t long ago that both heads of state and prominent policymakers could speak seriously about a world without nuclear weapons. But in the course of just a few years, nuclear concerns have come back in force. Arms control has broken down almost entirely. China has started a massive expansion of its arsenal, putting basic assumptions about deterrence in doubt. Vladimir Putin has threatened nuclear use in Ukraine—threats that were taken very seriously by American officials. And proliferation risks have grown, with regard to both American adversaries like Iran and American allies in Europe and Asia who may...2025-07-171h 04
Net AssessmentA New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a delicate political situation, and Zack commends Congressman Don Bacon for hi...2025-07-1054 min
Geopolitics Decanted by SilveradoWhy America's Nuclear Deterrence Strategy Needs to ChangeDmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Israel-Iran War
11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats
13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight...2025-07-0246 min
Strategic Simplicity PodcastTalking about Our recent FA article on "Nuclear Hurricane," hosted by Heather WilliamsHeather takes the mic to interview Vipin and I. We covered as much ground as we could in discussing our article, but spent most of our time discussing Iran, U.S. nuclear strategy (including why the United States retains a damage limitation objective and how that is complicated by China’s nuclear modernization and expansion), extended deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, and what we hope people are taking away from this writing.We end with some virtual hugs and talk about our recent experience in government.Follow Heather:* @heatherwilly...2025-07-011h 16
ChinaTalkWill Everyone Get Nukes Now?What is Trump doing to extended deterrence?
I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasa...2025-04-301h 17ChinaTalkWill Everyone Get Nukes Now?What is Trump doing to extended deterrence?
I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasa...2025-04-301h 17
Strategic Simplicity PodcastEuro Deterrent, Part Deux: The Podcast EditionA brief outline of the various topics we cover, as we really went all over the map, with timestamps:3m 30s: A little history on the UK and French nuclear strategies dating back to the Cold War, and interactions with U.S. extended nuclear deterrence.6m 00s: The absence of limited nuclear options among our nuclear allies in Europe, and the “religion” of escalation management.14m 00s: The varied challenges of Central Deterrence, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance; the importance of extended nuclear deterrence software and transparency in nuclear strategy for the holder of a nu...2025-04-0353 min
Arms Control WonkTusk Muses About France’s Force De FrappeDonald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US security guarantee. Links of Note: Building a Euro Deterrent: Easier Said Than Done, by Pranay Vaddi and Vipin Narang https://open.substack.com/pub/strategicsimplicity/p/building-a-euro-deterrent-easier?r=1l9z0c&utm_medium=ios Sup...2025-03-2142 min