Shows
The Navigator2025: tariffs, tech and U-turnsFor this episode of The Navigator podcast, we’re bringing you a conversation from Unlocking Markets, a podcast published by our colleagues at RBC BlueBay in London.Mark Dowding, CIO for our BlueBay fixed income platform, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, discuss an eventful year in global markets.From President Trump’s tariffs (and rollback of tariffs) to the ongoing AI boom, LDP leader Sanae Takaichi’s recent historic prime ministerial win in Japan, and high-profile bankruptcies in the US autos sector, there’s a lot to discuss as we head into year-end
2025-12-0820 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking markets: 2025 – tariffs, tech and U-turnsMark Dowding, CIO for our BlueBay fixed income platform, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, discuss an eventful year in global markets. From President Trump’s tariffs (and rollback of tariffs) to the ongoing AI boom, LDP leader Sanae Takaichi’s recent historic prime ministerial win in Japan, and high-profile bankruptcies in the US autos sector, there’s a lot to discuss as we head into year-end.
2025-11-2120 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsResponsible investing: a landscape of bright spots and shadowsAs Head of RBC GAM’s Responsible Investment team, Melanie Adams is well placed to speak on the ESG and responsible investing landscape, both in North American and Europe. In our new podcast episode, she and Freddie Fuller compare regulations across geographies, the political backdrop and ESG backlash in the US, and what the current environment means for both companies and asset managers.
2024-12-1118 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking markets: investing in a world of changeMark Dowding, BlueBay CIO, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, discuss what Trump 2.0 could mean for the US economy and markets, the challenges facing Europe, and the geopolitical landscape. With politics and policy continuing to create market volatility, Mark also emphasises the importance of skilled active management to generate alpha.
2024-12-0318 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking markets: ever-changing dynamics in emerging marketsPolina Kurdyavko, Head of BlueBay Emerging Markets and Senior Portfolio Manager, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, discuss recent drivers of returns, the impact of geopolitical events and – in a year of global elections – how the team’s proposed solution for the debt sustainability of Mexico’s largest state-owned oil company have been well received by the country’s presidential candidates.
2024-05-2121 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking markets: high-grade bond heaven?Kaspar Hense, BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager, Investment Grade, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, consider the big-picture themes they believe all those involved in high-grade bonds should consider, and discuss how the differing dynamics across the asset class can help drive returns.
2023-11-1512 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking markets: Going where the stress isAdam Phillips, Managing Director and BlueBay head of developed markets special situations, delves into the unusual challenges corporates and consumers face. Adam also discusses the magnitude of potential defaults and where the opportunities may lie across multiple sectors and countries for special situations.
2023-09-1816 min
RBC BlueBay InsightsA mild recession, surprisingly low volatility and real opportunities in fixed income - Mark DowdingMike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, talks to Mark Dowding, BlueBay CIO, RBC Bluebay Asset Management, about a range of topics that we believe all investors should be thinking about right now. From the risk of a credit crunch and recession in the US to the likelihood of further rate hikes in Europe, plus the impact of global markets if or when Japan ends yield curve control. They also discuss the state of investing in the UK and finally, take a look at what it is in store for investors in the second half of 2023.
2023-06-1420 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGlobal high yield update - Tim LearyTim Leary joins the BlueBay Insights podcast to give a 5min update on global high yield markets.We asked Tim:Have high yield spreads sold off by enough?Would you say high yield is in a better place now versus 2008?Why has there been so little issuance year to date?What’s the technical landscape like in US & European HY?What’s liquidity like in the market?How are you positioning as we shift into summer?
2022-06-0905 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGlobal high yield update - Tim LearyTim Leary joins the BlueBay Insights podcast to give a 5min update on global high yield markets.We asked Tim:It’s been volatile start to the year – how much has come from interest rate moves and how much is risk-premium driven?Can you take us through the performance of leveraged loans relative to high yield bonds so far this year – are you seeing any mispricing opportunities here? With defaults picking up, are there any safe havens in high yield?Now we’re well into Q1, have you seen any clear trends in flows?We’ve seen green...
2022-03-1404 minRBC BlueBay InsightsCLOs explained - Mark ShohetMark Shohet joins the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his expertise on CLOs and the current market opportunity.We asked Mark:What is a CLO?How do the debt tranches work in practice?What differentiates a CLO from other securitised products?How big is the CLO market and what are the issuance expectations for this year?What’s performance been like so far in 2022?Are CLOs looking attractive in the current market environment?How are the fundamentals?What do you see as the biggest risk for the asset class?
2022-03-0711 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFortress Russia lies in ruins - David RileyDavid Riley is joined by BlueBay’s EM Senior Sovereign Strategist Timothy Ash to discuss the macroeconomic implications of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
2022-03-0322 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA new Iron Curtain - David RileyDavid Riley is joined by BlueBay’s EM Senior Sovereign Strategist Timothy Ash in this special podcast discussing the rapidly escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
2022-02-2414 minRBC BlueBay InsightsRising rates and resilient markets - David RileyDavid Riley shares his views on Fed catch up and the move to higher yields.
2022-01-1411 minRBC BlueBay Insights2021 ends with divergent central banks - David RileyDavid Riley updates us on the latest raft of central bank meetings: the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the end of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme and a rise in Bank of England interest rates.
2021-12-1714 minRBC BlueBay InsightsINFLATION SPECIAL 3 – How’s it impacting the utilities sector?Tom Moulds & Robert Lambert join the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the impact of inflation on the energy and utilities sectors.We ask:Tom, if you could start us off with a quick summary of the inflationary environment and how it’s impacting fixed income investors.Rob, your specialist focus is utilities. Could you give us an overview of how inflation is impacting the sector? Which sub-sectors are seeing the most or least pricing pressure?Are we likely to see any beneficiaries of rising inflation and high energy prices?Alongside inflationary pressures, have ESG considerations had any...
2021-12-0207 minRBC BlueBay InsightsINFLATION SPECIAL 2 – How’s it impacting the industrials sector?Tim Leary and Jeff Cramer join the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the impact of inflation on industrials and the power sector and how it’s influencing high yield and leveraged finance strategies.We ask:Tim, with interest rates rising, inflation is a hot topic for investors. Can you give us a quick summary on the inflation situation and what it means for high yield?Jeff, one of your specialist focus areas is industrials. Could you give us an overview of how inflation is affecting the sector?What’s causing that inflation specifically?Have ESG considerations had...
2021-11-2506 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInflation, real yields, and credit - David RileyChief Investment Strategist David Riley joins us to discuss inflation as a dominant theme in global markets, and to answer the question, “Is there excessive exuberance in credit markets?”.
2021-11-2113 minRBC BlueBay InsightsINFLATION SPECIAL 1 – How’s it impacting the energy sector?Tim Leary and Frank McCreary join the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the impact of inflation on the energy sector and how it’s influencing high yield and leveraged finance strategies.We ask:Tim, can you give us a quick summary on the inflation situation and what it means for high yield investors?Frank, you’re an energy specialist. How is inflation impacting the sector?Can you expand on this – how exactly is the oil & gas sector pushing up inflation?What are some of the reasons for the dramatic rise in commodity prices?How exactly have weathe...
2021-11-1807 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA rates tantrum, not a taper tantrumDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his views on short term volatility and interest rates.
2021-11-0516 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInflation is not stagflation - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss his views on inflation .
2021-10-1517 minRBC BlueBay InsightsBondholder engagement for improved ESG investing – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss how he engages with issuers to make better investment decisions and to drive ESG progress. We asked Tim:Increasing levels of bondholder engagement have tracked the growth of ESG considerations when investing. How have you seen this play out in the industry?As a risk taker, how do you engage with bond issuers?Within the fixed income universe, are there nuances across the different credit asset classes that shape how you engage or what influence you can have?Could you give us an example of s...
2021-10-0504 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG conscious investors should not leave the worst ESG performers behind – Alex CollinsAlex Collins joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the main challenges of ESG in Emerging Markets.We asked Alex:How should we think about ESG in Emerging Markets?What should investors keep in mind when applying ESG methodologies?Can you summarise the main challenges of ESG in Emerging Markets?
2021-10-0408 minRBC BlueBay InsightsWall of worry - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on recent global market volatility, the lack of market reaction to the Fed announcing the tapering of QE and power prices in Europe.
2021-09-2415 minRBC BlueBay InsightsUnlocking the bondholder’s voice - Lucy ByrneLucy Byrne joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss ESG engagement and how bondholders can have their say. We asked Lucy: What do investors mean when they talk about engagement?How can bondholders engage without voting?How does BlueBay use engagement methods to have a positive ESG impact?Can you share an example of collaborative engagement?
2021-09-2103 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGetting warmer - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and his thoughts on the macroeconomic implications of climate change.
2021-09-1016 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInvesting responsibly in high yield – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss how energy underweights and bondholder engagement impact high yield investing.We asked Tim:Can high yield ESG strategies continue to perform in a prolonged commodity rally?Does running a high yield ESG strategy mean you completely exclude oil producers?Other high yield ESG managers often run energy overweights, whereas you’re underweight the sector – can you talk us through this positioning?Bondholder engagement is gaining momentum within the industry – what gives high yield investors a slightly more powerful voice in this space compared to say, invest...
2021-09-0104 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG & Water Investment Update – Robert LambertSenior Corporate analyst, Robert Lambert, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to speak about ESG and water-related issues.
2021-08-2503 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets update - Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko, Head of Emerging Markets, speaks with Institutional Portfolio Manager, Bashir Farukh on the current emerging markets outlook.
2021-08-2007 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFrom London to Beijing and Washington - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss volatility in Chinese financial markets and the latest news from the Federal Reserve meeting.
2021-07-3011 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGlobal high yield update – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to give a quick update on global high yield markets.
2021-07-2003 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInflation higher, rates lower, 16 July 2021 - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to review the year so far and share his views on key themes for second half of 2021
2021-07-1614 minRBC BlueBay InsightsBanks’ overlooked value pocket - James MacdonaldJames Macdonald joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the overlooked yield potential offered by national champion banks and his outlook for the sector.
2021-07-1405 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG Investment Update – Lucy ByrneSenior ESG analyst, Lucy Byrne, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to speak about the ESG Investment Update.
2021-06-2905 minRBC BlueBay InsightsNow we’re talking - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the market response to the US Federal Reserve meeting.In this episode David discusses his latest paper on inflation expectations.
2021-06-1812 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInflation is dead, long live inflation - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the investment implications for higher inflationIn this episode we ask David about his views on inflation over the coming months. David also discusses the market implications of volatility in cryptocurrencies.
2021-05-2115 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInvesting responsibly in high yield – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss how ESG factors do (and don’t) impact high yield investing.We asked Tim:Can you really be a high performer and limit your investible universe?How do you mitigate the tracking error associated with ESG exclusions, namely fossil fuels?Is there an appropriate high yield benchmark for ESG investors who are focused on climate risks?In general, how does portfolio turnover in a HY ESG strategy compare to a conventional fund?What’s your approach to managing downside?Are there any complications associated with ESG...
2021-05-1104 minRBC BlueBay InsightsKeynes return and not all surprises are positive - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on President Biden’s first 100 days in office from an investor perspective.We asked David:What is your assessment of US President Biden’s first 100 days in office from an investor perspective?Will President Biden’s spending and tax plans get passed and what are the broader implications?Could Europe could follow the US in a more Keynesian approach to fiscal policy?US economic data continues to be impressive but there was a big downside miss on jobs in April.
2021-05-0712 minRBC BlueBay InsightsBears stay away from Goldilocks - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss credit markets and the policy monetary policy meetings.We asked David:Global equities have posted new highs and US Treasury yields have fallen. Are we back in a ‘goldilocks’ environment for markets?How would you characterise the state of credit markets?With valuations quite high by historic standards, how much more value is there left in credit?You mentioned emerging market credit as lagging developed market credit in the first months of this year. Is there contagion risk from the distress of the Chinese company Huar...
2021-04-2315 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGlobal high yield update – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to give a quick update on global high yield markets as we enter Q2. We asked Tim:Can you give us a quick overview of the global high yield market year-to-date – how’s the first quarter gone for US high yield?How does that compare to European HY?Which market do you favour for the rest of the year?What do you think will drive returns through Q2 and into the second half of the year?Conversely, what do you see as the top three challenges or risks...
2021-04-1203 minRBC BlueBay InsightsMuch to ponder in the months ahead - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the months ahead.We asked David:Let’s take stock of the quarterWhat do you think will be the key issues and themes for the quarter ahead? You highlighted is another fiscal package out of Washington. Moving over to Europe - there seems to be some risk to the implementation of the EU Recovery Fund. What is going on?Any thoughts on the Archegos saga?
2021-04-0113 minRBC BlueBay InsightsPatient Powell, impatient markets - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the latest round of central bank meetings.We asked David:The US Federal Reserve meeting was highly anticipated. Did it live up to its headline billing?The Fed revised up its growth and inflation forecasts, but was there any change to its interest rate projections, the so-called dots?It does seem the Fed was very dovish, yet bond yields continue to move higher.The US Federal Reserve was not the only central bank meeting yesterday. The Brazilian central bank also held a policy...
2021-03-1913 minRBC BlueBay InsightsBulls, bubbles and bond vigilantes - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his views on the performance of the financial markets and the latest economic data.We asked David:What are your takeaways from the performance of financial markets so far this year?China’s top bank regulator said he is worried by bubbles in foreign financial markets. Do you share his concerns?Returning to the bond market, is the tantrum over?Stepping back, is the flow of economic data consistent with our above-consensus view for global growth?Any key highlights from the UK budget worth sharing wi...
2021-03-0517 minRBC BlueBay InsightsBond bears growling - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his views on bond yields. Will they go higher?We asked David:Yields on government bonds have moved meaningfully higher. What are the drivers of the rise in bond yields?Do you think that bond yields can go much higher?Are you worried that there could be another ‘taper tantrum’?Are you concerned by higher bond yields?
2021-02-1917 minRBC BlueBay InsightsCocos in the sweet spot – Marc StaceyMarc Stacey joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his expertise on coco bonds & European banks, discussing fundamentals, risks, ESG opportunities and the potential investment ‘sweet spot’ enjoyed by AT1 capital.We asked Marc:Banks were deemed villains following the global financial crisis back in 2008 but have been a key part of the solution to the corona virus pandemic. Can you talk us through this shift and what it means for investors?Your investment approach has always focused on fundamentals – how are things looking right now? What’s the situation with non-performing loans – have we seen th...
2021-02-0916 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGlobal high yield update – Andrzej SkibaAndrzej Skiba joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his expertise on the high yield asset class, discussing growth trends, the default outlook, ESG factors and where he sees investment potential this year.We asked Andrzej: With the roll-out of Covid vaccines, most economists are predicting a sharp rebound in global growth during 2021. In your view, could this lead to inflationary pressures and losses in bond markets and how might this impact the high yield asset class?Default rates were surprisingly low in 2020 largely due to government support schemes. As these schemes come to a...
2021-02-0912 minRBC BlueBay InsightsRobinhood, Super Mario and the power of science - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the vaccine rollout, corporate earnings and Reddit traders.We asked David:January had been a relatively quiet month for financial markets but ended with headlines over Reddit traders taking on Wall Street. What is your take?In our last podcast, you said you were watching the vaccine rollout and corporate earnings. Let’s discuss vaccines first, there has been quite a lot of news over the last week or so.Finally, what are your initial thoughts on former ECB President Mario Draghi becoming Italy’s new...
2021-02-0515 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG update – Lucy ByrneSenior ESG analyst, Lucy Byrne, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss increased transparency in ESG.We asked Lucy:What are the key themes for ESG in our industry for 2021?What are our ESG priorities at BlueBay?How can we practically apply ESG integration?
2021-02-0108 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook 2021 - Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on BlueBay Insights to share the outlook for Emerging Marketing in 2021.We asked Polina:In a world hungry for growth and income, where do the opportunities lie for Emerging Markets investors in 2021?After a very volatile year what are the key macro and geopolitical risks facing Emerging Markets in 2021?How could EM be impacted by a Biden presidency?How should investors position EM fixed income within their portfolios as 2021 gets underway?
2021-01-2907 minRBC BlueBay InsightsPolicy, politics and vaccines - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast.We asked David:Joe Biden was inaugurated this week as the 46th President of the United States. What’s your take on his first actions in office and the market implications?Talking of politics, there has been a lot going on in Europe over the last couple of weeks. Can you give a brief update?What were the key takeaways from the latest ECB meeting?What else are you watching right now David?
2021-01-2215 minRBC BlueBay InsightsPodcast, China & a Biden presidency - Zhenbo HouZhenbo Hou joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on how a change in US leadership could impact China.We asked Zhenbo:Emerging markets rallied as we learnt of the Democratic victory back in November, but what’s the state of play now – how has Trump left relations with China as we head into Biden’s inauguration and how are markets reacting?The Biden administration is expected to bring the return of multilateralism – do you see this manifesting through greater cooperation with China on global issues, or perhaps the US and Europe working...
2021-01-1508 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGeorgia on my mind - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his outlook on 2021.We asked David:This is our first podcast of 2021 and it has been an extraordinary start to the year…With the Democrats winning the Georgia Senate races, what are the implications for US policy and investors?Regarding the rise in inflation expectations – is inflation something investors should worry about?We saw a strong rally in December in risk markets yet the virus and lockdowns continue to spread. Is there a disconnect between the market and the real world?
2021-01-0815 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGood riddance to 2020, hope for 2021 - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the latest economic data and shares highlights from his 2021 outlook.We asked David:There has been a huge amount of economic data and policy news over the last few weeks. What are the takeaways?You recently published your investment outlook for 2021. What are the key highlights?Are you concerned that our investment outlook is consensual?
2020-12-1814 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe good, bad and the ugly - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss vaccine news, a credit wind-down in the US and the implications of the Biden administration.We asked David:Markets seem to be caught between good news on vaccines and bad news on the virus and growth.US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has told the Fed to wind-down its credit facilities. What are the implications for the US credit market?President Trump has finally said that transition to the incoming Biden administration should go ahead. What is your view on what a Biden administration will look like...
2020-11-2714 minRBC BlueBay InsightsV is for Vaccine - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the impact of positive vaccine news on markets.We asked David:The excitement of the US elections was followed by positive news on a COVID vaccine. Is the vaccine news a game-changer for markets?With the rally in risk markets post the US election and now with the vaccine news, can it continue and what are the broad asset implications?You mention bumps in the road – where could they come from?
2020-11-1312 minRBC BlueBay InsightsImplications of the US elections - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share initial thoughts on the US election, fiscal stimulus in Europe and a market rally.We asked David:Where do we stand right now in terms of the US presidential election?Is there a chance of a contested election?You have previously highlighted the importance of which party controls the Senate. What happened in the Senate race?Why did markets rally through yesterday despite the uncertainty around the US elections?What do you think are the market implications of a Biden presidency and split Congress?Finally...
2020-11-0515 minRBC BlueBay InsightsDeadlines come and go... - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the outlook for China, and the latest on the US election and Brexit.We asked David:There is a pick-up in coronavirus cases across Europe. What are the economic and market implications?This week is another Brexit deadline. What is the current state of play in EU – UK negotiations and outlook for the UK?Turning from UK to the world’s second biggest economy, what is the outlook for China?You mention the US elections and last week you published a note on t...
2020-10-1515 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets.We asked Polina:How are Emerging Markets reacting to next month’s US election?We’ve recently seen an emerging-market corporate borrower issue debt with an ESG focus – do you think this will be a growing trend?The economic situation in Argentina appears to present a precarious outlook – can you share you view?
2020-10-1305 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe state of play – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the market implications of the US elections.We asked David:Why have financial markets been choppy and without direction of late?We had the first US presidential debate this week. What is the current state of play in the US elections?What are the market implications of the US elections?
2020-10-0215 minRBC BlueBay InsightsLiquidity in leveraged finance markets – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update on high yield and leveraged finance markets, with a special focus on the subject of liquidity.We asked Tim:How does the global high-yield universe breakdown in terms of the US and European split? Are there any notable differences between the two regions that investors should be aware of?What percentage of the US HY market trades enough to be considered liquid?In terms of active versus passive investing – how significant is the ETF portion of the universe?As an active manager, how do you de...
2020-09-2807 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG update – Lucy ByrneSenior ESG analyst, Lucy Byrne, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her views on the impact of the COVID crisis on ESG investing.We asked Lucy:Has the appetite for ESG among investors increased during the COVID crisis?How has BlueBay’s ESG business been affected by the crisis?What is the rationale behind BlueBay’s ESG priorities for 2020 and where do you see areas for improvement?
2020-09-2408 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe return of the Brexit saga – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the Brexit saga and the latest takeaways form the Fed.We asked David:Brexit has returned onto investors’ radar. What are your thoughts on the latest developments in the Brexit saga?What are your takeaways from the latest Fed meeting?
2020-09-1812 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA positive month for credit markets – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast for his regular update on the latest economic data.We asked David:US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is a big point of debate amongst investors. What is your view on the Fed’s new policy framework?What are you expecting from next week’s meeting of the European Central Bank?Equity and credit markets had another positive month in August. Do you expect the rally to continue?
2020-09-0412 minRBC BlueBay InsightsHigh yield’s summer run – Tim LearyTim Leary joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update on high yield’s positive summer run, what might be to come in the default cycle and how influential ESG really is to leveraged finance investors.We asked Tim:High yield has had an encouraging summer run – July proved to be a notable month for the US market, which registered its largest monthly gain since October 2011. Has the investment opportunity largely topped out for the year or are you still seeing value?The second-quarter earnings season seemed broadly upbeat for high-yield companies – did any se...
2020-08-2106 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets.We asked Polina:After prolonged negotiations between the Argentine government and major bond holder groups, there seemed to be a swift end to restructuring talks. Firstly, were you surprised by the eventual agreement and secondly, what are the broader implications for the country?Considering the unfortunate circumstances surrounding the Beirut port explosion, how do you evaluate governance risk within the investment process?Staying in the same region, some investors have perceived the recent bout of Turkish lira weakness as a...
2020-08-1806 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFrom bad to worse – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the latest economic data, US-China relations and the upcoming US elections.We asked David:Since we last spoke there has been a raft of economic data. What does it tell us about the outlook for the global economy?In the second quarter, the UK economy contracted more than any other major economy – what’s the outlook for the UK?US-China relations appear to be going from bad to worse – why aren’t the markets reacting?You've just mentioned the US elections. Do you think th...
2020-08-1413 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA weaker US dollar – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to update us on the latest quarterly GDP figures from the US.We asked David:A theme that has emerged in markets is the weakness of the US dollar. Are we entering a dollar bear market?You mentioned the rise in the gold price and worries about central banks debasing currencies with money printing. What are the implications for fixed income investors?Our discussion is highlighting just how important the Fed is for markets. What is your takeaway from the latest Fed meeting?The second quarter US...
2020-07-3114 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFiscal stimulus – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to talk about fiscal stimulus, the Fed, and yield curve control.We asked David:What’s your view on the agreement by EU leaders on a new European Recovery fund?Is the package big enough to support the recovery in the EU economy? You mentioned US fiscal stimulus. Congress is debating another budget package. What is the latest and what do you expect?The Fed meets next week. What are you expecting?What is yield curve control?
2020-07-2413 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets.We asked Polina:Over the past weekend the Ecuadorian government reached an agreement in principle with a major group of private bondholders which included BlueBay. How does this negotiation compare with previous restructuring talks that you have been involved in?Do you expect the sovereign debt re-profiling theme to be one of your key focus areas for the rest of the year? What other countries will be talking to creditors and how significant is Ecuador’s precedent for ot...
2020-07-2210 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA V shaped recovery or a long haul? – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to talk about the latest jobs data from the US and the likelihood of a V shaped recovery.We asked David:There has been a lot of focus on the recent upturn in the number of COVID infections in the US. Are investors right to be concerned or are these worries exaggerated?What are the implications for the US economy and recovery?You have stressed the importance of the jobs market for the recovery. Can you explain why it is so key to y...
2020-07-0311 minRBC BlueBay InsightsCredit update – Andrzej SkibaAndrzej Skiba joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his views on credit.We asked Andrzej:We saw a performance reversal during May with the US overtaking Europe – what drove this regional switch? What drove the three-week performance run and why did it end?Fallen angels remain topical – how are you investing here? Are you seeing any immediate cross-over opportunities post-Covid?Lower-rated securities have generally trailed the overall high-yield rebound, although we’ve recently seen some signs of triple Cs outpacing double Bs – can you comment on what’s happening here?...
2020-06-3007 minRBC BlueBay InsightsKey themes for the second half of the year – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the latest macroeconomic data and key themes for the second half of 2020.We asked David:What can investors take from the latest round of macroeconomic data?As we are in the middle of June, what do you think are the key themes for investors in the second half of the year?You mentioned Brexit and as you forecasted, the Bank of England announced an increase in its bond buying. What is the outlook for UK assets in your view?
2020-06-1912 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets.We asked Polina:Emerging market currencies have risen by around 7% relative to the US dollar over the past month. Do you think they are simply rebounding to pre sell-off levels or is this the beginning of a more sustained rally?Emerging market sovereign hard-currency bond issuance is running at record pace compared to prior years. Should investors interpret that positively or negatively?From a corporate perspective, which companies are the most resilient to the current economic...
2020-06-1710 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets .We asked Polina:Emerging market currencies have risen by around 7% relative to the US dollar over the past month. Do you think they are simply rebounding to pre sell-off levels or is this the beginning of a more sustained rally? Emerging market sovereign hard-currency bond issuance is running at record pace compared to prior years. Should investors interpret that positively or negatively? From a corporate perspective, which companies are the most resilient to the current economic conditions and similarly which on...
2020-06-1710 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe dash for trash – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the current market outlook and latest moves by the Fed to provide liquidity.We asked David:What did we learn from the latest meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy committee?What do you think are the downside risks to the economic and market outlook?Last week we talked a little about recent market developments. What has caught your attention?
2020-06-1210 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe outlook for growth – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the rebound in financial markets and to explain the ECB’s latest policy support.We asked David: There has been a meaningful rebound in many financial markets since March. What do you think will be the drivers for markets over the next few months?You remarked that the European Central Bank recently announced further policy support. Can you explain the ECB’s latest actions and the market implications?Relations between the US and China appear to be worsening. What is the current state of play?
2020-06-0515 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFocus on the fundamentals - Marc StaceyMarc Stacey joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his views on the current market.Can you explain what national champion banks are, how they influence the economy and their importance to investors?In your view, will only the nation champions likely make it through this crisis, or are you finding other attractive bank holdings through bottom-up issuer selection?Banks were deemed villains following the global financial crisis back in 2008 but could potentially prove heroes this time – can you explain why this is?How long do you think the current div...
2020-05-2211 minRBC BlueBay InsightsInvestor anticipation – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss market volatility, the European recovery fund and the outlook for UK assets.We asked David:There has recently been a pick-up in market volatility. What are investors reacting to?You mentioned the Franco-German proposal for the European recovery fund. Can you tell us a more about its significance?Staying in Europe, Brexit appears to be moving back onto investors’ radar. What is our current assessment and the outlook for UK assets?
2020-05-2012 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe market implications of easing lockdown – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the market implications of relaxing lockdowns.We asked David:What is your current thinking on easing of restrictions and the resulting market consequences?A feature of credit markets, especially in investment grade, is a surge in bond supply. Why and what are the implications?You mentioned that central banks will have to keep interest rates at very low levels because of the extra debt created by the crisis. DO you think the Fed will follow the ECB and Bank of Japan by...
2020-05-1412 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets outlook – Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share her perspectives on Emerging Markets.We asked Polina:Are there any price dislocations from an Emerging Market Debt perspective that have surprised you?Over the last few weeks we have seen plenty of new issuance from Emerging Market Sovereigns. Do you expect corporates to follow in the coming weeks?How do you expect the recent deterioration of China’s political relationship with the West to affect the economic and market outlook?Generally, markets have been expecting a deflationary bias be...
2020-05-0612 minRBC BlueBay InsightsCentral Bank domination – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to recap news from the central banks.We asked David:What are the key takeaways from recent Central Bank meetings?Should investors be worried by inflation?Are rising government debt levels a cause for concern?
2020-05-0111 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA Rational Rebound – Andrzej SkibaAndrzej Skiba joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to recap recent market events and share his views on credit.We asked Andrzej:What were the highlights and lowlights in April?What drove the three-week performance run and why did it end?Were the latest central bank actions positive?What are the differences between the US and Europe in terms of issuance?How are energy companies coping in the US?How are you positioning to account for rising defaults?What’s your current outlook?
2020-04-3013 minRBC BlueBay InsightsUpdate from the CIO – Mark DowdingChief Investment Officer Mark Dowding provides his views on the last two weeks, black swan events, what hasn’t changed and where we go from here.We asked Mark:What’s changed in the last two weeks (since your last podcast)?Looking at the rest of the Q2, what do you think we will see? And more long term?
2020-04-2408 minRBC BlueBay InsightsFrom recession to recovery – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss his new paper on the path to recovery as well as share his thoughts on oil prices and EU fiscal unity.We asked David:What happened to the price of oil this week and what is the impact?What were some of the takeaways from your new note on the path to recovery?Could the EU unravel without a more united fiscal stance?
2020-04-2311 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe importance of country and credit selection – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to explain the significance of the recent Fed measures.We asked David: What is the significance of the Fed measures?Will the rally in risk assets continue? What do you think the path of the economic recovery will be? What is the outlook for emerging markets?
2020-04-1711 minRBC BlueBay InsightsUpdate from the CIO – Mark DowdingChief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, speaks about recent market volatility and what he is focusing on now, as an investor.We asked Mark:What are your overall thoughts about market events in the last three weeks?With market dislocation comes opportunities – are you seeing any green shoots?What is most important to you for the next few days?
2020-04-0909 minRBC BlueBay InsightsA more positive attitude to markets? - Ken YoshidaKen Yoshida joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss market volatility and liquidity. We asked Ken: How is the Japan office coping with new working patterns?How are Japanese clients responding to the current market volatility?
2020-04-0807 minRBC BlueBay InsightsUpdate from the COO – Luc LeclercqChief Operating Officer, Luc Leclercq joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to speak about his main areas of focus during these unprecedented times. What are your main areas of focus?How will the impact of the last few weeks change our industry going forward?
2020-04-0805 minRBC BlueBay InsightsThe end of the sell off? – David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the latest economic data and highlights key takeaways from his research on investment grade credit published earlier this week. We asked David: What are the early signs on the economic data on the depth of the global recession?When will economies get back to work? You have just published some research on investment grade credit. What are the key takeaways? Are we at the end of the sell off?
2020-04-0314 minRBC BlueBay InsightsEmerging Markets update - Polina KurdyavkoPolina Kurdyavko, Head of Emerging Markets, speaks with Claudio Da Gama Rose, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Insights podcast to answer questions on responses of governments and corporates to the current situation. We asked Polina: How you think EM governments will manage the fallout from the crisis – do you think sovereign issuers have enough buffers to manage upcoming maturities for the rest of the year? In your opinion, which EM region and countries have the most policy flexibility? And now switching to companies, what is the funding pressure looking like for EM corporates? What are your de...
2020-04-0213 minRBC BlueBay InsightsLeveraged loans update - Marc KempMarc Kemp joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss leveraged loan market performance, price action and fundamentals. We asked Marc:We’ve heard a lot about precipitous falls in high yield bonds and a commensurate spread widening over the past couple of weeks – how have leveraged loans fared?The magnitude of moves is really very large and essentially on par with what we have seen in high yield bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic – that’s pretty unusual isn’t it?Why do you think loans actually lagged over the pa...
2020-04-0109 minRBC BlueBay InsightsGrounds for cautious market optimism - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to share his thoughts on the latest actions from policymakers.We asked David:Have policymakers done enough to support the economy and financial markets?Are we over the worst of the sell off?In the short term - what indicators do you look to for insights?
2020-03-2714 minRBC BlueBay InsightsHY fundamentals & fallen angels - Marc KempMarc Kemp joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss fundamentals, defaults and fallen angels in global high yield markets.The views expressed in this piece are not intended to be a source of advice or credit analysis and the information does not constitute investment advice.We asked Marc:Things are clearly changing rapidly – how do you assess fundamentals for the companies that you follow in such an environment?What’s your latest thinking on defaults?Can you comment on falling angels? Presumably pressure will be evident on the inve...
2020-03-2511 minRBC BlueBay InsightsLikely next steps - Graham StockGraham Stock joins us on BlueBay insights to discuss the latest economic data from China.
2020-03-2408 minRBC BlueBay InsightsHigh yield market moves - Marc KempMarc Kemp joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the most recent movements in global high yield, how the market is differentiating despite the chaos and how we’re not reliving 2007.We asked Marc:We’re clearly in unprecedented times, can you help us frame the magnitude of the moves that we have seen in global high yield markets over recent weeks?Have you witnessed an element of differentiation in those moves or has everything fallen indiscriminately?How does this all compare to 2007?
2020-03-2309 minRBC BlueBay InsightsMarket update - where do we go from here? - David RileyDavid Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss latest market developments and outlines a path to stability.We asked David:Where do you think we stand now in terms of the spread of the virus and the economic and financial consequences?Is this the beginning of the end of this crisis? When will we see economic and market recovery?Why are some commentators now suggesting that we again are facing a financial crisis?What has been happening in fixed and credit markets?What i...
2020-03-2014 minRBC BlueBay InsightsLooking beyond the near term - David RileyDavid Riley, Chief Investment Strategist, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the volatility in financial markets, likelihood of recession and buying opportunities for investors.David answers:We have seen huge volatility in financial markets in the last few weeks as the coronavirus has spread with big corrections in equity markets, widening in credit spreads and government bond yields falling to record lows. Have markets over-reacted?You mentioned the collapse in oil prices in 2015 and oil prices have fallen around 40% in the last few weeks. What are the implications of the collapse...
2020-03-1318 minRBC BlueBay InsightsOpportunities in Cocos - Marc StaceyMarc Stacey joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the fundamentals, supply dynamics and banking sector changes that are lining up to form a compelling case for European bank capital. We asked Marc:What are coco bonds and what can they offer investors?The evolution of banking regulation has a huge influence on the investment case for cocos – do you think future changes will be positive or negative for the asset class?We’ve seen cocos go from zero to become an asset class worth over USD200 billion in just five years. What...
2020-02-2615 minRBC BlueBay InsightsESG impacts Q&A – My-Linh NgoMy-Linh, Head of ESG Investment Risk, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss climate change, rising client interest and industry action points for smart and sustainable ESG investing. My-Linh answersAre you seeing elevated interest from BlueBay investors regarding climate change and ESG as a whole? What can the asset management industry do to make a positive impact over the next decade?Are you seeing the industry make cultural changes to allow ESG-led ideas to overwrite the old ways of doing things?ESG has always been a part of the BlueBay investment a...
2020-02-1014 min
RBC BlueBay Insights2020 Global Investment Outlook - David Riley Global growth is at point of positive inflection. The dovish pivot by global central banks and policy easing by Beijing; the de-escalation of the US-China trade war and reduced Brexit uncertainty; and end of the inventory correction in manufacturing will support a pick-up in global growth relative to the US in 2020.Risk premiums in lower rated credit and growth-sensitive assets, including emerging market currencies and corporate credit, will in my view decline as fears of recession fade. But with mediocre growth and high debt, the global economy is vulnerable to negative shocks. in...
2019-12-1911 min