Shows
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsCHATGPT AND METhe release of ChatGPT has been transformative to say the least. How does this effect me I wonder? I have an AI agent on my landing page at www.brumbycapital.com which I have been experimenting with. Much like almost all computer programs - it is great at repetitive chores (I have loaded it up with my last 100 substack posts - so it can tell you my recent thoughts on anything). But plainly it does not have access to all the different experiences that have come to effect my thinking. So I could make an AI agent that communicates...
2025-07-1708 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsMarket Update With Russell ClarkI did a market update with Maggie Lake yesterday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2025-04-1144 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE RUSSELL CLARK "TRADING RULES"This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comAs I gear up for the fund launch, I am slowly but surely shaking off the apathy of being a personal investor and moving back to fund manager mode, and this is pushing me back to using my own trading rules. Personal investors in my experience are much more tolerant of losing positions. That is holding on to a mistake in the hope that it will “come good”. Certainly, I have been guilty of this in recent years. But now I am i...
2025-02-2800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsHORSEHEAD CAPITAL - GOOD NAME OR BAD NAME?Naming a fund is a real chore, and I need your help. In my experience, fund management firms have two main different options for fund naming. They can name after themselves, or use some slightly esoteric words that describes their “values”. Examples of the first abound - Soros, Rokos, Balyasny are just a few. Of the second, we have LTCM, Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance Technologies, Global Asset Management are also just a few.When I had been running the Horseman Global fund for a while, it always amused me to find investors thought the Horseman name was base...
2025-02-2403 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsCHRISTMAS COMPETITION - FINANCE HAIKUI want to run a competition to find the best finance haiku. This has been inspired by my recent post, “No Country For Old Macro”, when a subscriber left the following comment:Macro = atlantic ocean with 100m height of wavesInvestors = the sailing shipOnly the macro huge sailing ship may survive in the wavy Atlantic ocean especially during the storm.Poor retailer = sure die in the Atlantic oceanFor me it has haiku qualities - referencing nature to make a deeper point. As it so happens I am near...
2024-12-1103 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE INFLATION TRADE AND JAPANESE BANKSThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI like Japanese banks as an inflation trade. Of all the markets I look at it, it seems that changing policies could turn into a long bull market for the banks. I was particularly drawn to the relative trend change in Japanese banks to the Topix.Of course this is only useful if the Topix is in an uptrend. Topix is down 5% this month, and banks are looking like they might break lower.In the pro-capital, deflationary...
2024-08-2700 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsEXISTENTIAL ANGST HAS RETURNEDThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comWhen I got my first fund back in 2006, I had nothing to lose. I had no money, and only one investor. I was bullish on emerging markets, but almost as soon as I got fully invested in April 2006 (100% long) and made a quick 10%. Then the markets dumped, and I drew down over 20%. I remember going home to my new wife and telling her how I had already fucked my one shot. John Horseman was my only investor, he called me over...
2024-08-2300 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS JAPAN GOING TO HAVE AN INVESTMENT BOOM?For years Japan had a tourism imbalance. Japanese went and travelled the world, but the numbers of tourists visiting Japan was limited. Under Prime Minister Abe a number of policies were implemented to promote tourism. Since 2011, the number of tourist has surged six fold and has recently eclipsed pre-Covid levels.In Japanese current account data, Japan now receives more from tourism that it spends. As late as 2014, this balance was negative, but is now extremely positive.There is another imbalance in the Japanese economy that I think may soon be rectified. Japan, almost uniquely among...
2024-08-2112 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT DO BOND YIELDS REALLY TELL YOU?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comLets talk about macro. There are lots of big macro questions to answer, but I think we now have enough data, and market action to answer them in a coherent and simple way. There are two (or three) big macro conundrums which I think we can answer with a single model. First of all, why did JGB yields fall from 1990 onwards, and Yen strengthened when the US economy weakened in that period? And why are Chinese government bond yields so low...
2024-08-1600 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsSHOULD WE FEAR THE CARRY TRADE?Markets have had a rough month in August so far. The favourite reason given is the unwinding of the carry trade - precipitated by rising interest rates in Japan. For most investors in the market, the idea of Japan ever being able to raise interest rates seems like a fantasy - and the episodic unwinding of the carry trade is seen as one reason.One popular carry trade has been long Mexican Peso funded by shorting Yen. Mexico is paying nearly 11% on deposit, while Japan had negative interest rates for until recently. Not only has carry been...
2024-08-1307 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsRED PILL - BLUE PILL TIMEI had been fairly relaxed about markets. Nothing much looked like it was unwinding, and yet we saw Nikkei VIX touch 70 this week, a level seen during the GFC and Covid. Current levels have tended to be associated with crises of some sort.The move in VIX is even more surprising to me as leading indicators like Japanese banks and JGBs were pointing to continued wage growth and inflation in my mind. When Japanese banks roll over, then problems are more likely, and they rolled over in 1999, 2006, 2015, and potentially now. That is historically, Japanese banks...
2024-08-0811 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHERE DID THAT NFP NUMBER COME FROM?As I write this, markets have gone for a good old growth scare. It has also happened at a time when the BOJ is beginning to tighten policy. We are getting big moves. Yen has rallied substantially.Markets are pricing in much more rate cutting from the Federal Reserve. The two year yield has fallen substantially.While the market had been pricing in a BOJ tightening, the real surprise has been weaker employment numbers out of the US. Non Farm Payrolls was surprisingly weak. Weak is 114k - which is actually sort of in line...
2024-08-0206 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS IT TIME? PART IIThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comOnly a week ago I asked if it was time to bet on deflation again? As I pointed out, the biggest lead on inflation and deflation has been JGBs, which correctly pointed to deflation from 1990s onwards, and correctly pointed to inflation from 2020 onwards. With JGB yields at highs, I was of the view inflation was still the go. Recent moves have seen JGB yields fall, but still in an uptrend I think.
2024-08-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsJULY PORTFOLIO REVIEWThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI spent most of July on the road in Europe. 11 days in Sweden, karting with my oldest son and then 9 days in Portugal with the entire family on a bit of rest and recreation. I try and avoid coffee when I am on holidays, and I find it allows me to think more clearly, if more slowly.Markets are heavily politicised these days, in both that government policy affects markets, and that the dominant companies in markets are affecting...
2024-08-0100 min
Real Estate Junkies: Coast 2 Coast10 | Navigating Real Estate Success with John Clark: Insights from Wicked Smart CommunitySend us a textJoin co-hosts Rusty Ham and Steve as they dive deep into the real estate journey of special guest John Clark from Waltham, Massachusetts. John shares his transition from a legal career to thriving in real estate, recounting his initial struggles, the support he received from the Wicked Smart community, and the creative strategies that helped him succeed.With anecdotes about overcoming fears, systematizing dials, and the value of community support, this episode offers invaluable insights for aspiring real estate professionals. Discover how mentorship, mindset, and relentless effort can transform your real...
2024-07-3130 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS IT TIME?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comApologies for the radio silence, which has been driven by two things. First of all, US politics is in such a state of flux, it felt better to refrain from any “hot takes”. Secondly, I am currently in a state of caffeine detox. I drink a lot of coffee - the shirt I am wearing above was GIVEN to me by local coffee shop… so every year I take a week off coffee - which tends to lead to severe caffeine withdr...
2024-07-2600 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsUK IS A PRO-LABOUR TESTIn the UK, Labour has the opportunity to introduce pro-labour policies. Given that the election was more about the rejection of the Tories than embrace of Labour, the new government should be under real pressure to deliver results in its 5 year term. If we assume a “neo-con” policy like the US is not possible in the UK, then what should we expect? Labour winning the election has been widely expected, so unlike with Brexit or Trump’s election in 2016, there were no wild gyrations in bond or currency markets. But Labour does have some clear policy objectives that it needs...
2024-07-1707 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsNEO-CON VS PRO-LABOURThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI am big believer in developing a theory on assets have traded - particularly when they trade in a way that surprises you. A good theory should produce forecasts than you can then apply. My first theory was “Japan as Saudi Arabia of savings theory” which basically showed that Japan had all this capital, and wherever it invested wold boom, and when it pulled its capital it went bust. This worked well with Asian Financial Crisis, Dot Com Bust and GFC - ba...
2024-07-1200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONALThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI was first interested in Restaurant Brands International (QSR US) when a huge disconnect opened up between its listed subsidiaries and the parent company. The listed Brazilian operator of Burger King restaurants (Zampa) is down 90% over the last 5 years, while QSR is flat.With Bill Ackman being a big owner of QSR US, and announcing a stake sale, I thought I would have another look. QSR gets most of its sales from Burger King, particularly in international sales, but...
2024-07-0300 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT WOULD SOROS DO?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been thinking about the portfolio a lot recently. One reason is that I have been calling for higher inflation for a long time, and put a range of “inflationary"“ trades on - various long commodity trades, as well as long banks, while putting a range of short short interest rates sensitive trades on. The idea was to diversify away from the core GLD/TLT trade - but rather than diversify, I was getting what fund managers call “di-worse-ify”. If I had to...
2024-07-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHY IS THE FRENCH ELECTION SO BAD FOR BONDS?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comMy gut instinct for the last few years is that you want nothing to do with bonds. This has been correct. And just as the lead market for the bond bull market was Japan, it has been the lead market for the bond bear market. And Japanese 30 year yields continue to say bear market to me.I see plenty of analysis of why now is a good time to buy bonds, and how interest rates are going to get...
2024-06-2600 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsSHOW ME THE MONEY!I will admit, I have only started taking a close interest in politics in recent years. Like many of the “elite” I was shocked by the Brexit vote, and the election of Trump. But having spent a few years reading and thinking about politics, every election this year has conformed to exactly the same message - “show me the money”. The market and the Economist where surprised by recent election results in Mexico, France and India. Working on the received wisdom, of full employment and strong stock markets, France and India should have returned strong pro-government results, and yet...
2024-06-1406 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHY DOES GLD/TLT STILL WORK?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comBack when I first started writing this substack, I was greatly influenced by the idea of systemic food inflation leading to rising wages and rising interest rates. The key driver was that China was no longer self sufficient in grain due to structural shortage of land and labour. It suddenly became the world’s biggest importer of corn, and has remained so.One trade that I thought would capture this shift was a long gold/short treasury tr...
2024-06-1200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsYOU CAN CHOOSE WHO YOU LOVE BUT NOT HOW YOU ARE LOVEDThe other day I saw my wife had this photo on her lock screen. I asked her why she had this photo - the double chin makes me look terrible in this photo in my view. She replied, “Oh no - this is a wonderful photo - it sums up all the things I love about you.” This was not the only photo that we had disagreed about for the same reason recently. I wondered why our views differed so much. I gave it some thought - and the answer is that you can choose who you love but you...
2024-06-1006 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHINKING ABOUT BILL ACKMANI used to get asked by young fund managers for advice in making it in the hedge fund industry. I always gave the same advice. There are two key jobs, making money, and raising money. Of the two, the second is the most important. Most young managers think of themselves as proto-Warren Buffett’s, and just want to focus on investing. I then point out, as great as an investor that Warren Buffett is, he also solved the raising capital part of the business by buying an insurance company, and investing “the float”. Without this captive capital base, Berkshire Hathaw...
2024-06-0408 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS THE S&P THE RISK FREE ASSET?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI made some mid-month changes to the portfolio, which generally worked I think. I plan to quickly go over the portfolio performance, and then look at peculiar idea, that the S&P 500 is the risk free asset, rather than treasuries. It makes recent market performance easier to understand.
2024-06-0300 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHEN IS THE BEAR MARKET?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been contemplating the nature of American capitalism for a while now. To my mind, “the rules” that market used to work with have changed. Industrial policy, capital controls, and big government are all okay, after being verboten for many years. But the thing is, that even though all these rules have now being broken, as long as American capitalism is creating wealth, then all is good. S&P 500 at all time highs suggests to me that these policies will cont...
2024-05-2400 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT IS MY SUBCONSCIOUS TRYING TO ME?They say experience is good, but personally if I could trade experience for youthful dynamism, I would take that trade everyday. Sadly, its not, so we are going to have to settle for experience. And one thing experience has taught me, is that when your subconscious is not settled, then you need to take a beat and try and work out what is wrong. This also works the other way too. I think my subconscious knew that my friend, Michelle, would make a great wife, but it took a long time for my conscious self to catch up.
2024-05-1409 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPORTFOLIO UPDATEThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comUsually I like to make changes at the end of the month, as that just makes everything easier - but I fell motivated to make some mid-month changes. As a rule, if a long or short position is bothering me, then it means its either wrong, or its too big. In this case I think I might just be wrong.
2024-05-1307 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT IF PRIVATE EQUITISATION IS NOT CYCLICAL?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have always thought of private equity as a cyclical asset class. There was the famous RJR Nabisco LBO that failed, and formed the basis of the 1989 book, Barbarians At The Gate. I profitably shorted Blackstone soon after its IPO, as the end of the credit cycle appeared. My negative view on private equity has also been reinforced by the usual dire performance of private equity assets that return to public market, either as an IPO, or as a...
2024-05-1003 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsAPRIL NEWSLETTER AND REVIEWThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comApril saw GLD/TLT surge to new cycle highs, which was very pleasing. We also saw general weakness in equities, which was very pleasing. Peak outperformance had the portfolio up 5% with markets off 5%, but by the end of the month the portfolio had moved back to flat, with markets up around 4%. I have started to make some changes to the portfolio.
2024-05-0100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT DOES ANZAC DAY MEAN?Back in World War I, the Australian and New Zealand Army Corp (ANZAC) were sent off to fight the Turks in what is known at the Gallipoli campaign. My great grandfather, Lt Col Hubert Harris (above) fought and died and at Gallipoli. He bled out after a Turkish sniper shot down a sniper hole built into the ANZAC trenches from a distance of 20 metres (hard to believe that they were that accurate - but apparently they were). He remains buried at Gallipoli. To cut a long story short, the landings did not go well, many Australians and New Zealanders...
2024-04-2308 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsYOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH - PART IIThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIt is so common in life that dealing with the truth is far harder than just pretending it does not exist. Politically, so many people wonder why people cannot except the truth of climate change, or Brexit or Trump. It is far easier, to accept alternative answers that don’t require you to do anything. Climate change is a hoax, Brexit and Trump lied and are not deserving on their democratic mandates are examples of such thinking.For me, I...
2024-04-2201 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPRECIOUS METALS ADDENDUMIn my recent post, I made fun of the macro community, as the old correlation of gold/copper and US ten year treasury yields had broken down.However, I would be remiss to not point out that the copper/gold ratio still works quite well when we replace US 10 year with China 10 year bond yield.And Chinese yields are so low as the domestic property market has been going through a huge slowdown.If you think China is getting close to cyclical turn, then industrial commodities potentially offer huge upside. I personally have...
2024-04-1701 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT GOLD, REAL RATES AND GOLD MINERS ARE ALL TELLING YOUIn macro world, there seems to some existential angst as to why gold is performing so well in a rising real rate environment. Generally speaking, positive real rates, and in particular moving from negative to positive real rates has been negative for gold.This mystery is compounded by the strength of the dollar. Rising real rates in the US should drive a strong dollar, but also a weak gold price according to theory. In this case gold seems to be acting odd.Compounding the pain of macro strategists, gold miners have massively underperformed the price...
2024-04-1108 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsRUSSELL CLARK - MUSEUM PIECEI have just turned 50, so decided to hand myself into the Louvre as a museum piece. They told me to “Get Stuffed”, so a taxidermist has been booked. With the end close than the beginning I thought I would reflect on a few learnings from my life so far, and how that reflects on my decision to start a new fund.* Financial markets and politics love extremes - the ACTUAL truth is always somewhere in between.Financial markets and politics are often binary systems - buy or sell, yes or no, and lend them...
2024-04-1014 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsMARCH NEWSLETTER AND REVIEWThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe key trade of GLD/TLT returned to its highs seen in September last year, when I decided to launch a model portfolio.However, unlike in September when TLT weakness was the driver, this month it has been GLD taking out new highs.
2024-04-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS LONG YEN THE NEW WIDOWMAKER?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comYen is cheap. In every possible way I look at currencies - Yen comes up as cheap. Using BIS data on real effective terms it is back at 1970s levels.I also know two very successful fund managers who are openly long Yen. And they get very little push back on this view. The problem with this view is that it reminds me so much of the bearish JGB views I heard back in the 1990s. It...
2024-03-2800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE BOJ AS A KEIRESTUOne of the factors that was identified as a cause of the Japanese bubble economy was the intercompany dealings of Japanese conglomerates - keiretsu (系列). Broadly speaking, they were groups of companies, often centred around banks, that helped each other out, and often had cross shareholdings in each other. Korean chaebol (재벌) are very similar. Keiretsu banks often lent to other keiretsu members at favourable rates. There was also a great deal of cross shareholder ownership, which protected control, and reduced the amount of capital needed in these businesses. When the Plaza accord led the Yen to soar, BOJ stimulated to offset t...
2024-03-0510 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsFEBRUARY NEWSLETTER AND REVIEWThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe key trade of GLD/TLT continues to recover from the sell off seen in later 2023. And key lead indicator on treasuries, 30 year JGBs, still points to higher treasury yields.But elsewhere in markets, liquidity still reigns supreme.
2024-03-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT IS THE TRUE MEANING OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE?Many days I still feel like a young man, with much to learn. But then other times, when I muse on the changes that I have seen and lived through, I realise I am more likely the adult in the room. One thing I love about the UK is that its politics is so open and competitive, but also winner takes all. If you capture the House of Commons, you can pretty much do whatever you want (see Boris Johnson). Looking at announced Labour Policies, it plans to rejuvenate the NHS (largest employer in the UK), build 1.5m homes...
2024-02-2907 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsBEAR P0£NThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comFor a number of reasons, I was reminded of 1999. One of my tells for a bear market is when advertising on the Tube in London starts going out of date. It means marketing budgets are being cut. And in late February, I can still plenty of Christmas ads at tube stations. But even more than that has been the stark contrast between a surging US economy and the weakness in China and the rest of Asia. Value investors have constantly been...
2024-02-2800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHOUGHTS ON THE BOJ - AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR MY INVESTMENT STRATEGYThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comJapan has and remains fascinating. For years economists and hedge funds always assumed the yen would collapse, and JGBs were a short. This was based on the history of every other country that had run large fiscal deficits and a central bank that kept interest rates very low. My original thoughts on this was that “free markets” were keeping the Yen strong, and JGB yields low. By free markets I meant that without inflation, Japan should have a st...
2024-02-2100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS JAPAN THAT IMPORTANT? PART TWOIt is fairly widely known that a weak USD dollar tends to be good for commodities and for emerging markets in general. I always thought the transfer mechanism was two pronged. One, US dollar debts become much easier to service, improving credit conditions. And secondly, a weak dollar encourages capital flows out of the US and into carry trades, which also improves capital flows. South Korea has always been a good indicator of this strong currency good, weak currency bad type of scenario. Against the US dollar, the Asian Financial Crisis and GFC are very clear periods of a...
2024-02-1410 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS JAPAN REALLY THAT IMPORTANT?Japan is an unusual country. For decades it defied economic analysis. As Simon Kuznets said, there are four types of countries: developed, undeveloped, Japan and Argentina. And when I started working in finance, Japan was also given special treatment. The Japanese macroeconomic numbers of a large fiscal deficit combined with low interest rates should mean the Yen collapses, and inflation should be running rampant, which lead many funds to short JGBS - a trade that became the original “widowmaker” trade. I spent a lot of time trying to come up with a more “holistic” model of the world, t...
2024-02-1310 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHY ARE STRONG STOCK MARKETS POLITICALLY UNPOPULAR?One of the reasons for an “independent” central bank was the idea that they would not juice up the economy or the stock market to the benefit of incumbent politicians. The reason for this was from the 1970s, when Nixon put huge pressure on the Federal Reserve to make sure the economy was firing. Under the first Trump administration between various other tweets on tariffs and wall building, President Trump was never shy about crowing about the performance of the stock market under his watch. Despite a very good stock market, President Trump lost his re-election bid.To b...
2024-02-0509 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIF SEMIS ARE THE NEW OIL, HOW HIGH COULD THEY GO?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have pushing the idea of long Gold/short treasuries to capture a shift to “pro-labour” policies. Like a lot of investment ideas, it is easier to promote this idea as I am looking at the end game of the pro-labour period from 1945 to 1980, which also saw gold massively outperform treasuries. Basically I am saying that we are going to see a repeat of below.
2024-02-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT'S GOING ON WITH FINANCE UNEMPLOYMENT?In January I spent two weeks in Australia - catching up with friends and family. As has become the norm, everywhere seems to be very busy, and no signs of a slowdown anywhere. But among this general bullishness, it was noticeable that friends trying to get jobs in finance were really struggling to find a job. I have only really looked for job in finance twice. First, as someone who was hired as a graduate trainee in 1999, and then as an emerging markets analyst in 2002. Talking to people the hiring vibe was closer to 2002 than 1999. But when I look...
2024-02-0205 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsJANUARY NEWSLETTER AND REVIEWThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comGENERAL THOUGHTSWhen I started thinking about a pro-labour shift in politics, I tried to focus on areas where markets would be surprised. There are many, but in essence growth tends to surprise to the upside, demand is good, but financial assets are weaker than expected. I expected cash and commodities to perform well, long bonds poorly, and equities to be flat to weak.
2024-02-0100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsUH OH... HAVE I BECOME THE NEW DENNIS GARTMAN/FRED HICKEY?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comBefore substack, and even before the internet, fund managers have always liked to read newsletters. Perhaps the two most famous of these old school newsletter writers were Dennis Gartman and Fred Hickey. Gartman wrote the Gartman Letter, and Fred Hickey writes the High Tech Strategist. I never subscribed to the Gartman Letter, but it was not difficult to get a copy, and Gartman basically lived on CNBC, so his opinions were easy to find. Perhaps Gartman’s greatest contribution to finance wa...
2024-01-2500 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsDO WE NEED A "PRO-LABOUR/COLD WAR" MODEL?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe pro-labour model is based on the idea that governments are moving away from pro-business policies to pro-labour polices. This is driven by an electorate that is increasingly disillusioned by pro-capital policies and voting for populist politicians and ideas. At its simplest, its means that demand is very strong, inflation is structurally higher, and central banks are under constant pressure to keep interest rates high. This led me to be naturally long gold and short treasuries (GLD/TLT). My...
2024-01-2300 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE BUSINESS STRATEGY IS THE INVESTMENT STRATEGYThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThis is the second post on what I would call investment strategy documents for my idea of a fund. It outlines the business case for what I am thinking of doing. Back when I started in finance in 2000, asset management was a backwater. The area that everyone wanted to be in was investment banking and trading. Hedge funds existed, and had prospered to a degree during the Asian financial crisis, but had gotten severely burnt in the defence of the Hong...
2024-01-1000 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsINVESTMENT STRATEGYThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comA few months ago I floated the idea of launching a fund. I have had discussions with potential investors and with potential firms to host the fund. Typically I have been talking to institutions that I have had previous dealings with, so have not bothered to produce a strategy document as there has been no need. Recently I have started talking to an institution that I have not dealt with before, and they asked for a strategy document. Given...
2024-01-0700 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsDECEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIOThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIn hindsight, I was plainly too keen to add to the core trade of GLD/TLT at the beginning of the month. The correction at that point had only moved to 50 DMA. December has seen it reverse further back to the 200 DMA.The problem has been on the TLT side of the trade. Bonds everywhere have rallied at expectations of rate cuts have been priced in. The US 2 year yield shows clearly the change in view.
2024-01-0100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsARTIFICIAL SCARCITY AND MODERN MARKETSThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comOne of the features of “modern” (read post GFC) markets is that volumes traded tend to be less even as markets rise. In the UK, mortgage approvals have collapsed back to close to GFC levels, after never really getting back to pre-GFC levels.
2023-12-2100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS BOND BEAR MARKET REALLY OVER?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been bearish on TLT for a while now. But since October it has had a big bounce, but still in a downtrend in my view.
2023-12-1100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT HAVE I LEARNED?The basic view I have is a world that is moving pro-labour and away from capital friendly policies. De-globalisation, anti-immigration, anti-free market are all pro-labour policies in my view. One observation is that rapidly rising food prices tend to cause political change. US food prices remained under control until 1970s. This caused a big political change from the 1980s onwards. We seem to have entered a new era of rising food prices.To capture the change, I have a a core trade that is long gold, short treasury trade. This has worked well. The idea is that...
2023-12-0414 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsNOVEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIOThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI will do a more in-depth post about markets next week - in particular what I have gotten right and wrong in 2023. In this post I will talk about the portfolio performance in November, changes I have made to the portfolio, and general thoughts on the market.
2023-12-0100 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPRO-LABOUR POLITICS AT WORKOne of the core ideas of a pro-labour world is that governments are now in the position to raise real wages if they so choose. Tariffs, protectionist policies, capital controls, are all back on the policy table. Both China and the US use these policies, so there is no reason why anyone else cannot. In December 2018, Mexico elected Andrés Manuel López Obrador as president. The change in real wages in Mexico under his presidency has been staggering.Without question Mexico has benefited from the US-China trade war. Mexican exports have surged since Covid.De...
2023-11-2109 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTLT - THE NEW WIDOWMAKEROne of the quiet joys of writing a newsletter is that everyone knows what you are thinking so without any encouragement on my part, I am often told how I am wrong. The trades that I am “wrong” on, tend to be the best ones. And of late, I seem to be inundated with people telling me how wrong I am on bonds. Like the grim reaper, the solemnly tell me the short bond trade is done - and my demise is imminent. Of course many of these same people were screaming that JGBs were shorts through the 1990s and...
2023-11-1609 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION - SHOULD I GET RID OF THE LONG BOOK?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comOne of the great things about money is that is really focuses the mind. Now that I am thinking of launching a fund again, I am thinking deeply about the two problems that all fund managers have to deal with. How to make money, and how to raise money. Young and naïve fund managers often have a belief that as long as they make money, then they will be able to raise money. Don’t get me wrong, making money is...
2023-11-1400 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION : WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe portfolio has been build around the idea of a political shift to favour pro-labour policies. There are numerous repercussions in the investment world, and as it is based on politics, is subject to change. The essential idea is that move to pro-labour policies would mean that inflation would be endemic, and that unless central banks raised rates, inflation would take off. The trade I like to represent this trade off most was long gold/short long dated treasuries. The thing...
2023-11-0800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS SHORT TLT DONE? PART TWOEarly October saw a big spike in GLD/TLT which moved it a long way from its moving averages. Over the last week or so, it has come back to a degree, mainly through a rally in TLT.Just looking at TLT US, a technical minded trader may see TLT rallying back to it 200 moving day average (MDA), which would be around 99. That would another 13% from here and 20% from its low.What are the bond bulls looking at? Well the rally in TLT is easy to understand. The 2 year treasury yield is indicating that the...
2023-11-0612 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHOUGHTS ON SHORT SELLINGThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been thinking more about individual stocks as I gear up to publish a model portfolio in November. Since I started publishing this substack, I have been mainly focused on trying to understand why macro does not work the same way. The old rules of macro were most pure in currency markets, but do not really work anymore. As I want to talk about stocks, rather than macro I will just show one example. For me in currency markets, carry...
2023-10-3000 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT IS GOING ON IN CRYPTO?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIn thinking about portfolio construction, I want to stay close to my core theme of pro-labour politics. The core investment idea is that real assets rise with wages, while financial assets are suppressed to try and keep inflation under control and allow real wages to rise. The key trade has been long GLD (gold) and short TLT (long dated treasuries). It has been good so far.One of the questions I have been asking myself is whether...
2023-10-2400 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS SHORT TLT DONE?The idea I have been pushing for awhile now is long GLD/short TLT to capture the move in politics to pro-labour. It has been working well, with a recent spike.Without question the short TLT leg of the idea has been the big winner. Falling from 160 to 83 today.Even as it has fallen, “investors” have been piling into TLT. Shares outstanding has more than quadrupled since 2022.Over the same period, short interest has remained subdued, so losses to owners of TLT have been very large with very little short seller gains! The midd...
2023-10-2308 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHINKING ABOUT PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTIONThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comAs laid out in a recent post, I think I see an opportunity for a fund. As explained in many posts, I see politics moving pro-labour and away from pro-capital. This makes me bullish on wages and real assets, and bearish on financial assets. The simplest (and so far best) way to express this has been long GLD, short TLT. If central banks shy away from tight monetary policy, then I expect assets like gold to do well, and long dated...
2023-10-2000 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsJUNK JUNK FOOD?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comLast time I talked about McDonalds was to cover my short positions. I have talked about the fast food chains at length, as they represent the pinnacle of pro-capital policies in many ways. All the risk is now driven down to franchisees now, while the franchisor collects a royalty no matter the profits of the franchisee. You can read more here and here. Having been short McDonalds for a while, I took the the short off in June. As a number...
2023-10-1800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsCUTTING THROUGH THE MACRO BABBLE - ADDENDUMThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe Hamas attack on Israel creates a level of geo-political uncertainty. The most concrete example was the 4% rally in the oil price.Theoretically you would also think VIX would spike. War and potential for a spike in the oil prices is bad no? You would be wrong. VIX ended Monday close to where it was on Friday.Why no fear?
2023-10-1000 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsCUTTING THROUGH THE MACRO BABBLESo the trade I have been recommending for a while now is long GLD/Short TLT. It has been trading great, and I suspect it will continue to trade great.Now typically in fund management, managers and allocators rely heavily on back testing as a way of working out the riskiness of a trade. This back testing would currently be suggesting that either the dollar is too strong, or bonds are oversold (which is exactly what the macro community is suggesting) The dollar appreciation from 2001 to 2015 coincided with GLD/TLT underperforming.Separating out the performance...
2023-10-0912 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE THREE PROFIT CENTRES OF SHORT SELLING - UPDATEAs explained in a post from a year ago - there are three profit centres to short selling. Capital gains, carry and currency. Capital gains is the easiest to understand, and strangely the least profitable of the three centres. Why least profitable? In my experience crowded shorts tend to visit huge losses on short sellers. GME and AMC are recent examples, but for many years Tesla was the biggest short in the market. These shorts suffered significant capital losses. As a rule, I avoided crowded shorts, which I define as a short with a borrow cost over 2...
2023-10-0609 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPRO-LABOUR SHIFT AND JAPANESE BANKSThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comOne of the first things I learnt when I started in the fund management industry was that Japanese banks were where value investors went to die. After a huge bull market in the 1980s, that made Japanese banks the most valuable in the world, a long drawn out bear market has ensued. Having been involved in the 2003 to 2006 bull market in Japanese banks, I have a profound respect for their ability to indicate deflationary turns in markets. The most...
2023-10-0200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsSHOULD I SHORT PRIVATE EQUITY?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comWhen I first outlined my view on a shift to a pro-labour world, I saw private equity as a structural short. One of my favourites places to short were companies recently listed by private equity firms. They were almost always starved of capital investment, and typically laden with debt. I saw the rise of interest rates, pressure on capital markets and reduced exits as kryptonite to these businesses. While they were weak in 2022, like broader markets, they have bounced in 2023.
2023-09-2900 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT TO SHORT?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comBack when I was managing money, I was told that my fund was described as a macro fun that uses single stocks to express an opinion. Macro funds tend to use stock indices, bond and commodity futures to express views, but I found it more efficient to use single stocks. Indices are designed to go up, and can never go to zero, so are an inefficient product for bearish bets. Individual stocks can go to zero, so are far better for...
2023-09-2700 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsHAS THE FED F&@KED UP?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comHas the Federal Reserve fucked up? Markets were a bit unsure of what the decisions would be from the Federal Reserve. Looking at monetary policy history, they would have seemed wise to pause interest rates increases. Looking at the US bond market, with it deeply inverted, this has typically been seen as a sign of “over-tightening” by the Federal Reserve. The 2 year to 10 year spread is its most negative since the 1970s, and previous bouts of yield inversion have preceded financial prob...
2023-09-2200 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsAM I WRONG ABOUT BONDS?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIn my fiftieth year on this planet, I can confirm that old habits die hard. For years my investment process always started with macro, before I would think about anything else. And even though I “hate” bonds, even I have to admit recent macro data from the US makes me think that maybe bonds are a buy here.
2023-08-3000 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPRO-LABOUR IS INFLATIONARY; ANTI-CAPITAL POLICIES ARE DEFLATIONARYAs the Western world deals with uncomfortably high inflation, China has been cruising along at inflation levels that could even be considered too low. Its latest print it only just above zero. In recent years, US CPI has been above China - allowing the US economy to grow much faster than China in nominal terms.Almost all market participants have been surprised by the lack of a “reopening” trade in China - that is surging demand that pushes up the price of everything. On a pure revenge travel style Covid boost, we can see that flights to Maca...
2023-06-2607 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIF I SEEM CONFUSED, ITS BECAUSE THE POLITICS IS CONFUSINGThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comWhen I listen to market commentary, you would think strong dollar was “the macro trade” of the day. Chinese Yuan has breached 7 - and the world is about to end - again. And yet, for me strong dollar is strangely present in the places it shouldn’t be, and totally absent in place where it should be. Commodity prices have been weak this year, and in a strong dollar/weak commodity environment, shorting Mexican Peso historically has been a no brainer. Not th...
2023-06-0101 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsSHOULD WE BE LONG TLT AND SHORT GLD?When Ben Bernanke and the other central bankers started talking about QE after the GFC - I really wondered why they thought it was a good idea. The long experience of Japan showed that it did nothing for creating inflation, and in my mind made things worse. My understanding of boom and busts in a free market capitalist world was that capital flows would create a boom, and then its reversal a bust. Looking at Japan, we can see the how flows in the 1980s, followed by either contraction or stagnation. All data taken from BIS locational banking statistics...
2023-05-2309 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsMOONSHOT - "ispace" A JAPAN LISTED MOON PLAYThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIn a recent post I recommended reading the Economist backwards. I pointed out that the science and technology section often had good (or interesting) investment ideas. A recent article talked about ispace - a recently listed company that just saw its moon lander crash while trying to land on the moon. As most of its material is in Japanese I have put some English analysis below.
2023-05-0900 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS CHINA WINNING? PART IIThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comHow do you stop a country from developing? That is the question that is confronting US policy makers. At the moment, the US is adopting a number of policies including stopping technology transfers, tariffs and other regulatory barriers. The US has used this type of policy against North Korea, Cuba Venezuela and Iran, and these policies have indeed l…
2023-04-2800 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsARE PRO-LABOUR POLICIES THE END OF EMERGING MARKET INVESTING?This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comEmerging market investing (at least on the long side) always seems pretty easy. It almost always centres on some sort of “catch up” trade. A classic example is the auto market, where developed markets will have somewhere between 400 to 800 cars per thousand people, and an analysis will look at an emerging market an assume that it will catch up in 20 years, and then model a likely growth potential. A chart like below would be a classic starting point - showing auto owne...
2023-04-2600 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT TO DO ABOUT INDIA - PART IIIn my first post, “What To Do About India?” On January 4th of this year, I highlighted that India was severely overrepresented in the richest people in the world list, AND, that their wealth relative to the size of the Indian economy really stood them out as the sort of people that should suffer in a swing away from pro-capital to pro labour policies. I reproduce the original table. At the time, I suggested that the Adani net worth really looked excessive. A few weeks later, Hindenburg Research published a note, that saw a large decline in some of the...
2023-04-2209 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS THE ECONOMIST A RELIABLE CONTRA?(Housekeeping - I post about my son’s karting exploits here now : Jarrett Clark Racing please subscribe if you are interested)One of the biggest headwinds the hedge fund and alternative industry has faced in the last few years has been the consistent outperformance of the US, and particularly large cap stocks. Who needs hedge funds, when you have FANG, or SPY? Why pay fees to an investment manager when you can buy the most liquid assets on the planet for virtually nothing? For me, my working assumption was that US stocks could go up forever, but on...
2023-04-1810 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsTHE SHALE PATCH AND OIL PRICESThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been fascinated by the US shale oil and gas industry for years now. It is almost a perfect example of the US economic model. First, a new technology is invented, and then secondly there is a huge rush of capital and participants all seeking to grow as fast as possible (land grab), and then there is the fall out as prices crash, and eventual consolidation. But even today, as the industry has consolidated, I still struggle to...
2023-04-1700 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsFOOD INFLATION - HAVE I BEEN TOO “WESTERN” IN MY ANALYSIS?My focus on food inflation has been looking at the connections between pork prices and grain prices, as well as natural gas prices and fertiliser costs. The reality of both these areas is that recent price action has been more deflationary than inflationary. Chinese pork prices have fallen back to levels that were seen before the problems with African Swine Flu.Fertiliser prices have also fallen back from the levels seen during the initial stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.With pork prices and fertiliser prices falling back, upward pressure on grain prices should ha...
2023-04-1308 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHAT’S THE DEAL WITH MCDONALDS?I am going to talk about McDonald’s which I thought looked a good short about 10% lower than where it is today. But before that, just a quick explanation for the slightly different format. I am about to enter the karting season, which means I will be on the road with my oldest son a lot more. It will be much easier for me to do this on an iPad rather than lugging my laptop everywhere. So this is my first effort to see if I can produce a decent post via laptop and mobile exclusively. Please do comment on...
2023-04-0509 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsBUY THE DIP OR SELL THE RIP - PART 2This was published last week - but now getting out of date - so moving it to freeThe S&P 500 has bounced and VIX has dropped back to 20 over the last week.Unusually, this rip higher in equities has not coincided with a bounce in high yield bonds (HYG is a high yield bond ETF).Also the spread between spot VIX and 6 month generic VIX (UX6) has moved back to close to 5, suggesting VIX is too low. The combination of very low VIX and not confirmation from HYG still suggests selling the...
2022-02-1006 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsMORTGAGE RATES AND THE US ECONOMIC CYCLEAs everyone should know, the US has a very unusual mortgage system. I am not going to go into the details, but the key upshot of this mortgage system is that it is relative easily for homeowners with mortgages to refinance when long term interest rates fall. Offered rates on mortgages went as high at 18% under Volker, and fell below 3% under Powell recently.Since 1982, the average rate on outstanding mortgages has rarely risen, and when it has done so, it has been for brief periods. Periods of offered mortgage rates above outstanding rates have been associated with...
2022-02-0712 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS THIS AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR SEMICONDUCTORS?It is hard to overstate the awesomeness of the bull market in semiconductors. Using the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX Index) as proxy, the semiconductor industry has appreciated over 200% from the Covid low.Unlike some other tech industries, semiconductors are a Capex heavy industry. During downturns, it tends to underperform dramatically, and conversely in upturns it outperforms dramatically. If we look at the performance of the SOX Index relative to the Nasdaq it outperformed in 1998 to 2001 during the dotcom bubble, and again from from 2012 onwards.Finding a real world indicator of this not very...
2022-02-0407 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsBUY THE DIP OR SELL THE RIP?Since 2016, it has generally made sense to buy the dip. For dip buyers, a VIX around 30 has proved to be a good dip buying opportunity, which is roughly where VIX is today.However, it has also tend to make sense to buy equities when the high yield (junk bond) market is distressed. Even with the recent sell off in high yield, it is still at levels far lower than seen in previous sell offs.One reason why the VIX and high yield are saying different things, is that long dated volatility has become much more...
2022-02-0304 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsSHORT CHANGED? RISK REWARD LOOKS POOR IN THE PAYMENT SECTORThe most dangerous place to be long invested is a cartel that is about to get disrupted. Payments, and fintech more broadly, seems a good place to look. Typically, a cartel member will have fantastic financial positions, and will generally be considered as either a “quality” or “compounder” stock. One recurring feature of investors in broken cartels is that they tend to buy all the way down as think they are buying at a discounted price. Payments strikes me as area full of competition and ready for disruption.As mentioned in my post “Is the US taking on the Cre...
2022-01-2706 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsHOW HIGH CAN VIX GO?Typically, the spread on high yield bonds and VIX follow each other. Both are measures of risk or fear. The rise in VIX this year has not been accompanied by a widening in high yield spreads. This would place the S&P 500 in a buying opportunity scenario as seen in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis, and in XIV induced sell off in early 2018.Historically speaking, the VIX was purely a simple measure of implied volatility on near dated S&P options. The higher the VIX, the more traders believed that the S&P could be volatile. However...
2022-01-2509 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS IT TIME TO SHORT? PART TWOOn most measures market and macro indicators are at extremes. S&P 500 vs MSCI World captures the major extreme. US assets have massively outperformed, even more so than during the dot com bubble, which would mean a “reverting to normal” trade implies shorting US equities.When combined with my own preferred measure of extreme capital flows, net international investment position (NIIP), the US private sector has been at dot com extremes since 2016, and pushed beyond that level. (I separate out foreign reserve holding of US assets, as the private sector position has historically offered a better read on l...
2022-01-2410 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsIS TECH ON THE SLOPE OF HOPE OR CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY? (PODCAST & POST)Professional fund managers will often worry about whether they are on the slope of hope, or are climbing the wall of worry. The slope of hope refers to the awful position of being on the wrong side of the market, and holding on in the “hope” that your position will come good. The wall of worry is that you are worried markets might fall in value, but never do. Back in the early 2000s, you could only really guess by reading stock broker morning emails, and perhaps looking at other funds positioning. However the advent of ETFs have...
2022-01-1714 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsWHY IS SHORT SELLING SO HARD - PODCAST COMPANIONThis is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2022-01-1209 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsBITCOIN UPDATE 3 - PODCAST COMPANION This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2022-01-1003 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPODCAST COMPANION TO DIGITAL REAL ESTATE INVESTINGThis is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2021-12-2105 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPODCAST COMPANION TO IS CHINA WINNING OR LOSING THE CURRENCY WARSPlease do subscribe if you find this interesting - it motivates me to do more.Comments are welcome. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2021-11-2605 min
Capital Flows and Asset MarketsPODCAST COMPANION TO RETHINKING THE STAGFLATION OF 1970SThis is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.russell-clark.com/subscribe
2021-11-1905 min